Dodgers Place Max Muncy On Injured List
The Dodgers announced a handful of moves before tonight’s series opener with the Giants. Right-hander Emmet Sheehan was selected to start tonight, as previously reported. Los Angles also recalled infield prospect Michael Busch from Triple-A Oklahoma City. They put Max Muncy on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to June 13, with a left hamstring strain while optioning right-hander Michael Grove to Triple-A.
Muncy has been hobbled by the hamstring for the past few days. He’d hoped to avoid the IL but still isn’t at full strength. Skipper Dave Roberts downplayed real concern, saying the club was confident the power-hitting infielder would be back once first eligible a week from now (relayed by Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic).
Chris Taylor is getting the start at third base tonight. Busch could also factor into that mix as part of his second MLB stint. The former first-round pick got into seven games earlier in the year, hitting .211/.348/.211 over 23 trips to the dish.
Sheehan, on the other hand, is making his big league debut. It’s more than just a spot start for the Boston College product. Roberts said they’re likely to give Sheehan a couple turns through the rotation with Grove heading to the minors (relayed by Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). Grove has had a tough go this season, allowing an 8.10 ERA over 30 innings across seven appearances.
The Dodgers’ Youth Movement Is Showing Positive Results
The Dodgers are coming off a relatively modest offseason by their standards, giving out a few one-year deals to free agents and making some small trades. It seems that may have been partially motivated by a desire to get under the luxury tax, though that plan effectively went out the window when Trevor Bauer‘s suspension was reduced and some of his salary was put back on their books. Leaving the financials aside, there was another argument for the light touch in the winter. They had a crop of young players who seemed ready for some big league looks, having six players on Baseball America’s top 100 list coming into the year (Diego Cartaya, Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch, Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone) despite ten consecutive postseason berths.
What results have been produced in the first six weeks of the season? Let’s take a look.
Remarkably, the young player who has stood out the most so far at the big league level is Outman, who wasn’t even one of the six Dodgers on the Baseball America top 100. BA actually ranked him the 10th best prospect in the system coming into the year. In fact, there’s been a wide gap in the evaluations on Outman throughout the industry on account of his incredible athleticism but huge strikeout concerns. Keith Law of The Athletic was bullish enough to rank Outman #89 in the league, but Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs had him down at #26 in the Dodgers’ system.
Outman, 26 years old this weekend, made the club’s Opening Day roster and is showing both the positive and negative sides of his game so far. He’s struck out in 32.7% of his plate appearances, currently the seventh-highest among all qualified hitters in the majors. But despite those punchouts, he’s hit eight home runs in 38 games and is batting .281/.374/.578 overall for a wRC+ of 158. He won’t be able to maintain a .389 batting average on balls in play all year, but he is hitting the ball with some authority when he does make contact. His average exit velocity is in the 54th percentile among qualified hitters, maximum exit velocity 73rd, hard-hit rate 71st and barrel rate 84th.
In addition to that, he’s also stolen four bases and seems to be a capable defender in the outfield, where he’s spent most of his time in center. Defensive Runs Saved has him just below average at -1, whereas he’s at +3 Outs Above Average and has a 2.0 Ultimate Zone Rating.
Vargas, 23, made his major league debut last year but hit just .170/.200/.255 in his first 50 plate appearances. Nonetheless, the club seemed to head into this year with the plan being for him to take over second base while Gavin Lux slid over to shortstop, though Lux eventually suffered a season-ending injury and was replaced by Miguel Rojas.
The club’s confidence in Vargas seems to be paying off so far. He’s walked in 14.6% of his plate appearances while striking out at just a 19% clip. He’s launched four home runs and his .219/.338/.430 batting line amounts to a 113 wRC+. That’s despite a .247 BABIP that’s well below this year’s .297 league average. His Statcast metrics aren’t quite as strong as Outman’s, but it still seems like luck-based regression should work in his favor, given his .265 xBA.
The defensive picture is a little less rosy, however, as he has negative grades from all three of DRS, UZR and OAA so far. That’s not terribly shocking since he was primarily a third baseman in the minors and his experience at the keystone is minimal. Perhaps his glovework at second will improve with more reps, but the club might also consider a position change in the future.
Busch, 25, was added to the club’s roster almost three weeks ago but has received only scattered playing time so far, 23 plate appearances in seven games. He’s hit just .211/.348/.211 in that time while striking out at a 39.1% clip. In 606 Triple-A appearances, he’s slashed .277/.363/.484 for a wRC+ of 109 with a much more palatable 24.8% strikeout rate.
Michael Grove/Ryan Pepiot/Gavin Stone/Bobby Miller
These four pitchers are all touted prospects to varying degrees and have either made their major league debuts or are getting close, though none of them has been able to make significant contributions just yet.
Grove, 26, has perhaps the lowest prospect stock of the bunch, as he was considered the club’s #18 prospect by BA and #12 by FanGraphs coming into the year. He’s made 11 appearances at the major league level between last year and this year but has a 5.96 ERA and modest 18.3% strikeout rate. He’s been on the injured list for the past three weeks due to a groin strain.
Pepiot, 25, made nine appearances for the club last year with a 3.47 ERA. He was expected to take an Opening Day rotation spot when Tony Gonsolin was injured, but then Pepiot suffered an oblique strain, which allowed Grove to take that spot. Pepiot was eventually transferred to the 60-day injured list, meaning he won’t be eligible to rejoin the big league club until the end of May at the earliest.
Stone, 24, was selected to the roster just over a week ago and had one rough spot start before getting optioned back to down to the minors. But in 13 Triple-A starts between last year and this year, he has a 2.87 ERA, 29.2% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate.
Miller, 24, is not yet on the 40-man roster and isn’t off to a great start this year. In 2022, between Double-A and Triple-A, he had a 4.25 ERA in 112 1/3 innings. He struck out 30.9% of opponents in that time against a 7.9% walk rate. But this year, he was slowed by shoulder soreness in spring and didn’t debut until recently. He’s pitched just five innings over two Triple-A outings, with a 7.20 ERA in that minuscule sample.
Future Options
Diego Cartaya is considered by many to be the club’s best prospect, though he’s not as close as some of the others. The 21-year-old catcher is on the 40-man roster but just reached Double-A for the first time this year and has limped out to a .186/.253/.314 batting line through his first 79 plate appearances at that level. With Will Smith and Austin Barnes holding down the big league jobs, there’s little reason for the club to rush Cartaya.
Andy Pages, 22, didn’t make BA’s top 100 list, but FanGraphs had him all the way up at #58. Like Cartaya, the outfielder is on the 40-man roster but is down in Double-A. Unlike Cartaya, he’s off to a roaring start there, hitting .281/.429/.490 for a wRC+ of 141 through 126 plate appearances this year.
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After a middling start to the 2023 season, the Dodgers have surged forward in recent weeks are now 23-15, taking the top spot in the National League West. They may not be quite as dominant as some other recent seasons, but there’s still plenty going right for them. At least part of that is due to the contributions of Outman and Vargas, who have stepped into everyday roles and are doing well. The pitching is still a work in progress due to various injuries throughout that mix, so they’ll need a bit more time for things to come into focus there.
Since they had a fairly limited offseason coming into this year, the Dodgers currently have about $82MM committed to the 2024 team, per Roster Resource. That doesn’t include arbitration salaries for players like Smith, May and others, but it seems like they could be well positioned to be more aggressive next winter. The areas that they target will likely be influenced by the performance of some of these rookies the rest of the way. The rotation is currently slated to lose Julio Urías, Noah Syndergaard and Clayton Kershaw at season’s end. Kershaw could always come back and the eventual return of Walker Buehler from Tommy John surgery will help, but one of the younger pitchers stepping up would also be a tremendous help.
On the position player side of things, J.D. Martinez, David Peralta and Jason Heyward are set for free agency, but the rest of the group should still be around. If Outman and Vargas keep playing well, or someone like Busch or Pages takes a step forward, it’s possible the club goes into the winter with lots of payroll space and few holes to fill.
Dodgers Place J.D. Martinez On Injured List, Activate Will Smith
The Dodgers announced a handful of roster moves before tonight’s series opener with St. Louis. Will Smith has been reinstated from the concussion injured list, while Max Muncy and Brusdar Graterol are each back from paternity leave. In corresponding active roster moves, J.D. Martinez was placed on the 10-day IL while Luke Williams and Justin Bruihl were optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City.
Smith missed a little under two weeks after sustaining a concussion on a series of foul tips off the mask. The Dodgers were originally planning to stretch his IL stay into this weekend but Martinez’s injury accelerated his return by a day or two. Smith won’t immediately hop back behind the dish; he’s in tonight’s lineup as the designated hitter in Martinez’s stead.
The Dodgers will stick with three catchers on the active roster for the time being. Smith’s injury led L.A. to sign Austin Wynns to a major league contract to back up Austin Barnes. Wynns can’t be optioned to the minor leagues, so the Dodgers would have to keep three catchers on the active roster if they don’t want to risk losing him.
Martinez’s IL placement was backdated to April 25, ruling him out for at least a week. He’s been hampered by back soreness in recent days; the club announced the issue as lower back tightness. The offseason signee is off to a strong start to his Dodger tenure. Through 23 games, he carries a .250/.306/.534 line with four home runs over 98 plate appearances.
Meanwhile, the decision to option Williams means L.A. will keep rookie Michael Busch on the MLB roster for now. The Dodgers promoted the top hitting prospect once Muncy hit the paternity list earlier this week. There was some thought it could be a temporary promotion but Busch will get more than the three games he’s logged so far. The North Carolina product has started his MLB career 1-11.
Dodgers To Promote Michael Busch
The Dodgers are going to promote prospect Michael Busch, reports Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. Busch will take the roster spot of Max Muncy, who is going on the paternity list. Busch is already on the 40-man roster and won’t require a corresponding move in that regard. The Dodgers are off tonight but start a series in Pittsburgh tomorrow, when the move should be made official.
Busch, 25, was a first round pick of the Dodgers, getting selected 31st overall in 2019. He has since been posting excellent numbers in the minors, showing both tremendous power and patience in the box. He spent all of 2021 in Double-A, walking in 14.1% of his plate appearances and hitting 20 home runs in 107 games. Last year, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting 32 home runs in 142 games between those two levels, walking in 11.5% of his trips to the plate. His combined .274/.365/.516 batting line translated to a 118 wRC+. Busch was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s off to a roaring start here in 2023, hitting .337/.461/.506 through 21 Triple-A games.
If there’s a knock on Busch, it’s on the defensive side of things. A first baseman in college, he’s spent a bit of time there recently but has seen the bulk of his action as a professional at second base. He’s also had short stints at third base and left field. Playing all of those different positions is less a reflection of versatility and more a suggestion that he’s not really a strong defender and is a work in progress as the Dodgers try to find a home for him in the field. Some evaluators have compared him to the player he’s replacing today, Muncy, as both players combine power and plate discipline with some degree of defensive versatility.
The Dodgers had a relatively modest offseason by their standards, letting notable players depart while signing various veterans to one-year deals. That’s allowed them to give some runway to various younger players, such as Miguel Vargas, James Outman, Michael Grove and Ryan Pepiot, though the latter two are now on the injured list. Busch will be latest youngster to get a crack at the big leagues.
Coming into this year, Busch was ranked around the middle of many top 100 prospect lists, including Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. The first two of those are potentially significant, given the rules under the new collective bargaining agreement. It’s too late in the season for Busch to get to a full year of service time the traditional way, but his status as a top prospect provides him with an alternate path. Under the new CBA, players with less than 60 days of service time that are on two of the preseason top 100 lists of Baseball America, MLB Pipeline or ESPN can earn a full year of service regardless of when they were called up if they finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting.
That may end up being a fairly moot point in this case, as it seems possible that Busch will only get a brief stay in the bigs while Muncy is on the paternity list. But if he somehow manages to stick around and perform well enough to get some decent Rookie of the Year votes, he could get himself to that full year. He didn’t crack the top 100 at ESPN but the BA and MLB Pipeline ranks are enough to get that on the table.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Dodgers Select Four Players
The Dodgers have selected catcher Diego Cartaya, infielder Michael Busch and outfielders Andy Pages and Jonny DeLuca to the 40-man roster, per a team announcement. That quartet is now protected from being taken in next month’s Rule 5 Draft.
It’s a notable group to join the 40-man roster. Cartaya, Busch and Pages, in particular, all rank among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects in the game, with Cartaya drawing a particularly impressive placement at No. 9 overall.
The 21-year-old Cartaya split his 2022 season between Class-A and High-A, where he was notably younger than the league average at both levels. The age gap didn’t deter him, however, as he turned in a combined .254/.389/.503 batting line with 22 home runs and doubles alike. Cartaya is considered a work in progress with the glove but boasts huge raw power and a keen eye at the plate, evidenced by a walk rate north of 14% in 2022.
Busch, meanwhile, is a second baseman who slugged 32 home runs, walked at an 11.5% clip and struck out in 26% of his plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. His combined .274/.365/.516 batting line shows plenty of promise, even though scouting reports question his overall defensive value. BA lists him 46th on its top 100.
Pages, ranked 72nd by BA, hit .236/.336/.468 in 132 games as a 21-year-old in Double-A, more than holding his own against more advanced pitching. He also fared well in the Arizona Fall League, batting .296/.398/.506 in his 98 plate appearances there. He swatted 26 home runs in Double-A this year and 31 in High-A a year ago, and BA notes that Pages has some of the best raw power of any prospect in baseball.
As for DeLuca, the 24-year-old doesn’t draw the same fanfare as today’s other three additions, but his .260/.347/.541 batting line, 25 homers, 22 doubles, five triples and 17 stolen bases were convincing enough for the Dodgers to protect him. DeLuca fanned in just 14.3% of his 119 plate appearances in Double-A this year, and while that’s a small sample from a late-in-the-year promotion, it likely tickets him for a return effort there to begin the 2023 season. With a strong showing, he could be in Triple-A before long, and a look in the Majors next season is certainly plausible now that he’s in the upper minors and on the 40-man.
Dodgers Mull Rotation Options
Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has yet to name David Price‘s replacement in the rotation, but Tony Gonsolin isn’t likely to claim the spot, writes J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. Gonsolin certainly put together enough of an effort in 2019 (2.93 ERA/3.86 FIP across 11 appearances, six starts), but according to Roberts, the issue is that Gonsolin is behind his competitors in terms of building up the strength a starter needs to accumulate heavy usage.
In a vacuum, Ross Stripling would figure to be the top candidate to join Clayton Kershaw, Alex Wood, Julio Urias, and Walker Buehler in the rotation. Despite being temporarily traded to the Angels, Stripling’s been largely productive as a swingman and occasional starter for the Dodgers. While contributing between 74 and 122 innings over the last four seasons, Stripling has never had an ERA or FIP higher than 3.96, coming in his rookie season. In this environment, however, roles will have as much to do with readiness as past performance. Dustin May could certainly earn some consideration for the rotation, as could Dennis Santana. Edwin Uceta could also get a look. May, 22, has the highest upside of the group.
In other news from camp, the Dodgers added six players to their 60-man player pool, writes Hoornstra (via Twitter). Michael Busch, Anthony Garcia, Landon Knack, Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Edubray Ramos and Carson Taylor all join the pool as non-roster invitees.
Dodgers Sign First-Rounder Michael Busch
JULY 5: The Dodgers have signed Busch for full slot value, Jim Callis of MLB.com tweets.
JULY 3: The Dodgers are closing in on an agreement with first-round pick Michael Busch, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. The two sides will ultimately reach a deal, according to Heyman. As the 31st overall choice, Busch’s selection calls for a $2.31MM slot value.
Busch, a former University of North Carolina first baseman, is one of two first-rounders the Dodgers reeled in during this year’s draft. They nabbed third baseman Kody Hoese, who’s already signed, at No. 25 overall. The club received the pick it used on Busch as compensation for not signing 30th overall choice J.T. Ginn in 2018.
Entering the draft, ESPN’s Keith Law (No. 16), Baseball America (24), FanGraphs (24), MLB.com (26) ranked Busch in the vicinity of where the Dodgers picked him. Law (subscription required) credits Busch as disciplined hitter who showed “quick hands” and an ability to make impactful contact at UNC. While Heyman notes Busch could become the Dodgers’ second baseman, Law suggests he’ll be limited to first and questions whether he’ll even perform well there in the majors.