Fixing The Mets
The New York Post's Joel Sherman offered up some suggestions for shaking things up in the Mets clubhouse this offseason. He worries that Luis Castillo won't be able to replicate his strong 2009 and that Jeff Francoeur (.826 OPS with New York) may not be able to build on his solid second half. Unsurprisingly, his chief concern is the Mets starting rotation.
However, Sherman suggests that the Mets first address their other holes before looking at starting pitchers, considering the weak crop available this winter:
"Put out strong one-year offers with a 2011 option to a group at each position. Say Rod Barajas/Bengie Molina/Miguel Olivo at catcher; Nick Johnson/Russ Branyan/Adam LaRoche at first: and Bobby Abreu, Mark DeRosa and Jermaine Dye for left field. The first guy to take the offer in each group gets the contract."
The Mets were linked to Bobby Abreu for some time last offseason, so it would make sense for them to re-visit that idea again this year. Adam LaRoche looks like a completely different player in Atlanta, posting .354/.432/.618 with 12 HRs in 49 games. Abreu projects to be a Type A free agent whereas LaRoche should be a Type B.
Should the Mets address their pitching woes via free agency? As badly as they need to bolster spots two through five, there won't be a great deal of options available. Would you extend multi-year deals to the likes of Rich Harden or Joel Pineiro? Should the Mets pick up where they left off last year and consider Randy Wolf?
Discussion: Randy Wolf
In the midst of a renaissance year at the age of 33, it's hard to peg Randy Wolf's value heading into free agency. The left-handed starter has posted an ERA of 3.24 (4.25 xFIP) to go along with a 6.8 K/9 and a career best 2.3 BB/9. Detracting from his value of course, is his injury history. Wolf averaged just 94 innings per season between 2004 and 2007.
Even the Astros had a hard time ascertaining his value in a slumping economy last winter. Ed Wade offered Wolf a three-year deal worth $28.5MM before pulling it almost immediately.
Wolf proved to be one of the biggest bargains of the 2009 free agent class, signing a one-year deal with the Dodgers with a base value of $5MM. Even when factoring in the incentives that Wolf will earn for his 200+ innings, (bringing the total to $8MM) he is still a tremendous value as Fangraphs estimates his worth up to this point to be $14MM.
Jayson Stark sees Wolf as the second best starting pitcher in the 2010 free agent class. Stark also quotes one general manager as saying, "I don't think there's one pitcher in this entire group I'd invest a lot of money in. Not one."
Would you extend a major contract offer to Wolf considering his injury-riddled past? Could Wolf command a contract in the vicinity of $40MM over three years?
Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Dodgers, DeRosa, Cubs, Managers, General Managers
Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com has a new Full Count video up, so let's dive right on in…
- Southpaws Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw are likely to start the first two games of the playoffs for the Dodgers, but Kershaw must recover from his dislocated non-throwing shoulder first. The back-to-back lefties would be a big advantage if LA played the lefthanded hitter heavy Phillies. Rosenthal also mentions that the Cardinals, despite being so righty heavy, have the second lowest team OPS (.675) against lefthanded pitchers in the National League.
- Hiroki Kuroda would likely start game three for the Dodgers, followed by either Vicente Padilla or Jon Garland. Chad Billinglsey will likely be left out of the rotation.
- The Cards have put their contract extension talks with Mark DeRosa on hold until the offseason, making it more likely that he'll become a free agent. The deal St. Louis originally proposed was less than the three-year, $17.5MM contract Casey Blake received as a free agent last offseason. DeRosa is a year younger now than Blake was then, but the offseason wrist surgery he is scheduled to have makes the situation cloudy.
- The Cubs will be open to "anything and everything" this offseason, including trading Milton Bradley and/or Carlos Zambrano. Anything to improve the club, basically. However, perhaps the only way the Cubs could unload Bradley would be to take on another underachieving, overpaid player in return.
- Zambrano has a full no-trade clause and is owed $54MM over the next three years, but he's still only 28-years-old and still incredibly talented. The free agent market for starting pitching is thin, which may work in Chicago's favor. Big Z might be appealing at the right price.
- Ken Macha will likely remain with the Brewers, but at least four other managers are in danger of being fired. The list starts with Cecil Cooper of the Astros, and also includes Jim Riggleman of the Nationals, Dave Trembley of the Orioles, and Eric Wedge of the Indians.
- Among general managers, Ned Colletti of the Dodgers, Brian Sabean of the Giants, and Dan O'Dowd of the Rockies are all without contracts for next year, and two of them are going to the postseason. The only GM that appears to be in jeopardy of losing his job is J.P. Ricciardi of the Blue Jays.
Heyman’s Latest: Mets, D-Backs, Indians
Jon Heyman takes a look at three teams that underachieved this season and how each might approach the off-season…
New York Mets
- Heyman thinks the payroll will be about the same next season, noting that any attempt to lower the payroll would be a tough sell to the fans.
- Needs include left fielder, first baseman, catcher, starting pitcher and overall depth.
- Mets are looking at Matt Holliday and Jason Bay and could target Adrian Gonzalez and Bengie Molina.
- Starting pitchers the Mets may pursue include Randy Wolf, Jon Garland and Jason Marquis as well as Roy Halladay if he's available.
- Mets may try to move Luis Castillo and replace him with Orlando Hudson.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Heyman hears the D-Backs will try to sign Brandon Webb to a new deal at slightly less than the $8.5MM option they have for next season.
- The D-Backs may try to re-sign Doug Davis, but that will still leave a couple of holes in the rotation.
- Arizona may try to fill the second base job via trade. Heyman suggests that Eric Byrnes and Chris Snyder could be trade bait and feels Byrnes could be moved for Castillo.
Cleveland Indians
- Heyman says the Indians need to replace Carl Pavano's ability to eat innings.
- The Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee deals saved the Indians $21MM, some of which could be used in free agency.
Other notes…
- It looks like Andy Pettitte will reach most of the incentives in his contract, nearly doubling his base salary of $5.5MM.
- Dan Uggla feels he will be traded this off-season and Heyman says the Marlins won't want to pay his arbitration figure.
Stark On Free Agent Pitchers
"I don't think there's one pitcher in this entire group I'd invest a lot of money in. Not one," said one general manager to ESPN's Jayson Stark. This year's collection of free agent pitchers doesn't have the star power that last year's CC Sabathia highlighted crop had, or that next year's group led by Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee will have, but there will still be plenty of money thrown around.
As Stark explains, club officials seem to be down on available starters this year, describing them as "risky," "weak," "terrible," and "mediocre" among other things. One AL executive said that "There are some guys in this group who are dependable. Except they're dependable to give you 5.00 ERAs and 180 innings. And that's not what you want to build a staff around."
Regardless, Stark ranks the top ten starting pitching options in this year's free agent class. Here's a roundup of his list, with quotes from various sources…
- John Lackey: "He's the best name on the list," one exec said. "But if Anaheim shies away from this guy or doesn't make a serious attempt to sign him, I'd have concerns. They know him better than everyone else. So that would send out some serious red flags for me."
- Randy Wolf: He's "durable, dependable and left-handed," one GM said. And he's also "two 190-plus-inning seasons removed from any health issues."
- Joel Piniero: One GM said "I'd have interest in Pineiro, but I'd never invest multi-years in that guy. Just too inconsistent a track record."
- Jason Marquis: "He's having a great year," said an official of one team. "But I'm just not sure how to look at it. Was this a turning point in his career? Or do you look at it as somebody who turned it up and figured it out when he had the most to gain? I really don't know."
- Rich Harden: "I'd be scared to death to commit years to this guy," one AL exec said. "He's been used kind of like Pedro [Martinez] was used in the past, where they're always trying to build in an extra day's rest. And he's just a five-inning guy, in the National League. He might strike out 10, but he'll only go five innings, so he still kills your 'pen. He'll get some money. I just don't see anybody giving him more than a year."
- Andy Pettitte: One exec described his situation as "will probably either stay in New York or shut it down."
- Jarrod Washburn: One GM said, "he's 35 years old, and [before this year] his last winning season was [2004]."
- Jon Garland: "He doesn't have the stuff the other guys on this list have, but he's proven he's durable, and durability counts," said an official of one team. "It's like they say in golf: Most putts that you hit short don't go in. Well, most pitchers that don't make a start don't win. This guy at least makes his starts."
- Doug Davis: "Made for the NL West."
- Brad Penny: An executive said "He's the kind of guy who, if you give him a multiyear deal, he'll crush your franchise. Is somebody going to sign him for four years and expect 120 starts? Good luck."
Stark also names several players he calls "X-Factors," which are guys who could enter the market with major question marks. Included in this group are Brandon Webb, Erik Bedard, John Smoltz, Randy Johnson, Brett Myers, and Vicente Padilla. We could even add Chien-Ming Wang's name to that list.
Odds And Ends: Oliver, Wolf, Penny
Links for Thursday morning…
- Darren Oliver doesn't know for sure if he'll play again next year, but he tells Bill Shaikin of the LA Times that he's leaning towards returning for another season
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post believes the Mets made the wrong choice last winter, when they went after Oliver Perez instead of Randy Wolf, who has quietly out-performed Perez for less money.
- Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald wonders if Brad Penny could return to the Marlins, now that the Red Sox released him.
- Padres starter Clayton Richard has been outstanding since joining the Padres in the Jake Peavy trade, as Adam Rosenberg of MLB.com notes.
Dodgers Looking For Arms
GM Ned Colletti "is on his annual Trade Deadline search for pitching help," according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com.
According to Gurnick, Colletti "will inquire about" Roy Halladay, although the package of players required to net the Toronto ace would probably need to start with Clayton Kershaw.
The Dodgers also seek a reliever to replace the injured Ronald Belisario in the seventh-inning role. Gurnick writes that "management isn't convinced it has a replacement for Belisario in-house."
Finally, Gurnick says that the Dodgers are in the market for a fifth starter "along the lines of another Randy Wolf."
The Dodgers’ Rotation
They're 15-8, in first place in the NL West, but the Dodgers face questions about a rotation that includes three ERAs of 5.50 or more. Behind Chad Billingsley and Randy Wolf, they have Clayton Kershaw, who hasn't pitched out the the fifth inning his last two starts, James McDonald, who has walked a batter an inning this year, and Eric Stults, who's allowing two baserunners an inning. Yahoo's Tim Brown takes stock of the rotation and how Ned Colletti will progress with it.
- Brown says it's unlikely the Dodgers will add Pedro Martinez, Paul Byrd, Odalis Perez or Freddy Garcia.
- One scout's analysis: "There's plenty of pitching available. None you'd want."
- Brown suggests the Dodgers need a club like the Indians, Reds or Mariners to fall from contention so some quality arms become available.
- If David Price pitches his way into the Rays' rotation, Jeff Niemann could become trade bait.
The Dodgers could rely on pitchers already in the organization. Hiroki Kuroda is rehabbing, though MLB.com's Ken Gurnick reports the righty is likely weeks away from a return. Jason Schmidt is rehabbing too, according to Gurnick. Jeff Weaver pitched well against the Padres last night and Eric Milton and Shawn Estes are stashed away in the minors.
Odds & Ends: Zimmerman, Devine, Wolf
Links for Wednesday…
- WEEI's Alex Speier points out that Ryan Zimmerman's deal mirrors the Kevin Youkilis extension, despite the difference in performance. Tyler Hissey of Around The Majors likes the Zimmerman contract nonetheless.
- Speier also reports that the Red Sox placed pitcher Devern Hansack on unconditional release waivers, not long after he dislocated his shoulder. UPDATE: Hansack will be re-signed to a minor league deal.
- Athletics reliever Joey Devine had Tommy John surgery, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
- Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star talked to Royals GM Dayton Moore, who said the decision to recall Brian Bannister over Luke Hochevar was not financially motivated.
- Randy Wolf doesn't have hard feelings toward the Astros, according to MLB.com's Michael Murphy. The 'Stros wisely yanked their three-year, $28.5MM offer to Wolf in November.
- Josh Levitt names the worst contract extensions in the game.
Astros Rumors: Looper, Wolf, Pudge
MLB.com’s Alyson Footer spoke with Astros GM Ed Wade and has the latest on the club.
- The Astros made "11th-hour" offers to Randy Wolf and Braden Looper before they signed elsewhere.
- They offered Wolf a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2010.
- The offers to Wolf and Looper were both for less than $5MM.
- The Astros haven’t spoken with Ivan Rodriguez in weeks and never made him a formal offer.
- Wade says he isn’t likely to make any moves between now and the regular season.