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Yoan Moncada

Quick Hits: International Bonuses, Prospects, Analytics, PEDs

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It goes without saying that the international market offers an increasingly important route for organizations to acquire fresh talent. With bonus rules overlaying an already complicated array of interests, and loads of new players entering the picture from Cuba, it’s a situation that is ripe for gamesmanship, as Ben Badler of Baseball America explains. Teams have numerous avenues for shifting bonuses between amateur players, many of whom are largely controlled by handlers who have varied and obscure arrangements with multiple youngsters. That situation creates a complex and sub-optimal set of incentives, per Badler, with “package” arrangements often utilized to get around limitations on spending on a single player. The post qualifies as essential reading in this area of the transactional game.

Here are a few more notable pieces worth a look:

  • Badler also mines the minor league ranks for prospects who have set themselves up for quick promotions. Rangers infielder Andy Ibanez has looked like a strong international investment and is in line to move up from the low A level; highly-touted Red Sox youngsters Andrew Benintendi and Yoan Moncada seem ready for Double-A; and the Phillies have several players clamoring for a step up the ladder, including top prospect J.P. Crawford.
  • Baseball analytics departments have expanded greatly in recent years, as Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur examine at FiveThirtyEight.com. By their tabulations, the number of quantitative-oriented, full-time employees of major league teams has risen from 44 in 2009 all the way to 156 at present. Clubs that moved quickly to build out their teams of analysts have benefited greatly for a relatively meager investment, the study finds. As big-market clubs have increasingly followed their lower-budget competitors, there has been increasing competition for established and entry-level staffers. Interestingly, though, that hasn’t resulted in a reduction in scouting departments; Lindbergh and Arthur write that any downsizing at the professional level “has been more than offset by increased amateur and international coverage.” Unfortunately, women continue to be drastically underrepresented in the analytics and scouting ranks. You’ll certainly want to give this fascinating piece a full read to appreciate it.
  • Bob Nightengale of USA Today looks at the current state of PEDs in baseball, asking whether players who test positive are merely those who choose the wrong people to set their drug regimens. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports also recently addressed the subject, with several prominent players telling him that the use of illicit substances remains a major problem in the game. Improving the current league efforts to stamp out the problem may be less a matter of tweaking the already-significant penalties than it is one of somehow getting ahead of those who are figuring ways around testing. “If there was a type of testing that guaranteed every person that used PEDs would be caught, I would be all for it,” Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw tells Rosenthal. “I don’t think the problem is the length of the suspension, but more the improbability of being caught.”
  • As the Phillies’ new front office reshapes the organization’s approach to analytics, it is seeking to manage the volume of information in a way that optimizes its function, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. “That information can be overwhelming,” says GM Matt Klentak. “There is so much information. The key for our front office and coaching staff and, ultimately, our players is that we’re isolating the information that helps players and coaches in the moment without locking them up.”

Red Sox Notes: Castillo, Sandoval, Shaw, Moncada, Kelly

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Rusney Castillo needs to improve against hard fastballs, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Last season, the Red Sox outfielder hit just .203/.230/.203 against fastballs of 93 mph or harder. The weak performance is doubly damning because the AL East is populated with plenty of hard throwing hurlers. If Castillo can’t figure out how to barrel up more heaters, he’ll find his playing time dwindling. Fortunately, Castillo and the Red Sox aren’t without hope. Speier highlights Jackie Bradley Jr. who went from one of the worst against hard fastballs in 2014 to one of the best in 2015 (.333/.439/.745). The small sample sizes involved along with other factors can complicate the surface level analysis of these numbers.

Here’s more from Boston:

  • Travis Shaw’s hot play this spring is putting pressure on third baseman Pablo Sandoval, writes Ian Browne of MLB.com. Shaw “could be competing for regular at-bats,” per manager John Farrell. Sandoval is more likely to lose time than Hanley Ramirez. Farrell also commented on Sandoval, saying “the work has to translate to performance.” Shaw is expected to spend some time in left field as well, which could put pressure on Castillo instead.
  • Prospect Yoan Moncada is a good test case of the Red Sox position switching protocol, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. While Moncada is unlikely to play much second base at the big league level due to the presence of Dustin Pedroia (just ask Mookie Betts), the club won’t move a prospect to a new position until they prove proficiency at their base spot. That usually occurs at Double- or Triple-A. It’s possible Moncada’s bat will be big league ready by the end of this season, but he still has a number of developmental hurdles to overcome – in part due to the presence of Pedroia. It’s worth noting, Pedroia is signed through 2021 with a limited no trade clause.
  • Throwing more breaking balls may be the key to success for Joe Kelly, writes Sean McAdam of CSN New England. That was the change he made prior to a strong eight start finish to the 2015 season. With Eduardo Rodriguez set to miss the start of the season, Kelly’s success could save the club from being forced to make a trade.

AL East Notes: Rays, Moncada, Jays, Sanchez

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Here’s the latest from around the AL East…

  • The Rays added several veterans to an already-crowded outfield and first base mix, leaving youngsters Mikie Mahtook and Richie Shaffer disappointed but understanding about probable Triple-A assignments, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  It’s not out of the question that a roster spot could open up in the event of an injury or a trade.  The Rays have been rumored as a possible trade partner for teams looking for outfield help, and the club has been shopping first baseman James Loney for much of the winter.
  • Yoan Moncada isn’t likely to be playing his natural second base position with the Red Sox as long as Dustin Pedroia is in Boston, but the Sox want to see Moncada prove himself defensively at his “base position” before shuffling him around the diamond, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes.  Moncada made 23 errors in 71 A-level games at second last season, so there’s certainly still work to be done in that regard, though scouts have long felt Moncada has the athleticism to play third base or the outfield.
  • Several players vying for spots on the Blue Jays roster are out of options, which the Toronto Sun’s Ken Fidlin feels could impact the team’s decisions for Opening Day.  Of the four outfielders (Domonic Brown, Ezequiel Carrera, Darrell Ceciliani, Junior Lake) competing for a backup spot, for instance, Ceciliani is the only one with a minor league option remaining.  The battle for the fifth starter’s job is similarly complicated since Aaron Sanchez, Gavin Floyd and Jesse Chavez are out of options while Drew Hutchison isn’t.
  • The fifth starter competition is further complicated by the fact that Sanchez and Floyd both pitched well in Grapefruit League action today, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes.  The Jays would obviously love to see heralded prospect Sanchez in their rotation, though the team also knows it use Sanchez as a setup man since he thrived in the role last season.  Alternatively, Sanchez could start while Chavez and Floyd go to the bullpen, as Chavez has swingman experience and relief work could be easier on Floyd’s arm given his injury history.
  • Also from the AL East, MLBTR’s Zach Links spoke to Russell Martin about the catcher’s free agent experience last winter.

Prospect Notes: Montas, Rankings, Moncada, Angels

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Dodgers pitcher Frankie Montas is out for two to four months after having rib surgery, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Montas was a key to the Dodgers’ end of the seven-player swap that sent Todd Frazier to the White Sox and prospects to the Dodgers and Reds. Now, it appears Montas will miss a portion of the season. Last year, Montas posted a 2.97 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 112 innings with Double-A Birmingham, also pitching 15 innings in his first exposure to the Majors. Here are more notes on prospects.

  • It’s prospect list season, and this week Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law (1-50, 51-100; subscription required and recommended) published lists of the top 100 prospects in baseball. Both lists feature the Dodgers’ Corey Seager and the Twins’ Byron Buxton at the top, and there’s plenty more agreement in the top ten, with Lucas Giolito (Nationals), Julio Urias (Dodgers), J.P. Crawford (Phillies), Alex Reyes (Cardinals) and Orlando Arcia (Brewers) all figuring in both top tens. From there, though, there’s plenty of divergence — for example, BA rates Yoan Moncada of the Red Sox the third-best prospect in baseball, whereas Law ranks him at No. 17, noting that Moncada might not have the power that was expected of him when the Red Sox signed him last year. Law still projects Moncada will be an above-average everyday player, however. Law is more bullish on another top Red Sox prospect, Rafael Devers, who he says could produce 30 to 35 home runs per season while playing solid defense at third base.
  • Both BA and Law (again, Insider only) also recently published rankings of the best farm systems by organization. The Braves, Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers, Rangers, Rockies, Twins, Red Sox and Pirates all fare well on both lists, and the Braves, Dodgers and Twins have seven players apiece in Law’s top 100. Both BA’s and Law’s rankings feature the same bottom five — the Tigers, Orioles, Mariners, Marlins and Angels. Law says the Angels have “by far the worst system I’ve ever seen,” noting that the Angels have no one who even came close to placing in his top 100.

East Notes: Moncada, Phillies, Orioles

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Signing with the Red Sox and living in the United States has been a series of surprises for Cuban top prospect Yoan Moncada, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes. For example, when Moncada signed, his agent Dave Hastings says he had to explain to his client how taxes worked. “[W]hen he got his check and he knew what he was getting gross because I told him what he was getting. So then the net amount was deposited into his account and he calls my wife up and starts yelling, ’What’s going on?!’ Even though I told him taxes were taken out, he just had no idea,” says Hastings. Moncada has purchased a house down the block from Hastings and his wife, and he’s formed a close bond with them both. Here are a few quick notes from around the East divsions.

  • When the Astros made Mark Appel the top pick in the 2013 draft, the righty was joining the Houston organization with the big-league team in the midst of an 111-loss season. Since then, though, the Astros’ fortunes have changed quickly. Now, Appel sees something similar unfolding with the Phillies, Jim Salisbury writes for Baseball America (subscription only). “This really reminds me of where the Astros were when I got drafted,” Appel said. “I was able to see the turnaround and how quickly it can happen.” If the Phillies do quickly reemerge, it will probably be due in part to recent deals that have returned players like Appel, Vincent Velasquez, Nick Williams, Jake Thompson and Jorge Alfaro.
  • If the Orioles were to sign another free agent who has rejected a qualifying offer, they would lose the No. 14 pick in the upcoming draft. They also have the No. 29 overall pick, for the departure of Wei-Yin Chen; an extra second-round pick, for failing to sign last year’s second-rounder Jonathan Hughes; and a Comp Round B pick. So, theoretically, they could lose the No. 14 overall pick and still have plenty of early-round picks left over. But, as MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski points out, losing the pick would also cut into their bonus pool, leaving them less flexibility to sign players who might require big bonuses. Right now, the Orioles’ projected pool of $10.6MM ranks sixth in the Majors.

Heyman’s Latest: Mattingly, Red Sox, Ozuna, Heyward, Giants, Storen

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The Marlins have interviewed at least five candidates for their managerial opening, but they put their search on hold to wait to see what the future held for Don Mattingly, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman also looks at the Dodgers’ upcoming managerial search, noting that former Padres manager Bud Black, current Dodgers third base coach/former Brewers skipper Ron Roenicke and current Dodgers bench coach Tim Wallach could factor into L.A.’s search for a replacement in addition to early favorite Gabe Kapler. Here are some more highlights from the column…

  • The Braves will pursue bullpen upgrades this winter after their relief corps struggled tremendously in 2015. Presumably, the club could be in the mix for some short-term upgrades that could be flipped come the trade deadline, though I’ll point out that the Braves will probably be better off in 2016 with the returns of Shae Simmons, Chris Withrow and perhaps Daniel Winkler from Tommy John surgery.
  • While the Red Sox are more willing to trade prospects under president Dave Dombrowski than they were under former GM Ben Cherington, the club is said to consider infielder Yoan Moncada, outfielder Andrew Benintendi and right-hander Anderson Espinoza off-limits as it looks to upgrade its pitching staff on the trade market.
  • The White Sox are on the lookout for third base help and will also pursue upgrades behind the plate. Chicago wound up designating Conor Gillaspie, its primary third baseman from 2013 through the first half of 2015, for assignment this summer and trading him to the Angels. Tyler Flowers had a poor second half, although as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted in his Offseason Outlook on the ChiSox, Flowers has worked hard to become an excellent pitch framer, so he does bring some value to the table in that increasingly important element of the game.
  • Some feel that the Reds are going to blow things up and go for a full-on rebuild this winter, though Heyman writes that Brandon Phillips is said to have negative trade value. Considering the fact that Phillips had a decent rebound season at the plate and is still a sound defender whose contract no longer is too burdensome, I wonder if that’s a universal sentiment. While he’s not a bargain, Phillips seems to be at least reasonably priced.
  • The Cardinals will try to re-sign Jason Heyward, but while they could go “a bit beyond” Matt Holliday’s franchise-record $120MM guarantee, Heyward’s camp will insist on topping Jacoby Ellsbury’s $153MM sum and inching as close to $200MM as they can get.
  • The Indians still have interest in Marcell Ozuna, as they reportedly did prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. I mentioned in my Offseason Outlook for Cleveland that a pursuit of Ozuna would make some sense and speculated on a potential match sending Trevor Bauer to Miami. Heyman notes that the Marlins are looking for a frontline pitcher to pair with Jose Fernandez, but history shows us they’re not likely to spend on a top-tier free agent.
  • The Astros, too, are looking for bullpen upgrades. Houston pursued top-end relief talent prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, with GM Jeff Luhnow candidly telling the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich that he’d like to pursue a “flamethrower.”
  • The Twins are expected to pursue a reunion with A.J. Pierzynski, as many have speculated on recently (myself included). Heyman notes that the Braves will probably try to bring Pierzynski back as well. Minnesota also wants Torii Hunter back, but in a reduced role.
  • Starting pitching will be a focus for the Giants, who are interested in Zack Greinke and Mike Leake, Heyman writes. They will also exercise their $5.5MM club option on Nori Aoki, so long as he continues to progress from late-season head injuries that stemmed from being hit in the head by a pair of pitches. San Francisco will decline Marlon Byrd’s $8MM option.
  • The Nationals will try to trade both Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon this winter, though the latter, of course won’t have much of a market due to his personality issues. Storen’s an expensive but talented option, and Heyman opines that he “absolutely has to go.” While I wouldn’t go that far, I’ll admit that it does seem like a change of scenery would be best for all parties involved. I’d imagine a number of teams — the Tigers, Cubs, Astros, Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers, to name a few — would have interest in Storen. Papelbon’s $11MM salary strikes me as nearly impossible to move unless the Nats eat the majority of the deal or take on an even more undesirable contract.

Red Sox Notes: Cueto, Varitek, Moncada

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The Red Sox are “at least considering making a serious push” for Johnny Cueto this offseason, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. As Mastrodonato notes, that isn’t necessarily especially meaningful at this point in the offseason, since the Red Sox are surely as least considering making a run at any number of pitchers. If the Red Sox do give serious consideration to Cueto, Mastrodonato writes, his poor postseason performances in 2013 and this season are part of a mystery they’ll have to solve before they sign him. Here are a couple more quick notes out of Boston.

  • The Mariners have interviewed Jason Varitek for their open managerial job, but if he doesn’t receive it, he will stay in the Red Sox organization, Scott Lauber of the Herald tweets. Varitek currently serves as special assistant to the GM in Boston.
  • A hand injury suffered in instructional league play might keep top prospect Yoan Moncada from playing in the Puerto Rican Winter League, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes. Moncada was hit by a pitch early this month, and the Sox want to be cautious with Moncada. The league is set to begin October 30 and continue through early January. The highly-touted Moncada hit .278/.380/.438 in 363 plate appearances with Class A Greenville in his introduction to American pro ball in 2015.

East Notes: Braves, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees

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As the Braves remake their player personnel asset base, the team continues to make changes in other areas. Atlanta recently announced the hiring of Ted Simmons, Matt Kinzer, and Leon Wurth as MLB scouts. Simmons, an outstanding catcher in his playing days, recently served as a special assistant to the GM with the Mariners. Kinzer was an important Marlins scout, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today notes on Twitter, while Wurth recently finished a 13-year run with the Brewers. Also joining the Braves is former Fangraphs prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel, who’ll become the team’s assistant director of baseball operations.

Here are more notes from the eastern divisions:

  • The Phillies are working hard as they approach a key draft for the organization, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. Philly holds the top pick in next year’s draft, and amateur scouting director Johnny Almaraz is continuing to canvas the crop of talent that will be making the leap to the professional ranks. Almaraz says that the team will be patient and allow players to develop before reaching a final decision. He added that the Phils will also look to be “creative” to take full advantage of their draft position and overall pool money.
  • The Red Sox announced a series of front office promotions today in the scouting arena. Most notably, perhaps, was the bump up of Eddie Romero to VP of international scouting. The team says that the 35-year-old Puerto Rican native has been with the Boston organization since 2006. Romero most recently played an important role in the team’s efforts to sign highly-regarded Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada. And as Ben Badler of Baseball America notes on Twitter, Romero has had a hand in adding several other key prospects as well.
  • While signing a second baseman is an obvious route for the Yankees to take in bolstering their chances in 2016, Chad Jennings of the Lohud Yankees Blog writes that it isn’t quite that simple. If the organization’s recent history is an indication, says Jennings, an in-house route could be more likely than a new signing, and the recently-acquired Dustin Ackley could pair with homegrown Rob Refsnyder, with Jose Pirela also on hand. “I think we have at least some comfort knowing that I have Ref [and] I maybe have Ackley if we get a better feel for what he can provide on the defensive standpoint,” explained GM Brian Cashman. “We have Pirela who had a hell of a year at Triple-A (but) has not really shown that yet at the Major League level. I think we have some candidates here that as we move forward, we can say we have something, unless something presents themselves as being better.”

Prospect Notes: AFL, Morejon, Moncada, Rankings

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The Arizona Fall League kicks off today, and as always there are a number of interesting players participating. Baseball America’s Bill Mitchell previews the action with a closer look at Dodgers righty Jharel Cotton and Astros third baseman J.D. Davis. For a full breakdown of the notable names, check out these videos from BA’s John Manuel and take a look at MLB.com’s Jim Callis preview of the top prospects to watch.

Here are the latest prospect notes from around the game:

  • Young Cuban lefty Adrian Morejon has left the island in search of a deal with a big league club, Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports. The 16-year-old is better compared with traditional July 2 prospects from elsewhere in Latin America than he is to the generally older Cuban prospects we’ve seen in recent years, and Badler says that Morejon is a high-end talent by that measure. His market timing remains to be seen, but he has a chance to be deemed eligible to sign in the current July 2 period based on recent policy precedent, which would potentially make him available to teams that will otherwise begin serving $300K+ signing bans next summer. Morejon’s move could be the latest sign of a potentially growing exodus of younger Cuban talent, Badler notes.
  • The Cubs may have been closer to getting Yoan Moncada than has previously been known, despite the fact that the team was not eligible to sign him last winter. According to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (Twitter links), Chicago asked the budding Cuban star to consider waiting until this July to sign, and even dispatched skipper Joe Maddon to spend a full day with him and his camp. That effort nearly worked, says Sanchez, though obviously Moncada ended up heading to the Red Sox in March. Chicago went on to make a big splash in the international market without Moncada, but somehow managing to land him would’ve been a true coup.
  • Baseball American has wrapped up its series of prospect rankings in each of the minor leagues. Most recently, it covered the best youngsters from the International League, many of whom have already ascended to the majors. You can find all of BA’s league-based rankings here.

Quick Hits: Marlins, Montreal, Moncada, Hamilton

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Thanks in part to revenue sharing, the Marlins remain profitable, and Jeffrey Loria’s fellow owners might take issue with his indecisive and costly approach to building a team, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. The Marlins are now paying two former managers who are still under contract (Mike Redmond and Ozzie Guillen), plus former executives Larry Beinfest and Jim Fleming. They’re also paying former catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia through next season. Meanwhile, their attendance remains poor despite the recent opening of Marlins Park. Here’s more from throughout the game.

  • Redmond’s firing demonstrates the Marlins’ inability to follow a steady course, Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports writes. The manager the Marlins hire tomorrow will be their eighth in the last decade, the others being Jack McKeon, Joe Girardi, Fredi Gonzalez, Edwin Rodriguez, McKeon again, Guillen and Redmond.
  • Montreal mayor Denis Coderre will meet with MLB commissioner Rob Manfred on May 28, and he plans to convey to Manfred the city’s love for baseball, the Associated Press reports. Montreal, of course, hasn’t had a team since the Expos were moved to Washington following the 2004 season. Coderre would like for big-league baseball to return, but it sounds like he expects it will be awhile before that can happen. “I don’t want to negotiate openly, but we’ll clearly talk about Montreal,” he says. “We need a step-by-step approach. You don’t pull the flower to make it grow faster.”
  • The Greenville Drive, the Red Sox’ Class A affiliate, have announced that Yoan Moncada will make his professional debut Monday night, playing second base. The 19-year-old Cuban phenom had been in extended spring training. Red Sox fans will surely be paying close attention to tomorrow’s box score, hoping for hints as to what to expect from Moncada, who officially signed for a $31.5MM bonus in mid-March.
  • Josh Hamilton hasn’t yet joined the Rangers, but he’s happy to be back in the Dallas area on a rehab assignment with Double-A Frisco, Ryan Gerbosi of the Dallas Morning News writes. “It’s been a good reception,” says Hamilton. “It’s been good to hear a little twang in people’s voices and just go out there and it’s just a good feeling.” Hamilton, who has also played a handful of games for Triple-A Round Rock, doubled today in his second game with the RoughRiders and appears close to a return from his shoulder injury.
  • 19-year-old lefty Cionel Perez has left Cuba in search of a deal with a big-league team, but MLB’s registration rules will be an obstacle, Ben Badler of Baseball America writes. (Perez’s departure from Cuba was originally reported by MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez.) Badler notes that Perez isn’t a top-tier prospect, but he has improved his standing lately and had become one of the better pitchers in Cuba before his departure. (Badler notes in a subscriber-only scouting report that Perez is small, at 5-foot-10, but has added velocity lately and is now throwing in the low 90s.) Because Perez was born after September 1, 1995, though, and has not yet registered with the commissioner’s office, he will not be eligible to sign until the international signing period that begins next July. Once he’s eligible, he will be subject to rules regarding international bonus pools.
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