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Ranger Suarez Exits With Left Hand Contusion

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TODAY: The swelling in Suarez’s hand has already significantly reduced overnight, Thomson told Matt Gelb and other reporters today.  Suarez still won’t try throwing for a day or two for precautionary reasons.

JUNE 1: Phillies left-hander Ranger Suarez exited his start against the Cardinals this evening after just two innings of work after he was struck in the hand by a 106 mph line drive off the bat of outfielder Alec Burleson. As noted by Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer, the Phillies initially termed the injury a left hand contusion before sending him for testing during the game. Manager Rob Thomson told reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb) shortly after the game that x-rays on Suarez’s hand were negative, although he was dealing with some swelling.

It’s not currently clear if Suarez’s hand will recover quickly enough for him to make his next start, although Thomson suggested that they “feel pretty lucky” to have seemingly dodged a more serious injury. The manager added that the club currently plans to give Suarez a few days before determining whether he’ll make his next start or if he’ll require a trip to the injured list. The lefty is currently slated to make his next start on June 8 against the Mets as part of the London series. Thanks to the two days off the team will have prior to the start of that series, Suarez was already slated to make his next start on extra rest.

The fact that Suarez appears to have avoided a major injury is surely a huge relief for Phillies fans. The 28-year-old hurler has been among the very best pitchers in all of baseball this year with a sterling 1.75 ERA through his first eleven starts this season, trailing only Reynaldo Lopez and Seth Lugo. That figure is good for a whopping 230 ERA+, and Suarez has enjoyed impressive peripherals that largely back up his excellent performance. In 72 innings of work to this point in the season, Suarez has struck out a career-best 28.4% of batters faced while walking just 5.4% and generating grounders at a whopping 53.8% clip. Among qualified pitchers, that groundball rate ranks seventh in the majors while K-BB% of 22.5% ranks twelfth.

Given how incredibly productive Suarez has been for the Phillies to this point in the season as they’ve surged to an MLB-best 41-18 record, even a brief absence for the lefty would be a noteworthy blow. Fortunately for the club, however, they have an tailor-made replacement option available to them in the event that the lefty does miss a start or two. Right-hander Spencer Turnbull took the ball for three impressive innings following Suarez’s exit, allowing no hits and no walks while striking out six batters. That sensational performance in relief tonight continues what has been a strong season in Philadelphia for Turnbull.

Entering play tonight, the righty had made twelve appearances for the Phillies including six starts and pitched to a fantastic 2.40 ERA with a 3.43 FIP in 41 1/3 innings of work. While Turnbull was pushed out of the rotation by the return of right-hander Taijuan Walker from the injured list earlier this year, the righty has remained an effect multi-inning relief option for the Phillies and after a 49-pitch outing this evening could reasonably take the ball for an abbreviated start in place of Suarez on Saturday in London if necessary.

Phillies Considering Multiple Ways To Keep Spencer Turnbull In Rotation Mix

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Right-hander Spencer Turnbull has been a revelation in the Phillies’ rotation after filling in for the injured Taijuan Walker to begin the season. While Walker’s return from the injured list might have seemed like an obvious means of pushing Turnbull back into a long relief role earlier in the season, Turnbull has pitched so well that the Phils likely feel they can’t take him out of his current spot.

Indeed, manager Rob Thomson told the Phillies beat yesterday that the club will consider creative means of keeping Turnbull in the mix — be it piggybacking him with another starter or alternating between Sanchez and Turnbull in the fifth spot of the rotation depending on the opponent they’re facing (links via Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com).

The Phillies’ rotation, as a whole, has been remarkable this season. Philadelphia starters rank first in the majors with 190 2/3 innings pitched, second with a 2.50 ERA, second with a 26% strikeout rate, tenth with a 7% walk rate and third with a 52% ground-ball rate. Their collective 3.28 FIP is also second-best in MLB, and Phillies starters lead the league with a 3.22 SIERA. By virtually any measure, they’ve been outstanding.

Righties Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are both out to excellent starts. Wheeler, in particular, is sitting on a sub-2.00 ERA with his typical blend of plus strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. Nola is sporting a 3.20 mark with a roughly average strikeout rate and a strong 7% walk rate. He’s been a bit homer-prone for what’s now a second straight season, but he’s generally pitched well in the first season of his new seven-year contract.

Left-hander Ranger Suarez has arguably been the team’s most effective starter. He touts a team-best 1.32 ERA through his first six turns on the mound. He’s logged 41 innings with a plus 27.8% strikeout rate and elite walk and ground-ball rates (3.5% and 60.8%, respectively). He won’t sustain a .189 BABIP and 92.9% strand rate, but the skill components of his performance have been terrific.

Fifth starter Cristopher Sanchez has been solid, recording a 3.68 ERA in 29 1/3 frames. His 22% strikeout rate is barely south of average, and while his 9.8% walk rate is on the high side, he’s helped mitigate some of those free passes with a massive 62.2% grounder rate. Righty Taijuan Walker just returned from the injured list and was hit hard in his first start, but he was a quality innings eater for the Phils last year (4.32 ERA in 31 starts) and is being paid $18MM this season to fill that role again.

Turnbull’s run-prevention thus far is right up there with Wheeler and Suarez. Through six starts, he’s pitched 32 1/3 innings of 1.67 ERA ball with an excellent 28.7% strikeout rate against a 7.9% walk rate that’s about a percentage point better than average. He’s not sitting at Suarez/Sanchez levels with his ground-ball rate, but his mark of 49.4% is still comfortably north of the 43% league average.

A piggyback situation with Sanchez or some kind of alternating fifth starter role could make particular sense for Turnbull, who missed  the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and pitched only 57 innings between the big leagues and minors last year. At some point, his workload could become a factor, as his body simply hasn’t endured a full season of innings since the 2019 campaign, when he started 30 games for the Tigers and pitched 148 1/3 innings.

The more straightforward solution would be to go to a six-man rotation, but Thomson has suggested in the past that the team doesn’t consider that a likely arrangement. However they proceed, it seems Turnbull — who has already wildly outperformed his modest one-year, $2MM deal — will continue to factor prominently into the team’s pitching staff as he gears up for what seems likely to be a much more lucrative trip through free agency again next winter.

NL East Notes: Ozuna, Turnbull, Mets, Senga, Megill, Cavalli

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“There’s no way you want to go explore somewhere else when you feel comfortable, when you’ve got your teammates and you’ve got your organization’s love.  There’s no doubt in my decision.  I don’t want to go anywhere else,” Marcell Ozuna told The Athletic’s David O’Brien about his desire to sign a contract extension with the Braves.  Ozuna’s four-year, $65MM deal is up at season’s end, though the Braves hold a $16MM club option for 2025 that looks like a sure bet to be exercised give how well Ozuna is performing at the plate.  Coming off a 40-homer campaign in 2023, Ozuna has stayed hot by hitting .344/.419/.677 over his first 105 plate appearances in 2024, leading the National League with nine homers.

The idea of Ozuna remaining in Atlanta over the long term would’ve seemed far-fetched a year ago.  The veteran struggled badly over the first two seasons of his contract, and that two-year stint also included an arrest on a DUI charge, and a 20-game suspension under MLB’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy.  Since the Braves reportedly never considered parting ways with Ozuna in the wake of these issues or his lack of production on the field, it would stand to reason that the team would be open to some kind of longer-term commitment beyond just the club option year.  Some obvious obstacles exist — Ozuna will be 35 in November 2025 and is essentially a DH-only player at this point in his career, plus Atlanta’s payroll is already at team-record heights in both pure dollars and in luxury tax value.

More from the NL East…

  • Taijuan Walker is expected to be activated from the 15-day injured list on Sunday to start the Phillies’ game against the Padres.  A shoulder impingement delayed Walker’s 2024 debut, and it also created an opportunity for Spencer Turnbull to open some eyes as the fill-in starter in Philadelphia’s rotation.  With an outstanding 1.33 ERA over 27 innings and five starts, Turnbull has certainly pitched well enough to remain in the starting mix, but Rob Thomson told the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Alex Coffey (X link) and other reporters that a decision will be held off on Turnbull’s next step until after Walker throws on Sunday.  Turnbull could get a proper start on Tuesday, or be part of a piggyback start with Cristopher Sanchez in Monday’s game.  With Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Sanchez, and Turnbull all looking great thus far in the season, Walker’s return gives the Phillies a rare pitching surplus at the moment, and creates a nice problem for the team to navigate.
  • In some Mets injury updates, Kodai Senga will throw a live batting practice session on Monday, and Tylor Megill will begin a minor league rehab assignment today with high-A Brooklyn.  (The Athletic’s Tim Britton was among those to report the news.)  Senga has yet to pitch this season due to a moderate posterior capsule strain suffered during Spring Training, and because of his placement on the 60-day injured list, won’t be eligible to join the Mets until May 27 at the earliest.  Megill pitched in one game before a shoulder strain sent him to the 15-day IL.  Megill and Senga could each potentially be part of a six-man rotation over the next six weeks, as Britton writes that New York is considering using an extra starter to keep everyone fresh through a busy stretch of the schedule.
  • Cade Cavalli is set for a live batting practice session on Monday, his first time facing real hitters since undergoing Tommy John surgery in March 2023.  Cavalli updated reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Bobby Blanco) about his rehab progress, as the plan is for the right-hander to start a minor league rehab assignment in the middle of May.  Nationals manager Davey Martinez then views Cavalli’s return to the majors for “sometime at the end of June, maybe July.”  The 22nd overall pick of the 2020 draft pitched in exactly one MLB game before his career was put on pause by the TJ procedure, and assuming all goes well health-wise, Cavalli should now be in line for his extended stint in a big league rotation.

East Notes: Phillies, Wood, Means

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Phillies right-hander Taijuan Walker began the 2024 campaign on the injured list due to a shoulder issue, but he’s making good progress en route to a return to action. As noted by Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer, club manager Rob Thomson told reporters recently that Walker would begin his rehab assignment with the club’s Single-A affiliate in Clearwater, Florida this week. That first rehab outing occurred Thursday night, with Walker allowing two runs over four innings of work while striking out four and walking none.

Per Thomson, that start was the first of what is expected to be four rehab appearances for Walker before he rejoins the Phillies’ big league roster. Walker’s return to action would seem to spell the end of right-hander Spencer Turnbull’s time in the Philadelphia rotation, likely ticketing him for a long relief role in the club’s bullpen. That may not be the case, however, as Coffey relays that Thomson has indicated that there could be a path for Turnbull to remain in the rotation even after Walker returns, noting that “if he keeps putting up zeroes… that’s tough to remove him from the rotation.”

Turnbull’s certainly done everything he can to justify a regular spot in the rotation to this point in the season. Through his first two appearances with the Phillies, the right-hander has struck out 13 batters in eleven scoreless innings against the Reds and Cardinals, scattering five hits and one walk during that time. While his start today against the Pirates left something to be desired, as he allowed three runs in four innings of work, that still leaves him with a solid 1.80 ERA through three turns in the club’s rotation. While it seems unlikely that Turnbull would bump any of Walker, Ranger Suarez, or Christopher Sanchez to the bullpen (much less co-aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola), Thomson suggested that the club could use Turnbull as a piggyback starter or even utilize a six-man rotation later this season in order to get the right-hander more reps.

More from around the league’s East divisions…

  • Sticking with the NL, the Nationals have not yet broached the subject of a contract extension with top outfield prospect James Wood, according to Stephen Mears of TalkNats.com. Wood, 21, is a consensus top-15 prospect in the game as has carried a phenomenal spring that saw him slash .364/.509/.705 in 22 big league camp games into a strong start to the Triple-A season where he’s hit an even better .441/.558/.794 in his first 43 plate appearances. Given the youngster has not yet even made his major league debut, it’s hardly a shock that the sides haven’t engaged in extension negotiations to this point. On the other hand, its become increasingly common for top talents to sign extensions early on in or even before the start of their big league careers in recent years. Top prospects Jackson Chourio and Colt Keith both signed pre-debut extensions with the Brewers and Tigers respectively, this winter, while star youngsters such as Corbin Carroll and Julio Rodriguez are among those to sign massive extensions prior to reaching even one year of service time in the majors.
  • Looking toward the AL, the Orioles began the 2024 season with their starting rotation at less than full strength due to both right-hander Kyle Bradish and left-hander John Means starting the season on the injured list. Recent reporting has indicated that Bradish is nearing a rehab assignment as he nurses a sprained UCL, and GM Mike Elias indicated this afternoon to reporters (including the Baltimore Banner’s Danielle Allentuck) that Means is even closer to a return to action. Per Elias, Means is scheduled for a fourth rehab appearances next week and could return to the majors before the end of the month. The left-hander pitched to a strong 2.66 ERA in four starts down the stretch last year following his late-season return from Tommy John surgery and figures to slot into the middle of the Baltimore rotation behind Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez upon his return.

Taijuan Walker, Orion Kerkering To Open Season On IL

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March 24: Walker told reporters (including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com) this afternoon that he was diagnosed with a shoulder impingement. He’ll begin the season on the injured list, though he added that rest is the only treatment required and that he hopes his stay on the shelf will be a short one.

March 23: Phillies right-hander Taijuan Walker was scratched from his recent spring start due to shoulder stiffness, manager Rob Thomson told reporters today (including Matt Gelb of The Athletic). Gelb notes that right-hander Spencer Turnbull figures to open the season in the club’s rotation if Walker begins the season on the injured list. Walker isn’t the only Phillies pitcher dealing with injury troubles, as Todd Zolecki of MLB.com adds that right-hander Orion Kerkering is will begin the season on the injured list after missing time this spring due to illness.

The twin injury updates are tough news for Phillies fans. Walker was a solid back-of-the-rotation starter for the club last year with a roughly league average 4.38 ERA and 4.53 FIP, though he was durable enough to make 31 starts for the club last year and post 172 2/3 innings of work. Now, it seems likely that Walker will miss at least the first few weeks of the regular season, though it’s difficult to say how severe his injury is barring further updates from the Phillies.

Taking Walker’s place in the rotation should he begin the season on the shelf figures to be Turnbull, a former second-round pick who spent four years as a mid-to-back of the rotation starter with the Tigers. From his big league debut through the 2021 season,  Turnbull posted a solid 4.25 ERA with an even strong 3.63 FIP. He was limited to just 54 appearances across those four seasons by injuries, however, including Tommy John surgery which limited him to nine starts in 2021 and sidelined him for the entire 2022 season.

Injury woes persisted through his return to the mound in 2023, as Turnbull struggled to a 7.26 ERA and 5.55 FIP across seven starts in the big leagues while battling neck and foot issues that caused a dispute regarding service time between Turnbull and the Tigers. Detroit eventually non-tendered Turnbull, at which point he signed with the Phillies on a big league deal. Turnbull appeared poised to begin the season as a long relief option out of the club’s bullpen, though he’s spent most of his career as a starter to this point and should have minimal trouble adjusting to the change in plans.

As for Kerkering, the soon-to-be 23-year-old right-hander made his major league debut last season, allowing one run in three innings of work while striking out six of the fourteen batters he faced. That impressive cup of coffee earned Kerkering a role on the postseason roster in Philadelphia. He pitched 5 1/3 innings of work during the postseason against the Marlins, Braves, and Diamondbacks, putting together a 3.38 ERA while striking out five and walking three.

Despite his minimal big league experience, Kerkering nonetheless had long been expected to be part of the club’s bullpen mix on Opening Day. That won’t come to fruition, however, as Kerkering will spend at least the first few weeks of the season on the shelf as he continues to prepare for the 2024 season. Kerkering’s absence, along with Turnbull’s likely move from the bullpen to the rotation, creates some level of uncertainty in the Philly bullpen. The Phillies acquired right-hander Zac Houston from the Rays earlier today, and he could join the likes of Connor Brogdon, Kolby Allard, Michael Mercado, and Yunior Marte as possible options for the two bullpen spots previously expected to go to Kerkering and Turnbull.

Note: An earlier version of this post incorrectly stated that Walker had been sent for an MRI on his shoulder. MLBTR regrets the error.

Phillies Sign Spencer Turnbull

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The Phillies announced that they have signed right-hander Spencer Turnbull to a contract. It’s a one-year, $2MM deal, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). Turnbull, a client of the Boras Corporation, can also earn another $2MM in incentives.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Turnbull to earn $2.4MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility, yet the Tigers chose to non-tender the righty in November.  It is fair to assume that the clashes between Turnbull and the Tigers over service time contributed to the club’s decision moreso than his modest price tag, though Turnbull also has a checkered health history coming off what is almost three straight lost seasons.

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has some familiarity with Turnbull, as Dombrowski was still running the Tigers front office when Detroit selected Turnbull in the second round of the 2014 draft.  The righty battled some shoulder problems during his trip up the minor league ladder, but made his MLB debut with 16 1/3 innings in 2018 and then tossed 148 1/3 frames during the 2019 season.  Despite a league-high 17 losses that year, Turnbull had decent enough peripherals that he looked like a potential building block for the rebuilding Tigers.

That potential was further realized when Turnbull posted a 3.46 ERA over 106 2/3 innings in 2020-21.  He pitched well for Detroit during the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, and then his 2021 season was highlighted by a no-hitter on May 18 of that year.  Unfortunately, Turnbull made only three more appearances after his no-no before undergoing Tommy John surgery, which sidelined him for the rest of the 201 season and all of 2022.

Returning to action last year, Turnbull struggled to a 7.26 ERA over seven starts, and he didn’t pitch again the majors after May 6.  He was initially optioned to the minors the next day, though that option was overwritten a week after when Turnbull was placed on the 15-day IL due to neck discomfort.  The right-hander was eventually moved to the 60-day injured list and wasn’t activated until August, when Turnbull was then optioned to Triple-A.

Turnbull wasn’t pleased with the demotion because he was also dealing with foot injury at the time, and the situation was eventually resolved in November when Turnbull was awarded a full year of MLB service time.  He now has five years and 20 days of acknowledged big league service time, and would’ve fallen short of the five-year mark had his appeal for more time hadn’t been granted.  This would have delayed Turnbull’s eventual trip to free agency for another year, as he wouldn’t have had the necessary six full years of eligibility heading into the 2024-25 offseason, though that ended up being something of a moot point after the Tigers non-tendered him.

The 31-year-old will now look for a fresh start in Philadelphia under Dombrowski’s watch once again.  Dombrowski spoke last month about how the Phillies were looking to add depth to their pitching staff, though since the Phils already have a pretty set rotation and bullpen mix, the team was having some difficulty in luring pitchers who wanted more opportunities for innings.  This could explain why the Phillies opted for Turnbull, whose market was lessened given his recent injury woes.

Turnbull, Dylan Covey, Kolby Allard, Nick Nelson, and Max Castillo now project as Philadelphia’s top rotation depth options.  Any of this group could also pitch in the bullpen, and Turnbull has a leg up on the others due to the guaranteed nature of his contract.  Working as a reliever might also present a new career path for Turnbull to explore if starting pitching is no longer in the cards, though it still seems too early for that door to be closed.

Five Non-Tendered Starters To Keep An Eye On This Offseason

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Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline sees club’s allow players under team control to head for the open market early, whether it be due to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a need for additional space on the club’s 40-man roster. The 2023 campaign saw the likes of Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario go on to have strong seasons after being non-tendered the offseason prior, and yesterday we discussed five hitters who were let go by their team’s prior to last week’s non-tender deadline.

While the best pieces among last offseason’s crop of non-tenders were both position players, recent history has offered a handful of arms who went on to provide significant value to teams after being non-tendered earlier in their career, with Kevin Gausman and Taijuan Walker standing as two of the more recent examples. The pair eventually went on to sign multi-year pacts worth $110MM and $72MM, respectively, though it’s anyone’s guess if any of members of this year’s group of non-tendered hurlers will manage to reach those same heights.

This year’s crop of arms won’t benefit from an otherwise weak free agent class the way this year’s hitters will, as the class of free agent starters is deep in potential options, ranging from top-of-the-line aces like Yoshinobu Yamamoto to interesting bounceback candidates like Jack Flaherty and Frankie Montas. Even so, clubs can never have enough starting pitching depth, and each of these arms could at least in theory provide a club with valuable innings in the future if given the chance to do so. Without further ado, let’s take a look at five starters who hit free agency following last week’s non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the offseason. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2024 season in parentheses.

Kolby Allard (26)

Not too long ago, Allard was among the game’s most highly-touted prospects. After being selected fourteenth overall by the Braves in the 2015 draft, Allard was a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport by the time he reached Double-A in 2017. After cruising through that campaign with a 3.18 ERA across 150 innings of work at just 19 years old, Allard got his first taste of big league action with Atlanta in 2018, though his stint in the majors lasted just eight innings. After being traded to the Rangers in 2019, Allard spent parts of three seasons swinging in and out of the Rangers rotation, with a 5.70 ERA and 4.96 FIP in 203 2/3 innings of work.

A failed stint in the bullpen in 2022 led the Rangers to deal Allard back to the Braves in exchange for Jake Odorizzi. Allard missed nearly the entire 2023 campaign with oblique and shoulder issues, leading the Braves to non-tender the lefty. While Allard has struggled to establish himself at the big league level, he’ll pitch next season at just 26 years old and advanced metrics such as xFIP (4.57) and SIERA (4.31) have seen his performance as roughly league average since the start of the 2021 campaign, lending credence to the hope that the lefty could still prove to be a solid back-end starter one day.

Yonny Chirinos (30)

Chirinos began his big league career back in 2018 as a member of the Rays, and was a quality arm for the club in a variety of roles from 2018-20. In those three seasons, the right-hander posted a 3.65 ERA (117 ERA+) and 4.17 FIP while appearing in 47 games (28 starts) and pitching a total of 234 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, Chirinos underwent Tommy John surgery in August of 2020 and didn’t return to the mound until late in the 2022 campaign.

Chirinos struggled in his first full season back from surgery in 2023. Though he posted a decent 4.02 ERA in 62 2/3 innings of work as a swingman for the Rays, his peripherals (including a 5.49 FIP and an 11.8% strikeout rate) indicated his performance had slipped considerably. That led Tampa to part ways with Chirinos, who was ultimately claimed off waivers by the Braves. Chirinos’s results took a turn for the worse in Atlanta, as he was blown up for a 9.27 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work before being placed on the injured list with elbow inflammation. While Chirinos struggled through his first full season back from Tommy John this year, it’s easy to see the right-hander becoming a valuable, versatile depth piece for a contending club again in 2024 if he manages to get healthy.

Dakota Hudson (29)

A first-round selection by the Cardinals in the 2016 draft, Hudson was a quick riser who made his big league debut with the club back in 2018. The groundballer significantly outperformed his peripheral stats early in his career to perform at a mid-rotation level for the Cardinals, with a sterling 3.17 ERA in 241 innings of work 2018-20 despite a 4.74 FIP. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery cost Hudson almost all of the 2021 season, and upon returning to the Cardinals’ rotation in 2022 his results diminished significantly. In 221 frames since the start of the 2022 campaign, Hudson has posted a 4.64 ERA (88 ERA+) and nearly matching 4.60 FIP as his strikeout rate has dipped to just 13% against a 10% walk rate. That led the Cardinals to non-tender Hudson even in spite of their extreme need for rotation depth headed into 2024.

Brutal as the past two seasons have been for Hudson, it’s worth noting that he still generates grounders at a elite clip; among pitchers with at least 200 innings of work over the past two years, Hudson’s 52.5% groundball rate ranks ninth, sandwiched between Sandy Alcantara and Ranger Suarez. Though the Cardinals were unable to trade Hudson before last week’s non-tender deadline, it’s certainly feasible that a team in need of starting depth could look to take a flier on Hudson’s groundball abilities in hopes they can return him to the form he flashed earlier in his career.

Spencer Turnbull (31)

After being drafted by the Tigers in the second round of the 2014 draft, Turnbull eventually reached the majors for a brief cup of coffee in 2018 before receiving a regular spot in the club’s starting rotation during the 2019 campaign. That rookie campaign saw Turnbull post a 4.61 ERA that was slightly better than league average (103 ERA+) in 148 1/3 innings of work, though his 3.99 FIP hinted at another gear to his performance. After taking a small step forward during the shortened 2020 season (3.97 ERA, 3.49 FIP in 11 starts), Turnbull appeared to put it all together in the 2021 campaign with a 2.88 ERA and 2.97 FIP before his season was cut short after just nine starts by Tommy John surgery.

Turnbull returned in early 2023 and appeared poised to step back into the club’s rotation, but a mix of injuries, under-performance, and a dispute between Turnbull and Detroit brass over service time led to the sides parting ways this offseason with Turnbull having posted a 7.26 ERA over seven starts at the big league level. Despite those brutal numbers, Turnbull is nonetheless among the more interesting bounceback candidates on the open market this offseason given his recent health struggles and the incredible upside he flashed during the 2021 campaign.

Brandon Woodruff (31)

This list wouldn’t be complete without a mention of Woodruff, who has emerged as one of the game’s best starters in recent years. Since his first season as a regular member of the Brewers’ rotation in 2019, Woodruff has dominated to the tune of a 2.93 ERA and 3.10 FIP in 103 starts while collecting two All Star appearances and a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting back in 2021. Woodruff was dominant as ever in 2023, with a 2.28 ERA and a 29.2% strikeout rate this season. Unfortunately, he was dogged by injuries throughout the season and limited to just eleven starts before undergoing shoulder surgery last month.

Unlike the other arms on this list, there are zero questions about Woodruff’s ability, as he’s a consensus front-of-the-rotation arm in terms of pure talent. Despite that, the Brewers made the difficult decision to non-tender him last week due to questions surrounding his availability for the 2024 campaign. It’s unclear if Woodruff will be able to return to the mound at all in 2024 following his surgery, though the right-hander expressed optimism earlier this offseason that he would be able to pitch again sometime next summer. Still, that uncertainty led the Brewers to part ways with the right-hander rather than tender him a contract that MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected to be worth $11.6MM, a hefty sum for a small-market club to commit to a pitcher who might not be available next season. Though Woodruff’s timetable for return is uncertain, he has the potential to be among the most impactful pitchers in the entire free agent class based on his track record over the past several seasons. That combination of risk and tantalizing upside leave Woodruff as one of the most interesting free agents not only on this list but in the offseason’s entire class.

MLBTR Podcast: Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Why is the MLB offseason so slow to get going? The other leagues, most of your top free agents are off the board within a few days. It’s been three weeks since players filed for free agency and nothing. (19:55)
  • Do you think the Dodgers do something major this year or will it be another disappointing offseason for the fans? (23:30)
  • Do you think the Pirates sign Rhys Hoskins or settle for someone cheaper? (26:20)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
  • Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
  • Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here

Spencer Turnbull Awarded Full Year Of Service For 2023

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Free agent right-hander Spencer Turnbull has been retroactively awarded a full year of service in 2023 despite being on optional assignment from mid-August until the end of the season. The MLB Players Association released a statement from Turnbull on the matter, relayed by Evan Drellich of The Athletic, explaining the issue. “At the time I was optioned in August 2023,” the statement reads, “I was dealing with a foot injury. I raised this with the Club. After further review of my medical condition, the Club has now agreed to reverse the option and I am receiving full major league service for the 2023 season.”

Turnbull, now 31, seemingly butted heads with the Tigers a couple of times in the past year. He was initially optioned to the minors in May but that option was rescinded less than a week later, with Turnbull instead being placed on the major league injured list due to neck discomfort. “After Spencer left the room I got a call from him directly in which he disclosed some neck discomfort,” president of baseball operations Scott Harris said at that time. “As soon as we heard that, we set up an appointment for him with our doctor. We also had him see a specialist out of state. We had those doctors discuss what’s going on with his neck. They confirmed the injury and we placed him on the injured list as of Sunday.”

He was later transferred to the 60-day IL and wasn’t reinstated until the third week of August, when he was promptly optioned to the minors again. Shortly thereafter, reports emerged that the relationship between the pitcher and the club was fraught, with Turnbull referencing a cracked toenail at that time. Turnbull was just non-tendered by the club last week and reports emerged that he had asked to be traded prior to the deadline in early August. But no deal came together and he stayed on the roster until the non-tender last week.

There are multiple issues at play here. Injured players at the big league level are supposed to be placed on the major league injured list and cannot be optioned to the minors when they are hurt. While on the IL, they continue to collect major league service time and pay. With Turnbull optioned for the final month-plus of the season, he finished just shy of five years of service. By now getting that extra option reversed, his service time will go beyond the five-year plateau.

That is important for Turnbull on a couple of fronts. For one, players with more than five years of service can’t be optioned to the minors without their consent. Prior to this ruling, Turnbull was still going to have an option year remaining in 2024, allowing a club to sign him but keep him as depth in the minors in they wanted. That will no longer be on the table. Secondly, if Turnbull eventually spends all of 2024 in the majors or on the IL, he will get beyond six years of service and qualify for free agency again. Prior to today’s change, a club could have theoretically signed him for 2024 and then retained him via arbitration for 2025, since Turnbull would have been just shy of six years in that scenario. All in all, Turnbull has gained some more control over his future than he would have otherwise had.

Prior to the odyssey of being optioned and then landing on the IL and then the second option, Turnbull’s 2023 season began terribly. He made seven starts to begin the campaign and had an ERA of 7.26. That was on the heels of missing the entire 2022 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he had a good run prior to that. From 2019 to 2021, he threw 255 innings with a 4.13 ERA, 21.9% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 50.3% ground ball rate.

Central Notes: Woodruff, Turnbull, Cardinals

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The Brewers parted ways with right-handed ace Brandon Woodruff ahead of the non-tender deadline late last week, making the 30-year-old a free agent for the first time in his career. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic discussed the circumstances under which Woodruff became a free agent and his outlook entering the open market this morning, noting that the Brewers did receive interest from multiple clubs ahead of Friday’s deadline in acquiring Woodruff. The return in such a deal would have been negligible, however, and Rosenthal notes that Milwaukee decided to simply non-tender Woodruff rather than ship him to a team he might not prefer to join in exchange for a minimal return.

Now that the Brewers have allowed Woodruff to hit free agency, Rosenthal notes that the right-hander figures to receive two-year offers on the open market, suggesting that the total guarantee could clock in below the two-year, $30.35MM extension Rays righty Tyler Glasnow inked with the Rays last summer. Though Glasnow was in a somewhat similar situation to Woodruff at the time of the deal, having missed the entire 2022 season to that point due to Tommy John surgery, Glasnow was nearing a return from the procedure when he signed on to a deal that would cover his age-29 and -30 campaigns. Woodruff, by contrast, is expected to miss anywhere between six and eighteen months, per Rosenthal, and would be signing on for his age-31 and -32 campaigns.

More from around MLB’s central divisions…

  • Joining Woodruff on the free agent market after being non-tendered by the Tigers is right-hander Spencer Turnbull. Per Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, president of baseball operations tried to trade Turnbull ahead of Friday’s non-tender deadline but was unable to find any takers. The decision to non-tender Turnbull, McCosky notes, comes after a long-running saga of issues between the club’s decision to option Turnbull to Triple-A back in May (a move that was later rescinded due to an at-the-time undisclosed neck injury) and subsequent decision to option him a second time in August while he was working his way back from the neck injury and subsequent toe issue. Tensions between the sides got to the point that McCosky notes Turnbull requested a trade ahead of the trade deadline on August 1 this past summer, though of course no deal wound up occurring back then. Now a free agent, Turnbull figures to be among the more interesting rebound candidates on the rotation market this offseason, given his flashes of success from 2020-21 when he posted a 3.46 ERA and 3.24 FIP across 20 starts.
  • While the Cardinals are known to be in the market for multiple starting pitchers and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak referenced discussions he had with right-hander Aaron Nola’s representation in conversation with Tom Ackerman of KMOX, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that the club’s interest in Nola never reached the point where the club met with the right-hander or made a formal offer prior to him re-signing with the Phillies earlier today. Though Goold notes that other NL clubs were “actively engaged” in attempting to lure Nola away from Philadelphia, he adds that the Cardinals were not among them, despite indications earlier in the offseason that the club would be interested in Nola’s services this winter. While Nola is now off the market, he’s far from the only top-of-the-market pitching free agent the Cardinals have been connected to this offseason, Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray has been connected to St. Louis multiple times so far this offseason, while the club also has reported interested in NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a potential reunion with southpaw Jordan Montgomery.
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