Pirates’ Jason Delay Undergoes Knee Surgery
Pirates catcher Jason Delay underwent surgery to repair the meniscus in his right knee, the team informed reporters (via the MLB.com injury tracker). It’ll be six weeks before he’s cleared to return to baseball activities. He’ll surely need to embark on a minor league rehab stint once he’s ready for game action.
Delay only made one appearance before going on the shelf. He’s currently on the 10-day injured list but should move to the 60-day IL once the team needs to create a 40-man roster spot. The righty-hitting backstop got into 70 games a year ago, hitting .251/.319/.347 in 187 trips. That’s below-average but hardly disastrous production for a solid defensive catcher.
The Bucs lost presumptive catcher Endy Rodríguez to an offseason injury that required season-ending elbow surgery. They signed Yasmani Grandal to a $2.5MM free agent deal. Plantar fasciitis sent him to the IL before Opening Day. Delay’s injury almost immediately put a third catcher on the shelf. The Pirates acquired former #2 overall pick Joey Bart in a DFA trade with the Giants. He’s splitting time with another one-time top draftee, Henry Davis, behind the plate.
Davis has had a very tough start to the year, hitting .173/.286/.231 in 64 plate appearances. He has nevertheless remained the clear #1 option above Bart, who has only gotten three starts. Bart is out of minor league options, so the Bucs could be faced with a tough roster decision once Grandal is ready to return. For the time being, the Pirates figure to stick with their duo of former top picks.
The Pirates also provided an update on starter Marco Gonzales. The southpaw went on the 15-day IL over the weekend after he was diagnosed with a forearm strain. Gonzales will be completely shut down from throwing for a few weeks, but there’s presently no consideration of surgery. Pittsburgh recalled righty Quinn Priester from Triple-A to start tonight’s game against the Red Sox. He could hold a rotation spot while Gonzales is on the shelf.
Pirates Place Marco Gonzales On 15-Day Injured List
The Pirates announced this morning that they’ve placed left-hander Marco Gonzales on the 15-day injured list with a forearm strain. Right-hander Ryder Ryan was recalled in the corresponding move.
It’s an unfortunate turn of events for Pittsburgh, as the club has gotten off to a hot start this season with a 10-5 record that puts them just one game back of the Brewers in the NL Central. Much of that success has been attributable to Gonzales, who has posted a sterling 2.65 ERA and 3.60 FIP through three starts this season, including quality starts against tough offenses in Baltimore and Philadelphia. Gonzales’s success has helped to mask the struggles of staff ace Mitch Keller, who has allowed 12 runs (ten earned) in his 17 innings of work to this point in the season.
Gonzales’s strong start to the 2024 season comes as something of a surprise. While he posted three consecutive seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA from 2019 to 2021 with the Mariners, he’s struggled badly with injuries and ineffectiveness in recent years with a 4.36 ERA and 4.89 FIP across 42 starts from 2022-23 before his 2023 campaign was halted by surgery to repair a nerve issue in his forearm. This offseason, Gonzales was traded twice in the span of two days, first being shipped from Seattle to Atlanta in the deal that brought Jarred Kelenic to the Braves before immediately being flipped to the Pirates in exchange for a player to be named later or cash.
Given the minimal acquisition cost for the Pittsburgh, the trade was already looking like a clear success just three starts into Gonzales’s tenure as a Pirate. That could certainly still be the case, but without many details regarding the specifics of Gonzales’s injury or his timeline for return, it’s impossible to know just how long the Pirates will be without the lefty. Any forearm issues are always concerning for a pitcher, though that’s perhaps especially true of Gonzales given the forearm problem that ended his 2023 season and ultimately required surgery.
With Johan Oviedo set to miss the 2024 campaign and Gonzales now potentially facing a significant absence of his own, the Pirates will have to look to their pitching depth to fill out the club’s rotation behind Keller, Martin Perez, Jared Jones, and Bailey Falter. The obvious choice for that role would be 2023 first overall pick Paul Skenes, though the league’s consensus top pitching prospect has recorded just one out in the fourth inning and maxed out at 64 pitches to this point in the season, suggesting he made need time to build up to five-plus innings of work before joining the big league club even if Pittsburgh decides to promote their flamethrowing phenom.
Barring the club deciding to promote Skenes, they have plenty of other options at the Triple-A level to replace Gonzales. Perhaps the cleanest choice would be right-hander Quinn Priester, who is already on the club’s 40-man roster and and made eight starts for the club last year. Another option would be veteran righty Domingo German, who signed a minor league deal with the club this winter after many years as a quality back-of-the-rotation arm with the Yankees.
In the meantime, the Pirates have called up Ryan, who turns 29 next month. The right-hander signed with the club on a minor league deal this past winter after making a one-inning cameo with the Mariners last year for his big league debut. Ryan ultimately made the club’s Opening Day roster but struggled in his first extended look at the major league level, surrendering four runs on six hits and two walks despite a solid 26.1% strikeout rate across his four appearances. Ryan will now get another look with the big league club, adding depth to the club’s bullpen alongside the likes of Colin Holderman and Hunter Stratton.
Pirates Acquire Marco Gonzales
The Pirates announced the acquisition of left-hander Marco Gonzales and cash considerations from the Braves. Atlanta receives a player to be named later or cash in return. The move comes just two days after Atlanta landed Gonzales as part of a five-player trade with the Mariners, yet it was already expected that Gonzales would be quickly flipped to another team.
Pittsburgh will presumably now be Gonzales’ final landing spot of the offseason, as the southpaw brings some experience to a Pirates team sorely in need of rotation help. Beyond ace Mitch Keller, the Bucs’ projected starting staff is thin on MLB service time and lacking in quality results at the big league level. Roansy Contreras, Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, and Quinn Priester were lined up as the next four in the rotation, as Johan Oviedo will miss all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows won’t be options until closer to midseason due to TJ procedures of their own from last April. 2023 first overall draft pick Paul Skenes is expected to be on a fast track to the big leagues as early as next season, yet with only 6 2/3 pro innings on his resume, it is too early to assume Skenes is a lock for his MLB debut in 2024.
This isn’t to say that Gonzales (who turns 32 in February) is necessarily a clear-cut upgrade for the Buccos, as he is trying to bounce back from essentially a lost season. Gonzales’ 2023 campaign was cut short by a forearm strain in May, and he had struggled to a 5.22 ERA over 50 innings and 10 starts for Seattle before going on the injured list. While the forearm problem was a painful new wrinkle to the proceedings, the overall dip in form wasn’t a total surprise, given how Gonzales has been outperforming his peripheral numbers for years.
Gonzales posted a 3.94 ERA over 765 2/3 innings for the Mariners from 2018-22, with a more unflattering 4.64 SIERA reflecting his lack of strikeouts. Though Gonzales isn’t a hard thrower and he doesn’t miss many bats, he still achieved success with a recipe of solid control and limiting hard contact. Despite the lack of velocity, Gonzales’ four-seamer was quietly one of the more effective pitches in baseball before 2022, when it suddenly dropped into being a below-average offering.
If Gonzales can stay healthy and get back to his pre-2023 results, that alone represents a nice boost for the Pirates’ staff. It might help that the lefty is leaving Seattle for another pretty pitcher-friendly locale in PNC Park, as home runs also became an increasing problem for Gonzales in 2021-22.
2024 is the last guaranteed season of the four-year, $30MM extension that Gonzales signed with the Mariners prior to the 2020 campaign, and the deal also contains a $15MM club option for 2025 with no buyout. Since Gonzales received a $250K assignment bonus for being traded from the Mariners, the $4.5MM Seattle included in the trade package to Atlanta left $7.75MM remaining in owed salary to the left-hander. The Braves have eaten part of that portion to facilitate this next deal with Pittsburgh, only increasing Gonzales’ affordable nature — no small matter for a Pirates team that is always looking to keep its spending in check.
Though the Bucs are intending to raise their modest payroll by some extent, obtaining Gonzales for less than $7.75MM allows the club to fill one rotation hole without taking up much of whatever spending capacity GM Ben Cherington has been allotted this winter. Since Jack Flaherty is another name on the Pirates’ radar, it could be that Pittsburgh will address its rotation with veterans on short-term deals, hoping that at least one reclamation project like Gonzales or Flaherty can bounce back to become solid starter.
From Atlanta’s perspective, taking on the contracts of Gonzales and Evan White was the price necessary to obtain Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners. White’s injury history makes him more or less immovable outside of a total salary dump, yet Gonzales’ history as a decently effective and durable starter prior to 2022 made him a better candidate to be flipped, considering the league-wide need for pitching depth. The Braves are known to be looking for higher-tier pitching upgrades themselves, after missing out on Aaron Nola earlier in the offseason.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Pirates were acquiring Gonzales and cash for a player to be named later.
Latest On Braves’ Offseason Plans
A potential trade of White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease has been among the most prominent storylines of the offseason to this point, as White Sox GM Chris Getz has made clear that his club is operating with no untouchables as they look to retool after a 101-loss season. One of the teams most frequently connected to Cease is the Braves, who have a clear need in their rotation after losing Kyle Wright to shoulder surgery and subsequently dealing him to the Royals earlier this offseason.
MLB.com’s Mark Bowman pushed back against reports of Atlanta’s involvement in the Cease sweepstakes today, however, even as speculation regarding the right-hander has begun to intensify alongside the start of the Winter Meetings. Bowman acknowledges that the 27-year-old hurler was on the club’s radar earlier in the offseason but indicates that there isn’t “currently a fit” between the sides while suggesting that Atlanta’s level of interest and involvement in trade talks with Chicago has been “overblown.”
Bowman’s report also indicates that the Braves haven’t shown “serious interest” in two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani this offseason. While the Braves are not among the teams that have been most frequently connected to Ohtani’s market this offseason, Bowman’s characterization is a significant departure from a report earlier today from Jon Morosi of MLB Network, who suggested that the Braves not only have shown interest in Ohtani but are one of the teams still “actively involved” in the negotiation process.
While Bowman downplays the club’s interest in making a headline-grabbing move for Cease or Ohtani, he nonetheless suggests that the Braves are “not done” following last night’s move to acquire Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White from the Mariners, leaving the door open to the possibility the Braves make “at least one more big move.” Such a deal could even come in the form of a trade for a front-line starter, with Bowman suggesting Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow as possible alternatives to Cease on the trade market.
Of course, it’s worth noting that the club is in uncharted territory in terms of payroll. After posting a franchise record payroll of $205MM in 2023 (per RosterResource), the Braves are currently projected for an Opening Day payroll of $220MM in 2024, with a luxury tax figure of just over $256MM. That puts them right up against the second tax threshold of $257MM, meaning that the club would surely need to shed payroll before making further moves if they hope to avoid that second threshold. Bowman echoes reporting from earlier today that suggested the Braves will attempt to flip Gonzales, who is owed $12.25MM in 2024, before the offseason comes to a close. In addition to the possibility of flipping Gonzales, Bowman suggests the club could look to “sell high” on either DH Marcell Ozuna or closer Raisel Iglesias in deals that would simultaneously shed salary while potentially bringing in additional talent.
Ozuna is owed $18MM in 2024, the final guaranteed year of his contract that also includes a $16MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2025. The 33-year-old slugger is coming off a strong season at the plate during which he slashed .274/.346/.558 while crushing 40 home runs, 29 doubles, and a triple. While he’s largely limited to DH at this point in his career, he’d surely draw interest on the trade market from clubs looking to upgrade their lineup; just six hitters reached the 40-homer plateau in 2023, and just four posted a higher ISO than Ozuna’s .285 figure.
Iglesias, meanwhile, posted a 2.75 ERA and 3.26 FIP while collecting 33 saves for the Braves across 55 2/3 innings of work. It’s the fourth-consecutive season in which Iglesias has posted an ERA below 3.o0 as the 33-year-old has emerged as one of the most reliable closers in the league in recent years. Excellent as Iglesias has been, he’s guaranteed a $16MM salary in each of the next two seasons. That’s a hefty sum to pay for a reliever even with Iglesias’s pedigree. Bowman also points out the club has plenty of established back-end relief options who could anchor the bullpen if Iglesias were to be moved including left-hander A.J. Minter and offseason addition Reynaldo Lopez, though it’s worth noting the club currently plans to stretch the righty out as a potential starting option for 2024.
Braves Likely To Trade Marco Gonzales
Last night’s Braves/Mariners trade saw Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White go from Seattle to Atlanta, but it seems Gonzales’ stay with the Braves will be brief. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Braves aren’t planning to keep Gonzales and expect to move him in another trade. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times adds that Gonzales himself expected as much to happen after being informed he’d been traded to Atlanta. It’s not yet clear if there’s an imminent trade involving Gonzales or if he’s being shopped around at present, but it’s a notable revelation with regard to the Braves’ rotation outlook all the same.
Gonzales, 32 in February, is due to earn $12MM this season in the final season of a four-year, $30MM extension he signed back in 2020. The contract also contains a $15MM club option for the 2025 season, which does not come with a buyout.
The soft-tossing Gonzales was a quality member of the Seattle rotation from 2018-22, pitching 765 2/3 innings of 3.94 ERA ball along the way. He became quite homer-prone in 2021, however, and saw an already below-average strikeout rate dip to concerning levels in 2022. Gonzales still posted a solid earned run average over those two seasons, but the home run and strikeout trends were noted red flags.
While the lefty managed to cut back on the homers he allowed in 2023, Gonzales was still tagged for a grim 5.22 ERA in 50 innings. His 15.8% strikeout rate was one of the lowest in the game and the second-worst of his Mariners tenure. His 8.4% walk rate was the worst of his career. Three of his ten starts last year were actually quite serviceable, but Gonzales was clobbered for eight runs on two occasions and also served up four runs through five innings in his first outing of the year. Ultimately, a left forearm strain ended his season in late May.
For the Braves, it’s sensible to see them look to move Gonzales elsewhere. He’d at best have been a fifth starter candidate in a team that boasts Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder in the top four spots on the staff. His $12MM salary also pushed the Braves into the second tier of luxury penalization.
The Associated Press reports that Seattle is set to send $4.5MM to Atlanta to cover part of that $12MM sum — $12.25MM, if counting the $250K assignment bonus Gonzales received as part of being traded. As such, the Braves would only owe Gonzales about $7.75MM in actual salary, but he’s still cost them a bit more than $10MM once factoring in the penalties the team would’ve incurred under the competitive balance tax.
That’s probably more than the Braves care to spend on a back-of-the-rotation candidate who’s not clearly a superior option to in-house candidates like AJ Smith-Shawver and Dylan Dodd, and it might even be more than Gonzales could expect to command on the open market after an injury-marred season. Presumably, if and when Gonzales changes hands a second time, those cost-savings will be redirected to his new team.
While Gonzales perhaps isn’t a fit for a win-now Braves club with at least four healthier and better options in the rotation ahead of him, that doesn’t mean he can’t help another club. There are several teams throughout the league — Royals, A’s, Rockies, White Sox, Padres, Nationals to name a few — who are simply looking for innings to round out the starting staff. Gonzales’ 50 frames last year don’t paint the picture of an innings eater, but he’d averaged 30 starts and 174 frames over his past four 162-game seasons prior to 2023 (plus 11 starts and 69 2/3 innings in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign). If Gonzales’ medicals show that the forearm strain which ended his season is in the rearview mirror, another club might feel it can comfortably rely on him for 150ish innings this coming season. And if the Mariners are footing roughly a third of the bill regardless of where Gonzales lands, he could be viewed as a relatively affordable source of those innings at a time when veteran free agents in their late 30s (i.e. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson) are commanding $12-13MM for similar roles.
Braves Acquire Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, Evan White From Mariners
The Braves have acquired outfielder Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times, left-hander Marco Gonzales and first baseman Evan White are also headed to Atlanta in the deal. In return, the Mariners will receive right-handers Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips. The Braves have since announced the deal, which includes cash considerations headed from Seattle to Atlanta.
Kelenic, the sixth-overall pick in the 2018 draft and a former consensus top-5 prospect in the sport, struggled to a .168/.251/.338 slash line in 558 trips to the plate across his first two seasons in the majors. Despite the brutal start to Kelenic’s big league career, he managed to put together a solid campaign in 2023 as Seattle’s regular left fielder. In 416 trips to the plate across 105 games, the youngster slashed a solid .253/.327/.419. Now Kelenic, who is not yet eligible for arbitration, heads to Atlanta with five seasons of team control remaining coming off a career-best season in the majors where he posted a wRC+ of 108.
Even that performance came with some red flags, however. While Kelenic walked at an above average 9.9% clip, his 31.7% strikeout rate ranked in just the seventh percentile among qualified hitters and his overall slash line surely benefited from a .359 BABIP. He also struggled considerably after a hot April, slashing just .235/.314/.356 the rest of the way. That said, it’s worth noting that Kelenic, who will play the 2024 season at just age-24, posted a .321 wOBA in 2023 that was actually 12 points lower than his expected number of .333. Additionally, his .359 BABIP in 2023 may not be as outlandish as his career .268 mark in the majors may suggest, as he’s never posted a BABIP lower than .323 at the Triple-A level in a season during his career. In addition, it’s possible his late-season numbers are skewed by the fact that the 24-year-old missed more than two months after he suffered a fractured foot from kicking a water cooler back in July.
Looking ahead to 2024, The Athletic’s David O’Brien relays that the Braves plan to have Kelenic and Vaughn Grissom compete for the everyday role in left field during the spring, with a platoon situation between the two possible as Grissom looks to split time between the left field and the infield dirt. That said, it certainly seems possible that Kelenic could earn an everyday role in Atlanta if he shows his step forward in 2023 wasn’t a fluke. Even if Kelenic simply repeats his 2023 campaign he would represent a notable upgrade over Eddie Rosario, who drew 122 starts in left field for the Braves last year while slashing just .255/.305/.450 (100 wRC+) in 516 trips to the plate.
To acquire Kelenic, the Braves take on the salaries of both Gonzales and White. Gonzales is owed $12.25MM in 2024, while White is owed $7MM in 2024, $8MM in 2025, and a $2MM buyout on a $10MM club option for 2026. While it’s not currently known how much cash Atlanta received in the deal, it’s fair to assume the Braves are taking on the majority of that nearly $30MM in guaranteed money, including $19.25MM in dollars owed this next season. Before accounting for the cash received from Seattle, the deal pushes Atlanta’s 2024 payroll to just over $224MM and just under $261MM for luxury tax purposes, per RosterResource. If that projection holds going forward, it would put the Braves just over the second luxury tax threshold, which sits at $257MM for the 2024 campaign.
Gonzales, 32 in February, struggled to a 5.22 ERA in 50 innings across ten starts this season before undergoing season-ending surgery to repair a nerve issue in his forearm. Gonzales is expected to be ready for Spring Training in 2024 and, if healthy, could provide the Braves with a serviceable back-end rotation option who could give competition to Reynaldo Lopez and Bryce Elder in Spring Training. Prior to his injury-marred 2023 season, Gonzales had been a reliable source of innings for the Mariners in recent years, averaging 174 innings of work across four 162-game seasons between 2018 and 2022. Gonzales’s contract includes a $15MM club option for the 2025 season that does not include a buyout, though Gonzales would likely have to take a significant step forward in 2024 for the Braves to consider exercising that option.
White, 27, does not figure to be a contributor to the Braves over the life of his contract. The former top prospect owns a career .165/.235/.308 slash line in the majors and has not appeared in the big leagues since May 2021. Over the past two seasons, White has appeared in just 30 professional games with a slash line of just .200/.310/.397 at the Triple-A level during that time. White spent almost the entire 2023 campaign on the 60-day IL, first due to a left adductor strain and then thanks to hip surgery, though he too is expected to be ready for Spring Training.
In addition to taking on the salaries of White and Gonzales, the Braves parted with a pair of interesting young arms in Kowar and Phillips. Kowar’s stay in the Braves organization was a short one, as the righty had just been acquired from the Royals last month as the return in the Kyle Wright trade. As a former top-100 prospect and Kansas City’s first-round pick in the 2018 draft, Kowar is an intriguing piece despite his struggles in the majors to this point in his career. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted at the time of his trade to Atlanta, Kowar averaged 97 mph on his fastball in 2023 after converting to full-time relief duties and thanks to his eligibility for a fourth option year in 2024 figures to provide the Mariners with a fireballing, optionable relief arm headed into next season. Phillips, meanwhile, was Atlanta’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft. The 20-year-old has not yet made his professional debut after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but ranked as the Braves’ #7 prospect per MLB Pipeline prior to the swap.
As for the Mariners, the club is clearly in the midst of retooling their lineup. The club has traded both Kelenic and third baseman Eugenio Suarez and non-tendered DH Mike Ford since the offseason began while watching Teoscar Hernandez depart via free agency, leaving four major holes in the club’s lineup. That being said, the departures of those four players figure to help Seattle in their quest to improve their lineup’s contact skills next season; each of the aforementioned hitters struck out more than 30% of the time in 2024. Parting ways with four of the league’s most punchout prone bats is an excellent start toward that goal, even as the club faces an uphill battle in replacing the quartet’s production.
While replacing four members of the club’s starting lineup is no easy task, Seattle at least figures to have plenty of payroll space with which to accomplish that goal. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $115MM in 2024 pending the addition of cash considerations sent to Atlanta, while Adam Judge of The Seattle Times notes that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto indicated today that the club’s payroll will “very likely” rise in 2024 relative to its 2023 total. The Mariners posted a payroll of $140MM in 2023, meaning the club should have more than $25MM worth of room to make additions to their lineup, though it’s unclear how much Seattle is willing to surpass that $140MM figure.
Even with that amount of money available for additions, it’s worth noting that the club would need to significantly increase payroll over its 2023 levels to be able to make even one impact addition on the level of, for example, Cody Bellinger or Juan Soto. Given the number of holes the Mariners will need to fill in their lineup, it seems more likely that the club will be limited to adding mid-level salaries to its payroll. The free agent market is unlikely to offer many solutions, with the best mid-level bats such as Hernandez and Matt Chapman being among the more strikeout-prone players available this winter.
That said, the club has reportedly discussed deals for both outfielder Randy Arozarena and third baseman Isaac Paredes with the Rays recently. Adding even one of those players would surely require significant capital in terms of prospects and young players, though it’s worth noting that the Rays appear to be on the hunt for controllable starting pitching, which the Mariners have an excess of. Speculatively speaking, swinging a deal for Paredes and/or Arozarena would allow Seattle to shore up its lineup without breaking the bank, allowing the club to pursue contact-oriented bats like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Whit Merrifield in free agency.
Mariners Leadership Discusses Offseason Plans, Injury Updates, Coaching Staff
Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, GM Justin Hollander, and manager Scott Servais conducted an end-of-season press conference with reporters this afternoon. The presser covered a variety of topics, including the club’s plans for the offseason, the future of the coaching staff, and updates regarding a few of the club’s injured players.
Dipoto took the opportunity to respond to comments from catcher Cal Raleigh on the night of Seattle’s elimination from postseason contention, in which he called upon the front office to spend more aggressively this offseason than the club has in the past and referenced other teams that acquired “big-time” pitchers and hitters in recent offseasons.
“His opinions are his own, and I don’t begrudge anybody the ability to share their opinions,” Dipoto said (as transcribed from a video courtesy of Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times), “I don’t know that the solution to our problems is big name players… but would I like to add big name players? Sure, I think we all would. I think that to the extent that Cal was trying to express an opinion, and I can’t speak for him, he wants to get better… we all do. Whether that is by way of a big-name player, you know, there are a number of teams that are evidence that that might not be the only way you can build a roster.”
For his part, Hollander added (as relayed by MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer) that the club has “plenty of resources” headed into the offseason with which to acquire talent, both in terms of player capital for potential trades and financial power, as they look to return to the postseason in 2024. That tracks with publicly available information on Seattle’s financial situation headed into 2024. The club spent $152MM on player payroll in 2023, with the luxury tax payroll just passing $196MM. Before accounting for arbitration-level contracts, the club has around $45MM of budget space if the club’s budget remains stagnant relative to 2023, with over $75MM to work with for luxury tax purposes.
Servais, meanwhile, said (per Divish) that while the roles and responsibilities of certain personnel may change, the club expects to welcome back its entire coaching staff for the 2024 campaign. Hollander, meanwhile, provided updates on several injured players including left-hander Marco Gonzales and first baseman Evan White, both of whom are expected to be ready for Spring Training next year.
The longest-tenured member of the Mariners, rotation, Gonzales made 131 starts for the club between 2018 and 2022 with a 3.94 ERA and 4.35 FIP, but managed just 50 innings of work this season due to a nerve issue that eventually required season-ending surgery. White, meanwhile, underwent hip surgery back in May. The 27-year-old signed a $24MM extension with Seattle prior to his big league debut but has struggled to hit at the big league level, with a career slash line of just .165/.235/.308.
The biggest news, as relayed by Adam Jude of the Seattle Times, was regarding that of left-hander Robbie Ray. The 2021 AL Cy Young award winner underwent Tommy John surgery back in May, and he appears to be making progress as expected in his rehab process, with the club considering a return around the 2024 All Star break to be a “best-case scenario.” That would be just under 14 months after Ray underwent the surgery, on the quicker end of the typical Tommy John rehab for pitchers, which usually takes around 14-18 months. Ray posted a 3.71 ERA across 32 starts for the Mariners in 2022 but made just one appearance in 2023, allowing five runs (three earned) in 3 1/3 innings before departing his first start of the season due to injury.
Marco Gonzales To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery
Mariners left-hander Marco Gonzales will undergo season-ending surgery for the nerve issue in his forearm, per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. The lefty says the recovery time is a matter of months and he will be able to begin his offseason preparations on schedule with the hope of being ready for Spring Training. He is already on the 60-day injured list.
Gonzales, 31, began the year in Seattle’s rotation but landed on the IL in early June due a forearm strain. He didn’t seem to get on a track towards a return, having been shut down in late June and never getting sent on a rehab assignment. It appears that he and the club have exhausted any non-surgical options they explored and he will now have to go under the knife. He will finish 2023 with an ERA of 5.22 over 10 starts and 50 innings pitched.
It will ultimately go down as a disappointing and frustrating year for Gonzales, but it seems there’s some light at the end of the tunnel since he expects to have a fairly normal offseason and Spring Training. 2024 will be the final guaranteed season of the extension he and the club signed in 2020, with the southpaw set to make $12MM next year, with the club having a $15MM option for 2025 with no buyout.
The Seattle rotation has lost two of its Opening Day fivesome, as Robbie Ray required Tommy John surgery in May and Gonzales ended up missing most of the year. The club has fared well despite those losses, as Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert have been joined by rookies Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller and Emerson Hancock. Woo is on the injured list but isn’t expected to miss much time. Even without him, the club still has a strong front five and is in the thick of a playoff race.
All of those players are either under contract or club control next year, which should give the club a strong on-paper rotation going into next year. If Gonzales is healthy, they have seven viable rotation members, even before counting a midseason return of Ray. Their starters already drew trade interest prior to the summer deadline but the Mariners ended up hanging onto them. Perhaps they could revisit those talks in the offseason if everyone is healthy and they have a chance to upgrade another part of their roster, though they could also opt for retaining the rookies as optional depth.
Mariners Acquire Trent Thornton From Blue Jays
2:05pm: The Mariners have now announced the trade, with Gonzales indeed transferred to the 60-day IL as the corresponding move. The lefty has been on the IL since late May due to a left forearm strain and has yet to begin a rehab assignment. He’ll be eligible to return from the IL as soon as this weekend but that doesn’t seem to be a possibility.
2:00pm: The Mariners are acquiring right-hander Trent Thornton from the Blue Jays, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Thornton was designated for assignment last week when the Jays acquired Génesis Cabrera. The Mariners are sending infielder Mason McCoy to the Jays in exchange. The M’s will need to open a 40-man roster spot for Thornton, though they can do that fairly easily by transferring Marco Gonzales to the 60-day injured list.
Thornton, now 29, came over to the Blue Jays in a November 2018 trade that sent utility player Aledmys Díaz to the Astros. The righty jumped into Toronto’s rotation the next year and tossed 154 1/3 innings with a 4.84 earned run average. He struck out 22% of batters faced while walking 9% of them.
But in 2020, he was limited to just three starts by elbow inflammation and has been transitioned into a relief role since then. He served as a frequently-optioned depth piece for the Jays in the past few seasons, logging 100 1/3 frames in the big leagues since the start of 2021 with a 4.31 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. He’s also been able to throw 66 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level with a 2.98 ERA, striking out 21.8% of opponents while walking 10.9%.
Despite those decent numbers, Thornton was pushed down Toronto’s depth chart by other acquisitions and has only been able to make four big league appearances this year. He’s also in his final option year, meaning he’ll be out of options next year and will therefore have diminished roster flexibility. But the Mariners will still have the ability to option him for the rest of the year, allowing him to provide them with a bit of extra depth for their pitching staff. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com relays that Thornton will initially report to Triple-A Tacoma.
Heading the other way is McCoy, 28, who was originally drafted by the Orioles but was traded to the Mariners in a cash deal in April of 2022. Baseball America ranked him the 29th best prospect in Baltimore’s system in 2020, praising his glove and bat-to-ball skills but expressing some concern about a lack of future power.
Since that trade, he’s been playing for Triple-A Tacoma in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He hit 20 home runs last year but struck out in 25.8% of his plate appearances. His .256/.332/.473 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 96 in that offensively-charged environment. This year, he’s added another 11 homers but struck out at a 29.5% clip. His .234/.330/.407 line this year translates to a 77 wRC+.
Despite the subpar offense, he should have a decent floor due to his other qualities. He stole 22 bases last year and has swiped another 20 already here in 2023. He also has defensive versatility, having played the three infield positions to the left of first base as well as some brief appearances in the outfield. He will be eligible for minor league free agency at the end of this season if not added to Toronto’s 40-man roster.
Penn Murfee To Undergo Season-Ending UCL Surgery
The Mariners are dealing with a rash of significant pitching injuries, as relayed by Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times (Twitter links one, two and three). Right-hander Penn Murfee will undergo season-ending surgery on his ulnar collateral ligament. Meanwhile, pitching prospect Taylor Dollard will undergo season-ending labrum surgery. Additionally, lefty Marco Gonzales will be shut down for two weeks due to nerve issues in his elbow.
The news is a very unfortunate development for Murfee, who has been a strong presence in Seattle’s bullpen over the past two years. He debuted last season with a 2.99 ERA in 69 1/3 innings, striking out 27.9% of opponents against a 6.6% walk rate. This year, he’s struggled with control but nonetheless dropped his ERA to 1.29. He twice landed on the injured list due to elbow inflammation and will now have to go under the knife.
It’s not exactly clear exactly what kind of surgery Murfee will require, but he’s sure to face a significant absence either way. Full ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, also known as Tommy John surgery, typical requires 14 to 18 months of recovery time. Even the internal brace alternative usually requires close to a year. That means that, in addition to missing the remainder of the 2023 season, Murfee will miss a chunk of the 2024 campaign as well.
Dollard, 24, is also set to miss the remainder of this year, though his timeline beyond that isn’t clear. He was selected by the Mariners in the fifth round of the 2020 draft and pitched in the lower levels of the club’s system in 2021. Last year, he posted a 2.25 ERA in Double-A, striking out 22.9% of opponents against a 5.4% walk rate. He figured to serve as rotation depth this year but made just three starts in Triple-A before landing on the injured list.
As for Gonzales, his timeline is still up in the air but he’s already been on the injured list for over three weeks and will now be shut down for two more. Even if he’s given a clean bill of health at that time, he’ll need to ramp back up after such a long layoff, which will push his theoretical return further down the line.
He posted a 5.22 ERA before landing on the IL but a 62.1% strand rate was likely pushing that up. His peripherals were roughly in line with his previous seasons and his 4.29 FIP suggests he may have deserved better results. The lefty may not be an ace but has a serviceable 4.02 ERA dating back to his 2018 breakout campaign.
The Mariners have some rotation challenges with Robbie Ray and Easton McGee both out for the year and Chris Flexen now designated for assignment. Bryce Miller has cooled off after a red hot start while Bryan Woo has a 5.09 ERA thus far. With Gonzales now unlikely to be available for a while, it could impact the club’s approach to the deadline. Their 38-39 record has them fourth in the American League West but just four games back of a Wild Card spot.