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Mauricio Dubon

NL Notes: Dubon, Giants, Smith, 40-Man Additions

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In trying to predict Mauricio Dubon’s upcoming role with the 2020 Giants, MLB.com’s Maria Guardado draws a comparison between the 25-year-old Dubon and utilityman Chris Taylor of the Dodgers (link). Dubon, as Guaradado points out, already showed himself capable at second and short last year after being acquired from the Brewers in exchange for Drew Pomeranz, and the 25-year-old also has a few games of center field experience dating back to his time in the 2016 Arizona Fall League. While it may be a stretch to conclude that Dubon will be able to handle the outfield’s most challenging position based on a handful of years-old appearances, it isn’t completely outlandish to think that teams may consider some unconventional routes toward manning center in 2020. After all, the free agency class at that position is rather weak, with only Brett Gardner and Shogo Akiyama projecting as possible starting options. Meanwhile, several teams seeking contention, including the Phillies, Padres, and Cubs, have obvious openings in center; the Giants, for their part, are facing some uncertainty as to their approach to Kevin Pillar this offseason. In his first 30 games of MLB action, Dubon hit .274/.306/.434 with four homers and three steals in 2019.

More notes from around the NL on a calm Saturday night…

  • Wednesday’s deadline to add players to 40-man roster’s in advance of next month’s Rule 5 Draft brought a flurry of activity, and we’ve already covered some of the more interesting veterans that were DFA’d to accommodate various roster moves. But what of the 112 players who found themselves on MLB organizational rosters for the first time? Many of them, as noted in a piece from MLB.com’s Jim Callis, are a good reminder of the labyrinthian routes s0me players have to take in order to achieve their dreams of donning big league uniforms. Callis’ list features a former prep standout who overcame addiction issues to achieve success in the minors (Phil Pfeifer of the Braves), a former Mexican League pitcher who, despite never pitching above High-A, intrigued this season with a 94-98 mph heater (Manuel Rodriguez of the Cubs), and a 2013 DR signing who may reach the bigs with a new org after previously spending a half-decade in Rookie ball (Christopher Sanchez, who arrived to the Phillies via trade from the Rays on Wednesday). They may not represent household names, but they may represent a few new names to root for.
  • Kudos to Joel Sherman of The New York Post for authoring a thoroughly interesting piece that attempts to explain why Yasmani Grandal and Will Smith, in particular, represented the first major signings of the 2019-2020 offseason (link). It was Grandal and Smith’s relatively “distinct” profiles, in Sherman’s view, that prompted the White Sox and Braves, respectively, to lunge toward early signings; while teams may be able to convince themselves, for example, that Zack Wheeler makes for a decent alternative to Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole, there were no such viable alternatives to Smith, a left-handed reliever capable of pitching to both sides of the plate, or Grandal, a switch-hitting catcher who excels at both sides of the game. While the next-best lefty reliever may be Drew Pomeranz, it’s not as if teams would feel entirely comfortable with that pitcher’s comparative lack of a relief track record; same goes for Travis d’Arnaud, a player who, despite his arguable position as the market’s second-best backstop, simply doesn’t offer Grandal’s history of sustained success (or health). As Sherman touches on, Smith’s well-rounded ability, in particular, could prove to be a boon for the Braves. With next year’s introduction of a three-batter minimum rule, it’s generally impossible, at this juncture, to predict how teams might be compromised in late-inning situations. While recent years have seen a LOOGY or two stashed on every staff, pitchers like Smith figure to become increasingly valuable under the new rules, where relievers will likely have to face at least one opposite-handed batter. In 65.1 innings in 2019, the Braves’ newest addition was death on same-handed batters (.166 wOBA) but more-than-useful against righties as well (.298 wOBA).

Giants To Promote Mauricio Dubon

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The Giants are set to get their first look at middle-infield prospect Mauricio Dubon, per Robert Murray of The Athletic (Twitter link). The Giants will promote the 25-year-old, whom they acquired in the deadline deal that sent Drew Pomeranz and Ray Black to the Brewers, prior to tonight’s game. Dubon is on the 40-man roster, so San Francisco will only be required to make a 25-man roster move to accommodate his promotion.

Dubon currently ranks fifth among Giants farmhands at Baseball America, seventh over at Fangraphs and eighth at MLB.com. He’s hitting a combined .302/.345/.477 in 539 plate appearances on the season, including a .323/.391/.485 line (116 wRC+) in 112 plate appearances since being traded over to his new organization. Dubon has long posted low strikeout rates in the minors, but he’s taken that trend to a new level in Triple-A Sacramento, where he’s walked more often (10 times) than he’s struck out (nine).

Originally a Red Sox draft pick in 2013, Dubon went to Milwaukee alongside Travis Shaw in the much-maligned (by Boston fans, that is) Tyler Thornburg swap. However, while he looked to be on the cusp of MLB readiness early in 2018, a torn ACL in May wiped out the remainder of last season for him. Upon returning to the field in 2019, Dubon was suddenly looking up at Keston Hiura and Mike Moustakas in the Brewers’ big league infield, clouding his path to the Majors to an extent. While the Brewers could’ve given him a look at shortstop with Orlando Arcia struggling immensely in 2019, the decision was instead made to utilize him as a means of adding some help to the relief corps.

With his new organization, Dubon is blocked at shortstop by Brandon Crawford (and his no-trade clause), who is signed through the 2021 season. However, while Dubon has played primarily shortstop in 2019, he has ample experience at second base and could immediately step into a regular role there as he auditions for 2020 at-bats. The Giants recently cut ties with Joe Panik, creating a clear opening for Dubon to slot into the lineup.

Dubon is generally regarded as a hit-over-power prospect, but his home run output has increased in Triple-A this season (though it’s worth noting the important caveat that home runs have skyrocketed throughout all of Triple-A upon switching over to the same ball used in MLB). While there may be questions about his ability to hit for power in the long run, particularly in the cavernous Oracle Park, Dubon typically receives average or better ratings for his hit tool, arm strength, speed and defensive abilities. Paired with a keen eye at the plate and solid upper-minors production, that skill set should earn him a legitimate opportunity at regular playing time with the Giants as they look to transition to a younger core under new front-office management headed by president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi.

By promoting Dubon now, the Giants will put him on track to become eligible for arbitration upon completion of the 2022 season and to reach free agency in the 2025-26 offseason. Future shuttling between the Majors and Triple-A could of course impact that timeline (and Dubon does have an option remaining beyond the current season). As things currently stand, he wouldn’t be a candidate for Super Two status, meaning he’d be arb-eligible the standard three times before hitting the open market.

Brewers To Acquire Drew Pomeranz, Ray Black

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1:27pm: ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that hard-throwing righty Ray Black will also go to Milwaukee.

1:25pm: Lefty Drew Pomeranz is one player headed to the Brewers in the swap, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. If the Brewers are parting with a prospect of Dubon’s caliber, there’ll surely be other names in play.

1:23pm: The Brewers ad Giants are in agreement on a “significant” trade, reports Robert Murray of The Athletic (via Twitter). The big league players involved in the swap remain unknown, but well-regarded second base prospect Mauricio Dubon is headed from Milwaukee to San Francisco as part of the exchange. Madison Bumgarner is *not* going to Milwaukee, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

In Dubon, the Giants will acquire a Major League-ready 25-year-old who can step directly onto the roster. Dubon’s 2018 season was cut short by a torn ACL, but he’s returned to bat .297/.333/.475 with 16 home runs, 22 doubles, a triple and nine steals in the hitter-friendly Triple-A Pacific Coast League. He’ll face a much more daunting offensive environment in the big leagues when he plays his home games at the cavernous Oracle Park in San Francisco.

Scouting reports on Dubon peg him as a hit-over-power prospect, and the move to Oracle Park doesn’t figure to do his power numbers any favor. But he’s never batted lower than .274 in a full minor league season, and he’s maintained strikeout rates south of 15 percent on a year-over-year basis. Dubon doesn’t walk much, but his knack for putting the ball in play should help his on-base skills in the big leagues. He’s considered capable of playing an average or better second base even after last year’s knee injury.

The veteran Pomeranz is the more well-known of the two arms being acquired by the Brewers, but he seems like a secondary piece in this swap. Pomeranz had an awful year in the Giants’ rotation but has garnered some attention following a (very) recent shift to the bullpen. In four relief outings, he’s tossed 5 1/3 shutout frames with just one hit and one walk allowed against eight strikeouts. The lefty has ample experience in the rotation and could return to that role if the Brewers feel he’s a mechanical adjustment or pitch-selection alteration away from returning to hi 2017 form, but his recent success in a return to the bullpen is more intriguing.

Black is already 29 years old but is the more appealing piece for Milwaukee. Durability has been an issue for the right-hander, but if he’s healthy he’ll be among the hardest-throwing pitchers in Major League Baseball. Black has averaged 99.1 mph on his heater in a tiny sample this season and regularly hits triple digits with a fastball that draws 80 grades on some scouting reports. Black has averaged nearly 17 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in his minor league career and might not even finish the season with a full year of MLB service, meaning he can be controlled through 2025.

Brewers, Giants Have Discussed Will Smith Trade

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The Brewers and Giants have been in talks about a potential trade that would send lefty Will Smith from San Francisco back to Milwaukee, reports Robert Murray of The Athletic (subscription required). The Giants are particularly interested in second base prospect Mauricio Dubon, per Murray, though he specifies that no deal is close between the two clubs.

It’s not clear that Milwaukee would have any actual interest in dealing Dubon, particularly for a rental. As a player who’s already made his MLB debut after enjoying success in both Double-A and Triple-A, Dubon would be a costly price to pay in exchange for a half-season of a player — even an elite reliever. Dubon is widely considered to be among the Brewers’ five best prospects and boasts a career .300/.335/.479 batting line in 762 plate appearances at Triple-A. That’s not to say such a swap is out of the realm of possibility, however, particularly given how steep the demand for Smith will be. To this point, Smith has been linked to the Cardinals, Dodgers, Rays and Twins, among others. Beyond that, the Giants will have multiple relievers available (Sam Dyson, Tony Watson and perhaps Reyes Moronta), which creates myriad trade scenarios.

Smith is not only the top rental reliever on the market, he’s legitimately been one of the best relievers on the planet in 2019 (while earning an affordable $4.25MM). In 37 1/3 innings for the Giants this season, the southpaw has pitched to an excellent 2.17 ERA with 13.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.72 HR/9 and a 45.3 percent ground-ball rate. The 30-year-old Smith has struck out a career-high 39.4 percent of the hitters he’s faced in 2019 while demonstrating his best command of the strike zone since 2013.

The Brewers, meanwhile, have seen one of their greatest weapons in 2018 dwindle in 2019 with the decline of their relief corps. Josh Hader leads the team in saves and is posting historic strikeout numbers for a second straight season (50.3 percent), but he’s already allowed as many home runs (nine) in 45 innings as he did last year in 81 1/3 frames. Corey Knebel had Tommy John surgery and won’t pitch in 2019. Jeremy Jeffress was terrific through mid-June, but he missed a couple of weeks early due to shoulder fatigue and has hit a rough patch (7.15 ERA) over the past month.

Smith is far from the Brewers’ only option as they pursue bullpen trades — as is evident when perusing MLBTR’s list of the market’s top 60 trade candidates — but he’s also a known commodity in Milwaukee. The Brewers traded Smith to the Giants prior to the 2016 non-waiver trade deadline in a deal that netted them righty Phil Bickford and catcher Andrew Susac. Bickford, a former first-round pick, has yet to progress beyond Class-A Advanced. Susac was traded to the Orioles for cash after being designated for assignment in February 2018.

Brewers Select Jay Jackson, Option Mauricio Dubon

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The Brewers have selected the contract of righty Jay Jackson from Triple-A San Antonio and optioned Mauricio Dubon to AAA, the team reports.

Jackson, 31, appeared poised for a middle-inning role after a dominant 2015 season for San Diego’s AAA-affiliate, but opted instead to pitch in Japan. He excelled there, too, posting back-to-back seasons of sub 2.03 ERAs for the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Central League.

In 35 2/3 innings for San Antonio this year, Jackson’s offered up a commanding 1.01 ERA/1.66 FIP on the back of unassailable peripherals marks: a 12.62 K/9 against just 2.02 BB/9, and not a single homer allowed in a league that’s seen its homer rate jump by as astounding 50.5% this season. The righty should insert himself into a high-leverage role straight away for a team that’s been surprisingly short on reliable late-inning options in ’19. Josh Hader has again been dominant, if homer-prone, but the rest of the club’s complement of ’pen arms – aside from perhaps Jeremy Jeffress – have been mediocre-to-shaky thus far in the campaign.

Dubon, acquired with Travis Shaw in the lopsided deal that sent reliever Tyler Thornburg to Boston, missed much of last season with a torn ACL. He’s rebounded nicely in ’19, though a .307/.343/.491 slash is good for only a 100 wRC+ in the unhinged offensive environment of the PCL.

Brewers Call Up Mauricio Dubon

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SUNDAY: Dubon’s officially up. Amazingly, Arcia dodged a significant injury and should be fine to return after the All-Star break, per Rosiak. Because Arcia’s not going on the IL, the Brewers optioned righty Burch Smith to make room for Dubon.

SATURDAY: The Brewers are set to call up shortstop prospect Mauricio Dubon, Robert Murray of The Athletic tweets. Dubon, who’s already on the Brewers’ 40-man roster, will make his major league debut.

The Dubon call-up comes on the heels of a potentially serious injury for shortstop Orlando Arcia. The 24-year-old had to be carted off the field during the Brewers’ loss to the Pirates on Saturday after a collision with second baseman Keston Hiura. Arcia “was holding his left arm and shoulder” as he exited the field, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes.

Dubon, also 24, suffered a major injury of his own – a torn left ACL – just a year ago. The righty-swinging Dubon has come back this season to slash .306/.343/.467 (99 wRC+) with 14 home runs and eight stolen bases in 357 plate appearances with the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate in San Antonio.

Dubon originally joined the Brewers in a December 2016 trade with the Red Sox that centered on reliever Tyler Thornburg and third baseman Travis Shaw. Although Dubon was only a 26th-round pick in 2013, he evolved into one of Boston’s top prospects before it dealt him. He’s among the Brewers’ best farmhands nowadays. MLB.com and FanGraphs each place Dubon fifth in Milwaukee’s system. He could become “a low-end” starting shortstop in the majors, Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs write.

Recovery Notes: Pineda, Nelson, Dubon, Seager, Zimmer

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Michael Pineda has yet to throw a pitch for the Twins, but he’s healthy now and ready to make his Twins debut in 2019, per Betsy Helfand of the Twin Cities Pioneer Press. The Twins signed Pineda to a two-year, $10MM guarantee last December as he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery, hoping he might be ready for the latter half of the season. Just when it looked like Pineda was ready to return, he was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his knee, ending his season before it began. Injuries have been a constant for Pineda’s career, though he did put together back-to-back healthy campaigns for the Yankees in 2015 and 2016. His overall 4.05 ERA is boosted by a particularly strong rookie campaign, but across 680 innings in Seattle and New York, he did turn in 9.1 K/9 to 2.1 BB/9. The Twins are perhaps the most wait-and-see team in the league, with many volatile assets equally capable of All-Star seasons and bottoming out (Pineda, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Jonathan Schoop, among others). With no guaranteed money on the books for 2020, recent speculation has Minnesota as a sleeper team for either Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, but Thad Levine threw some water on that idea, as he believes significant acquisitions of that variety are more appropriate for frontrunners atop a division, rather than a young team on the rise, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). Certainly an interesting take from the Minnesota GM. Now, some more recovery news from around the league…

  • The Brewers will return an intriguing arm to their rotation this spring, as Jimmy Nelson is healthy and ready to go, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (via Twitter). Nelson will have no restrictions heading into Spring Training, and he’s not backing down from high expectations either, making clear his goal to get the nod on Opening Day – unlikely as that may be. Nelson put together an impressive campaign in 2017 that launched him to the top of the Milwaukee rotation, but it’s probably best to temper expectations after a torn labrum took his 2018. For Milwaukee, the tide is turning on what was seen as a rickety rotation leading up to the playoffs, as their starting staff now looks to be a source of potential strength. Jhoulys Chacin made himself irreplaceable in their run to the NLCS, and he’s backed by Zach Davies and Chase Anderson, both rebound candidates after subpar seasons. Add Nelson, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, among others, as contenders to join what now looks like a high-ceiling and deep, if unstable, unit. 
  • Rosiak also notes (via Twitter) that prospects Keston Hiura and Mauricio Dubon are ready for a big year, rested in the former’s case and healthy after ACL surgery in the latter’s. While both will return to big league camp this spring, they’ve been told they won’t be with the team on Opening Day, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt (via Twitter). None of this should come as a surprise, as it’s become the norm for top prospects to begin their debut seasons in Triple A, but it’s safe to say Hiura, at least, is hopeful to make an impact at the ML level sometime in 2019. Dubon, for his part, was ripping through Triple A before the surgery, hitting .343/.348/.574 in 27 games with Colorado Springs. 
  • Corey Seager hasn’t taken batting practice since his injury last May, but he’s long-tossing in preparation for an important spring back in the middle of the Dodgers infield, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Seager isn’t yet mobilizing for groundballs or throwing across the diamond, but his recovery from Tommy John surgery has gone according to plan thus far and hope remains that he’ll be ready by Opening Day. He’s hitting off a tee, with the next steps being batting practice in the cage before going against live pitching. The Dodgers have the depth to cover for Seager if he’s not ready by Opening Day – with Chris Taylor the most likely stand-in – but he’s obviously a huge part of their team moving forward.
  • The Royals fanbase is still waiting for the long-heralded debut of former top draft choice Kyle Zimmer, but it seems nearly time after he signed a major league contract this winter, per the Kansas City Star’ s Lynn Worthy. Zimmer was the 5th overall pick of the 2012 draft, but he missed the entirety of 2018 while training at the Driveline Baseball pitching program. Even so, he was clocked in the mid-90s this fall, and the Royals weren’t alone in competing for Zimmer’s services, hence the major league contract. Said GM Dayton Moore of the deal, “I would rather have him fail with us than go somewhere else and succeed.” While that’s not exactly a rousing sentiment, and it could be read as vindictive, that does not appear to be Moore’s intent, who praised Zimmer for his mindset and toughness. For Zimmer’s part, he spoke glowingly of the Royals longstanding support and loyalty in his continued journey to toe a major league rubber. If he can stay healthy, there’s opportunity enough for Zimmer to make his debut at Kauffman Stadium sometime in 2019, and despite Moore’s omission of Zimmer’s potential success with the Royals as one of his potential futures, that’s surely the goal for both parties.

Stephen Vogt Suffers Career-Threatening Shoulder Injury; Mauricio Dubon Tears ACL

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6:47pm: Vogt’s injury puts not only the remainder of the 2018 season in jeopardy but could also be career-threatening, Haudricourt explains in a full column on the matter. Vogt suffered damage to the anterior capsule, the rotator cuff and the labrum in his right shoulder while making a throw to third base in a rehab game this weekend. The veteran fought back tears when describing the injury to reporters (Twitter link with video, via McCalvy). He’ll head to L.A. to be evaluated by renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache later this week.

“The biggest emotion is sadness,” said Vogt. “It’s hard. I’m upset. … Obviously, there are big implications here with a second shoulder injury like this that I don’t like to think about but I am thinking about. I felt everything go wrong that could go wrong with a shoulder.”

4:02pm: The Brewers announced on Tuesday that infield prospect Mauricio Dubon has suffered a torn ACL in his left knee and will miss the remainder of the season. The tough injury news didn’t stop there, either, as GM David Stearns told reporters that catcher Stephen Vogt has re-injured the anterior capsule in his right shoulder and also has some damage in his rotator cuff (Twitter link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). He’s headed for a second opinion, but season-ending surgery is possible for Vogt, McCalvy adds. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, meanwhile, tweets that surgery is “inevitable.”

Both bits of news are significant for the Brewers. Stearns revealed today that Dubon was in consideration for his first call to the Major Leagues when he incurred the injury. The 23-year-old, acquired alongside Travis Shaw in the Tyler Thornburg swap with the Red Sox two winters ago, was hitting .343/.348/.574 with four homers, nine doubles, two triples and six stolen bases in 114 plate appearances with Triple-A Colorado Springs. He’d have been just the second native of Honduras to reach the Majors, per Baseball-Reference, though that distinction will now be placed on hold for at least a season. (Former Astros outfielder Gerald Young was the first.)

As for Vogt, there won’t be any definitive word on his status until he receives further opinions from additional medical experts, but the outlook certainly isn’t promising. He’d been near a return prior to aggravating the shoulder in a rehab appearance with Double-A Biloxi over the weekend, per Haudricourt. Vogt’s return might’ve come at the expense of struggling backup Jett Bandy, who is out of minor league options, but Bandy’s spot on the club now looks more secure with Vogt sidelined indefinitely. (Christian Bethancourt and Jacob Nottingham are both hitting quite well in Triple-A, however, providing additional in-house alternatives.)

NL Central Notes: Kingham, Finnegan, Dubon

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The Pirates announced this afternoon that they’ve optioned righty Nick Kingham back to Triple-A Indianapolis. The 26-year-old was the talk of baseball when he took a perfect game into the seventh inning in his MLB debut, though his second start (four runs in 5 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts against one walk) offered more mixed results. Kingham’s spot in the rotation will likely go to Joe Musgrove, who is nearing a return from the DL, though more immediately, his roster spot is going to infielder Jose Osuna, who has been recalled from Triple-A. Chad Kuhl’s strong weekend outing likely bought him some additional length on his leash, but it still seems likely that Kingham will be starting games for the Pirates again at some point in 2018, whether due to injury or poor performance from one of the club’s other young starters.

Here’s more from the division…

  • Reds interim manager Jim Riggleman told reporters today that in spite of his considerable struggles, left Brandon Finnegan would make his next scheduled start (Twitter link via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic). Finnegan, 25, has been hammered for 19 earned runs on 27 hits (five homers) and 15 walks against 14 strikeouts in 20 2/3 innings so far in 2018. He hasn’t lasted more than five innings in any of his starts this season and has allowed three or more runs each time he’s taken the mound. There was plenty of debate as to whether Finnegan was best suited as a starter or reliever even prior to Cincinnati’s acquisition of him in the 2015 Johnny Cueto blockbuster with the Royals, and he’s yet to establish himself as a viable rotation piece at the game’s top level. Rosecrans notes that Riggleman wouldn’t commit to anything beyond his next outing, so it’s possible that Finnegan’s leash is running out. Finnegan does have minor league options remaining for this season and next.
  • Some Brewers fans have clamored for a promotion of infield prospect Mauricio Dubon, who has a 23-game hitting streak going in Triple-A, but Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports that Dubon incurred a knee injury over the weekend and is headed to Milwaukee to be examined by team physician Dr. William Raasch. Farm director Tom Flanagan tells Haudricourt that the hope is that Dubon is dealing only with a strain, though the organization won’t know until further testing and imaging is performed. Dubon suffered the injury while executing a rundown in Saturday’s game. Acquired alongside Travis Shaw in the Tyler Thornburg deal with the Red Sox, Dubon is hitting .343/.348/.574 with four homers and six steals in 114 plate appearances this season.

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