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Reds Designate Edgar Garcia, Select Jonathan India

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The Reds announced this morning that they’ve selected the contract of infielder Jonathan India and cleared a spot on the 40-man roster by designating right-hander Edgar Garcia for assignment. Cincinnati also activated Joey Votto from the injured list and optioned Max Schrock and Mark Payton to the alternate training site. Right-hander Sonny Gray (back injury) and outfielder Shogo Akiyama (hamstring strain) were both placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to March 29, as expected.

Garcia, 24, had a nice spring with the Reds but now could be headed elsewhere before ever playing in a regular-season game for them. Signed to a non-guaranteed big league deal over the winter, Garcia held opponents to a pair of runs on five hits and three walks with eight strikeouts through 7 1/3 Cactus League innings. He struggled with the Phillies and Rays in the Majors from 2019-20 — 6.17 ERA, 16 percent walk rate — but Garcia has posted strong ERAs with very good strikeout and walk rates in both Double-A and Triple-A. He has a minor league option remaining, which could attract the interest of another team.

None of the other moves announced Thursday were unexpected. Cincinnati confirmed what had long been apparent yesterday when declaring that India, the No. 5 overall draft pick in 2018, had made their Opening Day roster. He’s expected to serve as their primary second baseman.

Pitcher Notes: Dodgers, Gray, E-Rod, Yankees, Fiers

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The Dodgers are still deciding among fifth starter options, manager Dave Roberts informed Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters Friday. Southpaw David Price is competing against righties Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin, who impressed as rookies during the Dodgers’ 2020 World Series-winning campaign. As a five-time All-Star and a former AL Cy Young winner, Price certainly carries the best track record of the three – not to mention the highest salary – but he didn’t pitch at all last season after opting out over COVID-19 concerns. Any of those three would join Trevor Bauer, Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urías in what will be a loaded season-opening starting five.

The latest on a few more pitchers around the game:

  • Reds righty Sonny Gray, who has been dealing with a back problem for a couple of weeks, came out of a sim game unscathed Friday, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. After throwing two innings and 30 pitches, Gray said, “I felt good. It was definitely a step in the right direction.” Gray will start the season on the injured list, but he doesn’t expect to miss much time. That’s uplifting news for a Reds starting staff that lost the aforementioned Bauer during the offseason.
  • Eduardo Rodríguez was recently set back by a dead arm but seemed to make some progress this morning. The Red Sox left-hander came out of a bullpen session feeling good about his chances of soon returning to game action, although a season-opening injured list stint remains a possibility (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com and Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). Manager Alex Cora says the club will evaluate how Rodríguez feels tomorrow before making any decisions about his recovery timeline.
  • The Yankees have optioned right-hander Deivi García to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, according to a team announcement. The move suggests Domingo Germán will enter the season as the No. 5 in the Yankees’ rotation behind Gerrit Cole, Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon and Jordan Montgomery, though odds are that García will make his share of starts this season. The 21-year-old, a former top 100 prospect, made his debut last season with a 4.98 ERA/4.21 SIERA with a 22.6 percent strikeout rate against a stingy 4.1 percent walk rate in 34 1/3 innings.
  • Athletics righty Mike Fiers will begin the season on the injured list, manager Bob Melvin announced to Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle and other reporters. Fiers has been dealing with left hip inflammation since midway through the month and hasn’t faced live hitters during his recovery. His injury could open the door for any of Daulton Jefferies, Cole Irvin or A.J. Puk to at least temporarily join the A’s rotation. Fiers tied for the A’s lead in starts (11) and finished second in innings (59) last season, but he struggled to a 4.58 ERA/5.41 SIERA and managed a personal-worst 14.4 percent K rate.

Sonny Gray Likely To Begin Season On Injured List

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Sonny Gray was scratched from a scheduled Cactus League outing today due to a recurring back issue that will likely put the right-handed on the injured list to begin the season.  Gray told The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters that he has been dealing with back spasms for the past month, and since he’ll need time to ramp back up after being shut down for a few days, he will probably miss the season’s first week.

“The way we’ve all kind of thought about it was, do we take five or six days right now and completely try to knock it out so you’re a week behind to start the season or eight days or whatever it ends up being? Or do you just keep going and maybe it turns into a larger issue and then maybe you miss 10 starts,” Gray said.

Since IL placements can be backdated by three days, a minimum 10-day injured list visit would result in Gray missing the Reds’ first six games, thanks to an off-day in the schedule.  Since the Reds are also off on April 8, it would theoretically line Gray up for his season debut April 9 against the Diamondbacks if his injury recovery goes as planned.

As Gray noted, both he and the Reds surely want to be as cautious as possible, though Gray’s absence does create a larger void in Cincinnati’s rotation that has taken some hits in recent days.  Fifth starter candidate Tejay Antone left today’s game with a minor groin strain, while Wade Miley left a game earlier this week due to a hamstring injury.  While there has yet to be word the seriousness of these injuries, should IL placements also be required, the Reds would be starting the year with a provisional rotation of Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, Michael Lorenzen, Jeff Hoffman, and Jose De Leon.  Cincy picked up another arm today by claiming Carson Fulmer off waivers from the Pirates.

Reds Reportedly Discussing Luis Castillo In Trade Talks

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The Reds are discussing right-hander Luis Castillo in trade talks with other teams, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He joins Sonny Gray as high-end Cincinnati starters to come up in conversations this winter. The price on both hurlers remains “appropriately high,” Heyman says.

There’s no indication a Castillo deal is close or even especially likely. Teams are constantly in discussions with rival clubs about various players and potential trade frameworks. Most of those talks don’t result in deals; many aren’t publicly reported.

It’s no surprise other teams are calling to gauge Castillo’s potential availability. The 28-year-old has posted a 3.35 ERA/3.42 FIP across 260.2 innings since the start of the 2019 season. Of the 137 starters with at least 100 innings over the last two years, Castillo ranks 20th in park-adjusted ERA. Among that group, he places nineteenth in strikeout rate (29.4%), thirty-first in K% – BB% (19.8 percentage points) and fourth in ground ball rate (56.1%). Only Jacob deGrom, Blake Snell, Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer have gotten swings and misses at a higher clip.

Castillo’s raw stuff supports those results. He’s one of the sport’s hardest-throwing starters, coming off a season in which he averaged a career-high 97.8 MPH on his sinker. He backs that up with an elite changeup and an effective slider. Castillo certainly looks to have cemented himself among the game’s top arms. He’d be a massive upgrade to any team’s rotation.

It has been a difficult offseason for a Reds club obviously looking to scale back payroll. Cincinnati traded Raisel Iglesias to the Angels for a meager return to get most of his $9.125MM salary off the books. They were one of the more aggressive teams to make cuts at the non-tender deadline and have all but ruled out a reunion with Trevor Bauer. There have also been plenty of rumors about a potential move to get Gray’s $10MM salary off the books, although obviously nothing has come together on that front.

Even with the Reds looking to cut costs, there won’t be any urgency to move Castillo. The right-hander is eligible for arbitration for the first of three times this winter and projected for a bargain salary in the $3-5MM range.

Latest Rumblings On Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer

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The Padres are among the clubs with interest in Reds right-hander Sonny Gray, Fansided’s Robert Murray reports, although there’s no indication that the two sides have engaged in meaningful discussions to this point.

Gray’s name has persistently popped up in the rumor mill this winter, and while Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has sought to downplay Gray chatter as a matter of performing due diligence, it’s hard not to place some extra stock in the Gray rumblings amid the backdrop of several cost-cutting moves out of Cincinnati. The Reds surprisingly non-tendered right-hander Archie Bradley just months after acquiring him in a deadline trade, despite the fact that he pitched well for them and was due a raise on a team-friendly $4.1MM salary. They also cut loose their other primary deadline pickup, outfielder Brian Goodwin, and catcher Curt Casali. Goodwin had struggled in Cincinnati, but Casali turned in a solid 2020 season.

Perhaps most surprising was the trade that sent closer Raisel Iglesias to the Angels in exchange for righty Noe Ramirez and minor league infielder Leo Rivas. It was a marginal return, at best, on a quality late-inning reliever whose $9.125MM salary isn’t exactly exorbitant. Following both the Bradley non-tender and the Iglesias trade, Krall has spoken of reallocating those resources. He did so again this week in an appearance on MLB Network’s MLB Now (video link):

“I think we’ve done some things to reallocate our resources within the organization, and we’re just trying to figure out what’s the best thing we can do for our organization moving forward,” said Krall.

Some Reds fans may hope to see the team utilize those savings for a run at retaining Trevor Bauer, but that may not be likely. In that MLB Now spot, Krall discussed “adding pitching depth, whether it’s rotation depth with the loss of Trevor Bauer.” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman added further context today, tweeting that the Reds consider Bauer to be beyond their price range and adding that Bauer “will be pitching elsewhere” in 2021. It obviously takes just one change of heart from ownership to push for a deal to come together, but that’s a rather bleak characterization of where things stand with regard to their chances of retaining the reigning NL Cy Young winner.

Turning back to Gray, the match between the Reds and Padres is a sensible one on paper but perhaps not so much in practice. The Friars thought they were acquiring multiple years of a high-end rotation option when picking up Mike Clevinger prior to the trade deadline, but he’s now sidelined for all of 2021 due to Tommy John surgery.

That leaves a hole at the top of the rotation, but Murray suggests that even Gray’s $10MM salary might be outside San Diego’s comfort zone at this point. Surely, that’s all the more true given that they’d have to trade away considerable young talent to pry Gray away; even if the Reds are seeking to cut costs, it’s hard to imagine them taking a weak return on Gray when the market for starting pitching has generally been a healthy one to this point.

The Padres already owe $86.05MM to the combination of Manny Machado, Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, Drew Pomeranz, Craig Stammen, Pierce Johnson, Matt Strahm and Clevinger. They still owe arbitration raises to Tommy Pham, Zach Davies, Dinelson Lamet, Emilio Pagan and Dan Altavilla.

For a Padres club intent on paring back last year’s $150MM payroll to some extent, taking on $10MM in salary might not work unless other payroll can be jettisoned elsewhere. And as Murray points out, there would probably be questions about reuniting Gray with pitching coach Larry Rothschild, who coached Gray during an unsuccessful tenure in the Bronx.

Pitching Notes: S. Gray, T. Williams, Urena, Phils, Jays, Matz

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“Several teams” have interest in Reds right-hander Sonny Gray, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. That isn’t at all surprising in the wake of the late-November news that the Reds will at least listen to offers for Gray. General manager Nick Krall suggested later that he isn’t in a hurry to trade Gray away, but it does seem the Reds are in payroll-cutting mode, evidenced by Monday’s trade that sent reliever Raisel Iglesias to the Angels. Gray only has a guaranteed $20MM left on his contract over the next two years, but his performance in 2020 should help make it easier for the Reds to garner a major return in a deal if they do decide to move him. The 31-year-old ended the season with 56 innings of 3.70 ERA/3.05 FIP ball, 11.57 K/9 against 4.18 BB/9, and a 51.1 percent groundball rate.

More on a handful of other pitchers…

  • There are “more than” six teams interested in free-agent righties Trevor Williams and Jose Urena, per Heyman. Both players were cut loose by their former teams last week, but they’ve had success in the past and could be interesting buy-low hurlers in free agency. Williams, 28, struggled mightily in the previous two years but gave the Pirates 321 innings of 3.56 ERA/3.94 FIP pitching from 2017-18. It has been a similar story for the 29-year-old Urena, whom offenses victimized from 2019-20. In the prior two years, though, the ex-Marlin registered a 3.90 ERA/4.68 FIP over 343 2/3 frames.
  • The pitching-needy Phillies “never engaged” righty Charlie Morton, lefty Drew Smyly or reliever Trevor May before they signed free-agent contracts with other teams, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. Two of those players – Morton and Smyly – previously played for the Phillies. They could have improved the Phillies’ rotation, while May might have been an asset to a bullpen that is in desperate need of help. Each player landed an eight-figure deal, though, and the Phillies don’t seem eager to hand out large paydays to anyone this offseason.
  • Before the Mets avoided arbitration with Steven Matz on a $5.2MM agreement, they reached out to the Blue Jays to gauge their interest in the southpaw, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. No trade came together, of course. Toronto would have been hard pressed to consider Matz an upgrade for its rotation after he recorded a horrific 9.68 ERA/7.76 FIP in 30 2/3 innings last season.

Reds GM Nick Krall Discusses Pitching Staff

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Reds general manager Nick Krall recently discussed the team’s pitching outlook for 2021 with reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The baseball operations head said he wouldn’t rule out a reunion with top free agent Trevor Bauer but reiterated that the parties “haven’t really had substantial conversations” to this point.

Should Bauer depart, the Reds have no shortage of arms who could compete for rotation spots behind Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Wade Miley. Recently-acquired Jeff Hoffman could be in that mix, as are Tejay Antone and Michael Lorenzen. Krall also pointed to former top prospect José De León, who struggled in five relief appearances last season but saw his velocity spike into the mid-90’s and remains on the 40-man roster. Brandon Bailey, acquired from the Astros last week, also has starting experience in the minors but is seen as more of a bullpen option for Cincinnati, Krall said.

Of course, there’s also been some discussion of a possible Gray trade. Krall didn’t deny reports the organization is listening to offers on Gray. He did, however, downplay the significance, suggesting those discussions were mostly due diligence. It certainly remains possible another team bowls the Reds over with an offer in the coming months, but Nightengale suggests the most likely outcome is that Gray stays put into next season.

Reds Open To Offers For Sonny Gray

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Just as the Rays are reportedly listening to trade offers on Blake Snell to see if someone will bowl them over, the Reds are performing their own due diligence and at least listening to offers on right-hander Sonny Gray, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. It’s important to note that there’s no indication Cincinnati is actively shopping Gray. However, Rosenthal adds that the Reds are seeking to pare back payroll in 2021, and it’s possible that a Gray trade could fill other needs on the big league roster while simultaneously lowering overall expenditures.

Gray, who just turned 31 earlier this month, would immediately stand out as one of most coveted arms in the game, although the price to acquire him would likely be reflective of that reality. He’s thrived since being traded to Cincinnati, posting a 3.07 ERA and 3.33 FIP with a 50.9 percent grounder rate and averages of 10.8 strikeouts, 3.7 walks and 0.82 home runs per nine innings pitched.

On top of that excellent performance, Gray is owed an eminently affordable $10MM in each of the next two seasons before the Reds (or another club) make the decision on a $12MM club option for the 2023 campaign. In a market that has remained strong for starting pitchers, at least early on, the appeal of Gray’s contract is all the more apparent. Already, we’ve seen Robbie Ray ($8MM with the Blue Jays), Drew Smyly ($11MM, Braves) and Charlie Morton ($15MM, Braves) command sizable one-year pacts.

Any package for Gray would surely need to be focused on MLB-ready talent. The Reds only just emerged from a years-long rebuilding effort and aren’t looking to tear things down by any account. That said, even with Trevor Bauer coming off the books, payroll could be tight. The Reds are looking at salary hikes for first-time arbitration players like Luis Castillo, Jesse Winker, Tyler Mahle and Amir Garrett. Others due raises in arbitration include catcher Curt Casali, righty Michael Lorenzen and trade deadline pickups Brian Goodwin and Archie Bradley.

The Reds also already have $101.375MM guaranteed to Joey Votto, Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suarez, Wade Miley, Raisel Iglesias, Tucker Barnhart and Gray. The projected salaries of their arbitration class could push that sum north by another $24MM or so, depending on non-tenders, and they’ll have to round out the roster with pre-arbitration players.

All in all, the Reds are likely looking at a payroll north of $130MM for the second straight season. Considering last year’s roughly $134MM Opening Day payroll (prior to prorated salaries) was already a franchise record, it’s not a shock that ownership is looking for ways to reduce spending without completely punting on competing in what should be a rather wide-open, four-team division race.

Remaining competitive would be the tricky part. Castillo gives the Reds a legitimate top-of-the-rotation presence even without Gray or Bauer present, and Miley has long been a durable source of innings. Lorenzen hopes to move into next year’s rotation, and Mahle had a solid 2020 showing. Still, it’d be a precipitous drop to go from a playoff rotation of Bauer, Gray and Castillo to a top three of Castillo, Miley and Mahle. The Reds could always add rotation help either as part of the return package for Gray or via the free-agent market, but arms of his caliber aren’t going to be available at a $10MM annual rate.

As for Gray’s potential market, he’d draw widespread interest, and history can provide a guide for a few potential fits. The Padres, Brewers and Twins were linked to Gray when the Yankees made it clear they were shopping him after the 2018 season — much different circumstances than at present. The Rangers were reported to have interest as well, although they’re unlikely to be in the mix now that they’re focusing on a youth movement.

Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, meanwhile, was a member of the Athletics front office when Gray was drafted 18th overall and developed there, and we know San Francisco is looking for rotation help. The Blue Jays have also been in the hunt for rotation help and aren’t facing the type of payroll constraints felt by many of their rivals. The Angels seem to be perennially searching for starting pitching upgrades. Others would undoubtedly enter the fray.

It bears repeating that this appears to be a far different scenario than when Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said in 2018 that he was “open-minded to relocation” for Gray and conceded it was “probably best [for Gray] to try somewhere else.” Gray’s stock has skyrocketed since that time, and without some combination of MLB-ready young talent (ideally at shortstop and in the rotation), it’s hard to imagine a trade actually coming together. Even then, this would be a difficult trade to make for a Reds team intent on contending, but other clubs will be motivated to try to make them consider the possibility.

Reds Activate Sonny Gray, Designate Nate Jones

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The Reds have activated righty Sonny Gray from the 10-day injured list, the team announced.  Gray is scheduled to start tonight’s game against the Brewers.  To create roster space, right-hander Nate Jones has been designated for assignment.

A back strain sent Gray to the injured list on September 13 (retroactive placement to September 11), though fortunately for Gray and the Reds, the injury looks to have been a relatively minor one.  Gray is now also lined up to start Sunday in what would be Cincinnati’s final game of the regular season, though that game is likely to be an all-hands-on-deck type of situation if the Reds need to win to clinch a playoff spot.

Heading into today’s action, the 28-27 Reds hold the seventh seed as a wild card in the NL postseason field, but the Brewers and Giants aren’t far behind at 26-27, with the eighth-seed Phillies sandwiched in between with an even 28-28 record.  Cincinnati is also chasing the 26-25 Cardinals for second place in the NL Central, which guaranteed an automatic playoff berth.

Ironically, the Reds have gone 9-2 since Gray was retroactively placed on the IL, though there is no doubt he represents a major addition for Cincy down the stretch.  Gray has a 3.94 ERA, 11.8 K/9, and 2.86 K/BB rate over 45 2/3 innings this season, with ERA indicators (2.92 FIP, 3.16 xFIP, 3.80 SIERA) generally showing that Gray’s 3.94 number is a bit inflated.

Jones struck out 23 batters and recorded a strong 3.83 K/BB rate over his 18 2/3 relief innings this season, but an ugly 2.4 HR/9 was largely responsible for Jones’ 6.27 ERA.  On the plus side, the oft-injured Jones did stay healthy this year after missing much of 2019 due to forearm surgery, though he was obviously hoping for better performance for his hometown team.  Jones signed a minor league deal with the Reds last winter.

NL Injury Notes: Molina, Gamel, Buehler, Gray

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X-rays were negative on Yadier Molina’s left wrist after the catcher was hit by a pitch during the seventh inning of the Cardinals’ 5-4 win over the Pirates last night.  Molina was behind the plate for the bottom half of the seventh before being replaced by pinch-hitter Matt Wieters in the top of the eighth.  Cards manager Mike Shildt told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters that Molina “got hit in the same spot, pretty much” that Ryan Braun also made contact with Molina’s wrist earlier this week on a swing that drew a catcher’s interference call on Molina.

It isn’t yet known if Molina will require any time off, though missing any games will be a blow to a Cardinals team that needs all hands on deck as it tries to lock up a playoff spot.  Molina has hit .256/.296/.342 over 126 PA this season and spent three weeks on the injured list after a positive COVID-19 test.

More injury notes from around the National League…

  • The Brewers placed Ben Gamel on the 10-day IL due to a left quad strain, so the outfielder’s 2020 season is over.  Lorenzo Cain’s decision to opt out of the 2020 campaign left Gamel with a larger workload, and he assumed regular duty between center field and right field for much of the season.  The result was a .237/.315/.404 slash line and three home runs over 127 PA, working out to a 91 OPS+ and 92 wRC+.  It wasn’t a bad showing for a player who is probably best suited for fourth outfielder duty, though it remains to be seen if Gamel has done enough for the Brewers to exercise their $2.55MM club option on his services for the 2021 season.
  • Walker Buehler threw a 90-pitch simulated game yesterday and is slated to be activated off the 10-day IL for a Thursday start.  (MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick was among those to report the news.)  Buehler has made two trips to the injured list due to blister problems, resulting in just seven innings pitched since August 21.  Thursday’s start against the Athletics will therefore serve as an opportunity for Buehler to warm up prior to the Dodgers’ postseason run.  Buehler is still expected to be a big factor for Los Angeles during the playoffs, though he hasn’t quite matched his 2019 form in this shortened season.  Thanks in large part to a 1.9 HR/9, Buehler has a 3.86 ERA over 32 2/3 innings in 2020, though with a 3.60 K/BB rate, 9.9 K/9, and generally above-average Statcast numbers.
  • Sonny Gray is tentatively scheduled to return during the Reds’ upcoming series with the Brewers, perhaps as early as Tuesday.  However, Reds manager David Bell told John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer and other reporters that no “final, final call” will be made until the team sees how Gray is feeling following a side session on Saturday.  Gray has been on the injured list (retroactively) since September 11 due to a back strain, and his return would be a major boost as the Reds chase a postseason berth.
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