Yusei Kikuchi Hires Boras Corporation
Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi has hired the Boras Corporation to represent him in negotiations with MLB organizations, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). Kikuchi is expected to be posted this fall, though there has yet to be a formal announcement to that effect.
With this news that Kikuchi will join one of the game’s most powerful agencies, it seems easy to presume that he’ll indeed be coming over this fall. While the Seibu Lions have indicated they’ll post him if that’s his wish, the star hurler had expressed at least some uncertainty at the conclusion of the Nippon Professional Baseball season.
Kikuchi represents an intriguing potential wild card on the market. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes wrote in ranking Kikuchi #12 among possible free agents this winter, there’s reason to believe that the southpaw could slot comfortably into the middle of an MLB rotation. That makes him a valuable asset, particularly at just 27 years of age. On the other hand, Kikichi has had some shoulder issues and isn’t reputed to have an arsenal as impressive as those of countrymen Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka.
All things considered, it’s tough to guess at Kikuchi’s true earning power, though we pegged it at six years and $42MM (with Seibu also receiving about $8MM in fees) in our predictions. No doubt, Kikuchi will hope that agent Scott Boras will help find him a robust market and maximize his earnings. Boras has previously represented several players who were seeking to move to the majors, perhaps none more notable or memorable than Daisuke Matsuzaka.
Find up-to-date information on player representation in MLBTR’s Agency Database.
Market Notes: Richards, Kikuchi, Rockies, Realmuto
Our predictions at the top of the free agent market are certainly not for the faint of heart; by our reckoning, both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado have chances at securing record-setting contracts. Whether or not that’ll come to pass remains to be seen, but a more pressing question for hot-stove enthusiasts may be whether we’ll see a repeat of last winter’s agonizingly slow market. It seems fair to say our overall slate of predictions represents a general bet that the activity will pick up this time around. Indeed, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that there’s a broader sense that the 2018-19 offseason will feature action. The player market, he says, could be “robust early” and “awfully busy” all winter long.
We heard earlier about some intriguing possibilities in Cleveland. For the most part, though, things are just starting to get heated up. Here’s some early chatter:
- While Garrett Richards will hit the market while still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, that doesn’t mean he won’t draw strong interest. Indeed, a dozen teams have already reached out, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). It’s no surprise to hear that, as quite a variety of clubs have agreed to two-year contractual arrangements with recovering hurlers in recent seasons, primarily in hopes of capturing value in the second season of the deal. MLBTR predicts that Richards will land a deal right in line with some of those cases.
- The Dodgers factor as a strong possible suitor for Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets. It’s hard to argue with that assessment based upon recent history, even if the Los Angeles club seems to be well on its way to filling out a deep rotation mix. The Dodgers have secured several talented but less-hyped starters from Asia via the posting process and have given out several large deals to pitchers with injury questions. In this case, Kikuchi figures to draw a number of suitors, particularly since he’s just 27 years of age. But recent shoulder woes could be a red flag for some organizations. Truthfully, it’s exceedingly difficult to get a read on his potential market, but the Dodgers are among the west coast organizations that seem to be rather good fits if Kikuch is posted, as seems likely but has yet to be decided conclusively.
- As the offseason gets underway, the Rockies represent a bit of a mystery team. They obviously look to be a contender, but have some clear needs and don’t appear to have much payroll flexibility barring a boost in their spending or clever move to shed salary. GM Jeff Bridich said today, as Nick Groke of The Athletic tweets, that the club will seek to oversee “responsible growth with the payroll,” adding that “success begets more growth.” That seems at least to leave open the possibility that the organization could add some more dollars to the books, though what kind of outlay might be possible remains unclear. Improving a lagging offense is the priority, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes.
- While the Marlins have given prior indication that they hoped to pursue a long-term deal with catcher J.T. Realmuto, his agent shot that idea down rather candidly, indicating that he does not expect his client to don a Marlins uniform in 2019. That hasn’t deterred the Miami brass, though, as Wells Dusenbury of the Sun Sentinel was among those to cover (Twitter links). CEO Derek Jeter rejoined recently that the Miami organization will decide where Realmuto plays. Today, president of baseball operations Michael Hill says that Realmuto’s apparent preferences won’t “impact in any way how we approach our offseason.” Of course, it still seems quite likely that the Marlins will end up marketing Realmuto this winter, as his value has undeniably crested after turning in a strong season with two more arb years left to go.
International Notes: Kikuchi, Gaston, Jimenez
It’s already been reported in Japan that the Seibu Lions intend to post ace left-hander Yusei Kikuchi for Major League teams this offseason, but the pitcher himself said after his team was eliminated from the postseason that he has not yet made a firm decision (link via Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times). “Well, the season just ended,” Kikuchi said. “…Regarding the future, it’s not all up to me. I haven’t had a chance to talk with the team.” Kikuchi, 27, added that he needs to spend time with his family to ponder the decision before making any firm request. Coskrey writes that the Lions have publicly acknowledged that they would honor Kikuchi’s request if he ultimately wishes to be posted. Kikuchi turned in 163 2/3 innings of 3.08 ERA ball with 8.4 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 for the Lions this season. In 1035 1/3 career innings in Japan, the three-time All-Star has a 2.81 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 — including a combined 2.58 ERA over the past four seasons.
If he is posted, Kikuchi would be free of international spending restrictions and could negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs on a contract. The new posting system between MLB and NPB would require Kikuchi’s new team to pay a fee equal to 20 percent of his contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5 percent of his next $25MM and 15 percent of anything beyond that (including incentives, option buyouts, etc.).
A few more notes on the international market…
- The Marlins spent virtually all of their international bonus pool on brothers Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr., meaning right-hander Sandy Gaston almost certainly won’t be joining the Miami organization. Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald reports that Gaston’s camp is seeking a bonus north of $2MM for the 17-year-old flamethrower, with both the Orioles and Rays listed as potential landing spots. Baltimore has a reported sum of near $6.5MM left to spend on international amateurs, while Tampa Bay’s remaining international pool is in the $3.5MM range at present.
- The White Sox have signed infielder Enoy Jimenez, the 17-year-old younger brother of top prospect Eloy Jimenez, reports Ben Badler of Baseball America (via Twitter). Scouting information on the younger Jimenez brother is virtually nonexistent, though it should be noted that the White Sox are barred from spending more than $300K on any international amateur signing due to their pool-shattering $26MM agreement with Luis Robert from the 2016-17 signing period, meaning Enoy couldn’t have received an especially large bonus. That certainly doesn’t mean that Enoy isn’t without upside — many high-profile Latin American players sign for only a few thousand dollars — but whatever the exact amount of the bonus was, it undoubtedly falls well shy of the $2.8MM the Cubs paid to sign Eloy back in 2013.
Seibu Lions To Post Yusei Kikuchi
The Seibu Lions will make left-hander Yusei Kikuchi available this winter via the posting system, according to a report from Sankei Sports (hat tip to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times). The 27-year-old isn’t eligible for full free agency until 2020, but reports from earlier this year indicated that Kikuchi was interested in testing himself in Major League Baseball, and it had been expected that the Seibu Lions would accommodate his request.
Kikuchi immediately becomes one of the most intriguing members of the 2018-19 free agent class, as he has posted strong numbers over eight pro seasons (all with Seibu Lions, apart from five starts in the Australian Baseball League in his rookie year). Kikuchi has a 2.81 ERA, 8.0 K/9, and 2.43 K/BB rate over 1035 1/3 career innings, and particularly stood out after recording a 1.97 ERA and 10.4 K/9 over a career-best 197 2/3 frames in 2017.
Despite taking a bit of a step back results-wise (3.08 ERA, 3.40 K/BB rate, 8.4 K/9) this season, Kikuchi still drew quite a bit of attention from Major League scouts. Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman recently wrote that “most teams have been to Japan to see him this year,” specifically naming the Royals, Padres, Dodgers, and Phillies as interested suitors. Evaluators from the Brewers, Giants, Red Sox, and Rangers also recently watched Kikuchi, as per the Kyodo News’ Jim Allen (Twitter link).
For an idea of what Kikuchi brings to the mound, Fangraphs’ Sung Min Kim provided a scouting report before the season, while MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi had a look at Kikuchi’s 2018 season back in August. Kikuchi has a strong slider and a fastball in the 92-94mph range (that has touched 98mph at its fastest) as his two primary pitches, and he has worked both a changeup and a curveball into his repertoire this season, as former big leaguer and current Rakuten Golden Eagles pitcher Frank Herrmann told Morosi. Herrmann warned that Kikuchi’s slider wasn’t as effective this year as it was in 2017, which led to Kikuchi leaning more heavily on his two secondary pitches. Kim used Patrick Corbin as a partial comp for Kikuchi, as another left-hander with a strong fastball-slider combination, with the caveat that Kikuchi’s usage of the curve roughly 10% of the time is a notable difference between he and the Diamondbacks hurler.
Kikuchi’s durability could also be an issue, as shoulder problems have bothered him at several points during his career, including this season. Kikuchi “had not reached the qualified amount of innings pitched in a season until 2016,” Kim writes. The southpaw is listed at just 6’0″ and 194 pounds, and thus doesn’t have the big frame that would more easily project as capable of handling a regular turn in a Major League rotation, so interested teams could be wary of how Kikuchi would hold up health-wise. That said, with more and more teams using their bullpens in creative ways, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Kikuchi eased the big leagues by pitching receiving an extra day of rest, working on a limited pitch count in starts, or any number of other possible answers if his shoulder is of particular concern.
Kikuchi first appeared on the Major League radar screen back in 2009, when he considered taking the unusual step of signing with an MLB team as an amateur rather than an NPB club. It’s interesting that several of the teams — the Dodgers, Rangers, Red Sox, and Giants — interested in Kikuchi almost a decade ago are still keeping an eye on him now, after he has established himself as a quality starter in Japanese baseball.
There was some thought earlier this year that Kikuchi could land a $100MM contract from a Major League team, though it’s possible that price tag has dropped thanks to the slight dip in form and the shoulder problems that Kikuchi dealt with over the 2018 season. Kikuchi’s age and experience makes him exempt from the international bonus pool system, so he is in line for a very lucrative multi-year contract rather than the limited deal that Shohei Ohtani had to settle for as a 23-year-old last winter.
Kikuchi also looks to be the first major name whose arrival in North American baseball will be covered by the new posting agreement between MLB and NPB. Under the former agreement, Japanese teams would receive a posting fee that maxed out at $20MM, whereas now teams will receive a posting fee that is determined by the size of the contract that the player signs with his new Major League team. Morosi notes that a player must be posted between November 1 and December 5, and the player will have a 30-day window to negotiate with teams after being posted.
International Notes: Rule Changes, Japan, Latin America, Mexico,
MLB has implemented some changes to their international signing rules and regulations, and Ben Badler of Baseball America is right on top of it with the details. Among the most notable rule changes are 1) that amateur players will now be allowed to enter team facilities earlier, specifically 18 months before they become eligible to sign, and 2) teams can pay for travel expenses earlier in the process for all international players. Badler notes that the latter change will affect recruiting in Venezuela. Also outlined in the piece are rule changes that impact international tryout players’ allotted time at team facilities, others that impact showcases, and some that relate to travel expenses. Avid followers of MLB’s international signing process ought to give the piece a full read in order to stay up to speed.
And now some other notes from around the globe…
- While there won’t be a player of Shohei Ohtani‘s caliber coming to MLB from Japan this coming offseason, one impact player could still make his way over. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi writes that left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who currently pitches for the Saitama Seibu Lions, could potentially make himself available through the posting system. There’s a widespread believe that Kikuchi could elevate himself to No. 2 starter status in the major leagues, thanks in part to a 92-94 MPH fastball that can touch 96 at times. Though he’s spent some time on the disabled list this season and seen his command diminish slightly from an otherworldly 2017 campaign, the southpaw would no doubt attract plenty of suitors on the free agent market.
- Back to Badler, who has some details on a budding “Trainer Partnership Program” with Latin America. The movement comes as part of a broader effort to cut down on steroid use from amateur players. Recently, the league held meetings with several of the most prominent trainers in Venezuela and the Dominican Republic. At least 50 have agreed to join the new program, which will serve as a way for MLB to “certify” trainers who have agreed to comply with league standards.
- Yet a third piece from Badler details how the Cubs essentially lost their top 2017 international prospect. At the time Chicago signed right-hander Florencio Serrano for $1.2MM out of Mexico, Baseball America had him ranked as the 29th-best prospect in that international draft class. But MLB didn’t approve the contract, and actually ended up suspending the entire signing system for Mexican players owing in part to technicalities within the international signing restrictions. The piece gives some interesting insight into just how detailed the whole process is, and how even painstaking attention to technicalities can’t always subvert the spirit of the rules.
Quick Hits: Kikuchi, Sugano, BoSox, JBJ, Rangers, D-backs
Japanese starting pitchers Yusei Kikuchi and Tomoyuki Sugano have been garnering attention from major league scouts, according to Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times. Several teams sent representatives to see the left-handed Kikuchi (Seibu Lions) and the right-handed Sugano (Yomiuri Giants) square off last Friday. The belief is that the 26-year-old Kikuchi will be the first of the pair to immigrate to the majors, perhaps as early as the upcoming offseason, per Coskrey. Notably, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported in March that Kikuchi could end up with a contract in the $100MM vicinity if he does head to North America. Kikuchi would be posted, whereas Sugano may have to wait until he becomes an international free agent in 2021 because Yomiuri doesn’t post players, Coskrey explains. By then, he’ll be 32.
Here’s more from around the game:
- In the event the Red Sox upgrade their offense this summer, it will probably come at center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr.‘s expense, Chad Jennings of The Athletic writes (subscription required). For the most part, Boston’s offense is well positioned, Jennings observes, but Bradley hasn’t helped matters with a .184/.280/.301 line in 236 plate appearances. Barring a turnaround, then, he may be head to the bench or even another team via trade. Speculatively, the Red Sox could seek a solid-hitting corner outfielder on the market and have left fielder Andrew Benintendi take over for JBJ in center.
- The Rangers’ Jurickson Profar has easily outperformed teammate Rougned Odor this year. Despite that, the Rangers’ second base job will continue to belong to Odor, in part because of his contract, according to Jeff Wilson of the Star-Telegram. Odor still has four and a half years remaining on the six-year, $49.5MM guarantee he landed prior to 2017, and because of that, it seems Texas would rather have him try to figure things out as its starting second baseman than on its bench or in the minors. That’s not to suggest Odor will keep Profar off the diamond, though, as manager Jeff Banister said that the latter could see action five times a week at second, third and short. Profar may even emerge as the Rangers’ full-time shortstop in 2019 if Elvis Andrus opts out of his contract after this season and leaves as a free agent, Wilson points out.
- Both Diamondbacks outfielder Steven Souza Jr. and right-hander Shelby Miller are progressing in their injury recoveries, according to Richard Morin of AZCentral.com. Souza, out since May 22 with a strained right pectoral, is close to embarking on a rehab assignment. And Miller, who’s working back from May 2017 Tommy John surgery, looked great in his fourth rehab appearance Saturday. Pitching at the Single-A level, Miller threw 81 pitches and struck out 10 (with just three hits allowed and no walks) over 6 1/3 innings. He also saw his fastball top out at 95 mph. It’s not yet clear whether Miller will make another rehab appearance, nor is it known if he’ll work as a starter or in relief upon his return to the majors, manager Torey Lovullo suggested. Regardless, the D-backs are “very encouraged” by his progress, Lovullo said.
Quick Hits: Miller, Kikuchi, Cashner, Cubs
Andrew Miller‘s four-year, $36MM deal with the Yankees from the 2014-15 offseason has become one of the most influential contracts in recent baseball history, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman opines. Miller’s contract set a new standard for non-closer relievers, and its value has only grown in import thanks to the Indians‘ usage of Miller as a multi-inning fireman. As teams have put a focus on deep and flexible bullpens, relievers have been increasingly well-compensated in free agency; even during this unusually slow offseason, several relief arms have scored hefty multi-year commitments. The fact that many notable relievers out-earned several notable sluggers and starting pitchers this winter is of no small concern to Miller, who is also a Players Association Representative. “We have to understand the economics of how this works. If one position or one skill is valued more highly, you probably will have another skill valued not as highly,” Miller noted.
Some more from around the baseball world as we head into a new week…
- Seibu Lions left-hander Yusei Kikuchi has continued to express interest in a jump to Major League Baseball, with some in the industry feeling that the 26-year-old could land close to a $100MM deal from a North American team, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin writes (subscription required). Kikuchi has a 2.76 ERA, 8.0 K/9 and a 2.30 K/BB rate over 871 2/3 innings for Seibu (plus a brief stint in the Australian Baseball League in his rookie year). Since Kikuchi is older than 25, he is exempt from the international bonus pool system, and he should command a hefty contract from teams bidding for his services should Seibu decide to post him — Kikuchi isn’t eligible for complete free agency until 2020.
- Andrew Cashner wouldn’t have signed his two-year, $16MM deal with the Orioles unless he was allowed to keep his beard, Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun reports. The O’s usually have a ban on facial hair (besides “a well-manicured goatee”) but an exemption was made for Cashner, provided that he keeps his beard neatly trimmed. “I just think it’s a part of who I am, and it’s a part of my personality — it’s just me. I think this length is kind of what it’s supposed to be, I guess,” Cashner said, who noted that he disliked having to shave his beard when he played for the Marlins, another club with a facial hair ban.
- The Cubs are probably done their major offseason shopping, The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney writes (subscription required), as the team is likely to save its remaining money for potential in-season additions. By Mooney’s calculations, Chicago has roughly $13MM left for the trade deadline without going over the $197MM luxury tax threshold.
Quick Hits: Asia Prospects, Former Prospects, DL Usage
Fangraphs analysis is as sharp and poignant as ever, providing deep looks into a number of interesting subjects over the past few days. Among those pieces is one by Sung Min Kim, who offers detailed scouting reports on six MLB prospects currently playing in Asia. The list is limited to players who would be available to leave Asia in the next three years; players on the list have also either expressed interest in coming to MLB or not publicly refuted the possibility. Among these six players is Yusei Kikuchi, a lefty fireballer who has openly expressed a strong desire to play in MLB (Kim compares him to Patrick Corbin). Another interesting name on the list is outfielder Po-Jung Wang of the Chinese Professional Baseball League; he’s won two MVPs and put up a .407/.491/.700 slash line in the CPBL. Anyone interested in tracking baseball players who might transition from Asia leagues to MLB should certainly give this list a thorough read.
A couple of other interesting articles from Fangraphs…
- Eric Longenhagen did some scouting of his own for his latest piece, though he focused on players who have already cracked a major-league roster. Specifically, Longenhagen has notes on twelve players who have already graduated from prospect status but have somewhat uncertain futures and only a small sample size of MLB playing time to draw from. Astros righty Francis Martes, for example, is described as a player who is “athletic enough to merit command projection in the minors, but we haven’t seen him need to work efficiently for a while because he was bullpen’d last year.” New Cardinals addition Miles Mikolas is said to have improved command after a stint in Japan, and currently profiles as a solid fourth starter. The list has some interesting names who haven’t been frequently covered, and can provide avid fans with a few intriguing storylines to follow for the coming season.
- Many aspects of MLB gameplay are changing at a rapid pace. One of the more extreme examples is DL usage, which Travis Sawchik covered recently. Last year’s switch from a 15-day DL to a 10-day DL resulted in a record number of DL stints, as predicted. Clubs like the Dodgers used it aggressively as a roster manipulation tool, making it “something of a revolving, de facto 26th-man roster spot.” Sawchik expects that we’ll see an increase in the number of DL stints once again next year. He also notes that even with the five-day reduction from 15 to 10, there was only a marginal decrease in the total number of days players spent on the DL last season, which perhaps implies that players overall were not very healthy in 2017.
Odds & Ends: Chapman, Cubs, Holliday, Damon
Links for Saturday afternoon …
- Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News spoke with a baseball executive who believes the Yankees will wind up with Aroldis Chapman. "My bet is that it'll come down to the Yankees and Red Sox, like it always does…" said the executive. "And I think the Yankees will get him. They can give him a big-league contract over five years for $20 million and they don't even feel that."
- The NY Post's Bart Hubbuch reports that the rumored three-way deal involving Milton Bradley, Kevin Millwood and Luis Castillo "isn't happening because the Rangers aren't interested in giving up Millwood so easily." He also mentions that the Mets aren't expected to make any majors moves until the Winter Meetings in two weeks.
- Paul Sullivan at The Chicago Tribune rounds up some Cubs' rumors all in one convenient spot, just like our Cubs archive.
- Meanwhile, Phil Rogers of The Chicago Tribune posted his projections on where some notable free agents will land. He sees Matt Holliday signing with Boston, while both Jason Bay and John Lackey land with the Angels.
- Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post Dispatch notes that the market for Holliday is diminished because officials from the Angels and Giants said they "would not be vying" for his services.
- The Yankees' biggest focus right now is finding a "common ground" with Johnny Damon, according to Newsday's Ken Davidoff. Hideki Matsui seems to be less of a priority.
- Larry LaRue of The News Tribune says that the Josh Johnson situation in Florida represents the worst-case scenario for the Mariners and Felix Hernandez.
- Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker passes along a report that says Yusei Kikuchi has inked his first pro contract with the Seibu Lions. Kikuchi will not be eligible for international free agency for at least nine years, though Seibu could make him available through the posting process before that.
Odds & Ends: Kikuchi, Astros, Smoltz, Hermida
Some links to read for Thursday morning…
- The AP reports (via the Miami Herald) that the Seibu Lions won the rights to negotiate with top Japanese amateur Yusei Kikuchi.
- Another top young pitcher, Stephen Strasburg, hit 100 mph repeatedly in his third AFL start, according to ESPN.com's Jason Grey.
- Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle says fans and media members need to hold Astros owner Drayton McLane accountable, and says it wasn't GM Ed Wade's fault that managerial candidate Manny Acta signed with the Indians.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hears that the Cardinals still have interest in bringing John Smoltz back next year, perhaps as the team's fourth starter. The club seems likely to find a fifth starter within the organization.
- The Pirates and Reds will swap A ball affiliates next year, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
- Padres GM Jed Hoyer offered contracts to all of the organization's scouts and player development personnel, according to Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
- R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs expects Tim Hudson to be worth the extension he's expected to sign.
- MLB.com's Joe Frisaro lists the Blue Jays, Mariners, Rays and Mets as possible destinations for Jeremy Hermida. The Marlins may trade the outfielder, who should hit free agency after 2011.