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Yoenis Cespedes

Poll: How Much Will Yoenis Cespedes Get?

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The free agent market has steadily advanced in the new year, but significant names remain. Many of them have drawn divergent opinions at times, perhaps none moreso than Yoenis Cespedes. With reports suggesting that Cespedes is receiving heavy interest, and could soon close in on a deal, it seems like an opportune time to get everyone’s predictions.

In this free agent profile, I broke down his benefits and drawbacks while agreeing with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes that a $140MM guarantee was obtainable. That was in early December, and a seeming market lull made some wonder whether the dollars were drying up. Now, most signings are still coming in at expected values, and the above-cited reports suggest Cespedes won’t need to settle for a pure pillow contract. But will he max out his earning potential?

Opt-outs, options, deferred money, taxes, and the like all weigh in the equation, of course. But those are hard to account for in this sort of exercise, and the bottom-line guarantee is still king.

So, here’s your chance to weigh in:

Quick Hits: Cespedes, Upton, Rays, Rockies

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Here’s the latest from around the league:

  • With Chris Davis off the board, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post looks at the market for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. While Davidoff runs through five of Cespedes’ top suitors, he ultimately concludes that none of them are a perfect fit to offer Cespedes his asking price. Budget or an unwillingness to spend on a right-handed outfielder are barriers with most of the obvious matches. The Tigers are a reasonable dark horse candidate for Cespedes (or Justin Upton) due to owner Mike Illich’s penchant for surprise blockbusters. With his market seemingly growing stale, I wonder if a team like the Phillies could be baited into a bid. They have the money and wouldn’t have to surrender a draft pick to sign him. Preposterous? Probably.
  • The 2016-2017 free agent pool is thin in the outfield, making a one-year deal a viable option for Cespedes and Upton, writes AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Carlos Gomez and Jose Bautista are the top names available, although either player could be re-signed. After the top pair, the market thins out dramatically. Re-entering the market strikes me as an unnecessary risk for Cespedes and Upton. Both players had strong, healthy platform seasons. Cespedes in particular stands to lose out if he’s impatient. He isn’t tied to a qualifying offer, and it’s hard to imagine him improving upon a 6.7 WAR season.
  • Speaking of dark horse buyers, the Rays could jump in the market for a player like Upton, Ian Desmond, Pedro Alvarez, or Steve Pearce, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The Rays are still shopping their starting pitching, but the well-stocked free agent market may prove too tempting. Any free agent addition would require require owner Stuart Sternberg’s approval, but he’s been on board with opportunistic additions in the past. Topkin also lists Marlon Byrd, Justin Morneau, and David Murphy as possible fits. The club would like to get out from under some of the $8MM owed to James Loney.
  • The Rockies have three obvious issues, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. The outfield is crowded by the addition of Gerardo Parra. The club seemingly would like to trade one or more of Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, and Corey Dickerson, presumably to solve their second problem – a lack of pitching depth and talent. The players themselves ask if Saunders if the Rockies will acquire pitching. So far, they’ve sat out the free agent market. The Rays are the most obvious sellers in the trade market. Last but not least, Jose Reyes’ future with the club is completely uncertain. He played poorly after joining the Rockies and currently faces criminal charges and possible jail time in relation to domestic abuse charges. He’s also a suspension candidate under the league’s new domestic violence policy.

More Reactions To And Effects Of The Chris Davis Deal

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Earlier today, we collected a series of reactions to the Orioles’ big re-signing of Chris Davis to a franchise record seven-year, $161MM contract. Here are a few more takes that have piled up throughout the day.

  • The re-signing of Davis is a huge boost to the O’s lineup, writes Richard Justice of MLB.com. It’s about more than his ability to bash 40 to 50 home runs. Davis is among the leaders in hard hit rate as measured by FanGraphs. That was also true in his highly effective 2013 campaign. Hard hit rate not only improves a hitter’s chance to hit a home run, it also help other balls in play to fall. Justice would like the club to find another bat – perhaps Yoenis Cespedes – to support the middle of the lineup. The Orioles were also tied to the Rockies glut of left-handed outfielders. Either Charlie Blackmon or Corey Dickerson would represent a monetarily affordable alternative to add lineup depth.
  • Re-signing Davis was about continuity too, writes Eduardo A Encina of the Baltimore Sun. The O’s have built a good clubhouse culture under manager Buck Showalter. He said, “I think the other thing that [this signing] represents is the continuity we’ve established with our coaching staff and players.” The front office did grow frustrated in their negotiations and nearly walked away as recently as last Thursday. Angelos made one final offer on Friday night, and talks quickly gained momentum. Encina goes on to say Baltimore’s pursuit of Cespedes is over now unless he’s willing to take a two-year deal.
  • Give owner Peter Angelos credit, writes Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun. As has long been reported, he was the driving force in keeping negotiations with Davis alive. While the lineup looks better with Davis, the club still has work to do before finalizing the roster. In particular, Dan Duquette may need to chase pitching on the trade market. Few teams are marketing starters at the moment, with the Rays as the most vocal sellers.
  • Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs wonders if Angelos was willing to accept a higher team budget if Davis re-signed. We often assume teams have relatively fixed budgets, but the reality of the matter is that they can be player dependent. In Angelos’ mind, a team with Davis on the roster might be worth a larger investment than a team with another slugger. It’s tempting to say that the Orioles could have signed X, Y, and Z with that $161MM, but maybe the alternative only involved $90MM to spend.

Reactions To And Effects Of The Chris Davis Deal

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Here are a few early notes and takes on slugger Chris Davis’ new $161MM deal with the Orioles:

  • With Davis back in the fold, the Orioles need to address their rotation, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal writes. The O’s have had contact with Yovani Gallardo, but one sticking point there could be the qualifying offer — the Orioles would have had eight of the top 100 picks in the draft had Davis and Matt Wieters departed, but those players’ returns will reduce their total to six. That number would further drop if they were to sign Gallardo.
  • Before signing Davis, the Orioles had been in talks with Yoenis Cespedes, but Cespedes was seeking even more money than the $161MM Davis got from the O’s, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko tweets. The Orioles reportedly made an offer to Cespedes in the $90MM range.
  • The Davis deal could be “Scott Boras’ most impressive victory over reason yet,” FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron writes. There was a limited market for first basemen and a number of strong hitters left on the market, and Davis’ profile as a slugging, whiff-prone first baseman about to head into his thirties is a very risky one. Also, Davis alone likely won’t push the Orioles into the playoffs next season, and the Orioles don’t seem well positioned for the next few seasons, when they’re likely to reap the most value from his contract.
  • Keith Law of ESPN’s take (Insider-only) is somewhat similar to Cameron’s — Law notes that it seems unlikely that the strikeout-prone Davis will continue to produce at 2015 levels, and adds that few teams who might have been able to spend heavily on Davis had the hole at first base the Orioles did. Law also provides his take on the Royals’ deal with Ian Kennedy, which he also isn’t a fan of, given Kennedy homer-allowing tendencies and his underwhelming overall track record.

Cespedes Has Been Seeking Six-Year Deal Worth Roughly $22MM Annually

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Free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and his representatives at Roc Nation Sports have been seeking a six-year contract that will pay the slugger as much as $22MM annually this offseason, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter).

At present, the Orioles are said to have an offer on the table to Cespedes that is worth in the range of $90MM over five seasons, with a sixth-year option possibly included in that offer. While it’s a sizable sum in a vacuum, that figure is a departure from the expectations that many carried for Cespedes heading into the offseason on the heels of a monstrous .291/.328/.542 season that featured 35 homers and excellent left field defense. The asking price highlights the unlikelihood that Cespedes will alter his course and instead seek a short-term deal, as many teams have seemingly hoped. The Mets are said to have interest on a deal of one to three years in length, and the White Sox were also reported to have interest in a three-year deal for their former division-rival.

If Cespedes is to ultimately decide his best course of action is to enter the open market again next offseason — which I personally find difficult to imagine — one creative alternative would be to pursue a relatively short-term deal with an opt out after the first year of the contract. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and I discussed that scenario for not only Cespedes but also Justin Upton on yesterday’s MLBTR Podcast. A high-annual-value deal of perhaps three years in length with a first-year opt out could prove to be a compromise between Cespedes and interested parties, although I’ll stress again that said scenario is only my own speculation.

Orioles Have Made Offer To Cespedes; Mets Still Interested In Short-Term Deal

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12:47pm: The Mets have not extended a formal offer to Cespedes, tweets Heyman, but do remain interested in pacts of one to three years if he comes off his demands for a longer-term deal.

12:30pm: MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets that Cespedes is believed to be considering both a five-year, $90MM offer (plus a possible option) with the Orioles against a one-year deal with the Mets which would allow him to hit free agency again next winter.

JAN. 15, 11:40am: Jon Heyman tweets that the offer is believed to be for about $90MM over five years and may contain an option for a sixth season. Ghiroli also hears (Twitter link) that there’s a possible option attached to the deal, adding that Camden Yards is appealing to Cespedes. Kubatko adds (Twitter link) that there won’t be an opt-out clause from the Orioles.

JAN. 14, 9:36pm: Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports that the Orioles have increased their interest in Cespedes and are considering an offer worth around $18MM per year.  That would seem to indicate that the Orioles are on the higher end of the range previously listed by Crasnick, although from my vantage point that still seems to be too light to land a player of Cespedes’ caliber. Whether that’s a launching point into deeper negotiations or an offer near the top of Baltimore’s comfort zone remains to be seen, but the team does not appear, at this time, to simply be willing to reallocate the ~$150MM offered to Davis to a pursuit of Cespedes.

6:16pm: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that “it’s believed” that the Orioles are willing to go in the range of five years and $75-90MM for Cespedes at this time. While that’s a sizable sum, it’s also considerably south of the general expectations most had for Cespedes entering the season. Crasnick also tweets that the Orioles are becoming increasingly frustrated with Davis and might even be on the brink of walking away from negotiations entirely.

4:57pm: The Orioles have made an offer to outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, an industry source tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter link), who adds that Baltimore prefers Cespedes to Justin Upton at this time. Per Kubatko, there are no new developments in the seemingly stagnant talks between the Orioles and Chris Davis. MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli tweets that Baltimore’s interest in Cespedes “is high.”

The nature of the offer remains a mystery at this juncture, although given Baltimore’s reported seven-year, $150-154MM offer to Davis, the team clearly has some money to spend this offseason. While many have speculated that Cespedes could eventually change course and seek a short-term deal, that speculation seems largely unfounded; reports yesterday indicated that Cespedes’ camp has no interest in seeking a short-term deal, and as Jeff Todd and I broke down on today’s podcast, players on the level of Cespedes, Upton and Davis typically end up getting paid, even if they linger on the market into late January. For instance, one year ago today, a common narrative was that Max Scherzer didn’t have a market and wouldn’t be able to secure the mammoth contract he sought; on Jan. 22, he signed a $210MM contract with the Nationals. While the outfield market has been slow to develop, the Orioles could potentially be one of the keys to expediting the signing process for the remaining top bats. Representatives of each of the top remaining bats know that Baltimore has money to spend and a need for offense, with at least one corner-outfield hole to fill.

As the two top corner outfield bats remaining on the market, Cespedes and Upton figure to remain linked until one of the duo signs. The pair offers relatively similar skill-sets, though Cespedes offers considerably more defensive upside whereas Upton’s keener eye at the plate leads to an edge in on-base percentage for him. Additionally, Upton is two years younger, but he also comes with draft-pick compensation attached to his name after rejecting a qualifying offer. The same cannot be said for Cespedes, who was of course ineligible to receive a QO after being traded from the Tigers to the Mets this past season.

Outfield Market Notes: Cespedes, CarGo, Cards, Upton

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The prolonged availability of Yoenis Cespedes on the free agent market has apparently drawn some bargain hunters. Jon Heyman reports (links to Twitter) that the Mets and Braves both have had at least some level of interest in an communication with the All-Star outfielder. New York is said to be willing to put together a two or three-year deal, per Heyman, while it’s not clear what Atlanta might be inclined to offer. The White Sox have previously been said to have interest that stops at three years. As I noted in the linked post, a big AAV and an early opt-out could be an interesting scenario, though Cespedes is still likely to exhaust all possibilities of a deal more commensurate with his big-time earning power after an MVP-caliber season.

Here are some more notes on an outfield market that has shown increased movement in recent weeks:

  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Braves would have to move an outfielder in order to sign Cespedes now that Hector Olivera is in the outfield. Moving Ender Inciarte, in theory, could make room for Cespedes as a stopgap of sorts in center field, he further tweets, though Atlanta would need to trade yet another outfielder once Mallex Smith is ready for a look in center (thereby shifting Cespedes to a corner spot).
  • Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports that the Braves do indeed have some interest, though they’re only interested in a short-term pact as well. Bowman notes that even if Cespedes were to get to the point where he considered accepting a one- or two-year deal — an unlikely scenario — Atlanta would need to clear payroll in order to facilitate the acquisition. Asked by one of his Twitter followers about the odds of Atlanta striking a deal with Cespedes, Bowman likened them to the chances of winning the Powerball (Twitter link). While Bowman is clearly having some fun with that tweet, the fact that he is more or less dismissive of the entire notion is telling.
  • Rosenthal also reports (links to Twitter) that the Mets have received no indication from Cespedes’ agents that he’s willing to take a short-term deal. Cespedes remains committed to securing a longer-term deal — a concept to which the Mets have reportedly been averse all offseason long.
  • Several industry sources tell Ken Davidoff of the New York Post that they still expect Cespedes to take down a big contract. He traces the hold-up at the top of the outfield market to the standoff between Chris Davis and the Orioles.
  • Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez has drawn interest from the Orioles, Cardinals, White Sox, and Angels at times this winter, Heyman notes (Twitter links). (The team has also been contacted by the Nationals and Giants, both of which have since added outfielders.) We’ve heard recently, though, that Los Angeles probably can’t take on that kind of salary and has not spoken recently with Colorado. And Heyman says that the “sticking point” with the O’s has been that team’s unwillingness to part with young righty (and Colorado native) Kevin Gausman.
  • FOX Sports has a series of posts today regarding outfielders. Ken Rosenthal and Dave Cameron take opposing sides on the question whether the Cardinals ought to focus on adding an outfield upgrade. Rosenthal explains that the Phillies probably won’t make a value play for Justin Upton, in large part because their second-round pick is a valuable part of a talent-acquisition strategy. And Jon Morosi says that this year’s winter’s market for outfielders has gone in unexpected directions.

Free Agent Notes: Upton, Cespedes, Kennedy, ChiSox, Cardinals

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Few could’ve predicted that Justin Upton’s market would play out so slowly, writes ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick in a lengthy examination of Upton’s journey to the open market. Crasnick notes that Upton is somewhat a victim of borderline unreachable expectations, noting that some view him as a disappointment for being a considerably above-average outfielder as opposed to the generational talent that some hoped for when scouts began raving about him at age 14 and when some outlets compared him to Ken Griffey Jr. as a prospect. Crasnick spoke to executives and Upton’s former skipper, Fredi Gonzalez, with many heaping praise on the 28-year-old — Gonzalez in particular. “He’s been one of my favorite players that I’ve managed in my career,” said Gonzalez. “He shows up at the ballpark every day ready to play. He’s respectful. He knows the game. He’s a great teammate and clubhouse guy. … I’m very surprised that he’s still out there. I think there are a lot of teams missing the boat on him. I really do.” Crasnick also spoke to execs about Upton’s defense, examined his perceived attitude problems as a prospect and also spoke to some in the industry about the potential difficulty of watching his brother struggle alongside him with the Braves and the Padres.

A few more notes on the free-agent market…

  • While many (myself included) have speculated that Chris Davis is holding up the market, to an extent, for the remaining corner bats, ESPN’s Jayson Stark believes that Yoenis Cespedes is holding up the market more than Davis at this point (Twitter link). Some of the slow-moving market for top bats is unrelated to either player, he adds. From my vantage point, with the Orioles focused on Davis but standing as a logical landing spot for either Upton or Cespedes, the argument could be made that Davis is slowing things down. Jeff Todd and I recently discussed as much on the MLBTR Podcast.
  • Jon Heyman tweets that as the starting pitching market continues to narrow, the Royals, Nationals, Astros and Rockies are the most likely landing spots for right-hander Ian Kennedy. However, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding feels differently, tweeting that if the Rockies make a rotation upgrade, it’s going to come via trade rather than a high-priced free agent like Kennedy. The Royals’ spacious park and elite outfield defense would seem, to me, to be an ideal fit for a fly-ball pitcher like Kennedy, while those same fly-ball tendencies and Kennedy’s previous home run troubles make him a poor fit at Coors Field.
  • In his daily Insider-only column (subscription required), ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that there’s a belief around the industry that the White Sox are open to outfield upgrades but don’t want to spend at the levels necessary to land Upton or Cespedes. A second-tier option makes more sense, Olney notes, and while he stops short of speculating on specific names, I’ll add that players such as Dexter Fowler and Austin Jackson could be fits for the South Siders. (Gerardo Parra, too, would’ve made sense but agreed to a three-year pact with the Rockies earlier today.)
  • While many Cardinals fans would like to see the Redbirds enter the market for Cespedes, Upton or another high-profile outfield bat, GM John Mozeliak told MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch that such a scenario isn’t likely. “I know that some people disagree and want us to do something else, but Matt Adams, having [Brandon] Moss, giving [Randal] Grichuk an opportunity to be the everyday center fielder feels right to us,” said Mozeliak. “If we go out and add an outfielder, where are they going to play? Who is not playing? How does that affect us? What does the short-term view look like compared to the long-term commitment? And honestly, we feel very comfortable with what we have.” Langosch writes that St. Louis has been watching the Upton, Cespedes, Fowler and Davis markets from the periphery but would only jump in if the price got to the point where the club felt the opportunity to add value was too good to pass up. Moss, according to Langosch, will get the chance to cement himself as primary option at first base.

AL Central Notes: Tigers, McDonald, Chen, Indians, Twins

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The Tigers have discussed signing a variety of bats in an effort to bolster their production from left field, including Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes and Dexter Fowler, reports Jon Heyman (links to Twitter). Detroit has even talked about Chris Davis and Ian Desmond as possible options in left field, Heyman adds. However, there’s also the possibility that the Tigers simply go a more affordable route, adding a platoon bat such as Ryan Raburn to pair with the left-handed-hitting Anthony Gose. (Raburn represents a highly familiar name for Detroit, as he spent parts of seven seasons in a Tigers uniform.) Any additions made by the Tigers will come down to the financial requirements, Heyman notes, as money is a “real question” for the Tigers. Of course, earlier this winter, owner Mike Ilitch flatly told reporters that he “[doesn’t] care about spending money,” so agents may be hoping to pitch directly to Ilitch as opposed to GM Al Avila, who has preached a more measured approach to spending thus far.

Here’s more from the AL Central…

  • Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press also weighs in on Detroit’s outfield search (Twitter link). Fenech hears that the Tigers would need an impact outfielder to settle for a short-term deal in order for said player to be a realistic option at this point. Raburn, Fenech reports, is indeed in play for the Tigers at this time, however.
  • The Indians have added a pair of recent big leaguers to their player development staff, naming defensive wizard John McDonald their new minor league infield coordinator and lefty Bruce Chen their cultural development coordinator (hat tip: MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, on Twitter). McDonald spent seven seasons playing for the Indians, batting just .229/.268/.305 but playing brilliant defense, as was his calling card over the life of his 16-year career. Chen logged just 6 1/3 innings in an Indians uniform at the end of his career, but the veteran was long praised for his clubhouse demeanor. Chen appeared on the MLBTR Podcast to discuss his retirement as a player last May and was an excellent guest with many fascinating stories for those who are interested.
  • The Royals’ decision to re-sign Alex Gordon is the exact type of move that the Indians should have made (or should still make) this offseason, opines Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Hoynes writes that the Royals have made a statement by exceeding their comfort levels to not only retain Gordon but bring Joakim Soria back into the fold on a three-year contract. Meanwhile, Cleveland has operated on the fringes of the market, adding Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis on one-year deals. Hoynes feels that while ownership has every right to be a bit hesitant after the Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn contracts turned into busts, it’s difficult to construct a team capable of making a deep playoff run with this approach to the offseason. Hoynes argues that Cleveland should be taking advantage of the AL’s top rotation, the league’s second-best bullpen ERA and a markedly improved defense by aggressively pursuing their greatest need: a run-producing outfielder to slot into the middle of the lineup.
  • After years of struggling, the Twins received respectable, albeit unspectacular results from their rotation in 2015 (16th in the Majors in ERA) and now have depth heading into Spring Training, writes MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. Per Bollinger, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson, Phil Hughes and Tyler Duffey can probably be penciled in for rotation spots. Competing for the fifth spot will be Tommy Milone, Trevor May, Ricky Nolasco and top prospect Jose Berrios. While Berrios isn’t expected to open the year in the Majors, he should debut at some point this season, Bollinger notes. He also adds that returning to the rotation is May’s preference, but his excellence in transitioning to a bullpen role out of necessity last season has manager Paul Molitor leaning toward keeping May in the bullpen. Nolasco is still owed $25MM through 2017 and will have every opportunity to earn a rotation job this spring, but he could end up as a very expensive long reliever as well, Bollinger adds.

Cafardo’s Latest: Ramirez, Upton, Gallardo, Chen, Ozuna

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With the recent Hall of Fame voting out of the way, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe looks at the case for former Red Sox star Manny Ramirez. Obviously, his offensive performance was magnificent, although lousy defense sapped his overall value. With confirmed PED violations after the so-called Steroid Era, voters may find it hard to select Ramirez. He also had a prickly reputation with the phrase “Manny being Manny” coming to represent his often oblivious frame of mind.

Here’s more from Cafardo’s column:

  • The Red Sox could consider signing free agent outfielder Justin Upton. Club president Dave Dombrowski is comfortable with a starting outfield of Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, and Rusney Castillo, but there’s certainly risk involved with relying upon Bradley and Castillo. Either or both players could conceivably fail to produce at a league average rate. The Sox do have depth in the form of Chris Young, Brock Holt, and possibly Travis Shaw. However, Upton would give them a superstar presence in the middle of the lineup, and he won’t have the same difficulty in adjusting to left field as Hanley Ramirez.
  • Yovani Gallardo may be the next starting pitcher to sign. Scott Kazmir’s three-year, $48MM contract is a potential comparable. The teams involved in his market are hoping for a bargain on a two- or three-year contract, per Cafardo. He sees the Orioles, Blue Jays, Pirates, Royals, and Cubs as the best fits.
  • Fellow free agent starter Wei-Yin Chen has scared some teams away with a five-year, $100MM asking price. The Nationals and Cardinals “have taken a good hard look.” Chen, 30, can point to success in the always difficult AL East as justification for a nine-figure asking price.
  • Ten teams have inquired about Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna, but Miami coaches Barry Bonds and Don Mattingly are campaigning to keep Ozuna. They believe they can shape Ozuna into a star player. While owner Jeffrey Loria is said to be the impetus behind the club’s attempts to trade Ozuna, it’s also plausible he would defer to his newly hired, high profile personnel.
  • Some scouts still think there’s something left in Ike Davis’ tank. The Mets’ former top prospect has played for three teams over the last two seasons with exactly zero WAR in 666 plate appearances. Davis will likely sign a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training.
  • The Tigers and Mets are monitoring the market for Yoenis Cespedes. Based on Cafardo’s report, it sounds like both clubs hope to pounce if a strong suitor doesn’t emerge.
  • Meanwhile, Dexter Fowler could end up as a bargain. Cafardo predicts a three-year contract below the $31MM signed by Denard Span. He suggests the Rockies (if they make a trade) and Tigers as possible fits. Personally, I disagree with the valuation on Fowler. Like Span, he has a history as a high OBP, top-of-the-order hitter. The draft pick compensation tied to him is a deterrent, but he’s been much healthier than Span in recent seasons.
  • Talks between Chris Davis and the Orioles may have a drop-dead date. While the Orioles prefer a big left-handed bat, they may dip into the market for Upton or Cespedes. Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is also a potential fit.
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