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Marco Gonzales

Braves Likely To Trade Marco Gonzales

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Last night’s Braves/Mariners trade saw Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White go from Seattle to Atlanta, but it seems Gonzales’ stay with the Braves will be brief. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Braves aren’t planning to keep Gonzales and expect to move him in another trade. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times adds that Gonzales himself expected as much to happen after being informed he’d been traded to Atlanta. It’s not yet clear if there’s an imminent trade involving Gonzales or if he’s being shopped around at present, but it’s a notable revelation with regard to the Braves’ rotation outlook all the same.

Gonzales, 32 in February, is due to earn $12MM this season in the final season of a four-year, $30MM extension he signed back in 2020. The contract also contains a $15MM club option for the 2025 season, which does not come with a buyout.

The soft-tossing Gonzales was a quality member of the Seattle rotation from 2018-22, pitching 765 2/3 innings of 3.94 ERA ball along the way. He became quite homer-prone in 2021, however, and saw an already below-average strikeout rate dip to concerning levels in 2022. Gonzales still posted a solid earned run average over those two seasons, but the home run and strikeout trends were noted red flags.

While the lefty managed to cut back on the homers he allowed in 2023, Gonzales was still tagged for a grim 5.22 ERA in 50 innings. His 15.8% strikeout rate was one of the lowest in the game and the second-worst of his Mariners tenure. His 8.4% walk rate was the worst of his career. Three of his ten starts last year were actually quite serviceable, but Gonzales was clobbered for eight runs on two occasions and also served up four runs through five innings in his first outing of the year. Ultimately, a left forearm strain ended his season in late May.

For the Braves, it’s sensible to see them look to move Gonzales elsewhere. He’d at best have been a fifth starter candidate in a team that boasts Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder in the top four spots on the staff. His $12MM salary also pushed the Braves into the second tier of luxury penalization.

The Associated Press reports that Seattle is set to send $4.5MM to Atlanta to cover part of that $12MM sum — $12.25MM, if counting the $250K assignment bonus Gonzales received as part of being traded. As such, the Braves would only owe Gonzales about $7.75MM in actual salary, but he’s still cost them a bit more than $10MM once factoring in the penalties the team would’ve incurred under the competitive balance tax.

That’s probably more than the Braves care to spend on a back-of-the-rotation candidate who’s not clearly a superior option to in-house candidates like AJ Smith-Shawver and Dylan Dodd, and it might even be more than Gonzales could expect to command on the open market after an injury-marred season. Presumably, if and when Gonzales changes hands a second time, those cost-savings will be redirected to his new team.

While Gonzales perhaps isn’t a fit for a win-now Braves club with at least four healthier and better options in the rotation ahead of him, that doesn’t mean he can’t help another club. There are several teams throughout the league — Royals, A’s, Rockies, White Sox, Padres, Nationals to name a few — who are simply looking for innings to round out the starting staff. Gonzales’ 50 frames last year don’t paint the picture of an innings eater, but he’d averaged 30 starts and 174 frames over his past four 162-game seasons prior to 2023 (plus 11 starts and 69 2/3 innings in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign). If Gonzales’ medicals show that the forearm strain which ended his season is in the rearview mirror, another club might feel it can comfortably rely on him for 150ish innings this coming season. And if the Mariners are footing roughly a third of the bill regardless of where Gonzales lands, he could be viewed as a relatively affordable source of those innings at a time when veteran free agents in their late 30s (i.e. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson) are commanding $12-13MM for similar roles.

Braves Acquire Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, Evan White From Mariners

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The Braves have acquired outfielder Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times, left-hander Marco Gonzales and first baseman Evan White are also headed to Atlanta in the deal. In return, the Mariners will receive right-handers Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips. The Braves have since announced the deal, which includes cash considerations headed from Seattle to Atlanta.

Kelenic, the sixth-overall pick in the 2018 draft and a former consensus top-5 prospect in the sport, struggled to a .168/.251/.338 slash line in 558 trips to the plate across his first two seasons in the majors. Despite the brutal start to Kelenic’s big league career, he managed to put together a solid campaign in 2023 as Seattle’s regular left fielder. In 416 trips to the plate across 105 games, the youngster slashed a solid .253/.327/.419. Now Kelenic, who is not yet eligible for arbitration, heads to Atlanta with five seasons of team control remaining coming off a career-best season in the majors where he posted a wRC+ of 108.

Even that performance came with some red flags, however. While Kelenic walked at an above average 9.9% clip, his 31.7% strikeout rate ranked in just the seventh percentile among qualified hitters and his overall slash line surely benefited from a .359 BABIP. He also struggled considerably after a hot April, slashing just .235/.314/.356 the rest of the way. That said, it’s worth noting that Kelenic, who will play the 2024 season at just age-24, posted a .321 wOBA in 2023 that was actually 12 points lower than his expected number of .333. Additionally, his .359 BABIP in 2023 may not be as outlandish as his career .268 mark in the majors may suggest, as he’s never posted a BABIP lower than .323 at the Triple-A level in a season during his career. In addition, it’s possible his late-season numbers are skewed by the fact that the 24-year-old missed more than two months after he suffered a fractured foot from kicking a water cooler back in July.

Looking ahead to 2024, The Athletic’s David O’Brien relays that the Braves plan to have Kelenic and Vaughn Grissom compete for the everyday role in left field during the spring, with a platoon situation between the two possible as Grissom looks to split time between the left field and the infield dirt. That said, it certainly seems possible that Kelenic could earn an everyday role in Atlanta if he shows his step forward in 2023 wasn’t a fluke. Even if Kelenic simply repeats his 2023 campaign he would represent a notable upgrade over Eddie Rosario, who drew 122 starts in left field for the Braves last year while slashing just .255/.305/.450 (100 wRC+) in 516 trips to the plate.

To acquire Kelenic, the Braves take on the salaries of both Gonzales and White. Gonzales is owed $12.25MM in 2024, while White is owed $7MM in 2024, $8MM in 2025, and a $2MM buyout on a $10MM club option for 2026. While it’s not currently known how much cash Atlanta received in the deal, it’s fair to assume the Braves are taking on the majority of that nearly $30MM in guaranteed money, including $19.25MM in dollars owed this next season. Before accounting for the cash received from Seattle, the deal pushes Atlanta’s 2024 payroll to just over $224MM and just under $261MM for luxury tax purposes, per RosterResource. If that projection holds going forward, it would put the Braves just over the second luxury tax threshold, which sits at $257MM for the 2024 campaign.

Gonzales, 32 in February, struggled to a 5.22 ERA in 50 innings across ten starts this season before undergoing season-ending surgery to repair a nerve issue in his forearm. Gonzales is expected to be ready for Spring Training in 2024 and, if healthy, could provide the Braves with a serviceable back-end rotation option who could give competition to Reynaldo Lopez and Bryce Elder in Spring Training. Prior to his injury-marred 2023 season, Gonzales had been a reliable source of innings for the Mariners in recent years, averaging 174 innings of work across four 162-game seasons between 2018 and 2022. Gonzales’s contract includes a $15MM club option for the 2025 season that does not include a buyout, though Gonzales would likely have to take a significant step forward in 2024 for the Braves to consider exercising that option.

White, 27, does not figure to be a contributor to the Braves over the life of his contract. The former top prospect owns a career .165/.235/.308 slash line in the majors and has not appeared in the big leagues since May 2021. Over the past two seasons, White has appeared in just 30 professional games with a slash line of just .200/.310/.397 at the Triple-A level during that time. White spent almost the entire 2023 campaign on the 60-day IL, first due to a left adductor strain and then thanks to hip surgery, though he too is expected to be ready for Spring Training.

In addition to taking on the salaries of White and Gonzales, the Braves parted with a pair of interesting young arms in Kowar and Phillips. Kowar’s stay in the Braves organization was a short one, as the righty had just been acquired from the Royals last month as the return in the Kyle Wright trade. As a former top-100 prospect and Kansas City’s first-round pick in the 2018 draft, Kowar is an intriguing piece despite his struggles in the majors to this point in his career. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted at the time of his trade to Atlanta, Kowar averaged 97 mph on his fastball in 2023 after converting to full-time relief duties and thanks to his eligibility for a fourth option year in 2024 figures to provide the Mariners with a fireballing, optionable relief arm headed into next season. Phillips, meanwhile, was Atlanta’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft. The 20-year-old has not yet made his professional debut after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but ranked as the Braves’ #7 prospect per MLB Pipeline prior to the swap.

As for the Mariners, the club is clearly in the midst of retooling their lineup. The club has traded both Kelenic and third baseman Eugenio Suarez and non-tendered DH Mike Ford since the offseason began while watching Teoscar Hernandez depart via free agency, leaving four major holes in the club’s lineup. That being said, the departures of those four players figure to help Seattle in their quest to improve their lineup’s contact skills next season; each of the aforementioned hitters struck out more than 30% of the time in 2024. Parting ways with four of the league’s most punchout prone bats is an excellent start toward that goal, even as the club faces an uphill battle in replacing the quartet’s production.

While replacing four members of the club’s starting lineup is no easy task, Seattle at least figures to have plenty of payroll space with which to accomplish that goal. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $115MM in 2024 pending the addition of cash considerations sent to Atlanta, while Adam Judge of The Seattle Times notes that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto indicated today that the club’s payroll will “very likely” rise in 2024 relative to its 2023 total. The Mariners posted a payroll of $140MM in 2023, meaning the club should have more than $25MM worth of room to make additions to their lineup, though it’s unclear how much Seattle is willing to surpass that $140MM figure.

Even with that amount of money available for additions, it’s worth noting that the club would need to significantly increase payroll over its 2023 levels to be able to make even one impact addition on the level of, for example, Cody Bellinger or Juan Soto. Given the number of holes the Mariners will need to fill in their lineup, it seems more likely that the club will be limited to adding mid-level salaries to its payroll. The free agent market is unlikely to offer many solutions, with the best mid-level bats such as Hernandez and Matt Chapman being among the more strikeout-prone players available this winter.

That said, the club has reportedly discussed deals for both outfielder Randy Arozarena and third baseman Isaac Paredes with the Rays recently. Adding even one of those players would surely require significant capital in terms of prospects and young players, though it’s worth noting that the Rays appear to be on the hunt for controllable starting pitching, which the Mariners have an excess of. Speculatively speaking, swinging a deal for Paredes and/or Arozarena would allow Seattle to shore up its lineup without breaking the bank, allowing the club to pursue contact-oriented bats like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Whit Merrifield in free agency.

Mariners Leadership Discusses Offseason Plans, Injury Updates, Coaching Staff

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Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, GM Justin Hollander, and manager Scott Servais conducted an end-of-season press conference with reporters this afternoon. The presser covered a variety of topics, including the club’s plans for the offseason, the future of the coaching staff, and updates regarding a few of the club’s injured players.

Dipoto took the opportunity to respond to comments from catcher Cal Raleigh on the night of Seattle’s elimination from postseason contention, in which he called upon the front office to spend more aggressively this offseason than the club has in the past and referenced other teams that acquired “big-time” pitchers and hitters in recent offseasons.

“His opinions are his own, and I don’t begrudge anybody the ability to share their opinions,” Dipoto said (as transcribed from a video courtesy of Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times), “I don’t know that the solution to our problems is big name players… but would I like to add big name players? Sure, I think we all would. I think that to the extent that Cal was trying to express an opinion, and I can’t speak for him, he wants to get better… we all do. Whether that is by way of a big-name player, you know, there are a number of teams that are evidence that that might not be the only way you can build a roster.”

For his part, Hollander added (as relayed by MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer) that the club has “plenty of resources” headed into the offseason with which to acquire talent, both in terms of player capital for potential trades and financial power, as they look to return to the postseason in 2024.  That tracks with publicly available information on Seattle’s financial situation headed into 2024. The club spent $152MM on player payroll in 2023, with the luxury tax payroll just passing $196MM. Before accounting for arbitration-level contracts, the club has around $45MM of budget space if the club’s budget remains stagnant relative to 2023, with over $75MM to work with for luxury tax purposes.

Servais, meanwhile, said (per Divish) that while the roles and responsibilities of certain personnel may change, the club expects to welcome back its entire coaching staff for the 2024 campaign. Hollander, meanwhile, provided updates on several injured players including left-hander Marco Gonzales and first baseman Evan White, both of whom are expected to be ready for Spring Training next year.

The longest-tenured member of the Mariners, rotation, Gonzales made 131 starts for the club between 2018 and 2022 with a 3.94 ERA and 4.35 FIP, but managed just 50 innings of work this season due to a nerve issue that eventually required season-ending surgery. White, meanwhile, underwent hip surgery back in May. The 27-year-old signed a $24MM extension with Seattle prior to his big league debut but has struggled to hit at the big league level, with a career slash line of just .165/.235/.308.

The biggest news, as relayed by Adam Jude of the Seattle Times, was regarding that of left-hander Robbie Ray. The 2021 AL Cy Young award winner underwent Tommy John surgery back in May, and he appears to be making progress as expected in his rehab process, with the club considering a return around the 2024 All Star break to be a “best-case scenario.” That would be just under 14 months after Ray underwent the surgery, on the quicker end of the typical Tommy John rehab for pitchers, which usually takes around 14-18 months. Ray posted a 3.71 ERA across 32 starts for the Mariners in 2022 but made just one appearance in 2023, allowing five runs (three earned) in 3 1/3 innings before departing his first start of the season due to injury.

Marco Gonzales To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery

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Mariners left-hander Marco Gonzales will undergo season-ending surgery for the nerve issue in his forearm, per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. The lefty says the recovery time is a matter of months and he will be able to begin his offseason preparations on schedule with the hope of being ready for Spring Training. He is already on the 60-day injured list.

Gonzales, 31, began the year in Seattle’s rotation but landed on the IL in early June due a forearm strain. He didn’t seem to get on a track towards a return, having been shut down in late June and never getting sent on a rehab assignment. It appears that he and the club have exhausted any non-surgical options they explored and he will now have to go under the knife. He will finish 2023 with an ERA of 5.22 over 10 starts and 50 innings pitched.

It will ultimately go down as a disappointing and frustrating year for Gonzales, but it seems there’s some light at the end of the tunnel since he expects to have a fairly normal offseason and Spring Training. 2024 will be the final guaranteed season of the extension he and the club signed in 2020, with the southpaw set to make $12MM next year, with the club having a $15MM option for 2025 with no buyout.

The Seattle rotation has lost two of its Opening Day fivesome, as Robbie Ray required Tommy John surgery in May and Gonzales ended up missing most of the year. The club has fared well despite those losses, as Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert have been joined by rookies Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller and Emerson Hancock. Woo is on the injured list but isn’t expected to miss much time. Even without him, the club still has a strong front five and is in the thick of a playoff race.

All of those players are either under contract or club control next year, which should give the club a strong on-paper rotation going into next year. If Gonzales is healthy, they have seven viable rotation members, even before counting a midseason return of Ray. Their starters already drew trade interest prior to the summer deadline but the Mariners ended up hanging onto them. Perhaps they could revisit those talks in the offseason if everyone is healthy and they have a chance to upgrade another part of their roster, though they could also opt for retaining the rookies as optional depth.

Mariners Acquire Trent Thornton From Blue Jays

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2:05pm: The Mariners have now announced the trade, with Gonzales indeed transferred to the 60-day IL as the corresponding move. The lefty has been on the IL since late May due to a left forearm strain and has yet to begin a rehab assignment. He’ll be eligible to return from the IL as soon as this weekend but that doesn’t seem to be a possibility.

2:00pm: The Mariners are acquiring right-hander Trent Thornton from the Blue Jays, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Thornton was designated for assignment last week when the Jays acquired Génesis Cabrera. The Mariners are sending infielder Mason McCoy to the Jays in exchange. The M’s will need to open a 40-man roster spot for Thornton, though they can do that fairly easily by transferring Marco Gonzales to the 60-day injured list.

Thornton, now 29, came over to the Blue Jays in a November 2018 trade that sent utility player Aledmys Díaz to the Astros. The righty jumped into Toronto’s rotation the next year and tossed 154 1/3 innings with a 4.84 earned run average. He struck out 22% of batters faced while walking 9% of them.

But in 2020, he was limited to just three starts by elbow inflammation and has been transitioned into a relief role since then. He served as a frequently-optioned depth piece for the Jays in the past few seasons, logging 100 1/3 frames in the big leagues since the start of 2021 with a 4.31 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. He’s also been able to throw 66 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level with a 2.98 ERA, striking out 21.8% of opponents while walking 10.9%.

Despite those decent numbers, Thornton was pushed down Toronto’s depth chart by other acquisitions and has only been able to make four big league appearances this year. He’s also in his final option year, meaning he’ll be out of options next year and will therefore have diminished roster flexibility. But the Mariners will still have the ability to option him for the rest of the year, allowing him to provide them with a bit of extra depth for their pitching staff. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com relays that Thornton will initially report to Triple-A Tacoma.

Heading the other way is McCoy, 28, who was originally drafted by the Orioles but was traded to the Mariners in a cash deal in April of 2022. Baseball America ranked him the 29th best prospect in Baltimore’s system in 2020, praising his glove and bat-to-ball skills but expressing some concern about a lack of future power.

Since that trade, he’s been playing for Triple-A Tacoma in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He hit 20 home runs last year but struck out in 25.8% of his plate appearances. His .256/.332/.473 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 96 in that offensively-charged environment. This year, he’s added another 11 homers but struck out at a 29.5% clip. His .234/.330/.407 line this year translates to a 77 wRC+.

Despite the subpar offense, he should have a decent floor due to his other qualities. He stole 22 bases last year and has swiped another 20 already here in 2023. He also has defensive versatility, having played the three infield positions to the left of first base as well as some brief appearances in the outfield. He will be eligible for minor league free agency at the end of this season if not added to Toronto’s 40-man roster.

Penn Murfee To Undergo Season-Ending UCL Surgery

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The Mariners are dealing with a rash of significant pitching injuries, as relayed by Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times (Twitter links one, two and three). Right-hander Penn Murfee will undergo season-ending surgery on his ulnar collateral ligament. Meanwhile, pitching prospect Taylor Dollard will undergo season-ending labrum surgery. Additionally, lefty Marco Gonzales will be shut down for two weeks due to nerve issues in his elbow.

The news is a very unfortunate development for Murfee, who has been a strong presence in Seattle’s bullpen over the past two years. He debuted last season with a 2.99 ERA in 69 1/3 innings, striking out 27.9% of opponents against a 6.6% walk rate. This year, he’s struggled with control but nonetheless dropped his ERA to 1.29. He twice landed on the injured list due to elbow inflammation and will now have to go under the knife.

It’s not exactly clear exactly what kind of surgery Murfee will require, but he’s sure to face a significant absence either way. Full ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, also known as Tommy John surgery, typical requires 14 to 18 months of recovery time. Even the internal brace alternative usually requires close to a year. That means that, in addition to missing the remainder of the 2023 season, Murfee will miss a chunk of the 2024 campaign as well.

Dollard, 24, is also set to miss the remainder of this year, though his timeline beyond that isn’t clear. He was selected by the Mariners in the fifth round of the 2020 draft and pitched in the lower levels of the club’s system in 2021. Last year, he posted a 2.25 ERA in Double-A, striking out 22.9% of opponents against a 5.4% walk rate. He figured to serve as rotation depth this year but made just three starts in Triple-A before landing on the injured list.

As for Gonzales, his timeline is still up in the air but he’s already been on the injured list for over three weeks and will now be shut down for two more. Even if he’s given a clean bill of health at that time, he’ll need to ramp back up after such a long layoff, which will push his theoretical return further down the line.

He posted a 5.22 ERA before landing on the IL but a 62.1% strand rate was likely pushing that up. His peripherals were roughly in line with his previous seasons and his 4.29 FIP suggests he may have deserved better results. The lefty may not be an ace but has a serviceable 4.02 ERA dating back to his 2018 breakout campaign.

The Mariners have some rotation challenges with Robbie Ray and Easton McGee both out for the year and Chris Flexen now designated for assignment. Bryce Miller has cooled off after a red hot start while Bryan Woo has a 5.09 ERA thus far. With Gonzales now unlikely to be available for a while, it could impact the club’s approach to the deadline. Their 38-39 record has them fourth in the American League West but just four games back of a Wild Card spot.

Mariners Keeping Bryan Woo In Rotation For Now

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Pitching prospect Bryan Woo’s debut with the Mariners didn’t go as either he or the team hoped earlier this week, as the 23-year-old righty was tagged for six runs in two innings by a formidable Rangers offense. However, with Marco Gonzales (flexor strain) and Robbie Ray (Tommy John surgery) sidelined, Woo will remain in the rotation for the time being, general manager Justin Hollander said last night (Twitter links via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and Daniel Kramer of MLB.com).

Woo is one of the more touted prospects in the Mariners’ system and showed why over the course of the nine Double-A starts that preceded his call to the big leagues. In that time, he pitched to a sterling 2.05 ERA with a 34.3% strikeout rate, a 7% walk rate, a 12.3% swinging-strike rate and just 0.41 homers per nine frames. Though he didn’t storm out of the gates like fellow rookie Bryce Miller, who also made the jump right from Double-A to the Majors, Woo will continue to start every fifth day for the time being.

To some extent, that’s largely due to lack of quality alternatives. Ray is done for the season, and while Gonzales’ injury is less severe — Hollander told Divish, Kramer and others that there’s no concern over his ulnar collateral ligament — he won’t be back anytime soon, either. Gonzales likened the injury to one that cost him about five weeks of the 2021 season, per Hollander. If this is indeed similar, he’ll likely be out beyond the 15-day minimum and require a minor league rehab stint before returning late this month or in early July.

Veteran righty Chris Flexen was a key member of Seattle’s rotation for much of the 2021-22 seasons, but he’s struggling through one of the worst seasons of his professional career. Currently pitching in long relief after four rough starts early in the year, Flexen has been rocked for a 7.13 ERA in 35 1/3 frames. His 16.8% strikeout rate is below average but right in line with his 2021-22 levels. However, his walk rate has spiked to 9.3% — his worst as a Mariner — and he’s been rocked for an alarming 2.04 homers per nine innings pitched.

A .351 average on balls in play hasn’t helped Flexen’s cause, and his 20.5% homer-to-flyball rate figures to drop off, given his career 10.8% mark in that regard. Still, his performance of late hasn’t justified another look in the rotation. After beginning his time in the bullpen with eight shout innings, Flexen has yielded runs in three straight outings, yielding a combined seven runs on ten hits (three of them homers) and three walks in his past six frames.

Further depth options for Seattle are also banged up. Right-hander Easton McGee underwent Tommy John surgery last month, and Hollander noted that veteran Tommy Milone and journeyman Jose Rodriguez are both on the minor league injured list at the moment. The same is true of prospect Taylor Dollard, who hasn’t pitched in Triple-A since mid-April. Former first-rounder Emerson Hancock is healthy in Double-A but has been wildly inconsistent this season; he’s sitting on a 5.44 ERA, though nearly all of the damage against him has been done in three starts that have seen him yield nine, seven and six runs. He has a 1.45 ERA in his other eight appearances — including six shutout frames with seven strikeouts last night — but it’s understandable if the Mariners feel Woo’s Double-A consistency makes him the better option at the moment.

As things stand, Seattle’s rotation is still on generally solid ground. Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert have ranged from good to dominant thus far, and the aforementioned Miller’s career began in historic fashion through five starts before he was clobbered in his sixth and seventh outings. The club can also harbor some optimism that Gonzales will be able to return in relatively short order, though the veteran lefty has had his own struggles with consistency in 2023, leading to a 5.22 ERA in 50 innings.

If there are further injuries and setbacks on the pitching staff, however, that could prove to impact the team’s direction at the trade deadline, which is now fewer than eight weeks away. The Mariners are currently sitting on a 30-30 record, placing them a hefty 10 games back of the first-place Rangers in the AL West but a more manageable five games out of a Wild Card spot. They’ve recently seen key bats like Julio Rodriguez, Ty France and Teoscar Hernandez come to life after extended slumps, but those surges have come in conjunction with alarming swoons from early contributors like Jarred Kelenic, Eugenio Suarez and Cal Raleigh.

Mariners To Promote Bryan Woo

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TODAY: The Mariners made the move official, selecting Woo’s contract and placing Gonzales on the 15-day IL with a forearm strain. To clear room for Woo on the 40-man roster, right-hander Easton McGee was transferred to the 60-day IL.

June 2: The Mariners are calling up pitching prospect Bryan Woo to start tomorrow’s game against the Rangers, tweets Corey Brock of the Athletic. Left-hander Marco Gonzales was slated to start but has been scratched with a forearm issue. It seems likely he’ll hit the 15-day injured list in a corresponding move, though that hasn’t yet been announced.

Woo, 23, is in the majors for the first time. A sixth round pick in 2021 out of Cal Poly, Woo has significantly elevated his stock in pro ball. He posted huge strikeout numbers in the low minors last season, cementing himself as one of the better prospects in the Seattle farm system. Baseball America slotted Woo seventh among M’s prospects over the offseason, praising his three-pitch arsenal and athleticism.

BA suggests Woo could settle in as a back-of-the-rotation starter at his peak. Keith Law of the Athletic credited Woo with mid-rotation upside but suggested spotty command could eventually push him towards a relief role. He’ll break into the big leagues as a starter, making the jump directly past Triple-A in the process.

The right-hander has made nine starts for Double-A Arkansas on the season. He’s posted a brilliant 2.05 ERA through 44 innings with an excellent 34% strikeout rate. Woo has kept his free passes to a 7% clip, a particularly promising development considering the strike-throwing questions some evaluators expressed over the winter.

Seattle has already gotten strong results from one rookie righty this season. Bryce Miller has excelled through six starts, adding an exciting complement to their already fantastic trio of Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. Gonzales has had a tougher go as the fifth starter, posting a 5.22 ERA over 50 innings.

While Gonzales has never missed many bats, he’s posted solid back-of-the-rotation numbers for the bulk of his Seattle tenure. He’s an excellent strike-thrower and has typically been durable. He missed around a month during the 2021 season with a forearm strain, however, and he’s again battling forearm issues. The extent of the injury is to be determined, as Brock notes he’s headed for further evaluation.

Chris Flexen filled in the rotation earlier this season. He struggled and was moved to the bullpen and fared much better in long relief. Flexen hasn’t pitched in four days and could’ve been an option to take a spot start in Gonzales’ stead, but the M’s have elected to dip into their farm system for one of their most talented young arms.

Woo won’t reach a full year of service time even if he’s up for good. He’ll be controllable through at least 2029 and wouldn’t qualify for arbitration until after the 2025 season at the earliest. Additional minor league assignments could push that timeline back.

The Mariners will need to formally add him to the 40-man roster tomorrow. Seattle is technically at capacity but could move either of Dylan Moore or Robbie Ray to the 60-day injured list without issue. Moore has already spent more than two months on the shelf; Ray is out for the season.

Mariners Select Tommy Milone, Designate J.B. Bukauskas

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The Mariners announced that they have selected left-hander Tommy Milone. He will take the active roster spot of fellow lefty Marco Gonzales, who has been placed on the paternity list. To open a spot on the 40-man for Milone, right-hander J.B. Bukauskas was designated for assignment.

Milone, 36, is a veteran journeyman who has suited up for the Nationals, Athletics, Twins, Mets, Mariners, Orioles, Braves and Blue Jays in his career. Though he was capable of holding down a full-time rotation spot earlier in his career, he’s mostly been called upon for emergency spot start duties or long relief in recent years. Since the end of the 2019 season, he’s made 22 appearances, including 10 starts, posting a 6.33 ERA over 69 2/3 innings. He doesn’t rack up strikeouts but has strong control, with a 5.6% walk rate in his career.

Last year, Milone made seven appearances for the M’s, posting a 5.40 ERA in 16 2/3 innings. He also tossed 40 1/3 innings in Triple-A with a 2.68 ERA. He signed a minor league deal with the club over the winter and has already made one Triple-A start here in 2023, tossing five scoreless innings back on April 4.

The Mariners went into the season with six solid starters, pushing Chris Flexen to a long relief role in the bullpen. However, Robbie Ray landed on the injured list just a few days into the season, with a rough expectation of an absence of four to six weeks. That required putting Flexen back into the rotation and now Milone will step up to start tonight’s game while Gonzales steps away for the birth of his child. Stints on the paternity list are allowed for between one and three days, so it seems likely this will be just a single spot start for Milone.

That roster shuffling results in Bukauskas being designated for assignment for the third time in as many months. The former first round pick was let go by the Diamondbacks over the offseason. Seattle grabbed him off waivers but quickly DFA him themselves. He went unclaimed that time and stuck in the organization. The M’s brought him back last week but will take him back off the roster following one appearance.

Bukauskas has 22 MLB games under his belt. He’s allowed 21 runs in 18 2/3 innings at the highest level, though he did post a 2.66 ERA over 20 1/3 Triple-A frames last year. The Mariners will have a week to deal him or put him back on waivers. Because he’s already gone unclaimed once, Bukauskas would have the ability to elect minor league free agency if he clears waivers.

Poll: Will The Mariners Trade Chris Flexen?

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Early in the offseason, it looked as though there was a good chance the Mariners would move one of their two candidates for the fifth spot in the rotation. The quartet of Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby create a standout set of options in slots one through four, and Seattle has a pair of solid back-of-the-rotation options in Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen. Behind that duo, prospects like Emerson Hancock, Bryce Miller and Taylor Dollard have all reached Double-A and enjoyed success there, placing them within reasonable proximity of MLB readiness. Miller, in particular, cracked the back of some top-100 lists this year, landing 74th on Kiley McDaniel’s list at ESPN, 98th at MLB.com and 100th at Baseball America.

It’s a strong collection of depth, and the presence of Miller, Hancock and Dollard seemed like it could be enough to sway the Mariners to move one of Flexen or Gonzales. Flexen, as a free agent next offseason* with a palatable $8MM salary — compared to the $18.5MM still owed to Gonzales through 2024 — seemed to be the likeliest candidate. That’s true not only from an on-paper standpoint, but also when considering that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto plainly acknowledged in November that he’d been receiving trade interest in Flexen at the annual general managers’ meetings.

(*=There seems to be some continued confusion regarding this, as Flexen won’t have six years of Major League service time after the season, but MLBTR has confirmed that he will become a free agent next winter, as is the case with the vast majority of KBO/NPB signees whose free agent contracts expire.)

The Mariners, however, were never going to give Flexen away just to shed his salary, and the fact that he remains with the club is a clear indicator that another club has yet to put forth an offer Dipoto & Co. felt was commensurate with Flexen’s value. The extent of that value is subjective, but Flexen would be a clear upgrade to the back of several teams’ rotations.

Since returning from a successful one-year stint in the Korea Baseball Organization, he’s pitched to a 3.66 ERA in 317 2/3 innings. Granted, his 92.4 mph average fastball and 16.5% strikeout rate are below average, but Flexen also has sharp command (6.8% walk rate). He keeps lefties in check with the help of an above-average changeup and has generally done a good job keeping the ball in the yard since his MLB return. Flexen has benefited slightly from a pitcher-friendly home environment, but his numbers away from T-Mobile Park (3.75 ERA, 1.12 HR/9) are only slightly worse than those compiled when pitching at home in Seattle (3.57 ERA, 0.91 HR/9).

Because Flexen’s numbers were superior to those of Gonzales across the board, some argued that Gonzales should be the odd man out, despite his relatively lengthy tenure with the club. Gonzales is nearly three years older, however, has more than double the money remaining on his contract. Flexen’s trade value was and is higher, and while he alone wouldn’t have fetched a substantial upgrade to the Seattle lineup, he could certainly have been included in a package that worked toward that endgame.

Now, however, the majority of the teams around the game have exhausted the bulk of their offseason budget and filled the rotation vacancies that existed early in the winter. That ostensibly points toward both Flexen and Gonzales beginning the year with Seattle, perhaps with one in a long relief role. It’s always possible that a spring injury elsewhere on the staff would necessitate a scenario wherein both Flexen and Gonzales are part of the Opening Day rotation.

That said, the injury component still looms as a possibility for other clubs. Even teams that right now believe their rotations to be full could run into trouble over the next 50 days. Nary a spring training goes by without multiple pitchers going down to major injury; situations like the one that popped up today in Milwaukee — where Aaron Ashby is being slowed by shoulder fatigue — are commonplace this time of year. As the exhibition season wears on, more severe injuries that threaten long chunks (or the entirety) of an established pitcher’s season will arise. Many teams are in positions like the Mariners, where they have the depth to withstand such a hit. Others, however, are already looking at questionable depth beyond their top few names (e.g. White Sox, Blue Jays, Padres — to varying extents).

Injuries are an inevitability this time of year, and the Mariners’ depth will likely be attractive to other clubs as health troubles throughout the league arise. Seattle may prefer to stockpile that depth, but moving Flexen would likely free up some resources to expand the budget for in-season acquisitions. It’s also possible that they take on some salary to address another need on the big league roster by way of the Flexen trade itself.

For what it’s worth, Corey Brock of The Athletic speculated in his latest mailbag that the Mariners will ultimately find a deal for Flexen during spring training when an injury on another club creates a need, though it’s just as possible that said injury occurs on Seattle’s staff and takes Flexen out of the trade equation entirely.

Let’s put this one up to a vote for MLBTR readers to weigh in (link to poll)…

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