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Robbie Ray

Mariners Leadership Discusses Offseason Plans, Injury Updates, Coaching Staff

By Nick Deeds | October 3, 2023 at 6:28pm CDT

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, GM Justin Hollander, and manager Scott Servais conducted an end-of-season press conference with reporters this afternoon. The presser covered a variety of topics, including the club’s plans for the offseason, the future of the coaching staff, and updates regarding a few of the club’s injured players.

Dipoto took the opportunity to respond to comments from catcher Cal Raleigh on the night of Seattle’s elimination from postseason contention, in which he called upon the front office to spend more aggressively this offseason than the club has in the past and referenced other teams that acquired “big-time” pitchers and hitters in recent offseasons.

“His opinions are his own, and I don’t begrudge anybody the ability to share their opinions,” Dipoto said (as transcribed from a video courtesy of Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times), “I don’t know that the solution to our problems is big name players… but would I like to add big name players? Sure, I think we all would. I think that to the extent that Cal was trying to express an opinion, and I can’t speak for him, he wants to get better… we all do. Whether that is by way of a big-name player, you know, there are a number of teams that are evidence that that might not be the only way you can build a roster.”

For his part, Hollander added (as relayed by MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer) that the club has “plenty of resources” headed into the offseason with which to acquire talent, both in terms of player capital for potential trades and financial power, as they look to return to the postseason in 2024.  That tracks with publicly available information on Seattle’s financial situation headed into 2024. The club spent $152MM on player payroll in 2023, with the luxury tax payroll just passing $196MM. Before accounting for arbitration-level contracts, the club has around $45MM of budget space if the club’s budget remains stagnant relative to 2023, with over $75MM to work with for luxury tax purposes.

Servais, meanwhile, said (per Divish) that while the roles and responsibilities of certain personnel may change, the club expects to welcome back its entire coaching staff for the 2024 campaign. Hollander, meanwhile, provided updates on several injured players including left-hander Marco Gonzales and first baseman Evan White, both of whom are expected to be ready for Spring Training next year.

The longest-tenured member of the Mariners, rotation, Gonzales made 131 starts for the club between 2018 and 2022 with a 3.94 ERA and 4.35 FIP, but managed just 50 innings of work this season due to a nerve issue that eventually required season-ending surgery. White, meanwhile, underwent hip surgery back in May. The 27-year-old signed a $24MM extension with Seattle prior to his big league debut but has struggled to hit at the big league level, with a career slash line of just .165/.235/.308.

The biggest news, as relayed by Adam Jude of the Seattle Times, was regarding that of left-hander Robbie Ray. The 2021 AL Cy Young award winner underwent Tommy John surgery back in May, and he appears to be making progress as expected in his rehab process, with the club considering a return around the 2024 All Star break to be a “best-case scenario.” That would be just under 14 months after Ray underwent the surgery, on the quicker end of the typical Tommy John rehab for pitchers, which usually takes around 14-18 months. Ray posted a 3.71 ERA across 32 starts for the Mariners in 2022 but made just one appearance in 2023, allowing five runs (three earned) in 3 1/3 innings before departing his first start of the season due to injury.

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Seattle Mariners Evan White Jerry Dipoto Justin Hollander Marco Gonzales Robbie Ray Scott Servais

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Mariners Select Ty Adcock

By Anthony Franco | June 12, 2023 at 7:37pm CDT

The Mariners announced they’ve selected right-hander Ty Adcock onto the big league roster. Reliever Penn Murfee hit the 15-day injured list with elbow inflammation in a corresponding move. To clear a spot on the 40-man roster, Seattle transferred Robbie Ray from the 15-day to the 60-day IL.

Adcock, 26, gets his first major league call. A college teammate of George Kirby at Elon, Adcock also joined the Seattle organization in the 2019 draft. Seattle selected him in the eighth round and moved him to relief in pro ball after a college career as a two-way player. At the time, Baseball America praised a fastball that could touch 98 MPH and an intriguing slider.

The 6’0″ righty hasn’t logged a ton of professional experience. The pandemic cancelation of 2020 and an April ’21 Tommy John procedure prevented him from throwing his first minor league inning until last August. Adcock logged just eight innings late in the year, then started this season in High-A Everett. He tossed seven scoreless frames there to earn a bump to Double-A Arkansas in early May.

Through 13 innings in the Texas League, the North Carolina native has a stellar 13:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s up to 22 punchouts and only three free passes in 20 combined innings of 1.35 ERA ball on the year. That was enough for the M’s to look past his lack of professional experience to plug him directly into the MLB bullpen. While he makes the jump past Triple-A for now, he has three option years remaining and could eventually find himself back in the minors as Seattle juggles its relief corps moving forward.

Murfee just returned from an IL stint last week. He’d missed around five weeks battling a flexor mass strain in his forearm. During his first appearance back yesterday, the 29-year-old righty again experienced arm discomfort. Manager Scott Servais said this afternoon that Murfee was headed for an MRI (relayed by Curtis Crabtree of Fox 13). He’ll miss at least two weeks as the club tries to determine the source of the injury.

Ray is done for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last month. There was never any question he’d move to the 60-day IL when Seattle needed to create a 40-man vacancy. Ray will spent the rest of the year on the IL but has to be reinstated at the start of the offseason.

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Seattle Mariners Transactions Penn Murfee Robbie Ray Ty Adcock

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Robbie Ray Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

By Darragh McDonald | May 3, 2023 at 6:00pm CDT

The Mariners provided an update today on left-hander Robbie Ray, who was reported last week to require season-ending flexor tendon surgery. “Ray, 31, had surgery today on his left elbow,” the press release reads. “The surgery was performed by Dr. Keith Meister at TMI Sports Medicine in Arlington, Texas. Dr. Meister performed a flexor tendon repair and reconstructed the Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL) in Ray’s left arm.” The flexor tendon surgery was already reported upon but the UCL reconstruction, also known as Tommy John surgery, wasn’t publicly known prior to today.

In the short term, this news doesn’t change much for the Mariners, as they’ve already been planning on operating without Ray for the remainder of the year. But since TJS typically requires a recovery period of 14 to 18 months, this update seems to indicate the club will be without Ray for even longer, likely a few months into the 2024 season as well.

That’s obviously unwelcome news, as Ray has been one of the better pitchers in the league in recent seasons. After some inconsistency earlier in his career, he had a tremendous season with the Blue Jays in 2021. He posted an ERA of 2.84 in 32 starts with a 32.1% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 37.2% ground ball rate. He won the American League Cy Young award and parlayed that performance into a five-year, $115MM deal with the Mariners.

His first year with Seattle was a bit of a drop-off from the previous season but still with plenty to like. He made 32 starts with a 3.71 ERA, striking out 27.4% of opponents, walking 8% and getting grounders at a 39.2% clip. That helped the Mariners break their postseason drought, making it into the playoffs for the first time since 2001. Unfortunately, he was only able to make a single start this year before landing on the injured list and likely won’t make another until midway through 2024.

The Mariners should still have a strong front four in the rotation between now and then as long as everyone is healthy. Luis Castillo and Marco Gonzales are both still under contract next year while both George Kirby and Logan Gilbert are still many years from qualifying for free agency. The final spot is a little less certain since Chris Flexen has been struggling and is slated for free agency after this season anyway. Prospect Bryce Miller was called up recently to start an audition and Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reported that it wasn’t going to be just a spot start. That was before Miller debuted and tossed six innings against the A’s, allowing just one earned run on two hits and no walks while striking out 10. It’s best not to read too much into just one game, but given that the club planned on giving him a lengthy stay in the rotation anyway and he dominated his first time out, he seems to have a legitimate chance at securing a rotation spot going forward.

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Seattle Mariners Bryce Miller Robbie Ray

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Robbie Ray To Miss Remainder Of Season Due To Flexor Tendon Surgery

By Darragh McDonald | April 26, 2023 at 11:25pm CDT

Mariners left-hander Robbie Ray will undergo flexor tendon repair surgery, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Ray will not be able to return this season. The lefty had already been on the 15-day injured list due to a flexor strain but Divish adds that further testing revealed damage in a different area of the tendon.

The news is obviously terrible for both Ray and the Mariners, as he was a key part of the club’s plans for this year. After an up-and-down career with the Tigers and Diamondbacks, Ray stabilized himself in tremendous fashion with the Blue Jays in 2021. He had always had tremendous strikeout ability but struggled with command, walking 11% of batters he faced in his career by the end of the 2020 campaign. But the 2021 season saw him whittle that down to 6.7% while still getting punchouts at an incredible 32.1% clip. He finished the season with a 2.84 ERA and was awarded the American League Cy Young.

That breakout was perfectly timed, as he went into free agency immediately after, signing a five-year, $115MM deal with the Mariners with an opt-out after the third season. Last year, he naturally regressed from his incredible heights of the year before, but still had a solid year with Seattle. He made 32 starts and posted a 3.71 ERA, striking out 27.4% of opponents while walking 8%. That helped the club break their postseason drought, as they qualified for the playoffs for the first time since 2001. Unfortunately, 2023 season will now go down as a total loss, effectively. Ray made one start of just 3 1/3 innings before landing on the injured list and that will now be his entire tally for the year.

The Mariners have had six viable starters since their deadline acquisition of Luis Castillo last year, which bumped Chris Flexen into the bullpen. With Castillo, Ray, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Marco Gonzales set to be in the front five spots, it had been speculated by many that perhaps the club would look to trade Flexen in order to improve another area of the roster. In the end, they kept all six hurlers, a decision which now seems wise in the wake of Ray’s injury. Flexen has struggled so far this year, currently sporting an 8.86 ERA, but was plenty effective for the M’s in the two prior seasons.

This won’t impact the Mariners in the short term as they were already operating without Ray, but this will have a huge impact on their long-term plans now that a return of Ray later in the year is off the table. They have depth options on the 40-man such as Darren McCaughan, José Rodríguez and Easton McGee, but Divish relays word from manager Scott Servais that the club is re-evaluating their pitching depth in the wake of this news. The last time they needed a spot start, veteran journeyman Tommy Milone was given the nod.

Finding external pitching options at this time of the year can be tough as most teams are dealing with injuries of their own and few have decided to press the sell button so early. The free agents that are unsigned are usually still available because they haven’t been effective in a while. That’s certainly the case for Madison Bumgarner, who was just released by the Diamondbacks today, joining pitchers like Dallas Keuchel and Chris Archer on the open market.

The Mariners are currently 11-12 and in fourth place in the American League West, though they are by no means buried with just 2.5 games separating them and the division-leading Rangers. There’s still plenty of time for them to gain ground, but they will now have to do so without any contributions from their player making the highest salary this year.

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Newsstand Seattle Mariners Robbie Ray

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Mariners Place Robbie Ray On 15-Day Injured List

By Mark Polishuk | April 1, 2023 at 11:04pm CDT

5:44PM: Ray suffered a Grade 1 strain, Mariners manager Scott Servais told reporters (including MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer).  The team’s plan is to shut Ray down for two weeks and then re-evaluate after that period of daily treatment, with a rough timeline of 4-6 weeks until Ray’s eventual return from the IL.  Ray told media that he began to develop some flexor pain during the second inning of yesterday’s game.

3:24PM: Left-hander Robbie Ray has been placed on the Mariners’ 15-day injured list due to a left flexor strain.  Southpaw Gabe Speier was called up from Triple-A to take Ray’s spot on the active roster.

Ray made his season debut last night and only lasted 3 1/3 innings, allowing five runs (three earned) on four hits and five walks.  Even with Ray’s history of control issues, the five walks is probably the biggest indicator that something wasn’t quite right with Ray, and he threw 91 pitches over his 3 1/3 frames of work.  The Mariners have yet to publicly comment on the severity of Ray’s injury or a possible return timeline, but it would certainly seem like he’ll miss more than the minimum 15 days just out of pure caution in dealing with injuries in the forearm or elbow area.

After Ray won the AL Cy Young Award as a member of the Blue Jays in 2021, Seattle inked him to a five-year, $115MM free agent contract in the following offseason.  Ray’s first season as a Mariner wasn’t up to the level of his 2021 performance but it was still solid, as the southpaw posted a 3.71 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate, and a slightly below-average 8% walk rate.  Ray continued to allow a lot of hard contact, but that has been the norm throughout his MLB career.

Just three days into the 2023 season, the Mariners have already had to deal a notable rotation injury, after getting through 2022 with a remarkable run of health from its starters.  While the M’s have four off-days between today and April 25, the construction of their schedule means they will need a fifth starter in Ray’s absence, though Seattle has a very qualified replacement in Chris Flexen.  Trade rumors swirled around Flexen (and Marco Gonzales) for much of the offseason, though the Mariners’ decision to hang onto their starting depth is now looking wise in hindsight, especially if Ray is facing any kind of extended absence.

Speier is now set to make his first appearance in a Seattle uniform, after being claimed off waivers from the Royals last November.  Speier is also the only left-handed pitcher in a bullpen stacked with right-handed relievers, so Speier’s inclusion will add some balance to the relief mix.  A veteran of four MLB seasons, Speier has a 3.83 ERA over 40 career innings with the Royals, appearing in rather sporadic fashion for Kansas City since making his debut in the Show in 2019.

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Newsstand Seattle Mariners Transactions Gabe Speier Robbie Ray

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Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents

By Mark Polishuk | December 19, 2021 at 8:34pm CDT

Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order.  For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.

Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings.  First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.

For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks.  The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.

  • Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary.  The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+.  Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category.  If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
  • Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds.  The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers.  Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere.  The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town.  The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins).  For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
  • Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round.  Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.

Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…

  • Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021.  As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
  • Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021.  For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection.  For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft.  Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
  • Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents.  Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
  • Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season.  Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.
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2022 Amateur Draft Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers New York Mets San Diego Padres Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Carlos Correa Chris Taylor Corey Seager Eduardo Rodriguez Freddie Freeman Marcus Semien Michael Conforto Nick Castellanos Noah Syndergaard Robbie Ray Trevor Story

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Mariners Sign Robbie Ray

By Steve Adams | November 30, 2021 at 11:23pm CDT

The Mariners announced their agreement with reigning American League Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, as first reported by Michael Mayer of MetsMerized (Twitter link). It’s a five-year deal worth $115MM and an opt-out after the third season, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds that the contract includes a full no-trade clause in the first two seasons and a trade assignment bonus if he’s moved thereafter. Ray is represented by VC Sports Group.

Robbie Ray

Ray, 30, has long been a premier strikeout arm with command issues, which culminated in a 2020 season that saw him traded from Arizona to Toronto in what amounted to a salary dump. While the lefty didn’t immediately turn things around, the Jays jumped to re-sign him for a year and $8MM right out of the gate in the 2020-21 offseason, clearly believing they could help the lefty find another gear.

Even the Toronto front office’s best-case scenario might not have mirrored the 2021 breakout enjoyed by Ray, who was near-unanimously named AL Cy Young (29 of 30 first-place votes). Ray not only restored his command to prior levels but took it to new heights, walking a career-low 6.7% of his opponents. Ray ramped up the usage of his four-seamer at the expensive of his curveball, largely favoring a two-pitch mix that leaned heavily on his plus slider’s ability to perplex opponents.

The results were obviously outstanding, as Ray compiled an AL-best 2.84 ERA and also paced the American League in innings pitched (193 1/3), total strikeouts (248) and ERA+ (154). Among pitchers with at least 100 innings, Ray’s overall 32.1% strikeout rate trailed only Corbin Burnes, Carlos Rodon, Max Scherzer, Freddy Peralta and Gerrit Cole. His 15.5% swinging-strike rate ranked third among the 129 hurlers who tossed 100-plus frames.

Ray was still prone to the long ball, evidenced by an unsightly 1.54 HR/9 mark, but his ability to keep runners off the basepaths led to nearly 70 percent of those long balls coming with the bases empty. It’s fair to wonder how much concern over that penchant might have impacted his market and kept him from reaching a sixth guaranteed year, but one would also imagine that a move to Seattle and a move out of the generally hitter-friendly AL East will only help to lower that mark.

With Ray departing the Blue Jays, it’s hard to ignore the striking similarity between his contract and the $110MM guaranteed by his former team to another free-agent starter: righty Kevin Gausman. Perhaps the Jays weren’t keen on including an opt-out in the deal, or perhaps they just generally prefer Gausman to Ray when all is said and done. Toronto did pursue Gausman both in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 offseasons, so he’s clearly been of interest to GM Ross Atkins & Co. for quite some time.

In signing Ray, who rejected a qualifying offer in Toronto, the Mariners will surrender their third-highest selection in the 2022 draft. Toronto, meanwhile, will pick up a compensatory pick at the end of the first round by virtue of the fact that Ray signed for more than $50MM in guaranteed money.

With the Mariners, Ray will head up a rotation that also includes lefty Marco Gonzales, righty Chris Flexen and righty Logan Gilbert. Gonzales has long been a steady and durable source of above-average innings, while Flexen proved to be a savvy KBO reclamation project for president of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto and his staff this past offseason. Gilbert, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick and top-end pitching prospect who struggled in the middle of the 2021 season but bookended those struggles with a strong start and strong finish to the season.

Other options in the Seattle rotation currently include Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn, though the Mariners are deep in tantalizing pitching prospects after a protracted rebuilding effort. Top prospects George Kirby, Matt Brash and Emerson Hancock are all progressing through the system, with Brash and Kirby in particular not far from big league readiness. Lefty Brandon Williamson, too, could emerge as an option before long.

Of course, it’s fair to wonder with all that pitching depth and with a good bit of outfield depth, if the Mariners might not choose to trade for another established rotation piece. Ray figures to be the big-ticket free agent addition on the pitching side — not that they couldn’t simply sign another notable arm — but there’s a bevy of quality arms rumored to be available in trade. Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Luis Castillo have all had their names kicked about the rumor circuit already, and the Marlins are reportedly open to dealing from their pitching depth as well. Whether it’s a trade or a free agent, another addition to the starting staff to complement the Mariners’ new ace seems likely at some point.

For the time being, it’s possible Seattle will pivot to acquire the bat Dipoto has already suggested he hopes to sign. Dipoto name-checked both Marcus Semien (now with the Rangers) and Javier Baez earlier this winter in voicing a desire to add some “adaptable” free agents, and the Mariners have also been tied to Kris Bryant and Chris Taylor, among others.

From a payroll vantage point, there’s no reason the Mariners shouldn’t be able to add a high-end bat and another rotation addition piece. Even after adding Ray, the Mariners are still projected by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez to field a payroll of about $88MM (assuming an even distribution of his $23MM annual value). For a Mariners club that has taken payroll north of $150MM in the past, there’s plenty of space to add to pile. Ray currently stands as the largest free-agent addition the Mariners have made under Dipoto, but if he wants to spend more aggressively, the means to do should be present.

After all, the Mariners are staring down a two-decade playoff drought, and now more than ever might be the time for Seattle to push toward ending that dry spell. The Mariners were surprisingly in contention for a Wild Card berth right up until the final weekend of the offseason, and they’ll have even more products of their ballyhooed farm system graduating to the Majors in 2022 — headlined by outfielder Julio Rodriguez. Beyond that, the A’s are on the verge of a tear-down that will see them trade several key players, while the Astros could lose Carlos Correa in free agency. The Rangers are spending aggressively to help put a contender back on the field in the second season of their newly constructed stadium but may be a year or two from truly competing.

In many ways, the time for the Mariners to throttle ahead is now, and the signing of Ray serves as a firm indicator that the front office feels similarly. Armed with an elite farm system and tens of millions of dollars in payroll space, Seattle appears poised for an aggressive winter where Ray is just one of several high-end additions.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

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Twins, Tigers, Giants Interested In Robbie Ray

By Mark Polishuk | November 29, 2021 at 12:52am CDT

As free agent pitchers continue to fly off the board, AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray remains unsigned, though he is still drawing plenty of attention.  The Angels, Red Sox, and Blue Jays have been previously linked to Ray on the rumor mill, and The New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link) also lists the Twins, Tigers, and Giants as among the clubs with interest in the left-hander.  In addition, Sherman says to “keep an eye” on the Rangers, which isn’t surprising given how much Texas has already splurged on free agent talent, including another top pitcher in Jon Gray.

Of the new teams in the hunt for Ray, it isn’t surprising to see Detroit and San Francisco listed, as both clubs have already been looking for pitching and been aggressive with some early signings.  The Tigers agreed to sign Eduardo Rodriguez for five years and $77MM, while the Giants re-signed Anthony DeSclafani and were reportedly close to also retaining another familiar face in Alex Wood.

While Ray would obviously be a huge help to either team, the argument can be made that San Francisco has the bigger need.  Just about all of the Giants’ 2021 rotation was eligible for free agency, and leaving plenty of holes to be filled around Logan Webb.  DeSclafani’s return filled one gap and Wood would fill another if he also re-signed, though Kevin Gausman left the Giants to instead sign a five-year, $110MM deal with the Blue Jays.  If there is a silver lining to Gausman’s departure, it could be that Toronto would seemingly be less likely to re-sign Ray, removing some competition from the Giants’ pursuit.

The Tigers, meanwhile, have a somewhat fuller rotation in E-Rod, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal all lined up for starting jobs, though the latter trio are is long on promise but still short on experience at the Major League level.  Adding a proven veteran star like Ray makes that rotation much stronger, and also provides a full-circle moment since Ray formerly pitched for the Tigers during his 2014 rookie season.  Detroit acquired Ray from the Nationals for Doug Fister in December 2013, and then flipped him to the Diamondbacks a year later as part of a three-team swap with the Yankees.

Perhaps the bigger obstacle for a Motor City reunion might be the draft pick compensation attached to Ray for rejecting the Jays’ qualifying offer, as Detroit already gave up a pick to sign Rodriguez (who also rejected a QO from the Red Sox).  As a club who received revenue sharing in 2021, the Tigers’ penalty for Rodriguez was the loss of their third-highest selection, which will be either their second-round pick or their Competitive Balance Round pick, depending on which of the two CBRs the Tigers are drawn into this winter.

If the Tigers signed another QO-rejecting free agent like Ray, the Tigers would lose their fourth-highest selection in the 2022 draft.  Since Detroit still seems to be considering Ray, it would appear that losing two draft picks isn’t out of the question for the club.  The presence of the extra CBR selection does help ease the pain, and the Tigers have obviously built up a sturdy amount of young talent through their years of rebuilding.

Likewise, the Giants would also have to give up a draft pick for Ray.  Since San Francisco isn’t a revenue-sharing team and they didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021, the Giants would lose their second-highest pick and $500K from their international draft pool if they signed Ray or any other QO free agents.  San Francisco issued a qualifying offer to one of its own free agents this winter, though Brandon Belt ended up accepting the one-year deal to return to the team.

Minnesota is perhaps the most interesting of the new teams in the mix.  Like the Tigers, the Twins are a revenue-sharing recipient and also the holder of a Competitive Balance Round pick, which could mitigate the draft capital they’d lose to sign Ray.  The Twins also have a strong need for front-of-the-rotation pitching, since Jose Berrios was dealt last summer, Michael Pineda is a free agent, and Kenta Maeda will very likely miss the entire 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery.

Despite these factors, signing Ray to something close to five years and $130MM (MLBTR’s projection for the lefty’s next deal) would represent the second-largest contract in the Twins’ franchise history, and the type of financial outlay that Minnesota has traditionally preferred to avoid.  However, the Twins have been open to larger spending in other free agent pursuits in recent years, and swung such a notable deal with Josh Donaldson’s four-year, $92MM pact in the 2019-20 offseason.  Additionally, Minnesota just hit the nine-figure threshold by inking Byron Buxton to a seven-year extension that will be worth at least $100MM and perhaps significantly more if Buxton hits various incentive clauses.

Spending roughly $26MM on Ray in average annual value would boost the Twins’ 2022 payroll to around the $119MM mark, but considering the club finished the 2018 campaign spending around $131MM in player salaries, Minnesota would still have room to make other additions.  Plus, Miguel Sano, Taylor Rogers, and Tyler Duffey aren’t guaranteed beyond 2022, and Buxton and Randy Dobnak are the only Twins players on the books beyond the 2023 season.

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AL West Notes: Ray, Gray, Angels, Bryant, Mariners, Athletics

By Darragh McDonald | November 28, 2021 at 2:08pm CDT

Even after adding Noah Syndergaard, the Angels are still looking to further supplement their pitching staff. In recent days, they’ve been connected in rumors to Steven Matz, before he became a Cardinal, as well as Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer and Marcus Stroman. But Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes that Robbie Ray “remains atop their wish list.”

As Rosenthal notes, the Angels’ budget is a big unanswered question surrounding all of this. He lists their 2022 payroll as around $157MM. Adding someone like Ray would likely add more than $25MM to that total. (MLBTR predicted Ray would get a contract of $130MM over five years, an average annual value of $26MM.) That alone would put the Angels above their 2021 opening day payroll of $182MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, with still other roster issues to address. A budget increase would likely be required in order to facilitate a plan involving a contract of that size.

Another question is whether the Angels will deviate from their longstanding avoidance of committing to free agent starting pitchers. As recently explored by MLBTR’s Steve Adams, the Angels haven’t given a starting pitcher a contract longer than a single year since signing Joe Blanton way back in 2012. Ray, who recently turned 30 and won the AL Cy Young Award, would certainly require the Angels to wade into territory they haven’t been in for quite some time.

Another potential target is Jon Gray, as Rosenthal notes the Angels “had interest in Gray at the deadline.” Signing Gray would likely add less to the 2022 payroll than Ray, but probably still require the club to lay out a multi-year deal. MLBTR predicted Gray to get a contract of $56MM over four years, an AAV of $14MM.

More from the AL West…

  • Even after yesterday’s Adam Frazier trade, the Mariners could still add to their position player mix, with Kris Bryant apparently piquing their interest, per Robert Murray of FanSided. With Kyle Seager now a free agent, Seattle figures to have a new third baseman for the first time in quite a while. Bryant’s bat would certainly be welcome in a Seattle lineup that ranked 22nd in runs scored in 2021. Aside from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Bryant has had a wRC+ of at least 123 in each season of his career. In 2021, he hit 25 home runs and slashed .265/.353/.481, producing 3.6 fWAR in the process. However, Seattle may have to be patient with their interest in Bryant, as Murray relays that he’s not expected to sign before the transaction freeze that is reportedly going to be implemented after the CBA expires on Wednesday.
  • It is widely expected that the expiration of the current CBA on December 1 will lead to a transaction freeze, which has teams and agents scrambling to get business done before then. One thing getting pushed to the backburner is managerial hirings, as Ken Rosenthal reports that teams will still be able to hire managers and coaches during a lockout. (Same link as above.) That means that the two clubs currently without managers, the Mets and Athletics, will likely wait until next week to get serious about searching for new skippers.
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Latest On Mets’ Starting Pitching Targets

By Steve Adams | November 26, 2021 at 9:10pm CDT

9:10 pm: Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweeted this afternoon that the Mets seemed to be prioritizing Max Scherzer and Gausman above Ray at the top of the market, which could align with concerns about forfeiting a top 15 pick by signing a qualified free agent. Heyman notes that the Mets remain interested in Stroman, among others.

1:23 pm: Billy Eppler has only formally been the Mets’ general manager a bit more than a week, but he’s jumped right into the mix and is working to bolster the team’s starting staff. Eppler said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM this week that he’s “engaged in a ton of starting pitching right now” (Twitter link, with audio).

A spotlight was shined on the Mets’ interest in the rotation market this week when owner Steve Cohen voiced frustration with Steven Matz’s representatives after the lefty spurned his former Mets club to sign a four-year deal with the Cardinals. The Mets also attended Justin Verlander’s showcase earlier this offseason, though he has since re-signed with the Astros.

Starting pitching is an obvious need for the Mets, who’ve already watched Noah Syndergaard reject their qualifying offer for a slightly larger guarantee with the Angels. The Mets also don’t know whether free agent Marcus Stroman will return, and they’ve already announced that Carlos Carrasco underwent surgery to remove bone fragments from his pitching elbow. The current timeline has Carrasco returning early in Spring Training, but that issue, combined with David Peterson’s late-July foot surgery and the forearm issue that ended Jacob deGrom’s season in early July, only serves to further muddy the outlook.

The Mets are reportedly loath to sign a free agent who’d require them to surrender a draft pick, as doing so would mean forfeiting their second-highest pick — in this instance, the No. 14 overall selection in the draft. New York also has the No. 11 pick as compensation for not signing top pick Kumar Rocker in the 2021 draft. That might take Robbie Ray off the table, but he’s the lone remaining free agent starting pitcher tied to draft compensation. (The New York Post’s Mike Puma argued this week that even that steep penalty shouldn’t necessarily dissuade the Mets from pursuing Ray.) The remainder of free agents, including Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Jon Gray and Carlos Rodon, among others, can be signed absent of draft-pick considerations.

The trade market, of course, presents myriad other opportunities. One interesting note raised by Eppler — speaking more generally and not specifically with regard to the rotation — was the Mets’ ability and openness to take on a bad contract as a means of effectively purchasing a prospect from another club. Eppler was the Angels’ general manager when they traded 2019 first-round pick Will Wilson to the Giants in order to shed the remainder of Zack Cozart’s contract while dealing with payroll limitations from his prior ownership. Now, Eppler suggests he could be on the opposite side of such a transaction.

“There are avenues to go grab contracts elsewhere and tie prospects to them,” said Eppler. “Some teams are still doing that — most teams are not — but I think the openness and willingness to be able to say, ’We’re going to spend a lot on this player, the contract might be a touch underwater, but we’re going to get this prospect back.’ Exploring those, and trying to push those through a little more — there’s an openness to do that here.”

There are various permutations of that arrangement. The Wilson/Cozart deal, in its simplest form, came down to the Giants effectively purchasing a prospect from the Eppler’s Angels. However, it’s also fairly common for teams to take on an underwater contract when acquiring a more desirable player, providing some salary relief in exchange for surrendering less in terms of prospect capital.

For instance, if the Mets were to make a strong push for one of the Athletics’ available starters (e.g. Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt), offering to take on the remaining $8.25MM owed to outfielder Stephen Piscotty could persuade the A’s to settle for a lesser return. To be clear, that’s just one example — and there’s no indication the A’s are open to that specific scenario. But, that type of arrangement is another in which Eppler could leverage the Mets’ financial might in trade talks.

Whichever route the Mets ultimately take, some kind of upgrade seems inevitable. Their current rotation projects to include deGrom, Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Tylor Megill and Peterson. It’s not at all a poor quintet if all are healthy, but for a big-market club with postseason aspirations, an additional veteran (or two) to add some dependable innings behind deGrom is a logical pursuit.

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