Astros Notes: Kikuchi, Abreu, Goldschmidt
Here’s the latest from Houston…
- It doesn’t appear as if the Astros will make a push for Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan reports (subscription required). Such teams as the Phillies, Yankees, Giants, Dodgers, Rangers, Mariners, and Padres have been linked to Kikuchi’s services, though there has been speculation that the teams on the west coast may have a bit of an advantage due to geography.
- Also from Kaplan’s piece, he details the Astros’ most notable needs heading into the Winter Meetings, namely another starting pitcher and another bat, preferably a left-handed hitter for lineup-balance purposes. (Though GM Jeff Luhnow has said of his hitter search, “We’re not going to be wed to it having to be a lefty or a righty or having it be a specific position.“) Listing a few speculative names who could be potential fits for the Astros, Kaplan opines that Robbie Ray, Michael Brantley, Jose Martinez, Daniel Murphy, or Nelson Cruz could all be possible trade or free agent targets.
- The Astros have been in touch with the White Sox about Jose Abreu, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports. Abreu has been on Houston’s radar before, including at last year’s trade deadline. Latest reports suggest that the Sox may not part with Abreu in the offseason (if at all) since they’d be selling low in the wake of a somewhat disappointing season for the first baseman. Abreu hit .265/.325/.473 with 22 homers over 553 PA for Chicago in 2018, a marked dropoff from the .883 OPS he posted over his first four Major League seasons.
- Speaking of first base targets, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link) that the Astros included pitching prospects Cionel Perez and J.B. Bukauskas in talks with the Diamondbacks about Paul Goldschmidt, before Arizona sent Goldschmidt to the Cardinals. MLB.com ranks Perez and Bukauskas 5th and 8th, respectively, in their list of the top 30 prospects in Houston’s farm system, though it could be argued that neither were in the Astros’ true upper tier of young arms. Forrest Whitley, for instance, is a consensus top-10 prospect in baseball, while MLB.com also had Josh James ahead of Perez and Bukauskas in their ranking. Bukauskas cracked the preseason top-100 prospect lists from MLB.com and Baseball America, though an injury-shortened 2018 season dimmed his ranking and recent reports suggested that the Astros may be using Bukauskas as a trade chip. Perez, a 22-year-old southpaw from Cuba, made his MLB debut last season, though between he and Bukauskas, they didn’t have the Major League readiness that St. Louis offered the D’Backs (namely Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly) for Goldschmidt. Still, the Astros’ apparent willingness to give up two controllable young arms for premium talent is an interesting hint about how far they’ll go to make a significant hitting upgrade.
AL Notes: Rays, Tigers, Angels, Mariners
The Tampa Bay Rays have money to spend and an uncharacteristic willingness to entertain higher profile free agents like designated hitter Nelson Cruz this offseason. The front office, however, does not feel any particular urgency to spend that nest egg. Working on a rolling five-year budget, the Rays won’t be shy about pushing this payroll space over to next season or later if they can’t get the players they want at a reasonable price, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Topkin pegs their current payroll at a meager $32MM (roster resource estimates closer to $37MM), more than enough space for additions even before reaching last season’s payroll number of $76MM. Still, their 90-win 2018 was an incredible achievement in part because of the large number of pre-arbitration players on the roster, but those same players won’t be inexpensive forever. Hence the willingness of the Rays front office to bank any remaining funds for future seasons if they don’t like the prices in free agency.
Speculatively speaking, that could point to contract extensions for pre-arb players like those they signed with Evan Longoria and Matt Moore in the past, or it could simply be language intended to prime their expectant fanbase for the eventuality of a disappointing winter. With the possibility of a splashy free agent signing on the table for the first time in a long time, the Rays are surely aware of the excitement forming around this offseason.
Some more notes from around the American League as teams prepare for tomorrow’s winter meetings…
- Speaking of Matt Moore, he and the Tigers found something in common: they both viewed Moore as a starting pitcher. He came out of the bullpen for much of last season, working to a 6.79 ERA over 102 innings (12 starts) for the Rangers, Moore’s primary motivation in choosing a new home in free agency was finding an opportunity to get back into a starting rotation, where he is most comfortable, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. The Tigers signed Moore to a one-year, $2.5MM deal with incentives up to $1MM more based on the number of starts he makes. Both sides are incentivized to turn Moore back into a serviceable rotation arm, Moore for his own sake, and the Tigers because he’ll be a more attractive trade chip as a starter.
- The Angels have mostly tinkered around the edges of their major league roster thus far this offseason in acquiring Tommy La Stella, Dillon Peters and Peter Bourjos, among others, but pitching remains their biggest area of need as GM Billy Eppler heads to Las Vegas for the winter meetings, per MLB.com’s Maria Guardado. It’s been addition by subtraction with the non-tenders of Matt Shoemaker and Blake Parker, freeing up additional funds in an effort to add durable arms to their pitching staff. With an Opening Day payroll that usually comes in at around $165MM, the Angels have at least $20MM and maybe as much as $30MM to build a winner around Mike Trout this winter. Fancred’s Jon Heyman names Marwin Gonzalez and Joakim Soria as two potential targets, though both players are sure to have their share of bidders.
- The Mariners may not be done shedding veteran contracts, per TJ Cotterill of the News Tribune. Nobody expects GM Jerry Dipoto to stop dealing, of course, as baseball’s most active GM has already made six trades this offseason. With the return in these deals leaning towards youth, Dipoto suggests the prospects imported this winter has transformed the Mariners’ farm into a top-10 system, but not everyone is equally optimistic, writes Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, who takes a look at the new Seattle youngsters. Heyman suggests they’ll be in on Japanese free agent Yusei Kikuchi, but the bullpen is the larger area of need, as tumbleweeds now populate a pen that has recently expelled Edwin Diaz, James Pazos, Alex Colome and Juan Nicasio.
Trade/Free Agent Rumors: Mariners, Brantley, Kepler, Kikuchi
While fans, pundits and other teams all try to parse the Mariners‘ flurry of offseason moves, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto chatted with Fancred’s Jon Heyman and made a few definitive statements. Dipoto went on the record to indicate that the Mariners won’t be adding star right fielder Mitch Haniger to any trades as a means of persuading another team to take on a bad contract, nor will Seattle give any consideration to the thought of releasing Felix Hernandez this offseason, as some have speculated. Dipoto says there’s “zero” chance the Mariners would release King Felix this winter, adding that “out of respect to the career he’s had he deserves the opportunity” to right the ship in 2019. Heyman suggests that any of Ryon Healy, Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak or Mike Leake could be the next to go as the Mariners look to further reshape the organization.
Some more rumblings on both the trade and free-agent markets…
- Michael Brantley‘s agents are telling interested teams that the left fielder is willing to play some first base next season, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Brantley hasn’t played the position since a brief crash course there in the minors back in ’08, and no club is looking at him as a regular at first, Rosenthal notes. That said, Brantley’s willingness to play a new position won’t make him any less appealing to interested parties. One thing that could push suitors away, however, would be his asking price. David O’Brien of The Athletic suggests that Brantley could be looking for a Carlos Santana-esque salary of $20MM over a three-year term — a lofty ask for a player with his injury history. The 31-year-old was undeniably terrific at the plate in 2018, as he typically is when healthy, but shoulder and ankle injuries wiped out most of his 2016-17 seasons. O’Brien further tweets that the Braves might be willing to go to three years for Brantley, but not at an annual value anywhere near that rate.
- Max Kepler‘s name is commonly brought up when rival clubs call the Twins about potential trades, per Dan Hayes of The Athletic (subscription required). That’s been the case for more than a year now, Hayes notes, reporting that Kepler was one of the numerous pieces the Rays sought last winter when chatting Chris Archer with Minnesota. But the Twins still believe that Kepler, an excellent outfielder defender who has displayed some power but not authored a genuine breakout season just yet, is capable of taking his game to a new level. As chief baseball officer Derek Falvey explains to Hayes, it’s tough to judge Kepler’s development as one would with a traditional prospect given that he was born in Berlin, Germany and has still accrued fewer at-bats than many players who are several years younger but come from places where baseball is commonly played year-round. A strong right fielder who can play center as well, Kepler won’t turn 26 until February and still has four years of team control remaining.
- The Rangers are doing their homework on Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi, GM Jon Daniels tells T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. Daniels declined to comment on the Rangers’ specific level of interest in Kikuchi but suggested that his scouts are “obviously” aware of the Seibu Lions ace, who was posted for MLB clubs earlier this week. While early rumors have suggested that Kikuchi may prefer a West Coast club, the Rangers are no strangers to pursuing high-profile NPB talent, as evidenced by their acquisition of Yu Darvish several years ago (admittedly under a different posting system). While Texas isn’t in position to contend next season, the 27-year-old Kikuchi is a logical target even for non-contending clubs, as his relative youth means that he could still be in his prime when a rebuilding club turns the corner. And, given Texas’ utter dearth of pitching, it’s only logical that they’d have interest in a youthful option with a fair bit of upside.
Giants Notes: Bumgarner, Kikuchi, Pence, Offseason, Righetti
Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi dropped some thoughts on a pair of left-handed pitchers in an interview today on KNBR. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi recently kicked off a round of speculation on MadBum with a report suggesting the Giants were open to discussing him and had held talks with the Brewers and Phillies. Zaidi cast quite some doubt on that characterization, as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area relays on Twitter. The newly minted San Francisco exec says a peer with another org rumored to have been in touch on Bumgarner cracked: “Hey, I hear we’re talking to you guys about Madison Bumgarner. Should we be?”
Zaidi further joked: “That gives you a little sense of the accuracy of some of the stuff that’s out there.”
A bit more out of San Fran…
- In that same chat, Zaidi gave greater credence to the idea that the Giants could have interest in Yusei Kikuchi, per Dalton Johnson of NBC Sports Bay Area. The club has scouted Kikuchi “extensively,” according to Zaidi, who predicted that the market is likely to build on the Japanese hurler in advance of and into the coming Winter Meetings. Whether and to what extent the Giants will push for a deal remains to be seen, though Zaidi noted that as a West Coast club, the Giants could be a geographic fit for Kikuchi. Kikuchi has until early January to come to terms with a big league organization, and at 27 years of age, he’s young enough that he could be a key contributor for the Giants in a couple of years even if they do embark on some degree of a rebuild over the next year or two.
- In a Q&A with NBC’s Jessica Kleinschmidt, Hunter Pence reveals that he’s heard from “a couple” teams this offseason but has not yet heard from the Giants. However, CEO Larry Baer told Pence that the Giants would be represented this offseason when the veteran outfielder heads to the Dominican Winter League to test out some adjustments he’s made to his swing in an effort to rediscover his form at the plate. Pence discusses some of those changes with Kleinschmidt and unsurprisingly adds that he would “absolutely” be open to a return to the Giants. As Pavlovic notes in an overview of the Giants’ roster, outfield depth is just one of several areas that Zaidi could look to add some veteran help this winter. Backup catcher, the starting rotation and bullpen are among the other ares that seem likely to be addressed.
- The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly also runs through the many needs facing Zaidi this offseason (subscription required), suggesting that the Giants will look at some “non-splashy” additions to the outfield mix — such as a right-handed-hitting platoon partner for Steven Duggar, for instance. Both Pavlovic and Baggarly point out that substantial rotation depth was a hallmark of Zaidi’s Dodgers, so the organization could look to field a group of options that is eight or nine arms deep (presumably, with some of those options coming on minor league deals and being stashed in Triple-A).
- Despite the changes in the front office, former pitching coach Dave Righetti, who spent the 2018 season as a special advisor to former GM Bobby Evans, will “definitely” have a role with the team, reports Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Righetti worked with Evans to help evaluate pitchers during Spring Training, and he also evaluated the organization’s minor league arms and weighed in on some prospects leading up to the draft. Righetti previously spent 18 seasons on the Giants’ Major League coaching staff.
Seibu Lions To Post Yusei Kikuchi Tomorrow
Dec. 3: Major League clubs have been informed that Kikuchi will be available to them beginning tomorrow morning at 8am ET, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
Nov. 23: The Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball have announced that they will post ace Yusei Kikuchi for Major League teams in early December (English-language link via the Japan Times). The negotiating window for the 27-year-old left-hander will begin on Dec. 5.
This will be the first offseason featuring the new posting system between NPB and MLB. Under the new rules, all 30 teams will have a 30-day window to negotiate with Kikuchi and recently hired agent Scott Boras. It’s a change from the previous iterations of the system — both the former blind bidding and the $20MM maximum posting fee — as the release fee paid to the Lions will now be based on the size of the contract that Kikuchi signs with his new team.
Beyond the actual contract given to Kikuchi, his new team will need to pay a release fee equal to 20 percent of the first $25MM of the deal, plus 17.5 percent of the next $25MM of the contract, plus another 15 percent of anything beyond $50MM. (A $60MM contract, for instance, would come with a release fee of $10.875MM.) The Lions will also receive a sum equal to 15 percent of any non-guaranteed money that Kikuchi eventually earns (e.g. performance bonuses, option salaries).
Kikuchi won’t turn 28 until next June, meaning his age will be an extremely appealing factor as Major League clubs weigh how heavily to pursue him. Beyond the fact that he’s younger than any other starter on the free-agent market, Kikuchi’s performance over the past several seasons has established him as one of the top starters in all of NPB. Over the past four seasons, Kikuchi has worked to a pristine 2.58 ERA with averages of 8.9 strikeouts, 3.1 walks and 0.68 home runs per nine innings pitched. The general belief with Kikuchi is that he can function, at the very least, as a serviceable fourth starter, though the most optimistic teams are more bullish on his upside.
Given the sizable number of clubs looking to add to their rotations this offseason, the general lack of available top-end pitching and the upside the left-hander brings to the table, Kikuchi’s market should be a robust mix of contenders and non-contenders alike. The Padres, for instance, are reported to be seeking starters who are young enough to contribute to the rotation by the time the bulk of the team’s core has emerged in the Majors — perhaps in the 2020-21 seasons. The Phillies, too, have been linked to Kikuchi, as have the Dodgers. Not every team with some rotation questions will embark on an aggressive pursuit, of course — the Red Sox are said to be “lukewarm” on the lefty — but interest will be expansive enough that Boras should secure a strong multi-year deal for the market’s top international player this winter.
Pitching Market Notes: Eovaldi, Yankees, Happ, Kikuchi, Gray, MadBum
After a busy day of arbitration decisions, it’s worth taking stock of some recent developments in the broader market. We’ve already touched upon some major storylines today, with looks at Patrick Corbin (link), Zack Greinke (link), and Carlos Carrasco (link). Here’s more …
- Though Corbin seems to be captivating the market at present, chatter on Nathan Eovaldi is also “heating up,” per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, the Red Sox and Astros are presently seen as prime contenders to land him. With the American League shaping up to be another clash of titans, those organizations are positioned t stake some dough on Eovaldi’s upside.
- The Yankees are a major player on Corbin, of course, but also some other arms — and not just as a backup plan. Indeed, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (via Twitter), the club could even add another significant starter if it does get Corbin. That’d be quite a surprise, given that the team would appear to have a clear starting five if Corbin signs, but perhaps there’s a way to pull something off that would still make sense and leave the club with immense rotation depth.
- Meanwhile, southpaw J.A. Happ is said to have “ten teams chasing” him at this point, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. One of those is the Brewers, who’d presumably like to bolster their rotation but also don’t appear to have an immense amount of money to use. Of course, giving up on Jonathan Schoop clears a big piece of payroll, so long as the club finds a way to address its infield needs without using all the savings.
- There’s also a “strong” market for Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, Heyman tweets. Unsurprisingly, west coast clubs — the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, and Mariners, at least — appear to be lining up for the 27-year-old. It’s still hard to know what kind of salary and duration he’ll be able to command. But as this particular list of clubs shows, Kikuchi’s unusual youth will play a major role in his market by opening the door to quite a few organizations to pursue him.
- Elsewhere, the Yankees are still trying to offload an asset in Sonny Gray. Per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, with GM Brian Cashman saying he has discussed a multitude of different scenarios involving Gray, including some larger deals. That suggests that the Yanks are comfortable hanging onto Gray for a while as they sort through the possibilities, rather than putting him on the market and taking the best deal then available.
- Gray is as good as gone from the team’s perspective, but that’s clearly not the same situation for Giants ace Madison Bumgarner. The burly southpaw is reportedly on the table. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be priced at a level that will lead to a deal. Indeed one organizational source tells Heyman (Twitter link) they “don’t see [Bumgarner] going anywhere this winter.” Certainly, the Giants have little need to dump Bumgarner if they aren’t getting something worthwhile in return. Teams with interest, though, will remain wary of a big price for one season of a player with recent shoulder woes and some performance questions.
Yankees Notes: Ottavino, Kikuchi, Harper
A few notes from the Bronx…
- With crucial bullpen pieces David Robertson and Zach Britton among their free agents, the Yankees are planning to add two relievers this offseason, according to general manager Brian Cashman (via Joel Sherman of the New York Post). One of those pickups may be free-agent right-hander Adam Ottavino, whom the Yankees are interested in, Sherman reports. The 33-year-old Ottavino – a New York City native – just put up a career season in Colorado, where he logged a 2.43 ERA/2.74 FIP with 12.98 K/9 and 4.17 BB/9 across 77 2/3 innings. On the heels of his marvelous 2018 campaign, MLBTR predicts Ottavino will join the Yankees on a three-year, $30MM contract this offseason.
- The Yankees have discussed signing Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, team owner Hal Steinbrenner revealed earlier this month (per David Lennon of Newsday). “I saw film on him during the pro scouting meetings,” Steinbrenner said. “We talked about that individual. We’ve always been paying attention to that area of the world — some unbelievably great players came out of there. So it won’t be any different this year.” Steinbrenner’s comments came before the Yankees acquired fellow lefty James Paxton from the Mariners this past Monday, which in theory could lessen the need for Kikuchi. However, the Yankees still seem destined to get at least one more high-end starter this offseason, and they’ve never been shy about pursuing hyped Japanese talent, evidenced by past signings such as Hideki Irabu, Hideki Matsui, Kei Igawa and Masahiro Tanaka. While the 27-year-old Kikuchi’s not yet available to major league clubs, that will change when the Seibu Lions – his team in Nippon Professional Baseball – post him in early December.
- New York is loaded in the outfield, where it boasts Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier and Jacoby Ellsbury. Free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper seems like more of a luxury than a need, then, though there has been speculation about the Yankees signing the superstar to play first base, where their top holdover, Luke Voit, dominated late in 2018 but doesn’t carry an extensive major league track record. Earlier this week, Cashman discussed the possibility of signing Harper to line up at first, telling the YES Network (via Mike Rosenstein of NJ.com): “People have talked about Bryce Harper being able to play first base, I don’t know if he can or can’t. I know he’s very athletic, but that’s not necessarily a bet I would recommend placing with the amount of money he’s expected to get.” Although Cashman doesn’t seem enthusiastic about Harper as a first base option, the executive added that he’s “not ruling anything out.”
MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For McCutchen, Kikuchi, Donaldson, And More
MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed on November 18th, and earlier this week we ran through our readers’ team predictions for each of the top ten free agents. Now, let’s check out another batch of reader picks:
11. Andrew McCutchen – Indians (13.6%), Braves (9.3%), Cubs (9.2%), Pirates (5.4%), Phillies (4.9%), Yankees (4.8%), Nationals (4.3%), Mets (4.3%), Cardinals (4.0%), White Sox (3.6%), Mariners (3.4%), Giants (3.2%), Rockies (3.2%), Diamondbacks (3.1%)
12. Yusei Kikuchi – Padres (18.8%), Mariners (12.0%), Dodgers (11.5%), Angels (9.7%), Giants (4.8%), Yankees (4.5%), Red Sox (4.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Rangers (3.2%)
13. Josh Donaldson – Cardinals (50.1%), Braves (6.1%), Indians (6.0%), Mets (4.5%), Phillies (4.0%), Angels (3.8%), White Sox (2.8%)
14. Charlie Morton – Astros (35.6%), Phillies (13.0%), Nationals (5.9%), Brewers (5.1%), Braves (3.4%), Angels (3.2%), Athletics (2.8%)
15. Wilson Ramos – Nationals (16.8%), Astros (13.4%), Braves (10.1%), Dodgers (10.1%), Mets (7.3%), Phillies (6.3%), Angels (6.0%), Brewers (3.6%), Mariners (3.6%), Rays (3.0%), Rockies (2.7%), Athletics (2.5%)
16. Marwin Gonzalez – Astros (10.3%), Twins (7.0%), Cubs (6.7%), Yankees (5.7%), Mets (5.5%), Giants (5.1%), Rockies (4.7%), Brewers (4.7%), Angels (4.4%), Indians (4.2%), Braves (4.0%), Phillies (4.0%), Dodgers (3.5%), Nationals (3.4%), Athletics (3.2%), Cardinals (3.2%), White Sox (3.0%), Blue Jays (3.0%)
17. Jeurys Familia – Athletics (12.4%), Mets (9.5%), Twins (6.9%), Cubs (6.7%), Cardinals (6.2%), Red Sox (5.6%), Braves (5.5%), Dodgers (4.5%), Phillies (4.4%), Angels (4.1%), Indians (4.1%), Nationals (3.8%), Brewers (3.8%)
18. Zach Britton – Astros (11.1%), Red Sox (11.0%), Yankees (10.9%), Cubs (9.8%), Cardinals (8.0%), Dodgers (7.0%), Phillies (6.4%), Braves (5.8%), Mets (5.2%), Nationals (3.6%), Indians (3.4%)
19. David Robertson – Yankees (28.8%), Mets (11.7%), Red Sox (9.0%), Cubs (4.7%), Braves (4.5%), Cardinals (4.5%), Indians (3.5%), Dodgers (3.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Nationals (3.2%)
20. Adam Ottavino – Yankees (11.4%), Rockies (11.2%), Cardinals (7.9%), Dodgers (7.5%), Mets (7.1%), Red Sox (7.0%), Cubs (6.3%), Braves (4.9%), Nationals (3.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Indians (3.2%), Brewers (3.2%)
Red Sox Rumors: JDM, Bogaerts, Kikuchi, Payroll, Farm
Both J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts are likely to test free agency a year from now, writes Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. Martinez has an opt-out provision in his five-year, $110MM contract with the Red Sox, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski gave no indication of interest in restructuring that deal, per Drellich. “He can choose to leave, it’s his opt out,” said Dombrowski. “But the reason we put ‘em in there were medically oriented as we went through at the time. That medical hasn’t changed.” Dombrowski is referring to medical provisions that were worked into the contract, allowing the Red Sox to convert the final two seasons of the deal into mutual options in the event that Martinez misses enough time due to a preexisting Lisfranc injury in his foot. As for Bogaerts, Dombrowski called his contract situation “important” for the team. Agent Scott Boras, meanwhile, told Drellich he’s “open to any thoughts [the Red Sox] have on the subject.” Asked about a recent extension for fellow client Jose Altuve, Boras pointed out that Bogaerts is two and a half years younger and also plays shortstop.
More from Boston…
- Boston’s interest in Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who is expected to be posted for MLB teams later this month, can be described as “lukewarm,” reports WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Dombrowski declined to comment on Kikuchi at the GM Meetings, beyond indicating that as one of Japan’s top arms, he’s a pitcher the Sox have scouted frequently in the past (as have many MLB clubs). “Yes, we have a pulse on him,” said Dombrowski. Boston could theoretically look to add some arms behind its top trio of Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello — especially considering Sale’s presence on next year’s free-agent market — but it doesn’t sound as though Kikuchi will be a prime target.
- In a pair of columns for the Boston Globe, Alex Speier looks at Boston’s payroll/luxury tax situation as well as the team’s poorly regarded farm system. There’s virtually no scenario in which the Sox will avoid another season of luxury tax penalization, Speier observes, making the question not one of if they’ll incur penalty but rather one of how steep a penalty they’re willing to accept. Boston went into the highest luxury bracket this season and will be taxed at the maximum rate while also seeing its top draft pick dropped by 10 spots. Principal owner John Henry tells Speier, “You can’t do that all the time,” but Speier notes that it’s not clear if the organization is willing to do so once more in 2019. From a distance, it’s worth noting that this is the final season of club control over Sale, Martinez and Bogaerts, so there’s a good case to be made for maintaining aggression (though that’s just my own two cents). As for the farm system, Speier notes that a survey of rival evaluators left no real consensus as to the team’s top prospect — a fact that serves to highlight the general uncertainty that permeates the farm. But, the Sox surely have the pieces to once again be active on next summer’s rental market, Speier notes while highlighting a particular concentration of interesting third base prospects.
Pitching Market Notes: Kikuchi, Kimbrel, Happ, Miller, EJax, Patton
Changes in pitching usage seem likely to shake up the player market — but how? Jayson Stark of The Athletic takes a look at the question, which will in no small part be answered in this winter’s free agent market, in a subscription piece. The broad takeaway is that back-of-the-rotation starter types will still find a market, but perhaps won’t be pursued as forcefully in years past. (It seems fair to add that such pitchers may still be valued for their ability to eat innings, but may also not be asked to gobble up quite as many in hopes that they’ll be more effective.) Meanwhile, teams will perhaps be more willing than before to pay up for highly talented pitchers with durability questions.
Here’s the latest market chatter:
- The Phillies intend to pursue Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. It bears noting that the Philadelphia organization is also said to be interested in quite a few other appealing free agent hurlers, but it’s particularly notable that the Phils like Kikuchi after watching him pitch in his native Japan. Per a report from the Japan Times, it seems that Kikuchi’s formal posting will be processed sooner than later.
- If there are several starters on the menu for the Phillies, it seems they could also play at the upper reaches of the relief market. Morosi tweets that they are at least looking into top available closer Craig Kimbrel. Elsewhere, while a reunion between Kimbrel and the Red Sox can’t be counted out, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggests that it does not seem particularly likely, either. The vibe of the post is that the Boston organization is probably not preparing to out-bid the market on the veteran closer. Though Kimbrel would obviously still have appeal at a reasonable price, Cafardo seems to hint at relatively tepid interest. For instance, he writes, “Red Sox officials usually shrug their shoulders when asked about Kimbrel’s future.”
- Starter J.A. Happ is a popular early name on the market. The Twins can be counted among the many teams with interest, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). It’ll be interesting to see whether the southpaw ends up signing relatively early in the winter. The lefty has been much more than a steadying presence in recent season, with intriguing peripherals that suggest he’s better than ever even at 36 years of age. You can track all the prior and future rumors on Happ right here.
- Veteran lefty Andrew Miller is “definitely seeking [a] multiyear commitment” in free agency, Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets. While some have guessed Miller might seek to reestablish some value with a pillow contract, that doesn’t seem to be his preference. There’s also solid early interest. Martino (here) and Morosi (Twitter link) each tie Miller to the Mets, with Martino also noting that the Yankees also are interested. More broadly, Martino writes that the Mets are looking into the entire free agent market for relief help, including the best (and most expensive) arms available. It is difficult to guess at this point how things will turn out, particularly since the Mets have so many bullpen openings. MLBTR gave its best guess recently, though, predicting the Mets would land a pair of notable relievers. As for Miller, we expect he’ll have strong, multi-year offers to choose from.
- The Athletics have interest in a reunion with Edwin Jackson, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). The 35-year-old still managed to average better than 94 mph on his four-seam fastball and got good results from a cutter that became his most-used pitch. One would think he will have multiple suitors after throwing 92 innings of 3.33 ERA ball, though the interest will be tempered by less-than-exciting peripherals (6.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, 36.4% GB) that left ERA estimators rather unimpressed by his 2018 effort (4.65 FIP, 4.88 xFIP, 4.98 SIERA). The Oakland organization secured excellent results from several bounceback hurlers this year and will surely weigh retaining at least some of them, even as it also seeks new possibilities.
- Right-hander Spencer Patton could weigh a return stateside after two campaigns in Japan, per Robert Murray of The Athletic (via Twitter). The 30-year-old may have found another gear while pitching for the Yokohama Bay Stars. He worked to a 2.64 ERA in his 116 innings over the past two seasons, recording 10.3 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. Patton failed to hold down a big league job despite receiving some opportunities in the past, though he is said to have found some added velocity of late. It seems he’s hearing from a few interested MLB organizations as the offseason gets underway.