The Brewers’ Keston Hiura Dilemma
Not long ago, the future looked bright for Keston Hiura and the Brewers. The former No. 9 overall draft pick (2017) had been a universally lauded top-25 prospect in the sport due to a high-probability hit tool that overshadowed concerns about his glovework. He breezed through the minors, torching opponents in Rookie ball, Class-A, High-A, Double-A and Triple-A before reaching the Majors in 2019 and erupting with a .303/.368/.570 batting line and 19 home runs in just 348 plate appearances at 22 years of age.
Hiura’s long-term position was something of an open question due to an elbow injury that required surgery in college and left questions about his arm strength even at second base. However, his bat was so advanced and his professional track record was so strong that it didn’t seem to matter much. That rookie production and his minor league track record suggested a player whose offensive profile would fit at any position on the diamond.
Granted, Hiura’s 30.7% strikeout rate as a rookie was a red flag, but strikeouts weren’t an issue at all until he reached Triple-A and the big leagues. There was reason to believe that with more experience, he could pare back on the swing-and-miss in his game. Further, given the 91.4 mph average exit velocity and 48.1% hard-hit rate he boasted that season, the impact when he did make contact was substantial. Even with a .402 BABIP pointing to some regression in the batting average department, Hiura looked the part of a slugger who could turn in an average or better batting average with plenty of power.
That now feels like a distant memory. In the three seasons since that time, Hiura hasn’t improved upon his strikeouts but rather seen the problem worsen. He fanned at a 34.6% clip in his sophomore season while posting a disappointing .212/.297/.410 line. Optimists could perhaps chalk that up to a relatively small sample (59 games) and the strangeness of the Covid-shortened 2020 season, but Hiura hit just .168/.256/.301 with an even worse 39.1% strikeout rate in 2021. His bottom-line results were better in 2022 — .226/.316/.449, 14 homers in 266 plate appearances — but Hiura punched out at a career-worst 41.7% rate last year.
Along the way, defensive metrics have regularly panned his abilities in the field. Defensive Runs Saved (-16), Ultimate Zone Rating (-14.1) and Outs Above Average (-12) all offer resoundingly negative reviews of his 1204 career innings at second base. Those metrics grade him as an average defender in 603 innings at first base. He’s also logged 40 innings in left field, but those days are likely behind him, given the number of interesting outfield prospects on the horizon in Milwaukee. Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer could all join Christian Yelich and the currently injured Tyrone Taylor in the 2023 outfield (as could third baseman/outfielder Brian Anderson). Uber-prospect Jackson Chourio is also rapidly approaching the Majors.
With Hiura’s struggles at second base and both Brice Turang and Luis Urias presenting options at the position, he’s unlikely to spend much more time there. A move to third base seems out of the question, given concerns about his arm strength. Both Urias and Anderson are more seasoned options at the hot corner anyhow. At first base, Hiura’s right-handed bat would seem like a natural pairing with lefty-swinging Rowdy Tellez … except for the fact that Hiura has pronounced reverse splits in his big league career. He’s batted .253/.332/.508 against righties but just .201/.283/.323 against lefties. Even that stout production against righties comes with a 34.5% punchout rate and .342 BABIP, suggesting regression could be in order.
As things stand, Hiura looks like a right-handed bench bat who’ll primarily work at first base and designated hitter, perhaps with very occasional appearances at second base and in left field. It’s a limited role to begin with, and it’s one that’s further complicated by a dismal showing this spring. Obviously, spring results don’t carry much weight, but hitting .174/.269/.217 with nine strikeouts in 26 plate appearances (34.6%) on the heels of a difficult three-year stretch in the big leagues doesn’t inspire much confidence in a rebound.
Furthermore, the Brewers have multiple right-handed first base options in camp who are simply outproducing Hiura this spring. Again, we’re dealing with the smallest of samples, so it’s all to be taken with a grain of salt, but each of Mike Brosseau, Owen Miller and non-roster invitee Luke Voit have posted better numbers thus far.
Brosseau hit .255/.344/.418 last season — comparable overall production to that of Hiura. He’s having a monster spring showing and can play first base, second base, third base and the outfield corners. Unlike Hiura, he’s a right-handed bat who has more traditional platoon splits: .276/.338/.485 versus lefties (127 wRC+), .207/.295/.356 versus righties (84 wRC+).
Miller, acquired from Cleveland over the winter, had a big start with the Guardians in 2022 before wilting and finishing out the year with a .243/.301/.351 showing. Hiura’s 115 wRC+ from last season handily tops Miller’s mark of 85, but Miller’s 19.8% strikeout rate is less than half that of Hiura’s 41.7%. Miller is more capable at second base and has even been working out in center field this spring.
Voit was also outproduced by Hiura at the big league level last year, but his 31.5% punchout rate — while still unsightly — still clocked in 10 percentage points lower. Voit has the bigger track record of MLB success, having led the Majors with a 22-homer showing back in 2020. Injuries have sapped his production since 2021.
Perhaps the biggest thing working in Hiura’s favor is that he’s out of minor league options. The Brewers can’t send him down without first exposing him to waivers. It’s possible that the $2.2MM salary to which he agreed when avoiding arbitration over the winter might allow him to pass through waivers unclaimed, but Milwaukee may not want to risk waiving a former top-10 pick and top-25 prospect only to watch him break out elsewhere. Brosseau and Miller both have a pair of minor league options remaining. Voit isn’t on the 40-man roster after signing a minor league deal, although he’ll reportedly have the chance to opt out of his deal tomorrow if he’s not added to the roster.
To Hiura’s credit, he’s a career .299/.400/.600 hitter in 508 Triple-A plate appearances. Even last year while striking out a nearly 42% clip, he averaged a whopping 91.7 mph off the bat and put 45.2% of the balls he hit into play at 95 mph or better. The quality of his contact is elite. The frequency of contact is among the worst in MLB. Hiura’s strikeout rate was the worst of the 317 batters who had at least 250 plate appearances. His 62.3% overall contact rate and 71.2% contact rate on pitches within the strike zone both ranked third-worst among that same group.
It all presents the Brewers with a quandary. They have at least three right-handed-hitting alternatives in camp who are capable of filling that first base/designated hitter spot. Brosseau has more defensive versatility, comparable recent production and is a more natural complement to lefties like Tellez and DH candidate Jesse Winker. Voit has similar power upside, although he’s limited to first base/DH and is two years removed from being a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat. Miller doesn’t have the same offensive upside but might have the most defensive versatility and definitely has the best bat-to-ball skills of this bunch.
Milwaukee has several alternatives to Hiura, whose trade value is minimal at this juncture in his career. There’s understandable risk in parting ways with him and allowing for the possibility of another club claiming him on waivers. But, at the same time, hanging onto him leaves the Brewers with limited roster flexibility while simply hoping for him to finally hone his approach at the plate after years of being unable to do so. And since he can’t be optioned to Triple-A, he’ll likely be left to do so in sparse playing opportunities since he currently projects as a bench piece in the event that he does crack the Opening Day roster.
It’s a tough spot for the Brewers to find themselves, and there’s likely no solution that’ll make them feel truly comfortable. Opening Day is just over two weeks away, however, so one way or another this will culminate in the team making a difficult choice.
Sorting Through The Brewers’ Outfield Options
The Brewers’ outfield is going to have a different flavor this year compared to 2022. Lorenzo Cain was released in June of last year, Andrew McCutchen reached free agency at season’s end and has since signed with the Pirates, while Hunter Renfroe was dealt to the Angels. That leaves room for some fresh faces to step up and take over. Let’s take a look at some of the options.
The Lock
Yelich, 31, is the one constant in the Milwaukee outfield picture, as his contract runs through 2028. He was one of the best players in the league in 2018 and 2019, winning National League Most Valuable Player in the first of those two seasons. In each of those two campaigns, he posted a wRC+ of 167 or higher, stole at least 22 bases and was worth 7.2 fWAR or more. His production has dropped off from those incredible heights over the past three years, but he’s still a solidly above-average player. Last year, he hit 14 home runs, stole 19 bases and walked in 13.1% of his plate appearances. That led to a .252/.355/.383 batting line, a 111 wRC+ and 2.3 fWAR.
His contract and past performance ensure that he’ll be part of the team on a regular basis, though he’ll likely serve as the designated hitter a few times, leaving plenty of outfield playing time for others. The last time he played the field in more than 115 games in a season was 2019. Since the club is invested in Yelich for the long haul, they’ll want to continue giving him the occasional breather to keep him healthy. Advanced defensive metrics are also split on his glovework, with Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both grading him as subpar last year and for his career, while Ultimate Zone Rating is much more encouraged.
Short-Term Vets
Winker, 29, is looking for a bounce back after a down season. In 2020 and 2021 with the Reds, he hit 36 home runs and produced a batting line of .292/.392/.552. Of all the hitters in the league with at least 650 plate appearances in that stretch, his 145 wRC+ was one of the 10 best. His work was even stronger with the platoon advantage, as he hit righties to the tune of .321/.417/.619 for a 167 wRC+, with only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper ahead of him in that department. He was traded to the Mariners prior to 2022 but struggled, hitting just 14 home runs last year and slashing .219/.344/.344 overall for a wRC+ of 109.
The Brewers acquired him as part of the Kolten Wong trade and will hope that a second change of scenery will suit Winker better than the first. It’s possible that injuries played a role as Winker required left knee surgery and a second procedure to address a bulging disc in his neck in October, though Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times has also reported that Winker’s work habits were a concern in Seattle. Regardless of the cause, Milwaukee is considered to be a much more favorable offensive environment than Seattle, which should work in his favor.
It remains to be seen how much the Brewers want to rely on Winker as a defender. His glovework has generally been rated poorly in his career and his numbers declined in that department in 2022. That could have been impacted by his health situation, but it’s possible he spends more time as the DH than in the field. However, as mentioned, Yelich will likely see his share of time in the DH slot as well, which will likely require Winker to spend at least a bit of time in the field. Winker is slated for free agency at season’s end.
Anderson, 30 in May, is also looking for a bounceback like Winker. From 2018-20, he hit 42 home runs for the Marlins and produced a line of .266/.350/.436, 115 wRC+. But the past two seasons have seen injuries diminish his playing time and performance. He got into just 165 total games over 2021 and 2022, hitting .233/.321/.359 for a 93 wRC+. He was eligible for one more pass through arbitration but the Marlins non-tendered him instead, with Anderson then signing a one-year deal with the Brewers.
Anderson has a bit more time at third base in his career than the outfield, and he told reporters last month he expects to see more time at third base than in the outfield. Milwaukee has Luis Urías to man the hot corner, through. That should leave Anderson in the mix for some outfield time, perhaps in a platoon role. He hits from the right side while Yelich and Winker both his left-handed, as do some of the guys below him on this list. Anderson has modest reverse splits for his career but did hit lefties better last year. Defensively, in over 1,500 outfield innings, Anderson has a -8 OAA but 8 DRS and 9.3 UZR. Even though he was hurt last year, his arm strength was still considered to be in the 99th percentile by Statcast, which could serve him well at third base or in the outfield.
Controllable Guys With Some Experience
Taylor, 29, has been largely a part-time option for the Brewers in recent years but took on a larger role last year as Cain was gradually phased out. He got into 120 games in 2022 and provided enough power to overcome some lackluster work at the plate otherwise. He struck out in 25.2% of his plate appearances and drew walks at just a 5.4% clip, but he did hit 17 long balls in 405 plate appearances. The result was a .233/.286/.442 batting line and a wRC+ of 102.
That work at the plate was just above average but he was much stronger on the other side of the ball. He played all three outfield positions but mostly in center, earning 6 DRS, 6 OAA and 2.0 UZR overall. It wasn’t a superstar performance but was competent in enough areas to produce 2.1 fWAR on the year. He’s set to reach arbitration for the first time after this year and can be retained through the 2026 campaign.
Mitchell, 24, was only drafted in 2020 but has already cracked the majors. He hit .287/.377/.426 between Double-A and Triple-A last year for a wRC+ of 118. He was selected to the major league club in August and was somehow even better in the big leagues. He hit .311/.373/.459 for a wRC+ of 136 in his first 68 MLB plate appearances. That’s a small sample size, however, and he did strike out 41.2% of the time. His defensive work was also graded as above average and he stole eight bases in 28 games.
Mitchell is a real wild card in this bunch since his 2023 could seemingly go in many different ways. On the one hand, he’s shown impressive results in all facets of the game and could be an immediate center field solution, pushing Taylor into a corner role. On the other hand, he has played less than 50 games above Double-A, the strikeouts are a real concern and his .548 batting average on balls in play will require serious regression.
Bolt, 29, and Harrison, 27, are in a similar boat to each other. They have both posted some solid minor league numbers but struggled in the majors. They’re now both out of options and had to settle for minor league deals for 2023. Bolt has a career batting line of .156/.205/.266 while Harrison’s is .176/.253/.294. They’ll likely only get a shot if the club gets bit by the injury bug a few times. Neither has reached arbitration yet and could theoretically be retained well into the future if they carve out a role.
Infielders That Can Play Some Outfield
Brice Turang/Mike Brosseau/Keston Hiura
With Wong having been traded to the Mariners, the second base job is up for grabs. Turang is one of the club’s top prospects and had a strong season in Triple-A last year, making him the favorite to take the job at the keystone despite not having cracked the majors yet. He played a bit of center field in Triple-A last year but is primarily a middle infielder. Brosseau can play all over and will be in a super utility role, allowing the club to pencil him in for any regular that requires an off-day. Hiura’s not quite as versatile, having only played first base, second base and left field in his big league career so far. He has tremendous power but has struck out in 36% of his plate appearances thus far, which will make it hard for him to carve out meaningful playing time.
On The Cusp Of A Debut
Perkins, 26, has long been considered a glove-first player but his bat seemingly took a step forward last year. Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A in the Yankees’ system, he stole 21 bases, hit 15 home runs and slashed .246/.357/.456 for a wRC+ of 120. He wasn’t added to that club’s roster at any point but the Brewers were intrigued enough to sign him onto their 40-man roster in November. He’ll likely be in the minors waiting for an opportunity to get called up, but he should have a decent floor thanks to his defense and speed. If the power he showed last year was a real development, he could be a well-rounded contributor.
Frelick, 23 in April, was the club’s first round pick in the 2021 draft but has quickly climbed the minor league ladder. Last year, he went from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A, hitting .331/.403/.480 for a wRC+ of 137, stealing 24 bases in the process. He doesn’t have much power but he’s very tough to strikeout, hitting 11 home runs last year but getting punched out at just an 11.2% rate. He’s still not on the 40-man roster but he’s considered one of the club’s top prospects and could force his way into the picture soon.
Wiemer, 24 this weekend, is the inverse of Frelick with big power but strikeout concerns. He hit 21 home runs last year between Double-A and Triple-A but went down on strikes 26.8% of the time. The result was a .256/.336/.465 batting line and a 109 wRC+. Despite being a power hitter, he has sneaky speed, swiping 31 bags last year. Like Frelick, he’s not on the 40-man yet but is on the doorstep. Both he and Frelick are considered capable of playing center field.
Top Prospect That Could Show Up This Year
Chourio is arguably the most exciting of this whole bunch but he might require patience since he’s very young, still over a month away from his 19th birthday. Last year, despite being just 18 years old, he went through Low-A, High-A and Double-A, hitting 20 home runs and stealing 16 bases in 99 games. His .288/.342/.538 batting line resulted in a 135 wRC+ and he got strong reviews for his glovework in center field.
Based on those excellent results at such a young age, he’s now considered the #3 prospect in the league by Baseball America, #8 by MLB Pipeline and #5 at FanGraphs. Given his youth and the fact that he’s played just six Double-A games, he won’t be a solution for the Brewers in the short term. Even reaching the big leagues by the end of the season seems like a long shot, but it probably can’t be completely discounted given the tremendous talent he seems to possess.
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There’s a ton of young talent here, including about a half dozen plausible center fielders. That puts the Brewers in great shape for the long haul, though it might take some time to allow these guys to sort themselves out. Chourio isn’t close, while Wiemer, Frelick and Perkins still haven’t made it to the majors. Mitchell had a great debut but will need a longer stress test. Taylor should be solid for now but isn’t elite at anything and could be surpassed by the younger guys in time. Winker and Anderson will both be free agents after this year but it seems like the club could easily replace them from within.
In the future, it seems likely the Brewers will not only have a strong outfield but will likely have enough options to make trades that address other areas of the roster. We already saw one such move when they included Esteury Ruiz in the three-team deal that netted them William Contreras as their potential catcher of the future. Not all young players end up panning out as hoped, of course, but the quality and quantity both appear to be strong here. If the club can keep pace with the Cardinals in the division this year and there’s enough development from this group, perhaps the Brewers could be key players for deadline deals to help them push to return to the postseason after missing last year for the first time since 2017.
Brewers Select Connor Sadzeck, Option Keston Hiura
The Brewers announced Wednesday that they’ve selected the contract of righty Connor Sadzeck from Triple-A Nashville. Infielder Keston Hiura has been optioned to Nashville to open a spot on the active roster. Milwaukee already had an open 40-man spot after designating Chi Chi Gonzalez for assignment last night.
A promising prospect with the Rangers earlier in his career, the now-30-year-old Sadzeck hasn’t appeared in the big leagues since 2019. Injuries, including Tommy John surgery early in his minor league career and a flexor mass issue back in 2019, have slowed the right-hander and kept him off the mound for significant portions of his career.
When healthy, Sadzeck is a legitimately intriguing arm who boasts a triple-digit heater, impressive strikeout abilities and, as is often the case for flamethrowers like this, some problematic command issues. He’s pitched just 33 Major League innings and boasts a 2.18 ERA but a concerning 17.4% walk rate in that time. Sadzeck is currently sporting an outstanding 0.86 ERA and 30.7% strikeout rate in 28 Triple-A innings, however, and this year’s 10.5% walk rate is more manageable than several of his prior seasons.
Hiura, meanwhile, has gone from former first-round pick and potential building block to a defensively limited slugger who’s regularly optioned by the Brewers. He’s hitting .238/.354/.451 this season — solid overall production — but has also yet to rectify the alarming strikeout issues that have plagued him throughout his career. Hiura has fanned in a sky-high 43.8% of his plate appearances this season, making even that modest .238 average unsustainable. (He’s currently benefitting from a .412 BABIP.)
That said, the decision to option Hiura couldn’t have been an easy one. He’s been on a tear at the plate over his past 12 games, batting .324/.435/.595 with three long balls and a double in that time. For now, Hiura will return to Nashville and continue working to improve his bat-to-ball skills and overall plate discipline. In all likelihood, he’ll get another big league look (or multiple looks) between now and season’s end.
Brewers Place Willy Adames On Injured List
The Brewers announced Wednesday that they’ve placed shortstop Willy Adames on the 10-day injured list with a high ankle sprain. The move is retroactive to May 16. Infielder Keston Hiura is up from Triple-A Nashville to take his spot on the roster.
Adames exited the Brewers’ game on Sunday after sustaining the injury when sliding into home plate on a sacrifice fly. The 26-year-old was in visible pain as he limped off the field after scoring the run. Manager Craig Counsell said after the game that X-rays came back negative, but president of baseball ops David Stearns acknowledged earlier this week that an IL stint was still on the table.
It’s been an odd start to the season for Adames, who a year ago this time served as a direly needed jolt to the Brewers lineup. Acquired from the Rays in a rare May trade of significance — J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen went back to Tampa Bay in what looks like a win-win deal — Adames erupted with a .285/.366/.521 slash in 413 plate appearances as a Brewer. He’s been a key to the offense again in 2022, as his nine home runs place him in a six-way tie for tops in the National League. At the same time, he’s also hitting just .208 with a lackluster .304 on-base percentage. Adames has been dogged by a .228 average on balls in play, however, and this year’s 11.5% walk rate is a career-high. Statcast pegs his “expected” batting average at a much healthier .261, and prior to the injury, it seemed safe to expect that Adames’ overall offensive output would tick upward as the season wears on.
Any change in fortune will now be on hold as Adames allows his ankle to mend, and his performance in the aftermath will of course be dependent on the extent to which the injury heals. In his absence, Milwaukee figures to turn to Luis Urias as the primary option at shortstop. It was Urias’ defensive shortcomings as a shortstop that prompted the Brewers to trade for Adames in the first place, but as a short-term option, they’ll live with any defensive woes in exchange for what has been a brilliant run at the plate. The 24-year-old Urias is hitting .298/.404/.457 in 13 games since being activated from the injured list himself.
As for Hiura, he’ll get his latest chance to deliver on the talent that made him the ninth overall selection in the 2017 draft. He delivered a mammoth .303/.368/.570 showing in 348 plate appearances as a 22-year-old rookie in 2019, but Hiura’s bat has gone backwards as his strikeout rate has mounted. Since that brilliant debut effort, he’s mustered just a .194/.282/.363 batting line while punching out in 37.5% of his plate appearances. That includes a ghastly 47.5% strikeout rate in 42 plate appearances this season, but Hiura has been on a tear since being sent down to Nashville, where he’s hit .421/.522/.895 with three homers and six strikeouts in 23 plate appearances (26.1% strikeout rate).
The Brewers have yet to provide a potential timetable for Adames’ return to the lineup, though presumably Counsell and/or Stearns will have more information prior to today’s afternoon tilt against the Rays.
Brewers Option Keston Hiura, Select Luis Perdomo
The Brewers announced they’ve optioned infielder Keston Hiura to Triple-A Nashville. Right-hander Luis Perdomo was selected onto the major league roster in a corresponding move. Milwaukee already had a pair of vacancies on the 40-man roster, which sits at 39 after Perdomo’s addition.
It’s another setback for Hiura, who has run into a series of struggles over the past couple years. Selected ninth overall in the 2017 draft, Hiura was regarded as a bat-first second baseman who could move quickly through the minor leagues. That proved to be the case, as he’d reached the majors by the middle of the 2019 season. The UC-Irvine product was excellent as a rookie, posting a .303/.368/.570 line with 19 home runs over his first 84 MLB games.
That was stellar production that seemed to cement Hiura’s status as the second baseman of the future, but it came with a surprisingly high 30.7% strikeout rate. Swing-and-miss hadn’t really been a concern for the right-handed hitter either in college or during his first season and a half in the minors, but the punchouts began to mount when he first reached Triple-A in 2019. Hiura showed as a rookie he could still be productive while fanning in three of every ten trips to the dish, but those concerns have become even more pronounced since that season.
Hiura played in 59 of the Brew Crew’s 60 games in 2020, but he hit only .212/.297/.410 with a 34.6% strikeout rate. Milwaukee signed Kolten Wong to take the primary second base job in 2021, leaving Hiura to split time between the keystone and first base. He bounced up and down from Nashville a few times while posting a .168/.256/.301 line and going down on strikes in just under 40% of his plate appearances.
In an effort to curb the swing-and-miss issues, Hiura set out to simplify his swing mechanics this past offseason. That hasn’t yet paid off; he has struck out in 20 of his first 42 trips on the season, and his 58.8% rate of contact on swings isn’t too dissimilar from his 2020-21 marks. Hiura hasn’t had a ton of playing time behind Wong and first baseman Rowdy Tellez, who is off to a scorching start to the season. The Brewers will send him back to Nashville — where he had strong results despite a lot of strikeouts last year — for more regular playing time.
Still yet to turn 26, Hiura has a bit of time to figure things out. His service clock could begin to force the issue after this season, though. Hiura entered the year with two years and 30 days of MLB service. Players are credited with a full year for spending 172 days on an MLB roster or injured list, meaning he needs 142 days in the bigs this year to keep his trajectory towards free agency after the 2025 season. There’s also a possibility of Hiura reaching arbitration eligibility as a Super Two qualifier but falling short of the three-year mark depending on how much time he spends in the minors.
Of course, the service time component is only relevant for Milwaukee if Hiura proves worthy of a long-term roster spot. He has one minor league option year remaining. If he spends 20+ days in the minors this season, he’ll exhaust that final option in 2022. That’d mean Milwaukee has to carry Hiura on the active roster out of camp next year if they don’t want to make him available to other teams. Much of how the Brewers proceed will no doubt be determined by whether he gets the strikeouts under control over the next few months.
As for Perdomo, he makes his return to the majors after missing all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery. A former Rule 5 pick of the Padres, the righty intermittently flashed upside revolving around a mid-90s sinker that regularly induced huge ground-ball totals. Perdomo never missed many bats and occasionally battled control issues, though, and he posted an ERA of 4.00 or higher in all five of his seasons in San Diego.
After Perdomo went under the knife in October 2020, the Friars released him. Milwaukee signed him to a two-year minor-league contract with an eye towards 2022, and he’s earned his way back with a very nice start in Nashville. The 28-year-old (29 next week) has allowed just three runs in 12 innings with the Sounds. He’s fanned 13 and only walked a pair, and he has racked up grounders at a massive 71% clip early in the year. He’ll add a grounder-oriented, multi-inning relief option for manager Craig Counsell — a role that was filled by José Ureña until the latter was designated for assignment on Monday.
Quick Hits: Guardians, Allen, Yankees, Severino, Brewers, Hiura
As part of a broader overview of the Guardians’ 40-man roster, Zack Meisel of the Athletic suggests southpaw Logan Allen could be a possible trade candidate. Allen, not to be confused with a Double-A pitching prospect of the same name, is out of minor league option years. Cleveland therefore needs to carry the 24-year-old on the active roster or make him available to other clubs. The Guardians are currently projected to open the year with a starting five of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, Cal Quantrill and Triston McKenzie.
It’s possible Allen lands a spot in a bullpen that could also include Sam Hentges and Anthony Gose as left-handed options. Allen has worked primarily as a starter throughout his professional career, though. He’s yet to find much big league success, posting a 5.89 ERA/5.19 SIERA across 88 2/3 career innings, but he appeared on top 100 prospect lists at Baseball America and MLB Pipeline heading into 2019 and has excellent numbers up through Double-A.
Meisel also looks at the position player group in a piece that’ll be of interest to Cleveland fans. Notably, he points out that the club will likely have to add a catcher to the roster before the start of the season, with only Austin Hedges and prospect Bryan Lavastida (who has scant Triple-A experience) currently on the 40-man. The Guardians brought in veteran Sandy León on a minor league deal in November. He currently seems the favorite for the #2 job behind Hedges, but he’d have to be formally selected to the 40-man roster once the team breaks camp.
More notes from around the league:
- After missing nearly two full seasons on account of a February 2020 Tommy John surgery, Luis Severino returned to the Yankees late last season. He made four regular season appearances in relief, tallying a combined six innings, before working 1 1/3 frames during the Wild Card game loss to the Red Sox. Severino told Andy Martino of SNY this week (Twitter link) that he’s been throwing bullpen sessions and remains on track to return to the starting rotation in 2022, as expected. It’s not clear how many innings New York can bank on from Severino, who also only logged twelve frames in 2019 due to shoulder issues. They’ll no doubt be cautious with the 27-year-old righty’s workload, but Severino would be a highly valuable piece of the Yankees pitching staff if he’s able to return at peak form on a rate basis. In his last two healthy seasons (2017-18), he posted a 3.18 ERA with an excellent 28.8% strikeout rate.
- The 2021 campaign was a massive struggle for Keston Hiura. The former ninth overall pick struck out in an untenable 39.1% of his plate appearances, and the Brewers accordingly optioned him to Triple-A Nashville on multiple occasions. It marked the second straight year of struggles for Hiura, who burst onto the MLB scene with a .303/.368/.570 showing in 348 plate appearances as a rookie in 2019. Will Sammon of the Athletic wrote this week that the right-handed hitter is working with a longtime personal coach to simplify his mechanics and tone down his leg kick in an effort to improve his contact rate. With Kolten Wong and Rowdy Tellez in place at second and first base, respectively, the Brewers aren’t likely to rely on Hiura as an everyday option out of the gate. Last fall, president of baseball operations David Stearns suggested he could see some time in the outfield to offer manager Craig Counsell more flexibility in working him into the lineup at multiple positions.
Brewers Notes: Hiura, Yelich, Stearns
The Brewers were bumped from the postseason earlier this week, losing their Division Series against the Braves. Milwaukee president of baseball operations David Stearns met with the media (including Will Sammon of the Athletic and Adam McCalvy of MLB.com) this afternoon to review the 2021 campaign and discuss the club’s upcoming offseason.
Keston Hiura will undergo a minor surgery on his right elbow, Stearns said, although there’s no indication the issue could affect his readiness for Spring Training. Milwaukee’s Opening Day first baseman, Hiura struggled all season. He got off to a horrible start, striking out in 32 of his first 89 plate appearances en route to a .152/.247/.266 line through early May. The Brewers optioned Hiura to Triple-A Nashville at that point. Hiura hit well in the minors, but he still couldn’t find much success against big league pitching. In 108 MLB plate appearances from the time of his first demotion on, he continued to slump to a .181/.264/.330 mark.
At this point, the Brew Crew can’t enter 2022 counting on Hiura to assume an everyday role. Still, he’s a former top ten pick who’s not all that far removed from a huge .303/.368/.570 showing as a rookie in 2019. Milwaukee surely doesn’t want to give up on Hiura entirely, and Stearns floated the idea of getting him some work in the outfield next season. Hiura has only played first and second base as a pro (aside from one 3 1/3 inning stint in left field this year), but it’d be a bit easier for manager Craig Counsell to work him into the lineup if the 25-year-old proves capable of covering the grass on a regular basis.
Christian Yelich won’t have any issue getting everyday reps, but he’ll also be looking to recapture his 2019 level of performance. The former MVP’s numbers have hovered right around league average (.234/.360/.392) over the past couple seasons. It’s an alarming drop-off, surely not what Stearns and the front office had in mind when they inked Yelich to an extension over the 2019-20 offseason that paid him $188.5MM in new money.
Between Yelich’s prior accolades and the organization’s enormous financial commitment to him, it’s no surprise that Stearns says getting the 29-year-old back on track is a key focus this winter. Yelich’s strikeout, walk and hard contact rates are still all solid or better, but his power output has disappeared as his ground-ball percentage has spiked from 43.2% in 2019 to 54.8% this past season. Stearns candidly admitted the organization hasn’t yet diagnosed a root cause of Yelich’s downturn in performance, but he expressed optimism in the potential for a turnaround and noted that Yelich wasn’t being hampered by any health problems.
Stearns’ own status with the franchise has been something of a talking point in recent weeks. The Mets are reportedly interested in speaking with the Manhattan native as part of their search for a new president of baseball operations. Stearns landing in Flushing has never seemed especially likely, though, primarily because he’s under contract with the Brewers through the end of next season. Thus, Milwaukee owner Mark Attanasio would need to grant the Mets permission to interview Stearns. Attanasio hasn’t definitely said whether he’d do so, although he rather coyly responded to the rumors last month (via Sports Illustrated) when he opined that Stearns is “a great executive. … He’s also under contract with us.”
For his part, Stearns mostly deflected attention away from his future, although he didn’t sound like someone anxious to leave Milwaukee. “I think I’ll shy away from any media or external speculation other than to say I’m happy here; my family is happy here. And we’ve got work to do here,” Stearns told reporters today when asked about the chances he makes the jump to the Big Apple.
Brewers Activate Rowdy Tellez From 10-Day Injured List
The Brewers announced a trio of roster moves, including the activation of first baseman Rowdy Tellez from the 10-day injured list. First baseman Keston Hiura was optioned to Triple-A to make space for Tellez on the active roster. Milwaukee also outrighted utilityman Tim Lopes to Triple-A, four days after Lopes was designated for assignment.
Tellez returns after missing three weeks due to a right patella strain. The slugger and the Brewers each hope that the time off has corrected what had been a nagging knee problem for Tellez, and that he is now ready to roll for the Brew Crew’s postseason stretch.
While the Brewers’ May acquisition of Willy Adames has been rightfully lauded as a turning point in the season, the club’s trade for Tellez in early July shouldn’t be overlooked as another key move. Tellez got off to a brutal start with the Blue Jays this year, prompting Toronto to clear its first base/DH logjam and upgrade its struggling bullpen by moving Tellez to Milwaukee for Trevor Richards. Tellez responded to the change of scenery, hitting .270/.329/.474 with seven home runs during his first 167 plate appearances in a Brewers uniform.
The Tellez deal was necessary in part because Hiura struggled so badly, and he will likely finish the season with a .168/.256/.301 slash line over 197 PA at the big league level in 2021. After a huge rookie campaign in 2019, Hiura didn’t hit well in 2020 before cratering this season, leaving the former top prospect as something of an unknown quantity heading into next year. Hiura is still only 25 years old and has continued to hit well at the Triple-A level, at least, but it remains to be seen if the Brewers still view him as a potential future cornerstone.
Brewers Designate Kyle Lobstein For Assignment
The Brewers have designated left-hander Kyle Lobstein for assignment in order to open a roster spot for infielder Keston Hiura, per a club announcement. Hiura has been formally reinstated from the Covid-19-related injured list and will be active on the Brewers’ Triple-A Nashville roster.
Lobstein, 32, came to Milwaukee in a minor mid-July swap that sent cash back to the Nationals, who’d designated him for assignment. The former Tigers and Pirates hurler made his return to the big leagues earlier this season with Washington after a five-year absence, but he appeared in just three games, yielding three runs in 1 1/3 innings.
With the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate, Lobstein pitched quite well, compiling a 1.69 ERA with a very strong 29.8 percent strikeout rate, a 9.5 percent walk rate and an elite 69.4 percent ground-ball rate. Things didn’t go as well with Milwaukee’s top affiliate in Nashville, however, as Lobstein has been tagged for 5.40 ERA with nine strikeouts, four walks, three hit batters and a diminished 52.1 percent grounder rate in 13 1/3 innings.
In 129 1/3 Major League innings overall, Lobstein carries a 5.22 ERA with a 13.3 percent strikeout rate, an 8.9 percent walk rate and a 49.8 percent ground-ball rate, although his improved strikeout numbers in the minors in recent years suggest he’s made some changes from earlier in his career when he was struggling as a starter in Detroit. The Brewers will have a week to place him on outright waivers or release him now that the trade deadline has passed.
Brewers Place Lauer, Hader, Hiura On Covid List
Aug. 4: The Brewers announced yet another positive test: lefty Eric Lauer. He’ll head to the Covid list and be subject to a 10-day quarantine, at minimum. That move opens roster space to add righty Sal Romano, whom the Brewers claimed off waivers from the Yankees this week.
Lauer, acquired alongside Luis Urias in the trade that sent Trent Grisham and Zach Davies to San Diego, has quietly enjoyed a strong season in Milwaukee. He’s made 15 appearances — 11 starts, four bullpen outings — and notched a 3.50 ERA with a 22.9 percent strikeout rate and an 8.9 percent walk rate. He’s been brilliant as of late, too, making even a brief departure a tough blow to the Brewers. Over Lauer’s past seven outings (six starts, one relief appearance), he’s pitched to a 1.98 ERA with a 31-to-13 K/BB ratio through 36 1/3 frames.
Aug. 3: Milwaukee has also placed infielder Keston Hiura on the COVID-19 list, the team announced.
Aug. 2, 4:50pm: Hader indeed tested positive, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. He’ll be out a minimum of 10 days.
3:38pm: The Brewers have placed lefty Josh Hader on the Covid-19-related injured list, per a club announcement. Newly added righty John Axford has been selected to the Major League roster in a corresponding move. The team did not specify whether Hader has tested positive or was a close contact. Individuals who test positive are subject to a 10-day quarantine, while close contacts are subject to seven-day absences.
It’s been another dominant season for the 21-year-old Hader, who has pitched to a sterling 1.83 ERA while striking out 45 percent of his opponents against a 9.4 percent walk rate through 39 1/3 innings thus far in 2021. Hader is the latest in a growing number of Brewers to hit the Covid IL, joining bullpen-mates Hunter Strickland, Jandel Gustave and Jake Cousins as well as right fielder Christian Yelich.
With Hader sidelined for a yet-unknown period of time, right-hander Devin Williams figures to step in as the primary option in save situations for manager Craig Counsell. Brent Suter, Brad Boxberger and the recently acquired John Curtiss will be among the first names up for setup work.