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Roki Sasaki

MLB Conducted Investigation Prior To Roki Sasaki’s Posting

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Prior to the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball officially posting right-hander Roki Sasaki for major league clubs last month, Major League Baseball conducted an investigation before authorizing Sasaki’s posting. Jack Harris of The Los Angeles Times reported this afternoon that MLB’s investigation was in order to “ensure the protocol agreement had been followed” and involved interviews with multiple parties. A report from Fabian Ardaya, Dennis Lin, Patrick Mooney, Ken Rosenthal, and Will Sammon of The Athletic added more details this evening, noting that the primary focus of the league’s probe was not Sasaki himself but rather the Marines. Both reports emphasize that the league found nothing that substantiated rumors of an illegal arrangement taking place.

That the league’s investigation focused on the Marines may seem somewhat surprising, but The Athletic’s report notes that the current posting system limits the payout for the Marines to just 25% of Sasaki’s total bonus. That’s a weak financial incentive for a club parting ways with its star player and represents not only a step back from the large posting fees players like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Seiya Suzuki have garnered for their clubs in recent years but also the $20MM posting fee the Nippon Ham Fighters were able to charge in exchange for Shohei Ohtani’s services when he signed with the Angels as an international amateur under the previous posting system back in December 2017. That relative lack of financial compensation for Sasaki’s services raised concerns among league officials for the potential for an under-the-table payment.

While MLB’s investigation found no wrongdoing by any party, speculation around the game of the possibility of an handshake agreement between Sasaki and the Dodgers grew significant enough to draw a strong denial from agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, who represents the right-handed phenom. As described in The Athletic’s report, clubs around the game felt uncertain about Sasaki’s goals throughout his posting process as teams like the Mariners and Red Sox failed to land a meeting with the 23-year-old while large market teams like the Cubs, Yankees, and Mets did in spite of suggestions that he may prefer to avoid the spotlight.

Regardless of that confusion, it became clear earlier this week that Sasaki had narrowed things down to three finalists: the Dodgers, Padres, and Blue Jays, each of whom then visited with Sasaki in their respective cities and began to prepare their offers. According to The Athletic’s report, San Diego told Sasaki’s camp that they would be willing to trade to maximize their bonus pool and offer Sasaki the entirety of those funds while the Dodgers lined up a trade with the Phillies to add additional bonus pool money in the event that they landed Sasaki. The Blue Jays were especially aggressive in their pursuit of Sasaki, however.

While all three clubs were clearly willing to add significant bonus pool dollars in order to land Sasaki, Toronto acquired $2MM in international bonus pool space from the Guardians by taking on the majority of the money owed to center fielder Myles Straw over the next two years despite not actually having a deal in place with the right-hander. The impetus behind that trade utlimately did not work out for Toronto as Sasaki wound up choosing Los Angeles. Despit that, The Athletic’s report indicates that the Blue Jays believe Straw could be a worthwhile addition in his own right and that the money they took on to land him won’t be prohibitive as they continue to look for ways to upgrade their roster. Notably, center fielder Daulton Varsho is not expected to be ready for Opening Day and the addition of Straw could give the club some depth at the position while Varsho recovers.

Blue Jays Still Looking For Starting Pitching

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After missing out on Roki Sasaki, the Blue Jays “remain involved in” the starting pitching market, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes.  While Toronto has been more primarily linked to hitters this winter, the Jays have also been actively considering several starters, including such notable names as Sasaki, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell, Luis Severino, Nick Pivetta, and Jack Flaherty.

Of that group, only Pivetta and Flaherty remained unsigned, as all of the other names signed with other teams.  The near-misses on Sasaki and Burnes in particular have only added to what has been a frustrating 14 months for the Blue Jays, who have continually come up on short on several high-profile free agent pursuits in the last two offseasons.

The Jays’ current starting five consists of Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis, and Yariel Rodriguez.  This group (and Yusei Kikuchi, who traded to the Astros at the deadline) combined to post roughly middle-of-the-pack numbers in comparison to other rotations around the league, and the starting staff was in many ways Toronto’s most consistent strength given the club’s lackluster lineup and bullpen.  Alek Manoah also pitched reasonably well in five starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he is aiming to be back in the rotation by August.  Adding another starter, of course, would only deepen and help solidify this group.  Bringing a new starter into the rotation would push Rodriguez into relief duty, thus addressing another need by bringing another quality arm into the bullpen mix.

The question remains, however, whether the Blue Jays are looking to supplement this group with more of a frontline type of pitcher like Flaherty, or if they’re looking at more of a back-end hurler for what is technically a fifth starter’s role on paper.  The former would require another significant investment in a starting pitcher, on the heels of Berrios’ hefty extension, big free agent deals for Gausman and Bassitt, plus the $32MM Toronto spent to sign Rodriguez a year ago.

Between their big offers to Burnes and Juan Soto, the Jays front office clearly has some money available to spend, even though Toronto already has around $218MM on the books for 2025 and a luxury-tax number of $245MM (estimates courtesy of RosterResource).  What remains unclear is whether or not GM Ross Atkins was given the green light to stretch the budget in general, or just for special cases like Soto or Burnes.  There’s also the fact that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is looking for a mega-contract of his own as he approaches free agency, and there is reportedly a sizable gap between the Jays and the star first baseman in extension talks.

Flaherty is reportedly open to a shorter-term contract with opt-outs, though such a deal would still require a sizable average annual value.  Pivetta is surely also looking for a significant salary, plus he would also cost the Blue Jays $500K in int’l pool money and the team’s second-highest pick in the 2025 draft since Pivetta rejected Boston’s qualifying offer.  Pivoting away from these bigger names in the pitching market or perhaps obtaining a starter in a trade might be more of a feasible path for the Jays if they instead opted to spend more heavily in offense, such as rumored targets Anthony Santander or Pete Alonso.

In terms of other expenditures this offseason, the Blue Jays also signed Jeff Hoffman to a three-year, $33MM deal, and took on the remaining $97.5MM on Andres Gimenez’s contract after acquiring the second baseman from the Guardians.  Another $11MM was also taken on in the form of Myles Straw’s contract in yesterday’s trade with Cleveland for $2MM in international bonus pool space, which already looks like a misstep since that $2MM was earmarked for the failed bid for Sasaki.  A rival executive described the Straw trade in pretty blunt terms to Nicholson-Smith, calling the deal as a “masterclass [for Cleveland] to dump off so much money,” as “the Guardians knew [the Jays] were desperate.”

It was another tough blow to a Jays franchise that is facing as much pressure to win as any in baseball, given 2024’s disappointing 74-88 record and the looming free agency of Guerrero and Bo Bichette next winter.  Several holes and unanswered questions remain on the roster, and while there is still plenty of time in the offseason to make moves, Atkins’ efforts won’t be helped by the increased public perception that the Jays “need” to do something big.  Such a perception gives other front offices leverages in trade talks with the Jays, and player agents leverage in contract negotiations.

Blue Jays Acquire Myles Straw, International Bonus Pool Space From Guardians

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The Blue Jays announced that they have acquired outfielder Myles Straw, cash, and some 2025 international bonus pool space from the Guardians, while Cleveland receives a player to be named later or cash in return. Toronto will be receiving $2MM of international pool space, while the team will take on $11MM of the $14.75MM remaining on Straw’s contract through the 2026 season. The Guards will pay the Jays $1MM in 2025, $1MM in 2026, and then $1.75MM at the end of the 2026 season, likely earmarked to cover the $1.75MM buyout of Straw’s $8MM club option for the 2027 season.

With the international pool space, it’s fair to wonder about the Jays and their connection to Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki. He has to choose his next club in less than a week and is subject to the international bonus pool signing rules. It has been reported that the Jays are one of three finalists for his services, alongside the Dodgers and Padres. Nicholson-Smith and Davidi both caution that this deal does not mean Sasaki has made a decision, rather that the Jays are being prepared for the possibility of Sasaki choosing them. It’s possible that the Padres view themselves as now out of the running, as they have reportedly started finalizing deals with other international amateurs, something they had put on hold while waiting for more info.

Unlike most free agents, Sasaki isn’t going to sign with the club that can offer him the most money. Since he is coming over to North America prior to his 25th birthday, having recently turned 23, he is considered an amateur under MLB’s rules. As such, he is subject to the league’s bonus pool system. Under this system, each team gets a set amount of money to spend on international amateurs each year. As laid out by Ben Badler of Baseball America, the 2025 pools are each between $5-8MM. Broadly speaking, the smaller-market clubs get a bit more than the bigger clubs. A club can also lower its pool amount by signing a player that rejected a qualifying offer.

Teams can trade their bonus pool space with each other, in increments of $250K, but a team can’t increase its initial allotment by more than 60%. As such, Sasaki won’t be able to sign for more than a few million bucks. There will also be a posting fee owed to the Chiba Lotte Marines, his Nippon Professional Baseball club, though that will also be minimal. If money were his primary motivation, he likely would stayed in Japan until he turned 25. That’s what Yoshinobu Yamamoto did, which allowed him to secure a $325MM deal from the Dodgers.

Sasaki is therefore presumably choosing his next clubs based on other factors. He and his agent Joel Wolfe have been fairly cagey about what those factors might be, leaving baseball fans to speculate. It has been suggested that geography, a team’s pitching development reputation and/or long-term competitive outlook are possible factors, though those are mostly guesses.

Though money won’t be the main factor, it’s possible that Sasaki and his reps would like a large bonus, simply out of respect and as a reflection of his status. Sasaki is far more coveted than even the top international amateurs from any other year. The vast majority of signees in the pool system are 16-year-olds from Latin America who are years away from contributing and come with the standard uncertainties that are present with even the best prospects. The best of those guys can sometimes get bonuses of $5MM or more. The Mets gave Elian Peña $5MM this week, the top bonus for an international signing of this year so far.

Sasaki, on the other hand, is viewed as a plug-and-play ace. He already has four years of experience in Japan, having posted a 2.10 earned run average in that time. Though he doesn’t have the ability to ask for Yamamoto money, perhaps he and his reps want to at least get to something in the $6-10MM range so that he at least gets the symbolic victory of being the top bonus of his class.

The Jays started with a pool of $6,261,600. The Dodgers had their pool dropped by $1MM for signing Shohei Ohtani, since he rejected a qualifying offer and they were a competitive balance tax payor in 2023, winding up at $5,146,200. Since the Jays are allowed to increase their pool by 60%, they can theoretically get that number as high as $10,018,560. This deal gets them up to $8,261,600.

In a normal year, all 30 MLB clubs would announced most of their signings on the first day of the international signing period on January 15. That’s because most of these bonuses have been negotiated years in advance. However, Sasaki’s presence has thrown a wrench into the normal operation of things. The Jays, Dodgers and Padres have reportedly been holding off on finalizing their international signings as they await Sasaki’s decision. His posting window closes January 23, so resolution will have to come soon. As mentioned, the Padres are reportedly going to start finalizing some of their international agreements. That doesn’t mean they are definitely out on Sasaki but is obviously a different approach to what the Jays are doing now.

Time will tell whether this extra pool space can help the Jays at all in signing Sasaki, but it suggests they still view it as a possibility. If Sasaki ends up signing elsewhere, they could perhaps try to trade some of that pool space later or use it in a different way. The Sasaki situation has also thrown a few other things into disarray, as a few prospects that were committed to the Dodgers ultimately pivoted to sign elsewhere, not wanting to wait around. Darell Morel, Oscar Patiño and Teilon Serrano each walked away from the Dodgers to sign with the Pirates, White Sox and Twins, respectively. As this game of musical chairs plays out, it’s possible that there will be some interesting ways to use pool space, even without Sasaki.

To get that extra pool space, the Jays are taking a dead-money contract off the Guardians’ hands. Straw signed a five-year, $25MM extension with the Guardians in April 2022 that covered the 2022-27 seasons, plus the $8MM club option for 2027 and an $8.5MM club option ($500K buyout) for 2028.

These options are almost sure to be declined since Straw’s performance dropped up almost immediately after he signed the extension. An elite defender and runner, Straw had passable offense for a while but fell off a cliff. Through the end of 2021, he had a .265/.343/.341 batting line and 94 wRC+. But in the past three years, that line has been a dismal .229/.295/.284, which translates to a 67 wRC+. He also hit .240/.321/.329 in Triple-A last year for a wRC+ of 72.

His previous level of offense was still subpar but it made him a useful player when combined with his glovework and baserunning. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 3.0 wins above replacement in 2021, for instance. But the dropoff at the plate made Straw unrosterable, so the Guardians have outrighted him off their 40-man multiple times.

Since Straw has more than three years of service time, he can reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. But since his service clock is still short of five years, heading to the open market would mean forfeiting what’s left of his contract. He wasn’t on their roster at the time of the trade and therefore won’t have a spot with the Jays.

Though it’s mostly a salary dump, it’s possible the Jays could envision a path to Straw helping their big league team. Daulton Varsho is the club’s primary center fielder but he is recovering from shoulder surgery and might miss Opening Day. If that comes to pass, it’s possible Straw could help give the Jays a glove-first cover option until Varsho is ready, perhaps in a fourth outfielder role. Straw’s service time count is currently at four years and 125 days. A new “year” rolls over at 172 days, meaning Straw is 47 shy of the five-year mark. That makes it possible for the Jays to roster Straw for a few weeks and send him back off the roster again, knowing that he will clear waivers and accept an outright assignment.

For the Guardians, this is the second time this offseason that they have dumped a notable contract on the Jays. Just over a month ago, the Guards sent Andrés Giménez and Nick Sandlin to Toronto in exchange for Spencer Horwitz and Nick Mitchell, with Horwitz later flipped to the Pirates. Giménez is still guaranteed $97.5MM over the five years left on his extension.

Between Giménez and Straw, the Guards have sent $113MM of future payroll commitments north of the border. They did lose a useful player in Giménez but likely feel they have plenty of internal infield options to make up for his absence. They also lost Sandlin but they had the best bullpen in the league in 2024 and should have a strong relief corps without him. Straw wasn’t really in their plans. In short, they probably feel like the roster isn’t much worse, with now a great change in their financial picture.

Sacrificing $2MM of pool space will limit what they can do in that arena, but it’s theoretically possible that they can make up for that somewhat with the overall improvement in their ability to spend. Looking at the RosterResource page, they now have very few commitments apart from the José Ramírez deal.

Whether they will actually use that to upgrade the major league team or not is a fair question. The club’s broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group, now known as Main Street Sports, has fallen apart. The Guards are now set to go into 2025 with MLB handling their broadcasts, which will almost certainly lead to less revenue coming in. On the other hand, they just engineered a surprise division win in 2024 and could have put some extra playoff revenue in the bank. RosterResource currently projects them for a payroll of about $91MM this year, which is a bit below the $98MM Opening Day figure that Cot’s Baseball Contracts gave them a year ago.

For the Jays, the Straw deal nudges their payroll up but only slightly. They reportedly made a strong offer to Corbin Burnes a few weeks ago, which was likely north of $30MM annually. He ultimately signed with the Diamondbacks for $210MM over six years, an average annual value of $35MM, though there are deferrals that knock those number down in terms of net present value. Still, the Jays were probably at least in that range. They have since added Jeff Hoffman, a three-year, $33MM deal with an AAV of $11MM. Straw’s deal will add another few million but perhaps there’s still some powder dry. The club has been tied to most of the top free agents still available, including Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Jack Flaherty, Anthony Santander and Nick Pivetta.

Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi (multiple links) reported that the Blue Jays were getting $2MM in pool space, and the $3.75MM figure contributed by the Guardians to Straw’s salary.  The Athletic’s Zack Meisel had the breakdown of how the $3.75MM would be allotted over the course of Straw’s remaining contract.

Padres To Sign Top International Prospects Jhoan De La Cruz, Carlos Alvarez

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The Padres are in the process of finalizing signings of two top international prospects out of the Dominican Republic, lefty Carlos Alvarez and shortstop Jhoan De La Cruz, per reports from Will Sammon of The Athletic and Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com. Alvarez will receive a signing bonus worth around $1MM, per Romero. De La Cruz’s bonus isn’t yet known, but Romero previously suggested he and the Padres had an agreement in the $2MM range. Baseball America’s Ben Badler had previously pegged De La Cruz between $1MM and $1.5MM. The broader takeaway here, however, is Romero tweeting that multiple sources have indicated the Padres believe they’re now out of the running for star Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki.

Sammon adds that the Alvarez had been originally committed to the Padres but has since been exploring other opportunities in the wake of their emergence as a Sasaki finalist. He’ll now indeed sign in San Diego, which supports the notion that a signing of Sasaki is no longer in the cards for the Padres.

San Diego was one of three finalists for Sasaki, alongside the Dodgers and Blue Jays. There’s no indication that Sasaki has made a final decision yet. The Dodgers were said to be exploring trades to add extra space to their MLB-low $5.146MM international bonus pool. The Jays and Padres have a slightly larger pool, both landing at $6.262MM, though San Diego was also reportedly looking into trades to bolster their maximum potential bonus.

Agent Joel Wolfe has previously suggested, however, that Sasaki’s decision won’t simply come down to who offers the largest bonus. After all, if maxing out his earnings were Sasaki’s top priority, he could’ve waited two more years until he was 25 and thus a “professional” rather than an “amateur” under MLB’s international free agent structure. That’s the route Yoshinobu Yamamoto chose, and it resulted in a record $325MM contract with the Dodgers for the 25-year-old hurler.

Until Sasaki formally puts pen to paper with another team, a sliver of hope for Friars fans remains, but this morning’s reports are bleak with regard to their chances on Sasaki. De La Cruz and Alvarez, however, will still be additions of note to the lower levels of San Diego’s system. MLB.com ranks them as the No. 21 and No. 39 prospects in this year’s class. Badler writes that De La Cruz doesn’t have one standout tool but has average or better tools across the board, with present gap power and the physical frame (5’11”, 170 pounds) and defensive tools necessary to stick at shortstop long-term.

Alvarez turned 17 in November but is already 6’5″ tall and already hitting 93 mph with his heater, per Badler. MLB.com’s report on him notes that he’s a former outfielder, meaning his arm is fresher than many teenaged pitching prospects. That he’s already flashing better-than-average command and secondary pitches despite being relatively new to the mound is an encouraging sign as well.

Dodgers, Padres Looking Into Trading For International Bonus Pool Funds

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10:10PM: The Padres are also looking to trade for more int’l signing pool space, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes (multiple links).  More teams than just the Sasaki suitors are also exploring such trades, as an executive tells Feinsand that “other teams are recognizing opportunities” to be aggressive in the international market.

9:07PM: The 23-year-old Roki Sasaki is considered an international free agent due to his age, as league rules dictate, and thus his impending arrival to the big leagues has brought extra attention to the int’l free agent acquisition process, which officially began today with the opening of the signing window.  The race to sign Sasaki isn’t technically a bidding war since the money on offer is limited by the bonus pool structure, and Sasaki’s willingness to make the jump to the majors so early in his career indicates that salary isn’t his chief priority.

Nevertheless, that doesn’t mean the three teams reportedly remaining in the hunt for Sasaki won’t try to add a few extra dollars to their offers.  Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that the Dodgers have engaged multiple teams in “exploratory” discussions about trading for extra money from their bonus pools, though there doesn’t appear to be any indication that any deals are close.

Clubs are permitted to trade from their bonus pools in increments of $250K, and teams are allowed to add to their pre-existing pools by as much as 60 percent of their original number.  The Dodgers’ 2025 pool was reduced by $1MM due to their signing of Shohei Ohtani last winter, as Ohtani rejected the Angels’ qualifying offer and the Dodgers were a luxury-tax paying team in 2023, which left Los Angeles with $5,146,200 to work with for this year’s international class.

This amount is tied with the Giants for the lowest pool of any team.  The Blue Jays and Padres (the other Sasaki finalists) have a pool size of $6,261,600, giving them a bit extra to work with in terms of paying Sasaki, or spending on other int’l talents should Sasaki sign elsewhere.  Should all three teams trade for the maximum amount of extra pool space, the Dodgers would have approximately $8,223,920 to offer Sasaki, while Toronto and San Diego could offer him $10,018,560.

As noted earlier, Sasaki likely isn’t going to base his decision on what will ultimately end up being pretty similar offers from his three suitors.  This could be why the Dodgers are apparently not yet pushing too hard to add to their pool space, as Sasaki might end up signing elsewhere anyway.  Harris also notes that for the Dodgers (and presumably the Padres and Blue Jays), there’s a lack of leverage in such trade talks, as rival teams know full well that int’l bonus money is of particular importance as the clock ticks down towards January 23 and the close of Sasaki’s posting window.

International pool space is usually not considered a hugely valuable trade asset in general, though naturally teams trying to amass extra money to complete a signing may think otherwise.  Earlier today, we saw the Giants acquire extra pool money in a pair of trades, as Blake Sabol was sent to the Red Sox and Will Kempner was dealt to the Marlins.  These additional funds helped San Francisco boost its $5,146,200 figure, and probably helped the team land its top signing — highly-touted Dominican shortstop prospect Josuar De Jesus Gonzalez, who got a bonus of $2,997,500.

The other wrinkle on the trade front is that teams with bonus space to spare might want to keep that money themselves for more signings, rather than deal it away.  The team that lands Sasaki will have to walk away from its pre-existing handshake agreements with most or all members of its 2025 international signing class, so several other interesting prospects could soon be entering the market.  Even the possibility that these unofficial agreements might not be honored has cost the Dodgers at least three prospects already, so the two teams who don’t sign Sasaki might both miss out on the pitcher and have to deal with a reduced group of int’l prospects if some of the players leave in advance.

Dodgers To Have Another Meeting With Roki Sasaki

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Right-hander Roki Sasaki will need to pick his next team in the next few days and has reportedly narrowed his choice to the Blue Jays, Padres and Dodgers. He was recently in Toronto and San Diego to meet with those clubs and will now be meeting with the Dodgers today, per a report from Fabian Ardaya and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

This tracks with the plan previously laid out by Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe at the Winter Meetings back in December. Wasserman, Wolfe’s agency, initially hosted several clubs for meetings at the company’s Los Angeles headquarters. After that, the plan was for Sasaki to head home to Japan for the holidays, then visit some of his top choices in their home cities. One of the notable differences with the second round of meetings is that clubs have been permitted to bring players.

Sasaki’s decision is arguably the most impactful one of the offseason. He is considered to be capable of stepping right into a big league rotation, possibly delivering ace-level performance. He has a 2.10 earned run average in his Nippon Professional Baseball career, striking out 32.7% of batters faced. Such a player would normally require a massive financial investment but Sasaki will sign for a just a few million bucks.

Since he is coming to North America at the age of 23, Sasaki is considered an amateur by MLB’s rules, which require a player to be 25 years old with six professional seasons of experience to be considered a professional. That means he is subject to the international bonus pool system, under which each team gets about $5-8MM annually to spend on such players. A team can trade for more pool space but can’t increase it’s initial allotment by more than 60%. The signing team will also owe a posting fee to the Chiba Lotte Marines, though the size of that fee is calculated based on the size of the contract, so it will also be small.

It’s a decision that therefore will have massive ramifications for years to come. It’s unknown what criteria Sasaki will be using to pick his next team, since money seemingly won’t be a big factor, so the baseball world has been left to mostly guess about his priorities.

The Dodgers have been seen as a frontrunner for a long time, due to various reasons. Japanese players often prefer to be on the West Coast, in part due to its relative proximity compared to East Coast clubs. The Dodgers are also a very successful franchise, having a postseason run going back more than a decade now and a World Series victory just a few months ago. They also have other Japanese players on the roster in Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, which could be a draw for Sasaki.

On the flipside, there are arguments against the Dodgers being his next team. It’s possible that Sasaki might prefer to be away from the big spotlight of Los Angeles. Wolfe has mentioned that Sasaki wasn’t always fairly treated by the Japanese media and might benefit from being in a smaller market. It’s also theoretically possible that Sasaki could find more endorsement deals on a team other than the Dodgers, where he wouldn’t be in the shadow of Ohtani and Yamamoto. The Dodgers also have a long list of pitchers who have succumbed to significant injuries in recent years, which could perhaps give Sasaki pause.

Those are mostly speculative reasons for or against Sasaki signing with the Dodgers. As mentioned, it’s unknown how or why he will make his decision and the Dodgers are still considered the favorites by many in the baseball world. That includes MLBTR readers, as today’s poll about his landing spot has the Dodgers well ahead of the Padres and Blue Jays.

Subjectively, the Dodgers need Sasaki less than the other two finalists. The Padres have a significant budget crunch and haven’t made any moves of significance this winter, perhaps waiting to see if they can land Sasaki before deciding next steps. The Jays are coming off a disappointing season, have several key players nearing free agency and have seemingly been the runner-up on every notable free agent in recent years. The Dodgers, as mentioned, have a lot of good things going for them as a franchise.

The big decision will be known relatively soon, one way or another. Sasaki has to sign by the end of his posting window, which closes on January 23. He could officially sign as soon as January 15, when the new international signing period opens. It’s also possible that news of his decision will be reported before he actually puts pen to paper, so the bomb could potentially drop at any time.

Poll: Where Will Roki Sasaki Sign?

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The 2025 international amateur signing period begins tomorrow. While that milestone is a bit of a footnote for many fans in the offseason calendar, this year is different thanks to the presence of 23-year-old phenom Roki Sasaki. Sasaki was posted for major league clubs by Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chiba Lotte Marines just after the Winter Meetings last month. As an NPB player coming to the majors before the age of 25, he’s considered an amateur despite his dominance over the course of four seasons in Japan.

The fact that Sasaki is coming to the majors through the system in place for international amateurs created a wide-open race for his services on paper. International amateurs can only sign minor league deals that are accompanied by signing bonuses from each team’s hard-capped international bonus pools. As such, clubs without substantial payrolls couldn’t be outbid by their large-market counterparts. More than 20 teams reportedly checked in with Sasaki when he was posted last month. He met with a number of teams in Los Angeles (where his agents at Wasserman are headquartered) before the holidays, including the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Rangers, and Cubs. Now, with just over a week left in Sasaki’s posting window, a trio of finalists has emerged: the Dodgers, Padres, and Blue Jays.

That the Dodgers are a finalist for Sasaki’s services should surprise no one. After all, Sasaki is a player who wanted to compete at the highest level badly enough to come over to the major leagues early and in doing so chose to forfeit the opportunity to land a nine-figure deal. Given that competitiveness, joining the reigning World Series champions who haven’t missed the postseason since 2011 figures to hold obvious appeal. Aside from that, the Dodgers are perhaps the largest international brand in the sport, employing former NPB and KBO stars like Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and, now, Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim. That global brand (and the potential for international endorsements that comes with it) could hold plenty of appeal for Sasaki given the fact that he’ll be signing a minor league contract.

All of that has made the Dodgers such an obvious fit for Sasaki’s services to many around the game that his agent, Joel Wolfe, felt compelled earlier this winter to deny rumors of a “handshake” deal with the Dodgers before Sasaki’s posting period had even begun. Despite this air of inevitability surrounding the Dodgers and Sasaki in the eyes of some fans and media members, however, there are two other finalists that each can offer a legitimate case for Sasaki’s services in their own right.

The Padres have received nearly as much attention as a likely co-favorite. Multiple reports have suggested that Sasaki has a strong relationship with veteran right-hander Yu Darvish, who has four seasons left on his deal in San Diego and would as such be available to serve as a mentor to Sasaki and guide him through his transition to the big leagues. San Diego, much like Los Angeles, also could benefit from being on the west coast with the associated mild climate and travel-related benefits that often appeal to NPB players. The Padres can also offer more money to Sasaki than the Dodgers; their bonus pool is $6,261,600 this year as compared to L.A.’s pool of just $5,146,200, though either club could trade for more bonus pool money in order to put together a more tempting offer for Sasaki.

Compared to the Dodgers and Padres, the Blue Jays appear to be a dark horse candidate. A connection between Sasaki and the club was first made just yesterday, when reporting surfaced that Sasaki had met with the club in Toronto. The Blue Jays have long sought to court top talents in free agency, including a pursuit of Ohtani last winter where they were generally acknowledged to have finished as the runner-up for the MVP’s services. Though the Blue Jays aren’t as well set-up for success as the Dodgers and Padres, having finished fifth in a crowded AL East just last year, Toronto could offer Sasaki the opportunity to be the face of the franchise in a way that more star-studded teams in L.A. and San Diego cannot — particularly if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ultimately signs elsewhere in free agency next winter. What’s more, the Blue Jays have the same $6,261,600 bonus pool the Padres have and therefore could outbid the Dodgers financially.

With just over a week left until the January 23 deadline by which Sasaki has to make a decision, where do MLBTR readers believe he’ll land? Will he hitch his wagon to the reigning World Series champs in Los Angeles? Will he join his longtime friend and mentor Darvish in San Diego? Or will he surprise the baseball world and opt to make a name for himself in Toronto? Have your say in the poll below:

Dodgers, Padres, Blue Jays Reportedly Finalists For Roki Sasaki

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The Roki Sasaki frenzy is nearing its completion. Several teams have reportedly been told that they won’t be signing the right-hander and now Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays are the three finalists. The Cubs are no longer in the running, according to Mike Rodriguez, with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic adding that the Cubs have been informed of their status.

It seems that today was the day that Sasaki and his reps started informing teams that had been eliminated from the running. Earlier today, various reports indicated that the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Rangers and Diamondbacks would not be signing Sasaki. The Mariners were vaguely connected to Sasaki at times and hadn’t been expressly eliminated, but it seems they didn’t make it to the podium as one of the top three.

Sasaki’s decision has been one of the biggest wild cards hanging over the offseason. Since he’s coming over to the big leagues before his 25th birthday, he’s considered an amateur under MLB rules and is therefore subject to the international bonus pool system. As such, no club could be initially ruled out just based on economics, as is usually the case with other free agents.

Each team gets an annual pool of money that they are allowed to spend on international amateurs. This year’s pools are in the $5-8MM range, with the smaller-market clubs mostly having the slightly larger ones. Teams can trade for more pool space but they can’t increase their initial allotment by more than 60%. A posting fee will also be owed to the Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki’s former club in Japan, though that will only add 20% of the bonus. As such, each team has roughly the same ability to pay Sasaki a few million bucks.

Sasaki is likely therefore to decide based on factors beyond money. After all, if money was his top priority, he probably would have waited until he turned 25. That’s what Yoshinobu Yamamoto did, which led to a $325MM deal from the Dodgers.

No one can say for sure what Sasaki is prioritizing, though the Dodgers and Padres have been seen as logical suitors for a while now. Both clubs are on the West Coast, which is closer to Japan, perhaps a favorable factor when considering the flights for Sasaki and his family members. The Dodgers also have a strong reputation as a whole, having made the postseason in each year going back to 2013, with a fresh World Series victory in 2024. The Padres don’t have quite the same track record of success but have been good in recent years.

Both clubs also have Japanese players on the roster, with the Dodgers having Yamamoto and Ohtani, while the Padres have Yu Darvish. Some reports have suggested Sasaki and Darvish have an especially close relationship.

The Jays have been floated as a landing spot for Sasaki far less than the Dodgers or Padres, which is sensible. They are not on the West Coast. They had a strong run of contention from 2020 to 2023 but are coming off a down season. They had Yusei Kikuchi until last year’s trade deadline but don’t currently have a Japanese player on the roster.

In April of 2023, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that “Some Japanese players are uncomfortable being major-league teammates with other Japanese players because of the importance of seniority in Japan’s hierarchical culture, major-league executives and agents say.” That piece was examining the possibility of Ohtani singing with the Mets when they already had Kodai Senga on the roster. Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe has downplayed the importance of a club having Japanese players on its roster, either positively or negatively. “That was never a topic of discussion,” Wolfe said last month, per Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.

It’s possible that Sasaki will be attracted to playing in another country for other reasons. Wolfe has suggested that the Japanese media was often unkind to Sasaki, which could perhaps make it preferable for him to be in a smaller market. Toronto isn’t exactly a small market but it would be further away from the American media spotlight. The Blue Jays are also owned by Rogers Communications, the media company that broadcasts the club’s games on television and radio. Perhaps that would allow the Jays to promise Sasaki a more guarded environment in terms of media access. Toronto is also a city with a reputation for its diversity and relatively low crime rates.

Those are all speculative arguments, but the same could be said about the arguments for Sasaki preferring Los Angeles or San Diego. Sasaki and Wolfe have given very few clues about what will be used to make the final decision, leaving the baseball world to mostly guess.

Whatever he decides will likely have ripple effects into the rest of the offseason. The Padres have a tight budget and needs all over their roster. Trading Dylan Cease is reportedly one potential solution to their situation, which would perhaps become more likely if they sign Sasaki. The Dodgers already have lots of rotation options and might consider a trade of their own if they add Sasaki. That’s perhaps less likely with the Jays, who have been trying to add a starting pitcher all winter without success thus far.

There will also be domino effects elsewhere. Whichever team signs Sasaki will likely have to walk away from verbal commitments to teenagers in Latin America, as they will need to redirect bonus money to Sasaki. That will lead to those players then looking for other clubs. Some of this has seemingly already started to happen, as the Pirates are reportedly going to sign Darell Morel, a Dominican shortstop that had previously been committed to the Dodgers.

It won’t take long for all of these knock-on effects to really ramp up. Sasaki’s posting window closes on January 23, meaning resolution will be coming in less than a week. He can’t officially sign until January 15, when the new international signing period begins, though it’s possible an agreement could be reported before then.

Roki Sasaki Reportedly Informs Several Teams They Are Out Of Running

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3:10pm: The Rangers have also been informed that they are out of the running, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The Diamondbacks never got a meeting with Sasaki and won’t be the destination either, per John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix.

2:56pm: The Mets have also been informed that they are out of the running, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post.

2:35pm: The Yankees have been told that right-hander Roki Sasaki will not be signing with them, reports Jack Curry of Yes Network. That’s the second team that is reportedly out, with the Giants having also been told that they won’t be Sasaki’s destination. Andy Martino of SNY adds that the Mets aren’t expected to sign him either, though it’s unclear if they have been given a clear denial like the Giants and Yankees. As for teams that are still in the mix, Sasaki reportedly met with the Padres in San Diego recently, per a report from Dennis Lin, Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. This was after his recent meeting with the Blue Jays in Toronto.

Sasaki has been on the radar of MLB clubs for years, but his situation became very interesting once it became clear that he would be coming over to North America this winter. Since he is not yet 25 years old, he is considered an amateur under MLB’s international signing rules. That makes a massive difference in his earning power and opens him up to potentially sign with any club.

Per the international bonus pool system, each club has a limit on how much signing bonus money they can give to international amateurs, with this year’s pools ranging from $5-8MM. Broadly speaking, the large-market clubs have the smaller pools and vice versa. Teams can trade for more pool money but can’t add more than 60% of their initial pool allotment.

The Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki’s Nippon Professional Baseball club, will also be owed a posting fee. However, the value of that fee will be a percentage of his signing bonus and won’t be a large number either. Per the NPB posting rules, the fee is 20% of a deal’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending. Since Sasaki will be capped by the pool system, his deal will lead to a modest bonus, with the posting fee adding 20%.

Had Sasaki waited until he turned 25, he would have been considered a professional and could have signed a deal for any amount. That’s the route Yoshinobu Yamamoto took, eventually securing a $325MM deal from the Dodgers.

It can be debated as to who is the better pitcher between Yamamoto and Sasaki, but the point is that there’s tremendous upside in getting Sasaki aboard for such a small investment. Teams that normally don’t sign top free agents can become theoretical fits, while the larger clubs have big payrolls and competitive balance tax concerns, making them very interested as well.

By coming to North America now, Sasaki has seemingly illustrated that maximizing his short-term earnings is not his top priority. Since each club has roughly the same ability to offer him a bonus now, he should be focused on non-financial criteria for making his decision. It could come down to geography, a club’s reputation developing pitching or perhaps a team’s long-term competitive outlook. His agent, Joel Wolfe, said the plan was for teams to make pitches before the holidays. Sasaki would then travel to visit the home cities of certain clubs after the holidays.

A decision needs to come soon. Sasaki can’t officially sign until January 15 when the new pool year starts, but he also has to be signed by January 23, when his posting window closes. Now that there’s only a handful of days left, it seems he is narrowing the field.

The Yankees and Mets both reportedly met with Sasaki in December but it seems that he won’t be coming to New York to join either club. Both teams already have plenty of rotation options, though they surely would have welcomed the problem of adding Sasaki into the mix and further crowding things. The Yankees are already feel good enough about their pitching depth that they are reportedly shopping Marcus Stroman.

Perhaps signing Sasaki wouldn’t have added too much to the urgency to trade Stroman. MLB teams often use six-man rotations when folding in a Japanese pitcher, as the NPB usually sees starters throw once a week as opposed to the five-day rotation in North America. It’s a moot point now but the Yanks still project to start the year with a strong group that includes Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt, which is why Stroman’s available.

The Mets have more uncertainty in their rotation but still have plenty of arms to potentially fill out their rotation. Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes, Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill are all possibilities. There are question marks with many of those names but that’s eight viable candidates of varying degrees for five rotation spots.

Many observers have considered the Dodgers and the Padres to be the two most likely landing spots, so it’s not especially surprising that San Diego is still in the mix. No one can be sure what Sasaki’s priorities are, but it’s been suggested that the club’s West Coast location and strong performance in recent years are points in their favor, as well as Sasaki’s friendship with Yu Darvish.

As pointed out by The Athletic and others, the Padres could probably use Sasaki more than any other club. They have known financial constraints but plenty of holes to fill, which is why players like Luis Arráez, Dylan Cease, Jake Cronenworth and Robert Suarez have been in trade rumors this winter. Adding a pitcher of Sasaki’s caliber at such a discounted rate would be tremendously helpful for them.

As of right now, the rotation projects to include Darvish, Cease and Michael King, with plenty of question marks beyond that. Adding Sasaki would give the Padres a very strong front four, but it could also perhaps increase the chances of the Friars trading Cease for players that are cheaper and more controllable but less proven.

It’s still anyone’s guess what team will be chosen by Sasaki and why. As mentioned, the Jays are still a possibility, based on Sasaki’s recent trip to Toronto. The Padres are obviously in there as well. The Athletic mentions the Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs and Mariners are clubs that are thought to be in the mix. It’s unknown if Sasaki will visit with any of those other clubs but resolution is coming soon, with more information perhaps trickling out in the coming days.

GM: Giants Have Been Informed They’re Out Of Running For Roki Sasaki

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The Giants are currently introducing future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander at a press conference, but there’s some other headline news coming out of that media session as well. Giants general manager Zack Minasian revealed during his comments that while his team met with Roki Sasaki’s camp, they’ve now been informed that Sasaki will not be signing there (link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area).

There are no further details on the matter than that. It’s not fully clear whether Sasaki visited Oracle Park in San Francisco or whether the meeting being referenced was conducted in Los Angeles, at the headquarters for Sasaki’s agency, Wasserman. That’s moot at this juncture anyhow, though, as the Giants’ elimination from the process is the latest step in narrowing the field.

Agent Joel Wolfe detailed at last month’s Winter Meetings that the plan for Sasaki’s free agency was for teams to submit initial presentations and pitches prior to the holidays. Sasaki and Wasserman hosted interested teams for meetings at a central location — Wasserman’s L.A. headquarters — and the plan was for the 23-year-old righty to then visit some finalists in their home locales after the holidays.

A full list of teams with which he’s visited isn’t publicly known, though Sasaki did travel to Toronto to meet with the Blue Jays recently. Presumably, with Wasserman being based in Los Angeles, Sasaki has met with the Dodgers and nearby Padres — the two long-presumed favorites in the bidding. Other clubs that have been prominently linked to Sasaki include the Rangers, Yankees, Mets, Cubs and Mariners.

With Sasaki not coming to San Francisco and Verlander’s deal now official, the Giants’ rotation appears all but set. Verlander will join Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks in rounding out a quintet that’s quite talented but has a handful of question marks (Verlander’s age, Ray’s health, Hicks’ workload). In-house depth options with at least some big league experience include Tristan Beck, Hayden Birdsong, Mason Black and Landen Roupp.

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