Matt Carpenter

Rangers, Matt Carpenter Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | March 19, 2022 at 1:20pm CDT

March 19: Carpenter’s deal will pay him $2MM if he makes the big league club, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter). The Rangers have officially announced the deal, including an invite to spring training.

March 18: The Rangers and free-agent infielder Matt Carpenter are in agreement on a minor league contract, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Fort Worth native will head to Spring Training and hope to win a roster spot with his hometown club.

Carpenter, 36, was a top-10 finisher in National League MVP voting but has seen his offensive production go into a precipitous decline ever since that 36-homer season. While the lifelong Cardinal at least came within reach of league-average offensive production in 2019, his bat has evaporated over the past two years. Overall, he’s slashed just .203/.325/.346 through his past 910 trips to the plate.

Last month, Carpenter spoke with Rosenthal about the exhaustive measures he’s taken to revamp his swing mechanics and his overall approach at the plate this winter. After a lengthy chat with longtime division rival Joey Votto about Votto’s own late-30s resurgence, Carpenter set to work changing his entire process. The veteran candidly acknowledged to Rosenthal that he previously “never bought into analytics” even as his production waned. However, talking things through with Votto, former Mariners hitting coach/Dodgers hitting coordinator Tim Laker, longtime teammate Matt Holliday and others, Carpenter adopted a new approach to his training and to hitting as a whole. It’s a lengthy but excellent piece that’s well worth a full read for this interested in Carpenter’s quest to revive his career.

Time will tell whether Carpenter’s arduous offseason actually yields to gains on the field, but the Rangers should provide him with plenty of opportunity if he indeed looks sharp during Spring Training. With top third base prospect Josh Jung out six months due to shoulder surgery and presumptive starter Isiah Kiner-Falefa instead twice traded in a span of 24 hours, Texas is now looking at utilityman Andy Ibanez and recent signee Brad Miller as the likeliest candidates for playing time there. At designated hitter, oft-injured outfielder Willie Calhoun is the likeliest candidate for regular at-bats, but he’s in search of a rebound himself.

Suffice it to say, if Carpenter is able to rekindle his offensive production in Spring Training or at least impress the Rangers with his new approach at the dish, he ought to find himself with an opportunity. It’d make for a similar success story to that of Hunter Pence, another Fort Worth-area native who enjoyed a late-30s renaissance with the Rangers a few years back.

Quick Hits: Carpenter, Managers, Thome

By Anthony Franco | February 24, 2022 at 9:58pm CDT

Longtime Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter hit free agency at the end of the season when the team made the easy decision to decline their $18.5MM option on his services for 2022. The three-time All-Star and former Silver Slugger Award winner had fallen on hard times over the past few seasons. After a .257/.374/.523 showing that earned him down-ballot MVP support in 2018, Carpenter has hit only .203/.325/.346 over 910 plate appearances in the last three years.

Having recently turned 36 years old and reached the end of his contract, Carpenter could’ve thought about stepping away from the game. But he’s maintained that he has no plans to retire, and he recently detailed a series of changes he’s made to his offseason routine in a chat with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Carpenter connected with Reds star first baseman Joey Votto, who enjoyed an excellent 2021 season at age-37 after a pair of relatively down years. The lefty-hitting Carpenter praised Votto’s straightforwardness and candidly told Rosenthal “If he would have told me, ‘I think you’ve peaked. I think this is it,’ honestly, I probably would have retired. But he said, ‘I think you do have a lot left. I think you’ve kind of lost your way a little bit.’”

Carpenter suggested he’s embraced some different methods of training, increasing the intensity of his batting practice sessions and pairing with bat manufacturer Marucci to take a data-driven approach to his choice of bat. Carpenter also worked with private hitting instructor Craig Wallenbrock and former teammate Matt Holliday — now an assistant coach at Oklahoma State University — in an effort to rediscover his hitting mechanics. Given his age and recent struggles, Carpenter will have to settle for a minor league or low-base MLB deal whenever transactions again begin, but he tells Rosenthal he’s “more confident about where I’m at and where my swing is than I have been in years, maybe ever.” The piece is worth a read in full for those interested in Carpenter’s process and the mentality both he and Votto have taken in their pursuit of remaining productive as they get into their mid-late 30’s.

Some more odds and ends from around the game:

As the amount of data available to and used by teams has exploded in recent years, managers have found themselves with different complexities than they’d faced in the past. Fabian Ardaya, Cody Stavenhagen and Will Sammon of the Athletic recently examined the job description facing modern skippers, who are often tasked with weighing countervailing opinions among front office analysts, players and assistant coaches. Giants manager Gabe Kapler — who has had plenty of success in San Francisco but had been fired after two seasons (2018-19) leading the Phillies — tells the Athletic scribes he feels he wasn’t always perceptive enough of the flow of the game early in his career. “In 2018, I came in with a game plan and tried to fit the game into that game plan at times,” Kapler said. “And I think more and more I’m just sort of watching and experiencing the game in real-time, being present in real-time and noting more things about what’s happening in the dugout, what’s happening with our coaching staff, things like facial expressions with our players and body language on the field.” Ardaya, Stavenhagen and Sammon also chat with Angels skipper Joe Maddon, new Mets manager Buck Showalter, and various front office personnel about the challenges inherent to managing as part of a broader look at the position.
The Major League Baseball Players Alumni Association announced yesterday that Jim Thome has been hired as their next president. He takes over for fellow Hall of Famer Brooks Robinson, who had worked in that role since 1989. The MLBPAA, a nonprofit organization of over 8,600 current and former big leaguers, has a stated goal of “(promoting) the game of baseball, (raising) money for charity, (inspiring) and (educating) youth through positive sport images and (protecting) the dignity of the game.” “With what Brooks has done with his honesty, integrity, and leadership skills for the MLBPAA, I am very fortunate that I will be able to lean on him as well and ask him questions,” Thome said as part of the press release announcing the news. “To be the president is a great honor and it’s very humbling.“

Free Agent Faceoff: Second Base Battle Royale

By Darragh McDonald | December 30, 2021 at 2:03pm CDT

For those teams looking to improve at second base, many free agent options have already gone. Marcus Semien went to the Rangers, Javier Baez to the Tigers, Eduardo Escobar to the Mets, Cesar Hernandez to the Nationals and Rougned Odor to the Orioles. Chris Taylor and Leury Garcia returned to their clubs from 2021, the Dodgers and White Sox, respectively. It seems some people in the industry believe Trevor Story should be moved to second base, but it’s unclear if Story himself agrees with that assessment. It’s also possible that another shortstop could be moved to second, such as Jose Iglesias, though he has only 21 games of second base experience in his career thus far and hasn’t matched Story’s offensive production. For teams looking to upgrade at the keystone, who’s still available to be signed after the lockout?

Josh Harrison, 34, had an awful campaign in 2019 but has been solid over the past two seasons. Over 2020 and 2021, he got into 171 games and hit .279/.343/.402. That amounts to a wRC+ of 104 and 1.8 fWAR. Of those 171 games, he played second base in 114 of them, as well as lesser time at third and shortstop, with brief stints at all three outfield spots and even one inning at first base. Statcast doesn’t like his defensive work at those tertiary positions, but he was worth 8 OAA as a second baseman in 2021.

Jed Lowrie, 38 in April, only played nine games over 2019 and 2020 due to injuries. 2021 was a solid bounceback, however, as he played 139 games, hitting .245/.318/.398, for a wRC+ of 100, exactly league average. However, almost half of those games saw Lowrie slotted in at DH or appear as a pinch hitter, as he only played second base in 71 of them, along with three innings at third.

Donovan Solano, 34, is coming off the best three years of his career. From 2019 to 2021, he played 236 games, hitting .308/.354/.435 for a wRC+ of 114. In most of those games, 172, he appeared at second base, while also seeing some limited action at third and short. Statcast pegged his defense at second base as close to average over those three seasons.

Jonathan Villar, 31 in May, has alternated hot and cold in recent years. In 2019, he hit 24 homers, stole 40 bases and slashed .274/.339/.453 for a wRC+ 107 and 3.9 fWAR. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he hit just two dingers, stole 16 bases and hit .232/.301/.292 for a wRC+ of 65 and -0.3 fWAR. He turned things around again in 2021, with 18 homers, 14 stolen bases and a line of .249/.322/.416, 105 wRC+ and 2.1 fWAR. He only played nine games at second, as the Mets largely used him at third and short. Statcast wasn’t enamored with his defense in 2021, pegging him at -3 OAA overall.

Matt Duffy, 31 in January, had a rough 2019 and couldn’t crack the big leagues in 2020. Signed by the Cubs to a minor league deal prior to the 2021 season, he was able to crack the Opening Day roster and stick with the club all season long, except for a two-month stint on the IL. He got into 97 games and hit .287/.357/.381, for a wRC+ of 102 and 1.5 fWAR. He played 56 games at third, 21 at second, five at shortstop, three in left field, two at first base and even logged one third of an inning on the mound. Statcast graded him as being -4 OAA at second base in that small sample.

Matt Carpenter, 36, had a tremendous run from 2012 to 2018, putting up a wRC+ of at least 117 for seven straight seasons. However, it’s been a straight slide downwards since then. He finished 2018 at 140 but dropped to 96, 85 and 70 over the subsequent three campaigns. His strikeout rate also gradually ticked upwards, from 23.3% in 2018 to 26.2%, 28.4% and 30.9% in the three following years. He played 34 games at second base this year and was considered around average by Statcast. There’s no questioning it’s been a rough few years, but if he could get anywhere near his previous peak, he could be an intriguing bounceback candidate.

Each of these players have warts, but none of them should command a huge financial commitment. Villar was the only one to crack MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents, being predicted to get a contract of $14MM over two years. But which one would you prefer? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Quick Hits: Carpenter, Pirates, Tsutsugo, Braves

By Mark Polishuk | November 20, 2021 at 10:34pm CDT

Matt Carpenter has heard from a few teams about a potential contract, but he is “super prepared for an extremely slow free-agency pace here,” the former Cardinals All-Star told The Athletic’s Katie Woo. “I totally understand that I’m not necessarily a highly sought-after free agent and that there are a lot of unknowns going forward.” Even without the uncertainty of labor talks and a potential transactions freeze looming this offseason, Carpenter likely would have faced a thin market anyway considering his lack of production over the last three seasons.

However, Carpenter sees possible changes to the sport as helpful to his chances of landing a new job. Should the DH come to the National League, for instance, or “the potential of banning and limiting shifts” becomes a reality, Carpenter might draw more interest. Within a week of his 36th birthday, Carpenter reiterated that he wants to continue his career into a 12th big league season, but seemed at peace with whatever the offseason will bring. “If I play, no matter where, I’ll be perfectly happy with that,” Carpenter said. “And if I don’t, and if I’m staying home and going to be a dad and I finished my career with one and only one organization, I’ll be perfectly happy with that as well.”

Cardinals Decline Options On Matt Carpenter, Carlos Martinez

By Steve Adams | November 4, 2021 at 11:14am CDT

The Cardinals have declined their 2022 options on infielder Matt Carpenter and right-hander Carlos Martinez, the MLBPA announced. Carpenter had an $18.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout, whereas Martinez’s contract included a $17MM option with a $500K buyout. It was a foregone conclusion that the pair of options would be bought out after poor 2021 showings for both longtime Cardinals, who are now free agents for the first time in their careers.

Carpenter, 36 in three weeks, still draws plenty of walks (11.4%) and makes a lot of hard contact — but much of that hard contact is pulled on the ground into an eagerly awaiting shift. Just shy of 75% of Carpenter’s ground-balls were pulled this season, so it’s hardly a surprise that he batted .143 on ground-balls despite a leaguewide average of .236 on grounders. It’s a similar story on line-drives; Carpenter pulled exactly two-thirds of his liners this season and hit .536 — whereas the league average on line drives was a much larger .689.

Prior to his recent decline, Carpenter was a fixture in the St. Louis batting order who made a trio of All-Star teams and thrice drew MVP votes in the National League — including a fourth-place finish in 2013. Since Opening Day 2020, however, he’s managed just a .176/.313/.291 batting line with a 29.9% strikeout rate. Carpenter has made clear he wants to play in 2022, but it’ll almost certainly require him signing on with a new team, as the Cardinals’ infield is quite crowded. Even if the DH comes to the National League, Carpenter’s 2020-21 swoon probably wouldn’t make him a top consideration for the Cards.

Martinez’s decline was even swifter and was far less expected. Still just 30 years old, the righty was limited to 48 2/3 innings by a shoulder strain in 2019 but remained highly effective when he did take the mound that year. From 2015-19, he looked like a rotation building block — hence his $51MM contract extension — as he logged 747 innings of 3.22 ERA ball with a strong 23.7% strikeout rate and a 9.0% walk rate.

However, in 2020, Martinez was blown up for a 9.90 ERA in 20 innings, and after a strong run in mid-April and May this season, his season took a catastrophic nose dive. Martinez served up 10 runs against the Dodgers on June 2 and was tagged for five runs in three of his next four starts. His season ultimately ended with a 6.23 ERA through 82 1/3 innings and a torn ligament on his thumb that landed him on the 60-day IL. Dating back to Opening Day 2020, Martinez owns a 6.95 ERA and a woeful 6.0 K-BB% that would’ve seemed unfathomable just a few years ago.

Carpenter: “I Definitely Want To Play” In 2022

By Steve Adams | September 14, 2021 at 9:22am CDT

Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter is in the midst of the worst season of his career at the plate and will turn 36 in November, but the three-time All-Star made clear this week that he’s hoping for a chance to right the ship in 2022. The Cardinals are a lock to buy out his $18.5MM club option, but Carpenter tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch he’s not currently thinking about calling it quits. “I don’t know what the future holds for me as far as what [the Cardinals’] plans are, what the plans for me are,” says Carpenter. “I definitely want to play.”

The question then becomes one of whether Carpenter will be able return to the Cards at a (much) lower price or find an opportunity with another club. Carpenter has just 63 plate appearances since the All-Star break, and 33 of those have come as a pinch-hitter. He’s hitless since Aug. 7 — a span of 35 plate appearances — with five walks and 13 strikeouts mixed in along the way. His season batting line checks in at .169/.304/.275, and his 32.6 percent strikeout rate is a career-high.

The downturn at the plate has been pronounced but also isn’t entirely out of the blue. Rather, Carpenter has been in a steady decline since a 36-homer campaign in 2018 that netted him some stray MVP votes down the ballot and a ninth-place finish overall. He followed that with a down year in 2019 but was at least roughly average at the plate. He then hit .186/.325/.314 with 28.4 percent strikeout rate in 169 trips to the plate last season.

Over the past two seasons, Carpenter has batted just .176/.313/.292 in 396 plate appearances. His role with the Cardinals has diminished both due to his struggles and due to the presence of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Tommy Edman around the St. Louis infield. All three players will be back with St. Louis in 2022, and even a bench role might not be much of a consideration for the Cards. Edmundo Sosa has outplayed Carpenter across the board and offers more versatility in the infield. Carpenter hasn’t logged a single inning in the outfield since 2014. If a universal designated hitter is implemented, there’ll surely be calls — at least from fans — for an Albert Pujols farewell tour at that position.

It’s not out of the question that Carpenter could find another role with a new organization, however, particularly if the National League designated hitter does come into play. His 13.7 percent walk rate remains outstanding — tied for 20th-best among the 330 big league hitters with at least 200 plate appearances. Carpenter is still hitting the ball hard, too. Of the 386 hitters with at least 100 batted ball events in 2021, Carpenter is tied for 71st in average exit velocity, ranks 59th in barrel rate and sits 135th in hard-hit rate (i.e. batted balls at 95 mph or higher). It’s not a dominant profile, but it’s one that certainly looks like it should produce more than a .169 batting average and .275 slugging percentage.

Of course, Carpenter is done in both by the infrequency of his contact and by the pull-happy nature of the balls he does put into play. He’s highly susceptible to the shift, which makes his nearly 77 percent pull rate on grounders immensely problematic. Carpenter has tried to counteract that by focusing on elevating the ball, but he isn’t pulling the ball in the air like he did during his big 2018 season. In terms of exit velocity, launch angle and hard-hit percentage, Carpenter’s 2018 and 2021 seasons are strikingly similar. However, just 16 percent of Carpenter’s fly-balls have been pulled this season — down from 29 percent in 2018. Nearly 54 percent of Carpenter’s flies are going up the middle, which at least partially explains the drop from a 19.1 percent homer-to-flyball rate in 2018 to this year’s 5.4 percent mark.

Other teams will surely draw their own theories about Carpenter’s decline and drum up some plans of attack to remedy the problems. He’s unlikely to rediscover his 2018 form thanks to the huge uptick in strikeouts, but Carpenter’s walk rate, hard-contact profile and overall track record could still seemingly generate some interest elsewhere around the league.

That’s particularly possible if, as Carpenter himself puts it to Goold, he’s willing to “do whatever I have to do to continue playing.” It’s possible that with his recent struggles, Carpenter won’t find much in the way of guaranteed big league offers. But, if he’s willing to head to Spring Training on a minor league pact, a team seeking some corner infield depth and/or a veteran left-handed bench bat might be willing to take a speculative look.

Cardinals Notes: Molina, O’Neill, Carpenter

By Mark Polishuk | April 24, 2021 at 9:25am CDT

Yadier Molina left Friday night’s game due to right foot soreness, after appearing to hurt his foot on a swing during a fifth-inning at-bat. Molina struck out on the wayward swing, and was replaced by Andrew Knizner at catcher in the top of the sixth. Molina will undergo testing to determine the extent of the injury, and any sort of absence would represent a big loss to the St. Louis lineup. Over his first 68 plate appearances, Molina is hitting a scorching .339/.382/.661 with five home runs, with a 180 OPS+ that ranks tied for 14th among all qualified batters in the majors. While this level of offensive production wasn’t expected to continue, it was at least a good sign that Molina was bouncing back from a pair of subpar years at the plate.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Cardinals, Diamondbacks

By TC Zencka | February 27, 2021 at 2:24pm CDT

Teams in need of a left-handed hitting outfielder might want to check in with the Yankees about the availability of Mike Tauchman. Though the Yankees have four years of control remaining, there may simply not be room for him on the opening day roster, writes the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. It’s not just the addition of Brett Gardner that could push Tauchman out of the picture, though that doesn’t help Tauchman’s case. He’s competing with Jay Bruce and Derek Dietrich for that fifth outfielder role, and that veteran pair both bring the ability to play first base as well. That’s not on Tauchman’s resume. After a surprising .277/.361/.504 line over 296 plate appearances in 2019 turned the 30-year-old into a valuable member of the Yankee reserves, the power dissipated in 2020. His bat slipped from 28 percent better than average to 22 percent below by measure of wRC+. Mike Ford’s playing time could also be at risk, but the backup first baseman has two option years remaining, whereas Tauchman would have to pass through waivers.

Matt Carpenter is not conceding his spot in the everyday lineup just yet, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Carpenter won’t take many at-bats from Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado at the corners, and he’s competing with popular upstart Tommy Edman at the keystone, though Edman can play the outfield, too. Had the universal DH made its way to the league this season, Carpenter likely would have lined up for many of those at-bats. As is, he’ll be hard-pressed to beat out Edman at second, even if defense wasn’t a consideration. After being a 133 wRC+ hitter from 2012 to 2018, Carpenter fell to 95 wRC+ and 84 wRC+ the past two seasons. His batted ball profile has generally paralleled that trajectory, with exit velocity and hard hit percentage down in 2019 and 2020 from where he’d been previously.
The Diamondbacks are promoting a new assistant general manager, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (via Twitter). Mike Fitzgerald was previously the analytics director, and he now joins Amiel Sawdaye as assistant GMs under Executive VP and GM Mike Hazen. Ross Seaton has also been promoted to director of pitching.

NL Central Notes: Rodriguez, Carpenter, Farmer

By TC Zencka and Mark Polishuk | February 20, 2021 at 7:21pm CDT

There is plenty of opportunity for hurlers to win jobs on the rebuilding Pirates’ pitching staff, and The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel (subscription required) breaks down the full list of arms in Pittsburgh’s Spring Training camp. This isn’t to say that the Bucs are entirely done making moves, however, as Biertempfel names Richard Rodriguez the “Pirates reliever most likely to be traded this spring.”

Since signing with Pittsburgh prior to the 2018 season, Rodriguez has posted very strong numbers — a 3.02 ERA, and an above-average 28.16K% and 7.15BB% over 158 relief innings. Home runs have been an issue (1.3 HR/9) and Rodriguez’s hard-contact numbers were among the worst in baseball last season, though he also has some elite (96th percentile) fastball spin. Rodriguez turns 31 in March, but he is controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration, and is set to earn a modest $1.7MM this season. There hasn’t been any public trade speculation about Rodriguez during the offseason to date, yet considering how the Pirates are open to discussing virtually player in the organization, it seems likely some teams have already been in touch about Rodriguez. More talks could develop as Spring Training continues and clubs get a clearer sense of their bullpen needs.

Some more items from around the NL Central…

Matt Carpenter will not be spending time in the outfield this season, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt told Jeff Jones of the Belleville News (Twitter link) and other reports. Now that Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are entrenched at Carpenter’s usual corner infield positions, there has been some speculation that the Cardinals could look for other ways to get his bat in the lineup. Since the outfield is a non-starter for Carpenter and NL teams won’t have a designated hitter spot, this leaves either a second base platoon with Tommy Edman or bench duty for the 35-year-old Carpenter. The three-time All-Star has seen a steep decline at the plate over the past two seasons, and 2021 looms as Carpenter’s final year in St. Louis — the Cardinals have an $18.5MM club option for 2022 that seems almost sure to be bought out unless Carpenter has a major rebound.
Kyle Farmer was keeping one eye on baseball Twitter this offseason to see if the Reds would sign a shortstop, he told the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters, since Farmer was preparing to take a shot at the position himself. After playing just one game at shortstop over his first three seasons, Farmer made 15 appearances as a shortstop in 2020, and still remains in the mix for at least semi-regular work among a group that also includes Kyle Holder, Dee Strange-Gordon, and Max Schrock. (Jose Garcia is one of the few pure shortstops on the roster, though he is set to begin the season in the minors.) Farmer lost 10 pounds and overhauled his swing this offseason in his bid to prove himself worthy of regular playing time, though his multi-position versatility already makes him a strong candidate for a roster spot.

Rockies, Cardinals Discussing Nolan Arenado Trade

By Steve Adams | January 29, 2021 at 7:56pm CDT

7:56pm: St. Louis is “pushing hard” for Arenado and “very determined” to get him, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

10:20am: While Arenado has been oft-connected to the deep-pocketed Mets on a speculative basis, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the two sides are not in talks at this time.

9:15am: Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post also reports that while there have been talks, there’s no trade close at this time. He adds that Arenado’s shoulder “has fully healed” after bothering him throughout much of the 2020 season. Those in need of a refresher on last year’s public tension between Arenado will want to check out Saunders’ piece for various quotes given by Arenado at the time, all of which add context to this new chapter in the saga.

8:10am: The Cardinals have been linked to Nolan Arenado for years now, but they’re once again in talks with the Rockies about a trade that would send the star third baseman from Colorado to St. Louis, Ken Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic report. The Braves also spoke to the Rockies about Arenado, it seems, but those talks haven’t gone anywhere.

Acquiring Arenado would be a considerable about-face for a Cardinals club that, up until yesterday, hadn’t shown any signs of spending this winter. The Cards declined a $12.5MM club option on Kolten Wong and have been in a months-long staredown with franchise icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright despite both having a clear preference to return to St. Louis. The first hint of a change came last night though, when the Cards agreed to bring Wainwright back on a one-year deal worth $8MM. Prior to that, reports had indicated that the Cardinals were offering Wainwright less than the $5MM guarantee he received in 2020.

An Arenado acquisition would represent a considerably more seismic shift in their otherwise reserved approach. Arenado is owed $199MM over the next six seasons and, next winter, would be able to opt out of the remaining five years and $164MM on that contract if he desires.

Among the most sensible contracts for the Cardinals to try to send back to the Rockies to help offset some of that financial hit would be infielder Matt Carpenter ($20.5MM in 2021, including $2MM buyout of next year’s option), Dexter Fowler ($16.5MM in 2021, including deferred signing bonus) or Carlos Martinez ($12MM in 2021, including $500K buyout of 2022 option). St. Louis would clearly need to send prospect value to Colorado as well, and it should be emphasized that trading either Carpenter or Fowler could prove difficult. Both have full no-trade protection.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause of his own, though Rosenthal and Groke suggest he’d “likely” waive it for a move to the Cardinals and might even be willing to push back the opt-out provision in order to facilitate a deal. Arenado has been vocal in the past about the desire to play for a contender and has publicly expressed frustration with Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich, whom he has called “very disrespectful.” Were the Rockies winning, perhaps the rift between player and GM could be overlooked, but the Rox have been one of the least-competitive clubs in the NL West for the past two seasons and have done nothing to add to the club this winter.

Lining up on an Arenado trade is complicated for a number of reasons. Beyond the no-trade clause and the huge amount of money still owed to the eight-time Gold Glover, he’s also coming off the worst showing of his career at the plate. The downturn could potentially be attributable to a shoulder injury he battled in 2020, but the results were still somewhat troubling.

Arenado hit .253/.303/.434 (76 wRC+) this past season — a mark that is miles away from the .295/.351/.546 (120 wRC+) batting line that he carried into the 2020 campaign. If the Cardinals or another club believe that Arenado’s struggles were indeed due to that balky shoulder, perhaps the dip in production can be overlooked. Then again, there has to be some level of concern about the injury troubles persisting. Arenado turns 30 in April.

From a payroll vantage point, the Cardinals owe Paul Goldschmidt $26MM in each of the next four seasons, and they’ll pay Miles Mikolas $17MM in each of the next three. Those are the two main salaries on the books, however, and the rest of the long-term slate is relatively clean. Taking on the full freight of Arenado’s current salary would vault the Cardinals’ 2021 payroll up into the $165MM range, although if they can unload a pricey veteran of their own onto Colorado as part of the deal, that sum could fall more in the $145-155MM range. The Cards were willing to spend at that level each year from 2016-19, so there’s precedent, although owner Bill DeWitt Jr. has also been vocal in dubiously claiming baseball to be a less-profitable industry than most realize. The extent to which he’ll spend on the heels of a season with zero gate revenue is still up for debate.

Adding Arenado to the fray would give the Cards about $85MM in commitments in both 2022 and 2023. It’d also bump their 2024 commitments to about $61MM, all going to a pair of what will then be mid-30s corner infielders (Arenado and Goldschmidt). Whether investing that type of coin in a pair of sluggers’ mid-30s is the best use of resources is debatable, but in the short-term, the club would be better off for the move (assuming a healthy Arenado).

That’s particularly true in 2021, where the entire NL Central has been more focused on making their current rosters worse, in order to reduce payroll, than on actually making an effort to win in the upcoming season. The Cubs reportedly agreed to a deal with Joc Pederson this morning, but they’ve also traded away Yu Darvish, non-tendered Kyle Schwarber and explored trades of other key veterans. The Reds dumped Raisel Iglesias’ salary and non-tendered Archie Bradley. The Brewers have yet to add anyone of particular note, and the Pirates are of course in the midst of an aggressive tear-down as their latest rebuild kicks into full gear.

As written here before, the NL Central appears open for the taking to whichever of the Cardinals, Cubs, Reds or Brewers decide they want to be aggressive enough to seize it. An Arenado trade for the Cardinals would certainly fall into that category.

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