Red Sox Have Shown Interest In Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino
The Red Sox have reached out to the Braves to inquire about ace Julio Teheran and closer Arodys Vizcaino, reports Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link). However, it would appear that the talks are somewhat preliminary in nature, as he adds that there’s no traction between the two sides at this time. In an audio clip from MLB Network Radio, Bowden adds that the problem for the Sox is that Atlanta is interested in the likes of Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi (understandably so — most clubs would ask for those names when potentially dealing their top players), and the Sox are loath to surrender either.
The two sides do, as Bowden points out, make a fairly logical match in terms of a trade. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne noted as much several weeks ago when examining Teheran’s market and trying to find the most reasonable trade partners. Boston has a high volume of top-tier prospects, many of whom are effectively blocked at the Major League level. That’s not the case for Benintendi (left field for the Sox has been a season-long problem), which one would imagine makes it even more difficult for the Red Sox to part with him. But, the Braves are said to want MLB-ready talent in any trade that would send Teheran away, and that’s presumably an even greater point of emphasis in a package that would see Atlanta part with both Teheran and Vizcaino. Benitendi has already spent five weeks at the Double-A level and has recently begun hitting quite well there after some early struggles. It’s not inconceivable that he could be ready to contribute in 2016, and 2017 certainly seems like a realistic expectation.
Both Teheran and Vizcaino make sense as long-term options for the Sox. Teheran is guaranteed about $28MM through the 2019 season, and his contract contains a $12MM club option for the 2020 campaign, at which point he’ll still be just 29 years of age. Vizcaino, meanwhile, is controllable through 2019 by way of arbitration. Both players solve not only 2016 needs for the Sox but represent long-term upgrades. With Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa both slated to depart after 2016, the long-term appeal of Vizcaino, in particular, is easy to see.
From a bigger-picture perspective, the Red Sox’ search for pitching likely won’t be limited to just Atlanta. Boston has received stunningly excellent results from knuckleballer Steven Wright this season, and David Price has improved after a slow start while Rick Porcello has been a solid mid-rotation piece. Beyond that trio, however, the likes of Eduardo Rodriguez, Joe Kelly, Clay Buchholz and Henry Owens have been decidedly ineffective, resulting in a team that ranks 18th in the Majors with a collective 4.53 ERA from its starting pitchers. The bullpen has been better, pitching to a combined 3.56 ERA, but Uehara has struggled this season and Matt Barnes is averaging nearly five walks per nine innings despite a solid 3.21 ERA. Additionally, the team lost one of its top projected bullpen arms when offseason acquisition Carson Smith underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year. Given the lack of traction in talks referenced by the initial report, the Sox may ultimately deem Atlanta’s asking price too steep and venture elsewhere to address their pitching needs, but this figures to be the first of many times that the Sox are connected to this pair of arms as the Aug. 1 non-waiver deadline approaches.
Regarding the Braves, there’s a fairly split camp on whether Teheran should be shopped at all. The entire MLBTR staff recently weighed in on the matter, and no consensus was reached. Similarly, a poll of MLBTR readers within that same roundtable showed that about two thirds of our reader base felt it worthwhile to shop Teheran, whereas the other third felt him valuable of a building block to surrender.
Cafardo’s Latest: RPs, Bautista, Teheran, Shields, Ausmus
This summer’s trade market will favor relief pitchers, not starters, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. While the pool of starters who are expected to be available looks shallow and largely unappealing, the opposite is true in regards to bullpen options. Cafardo points to Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, Arodys Vizcaino, Jeremy Jeffress, Jeanmar Gomez, Sean Doolittle and Will Smith, among many others, as relievers who could be on the move in the next couple months.
Here’s more from Cafardo:
- The 30-27 Blue Jays are in the thick of the playoff race, but if they fall out of it, right fielder Jose Bautista and first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion (both pending free agents) are prime trade candidates. The Cardinals, Cubs and Hunter Pence-less Giants would all have interest in Bautista, according to Cafardo.
- The Red Sox and Braves would match up well in a potential trade involving right-hander Julio Teheran, per Cafardo, who notes that Boston’s package would have to be headlined by outfield prospect Andrew Benintendi, infield prospect Yoan Moncada, third baseman Travis Shaw or catcher/left fielder Blake Swihart. Of that group, the Red Sox would prefer to give up Swihart, though Cafardo doubts he alone would be enough of a return for Teheran.
- Before the Padres traded righty James Shields to the White Sox on Saturday, the Red Sox, Orioles, Tigers and Dodgers expressed interest in acquiring the 34-year-old. Shields’ final start with the Padres – in which he allowed 10 earned runs, eight hits and four walks in 2 2/3 innings on Tuesday – served as a deterrent to some clubs, though, reports Cafardo.
- The 27-28 Tigers aren’t considering replacing third-year manager Brad Ausmus as of now, relays Cafardo. However, given that he’s in a contract year, Ausmus could be managing for his job.
Quick Hits: International Bonuses, Prospects, Analytics, PEDs
It goes without saying that the international market offers an increasingly important route for organizations to acquire fresh talent. With bonus rules overlaying an already complicated array of interests, and loads of new players entering the picture from Cuba, it’s a situation that is ripe for gamesmanship, as Ben Badler of Baseball America explains. Teams have numerous avenues for shifting bonuses between amateur players, many of whom are largely controlled by handlers who have varied and obscure arrangements with multiple youngsters. That situation creates a complex and sub-optimal set of incentives, per Badler, with “package” arrangements often utilized to get around limitations on spending on a single player. The post qualifies as essential reading in this area of the transactional game.
Here are a few more notable pieces worth a look:
- Badler also mines the minor league ranks for prospects who have set themselves up for quick promotions. Rangers infielder Andy Ibanez has looked like a strong international investment and is in line to move up from the low A level; highly-touted Red Sox youngsters Andrew Benintendi and Yoan Moncada seem ready for Double-A; and the Phillies have several players clamoring for a step up the ladder, including top prospect J.P. Crawford.
- Baseball analytics departments have expanded greatly in recent years, as Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur examine at FiveThirtyEight.com. By their tabulations, the number of quantitative-oriented, full-time employees of major league teams has risen from 44 in 2009 all the way to 156 at present. Clubs that moved quickly to build out their teams of analysts have benefited greatly for a relatively meager investment, the study finds. As big-market clubs have increasingly followed their lower-budget competitors, there has been increasing competition for established and entry-level staffers. Interestingly, though, that hasn’t resulted in a reduction in scouting departments; Lindbergh and Arthur write that any downsizing at the professional level “has been more than offset by increased amateur and international coverage.” Unfortunately, women continue to be drastically underrepresented in the analytics and scouting ranks. You’ll certainly want to give this fascinating piece a full read to appreciate it.
- Bob Nightengale of USA Today looks at the current state of PEDs in baseball, asking whether players who test positive are merely those who choose the wrong people to set their drug regimens. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports also recently addressed the subject, with several prominent players telling him that the use of illicit substances remains a major problem in the game. Improving the current league efforts to stamp out the problem may be less a matter of tweaking the already-significant penalties than it is one of somehow getting ahead of those who are figuring ways around testing. “If there was a type of testing that guaranteed every person that used PEDs would be caught, I would be all for it,” Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw tells Rosenthal. “I don’t think the problem is the length of the suspension, but more the improbability of being caught.”
- As the Phillies‘ new front office reshapes the organization’s approach to analytics, it is seeking to manage the volume of information in a way that optimizes its function, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. “That information can be overwhelming,” says GM Matt Klentak. “There is so much information. The key for our front office and coaching staff and, ultimately, our players is that we’re isolating the information that helps players and coaches in the moment without locking them up.”
Red Sox Notes: Castillo, Sandoval, Shaw, Moncada, Kelly
Rusney Castillo needs to improve against hard fastballs, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Last season, the Red Sox outfielder hit just .203/.230/.203 against fastballs of 93 mph or harder. The weak performance is doubly damning because the AL East is populated with plenty of hard throwing hurlers. If Castillo can’t figure out how to barrel up more heaters, he’ll find his playing time dwindling. Fortunately, Castillo and the Red Sox aren’t without hope. Speier highlights Jackie Bradley Jr. who went from one of the worst against hard fastballs in 2014 to one of the best in 2015 (.333/.439/.745). The small sample sizes involved along with other factors can complicate the surface level analysis of these numbers.
Here’s more from Boston:
- Travis Shaw‘s hot play this spring is putting pressure on third baseman Pablo Sandoval, writes Ian Browne of MLB.com. Shaw “could be competing for regular at-bats,” per manager John Farrell. Sandoval is more likely to lose time than Hanley Ramirez. Farrell also commented on Sandoval, saying “the work has to translate to performance.” Shaw is expected to spend some time in left field as well, which could put pressure on Castillo instead.
- Prospect Yoan Moncada is a good test case of the Red Sox position switching protocol, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. While Moncada is unlikely to play much second base at the big league level due to the presence of Dustin Pedroia (just ask Mookie Betts), the club won’t move a prospect to a new position until they prove proficiency at their base spot. That usually occurs at Double- or Triple-A. It’s possible Moncada’s bat will be big league ready by the end of this season, but he still has a number of developmental hurdles to overcome – in part due to the presence of Pedroia. It’s worth noting, Pedroia is signed through 2021 with a limited no trade clause.
- Throwing more breaking balls may be the key to success for Joe Kelly, writes Sean McAdam of CSN New England. That was the change he made prior to a strong eight start finish to the 2015 season. With Eduardo Rodriguez set to miss the start of the season, Kelly’s success could save the club from being forced to make a trade.
AL East Notes: Rays, Moncada, Jays, Sanchez
Here’s the latest from around the AL East…
- The Rays added several veterans to an already-crowded outfield and first base mix, leaving youngsters Mikie Mahtook and Richie Shaffer disappointed but understanding about probable Triple-A assignments, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. It’s not out of the question that a roster spot could open up in the event of an injury or a trade. The Rays have been rumored as a possible trade partner for teams looking for outfield help, and the club has been shopping first baseman James Loney for much of the winter.
- Yoan Moncada isn’t likely to be playing his natural second base position with the Red Sox as long as Dustin Pedroia is in Boston, but the Sox want to see Moncada prove himself defensively at his “base position” before shuffling him around the diamond, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes. Moncada made 23 errors in 71 A-level games at second last season, so there’s certainly still work to be done in that regard, though scouts have long felt Moncada has the athleticism to play third base or the outfield.
- Several players vying for spots on the Blue Jays roster are out of options, which the Toronto Sun’s Ken Fidlin feels could impact the team’s decisions for Opening Day. Of the four outfielders (Domonic Brown, Ezequiel Carrera, Darrell Ceciliani, Junior Lake) competing for a backup spot, for instance, Ceciliani is the only one with a minor league option remaining. The battle for the fifth starter’s job is similarly complicated since Aaron Sanchez, Gavin Floyd and Jesse Chavez are out of options while Drew Hutchison isn’t.
- The fifth starter competition is further complicated by the fact that Sanchez and Floyd both pitched well in Grapefruit League action today, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes. The Jays would obviously love to see heralded prospect Sanchez in their rotation, though the team also knows it use Sanchez as a setup man since he thrived in the role last season. Alternatively, Sanchez could start while Chavez and Floyd go to the bullpen, as Chavez has swingman experience and relief work could be easier on Floyd’s arm given his injury history.
- Also from the AL East, MLBTR’s Zach Links spoke to Russell Martin about the catcher’s free agent experience last winter.
Prospect Notes: Montas, Rankings, Moncada, Angels
Dodgers pitcher Frankie Montas is out for two to four months after having rib surgery, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Montas was a key to the Dodgers’ end of the seven-player swap that sent Todd Frazier to the White Sox and prospects to the Dodgers and Reds. Now, it appears Montas will miss a portion of the season. Last year, Montas posted a 2.97 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 112 innings with Double-A Birmingham, also pitching 15 innings in his first exposure to the Majors. Here are more notes on prospects.
- It’s prospect list season, and this week Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law (1-50, 51-100; subscription required and recommended) published lists of the top 100 prospects in baseball. Both lists feature the Dodgers’ Corey Seager and the Twins’ Byron Buxton at the top, and there’s plenty more agreement in the top ten, with Lucas Giolito (Nationals), Julio Urias (Dodgers), J.P. Crawford (Phillies), Alex Reyes (Cardinals) and Orlando Arcia (Brewers) all figuring in both top tens. From there, though, there’s plenty of divergence — for example, BA rates Yoan Moncada of the Red Sox the third-best prospect in baseball, whereas Law ranks him at No. 17, noting that Moncada might not have the power that was expected of him when the Red Sox signed him last year. Law still projects Moncada will be an above-average everyday player, however. Law is more bullish on another top Red Sox prospect, Rafael Devers, who he says could produce 30 to 35 home runs per season while playing solid defense at third base.
- Both BA and Law (again, Insider only) also recently published rankings of the best farm systems by organization. The Braves, Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers, Rangers, Rockies, Twins, Red Sox and Pirates all fare well on both lists, and the Braves, Dodgers and Twins have seven players apiece in Law’s top 100. Both BA’s and Law’s rankings feature the same bottom five — the Tigers, Orioles, Mariners, Marlins and Angels. Law says the Angels have “by far the worst system I’ve ever seen,” noting that the Angels have no one who even came close to placing in his top 100.
East Notes: Moncada, Phillies, Orioles
Signing with the Red Sox and living in the United States has been a series of surprises for Cuban top prospect Yoan Moncada, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes. For example, when Moncada signed, his agent Dave Hastings says he had to explain to his client how taxes worked. “[W]hen he got his check and he knew what he was getting gross because I told him what he was getting. So then the net amount was deposited into his account and he calls my wife up and starts yelling, ‘What’s going on?!’ Even though I told him taxes were taken out, he just had no idea,” says Hastings. Moncada has purchased a house down the block from Hastings and his wife, and he’s formed a close bond with them both. Here are a few quick notes from around the East divsions.
- When the Astros made Mark Appel the top pick in the 2013 draft, the righty was joining the Houston organization with the big-league team in the midst of an 111-loss season. Since then, though, the Astros’ fortunes have changed quickly. Now, Appel sees something similar unfolding with the Phillies, Jim Salisbury writes for Baseball America (subscription only). “This really reminds me of where the Astros were when I got drafted,” Appel said. “I was able to see the turnaround and how quickly it can happen.” If the Phillies do quickly reemerge, it will probably be due in part to recent deals that have returned players like Appel, Vincent Velasquez, Nick Williams, Jake Thompson and Jorge Alfaro.
- If the Orioles were to sign another free agent who has rejected a qualifying offer, they would lose the No. 14 pick in the upcoming draft. They also have the No. 29 overall pick, for the departure of Wei-Yin Chen; an extra second-round pick, for failing to sign last year’s second-rounder Jonathan Hughes; and a Comp Round B pick. So, theoretically, they could lose the No. 14 overall pick and still have plenty of early-round picks left over. But, as MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski points out, losing the pick would also cut into their bonus pool, leaving them less flexibility to sign players who might require big bonuses. Right now, the Orioles’ projected pool of $10.6MM ranks sixth in the Majors.
Heyman’s Latest: Mattingly, Red Sox, Ozuna, Heyward, Giants, Storen
The Marlins have interviewed at least five candidates for their managerial opening, but they put their search on hold to wait to see what the future held for Don Mattingly, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman also looks at the Dodgers‘ upcoming managerial search, noting that former Padres manager Bud Black, current Dodgers third base coach/former Brewers skipper Ron Roenicke and current Dodgers bench coach Tim Wallach could factor into L.A.’s search for a replacement in addition to early favorite Gabe Kapler. Here are some more highlights from the column…
- The Braves will pursue bullpen upgrades this winter after their relief corps struggled tremendously in 2015. Presumably, the club could be in the mix for some short-term upgrades that could be flipped come the trade deadline, though I’ll point out that the Braves will probably be better off in 2016 with the returns of Shae Simmons, Chris Withrow and perhaps Daniel Winkler from Tommy John surgery.
- While the Red Sox are more willing to trade prospects under president Dave Dombrowski than they were under former GM Ben Cherington, the club is said to consider infielder Yoan Moncada, outfielder Andrew Benintendi and right-hander Anderson Espinoza off-limits as it looks to upgrade its pitching staff on the trade market.
- The White Sox are on the lookout for third base help and will also pursue upgrades behind the plate. Chicago wound up designating Conor Gillaspie, its primary third baseman from 2013 through the first half of 2015, for assignment this summer and trading him to the Angels. Tyler Flowers had a poor second half, although as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted in his Offseason Outlook on the ChiSox, Flowers has worked hard to become an excellent pitch framer, so he does bring some value to the table in that increasingly important element of the game.
- Some feel that the Reds are going to blow things up and go for a full-on rebuild this winter, though Heyman writes that Brandon Phillips is said to have negative trade value. Considering the fact that Phillips had a decent rebound season at the plate and is still a sound defender whose contract no longer is too burdensome, I wonder if that’s a universal sentiment. While he’s not a bargain, Phillips seems to be at least reasonably priced.
- The Cardinals will try to re-sign Jason Heyward, but while they could go “a bit beyond” Matt Holliday’s franchise-record $120MM guarantee, Heyward’s camp will insist on topping Jacoby Ellsbury’s $153MM sum and inching as close to $200MM as they can get.
- The Indians still have interest in Marcell Ozuna, as they reportedly did prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. I mentioned in my Offseason Outlook for Cleveland that a pursuit of Ozuna would make some sense and speculated on a potential match sending Trevor Bauer to Miami. Heyman notes that the Marlins are looking for a frontline pitcher to pair with Jose Fernandez, but history shows us they’re not likely to spend on a top-tier free agent.
- The Astros, too, are looking for bullpen upgrades. Houston pursued top-end relief talent prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, with GM Jeff Luhnow candidly telling the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich that he’d like to pursue a “flamethrower.”
- The Twins are expected to pursue a reunion with A.J. Pierzynski, as many have speculated on recently (myself included). Heyman notes that the Braves will probably try to bring Pierzynski back as well. Minnesota also wants Torii Hunter back, but in a reduced role.
- Starting pitching will be a focus for the Giants, who are interested in Zack Greinke and Mike Leake, Heyman writes. They will also exercise their $5.5MM club option on Nori Aoki, so long as he continues to progress from late-season head injuries that stemmed from being hit in the head by a pair of pitches. San Francisco will decline Marlon Byrd‘s $8MM option.
- The Nationals will try to trade both Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon this winter, though the latter, of course won’t have much of a market due to his personality issues. Storen’s an expensive but talented option, and Heyman opines that he “absolutely has to go.” While I wouldn’t go that far, I’ll admit that it does seem like a change of scenery would be best for all parties involved. I’d imagine a number of teams — the Tigers, Cubs, Astros, Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers, to name a few — would have interest in Storen. Papelbon’s $11MM salary strikes me as nearly impossible to move unless the Nats eat the majority of the deal or take on an even more undesirable contract.
Red Sox Notes: Cueto, Varitek, Moncada
The Red Sox are “at least considering making a serious push” for Johnny Cueto this offseason, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. As Mastrodonato notes, that isn’t necessarily especially meaningful at this point in the offseason, since the Red Sox are surely as least considering making a run at any number of pitchers. If the Red Sox do give serious consideration to Cueto, Mastrodonato writes, his poor postseason performances in 2013 and this season are part of a mystery they’ll have to solve before they sign him. Here are a couple more quick notes out of Boston.
- The Mariners have interviewed Jason Varitek for their open managerial job, but if he doesn’t receive it, he will stay in the Red Sox organization, Scott Lauber of the Herald tweets. Varitek currently serves as special assistant to the GM in Boston.
- A hand injury suffered in instructional league play might keep top prospect Yoan Moncada from playing in the Puerto Rican Winter League, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes. Moncada was hit by a pitch early this month, and the Sox want to be cautious with Moncada. The league is set to begin October 30 and continue through early January. The highly-touted Moncada hit .278/.380/.438 in 363 plate appearances with Class A Greenville in his introduction to American pro ball in 2015.
East Notes: Braves, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees
As the Braves remake their player personnel asset base, the team continues to make changes in other areas. Atlanta recently announced the hiring of Ted Simmons, Matt Kinzer, and Leon Wurth as MLB scouts. Simmons, an outstanding catcher in his playing days, recently served as a special assistant to the GM with the Mariners. Kinzer was an important Marlins scout, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today notes on Twitter, while Wurth recently finished a 13-year run with the Brewers. Also joining the Braves is former Fangraphs prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel, who’ll become the team’s assistant director of baseball operations.
Here are more notes from the eastern divisions:
- The Phillies are working hard as they approach a key draft for the organization, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki writes. Philly holds the top pick in next year’s draft, and amateur scouting director Johnny Almaraz is continuing to canvas the crop of talent that will be making the leap to the professional ranks. Almaraz says that the team will be patient and allow players to develop before reaching a final decision. He added that the Phils will also look to be “creative” to take full advantage of their draft position and overall pool money.
- The Red Sox announced a series of front office promotions today in the scouting arena. Most notably, perhaps, was the bump up of Eddie Romero to VP of international scouting. The team says that the 35-year-old Puerto Rican native has been with the Boston organization since 2006. Romero most recently played an important role in the team’s efforts to sign highly-regarded Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada. And as Ben Badler of Baseball America notes on Twitter, Romero has had a hand in adding several other key prospects as well.
- While signing a second baseman is an obvious route for the Yankees to take in bolstering their chances in 2016, Chad Jennings of the Lohud Yankees Blog writes that it isn’t quite that simple. If the organization’s recent history is an indication, says Jennings, an in-house route could be more likely than a new signing, and the recently-acquired Dustin Ackley could pair with homegrown Rob Refsnyder, with Jose Pirela also on hand. “I think we have at least some comfort knowing that I have Ref [and] I maybe have Ackley if we get a better feel for what he can provide on the defensive standpoint,” explained GM Brian Cashman. “We have Pirela who had a hell of a year at Triple-A (but) has not really shown that yet at the Major League level. I think we have some candidates here that as we move forward, we can say we have something, unless something presents themselves as being better.”