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Rangers Notes: deGrom, Scherzer, Rocker

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Jacob deGrom’s 2024 debut finally appears imminent, after the two-time Cy Young Award winner completed his fourth and likely final minor league rehab outing on Saturday.  DeGrom has seemingly come out of that four-inning, 49-pitch appearance in good health, and is now set to make his return to the majors at some point during the Rangers’ upcoming six-game road trip that begins Tuesday.

“If it all goes well, he’ll be pitching for us next time around,” manager Bruce Bochy told MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry and other reporters.  “It’s pretty cool because it’s been a long road as these guys go through the rehab on the Tommy John.”

DeGrom had his Tommy John surgery in June 2023, and last pitched in a big league game on April 28, 2023.  After signing a five-year, $185MM free agent contract with Texas during the 2022-23 offseason, deGrom’s only contribution to the Rangers’ World Series season was six starts and 30 1/3 innings, albeit with a very impressive 2.67 ERA and his typically excellent strikeout and walk rates.

Statistics compiled during minor league rehab stints should always be taken with a grain of salt, but deGrom has looked quite sharp in posting an 0.84 ERA over 10 2/3 total innings in the minors.  As Landry noted, deGrom has been so dominant that he hasn’t been able to entirely hit his assigned rehab checkpoints.  In his start on Saturday, Bochy said deGrom was assigned for four innings or 60 pitches, yet deGrom breezed through Double-A opponents on just 49 pitches — the most he has thrown in any of his four rehab starts.

As the season enters its final three weeks, the Rangers’ title defense has resulted in only a 70-74 record and a longshot bid at a wild card berth.  DeGrom won’t be returning to a pennant race, but there’s some obvious benefit in getting back on a big league mound and shaking off some rust in advance of a hopefully normal offseason, and then a standard ramp-up in Spring Training.  At age 36 and with just 186 2/3 MLB innings pitched since Opening Day 2021, deGrom’s health history will always make him something of a question mark, yet he has continued to deliver whenever he has been able to pitch.

DeGrom could soon be joined by another veteran ace in Max Scherzer, whose minor league rehab stint got underway Saturday at Triple-A with four hitless innings of work on 53 pitches.  Right shoulder fatigue and then triceps discomfort has kept Scherzer on the injured list since the start of August, but a mechanical fix seems to have corrected his triceps issue, and Scherzer looked to be in good form on Saturday.

It seems possible that Scherzer could rejoin the Rangers as early as this week’s road trip, depending on whether or not the team feels he needs any more rehab work to more fully build his pitch count.  The Rangers could also activate Scherzer and then allow him to rebuild at the MLB level, either on a limited innings count or with a piggyback pitcher working behind Scherzer.

Heading into the season, Texas planned to have deGrom, Scherzer (who was then recovering from offseason back surgery), and Tyler Mahle (Tommy John surgery) all back around the middle of the year, providing the rotation with some reinforcements down the stretch.  While a few setbacks delayed these pitchers on that projected timeline, the bigger problem was other injuries and a lack of hitting that torpedoed the Rangers’ season.

Ironically, this planned surplus of pitching has now come at a time when the Rangers might prefer to look at their future arms.  One such hurler is top prospect Kumar Rocker, who has opened some eyes since his own return from a May 2023 Tommy John surgery.  The third overall pick of the 2022 draft has an 0.46 ERA over 19 2/3 innings in Double-A ball this season, and an 1.80 ERA in 10 innings since being promoted to Triple-A Round Rock.

These numbers have been impressive enough that Rangers GM Chris Young told reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News) that the team hadn’t closed the door on the possibility of Rocker making his big league debut at some point before the 2024 campaign is over.  Grant ran through the various factors involved, including Rocker’s rough 50-inning cap in his first season back from TJ surgery, and the fact that Texas would be putting Rocker on the 40-man roster perhaps earlier than necessary.  With three weeks remaining in the season, there’s still time for Rocker to bank a few more Triple-A innings, and if he keeps forcing the issue, the Rangers still have time to perhaps have the right-hander make a cameo after the minor league season is over.

Rangers Giving Jack Leiter Rotation Opportunity

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An 11-14 showing in August has slammed the door shut on the Rangers’ playoff chances. The defending World Series winners will spend the season’s final month evaluating their plans for 2025. To that end, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that Texas intends to give former #2 overall pick Jack Leiter regular rotation run for the rest of the year.

Leiter made his first three big league starts between April and the middle of May. The Rangers optioned him to Triple-A Round Rock on May 15 and had kept him in the minors until this week. Texas brought Leiter up as the 27th man for the second game of Wednesday’s doubleheader against the White Sox. He tossed four innings, allowing three runs on six hits with two walks and four strikeouts.

In a procedural move, Texas reassigned Leiter back to Round Rock after the game. Pitchers normally need to wait 15 days after being optioned before they can be recalled to the big leagues. That does not apply to players who were temporarily added to the roster for a doubleheader. The Rangers can recall Leiter at any time and Grant reports that they’ll keep him in the big league rotation. His next turn won’t come until early next week, at which point teams will be allowed to carry a 14th pitcher on the active roster with the September expansion.

Leiter’s professional career has not played out as smoothly as the Rangers envisioned when they drafted him in 2021. The Vanderbilt product has struggled to throw strikes consistently. He walked upwards of 13% of opponents at Double-A in each of his first two full seasons. Leiter has scaled back the free passes to some extent this year, issuing walks at a 10.6% clip with Round Rock.

While he’s unlikely to ever have pinpoint command, Leiter still has intriguing stuff. He has punched out a third of opposing hitters over 17 Triple-A starts this year. He owns a 3.51 earned run average across 77 innings with Round Rock, an impressive mark in the Pacific Coast League. The 6’1″ righty hasn’t gotten beyond four innings in any of his first four big league starts. He has allowed 22 runs (19 earned) over 13 1/3 MLB innings.

Leiter clearly isn’t a finished product. It’s nevertheless sensible for the Rangers to give him a few chances to try to find his form against big league hitters. He has logged 254 2/3 minor league frames, all of them at Double-A or above. He’s 24 years old and already occupies a 40-man roster spot. Texas is wrapping up a lost season and will go into the offseason with a lot questions about the rotation.

Max Scherzer and Andrew Heaney will be free agents. It’s likely that Nathan Eovaldi is also headed to the market. Eovaldi needs to pitch 23 more innings to unlock a $20MM player option. Even if he hits the vesting threshold, he could decline the option in search of another multi-year free agent deal.

That’d leave Texas with a rotation core of Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle and Jon Gray. deGrom and Mahle could be on innings limits after returning from 2023 Tommy John procedures. Gray has been on the injured list twice this year due to groin strains. He has a 4.32 ERA over 98 innings. Dane Dunning has an ERA north of 5.00 and has been in and out of the rotation. Cody Bradford has been limited to nine appearances this year by a rib fracture. Scherzer, Mahle and deGrom are all currently on the injured list.

GM Chris Young and his staff will undoubtedly add to the group over the winter (likely with at least two outside pickups). They’ll need some kind of emergence from their younger starting pitchers to supplement that expensive veteran group. That has not been a strength for the organization.

Former notable prospects Cole Winn and Owen White remain on the 40-man roster. Neither has become a key contributor. Winn posted an ERA above 7.00 in Triple-A last season and has moved fully to relief. As Grant observes, the Rangers also converted the 25-year-old White to the bullpen in Triple-A this month. White has had better results since moving to relief but still carries a 5.51 ERA over 94 2/3 total frames.

It’s not out of the question that Leiter’s command could eventually push him to the ’pen as well. That’s not currently on the table, though, and the Rangers will give him his first real opportunity against MLB opposition next month. That probably won’t be enough runway to guarantee a spot in the Opening Day starting five, but a strong showing could give him a chance to battle for a rotation job in Spring Training.

Leiter’s college teammate Kumar Rocker has returned from Tommy John surgery and has begun mowing down upper minors hitters. The #3 overall pick of the 2022 draft fired 19 2/3 innings of one-run ball in five Double-A appearances. He tossed five scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts in his Triple-A debut last night. Rocker presumably won’t be in line for a big league call this year, as doing so would require carrying him on the 40-man roster all offseason. He could put himself on the radar for a promotion early in the ’25 campaign if he keeps on anything close to his current trajectory.

Rangers Notes: Seager, Mahle, Rocker

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Rangers fans were dealt a major injury scare last night when star shortstop Corey Seager went down after being struck on the wrist by a pitch from Orioles lefty Cade Povich. Seager immediately exited the game but fortunately Rangers manager Bruce Bochy confirmed to reporters last night that initial x-rays came back negative. That indicated that the runner-up for the 2023 AL MVP award seemingly had avoided a worst case scenario, though the Rangers still planned to evaluate him further today.

Said evaluation could have been more encouraging. As noted by Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News earlier today, Bochy told reporters prior to today’s game against Baltimore that Seager was still feeling “pretty sore” and that the club is planning to have him undergo an MRI exam tomorrow when the club returns home to Texas. Even if the MRI comes back clean, however, Bochy admitted that Seager is going to be out for at least “the next couple of days” even in an absolute best case scenario.

The Rangers called up infielder Jonathan Ornelas prior to tonight’s game to serve as an extra infield option while Seager nurses his injury, but the 24-year-old youngster has just nine plate appearances to his name at the big league level and a lackluster 66 wRC+ at the Triple-A level this year. That leaves him unlikely to impact the club on more than an emergency basis, and if Seager were to go on the injured list the club would likely call up utility bat Ezequiel Duran to fill in on the infield instead. It’s possible Duran would’ve been recalled instead of Ornelas if not for Duran being optioned to the minors just last week, meaning he can’t return to the big leagues for ten days unless replacing a player headed to the IL.

While the news regarded Seager certainly could be better, Rangers fans have also received positive news regarding the status of a handful of rehabbing pitchers in recent days. As noted by Grant, right-hander Tyler Mahle threw a bullpen yesterday and is slated to begin a rehab assignment next week as he makes his way back from Tommy John surgery. Mahle went under the knife on the same day as top pitching prospect Kumar Rocker, who will start a rehab assignment of his own in rookie ball sometime next week. According to Grant, Bochy indicated that both Mahle and Rocker are essentially going to be on the schedule of a starter ramping up during Spring Training, meaning that Mahle could be an option to join the Rangers rotation sometime after the All Star break.

Mahle signed with the Rangers on a two-year deal this past offseason while rehabbing the aforementioned Tommy John surgery and has long appeared ticketed for a return at some point in the season half of this year. The 29-year-old has generally been a solid mid-to-back of the rotation arm when healthy enough to take the mound, with a 3.90 ERA (117 ERA+) and 3.86 FIP across 374 innings of work while striking out a solid 21.7% of batters since the start of the 2020 season. Health has been the primary question regarding Mahle in the recent years of his career, as he’s only made it to 30 starts once (a 33-start campaign in 2021) in his eight years as a big leaguer. Should he stay healthy enough to contribute, Mahle figures to provide the Rangers additional rotation depth behind their current group of Max Scherzer, Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Michael Lorenzen.

As for Rocker, the right-hander was among the best-regarded prospects in both the 2021 and 2022 drafts. He was selected 10th overall out of Vanderbilt in the 2021 draft by the Mets but ended up not signing over concerns regarding his elbow, leading the Rangers to pick him third overall the following year. Rocker posted a solid 3.86 ERA in six starts with the Rangers at the High-A level last year before going under the knife back in May, striking out a fantastic 37.9% of batters faced at the level. Now 24, Rocker figures to resume his ascent up the minor league ladder upon his return to action. While it seems unlikely that he would factor into the club’s plans at the big league level this year given his lack of pro experience, it’s easy to imagine the righty debuting in the majors as soon as next season if he sports the same high-octane stuff he flashed in the minors and the SEC prior to his surgery.

Rangers Notes: Scherzer, Mahle, Rocker, Church

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Right-hander Max Scherzer has made one rehab start already and was slated for a second one but will be delayed a few days after experiencing some soreness in his right thumb, GM Chris Young told the Rangers beat last night (X link via Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). They’re hopeful he can make his next start this week.

The 39-year-old Scherzer has spent the entire season to date on the 15-day injured list while he mends from offseason back surgery. He was excellent in eight starts down the stretch last year, pitching to a 3.20 ERA with a 29.9% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate following the trade that sent him from the Mets to Texas. The original thought was that Scherzer would be sidelined into June, but the Rangers held off on placing the three-time Cy Young winner on the 60-day injured list with his recovery ahead of schedule. There’s no indication that his back is providing any problems, so assuming the thumb injury proves minor, a mid-May return still feels viable.

Texas currently ranks 14th in the majors with a 3.87 ERA from the rotation. That’s thanks largely to strong showings from Nathan Eovaldi, Dane Dunning and Jon Gray — each of whom has made six starts. Left-hander Cody Bradford impressed early but has since gone on the injured list with a stress fracture in his rib. Veteran Andrew Heaney has struggled in five starts, and rookie Jack Leiter was hit hard in his big league debut. Right-hander Michael Lorenzen, who signed a late-spring one-year deal, has helped solidify things through his first three starts — but a return from Scherzer would be a substantial boon to the staff, of course.

Scherzer is just one of three veteran starters on the mend for Texas. Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle are both expected back later in the season. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News provides an update on Mahle’s rehab from Tommy John surgery, noting that he and Rangers prospect Kumar Rocker not only coincidentally had their Tommy John procedures performed on the same day last year but performed by the same surgeon: Dr. Keith Meister. Rocker has begun throwing all of his pitches off a mound, while Mahle is also pitching off a mound and will join his teammates on their upcoming road trip. Mahle and Rocker aren’t yet to the point where they’re facing live hitters, but each is progressing well through the rehab process.

Things aren’t going quite so well for pitching prospect Marc Church. Young revealed yesterday that the right-hander has been diagnosed with a strained rotator cuff and will be sidelined for a yet-to-be-determined period as a result of that shoulder issue (X link via Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com).

Church, 23, was the team’s 18th-round pick back in 2019 — signing for an over-slot $300K bonus — and has emerged as a prospect of note in the Rangers’ system, ranking 22nd at MLB.com. Church has missed bats in bunches throughout his minor league tenure, fanning 34.7% of his total opponents. A former high school shortstop who didn’t begin pitching until his senior year, he draws praise for his athleticism and could yet have some untapped upside as he’s still relatively new to pitching. MLB.com’s report on him notes that he has a pair of plus-plus (70-grade) offerings when his heater and slider are at their best but lacks consistency.

Church has also begun to encounter some command troubles in the upper minors. He split last season between Double-A and Triple-A, walking a combined 14% of his opponents. He also fanned just shy of 30% of batters faced, however. Church opened the current season with a solid 4 2/3 innings out of the ’pen before going down with his current injury. He’s already on the 40-man roster and stands as a candidate to make his big league debut in 2024, particularly after a strong spring showing: 10 2/3 innings, five hits, three runs, five walks, 14 strikeouts. If Church is able to get back on the mound without a long-term absence, he could still find his way to the big leagues this season, but it’s not entirely clear how feasible that is in light of this setback. The Rangers will presumably have more updates on the promising young righty in the weeks to come.

Kumar Rocker To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Rangers prospect Kumar Rocker will have Tommy John surgery, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.

Rocker, 23, has a higher profile than the typical High-A prospect given the drama that has surrounded him in recent years. He was one of the most highly-touted youngsters going into the 2021 draft and was selected 10th overall by the Mets. Shortly after the draft, it was reported that he and the club were going to agree to a $6MM signing bonus, above the $4.7399MM slot value for the pick. However, the two sides would eventually be unable to come to an agreement when the club reportedly grew concerned by something in Rocker’s right elbow.

Having his plans to jump into affiliated ball scuttled, Rocker pivoted to sign with the Tri-City ValleyCats of the independent Frontier League, eventually tossing 20 innings for them last summer. The Rangers then selected him with the third overall pick in last year’s draft, quickly agreeing to terms on a $5.2MM bonus that was below the $7,587,600 slot value of the pick.

After all of that runaround, Rocker was finally able to join the affiliated ranks this year. He made six starts for the High-A Hickory Crawdads, posting a 3.86 ERA in 28 innings. He struck out a huge 37.8% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate, getting grounders at a 51.6% clip. Earlier today, MLB Pipeline tweeted that they had just added Rocker to their list of the top 100 prospects in the league, just about 25 minutes before the news dropped that he would have to go under the knife.

Rocker will now be out of action for the rest of 2023 and at least part of 2024 as well, given the typical 14 to 18 months required to rehab from Tommy John surgery. It’s an unfortunate setback for a pitcher who has already dealt with a few twists and turns on his road to the big leagues. He isn’t yet on the club’s 40-man roster and won’t even be Rule 5 eligible until after the 2025 season.

Big Hype Prospects: Ginn, Julien, Pages, Veen, Rocker

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Voting for the final participants of the Fall Stars Game is underway. The game itself is scheduled for 3pm CT on Sunday, November 6. If you happen to be in the area, swing by the game and meet up with participants of the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference hosted by Baseball HQ. Say hello from me (full disclosure, I am a staff writer with HQ).

Five Big Hype Prospects

J.T. Ginn, 23, SP, OAK (AA)
AFL: 12 IP, 4 BB, 12 K, 2.25 ERA

A former second-round pick of the New York Mets, the Athletics acquired Ginn in the Chris Bassitt trade. The right-hander is coming off a mixed performance in Double-A where he posted 10.44 K/9, 3.57 BB/9, a 56.6 percent ground ball rate, and a painful 6.11 ERA. Typically, pitchers who keep the ball on the ground while recording strikeouts and limiting walks represent a stable and effective asset class. Ginn’s season was cut short due to injury – hence his inclusion in the AFL. He only pitched 35.1 innings in 10 Double-A starts. Ginn is scheduled to pitch today (Friday) and is currently defending a brief scoreless streak. He appears to have a sufficient repertoire for starting though he might revert to relief if his command proves insufficient. While pitchers are never truly “can’t miss,” I consider Ginn to be a high-probability future Major Leaguer.

Edouard Julien, 23, 2B, MIN (AA)
AFL: 81 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .361/.519/.689

Far and away the top-performing hitter in the AFL, Julien appears to have turned a corner in his development. For older prospects like Julien, the fall league is for working on new skills. In his case, doing damage to pitches within the strike zone. He’s already proven to have an exceptional eye with enough contact skills to confidently take early-count strikes. However, to transition to the Majors, he’ll need to jump on those early-count cookies rather than let them pass. According to a contact, this is what he’s focusing on this fall. His 1.208 OPS suggests he’s succeeding. In addition to leading the league in OPS and walks, he’s tied for the lead in runs scored (19) and home runs (5). He’s hit all five of his home runs in the last 15 days.

For those keeping track at home, this is the same adjustment Gunnar Henderson made to launch his meteoric rise this season. That’s not to say Julien is physically comparable to Henderson, only that he has the raw ingredients to leap into the Top 100 prospects via a similar path.

Andy Pages, 21, OF, LAD (AA)
AFL: 83 PA, 4 HR, 1 SB, .286/.373/.486

If Pages has a thing to work on, it’s his strikeout rate. Thus far, he’s managed a lovely 12 percent strikeout rate this fall. He posted a 24.5 percent strikeout rate each of the last two seasons. We’ve covered Pages a few times in this column, and there’s no reason to believe anything has changed in his profile. He has average or better plate discipline, considerable raw power, and a swing geared for frequently pulled, fly ball contact. The batting profile reads similarly to early-career Rhys Hoskins. Pages has more raw power and a less discerning eye than the Phillies first baseman. He’s also far more athletic.

Pages is scheduled to participate in the Fall Stars Home Run Derby.

Zac Veen, 20, OF, COL (AA)
AFL: 85 PA, 1 HR, 16 SB, .353/.471/.456

Veen, who we touched upon during the first week of AFL coverage, remains the stolen base leader roughly one month into the season. Although he hasn’t hit for much power, the rest of his performance is encouraging. He’s recorded 14 walks compared to just six strikeouts. During the regular season, Veen showed plus discipline in High- and Double-A. However, he struggled to make contact, especially at Double-A. His AFL performance helps to put that in context. The 20-year-old was probably overmatched against older competition.

A strong showing in the upper minors next season could yield a 2023 Major League debut. The speedy outfielder is well-built for Coors Field. While we tend to think of the venue as a power haven, it bolsters all types of hitting. Besides, most scouts believe Veen will grow into considerable pop.

Kumar Rocker, 22, SP, TEX (—)
AFL: 7.2 IP, 9 BB, 8 K, 4.70 ERA

A late addition to the AFL roster, this represents Rocker’s first affiliated action. He got off to a rough start, uncorking multiple walks and wild pitches. He’s since settled down over his last two appearances, working 5.2 innings with four hits, one run, two walks, and all eight of his strikeouts. Rocker’s draft history makes for fascinating reading. Throughout his amateur prospectdom, he’s brought different arm slots and pitch mixes. The one unifying detail is a tendency for erratic command. On his best days, he looks like a surefire Major League workhorse. On his worst, he is indistinguishable from the hundreds of live-armed minor leaguers who have yet to (and might never) click on the lightbulb.

Five More

Connor Thomas, STL (24): The current strikeout leader by a healthy margin, Thomas pitched a five-inning, seven-strikeout gem since our last update. The southpaw is Rule 5 eligible and has almost certainly played his way into being selected if the Cardinals do not protect him. They appear to have sufficient roster flexibility to do so.

Evan Reifert, TBR (23): Also since our last update, Reifert has added three more no-hit innings along with seven strikeouts. That puts him at 10.2 no-hit innings on the season with 22 strikeouts. Four walks represent the lone blemish to his stat line. Reifert has the third-most strikeouts in the AFL despite throwing fewer than half the innings of Thomas.

Carlos De La Cruz, PHI (22): A mammoth human of roughly the size and shape of Aaron Judge, De La Cruz is a free-swinging center fielder with considerable power. He’s performed well this fall while still showing dreadful feel for the strike zone. His 24 strikeouts in 59 plate appearances (40.6% K%) rate as one of the worst performances in the AFL. Conversely, his .302/.373/.547 triple-slash with 16 hits, three home runs, and two triples is indicative of his quality of contact when he does connect.

Cal Conley, ATL (23): A switch-hitting future utility man who has only advanced to High-A, Conley is one of the finalists for a spot on the Fall Stars roster. He split the year between Low- and High-A, posting a roughly league-average batting line. In 83 plate appearances this fall, he’s batting .304/.422/.551 with two home runs, three triples, five doubles, and nine steals. Conley has the sixth-highest OPS over the last 15 days.

Mason Miller, OAK (24): Miller is a fireballer, regularly living in the triple-digits with his fastball. Over the last 15 days, he’s made two three-inning starts, holding opponents to just two hits, no walks, and nine strikeouts. Thus far in his professional career, he’s been used as a short-burst starter. He’s expected to eventually transition to the bullpen. His third pitch is a below-average changeup, and he also struggles with command. He fills the strike zone and lets his stuff overwhelm hitters rather than locating it.

Rangers, Kumar Rocker Agree To Terms

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The Rangers and No. 3 overall draft pick Kumar Rocker have agreed to terms on a $5.2MM bonus, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The right-hander’s bonus clocks in well south of the pick’s $7,587,600 slot value, which should afford the Rangers flexibility further down their board. Rocker is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Rocker was the No. 10 overall pick by the Mets a year ago and was reportedly set to ink a $6MM bonus before medical concerns scuttled that deal. He’d eventually go on to have an arthroscopic procedure on his right shoulder last August. Rather than returning to Vanderbilt for his senior season, Rocker instead opted to pitch for the Tri-City Valley Cats of the independent Frontier League (an official partner league of MLB). Health hasn’t looked to be an issue at all for Rocker this time year; he’s pitched 20 innings for the Valley Cats and turned in a 1.35 ERA with a dominant 32-to-4 K/BB ratio while reportedly running his heater back up to 99 mph.

The selection by the Rangers improbably reunites Vanderbilt’s 2021 co-aces, as Texas took right-hander Jack Leiter with the No. 2 overall pick in the draft just last season. Leiter and Rocker were widely viewed as two of the top arms in last year’s draft — evidenced by their top-ten selections — and will now give the Rangers a pair of high-ceiling arms upon which to build. (Leiter certainly seems pleased with the Rangers’ selection, celebrating the pick with a pair of tweets last night.)

Rocker, 22, starred alongside Leiter for the entirety of his three years at Vanderbilt, pitching to a 2.89 ERA with a 33.2% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate in 236 1/3 innings for the Commodores in a tough SEC setting. The 6’5″, 245-pound righty has an upper-90s heater, and scouting reports from Baseball America, The Athletic, ESPN, MLB.com and FanGraphs credit him with a slider that draws 60 to 70 grades on the 20-80 scale. Rocker has also worked with a curveball and changeup, both drawing at least average ratings in most reports.

While Rocker was one of the most recognizable names in this year’s draft, his selection at No. 3 overall nonetheless registered as a draft-night surprise. Most rankings had him as a late first-rounder or even in the second round, considering last summer’s shoulder surgery and some oft-cited inconsistency in his stuff at Vanderbilt. The Rangers were clearly heartened by Rocker’s strong showing in the Frontier League, and they’ll also now have the option to use the savings on their No. 3 selection to scoop up some lingering, hard-to-sign talents who remain on the board.

Despite picking at No. 3, Texas entered the draft with just the 14th-largest bonus pool — a reflection of the fact that they surrendered their second- and third-round picks (and the associated bonus pool allotments) to sign free agents Corey Seager and Marcus Semien this past winter. Because of those forfeitures, Rocker remains the only selection Texas has made thus far. The Rangers’ next pick will come in Round 4, and there are still a few highly regarded high school options on the board, headlined by Clemson-committed righty Brock Porter, who’s regarded as a first-round talent but was not selected on Day 1 of the draft.

2022 MLB Draft, First Round Results

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The 2022 MLB Draft is underway, and here is the full list of each team’s selections from the first round.  The Dodgers are the only team without a first-rounder, as their top pick (originally 30th overall) was dropped 10 places to 40th overall (the first pick of the second round) as part of their punishment for exceeding the highest luxury-tax tier in 2021.  However, there are still 30 picks in the first round proper since the Mets have both the 11th and 14th overall picks — for not signing 10th overall pick Kumar Rocker last year, New York was given a compensatory selection in the 11th overall spot this year.

This year’s draft will again be 20 rounds long, and split over three days.  The first 80 picks will be made tonight — the first two official rounds, the two Competitive Balance Rounds, and the two sets of compensatory rounds (giving picks to teams who lost qualifying offer-rejecting free agents).  Rounds 3-10 take place on Monday, and rounds 11-20 on Tuesday.

Under the terms of the new collective bargaining agreement, the 2023 draft will have several differences, including a lottery to determine the top six picks, a revamped process for deciding the Competitive Balance rounds, possible extra picks for teams due to the Prospect Promotion Incentive rules, and possibly the end of the qualifying offer system as we know it should an international draft be implemented.

For one final year under this draft format, however, let’s dive into the picks.  More details and scouting reports on all these young players are available in pre-draft rankings from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, Pipeline has the breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

The selections….

  1. Baltimore Orioles: Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater High School (OK)
  2. Arizona Diamondbacks: Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan High School (GA)
  3. Texas Rangers: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt (played in independent Frontier League in 2021)
  4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Termarr Johnson, SS, Benjamin E. Mays High School (GA)
  5. Washington Nationals: Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (FL)
  6. Miami Marlins: Jacob Berry, 3B/OF, LSU
  7. Chicago Cubs: Cade Horton, RHP, University of Oklahoma
  8. Minnesota Twins: Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly
  9. Kansas City Royals: Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech
  10. Colorado Rockies: Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga
  11. New York Mets: Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech
  12. Detroit Tigers: Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech
  13. Los Angeles Angels: Zach Neto, SS, Campbell University
  14. New York Mets: Jett Williams, SS/OF, Rockwall-Heath High School (TX)
  15. San Diego Padres: Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford High School (GA)
  16. Cleveland Guardians: Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison University
  17. Philadelphia Phillies: Justin Crawford, OF, Bishop Gorman High School (NV)
  18. Cincinnati Reds: Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC (FL)
  19. Oakland Athletics: Daniel Susac, C, University of Arizona
  20. Atlanta Braves: Owen Murphy, RHP, Riverside-Brookfield High School (IL)
  21. Seattle Mariners: Cole Young, SS, North Allegheny High School (PA)
  22. St. Louis Cardinals: Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State University
  23. Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage High School (FL)
  24. Boston Red Sox: Mikey Romero, SS, Orange Lutheran High School (CA)
  25. New York Yankees: Spencer Jones, OF, Vanderbilt University
  26. Chicago White Sox: Noah Schultz, LHP, Oswego East High School (IL)
  27. Milwaukee Brewers: Eric Brown Jr., SS, Coastal Carolina University
  28. Houston Astros: Drew Gilbert, OF, University of Tennessee
  29. Tampa Bay Rays: Xavier Isaac, 1B, East Forsyth High School (NC)
  30. San Francisco Giants: Reggie Crawford, LHP/1B, University of Connecticut

NL East Notes: Soto, Mets, Rocker

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In addition to the 13-year, $350MM extension offer that Juan Soto reportedly turned down prior to the lockout, it was recently reported that Soto rejected a second offer after the lockout. The specific financial details of that second offer haven’t been publicly revealed, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that it was for “at least” $400MM.

$400MM would be a significant symbolic barrier to cross, as it would be the first time an MLB player surpassed that threshold. The current record for the largest guarantee is the $365MM in new money given to Mookie Betts when he agreed to an extension with the Dodgers. Soto says that he’s still open to an extension, but it seems like it might take more than a record-breaking contract to get it done.

Other notes from the NL East…

  • From the same Nightengale piece, he relays that the Mets plan on being aggressive at the trade deadline but without giving up their top prospects. Instead, they would prefer to make deals by taking on large contracts from other teams. This wouldn’t be the first time they considered this approach, as the Mets reportedly were in discussions with the Padres this offseason on a deal that would have sent Dominic Smith to San Diego in exchange for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan, Eric Hosmer and $30MM to help cover Hosmer’s salary. The deal ended up falling through due to the Mets’ medical staff growing concerned with the medical records of Paddack, who ended up requiring Tommy John surgery after being traded to the Twins instead. The new CBA added a fourth luxury tax line at the $290MM mark, which the Mets have pushed themselves right up against. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates their current luxury tax number to be $289.4MM, but it seems the division-leading Mets are willing to push over the line in order to bolster the club for the final push. They apparently won’t be dipping deep into their farm system, which is ranked the 16th in the league by Baseball America, but should get a boost at the upcoming draft when they will make two out of the first 14 picks.
  • The reason the Mets have an extra first round draft pick is because of last year’s Kumar Rocker saga. The Mets selected him 10th overall and were apparently going to offer him a $6MM bonus, $1.26MM above slot value, until they grew concerned by something in his throwing elbow during a post-draft medical evaluation and withdrew their offer. Now a report from Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan of ESPN relays that Rocker underwent shoulder surgery in September. Rocker’s agent Scott Boras characterized the procedure as “a minor scope” in the piece. Rocker signed with the Tri-City ValleyCats of the independent Frontier League in preparation for re-entering the draft this year. Through five starts, he’s pitched 20 innings with a 1.35 ERA, 32 strikeouts and four walks. Despite the surgery, Jim Callis of MLB.com believes that Rocker has shown himself healthy enough to be selected at some point in the first round of the draft, which begins on July 17.

Kumar Rocker Signs With Frontier League’s Tri-City ValleyCats

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Draft prospect Kumar Rocker has signed with the Tri-City ValleyCats of the independent Frontier League, according to a club announcement. He’ll use the league as a showcase to demonstrate his health and current form in advance of July’s draft.

Rocker has been one of the more talented and well-known draft prospects in recent years. Regarded as a possible first-round talent out of high school, Rocker matriculated to Vanderbilt after not agreeing to terms with a major league team on draft day. The 6’5″ right-hander stepped right into the Commodores’ rotation and would spend three seasons there. He posted a 3.25 ERA over 99 2/3 innings as a freshman, capping off the season with an utterly dominant 19-strikeout no-hitter in an elimination game against Duke.

Vanderbilt would go on to defeat Michigan in that year’s College World Series. From 2020-21, Rocker teamed with Jack Leiter — who would eventually be selected second overall by the Rangers — at the top of the rotation. The 2020 college baseball season was shortened because of the pandemic, but Rocker returned with a 2.73 ERA and 179 strikeouts over 122 frames last year. Vanderbilt finished national runner-up, and Rocker headed into last summer’s draft as a possible top five selection.

The Mets wound up selecting him with the 10th overall pick, with reports suggesting they were prepared to offer an overslot $6MM signing bonus. New York took issue with something in his throwing elbow during a post-draft medical evaluation, however, and wound up pulling their offer entirely. The Mets received the 11th selection in the upcoming draft as compensation. Unsurprisingly, Rocker’s camp pushed back against the idea that he was a particular health risk, with advisor Scott Boras saying last summer the hurler “is healthy according to independent medical review by multiple prominent baseball orthopedic surgeons.”

Rocker elected not to return to Vanderbilt, preferring to prepare for the 2022 draft on his own. Vanderbilt head coach Tim Corbin suggested in February he may eventually pursue an opportunity in independent ball, and that’s the course of action he’s chosen. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (on Twitter) that Rocker will begin pitching in games for the ValleyCats around a month from now, giving him about four weeks of game action before draft day.

Baseball America placed Rocker 35th on its latest ranking of this summer’s top draft prospects. Obviously, much of his stock will depend on how concerned various team medical personnel are during their evaluations of his elbow. This is generally regarded as a weak year for college pitching, so the 22-year-old Rocker would be one of the top nearer-term arms in the class if his arsenal is intact and the medical evaluations check out.

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