Latest On Trade Markets For Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas
Reds righty Luis Castillo and A’s righty Frankie Montas are not and never have been teammates, but their trade markets have been near inextricably linked dating back to the offseason. That’s understandable, given the similarities between them. The 29-year-olds are separated by just three months in age, by about $2MM in salary and are both controlled through the end of the 2023 season. Statistically, they’re nearly identical — although Castillo has handled the larger workload in recent years. Both pitch for clubs that were more focused on cutting payroll and stashing prospects than on putting together a 2022 winner. As such, both are obvious trade candidates (and have been since the winter).
The Cardinals, Mariners and Yankees have been the three most aggressive teams on the Montas/Castillo front, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports, with the Twins, Blue Jays and Padres each also in the fold to varying extents. Jon Heyman of the New York Post also hears the Yankees are involved on both hurlers and calls adding a starter “a priority” for New York.
Bolstering the rotation is similarly going to be a key objective for St. Louis. The Cardinals have lost Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz to injury in recent weeks. Flaherty is already on the 60-day injured list and will be out until at least late August due to a shoulder strain. Matz tore the MCL in his left knee over the weekend. John Denton of MLB.com wrote a few days ago that Matz was optimistic about avoiding season-ending surgery, but he’s expected to be sidelined into September even if he can rehab without going under the knife.
The Cardinals also faced a rotation shortage at last summer’s deadline. They addressed that rather modestly, acquiring veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ as strike-throwing stabilizers at the back of the rotation. Robert Murray of FanSided reported last night the front office was looking for a higher-impact hurler than a Lester/Happ type this year, and a pursuit of Castillo and/or Montas certainly aligns with that assessment. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, meanwhile, writes that the Cardinals have explored the market for both impending free agents and starters with multiple remaining seasons of club control.
New York, meanwhile, recently lost Luis Severino to the injured list on account of a lat strain. New York welcomed back Domingo Germán to take his rotation spot, but there’s not a ton of proven healthy depth beyond their top five. The Yankees have also seen righty Jameson Taillon scuffle of late, leaving them scouring the market for additional help. Like the Cardinals, they seem to be casting a wide net. In addition to high-impact hurlers in the Castillo/Montas range, they’ve also been linked to Pittsburgh’s José Quintana, who’d be a lower-cost depth pickup at the back end.
As for the Mariners, they have a range of areas they can add over the next six days. The M’s just wrapped up a sweep of the Rangers to pull to 54-45. They’re ten games back of the Astros in the AL West but in possession of the American League’s second Wild Card spot. They’re three games clear of the Guardians, the non-playoff team with the best record in the league.
With a strong opportunity to snap a playoff drought that has lasted more than two decades, the Mariners are in position to seek impact talent. Seattle entered play Wednesday with the sixth-lowest rotation ERA (3.65) in the majors. They’re middle-of-the-pack from a strikeout/walk perspective, however, with both Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales posting below-average strikeout rates. There are also possible innings concerns for highly-touted rookie George Kirby, who has already tallied 96 frames this season between the minors and big leagues. That’s above the 67 2/3 innings he logged in the upper minors last year, so there’s certainly room for another starter to relieve some of the pressure on Kirby down the stretch and for what the club hopes will be a postseason run.
Twins Rumors: Mahle, Castillo, Marlins, Coulombe, Winder, Catcher
The Twins currently hold a 2.5-game lead in the American League Central, but another poor performance from a pitching staff that has squandered far too many leads this season cost them a win over the Brewers last night. Upgrading the pitching staff will be a priority for the Twins before next Tuesday’s deadline, and to that end, they’ve been in the market on both Reds ace Luis Castillo and Athletics top starter Frankie Montas, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, however, writes that the Twins are more interested in Castillo’s teammate Tyler Mahle than in Castillo himself. Hayes adds that the Twins have been in talks with the Marlins about pitching help. Minnesota and Miami, it should be noted, have had talks regarding potential swaps sending pitching to Minnesota frequently in offseasons past. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, and reliever Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro and Steven Okert are a few speculative trade candidates in the Marlins’ bullpen. Generally speaking, the Marlins are deep in pitching options that’ll appeal not only to the Twins but other clubs seeking upgrades.
Whether the preference for Mahle over Castillo — which Hayes also indicated back in the offseason — is a reflection of asking price or of the Twins’ belief that he has the superior raw stuff isn’t clear. But Mahle has flown somewhat under the radar for the past few seasons despite being quite similar, statistically, to both Castillo and Montas since 2020.
It’s hard not to wonder just what Mahle’s performance might look like in another uniform, as his numbers away from the homer-happy Great American Ball Park are tantalizing. Few pitchers have such a dramatic home/road split as Mahle, who since 2020 has pitched to a 2.93 ERA on the road but an ugly 4.89 mark at home. Mahle has allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings pitched in Cincinnati, compared to just 0.52 long balls per nine on the road. He also has a better strikeout rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate than either Castillo or Montas, dating back to 2020 — albeit with the highest walk rate of the three.
Broadly speaking, Mahle is much closer to the Montas/Castillo tier of pitcher than most pundits credit him. And, with a $5.2MM salary compared to Castillo’s $7.35MM mark, he’s a bit more affordable than his teammate and right in line with Montas ($5MM). Like that duo, he’s controlled through the 2023 season.
Mahle got out to an awful start in 2022, pitching to a 6.32 ERA through his first ten appearances. However, most of the damage against him came in two brutal outings — eight runs versus the Cubs on May 24 and seven runs against the Dodgers on April 17 — and he’s been excellent over the past two months. Dating back to May 29, Mahle has a 2.81 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 51 1/3 innings. Overall, he’s sitting on a 4.48 ERA this season, but marks like xERA (3.30) and FIP (3.78) feel he’s been quite a bit better than that. A minor shoulder strain sent him to the IL earlier this month, but Mahle returned Sunday to fire six quality innings.
Regardless of the specific names they acquire, the Twins seem nearly certain to augment both their rotation and their bullpen in the next six days. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been their only two consistently reliable arms, and their ‘pen depth took a further hit yesterday when left-hander Danny Coulombe was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Twins announced today that Coulombe required season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip, subtracting a quietly useful lefty from the mix.
The 32-year-old Coulombe is a journeyman southpaw who found a home in the Twins organization back in 2020. He only made two appearances with the Twins that season but returned on a minor league deal in 2021 and has been solid overall in the Twins’ relief corps. Dating back to 2020, Coulombe has pitched 49 1/3 innings with aa 2.92 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. He’ll get big league service time while finishing out the year on the 60-day IL, but he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following that surgery.
Meanwhile, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that promising young righty Josh Winder, one of the Twins’ brightest arms and currently the game’s No. 68 prospect at Baseball America, is being shut due to recurring shoulder discomfort. The Twins are still trying to determine the cause of the issue, but the loss of Winder, who’s already given them 45 1/3 Major League innings (3.77 ERA) is a huge hit to the Twins’ rotation and bullpen depth.
For all the focus on the Twins’ pitching staff, it’s not their only area of need. Catcher Ryan Jeffers‘ fractured thumb will sideline him for up to eight weeks, which has pushed Gary Sanchez into a starting catcher role with Minnesota. He’d previously been used more evenly between designated hitter and catcher, but Sanchez will now get the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate now. Caleb Hamilton, a 2016 23-round pick who’d never hit much above A-ball prior to this season, is currently serving as his backup.
It’s not terribly surprising, then, that Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North mentions in his latest podcast that the Twins will explore the market for a more veteran backup to Sanchez. Twins fans probably shouldn’t expect to see Willson Contreras riding into town anytime soon, but players like Tucker Barnhart or Pedro Severino jump out as possibly available veteran backups.
Wolfson adds, via Twitter, that outfield prospect Matt Wallner and infield prospect Spencer Steer have been mentioned in trade scenarios the team has had recently — and understandably so. Wallner, the No. 39 overall pick in 2019, recently jumped to Triple-A after posting a .299/.436/.597 batting line (157 wRC+) and 21 homers in 342 plate appearances with the Twins’ Double-A club. Steer, selected just 51 picks after Wallner, is hitting a combined .274/.359/.549 in 78 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He recently just landed in the No. 99 spot on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 prospect ranking. Certainly, neither Wallner nor Steer would be included in a small trade for a backup catcher, but it’s easy to see both being the type of players coveted by teams peddling controllable help in the rotation and bullpen.
NL Notes: Castillo, Moose, Solano, Matz, Longoria, Padres
Luis Castillo is drawing loads of attention as the trade deadline nears, and according to Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds‘ focus seems to be on getting young talent for Castillo rather than using him as an avenue to cut payroll. The idea of having a rival team take on Mike Moustakas‘ contract as part of a Castillo deal hasn’t come up in recent negotiations, Nightengale writes, though the Reds were open to such a concept in other talks last year. However, as Cincinnati has moved some salaries off the books in subsequent deals, payroll cuts no longer seem to be as big a priority.
Castillo isn’t the only trade chip on the roster, as the Reds put “a high asking price” on infielder Donovan Solano in recent talks with an unknown club. Solano has hit an impressive .313/.371/.450 in 89 plate appearances this season, trying to make up for lost time after a hamstring injury delayed his 2022 debut until June 22. Cincinnati inked Solano to a one-year, $4.5MM deal in March, so he would be a pure rental for any club looking to add a versatile infielder and veteran right-handed bat to the mix.
More from around the National League…
- After two months on the injured list due to a shoulder impingement, Steven Matz‘s return to the Cardinals rotation was cut short by a left knee strain. Manager Oliver Marmol told reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) that Matz will undergo an MRI tomorrow. The left-hander was pitching well before suffering the injury in the sixth inning, as he came up limping after stumbling while trying to field a grounder. The Cardinals have off-days on Monday and Thursday, so the team has some flexibility in maneuvering its rotation until a decision is made about Matz’s status.
- Evan Longoria looks to be headed back to the 10-day injured list, as the Giants veteran left tonight’s game due to a right hamstring strain. The severity of the strain isn’t yet known, but it will mark the third IL stint of the year for Longoria — he has been limited to 49 games due to finger surgery and a left oblique strain. Tommy La Stella and Brandon Crawford are also on San Francisco’s injured list, leaving the team shorter on infielders if Longoria indeed has to miss more time.
- The Padres have used a six-man rotation since the start of May, but manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) that after one turn through a five-man rotation over the last week, the club will again use five starts for at least the next week. Nick Martinez seems to have settled into a bullpen role over the last month while pitching some high-leverage innings, while MacKenzie Gore will also continue to be used out of the pen in order to help manage his innings. Gore has a combined 73 2/3 innings in the majors and minors this season, already above the 50 1/3 frames he pitched across four different minor league levels in 2021. Of course, San Diego’s pitching plans could possibly be impacted by injuries, trades, or other developments, but this rotation depth has been a major reason for the Padres’ success this year.
Astros Among Teams With Interest In Luis Castillo
Luis Castillo is among the league’s highest-profile trade candidates. The hard-throwing righty is having another excellent season, and with a year and a half of remaining club control, he’s a good bet to move from the 34-55 Reds to a contender in the next couple weeks.
Virtually every win-now team figures to inquire on Castillo, who’d upgrade any rotation. The Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Mariners, and Twins have all been linked to tied to the Cincinnati starter in recent weeks. Erik Boland of Newsday (Twitter link) and Sweeny Murti of WFAN (on Twitter) both report the Astros are also in the mix. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that teams like the Mets and Padres, who’d been linked to Castillo early in the process, are likelier to prioritize adding offensive help than an impact starter.
That said, even teams with enviable rotation depth figure to at least kick the tires on Castillo over the coming weeks. Houston’s interest is indicative of that, as they have arguably the best starting pitching outlook in the game. Astros starters rank second in the majors in ERA (3.15) and innings pitched (505), while they’re ninth in strikeout percentage (23.6%). That’s in spite of zero contributions from Lance McCullers Jr., perhaps the team’s top pitcher in 2021, as he’s rehabbed from a forearm issue.
Few teams would be able to comfortably withstand an injury to a pitcher of McCullers’ caliber, but Houston’s rotation has thrived nevertheless. All six of the Astros starters to eclipse 30 innings this season have an ERA of 4.08 or lower. Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez own sub-3.00 marks. Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia are in the mid-3.00s with strong strikeout totals, while Jake Odorizzi (3.38) and José Urquidy (4.08) have solid results despite lacking huge whiff totals.
With McCullers also expected to return at some point after the All-Star Break, the Astros certainly don’t need to add another starter. Castillo’s performance, though, is impressive enough they’ll join virtually every other contender in checking in with Reds’ general manager Nick Krall and his staff. Despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home ballpark, Castillo has a 3.49 ERA with an above-average 26.8% strikeout rate and an elite 55.2% grounder percentage over the past three and a half seasons. That includes a personal-best 2.77 ERA through 13 starts this year. Castillo’s swinging strike and ground-ball numbers are down a touch, but he’s still been better than league average in both regards.
Castillo has been especially excellent of late, pitching at peak form as the August 2 deadline draws nearer. He’s allowed one or fewer runs in each of his past four outings, striking out 33 against nine walks over his last 27 innings. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic examined Castillo’s strong recent run this morning, noting that the right-hander worked with the Cincinnati coaching staff to tweak the grip on his four-seam fastball this year.
In addition to his excellent results, the 29-year-old would be an eminently affordable pickup for acquiring teams. He’s playing this season on a $7.35MM salary, approximately $2.9MM of which will remain to be paid out after the deadline. He should be in line for a decent arbitration raise next winter, but even a 2023 salary in the $12-15MM range would be a strong bargain for a pitcher of his caliber.
Cincinnati is widely expected to field offers on both Castillo and rotation mate Tyler Mahle, who is also in his penultimate year of club control. Andy Martino of SNY reports that talks on at least the former have yet to get underway in much detail, suggesting those discussions figure to accelerate after the upcoming amateur draft. The Reds are sure to set a lofty asking price once discussions begin in earnest. Heyman wrote earlier this week that Cincinnati was looking for one of the Yankees’ top shortstop prospects, Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza, to get Castillo talks underway. Heyman suggested last night that New York remains firmly against parting with either player, even after losing Luis Severino to the injured list due to a lat strain.
Luis Castillo Drawing Widespread Interest; Reds Not Close To Any Deal
July 12: The Reds aren’t close to any trades as of this morning, tweets Jim Bowden of The Athletic, who adds that “most” contending clubs have checked in on Cincinnati. That includes both the Cardinals and the Mariners, who have not been prominently linked to Castillo until this point (but who both make logical sense as a potential landing spot).
July 11: The Dodgers and Reds have had preliminary talks about Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link). Los Angeles joins a growing list of contenders known to be in contact with the Reds front office.
Castillo is one of the sport’s most obvious trade candidates, placing fourth on MLBTR’s Top 50 list last week. The right-hander is arbitration-eligible through 2023, but Cincinnati has no hope of competing this season. With the opportunity to market two possible postseason pushes to contenders, Castillo’s value around the league will never be higher than it is this summer. Teams like the Twins, Padres, Mets, Yankees, and Blue Jays have all been reported to have inquired in recent weeks. That’s presumably not an exhaustive list, as virtually every contender is likely to check in with Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall and his staff.
The 29-year-old Castillo carries a personal-best 2.92 ERA through his first 12 starts of the season. He’s been in peak form of late, tossing 20 innings of three-run ball with 25 strikeouts and five walks over his past three outings. Of course, Castillo has a multi-year track record as one of the sport’s better pitchers. He’s allowed fewer than four earned runs per nine innings in five of his six big league campaigns. One of the game’s hardest throwers, he typically blends a rare combination of swing-and-miss and ground-ball upside. This season’s respective 25.3% strikeout rate and 49.7% grounder percentage are both down a bit from his best levels, but each remains decidedly above-average.
Castillo missed the first month of this season with shoulder soreness. That set him off on a less than ideal start, but he’s rounded into form over the past few weeks. Although his fastball velocity was down a tick in May, he’s built arm strength as the season has worn on. According to Statcast, Castillo has averaged 97.7 MPH on his four-seam and 97.1 MPH on his sinker through his two starts this month. That’s in line with or better than last year’s respective 97.1 MPH and 97.3 MPH season averages, seemingly putting away any concerns clubs might’ve had stemming from his early-season injury.
Alongside teammate Tyler Mahle and A’s hurler Frankie Montas, Castillo is one of three high-octane controllable starters widely expected to be available at the deadline. Mahle is on the 15-day injured list with a shoulder strain, while Montas is dealing with some shoulder inflammation. Mahle has indicated he expects to be reinstated well in advance of the August 2 deadline, though, and the A’s remain hopeful that Montas can avoid the IL entirely and start this week (link via Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle). Even if all three pitchers are healthy, one could argue for Castillo to land the strongest return based on his track record and recent dominance.
The Reds are understandably setting their sights high in discussions. Jon Heyman of the New York reports that Cincinnati has sought one of Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza as a headliner in talks with the Yankees. Each player is a top shortstop prospect, with Volpe topping the Yankees’ farm rankings and placing among the 15 best farmhands leaguewide at each of Baseball America, FanGraphs, ESPN and the Athletic heading into the 2022 season. Peraza is generally regarded as the second or third-best player in the New York system; he landed second in the organization and 79th overall on BA’s recent Top 100 update.
It’s hard to envision New York parting with Volpe in any trade, but a player of Peraza’s caliber is a reasonable starting point for the Cincinnati front office. The Blue Jays sent the Twins two prospects generally regarded as top 100 talents (Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson) for a year and a half of José Berríos’ services last summer. Martin was a somewhat divisive player but just a season removed from being drafted fifth and ranked by most outlets as a top 50 overall talent at the time of the deal.
Peraza isn’t having a great season offensively in Triple-A (.242/.313/.411 through 275 plate appearances), but he’s young for the level, having just turned 22. He’s viewed as a strong defensive player, and the Yankees’ belief in he and Volpe was cited frequently as a reason for the club declining to aggressively pursue the big-ticket free agent shortstops available last winter.
Whether or not the Yankees are willing to entertain the possibility of putting Peraza in a Castillo trade, the lofty reported ask reflects the Reds’ leverage in dangling an arm of his caliber. They’ll certainly look towards the upper ranks of the farm systems of other clubs inquiring over the next few weeks. In all likelihood, talks with myriad teams will continue until the days immediately preceding the deadline and perhaps into August 2 itself.
East Notes: Castillo, Jays, Orioles, Marte, Kiermaier, Nationals
Luis Castillo was a Blue Jays trade target last winter, and unsurprisingly, Toronto continues to have interest in Castillo’s services, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Though Castillo missed the first month of the season due to shoulder soreness, he has been in strong form with a 2.92 ERA over 71 innings, even if his Statcast numbers aren’t quite as reflective of top-notch performance. Castillo’s walk rate and hard-contact numbers are only okay, though his strikeout rate (25.3%) is well above league average and he still has elite fastball velocity.
The Reds right-hander is one of the very best players (let alone pitchers) expected to be available as the deadline approaches, making him a natural fit for a Toronto club in sore need of pitching upgrades. Between Hyun Jin Ryu‘s Tommy John surgery and underwhelming performances from Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi, the faulty rotation has been the chief reason for the Jays’ struggles in the last month, which is why Nightengale writes that the Blue Jays “are expected to be the most aggressive team pursuing starting pitching help.” Last summer’s trade for Berrios is an example of how the Toronto front office hasn’t been hesitant to pay a big price for a player they want and need, though the Blue Jays will face plenty of competition for Castillo’s services.
More from both the AL East and NL East…
- Also from Nightengale, the Orioles‘ surprisingly strong play seemingly hasn’t changed the club’s long-term plans, as Baltimore is “expected to unload” several notable veterans. The list of names includes both impending free agents like Trey Mancini, Rougned Odor, and Jordan Lyles, plus more controllable players like Anthony Santander and All-Star closer Jorge Lopez. It’s safe to assume that the price tag will be a lot higher for Lopez and Santander than the others, but regardless, the O’s likely aren’t going to change course and start thinking about a playoff push.
- Starling Marte left Saturday’s game due to a groin injury, and Marte wasn’t in the Mets lineup on Sunday. However, Marte is only day-to-day, as manager Buck Showalter told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo) that an MRI revealed only minor inflammation and no serious damage. Marte has been a big contributor in his first year in New York, and his first-half performance earned him a slot on the NL All-Star team earlier today. With this groin injury lingering, however, Marte might opt to skip the game to rest up over the break.
- Kevin Kiermaier was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier today, marking the second time this month that a nagging hip injury has put the Rays outfielder on the shelf. Kiermaier told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that he received a cortisone shot during his first IL stint, but now that the issue has returned, he’ll be visiting a specialist to further explore the injury. “There’s just a lot of unknowns right now with what’s to come….I don’t really know what the future holds, to be quite honest,” Kiermaier said, noting that surgery was a possibility. A major procedure could quite possibly end Kiermaier’s season, and thus maybe his tenure with the Rays altogether, as 2022 is the final guaranteed year of his contract. Kiermaier has spent all 13 of his pro seasons in the Tampa organization, though that tenure has involved several injury absences.
- There hasn’t been much public information revealed about the Nationals‘ possible sale, but billionaire Michael B. Kim is the first name linked to the list of potential buyers, according to Barry Svrluga and Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post. Kim and another bidding group have met in person with team officials already, and a third group is also slated for in-person meetings later in July. Though there seems to be an increasing feeling that the Lerner family will indeed sell the Nationals, it is still early in the process, since “as many as five or six individuals or groups are expected to meet with club officials.”
Yankees Interested In Luis Castillo
We’ve already heard about a few teams with interest in the Reds’ starting pitching, and it isn’t surprising that the Yankees are also on that list. According to The Athletic’s Peter Gammons, the Yankees have “talked” with Cincinnati about right-hander Luis Castillo, and Reds scouts have been watching pitching prospect Will Warren (currently throwing for the Yankees’ Double-A affiliate).
Starting pitching would ostensibly not be a major priority for the Bronx Bombers, given how the rotation has been arguably the league’s best over the first three months of the season. Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes, and Jordan Montgomery have all looked excellent, and the rotation as a whole ranks first in baseball in walk rate (5.4%) and strikeout rate (25.4%), and second in cumulative fWAR (7.7) and ERA (3.00).
However, even beyond the “you can never have enough pitching” credo, there is certainly reason for Yankees GM Brian Cashman to be looking to reinforce his staff. Severino tossed only 18 regular-season innings over the course of three injury-riddled seasons from 2019-21, and thus his workload might need to be managed down the stretch. Likewise, Cortes has never thrown more than 119 2/3 combined innings in any pro season, while Taillon has also battled a number of injury problems throughout his career.
While none of Severino, Cortes, Taillon, Cole, or Montgomery have run into any real health issues thus far in 2022, that collective durability could actually be more of a reason for Cashman to proactively seek out another starter. Since it’s very rare to have an entire rotation stay intact throughout a full season, the Yankees could look to add before trouble (inevitably?) strikes, since waiting until a problem arises could decrease New York’s leverage with the Reds or any other team dangling pitching.
Gammons also figures the Yankees will make another attempt to acquire Frankie Montas, after the Yankees engaged the A’s in trade talks back in March. Castillo has also been on New York’s radar in the past, when the Bombers reportedly rejected Cincinnati’s ask of Gleyber Torres and more for Castillo back in January 2021.
The Reds will certainly have another high asking price on Castillo in the coming weeks. The righty is arguably the top pitcher available prior to the August 2 trade deadline, due to both his front-of-the-rotation ability and his contractual status — Castillo isn’t scheduled for free agency until after the 2023 season. He has been more solid than spectacular thus far in 2022, but it could be that Castillo is still ramping up after missing the first month of action due to shoulder soreness.
While Warren certainly wouldn’t be the centerpiece of any Castillo trade package, the 23-year-old righty is already gaining attention in his first year of pro ball. An eighth-round pick for the Yankees in the 2021 draft, Warren is ranked by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline as the 27th-best prospect in New York’s farm system, and he has a 3.72 ERA over 55 2/3 combined innings at high-A (35 IP) and Double-A (20 2/3 IP) in 2022. His two newest pitches are his best offerings, as the Yankees’ pitching development staff helped Warren turn his slider and two-seamer into plus pitches. It already seems like Warren would be a good fit as a relief pitcher down the road, according to Pipeline’s scouting report, though he might be able to work in a rotation if he can successfully mix his slider and two-seamer with a more average changeup and curveball.
Luis Castillo Drawing Early Trade Interest
The Reds have a pair of the top trade candidates on this summer’s market, with starting pitchers Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle each midway through their penultimate seasons of club control. Rotation-needy teams will be in discussion with Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall and his staff over the next six weeks, and a few have already expressed early interest in Castillo.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post lists the Twins, Mets and Padres among the clubs in the market. That surely won’t be an exhaustive list, as virtually every contender could find room in their starting five for a pitcher of that caliber. Castillo is playing this season on an affordable $7.35MM salary (a bit more than half of which is still owed), so most clubs shouldn’t have an issue fitting him in the picture financially.
Castillo has been one of the sport’s more consistently productive arms over the past few years. Despite spending his entire MLB career with a team that plays in one of the most hitter-friendly home ballparks, the righty has an ERA below 4.00 in five of his six seasons. That includes this year’s 3.71 mark through nine starts and 51 innings.
The 29-year-old’s underlying numbers haven’t been quite as strong in 2022 as they’d been in prior years. His 22.9% strikeout rate and 10.5% swinging strike percentage are right around this season’s respective league averages for starters. Castillo’s 49.6% ground-ball rate is strong but down from the 55-58% range in which he sat every year from 2019-21. He’s also lost a tick on the average velocity of his four-seam and sinking fastballs, perhaps related to a bout of shoulder soreness that cost him the first month of the year.
While Castillo’s first couple months might be a bit underwhelming relative to his lofty standards, there’ll still be no shortage of demand. Even his slightly diminished fastball checks in north of 96 MPH on average. His performance this season has remained solid — his 3.71 ERA and 3.88 SIERA are below the respective 4.10 and 4.09 league marks for starters — and the native of the Dominican Republic has shown impact potential in the past. Between 2019-21, Castillo ranked among the top 25 qualified pitchers in ERA and strikeout rate and posted the sport’s second-highest grounder percentage.
With that kind of resume, it’s no surprise rival teams are in contact with the Reds already. The Twins are among the most straightforward candidates for a rotation pickup, and they also figure to explore the market for other high-end arms like Mahle and the A’s Frankie Montas. Minnesota enters play Thursday percentage points back of the Guardians in the AL Central, with the White Sox looming as a divisional threat four games behind them. Minnesota’s rotation started strong but has been tagged for a 4.80 ERA over the past month, a stretch that’s coincided with injured list stints for Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack (the latter of whom is done for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery).
The Mets, on the other hand, have a star-studded rotation when healthy. Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tylor Megill are all currently on the injured list, and they’ve been on the periphery of the market for most available stars over the past twelve months. Scherzer is expected back imminently (perhaps as soon as this weekend), while deGrom continues to progress from the scapula stress reaction he suffered during Spring Training. The club is hopeful he’ll back before the August 2 deadline, but Megill is likely to be on the shelf beyond that point.
One could argue that New York should prioritize areas beyond rotation help, but the Padres’ presence in the Castillo market illustrates that even teams without a clear need figure to at least perform due diligence. San Diego already has an excellent six-man staff of Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea, Yu Darvish, MacKenzie Gore, Mike Clevinger and Blake Snell. That’s forced offseason signee Nick Martinez into a swing role, and prevailing opinion is they’re likelier to deal from that surplus than add another impact starter. Between their rotation depth and the fact they’re right up against the $230MM base competitive balance tax threshold, the Friars feel like a longshot to land an arm of Castillo’s caliber. That was perhaps true of Manaea as well, however, and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has shown time and again he’s willing to act boldly to land players the organization desires.
No Castillo deal is imminent, of course, and there’ll be plenty more teams in the bidding over the coming weeks. The Reds don’t have to move either he or Mahle with an additional season of control, but their trade value will probably never again be as high as it’ll be this summer. At 23-46, Cincinnati has no chance of contending this year. Moving Castillo and/or Mahle would deal a key blow to the 2023 roster, but this year’s struggles may hint at a broader overhaul being necessary. The Reds didn’t go into this season intending to rebuild, but their efforts to remain competitive while subtracting some key players to pare back payroll were dashed out of the gate by a 3-18 showing in April.
Reds Designate Phillip Diehl, Re-Sign Buck Farmer
TODAY: Farmer did reject the outright assignment and become a free agent, but then re-signed with the Reds on a new minor league contract.
MAY 9: The Reds announced this afternoon they’ve designated left-handed reliever Phillip Diehl for assignment. The move opens an active roster spot for Luis Castillo, who was reinstated from the injured list to start tonight’s game as expected.
Diehl, a Cincinnati native, was selected to the majors by his hometown club in late April. It marked his first MLB call since a 2019-20 stint with the Rockies, and he ultimately appeared in five games. Diehl allowed seven runs in just 5 2/3 innings, with his three home runs allowed proving a particular undoing. The longball had also been problematic during his time in Colorado, and Diehl has now surrendered six homers in 19 big league innings.
The 27-year-old is out of minor league option years, meaning the Reds had to bump Diehl off the 40-man roster if they weren’t going to keep him in the majors. In so doing, they remove the only southpaw bullpen option who’d been on the major league team. Veteran Justin Wilson is on the injured list, and starter Reiver Sanmartín — recently optioned to Triple-A Louisville — is rather remarkably the only currently healthy left-handed pitcher on the Reds’ 40-man roster.
The Reds will have a week to trade Diehl or try to run him through waivers. He struck out 11 batters while issuing just one walk in eight innings with the Bats before being called up, so it stands to reason they’d prefer to keep him in the organization as a non-roster player. Diehl has been outrighted in the past and would have the right to elect minor league free agency if he clears waivers, however.
Cincinnati also announced that reliever Buck Farmer, who had been designated for assignment on Friday, passed through waivers unclaimed and was outrighted to Louisville. The team didn’t specify whether Farmer had chosen to accept or reject the assignment. As a player with five-plus years of big league service time, Farmer can forego the minors in favor of free agency while still collecting what remains of this year’s $850K salary.
Reds To Activate Luis Castillo From 10-Day Injured List
Luis Castillo will make his season debut on Monday, as the Reds will activate the right-hander from the 10-day injured list to start their game against the Brewers. Castillo suffered soreness in his throwing shoulder during Spring Training, which required an IL visit and a late start to his 2022 campaign.
The former All-Star has allowed only a single earned run over 10 1/3 innings during his minor league rehab assignment, albeit with a troubling eight walks. Nevertheless, the focus on rehab assignments is more health and tune-up work rather than results, and after three rehab outings, Castillo appears to be ready to return to the Show.
Counting Castillo since he has yet to be officially activated, the Reds have a whopping 14 players on the injured list, which has been a big factor in the team’s disastrous start. Even after winning two of three games in their weekend series with the Pirates, Cincinnati has only a 5-23 record.
It is a lot to ask of Castillo to try and turn things around for the Reds by himself, and it remains to be seen if the right-hander will immediately be in good form once he takes the mound. Castillo has traditionally been something of a slow starter, as April and May are his worst months by ERA. If it takes him a while to really get going, it will not only impact whatever tiny chance the Reds have of getting on track, but it would also hamper Castillo’s value as a possible trade chip heading into the deadline. Since Castillo is controlled (via arbitration) through the 2023 season, the Reds should be able to command a nice trade return for Castillo, assuming that he is pitching like his usual self.