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Spencer Turnbull

East Notes: Phillies, Wood, Means

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Phillies right-hander Taijuan Walker began the 2024 campaign on the injured list due to a shoulder issue, but he’s making good progress en route to a return to action. As noted by Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer, club manager Rob Thomson told reporters recently that Walker would begin his rehab assignment with the club’s Single-A affiliate in Clearwater, Florida this week. That first rehab outing occurred Thursday night, with Walker allowing two runs over four innings of work while striking out four and walking none.

Per Thomson, that start was the first of what is expected to be four rehab appearances for Walker before he rejoins the Phillies’ big league roster. Walker’s return to action would seem to spell the end of right-hander Spencer Turnbull’s time in the Philadelphia rotation, likely ticketing him for a long relief role in the club’s bullpen. That may not be the case, however, as Coffey relays that Thomson has indicated that there could be a path for Turnbull to remain in the rotation even after Walker returns, noting that “if he keeps putting up zeroes… that’s tough to remove him from the rotation.”

Turnbull’s certainly done everything he can to justify a regular spot in the rotation to this point in the season. Through his first two appearances with the Phillies, the right-hander has struck out 13 batters in eleven scoreless innings against the Reds and Cardinals, scattering five hits and one walk during that time. While his start today against the Pirates left something to be desired, as he allowed three runs in four innings of work, that still leaves him with a solid 1.80 ERA through three turns in the club’s rotation. While it seems unlikely that Turnbull would bump any of Walker, Ranger Suarez, or Christopher Sanchez to the bullpen (much less co-aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola), Thomson suggested that the club could use Turnbull as a piggyback starter or even utilize a six-man rotation later this season in order to get the right-hander more reps.

More from around the league’s East divisions…

  • Sticking with the NL, the Nationals have not yet broached the subject of a contract extension with top outfield prospect James Wood, according to Stephen Mears of TalkNats.com. Wood, 21, is a consensus top-15 prospect in the game as has carried a phenomenal spring that saw him slash .364/.509/.705 in 22 big league camp games into a strong start to the Triple-A season where he’s hit an even better .441/.558/.794 in his first 43 plate appearances. Given the youngster has not yet even made his major league debut, it’s hardly a shock that the sides haven’t engaged in extension negotiations to this point. On the other hand, its become increasingly common for top talents to sign extensions early on in or even before the start of their big league careers in recent years. Top prospects Jackson Chourio and Colt Keith both signed pre-debut extensions with the Brewers and Tigers respectively, this winter, while star youngsters such as Corbin Carroll and Julio Rodriguez are among those to sign massive extensions prior to reaching even one year of service time in the majors.
  • Looking toward the AL, the Orioles began the 2024 season with their starting rotation at less than full strength due to both right-hander Kyle Bradish and left-hander John Means starting the season on the injured list. Recent reporting has indicated that Bradish is nearing a rehab assignment as he nurses a sprained UCL, and GM Mike Elias indicated this afternoon to reporters (including the Baltimore Banner’s Danielle Allentuck) that Means is even closer to a return to action. Per Elias, Means is scheduled for a fourth rehab appearances next week and could return to the majors before the end of the month. The left-hander pitched to a strong 2.66 ERA in four starts down the stretch last year following his late-season return from Tommy John surgery and figures to slot into the middle of the Baltimore rotation behind Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez upon his return.

Taijuan Walker, Orion Kerkering To Open Season On IL

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March 24: Walker told reporters (including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com) this afternoon that he was diagnosed with a shoulder impingement. He’ll begin the season on the injured list, though he added that rest is the only treatment required and that he hopes his stay on the shelf will be a short one.

March 23: Phillies right-hander Taijuan Walker was scratched from his recent spring start due to shoulder stiffness, manager Rob Thomson told reporters today (including Matt Gelb of The Athletic). Gelb notes that right-hander Spencer Turnbull figures to open the season in the club’s rotation if Walker begins the season on the injured list. Walker isn’t the only Phillies pitcher dealing with injury troubles, as Todd Zolecki of MLB.com adds that right-hander Orion Kerkering is will begin the season on the injured list after missing time this spring due to illness.

The twin injury updates are tough news for Phillies fans. Walker was a solid back-of-the-rotation starter for the club last year with a roughly league average 4.38 ERA and 4.53 FIP, though he was durable enough to make 31 starts for the club last year and post 172 2/3 innings of work. Now, it seems likely that Walker will miss at least the first few weeks of the regular season, though it’s difficult to say how severe his injury is barring further updates from the Phillies.

Taking Walker’s place in the rotation should he begin the season on the shelf figures to be Turnbull, a former second-round pick who spent four years as a mid-to-back of the rotation starter with the Tigers. From his big league debut through the 2021 season,  Turnbull posted a solid 4.25 ERA with an even strong 3.63 FIP. He was limited to just 54 appearances across those four seasons by injuries, however, including Tommy John surgery which limited him to nine starts in 2021 and sidelined him for the entire 2022 season.

Injury woes persisted through his return to the mound in 2023, as Turnbull struggled to a 7.26 ERA and 5.55 FIP across seven starts in the big leagues while battling neck and foot issues that caused a dispute regarding service time between Turnbull and the Tigers. Detroit eventually non-tendered Turnbull, at which point he signed with the Phillies on a big league deal. Turnbull appeared poised to begin the season as a long relief option out of the club’s bullpen, though he’s spent most of his career as a starter to this point and should have minimal trouble adjusting to the change in plans.

As for Kerkering, the soon-to-be 23-year-old right-hander made his major league debut last season, allowing one run in three innings of work while striking out six of the fourteen batters he faced. That impressive cup of coffee earned Kerkering a role on the postseason roster in Philadelphia. He pitched 5 1/3 innings of work during the postseason against the Marlins, Braves, and Diamondbacks, putting together a 3.38 ERA while striking out five and walking three.

Despite his minimal big league experience, Kerkering nonetheless had long been expected to be part of the club’s bullpen mix on Opening Day. That won’t come to fruition, however, as Kerkering will spend at least the first few weeks of the season on the shelf as he continues to prepare for the 2024 season. Kerkering’s absence, along with Turnbull’s likely move from the bullpen to the rotation, creates some level of uncertainty in the Philly bullpen. The Phillies acquired right-hander Zac Houston from the Rays earlier today, and he could join the likes of Connor Brogdon, Kolby Allard, Michael Mercado, and Yunior Marte as possible options for the two bullpen spots previously expected to go to Kerkering and Turnbull.

Note: An earlier version of this post incorrectly stated that Walker had been sent for an MRI on his shoulder. MLBTR regrets the error.

Phillies Sign Spencer Turnbull

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The Phillies announced that they have signed right-hander Spencer Turnbull to a contract. It’s a one-year, $2MM deal, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). Turnbull, a client of the Boras Corporation, can also earn another $2MM in incentives.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Turnbull to earn $2.4MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility, yet the Tigers chose to non-tender the righty in November.  It is fair to assume that the clashes between Turnbull and the Tigers over service time contributed to the club’s decision moreso than his modest price tag, though Turnbull also has a checkered health history coming off what is almost three straight lost seasons.

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has some familiarity with Turnbull, as Dombrowski was still running the Tigers front office when Detroit selected Turnbull in the second round of the 2014 draft.  The righty battled some shoulder problems during his trip up the minor league ladder, but made his MLB debut with 16 1/3 innings in 2018 and then tossed 148 1/3 frames during the 2019 season.  Despite a league-high 17 losses that year, Turnbull had decent enough peripherals that he looked like a potential building block for the rebuilding Tigers.

That potential was further realized when Turnbull posted a 3.46 ERA over 106 2/3 innings in 2020-21.  He pitched well for Detroit during the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, and then his 2021 season was highlighted by a no-hitter on May 18 of that year.  Unfortunately, Turnbull made only three more appearances after his no-no before undergoing Tommy John surgery, which sidelined him for the rest of the 201 season and all of 2022.

Returning to action last year, Turnbull struggled to a 7.26 ERA over seven starts, and he didn’t pitch again the majors after May 6.  He was initially optioned to the minors the next day, though that option was overwritten a week after when Turnbull was placed on the 15-day IL due to neck discomfort.  The right-hander was eventually moved to the 60-day injured list and wasn’t activated until August, when Turnbull was then optioned to Triple-A.

Turnbull wasn’t pleased with the demotion because he was also dealing with foot injury at the time, and the situation was eventually resolved in November when Turnbull was awarded a full year of MLB service time.  He now has five years and 20 days of acknowledged big league service time, and would’ve fallen short of the five-year mark had his appeal for more time hadn’t been granted.  This would have delayed Turnbull’s eventual trip to free agency for another year, as he wouldn’t have had the necessary six full years of eligibility heading into the 2024-25 offseason, though that ended up being something of a moot point after the Tigers non-tendered him.

The 31-year-old will now look for a fresh start in Philadelphia under Dombrowski’s watch once again.  Dombrowski spoke last month about how the Phillies were looking to add depth to their pitching staff, though since the Phils already have a pretty set rotation and bullpen mix, the team was having some difficulty in luring pitchers who wanted more opportunities for innings.  This could explain why the Phillies opted for Turnbull, whose market was lessened given his recent injury woes.

Turnbull, Dylan Covey, Kolby Allard, Nick Nelson, and Max Castillo now project as Philadelphia’s top rotation depth options.  Any of this group could also pitch in the bullpen, and Turnbull has a leg up on the others due to the guaranteed nature of his contract.  Working as a reliever might also present a new career path for Turnbull to explore if starting pitching is no longer in the cards, though it still seems too early for that door to be closed.

Five Non-Tendered Starters To Keep An Eye On This Offseason

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Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline sees club’s allow players under team control to head for the open market early, whether it be due to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a need for additional space on the club’s 40-man roster. The 2023 campaign saw the likes of Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario go on to have strong seasons after being non-tendered the offseason prior, and yesterday we discussed five hitters who were let go by their team’s prior to last week’s non-tender deadline.

While the best pieces among last offseason’s crop of non-tenders were both position players, recent history has offered a handful of arms who went on to provide significant value to teams after being non-tendered earlier in their career, with Kevin Gausman and Taijuan Walker standing as two of the more recent examples. The pair eventually went on to sign multi-year pacts worth $110MM and $72MM, respectively, though it’s anyone’s guess if any of members of this year’s group of non-tendered hurlers will manage to reach those same heights.

This year’s crop of arms won’t benefit from an otherwise weak free agent class the way this year’s hitters will, as the class of free agent starters is deep in potential options, ranging from top-of-the-line aces like Yoshinobu Yamamoto to interesting bounceback candidates like Jack Flaherty and Frankie Montas. Even so, clubs can never have enough starting pitching depth, and each of these arms could at least in theory provide a club with valuable innings in the future if given the chance to do so. Without further ado, let’s take a look at five starters who hit free agency following last week’s non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the offseason. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2024 season in parentheses.

Kolby Allard (26)

Not too long ago, Allard was among the game’s most highly-touted prospects. After being selected fourteenth overall by the Braves in the 2015 draft, Allard was a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport by the time he reached Double-A in 2017. After cruising through that campaign with a 3.18 ERA across 150 innings of work at just 19 years old, Allard got his first taste of big league action with Atlanta in 2018, though his stint in the majors lasted just eight innings. After being traded to the Rangers in 2019, Allard spent parts of three seasons swinging in and out of the Rangers rotation, with a 5.70 ERA and 4.96 FIP in 203 2/3 innings of work.

A failed stint in the bullpen in 2022 led the Rangers to deal Allard back to the Braves in exchange for Jake Odorizzi. Allard missed nearly the entire 2023 campaign with oblique and shoulder issues, leading the Braves to non-tender the lefty. While Allard has struggled to establish himself at the big league level, he’ll pitch next season at just 26 years old and advanced metrics such as xFIP (4.57) and SIERA (4.31) have seen his performance as roughly league average since the start of the 2021 campaign, lending credence to the hope that the lefty could still prove to be a solid back-end starter one day.

Yonny Chirinos (30)

Chirinos began his big league career back in 2018 as a member of the Rays, and was a quality arm for the club in a variety of roles from 2018-20. In those three seasons, the right-hander posted a 3.65 ERA (117 ERA+) and 4.17 FIP while appearing in 47 games (28 starts) and pitching a total of 234 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, Chirinos underwent Tommy John surgery in August of 2020 and didn’t return to the mound until late in the 2022 campaign.

Chirinos struggled in his first full season back from surgery in 2023. Though he posted a decent 4.02 ERA in 62 2/3 innings of work as a swingman for the Rays, his peripherals (including a 5.49 FIP and an 11.8% strikeout rate) indicated his performance had slipped considerably. That led Tampa to part ways with Chirinos, who was ultimately claimed off waivers by the Braves. Chirinos’s results took a turn for the worse in Atlanta, as he was blown up for a 9.27 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work before being placed on the injured list with elbow inflammation. While Chirinos struggled through his first full season back from Tommy John this year, it’s easy to see the right-hander becoming a valuable, versatile depth piece for a contending club again in 2024 if he manages to get healthy.

Dakota Hudson (29)

A first-round selection by the Cardinals in the 2016 draft, Hudson was a quick riser who made his big league debut with the club back in 2018. The groundballer significantly outperformed his peripheral stats early in his career to perform at a mid-rotation level for the Cardinals, with a sterling 3.17 ERA in 241 innings of work 2018-20 despite a 4.74 FIP. Unfortunately, Tommy John surgery cost Hudson almost all of the 2021 season, and upon returning to the Cardinals’ rotation in 2022 his results diminished significantly. In 221 frames since the start of the 2022 campaign, Hudson has posted a 4.64 ERA (88 ERA+) and nearly matching 4.60 FIP as his strikeout rate has dipped to just 13% against a 10% walk rate. That led the Cardinals to non-tender Hudson even in spite of their extreme need for rotation depth headed into 2024.

Brutal as the past two seasons have been for Hudson, it’s worth noting that he still generates grounders at a elite clip; among pitchers with at least 200 innings of work over the past two years, Hudson’s 52.5% groundball rate ranks ninth, sandwiched between Sandy Alcantara and Ranger Suarez. Though the Cardinals were unable to trade Hudson before last week’s non-tender deadline, it’s certainly feasible that a team in need of starting depth could look to take a flier on Hudson’s groundball abilities in hopes they can return him to the form he flashed earlier in his career.

Spencer Turnbull (31)

After being drafted by the Tigers in the second round of the 2014 draft, Turnbull eventually reached the majors for a brief cup of coffee in 2018 before receiving a regular spot in the club’s starting rotation during the 2019 campaign. That rookie campaign saw Turnbull post a 4.61 ERA that was slightly better than league average (103 ERA+) in 148 1/3 innings of work, though his 3.99 FIP hinted at another gear to his performance. After taking a small step forward during the shortened 2020 season (3.97 ERA, 3.49 FIP in 11 starts), Turnbull appeared to put it all together in the 2021 campaign with a 2.88 ERA and 2.97 FIP before his season was cut short after just nine starts by Tommy John surgery.

Turnbull returned in early 2023 and appeared poised to step back into the club’s rotation, but a mix of injuries, under-performance, and a dispute between Turnbull and Detroit brass over service time led to the sides parting ways this offseason with Turnbull having posted a 7.26 ERA over seven starts at the big league level. Despite those brutal numbers, Turnbull is nonetheless among the more interesting bounceback candidates on the open market this offseason given his recent health struggles and the incredible upside he flashed during the 2021 campaign.

Brandon Woodruff (31)

This list wouldn’t be complete without a mention of Woodruff, who has emerged as one of the game’s best starters in recent years. Since his first season as a regular member of the Brewers’ rotation in 2019, Woodruff has dominated to the tune of a 2.93 ERA and 3.10 FIP in 103 starts while collecting two All Star appearances and a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting back in 2021. Woodruff was dominant as ever in 2023, with a 2.28 ERA and a 29.2% strikeout rate this season. Unfortunately, he was dogged by injuries throughout the season and limited to just eleven starts before undergoing shoulder surgery last month.

Unlike the other arms on this list, there are zero questions about Woodruff’s ability, as he’s a consensus front-of-the-rotation arm in terms of pure talent. Despite that, the Brewers made the difficult decision to non-tender him last week due to questions surrounding his availability for the 2024 campaign. It’s unclear if Woodruff will be able to return to the mound at all in 2024 following his surgery, though the right-hander expressed optimism earlier this offseason that he would be able to pitch again sometime next summer. Still, that uncertainty led the Brewers to part ways with the right-hander rather than tender him a contract that MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected to be worth $11.6MM, a hefty sum for a small-market club to commit to a pitcher who might not be available next season. Though Woodruff’s timetable for return is uncertain, he has the potential to be among the most impactful pitchers in the entire free agent class based on his track record over the past several seasons. That combination of risk and tantalizing upside leave Woodruff as one of the most interesting free agents not only on this list but in the offseason’s entire class.

MLBTR Podcast: Aaron Nola, Non-Tenders And The Pace Of The Offseason

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Why is the MLB offseason so slow to get going? The other leagues, most of your top free agents are off the board within a few days. It’s been three weeks since players filed for free agency and nothing. (19:55)
  • Do you think the Dodgers do something major this year or will it be another disappointing offseason for the fans? (23:30)
  • Do you think the Pirates sign Rhys Hoskins or settle for someone cheaper? (26:20)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Top Trade Candidates, Bryce Harper at First Base and the Braves’ Raising Payroll – listen here
  • Top 50 Free Agents Megapod (with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco) – listen here
  • Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow – listen here

Spencer Turnbull Awarded Full Year Of Service For 2023

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Free agent right-hander Spencer Turnbull has been retroactively awarded a full year of service in 2023 despite being on optional assignment from mid-August until the end of the season. The MLB Players Association released a statement from Turnbull on the matter, relayed by Evan Drellich of The Athletic, explaining the issue. “At the time I was optioned in August 2023,” the statement reads, “I was dealing with a foot injury. I raised this with the Club. After further review of my medical condition, the Club has now agreed to reverse the option and I am receiving full major league service for the 2023 season.”

Turnbull, now 31, seemingly butted heads with the Tigers a couple of times in the past year. He was initially optioned to the minors in May but that option was rescinded less than a week later, with Turnbull instead being placed on the major league injured list due to neck discomfort. “After Spencer left the room I got a call from him directly in which he disclosed some neck discomfort,” president of baseball operations Scott Harris said at that time. “As soon as we heard that, we set up an appointment for him with our doctor. We also had him see a specialist out of state. We had those doctors discuss what’s going on with his neck. They confirmed the injury and we placed him on the injured list as of Sunday.”

He was later transferred to the 60-day IL and wasn’t reinstated until the third week of August, when he was promptly optioned to the minors again. Shortly thereafter, reports emerged that the relationship between the pitcher and the club was fraught, with Turnbull referencing a cracked toenail at that time. Turnbull was just non-tendered by the club last week and reports emerged that he had asked to be traded prior to the deadline in early August. But no deal came together and he stayed on the roster until the non-tender last week.

There are multiple issues at play here. Injured players at the big league level are supposed to be placed on the major league injured list and cannot be optioned to the minors when they are hurt. While on the IL, they continue to collect major league service time and pay. With Turnbull optioned for the final month-plus of the season, he finished just shy of five years of service. By now getting that extra option reversed, his service time will go beyond the five-year plateau.

That is important for Turnbull on a couple of fronts. For one, players with more than five years of service can’t be optioned to the minors without their consent. Prior to this ruling, Turnbull was still going to have an option year remaining in 2024, allowing a club to sign him but keep him as depth in the minors in they wanted. That will no longer be on the table. Secondly, if Turnbull eventually spends all of 2024 in the majors or on the IL, he will get beyond six years of service and qualify for free agency again. Prior to today’s change, a club could have theoretically signed him for 2024 and then retained him via arbitration for 2025, since Turnbull would have been just shy of six years in that scenario. All in all, Turnbull has gained some more control over his future than he would have otherwise had.

Prior to the odyssey of being optioned and then landing on the IL and then the second option, Turnbull’s 2023 season began terribly. He made seven starts to begin the campaign and had an ERA of 7.26. That was on the heels of missing the entire 2022 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he had a good run prior to that. From 2019 to 2021, he threw 255 innings with a 4.13 ERA, 21.9% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 50.3% ground ball rate.

Central Notes: Woodruff, Turnbull, Cardinals

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The Brewers parted ways with right-handed ace Brandon Woodruff ahead of the non-tender deadline late last week, making the 30-year-old a free agent for the first time in his career. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic discussed the circumstances under which Woodruff became a free agent and his outlook entering the open market this morning, noting that the Brewers did receive interest from multiple clubs ahead of Friday’s deadline in acquiring Woodruff. The return in such a deal would have been negligible, however, and Rosenthal notes that Milwaukee decided to simply non-tender Woodruff rather than ship him to a team he might not prefer to join in exchange for a minimal return.

Now that the Brewers have allowed Woodruff to hit free agency, Rosenthal notes that the right-hander figures to receive two-year offers on the open market, suggesting that the total guarantee could clock in below the two-year, $30.35MM extension Rays righty Tyler Glasnow inked with the Rays last summer. Though Glasnow was in a somewhat similar situation to Woodruff at the time of the deal, having missed the entire 2022 season to that point due to Tommy John surgery, Glasnow was nearing a return from the procedure when he signed on to a deal that would cover his age-29 and -30 campaigns. Woodruff, by contrast, is expected to miss anywhere between six and eighteen months, per Rosenthal, and would be signing on for his age-31 and -32 campaigns.

More from around MLB’s central divisions…

  • Joining Woodruff on the free agent market after being non-tendered by the Tigers is right-hander Spencer Turnbull. Per Chris McCosky of The Detroit News, president of baseball operations tried to trade Turnbull ahead of Friday’s non-tender deadline but was unable to find any takers. The decision to non-tender Turnbull, McCosky notes, comes after a long-running saga of issues between the club’s decision to option Turnbull to Triple-A back in May (a move that was later rescinded due to an at-the-time undisclosed neck injury) and subsequent decision to option him a second time in August while he was working his way back from the neck injury and subsequent toe issue. Tensions between the sides got to the point that McCosky notes Turnbull requested a trade ahead of the trade deadline on August 1 this past summer, though of course no deal wound up occurring back then. Now a free agent, Turnbull figures to be among the more interesting rebound candidates on the rotation market this offseason, given his flashes of success from 2020-21 when he posted a 3.46 ERA and 3.24 FIP across 20 starts.
  • While the Cardinals are known to be in the market for multiple starting pitchers and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak referenced discussions he had with right-hander Aaron Nola’s representation in conversation with Tom Ackerman of KMOX, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that the club’s interest in Nola never reached the point where the club met with the right-hander or made a formal offer prior to him re-signing with the Phillies earlier today. Though Goold notes that other NL clubs were “actively engaged” in attempting to lure Nola away from Philadelphia, he adds that the Cardinals were not among them, despite indications earlier in the offseason that the club would be interested in Nola’s services this winter. While Nola is now off the market, he’s far from the only top-of-the-market pitching free agent the Cardinals have been connected to this offseason, Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray has been connected to St. Louis multiple times so far this offseason, while the club also has reported interested in NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a potential reunion with southpaw Jordan Montgomery.

Tigers Non-Tender Austin Meadows, Spencer Turnbull

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The Tigers announced this evening that they have non-tendered outfielder Austin Meadows and right-hander Spencer Turnbull. Right-handers Brenan Hanifee, Garrett Hill, and Freddy Pacheco were all non-tendered as well. All five players will now hit the open market as free agents.

The decision to non-tender Meadows is hardly a surprise. While the former ninth-overall pick sports a career slash line of .259/.333/.472 over the past six years between his time with the Pirates, Rays, and Tigers, the 28-year-old has only rarely been able to take the field since arriving in Detroit. He played just 36 games in 2022 before being sidelined by vertigo, and in 2023 was placed on the injured list due to anxiety after six games before departing from the team in June.

Given his inability to stay on the field during his Tigers career, it’s hardly a surprise the club decided to non-tender Meadows rather than pay him the $4.3MM MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected he could earn in his final trip through arbitration this season. That’s an especially reasonable decision given the club’s deep outfield mix that includes the likes of Riley Greene, Mark Canha, Akil Baddoo, Kerry Carpenter, and Austin’s brother Parker Meadows.

That being said, if Meadows is healthy and ready to go for the 2024 season he could prove to be among the most interesting bats available on the open market this offseason. After all, Meadows won’t celebrate his 29th birthday until May and was one of the best hitters in the sport as recently as 2019, when he slashed .291/.364/.558 in 591 trips to the plate for Tampa en route to his first career All Star appearance and a 14th-place finish in AL MVP voting. In a class of free agent hitters that has few surefire, quality bats beyond top of the market stars Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger, Meadows could be an interesting buy-low candidate for clubs with a need in left field or at DH.

Turnbull’s non-tender, on the other hand, is something of a shock. Just last month, president of baseball operations noted that he expected Turnbull to compete for a spot in the club’s starting rotation this spring, seemingly suggesting that the club would tender the right-hander a contract at a projected $2.4MM. Turnbull made just seven starts in the big leagues due to injury this year, struggling to a 7.26 ERA and 5.55 FIP across 31 innings of work. It was his first time on a professional mound since undergoing Tommy John surgery early in the 2021 campaign.

Prior to Turnbull’s health issues, he looked like a budding mid-rotation or better starter with a 3.46 ERA and 3.24 FIP with a 21.4% strikeout rate across 106 2/3 innings (20 starts) between 2020 and 2021. Though he struggled badly both in the majors and at the Triple-A level in 2023, it seemed reasonable to expect Turnbull to be tendered by the Tigers this year, particularly given Harris’s previous comments. Now a free agent, Turnbull figures to be an attractive low-cost depth option for rotation-needy clubs this offseason given the considerable upside he flashed as recently as two years ago.

That being said, it’s worth noting that reports from earlier in the season indicated that the relationship between Turnbull and the Tigers began to fray this year after the Tigers attempted to option the right-hander to Triple-A early in the season, prompting Turnbull to disclose neck discomfort that ultimately resulted in him being placed on the injured list instead. The Tigers ultimately activated Turnbull from the injured list and optioned him to the minors in August, just six days before he would reach five years of MLB service time. The move ultimately delayed Turnbull’s free agency from after the 2024 campaign until after the 2025 campaign. Given the frayed relationship between club and player, it’s more understandable that the sides have decided to part ways.

As for the other three righties non-tendered by Detroit this evening, both Pacheco and Hanifee had already been designated for assignment by the Tigers earlier this week, making the decision to non-tender the pair little more than a formality. Pacheco has not yet appeared in the major leagues in his career and underwent elbow surgery back in June, while Hanifee posted a 5.40 ERA in five innings of work with the Tigers this year. Hill, by contrast, is the most established of the three at the big league level with 76 total innings in the big leagues over the past two seasons. While he pitched decently as a swing option for Detroit in 2022 with a 4.03 ERA in 60 1/3 innings, Hill’s nine appearances out of the bullpen this season were nothing short of disastrous with a 9.19 ERA in 15 2/3 innings of work.

Scott Harris, A.J. Hinch Discuss Tigers’ Offseason Plans

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Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris and manager A.J. Hinch addressed the media on Monday (including Evan Woodberry of MLive Media Group) to discuss the offseason ahead. Topics on the table included Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Baez, each of whom has an opt-out after the 2023 season; Carson Kelly, who has a club option for 2024; and Austin Meadows and Spencer Turnbull, who will both be eligible for arbitration this winter. Harris also touched on how much the team plans to spend in free agency, while Hinch praised his coaching staff without promising that everyone would be back next season.

Rodriguez has three years and $49MM remaining on his contract, but he is likely to exercise his opt-out clause after the World Series. The lefty won’t turn 31 until next April, and he’s coming off a strong season in which he pitched to a 3.30 ERA in 26 starts. While he spent June on the injured list and wasn’t quite as imposing upon his return (4.24 ERA in 15 starts), he still looked like a solid mid-rotation pitcher throughout the second half of the season. That being the case, he should be able to command significantly more than $49MM this winter.

Speaking on Rodriguez, Harris said he isn’t planning to negotiate an extension with the veteran starter. The team will wait and see if he chooses to exercise his opt-out.

On the one hand, if the Tigers want Rodriguez back in the rotation next season, now would be the perfect time to discuss a new deal. The club has exclusive negotiating rights until he elects free agency, giving them a head start on other potential suitors. As a dependable left-handed starter, Rodriguez will certainly draw plenty of interest – especially because he is ineligible to receive the qualifying offer, having already received one in 2021. On the other hand, perhaps the team is hoping Rodriguez will decide not to exercise his opt-out after all. He chose to stay in Detroit at the trade deadline instead of accepting a trade to the Dodgers, citing a desire to stay closer to his family. It’s more than possible he’s content to stay in a location he likes and avoid the hassle of free agency altogether.

Harris also mentioned Báez, who has the chance to opt out of his contract after the season. The Tigers president isn’t planning to negotiate with the shortstop either, although that comes as less of a surprise. The two-time All-Star has four years and $98MM remaining on his deal, and coming off a season with an OPS below .600, he’s not going to beat that number on the open market. Thus, the chances of him opting out are slim to none.

While Harris is choosing to let Rodriguez and Báez make their decisions before deciding his next move, he will have to make a call about Kelly. The Tigers signed the backstop in August after he was released by the Diamondbacks. Over the final few weeks of the season, he caught 16 games for Detroit, allowing only a single passed ball and throwing out six of 12 would-be base stealers. He slashed .173/.271/.269. The 29-year-old has a $3.5MM club option for the 2024 campaign.

Given Kelly’s unimpressive offensive numbers, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Tigers cut ties with him following the season. After all, they only paid him a prorated portion of the league minimum in 2023, while the D-backs were on the hook for the rest of his $4.275MM guaranteed salary. Then again, Detroit wouldn’t have put the option in his contract if they weren’t going to consider it. Indeed, Harris suggested the team is seriously thinking about keeping Kelly in the fold. “That’s very much an open question for us,” he explained. “We’re going to spend a lot of time on it.”

The Tigers have a capable starting catcher in Jake Rogers, so Kelly would continue to serve as a backup if he returned in 2024. While he isn’t a threat with the bat, he’s a solid defensive catcher with several years of experience in the big leagues. He also comes with a bit more potential than most backup catchers, considering he was once a top-100 prospect.

Two more players Harris discussed were Meadows and Turnbull, both of whom missed the majority of the 2023 campaign. Meadows has been out since early April battling anxiety, while Turnbull hit the IL in May with a neck injury and never made it back to the big league club. The club could non-tender either player this offseason. However, Harris told reporters that he expects Turnbull to compete for a role in the starting rotation next year, which certainly suggests that he is planning to tender the righty a contract. When Turnbull was last fully healthy, he looked like a great starting pitcher, making nine starts and posting a 2.88 ERA in 2021. Harris hopes he can rediscover some of that success in 2024.

Regarding Meadows, the situation is a little more complicated. Without further comment from Meadows or his representatives, there’s no way to know when he could return to the field. Harris says he hasn’t spoken to Meadows in a few months, so he will need to have a conversation with the outfielder before making any further decisions. The executive called such a conversation a “priority.” If the former top prospect remains uncertain about his status for next season, it’s more than possible he could be non-tendered, although as Woodberry notes on Twitter, the team could leave the door open for him to return someday on a minor league deal.

As for potential spending in free agency, Harris didn’t promise any big moves, but he didn’t rule out making some acquisitions. Most importantly, he emphasized that the Tigers aren’t going to buy a core, and any transactions he makes in free agency or on the trade market will be to complement the young players already on the roster. In other words, he isn’t going to try to accelerate his team’s rebuild with a huge signing or a blockbuster trade. Therefore, if the Tigers are to contend in the AL Central next season, it will be thanks to young players like Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson, and Tarik Skubal taking a step forward. Most likely, this means the team’s competitive window won’t open until at least 2025.

In non-player news, Harris spoke about various infrastructure improvements in the works, including new dorms and a covered field, batting cages, and pitching mounds at Lakeland, the spring training locale for the Tigers and the regular season home of team’s Single-A and Rookie Ball affiliates. The team is also building a new training complex in the Dominican Republic and renovating the clubhouse at Comerica Park.

Meanwhile, Hinch reflected on the work his coaching staff did this season, praising their performance. However, he would not say if everyone would return in 2024. This doesn’t mean the Tigers are planning to replace any coaches, but it suggests they’re evaluating the staff and considering various possibilities.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Free Agent Class Preview: Catcher and First Base, Márquez Extension and the Dodgers’ Rotation

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • What can the Tigers do about Spencer Turnbull? (16:45)
  • Will the Athletics change their spending habits after they move to Las Vegas? (22:00)
  • Why is the American League Central always so bad and will that ever change? (25:45)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Waiver Claim Fallout, September Call-Ups and the Biggest Strength of Each Playoff Contender – listen here
  • MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Shohei Ohtani’s Torn UCL, Free Agent Power Rankings and Stephen Strasburg to Retire – listen here
  • The White Sox Fire Their Front Office, Injured Rays and Prospect Promotion Time – listen here
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