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Rays Considering Dealing Starting Pitchers

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The expectation is that this summer’s trade market will be largely devoid of quality starting pitchers, but last-place Tampa Bay could change that. The Rays, who are 33-47 and 10 games out of a Wild Card position, are discussing putting some of their young starters on the block well in advance of the Aug. 1 trade deadline, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links). One member of the group unlikely to go anywhere is underachieving right-hander Chris Archer, whose team-friendly contract might be too difficult for the Rays to part with, per Rosenthal.

With Archer probably staying in a Rays uniform and top prospect Blake Snell seemingly a poor bet to go anywhere, that leaves Jake Odorizzi, Drew Smyly, Matt Moore as rotation members Tampa Bay could shop. Each is likely attainable if the right offer comes along, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo reported Saturday afternoon.

Odorizzi, who has backed up a respectable ERA (3.91) with solid strikeout and walk ratios per nine innings (8.59 and 2.96, respectively) across 94 1/3 frames this year, has already drawn interest from the Marlins. In 468 2/3 big league innings dating back to 2012, Odorizzi has held his own – 3.80 ERA, 8.45 K/9, 2.84 BB/9 and a 10 percent infield fly rate – though his 34.5 percent grounder rate (39.2 percent this year) is well below average. The 26-year-old right-hander is playing this season on an ultra-cheap $520,700 salary and has three years of arbitration eligibility remaining.

Smyly, 27, has run up a sky-high strikeout rate for the second straight year (10.09), improved his walk rate from 2.7 to 2.24, and continued generating a large amount of infield pop-ups (13.5 percent). Nonetheless, the southpaw’s run prevention has taken a significant hit. Through his first 96 1/3 innings this season, Smyly has recorded a 5.33 ERA – which is more than two runs worse than the excellent 3.11 mark he put in 66 2/3 frames last year.

Notably, Smyly missed a large portion of 2015 with a torn labrum and opted against season-ending surgery in favor of rehabilitation through rest, which proved successful then. However, research done for MLBTR during the offseason by Bradley Woodrum and Tim Dierkes showed that Smyly remains at relatively high risk of eventually needing Tommy John surgery. That could hurt his value, then, even though he logged a 3.45 ERA, 8.51 K/9 and 2.54 BB/9 in 55 starts with the Tigers and Rays from 2012-15 and is on a palatable salary ($3.75MM) with two more arbitration trips on the docket.

Moore has mimicked Smyly in having trouble preventing runs (4.67 ERA ) despite amassing strikeouts (8.61 per nine) and limiting walks (2.62), though he’s coming off a terrific June in which he threw 38 2/3 frames of 3.72 ERA ball. The former top prospect was an eminently useful starter from 2012-13 before injury issues – including April 2014 Tommy John surgery – kept him sidelined for the vast majority of the previous two campaigns. Moore, who’s making $5MM this year, has three affordable club options of $7MM, $9MM and $10MM left on his deal before he’ll become a free agent at the end of the 2019 season. The Rangers are reportedly among the teams interested in acquiring the 27-year-old.

Given the youth and team control Odorizzi, Smyly and Moore offer, their presences on the block could hugely impact the trade deadline. Several playoff contenders (other than the aforementioned Marlins and Rangers) are likely to be on the hunt for starters, which should put each member of the trio in demand.

Matt Moore Drawing Trade Interest; Rangers Among Possible Suitors

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We’ve heard recently that the Rays could be willing to deal lefty Matt Moore, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the interest is building. The Rangers are “hot on Moore’s trail,” per the report, with three or four other rival organizations also showing signs of pursuit.

Moore struggled in his return from Tommy John surgery last year, and his current 2016 ERA of 5.04 isn’t exactly sparkling. But as Topkin details, the 27-year-old southpaw has shown signs of returning to being the type of quality starter he was before his new UCL was installed.

Thus far, Moore has boosted his strikeout rate (8.5 K/9) and lowered his walk rate (2.6 BB/9) as against his work last year. That reflects a return to his pre-TJ, double-digit swinging strike rate along with a reduction of his once-troubling tendency to issue free passes. Moore’s fastball velocity has moved back north, even if it’s still shy of what he once delivered.

Moore carried a 3.66 ERA into the month of May, then was banged up in his next seven starts. But he’s had only one dud in his last four outings, and that seems to have helped to fuel new interest. The biggest issue thus far has been the long ball, as Moore is coughing up 1.61 dingers per nine on a 15.0% HR/FB rate.

Performance is obviously hugely important in assessing Moore’s trade value, but the underlying contract rights are also critical. While much of the super-cheap portion of his early-career extension is already in the rearview mirror, he is still owed just $5MM this year and can be controlled for three more campaigns through a series of options. If all are exercised, he’d earn only $26MM over the three seasons to come, with $4.25MM in buyouts baked in if things turn south.

It remains to be seen what approach Tampa Bay takes at the deadline, but the club already looked like a plausible seller of starting pitching before it fell off the pace in the AL East. The Rays could have a bit of a rotation surplus, particularly once Alex Cobb comes back from his own TJ procedure, and a seller’s market beckons.

The club’s decision as to which, if any, starter to deal will be an interesting storyline to follow over the next month. Cobb has been the subject of trade chatter in the past. Jake Odorizzi looks like another quality, controllable arm that could draw a strong return; indeed, he placed eighth on the most recent list of MLBTR’s top trade candidates. And some have wondered whether even staff ace Chris Archer could be moved, though he is well off of his typical run-prevention numbers.

Cafardo’s Latest: Braun, Moore, CarGo, Bruce, Santiago

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Brewers left fielder Ryan Braun is “the hot name out there” on the trade market, a National League scout told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The scout listed the Astros, Cardinals, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox and White Sox as potential buyers for the 32-year-old Braun, who has resembled his past NL MVP-winning self offensively this season in slashing .351/.424/.583 with nine home runs in 170 trips to the plate. Braun is in the first season of a five-year extension that could be worth either $94MM or $105MM, depending on what happens with the contract’s mutual option for 2021.

Here’s more from Cafardo’s weekly column:

  • With prospect Blake Snell knocking on the door and Alex Cobb nearing a return from 2015 Tommy John surgery, the Rays could soon have a glut of starting pitching. Thus, they’d be willing to deal southpaw Matt Moore for both a major leaguer and a quality minor league piece. The soon-to-be 27-year-old Moore is controllable through 2019 on a cheap contract, but the former top prospect already has a Tommy John surgery under his belt and has run up a bloated 5.37 ERA in 120 2/3 frames since last season.
  • If the Rockies decide to trade right fielder Carlos Gonzalez, one talent evaluator told Cafardo that the Red Sox could be an ideal fit. “Their offense is cranking right now, but there’s an outfield position there that could possibly be enhanced if the Red Sox don’t think Brock Holt or Blake Swihart or Chris Young are the answer. They might be. But Cargo fits them as a top all-around player with power.” After slugging 40 home runs last season, Gonzalez has hit .294/.333/.471 with a somewhat modest seven homers this year. Gonzalez would presumably play left for the Red Sox, whose left fielders have hit .241/.321/.377 with four long balls. Their struggles haven’t exactly crippled baseball’s highest-scoring offense, however. Gonzalez, who will turn 30 in October, is making $17MM this year and will rake in another $20MM next season.
  • While Reds right fielder Jay Bruce is available, he won’t come cheap if the team has its way. The Reds nearly sent Bruce to Toronto during the winter, but the deal fell through after Cincinnati got cold feet over the health of one of the prospects whom it was supposed to acquire. The lefty-swinging Bruce was coming off two uncharacteristically subpar offensive seasons at the time, but he has perhaps rebuilt some of his value with an above-average .261/.313/.497 line to pair with eight homers in 176 PAs this year. Bruce, 29, is currently on a $12.5MM salary and has a $13MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2017.
  • Angels left-hander Hector Santiago is a name to watch around the trade deadline if the Halos drop out of the race, though he’ll likely need to start faring better if the team wants to move him. Santiago, who’s collecting $5MM and has a year of arbitration eligibility remaining, has thrown 55 innings of 4.58 ERA ball this year to accompany a 7.04 K/9 and 3.44 BB/9.

Rosenthal On Leake, Orioles, Cubs, Inciarte

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Pitcher Mike Leake is willing to take significantly less to play at home in Arizona, according to sources who spoke with Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  However, D’Backs COO Tony La Russa says it’s “probably unlikely” that the team will sign him.

“It’s gone back and forth,” La Russa said. “Getting Shelby (Miller) gives us a (full) rotation. I think it’s difficult because when somebody wants to pitch for you and you really like the person, you want to try and work it out. But it’s complicated and probably unlikely.”

Here’s more from Rosenthal’s column:

  • If Chris Davis goes elsewhere, the Orioles will look to bring in a left-handed bat.  Rosenthal hears that Pedro Alvarez, Gerardo Parra and Will Venable are a few of the hitters that interest Baltimore brass.  The Orioles are also likely to explore the free agent market for a starting pitcher.
  • Many have been critical of the Orioles’ farm system depth, but GM Dan Duquette has rejected the notion that they are thin.  Duquette could put his money where his mouth is by trading for one of the Rockies’ outfielders, Rosenthal writes, but they would likely ask for Colorado native Kevin Gausman in return.
  • The Cubs are “one of a number teams” that inquired on Ender Inciarte after he went from the D’Backs to the Braves.  Still, they’re more likely to go after a starting pitcher by offering up Jorge Soler or Javier Baez.  Inciarte has five years of club control and can be a strong defensive center fielder, although he also has extensive experience at both corner positions. The 25-year-old was largely unheralded as a prospect but has batted a combined .292/.329/.386 in his first two Major League seasons, including a stellar .303/.338/.408 line in 2015.
  • The Padres, Indians, and Rays could all still move a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, Rosenthal writes, and the Rays might be the most likely of the three.  Tampa Bay has three starters who could be solid No. 2 guys in a rotation: righty Jake Odorizzi and lefties Drew Smyly and Matt Moore.  Alex Cobb could also be conceivably moved, but he is affordable and under club control for the next two years.

Stark’s Latest: Cueto, Leake Miller, Indians, Rays

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Here are the latest starting pitcher rumors in advance of the winter meetings, courtesy of ESPN’s Jayson Stark.

  • Johnny Cueto is the top pitcher on the free agent market, but his earning potential remains unclear. Some insiders are surprised he turned down the six-year, $120MM offer previously extended by the Diamondbacks. As Stark points out, Cueto is sixth among active starters with a 3.30 ERA so he would seemingly justify a serious investment. However, concerns about his health and late-season struggles have executives worried. Per one source, “If you told me that, within 24 hours [of arriving at the meetings], all of the big free-agent starters would be signed except Cueto, I’d believe it.“
  • Former Reds starter Mike Leake, 28, is in demand largely because he’s one of the youngest pitchers on the market. He has a history of durability, but that comes with league average production on the mound. However, Leake is also well-above average as a hitter, boosting his value to NL clubs. Stark expects a “stampede” in Leake’s direction during the Winter Meetings. One source believes Leake will be overpaid by an exuberant market.
  • The Braves would jump on a Shelby Miller trade if they received the right controllable position player. To date, Atlanta has focused on particularly high value targets like Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock, and Jorge Soler. As you might guess, few if any teams are eager to trade established, high quality young hitters for pitching. The Braves have shown no sign of backing down on their asking price.
  • We’ve heard a lot about the Indians pitching depth – namely Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. Stark and his sources think the club will stand pat this winter. “You’re just shifting around your problems,” said one contact in regard to a hypothetical pitcher-for-hitter swap. The team’s strength is built around their rotation. They may be best served by simply maximizing that advantage.
  • With the exception of Chris Archer, the Rays are shopping all of their starting pitchers. That’s par for the course for the Rays who historically have been open to trading anybody to improve the long term outlook of the franchise. Stark specifically mentions Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore as available, but we can probably presume that Erasmo Ramirez is being floated too.
  • Stark offers plenty of more notes in his column including the latest on the Yankees, Padres, and the remaining buyers for pitching.

AL East Notes: Hanley, Ellsbury, Orioles, Moore

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Here’s the latest from around the AL East…

  • The Red Sox have given Hanley Ramirez permission to begin his offseason rehab process at his home in Fort Lauderdale, which ESPN Boston’s Gordon Edes feels is a curious and perhaps telling move from the team.  While Ramirez has been shut down for 2015 due to a shoulder injury, Edes notes that the likes of Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa all remained with the club despite being shut down with past and current injuries in order to keep supporting their teammates.  It could just be a case of bad optics, or it could be a hint that the Red Sox don’t have Ramirez in their future plans and will try to trade him this winter.
  • The Red Sox aren’t missing Jacoby Ellsbury given the wealth of young outfield talent on the roster, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald writes.  “Ellsbury was not viewed by the Red Sox as a must-sign,” Silverman said, as the outfielder went on to sign a seven-year, $153MM free agent deal with the Yankees.  Given how Ellsbury has struggled this year, it’s no surprise the Sox would prefer to look to the future with Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Rusney Castillo.
  • Some teams are already inquiring if Orioles pitching coach Dave Wallace will be available this winter, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports.  Wallace and the rest of the O’s coaching staff are still without contracts for 2016, though executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette recently told Kubatko that the club was in “the process” of getting those deals worked out.  The highly-regarded Wallace has been Baltimore’s pitching coach for two seasons and Kubatko speculates that if he were to leave, bullpen coach Dom Chiti could leave as well since the two are good friends.
  • Matt Moore tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that he feels he’s turned a bit of a corner in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and should be fully back to normal by Spring Training.  Moore badly struggled in his first six starts back and was demoted to the minors, though since returning to the Rays he has pitched better, posting a 3.86 ERA and a 22-to-5 K/BB rate over his last 23 1/3 innings.
  • The Yankees will replace Dave Miley as the manager of their Triple-A affiliate, George A. King III of the New York Post reports.  Miley, who managed the Reds from 2003-05, just completed his 10th season managing the Yankees’ Triple-A team.

Rays To Demote Matt Moore

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The Rays will demote Matt Moore to Triple-A Durham on Monday, as MLB.com’s Bill Chastain writes.  Moore has struggled at the Major League level this season and the Rays hope that a stint in the minors will help him get back on track.  The move also gives Tampa Bay the opportunity to go with a four-man rotation.

“One, this is the first time we’ve had an opportunity to go to a four-man rotation,” manager Kevin Cash said. “It’s definitely not fair to ask Matt Moore to go into the bullpen. We need to get his innings on a consistent track, because that factors into what he’s capable of doing next year for us. But most importantly, we need to get Matt back to being the guy that he is. We know, as an organization going forward, he’s a huge part of what we’re doing. And I think this stability, keeping him on his five days, will help.”

Moore, a top prospect who emerged as a budding star in 2012 and 2013, has been battling his way back from a UCL replacement.  So far in 2015, he has not looked like the same pitcher, posting an 8.78 ERA with 5.7 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9.  With some time in the Rays’ farm system, the club hopes that he can get closer to his old form.  In 2013, Moore earned his first All-Star appearance and posted a 3.29 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9.

Injury Notes: Bailey, Cobb, Moore, Holland, Wieters, Iwakuma, Hanley

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As expected, Reds starter Homer Bailey underwent Tommy John surgery today, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports. Though his previously-repaired flexor mass tendon apepared in good shape, Bailey’s UCL was determined to be completely torn, leaving little in the way of options to avoid surgery.

  • Likewise, Rays righty Alex Cobb was found to have a fully torn UCL, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports, meaning he too was virtually assured to require a TJ procedure. Cobb says the best-case scenario would have him return late in 2016. Fellow Tampa hurler Matt Moore has continued to build his way back from his own UCL replacement, with MLB.com’s Bill Chastain reporting that Moore was able to throw all of his pitches in a live BP session. Moore says he is targeting a mid-June return to the big league bump.
  • Though his shoulder has shown some evidence of progress, Rangers lefty Derek Holland will wait an additional two weeks before he begins throwing, as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweets. Though Texas has enjoyed a somewhat surprising contribution from its starting staff (3.71 ERA, 9th in baseball), peripherals suggest that some regression is forthcoming. Regardless, Holland’s health is critical to the club, both this year and — perhaps even more so — in the future.
  • Orioles catcher Matt Wieters is set to catch seven innings tomorrow as he continues to work fully back from Tommy John surgery, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. Wieters’ ability to return to health and productivity will go a long way toward determining his free agent earning power next winter, of course. It will also tell on Baltimore’s ability to compete for a postseason slot, though replacement Caleb Joseph has been a revelation.
  • The Mariners appear unlikely to see righty Hisashi Iwakuma return until early June, at the soonest, per Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Manager Lloyd McClendon says that Iwakuma is “probably still two to three weeks from going out [on a rehab assignment]” and will then need to throw a few outings before making it back to the big leagues. As with Wieters, Iwakuma needs to get healthy and show that he can continue to be effective in order to bolster his open market case. The scuffling Mariners, meanwhile, are not only firmly in need of his services, but also must assess whether they will be in the market for rotation help over the summer.
  • Red Sox outfielder Hanley Ramirez is not likely to need a DL stint for his left shoulder sprain, manager John Farrell tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). Boston seems to have dodged a bullet with the injury situation, as the club can ill afford an extended absence from the player who has paced the club in hitting thus far.

Rays Notes: Moncada, Moore, Teaford

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Here’s the latest from Tampa Bay…

  • Yoan Moncada took part in a private workout for Rays officials at Tropicana Field on Wednesday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.  Despite the Rays’ interest in Moncada, it is widely expected that they will be outbid given the widespread interest in the Cuban phenom.
  • Left-hander Matt Moore threw off a mound on Tuesday of this week for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery, reports Topkin. Moore made 15 tosses from halfway up the bullpen mound at Tropicana Field and said the session couldn’t have gone better. Moore says he is targeting a return to the Tampa rotation sometime in June. In the meantime, trade acquisition Nate Karns and prospect Alex Colome should battle to hold down the fifth slot behind Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, Jake Odorizzi and Chris Archer.
  • The Rays’ minor league signing of Everett Teaford is yet another example of how the organization focuses on pitchers who throw high fastballs, Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan writes.  Tampa generally either pursues pitchers with rising fastballs or tries to add the pitch to a hurler’s arsenal after the club acquires him, as was the case with Drew Smyly last season.

East Notes: Yankees, Rays, Moore, DeJesus, Duquette, Desmond, Kimbrel, Braves

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The Yankees may not have stowed away their checkbook, as MLB.com’s Barry Bloom reports. Owner Hal Steinbrenner told reporters yesterday that time remained for moves. “It’s not over until it’s over,” he said. “We still have a full month before Spring Training. … [W]e’re still the New York Yankees, all you guys know that. We know what the fans expect. We know what the town expects. We’re not going to be afraid to spend money.”

  • If the Yankees are still the Yankees, then so too are the Rays still the Rays. As Andrew Astleford of FOX Sports Florida writes, trading away Ben Zobrist is just the latest reminder of the team’s continued strategies. “These trades are difficult, but they’re a necessary part of how we operate,” said president of baseball operations Matthew Silverman.
  • One other hallmark of the Rays method is early-career extensions, and one area of risk in such deals is injury, especially for pitchers. Lefty Matt Moore, who is controllable through 2019 under just such a contract, lost virtually all of last season due to Tommy John surgery. He is in a good physical and mental state, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, and hopes to return to the mound soon while building toward a return to the roster this coming June.
  • Topkin also wonders (via Twitter) whether the Braves and Rays could be a match on outfielder David DeJesus. The veteran is owed $5MM this year and a $1MM buyout on a 2016 option, which makes him a reasonably priced target but also does not leave him with a ton of trade value.
  • Though Orioles owner Peter Angelos threw cold water yesterday on the idea that momentum was building toward a deal that would result in executive VP Dan Duquette taking over the Blue Jays’ front office, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says that the possibility still remains. If nothing else, Duquette wants the job in Toronto, per the report, which chalks up the Angelos statement to negotiating tactics.
  • The Mets should make a hard push to acquire shortstop Ian Desmond from the Nationals, Rosenthal argues in the same piece. The recently-acquired Yunel Escobar provides an alternative to Desmond in D.C., and Rosenthal suggests that including Daniel Murphy and adding prospect value could make the trade palatable for the Nats. While I would not write off the idea entirely, it would seem likely that the Nationals would demand a particularly significant return to move Desmond to a rising division rival.
  • Staying in the division, Rosenthal says that the Braves should deal away closer Craig Kimbrel. The righty is an expensive luxury for a non-contending team, says Rosenthal, who does note that the club might get better value for him at the trade deadline. That may well be, but it would be interesting to see what teams would give up now for one of the game’s most dominant arms; I’m guessing quite a bit. For its part, Atlanta is “optimistic about the coming season” and has no interest in dealing away Kimbrel, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets.
  • The ship has sailed at this point, of course, but Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution opines that the Braves may not have been in need of such a dramatic renovation. While the plan to re-build around young pitching obviously makes sense directionally, Bradley argues that the team now looks destined to be rather dreadful for the next season or two and wonders whether a less drastic plan could have been pursued.
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