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Rule 5 Draft

West Notes: Dodgers, Blash, Astros

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The Dodgers’ luxury tax bill for the year came to $43.6MM, Ronald Blum of the AP reports. For luxury-tax purposes, the Dodgers had a payroll of $297.9MM. As luxury-tax offenders for the third consecutive year, they were taxed at a 40% rate for the amount by which they exceeded the tax threshold of $189MM. The Yankees, meanwhile, will pay $26.1MM, while the Red Sox owe $1.8MM and the Giants $1.3MM. The $72.8MM between the four teams amounts to the record amount of luxury tax collected in a season, Blum reports. That the Dodgers’ bill was so steep comes as little surprise, of course — their 2015 payroll, headed by large expenditures for players like Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier, was the highest in MLB history. Here’s more from the West divisions.

  • Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune profiles new Padres outfielder Jabari Blash, who the Athletics selected from the Mariners in this month’s Rule 5 Draft and then traded to San Diego. The 26-year-old Blash looked like one of the best potential power sources available in the Rule 5 — he batted .271/.370/.576 and hit 32 homers between Double-A Jackson and Triple-A Tacoma in 2015. Interestingly, Blash grew up in the Virgin Islands, and one of the first offers of congratulations he received was from Callix Crabbe, a former infielder from the Virgin Islands who the Padres selected in the Rule 5 Draft in 2007.
  • The surprising package the Astros gave up to get Ken Giles from the Phillies reflects an industry-wide trend in which relievers capable of pitching high-leverage innings are valued more highly, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle writes. The Astros gave up Vincent Velasquez and Mark Appel in the Giles deal. They re-signed another reliever, Tony Sipp, to a hefty three-year, $18MM contract. The belief that good relievers are fundamentally less valuable than good starting pitchers or position players has long been widely held, but perhaps that’s changing, at least to a degree. “You’d have to say that as an industry, we’re valuing a team that’s in contention needs to have those guys at the back end of the bullpen,” says Astros GM Jeff Luhnow. “We’ve seen what the Royals have been able to do with a successful execution of that strategy, and the Mets with (Jeurys) Familia, and there’s good late-inning relievers on the teams that make it to and win in the playoffs.”

Padres Acquire Luis Perdomo From Rockies

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The Padres announced that they have acquired right-hander Luis Perdomo from the Rockies in exchange for cash considerations of a player to be named later. Colorado took Perdomo with the fourth pick in today’s Rule 5 Draft.

The 22-year-old Perdomo, not to be confused with the journeyman right-hander of the same name, split this past season across the Cardinals’ Class-A affiliates in the Midwest League and Florida State League. Perdomo posted a combined 3.98 ERA with 8.4 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 while working almost exclusively out of the rotation. (He did make one relief appearance.)

Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper recently wrote that Perdomo sits 93-95 mph with his fastball and features a tight slider. While he’s yet to appear above Class-A Advanced, Cooper noted that a club could select Perdomo with the hopes that he could thrive in a bullpen role by focusing only on those two pitches. MLB.com’s Corey Brock, however, tweets that GM A.J. Preller says Perdomo will come to Spring Training as a starter and possibly moved to the bullpen if necessary. MLB.com’s Jim Callis called Perdomo’s slider a plus pitch and offered a similar take on his velocity in his own preview.

By acquiring Perdomo, the Padres have added their fourth player from today’s Rule 5 pick. San Diego made two picks of its own — right-handers Josh Martin and Blake Smith — and also acquired outfielder Jabari Blash from the Athletics. All four players will have to be carried on the active roster, lest they be exposed to waivers and, if they clear, offered back to their original organization for $50K.

2015 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The Rule 5 Draft is less than half an hour away, beginning at 10am ET as this week’s Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tenn. draw to a close. Those unfamiliar with the Rule 5 Draft can check out MLBTR’s full primer on the event here, but the short version of the story is that teams with open 40-man roster spots can select players with four to five years of pro experience from other organizations if said player hasn’t been protected on the 40-man roster. Players that signed at 18 years of age or younger but have five years of experience can be selected, as can players signed at 19 or older that have four years of experience. Clubs don’t have to make picks — many will not — and players that are selected must be carried on a team’s active roster (or MLB DL) throughout the entire 2016 season or be exposed to waivers and then offered back to their original club. Teams can also work out trades with the original organization to keep the selected player in the organization but send him to the minors.

The Rule 5 Draft order is based on the reverse order of last year’s standings. It’s already been reported that the Phillies are likely to take Rays outfielder Tyler Goeddel with the No. 1 pick, and Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper hears that the Reds are leaning toward selecting outfielder Jake Cave from the Yankees with the second pick. Both Cooper (link here) and Callis (link here) have listed plenty of names that could be selected and provided brief rundowns of each player, for those who want to brush up before the event approaches. Furthermore, Cooper took a stab this morning at projecting the early portion of the draft.

We’ll track the results here once the draft is officially underway (current 40-man roster count listed in parenthesis; hat tip to Callis on that info)…

Round 1

  1. Phillies (37): Tyler Goeddel, OF (Rays)
  2. Reds (35): Jake Cave, OF (Yankees)
  3. Braves (39): Evan Rutckyj, LHP (Yankees)
  4. Rockies (39): Luis Perdomo, RHP (Cardinals)
  5. Brewers (34): Colin Walsh, 2B (Athletics)
  6. Athletics (38): Jabari Blash, OF (Mariners) — Susan Slusser reports he’s expected to be traded to Padres (Twitter link)
  7. Marlins (38): No Selection
  8. Padres (36): Josh Martin (Indians)
  9. Tigers (40): No Selection
  10. White Sox (38): No Selection
  11. Mariners (40): No Selection
  12. Red Sox (40): No Selection
  13. D-backs (40): No Selection
  14. Rays (40): No Selection
  15. Orioles (39): Joey Rickard, OF (Rays)
  16. Indians (40): No Selection
  17. Twins (40): No Selection
  18. Nationals (37): No Selection
  19. Giants (38): No Selection
  20. Angels (34): Deolis Guerra, RHP (Pirates)
  21. Astros (37): No Selection
  22. Yankees (39): No Selection
  23. Rangers (37): No Selection
  24. Mets (39): No Selection
  25. Dodgers (38): No Selection
  26. Blue Jays (35): Joe Biagini, RHP (Giants)
  27. Royals (39): No Selection
  28. Cubs (39): No Selection
  29. Pirates (38): No Selection
  30. Cardinals (34): Matthew Bowman, RHP (Mets)

Round 2

  1. Phillies: Daniel Stumpf, LHP (Royals)
  2. Reds: Chris O’Grady, LHP (Angels)
  3. Brewers: Zach Jones, RHP (Twins)
  4. Padres: Blake Smith, RHP (White Sox)
  5. Angels: Ji-Man Choi, 1B (Orioles)

Quick Hits: Murphy, Padres, O’s, Kazmir, Brewers, Astros

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Here are a few odds and ends left over from the past 24 hours or so of Winter Meetings action.

  • The Angels are open to a reunion with David Murphy as a backup plan in case they’re unable to sign a top free agent, Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com tweets. The 34-year-old Murphy hit .265/.281/.400 in 155 plate appearances after the Angels traded for him in July. If they do re-sign him, they’ll use him as the lefty half of a platoon.
  • The Padres are still looking for a shortstop, but they’d like to make sure there aren’t any trades available before they head to the free-agent market to sign one, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi tweets. Perhaps that makes sense — Ian Desmond (who didn’t have a very strong year by his standards) stands head and shoulders above the rest of the current group of free agent shortstops, and he’s followed by a number of veterans coming off weak seasons, like Jimmy Rollins, Stephen Drew and Alexei Ramirez.
  • The Orioles are one of many teams interested in free agent starter Scott Kazmir, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets. With the departure of Wei-Yin Chen, the Orioles’ rotation is entirely right-handed, and they’re reportedly interested in a lefty to balance it. Kazmir would fit the bill.
  • The Brewers will look to take at least one player in this morning’s Rule 5 Draft, Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel writes. As Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper previously noted, several potential Rule 5 picks come from the Astros’ system (lefty Reymin Guduan, outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, catcher Roberto Pena, righty Chris Devenski). Haudricourt wonders if, with the fifth pick today, former Astros exec and new Brewers GM David Stearns could choose a player from his old organization.

Phillies Likely To Select Tyler Goeddel First In Rule 5 Draft

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The Phillies are likely to take Rays outfielder Tyler Goeddel with the first pick in Thursday’s Rule 5 Draft, MLB.com’s Jim Callis writes, citing his colleague Todd Zolecki. The Rule 5 takes place at 9:00 Central on Thursday.

Callis names Mariners outfielder Jabari Blash, Astros lefty Raymin Guduan, Twins righty Zack Jones, Astros catcher Roberto Pena, Cardinals righty Luis Perdomo and Diamondbacks righty Nick Sarianides as potential selections. Compared to the June draft, however, there’s generally far less consensus about potential Rule 5 picks, due to the restrictions on which players can be selected. (Here’s a primer on how the Rule 5 Draft works.)

Goeddel is the brother of Mets reliever Erik Goeddel. Callis notes that the younger Goeddel has good raw power and speed, and a strong arm that could play in right field. The 23-year-old hit .279/.350/.433 in 533 plate appearances for Double-A Montgomery in 2015, hitting 12 home runs while swiping 28 bases.

If Goeddel is indeed the Phillies’ pick, he could join their top selection last year, Odubel Herrera, in the Philadelphia outfield. Other key picks from that draft included Delino DeShields, Mark Canha, Sean Gilmartin and J.R. Graham.

Profiling Possible Top Rule 5 Picks

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After finishing with the worst record in baseball, the Phillies will pick first in the upcoming Rule 5 draft.  The draft, set to be held on December 10th, is the final activity of the Winter Meetings. Teams have a chance to select players from rival franchises with a main rules:

  • Any player on the 40-man roster is protected
  • Players signed at age 19 or older are protected for four seasons
  • Players signed at age 18 or older are protected for five seasons

If none of those conditions apply to a player, then he may be selected in the draft. Draft picks cost $50K and the drafting team must keep a player on the major league roster for the entire season in order to retain him. Injured players must spend at least 90 active days on the roster.

If a team decides not to fulfill these conditions, the former club can reacquire the player for $25K. Sometimes, the team refuses to pay the fee, as was the case when the Phillies selected Shane Victorino from the Dodgers. There is also a minor league portion of the draft with slightly different rules and requirements. For the scope of this post, we’ll focus on the major league portion.

The Phillies and the Rule 5 Draft

The Phillies are one of the most successful teams in the Rule 5 draft in recent years. Dating back to 2009, they’ve made the following picks: David Herndon (2009), Michael Martinez (2010), Ender Inciarte (2012), Kevin Munson (2013), Odubel Herrera (2014), and Andy Oliver (2014).

Herndon, Martinez, and Herrera were the most successful of those picks with Herrera looking like a building block for Philadelphia. Many of you will recognize Inciarte, an able outfielder for the Diamondbacks. The Phillies failed to keep him on the active roster for a season and had to return him.

Teams generally select players who fit one of these profiles:

  • Left-handed relievers
  • Hard throwing, wild pitching prospects
  • Back-up catchers
  • Polished hitters with uncertain defense
  • Athletic, raw position players

Herrera, along with fellow successful pick Delino DeShields (Rangers), fell into the latter category. The toolsy athletes are probably the riskiest bucket to pick, but they also come with the highest upside.

In full rebuild mode, it’s my opinion that the Phillies will benefit most from an aggressive pick at first overall. Rather than playing the relief market, I expect them to target a possible starting left fielder.  Herrera and Aaron Altherr are the only two starting outfielders on the roster. Both are exciting young players who emerged during the 2015 season. Both also come with risk. The Phillies will want to build redundancy.

Other options on the 40-man roster include Cody Asche, Darnell Sweeney, and Roman Quinn. Asche and Sweeney are penciled in as the left field platoon, but that’s not how the team will enter Spring Training. Quinn is not yet major league ready. Given the internal options, there is room to give a Rule 5 pick a long look in left field.

The 40-man roster currently stands at 37, meaning the club could pick up to three players if it chooses. Rarely do teams take more than two, but the Phillies might be the exception. The bullpen is a work in progress, and there are enough interesting relievers to give two a look after picking an outfielder.

The Candidates

We recently cited J.J Cooper of Baseball America’s list of Rule 5 names to remember. Of those, five stand out as first pick material to me. This is not to say that the Phillies scouts won’t fall in love with another player or decide to go with a pitcher. But these are my best guesses to go first overall in the draft.

Jabari Blash, OF, SEA

This is the second time Blash, 26, is eligible for the draft. The Mariners left him unprotected last year, and he went unpicked. That’s unlikely to happen this year after he blasted 32 home runs between Double- and Triple-A.  It wasn’t a matter of dominating the weaker opponents either. After a BABIP-fueled outburst in Double-A, the righty finished with 22 home runs in 228 plate appearances in Triple-A. His BABIP actually fell to .263, yet he still posted a strong .264/.355/.640 line.

Pros: Power, athleticism, a high walk rate, upper-minors success, and plus defense.

Cons: A big whiff rate that could get out of hand in the majors.

Tyler Goeddel, OF, TBR

Cooper describes Goeddel, 23, as one of the most polished hitters in the draft. The right-handed hitter is eligible for the first time after hitting .279./350/.433 over 533 plate appearances at Double-A. He’s a well-rounded asset with some power (12 home runs) and speed (28 stolen bases).

Pros: Athleticism, youth, plate discipline, plus defense, power, and speed.

Cons: Yet to reach Triple-A.

Jake Cave, OF, NYY

Entering his age 23 season, Cave is still relatively young like Goeddel. He was once thought to possess upside similar to Jacoby Ellsbury, but injuries and time have sapped his speed. The lefty is viewed as an ideal fourth outfielder with some latent power, decent wheels, and the ability to do a passable job in center field. He hit .269/.330/.345 in 563 Double-A plate appearances. He received a brief, successful trial in Triple-A too.

Pros: Can play all three outfield spots, decent contact skills and plate discipline

Cons: More of a fourth outfielder

Zach Borenstein, OF/1B, ARI

Borenstein, 24, is a left-handed power prospect who has lost some steam. He performed well at Double-A last season with a BABIP-fueled .314/.394/.511 line in 327 plate appearances. He was miserable in a 53 plate appearance try in Triple-A. A questionable defender, Borenstein may be a better candidate for the Phillies second pick.

Pros: History of power, strong plate discipline once he adapts to a level

Cons: Iffy Triple-A track record, game power was best in 2013

Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B, KAN

Now there’s an 80-grade baseball name. As you might expect, Fuenmayor is a right-handed, aggressive power hitter. The 26-year-old is recovering from a torn ACL.

When healthy, Fuenmayor hit  .354/.386/.591 with 15 home runs in 308 Double-A plate appearances. He also had a small sample of success in Triple-A. Unlike the others listed here, he’s a first baseman if not a designated hitter. The Phillies have two of those – Ryan Howard and Darin Ruf. They might be willing to try another.

Pros: Excellent half season in 2015, power and contact skills

Cons: Aggressive, questionable defender

My best guess

I expect the Phillies to select Goeddel or Blash first overall. Both are candidates to step in and perform at a high level much like Herrera did last season. At the very least, they’ll offer plus defense. Their multi-faceted skill sets should ensure other means of production too. Goeddel is probably the safer of the two options, and I like that he’s younger too.

Remember, these picks can be traded. There’s nothing stopping the Phillies from taking a shot on both athletes. They’re liable to match the production of Sweeney who can be optioned. Asche is viewed as a trade candidate. The trade route would also give the club the option of evaluating two players during the spring and picking their favorite. It’s probably an unlikely path, but it’s an open option.

Prospect Notes: Rule 5, Peraza, AFL

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Though it won’t take place until the end of the Winter Meetings, the stage has been set for the Rule 5 draft, as teams re-set their 40-man rosters in preparation. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper breaks down the players who weren’t protected and thus remain eligible to be plucked away. Cooper writes that we’re unlikely to see a repeat of last year’s incredible Rule 5 success rate, but still manages to come up with a large group of players who could draw interest. Best of all, they are sorted by player type (e.g., “inexperienced pitchers with great arms”).

Here are a few more prospect-related links to check out:

  • MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo answered reader questions in a mailbag today. Among other topics, he talks about the status of Dodgers second baseman Jose Peraza. The club ought to give him a chance to win regular playing time this spring, Mayo argues.
  • Mayo also recently listed ten standout prospects from the just-concluded Arizona Fall League. This group doesn’t reflect the players with the highest prospect standing from the fall league, but rather those that most improved their standing during the short season. Among them is Cardinals infielder Aledmys Diaz, who was outrighted last year but finished with a robust .315/.370/.616 line in Arizona and was added back to the 40-man roster.
  • Meanwhile, ESPN.com’s Eric Longenhagen took a detailed look at the fall league results. Catcher Gary Sanchez of the Yankees and Rangers center fielder Lewis Brinson were among the players who showed increased promise from a scouting perspective. Also drawing that review was lefty Josh Hader, who was one of several interesting players who went to the Brewers in the Carlos Gomez/Mike Fiers trade.

Added To The 40-Man Roster: Friday

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Tonight at 8:00pm ET is the deadline for teams to add players to their 40-man roster and thereby protect them from this year’s Rule 5 Draft. In other words: there will be a significant amount of 40-man roster moves made over the course of the next 13 or so hours. Six clubs already made moves to protect prospects from the Rule 5 yesterday, and each of the remaining 24 clubs should make moves today as well.

In brief: players drafted/signed at 18 years of age or younger must be added to the 40-man roster within five years of signing or be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. Players drafted/signed at 19 or older must be added within four years. Those interested in all of the specifics can refer to articles from MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo and J.J. Cooper of Baseball America. Perhaps of greater interest is that Mayo lists all of the prospects from MLB.com’s Top 100 list and from their organizational Top 30 lists that much be protected in advance of tonight’s deadline, while Cooper provides brief write-ups on each player that has been protected (and will continue to do so as additions are made).

Here are today’s additions to the 40-man roster. You can check out Baseball America’s coverage to learn more about the individual players listed below …

Earlier Updates

Added To The 40-Man: Reds, Padres, Braves, Jays, Cards, Nats

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The deadline for teams to add players to their 40-man roster and thereby protect them from this year’s Rule 5 Draft is tomorrow night at 8:00pm ET. As such, there will be a large volume of players added to 40-man rosters in the coming day as well as a handful of moves to clear 40-man space for those new additions. The Astros’ trade of Jonathan Villar and release of Robbie Grossman and Luis Cruz earlier today, for instance, created three new spots on their 40-man for the purpose of protecting prospects. Players who signed at 18 or younger must be added to the 40-man roster within five years of signing or be exposed to all 29 other teams in the Rule 5 Draft. Players who were 19 or older at the time they signed must be added within four seasons.

MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo has more specifics on the intricacies of the Rule 5 Draft for those that are interested. Mayo also notes that 11 of MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects are in need of protection from the Rule 5 Draft, and he goes on to list the players from each organization’s Top 30 prospects who must be added by tomorrow night in order to be protected.

With all of that said, here’s today’s list of players that have been added to the 40-man roster…

Earlier Updates

September Rule 5 Roundup

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This year’s Rule 5 draft class has shown that the Winter Meeting-capping selection process still has meaning. As Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper explained recently, a remarkably high-quality group of players swapped hands last December, and odds are that few of them will end up returning to their original teams.

For reference, here are the season’s leaderboards for the players who have accrued major league statistics, for both Rule 5 hitters and pitchers. Let’s have a look at where things stand with the season all but over (at least so far as Rule 5 roster considerations are concerned).

Keepers With Immediate Function

Far from clogging roster space, Odubel Herrera (Phillies), Delino DeShields Jr. (Rangers), and Mark Canha have all been heavily-used, productive contributors to their respective teams. Herrera, in particular, has been a revelation, tallying over three wins above replacement at 23 years of age.

On the pitching side of the equation, Mets selection Sean Gilmartin has been nothing short of excellent in his 45 2/3 frames with the club. The lefty has worked to a 2.56 ERA and seeming to be quite a useful asset moving forward.

Twins right-hander J.R. Graham, meanwhile, has exceeded Gilmartin in usage — he’s nearing sixty innings for a contending club — but hasn’t matched the results. Graham owns just a 5.09 ERA, though there are some signs of hope for the future. He has a respectable 7.3 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 to go with a 46.8% groundball rate, and SIERA values his contributions at a solid 3.76.

Needless to say, all of the above players will be retained by their new organizations. While many Rule 5ers who are successfully acquired end up back in the minors following their season of limbo, the odds seem good that all of these players will once again be significant pieces of their teams’ puzzles in 2016.

Little-Used, Future-Looking Assets

Of course, there are other Rule 5 selections who are now all but certain to be kept. But the road traveled by their teams involved much more difficult roster juggling. As with Adrian Nieto (White Sox) and Wei-Chung Wang (Brewers) last year, these players were not significant contributors at the major league level despite taking up active roster spots all season long.

25-year-old infielder Taylor Featherston has had at least some function given his valuable glove, but has slashed just .156/.210/.227 in only 141 plate appearances for the Angels. He makes for a nice analogue to Nieto, who similarly was considered a quality defender up the middle who wasn’t quite ready for MLB pitching, but managed to hold on all season long. Featherston could follow suit and return to the minors next year.

This year’s first overall Rule 5 pick Oscar Hernandez missed the beginning of the season for the Diamondbacks when he hit the DL with a broken hamate bone. He was activated in early July, just in time to spend the required ninety days on the active roster to complete a Rule 5 acquisition. He’s slashed just .107/.219/.143 in a meager 33 plate appearances since that time, so he’s all but certain to be sent down in 2016.

Orioles righty Jason Garcia has only thrown 27 innings, posting a 4.33 ERA with 6.7 K/9 against 4.7 BB/9. Like Wang last year, a mid-season injury eased the active roster burden in his case. It’s not yet clear what will happen with Garcia next year, but it’s likely that he’ll go on optional assignment to develop as a starter.

Also set to be retained upon the conclusion of the 2015 season are lefties Andrew McKirahan (Braves) and David Rollins (Mariners). The two southpaws have had startlingly similar paths: PED suspensions that actually made it easier for their clubs to retain them, followed by fairly ugly earned run averages but reasonably promising peripherals in limited action. Both will cross the 90-day threshold this year, so they can be retained without requiring time on the roster to start 2016.

Still In Limbo

It is possible for a player to remain with a selecting team but still remain in limbo. That’s because of the aforementioned 90-day rule. Players that haven’t spent that much time on the active roster due to DL or suspension stints must first accrue the remainder in the following season before they can be permanently acquired. If and when they do reach that point, such players can be freely optioned to the minors by their new teams.

This year there is one such multi-year player: righty Daniel Winkler, was a Tommy John patient who was only just activated recently by the Braves after missing most of the year. Hhe’s yet to appear in competitive action for the Atlanta organization — in the minors or the majors — and had never seen big league action before the year. He’ll pick up just under a month of time on the active roster late this year, and will need to be on the club’s 25-man for about two months at the start of next season for his rights to be kept.

Already Returned

The ride was over months ago for a trio of hurlers: Jandel Gustave, Logan Verrett, and Andy Oliver. The first two were returned to their former teams, while Oliver hit free agency because he was a two-time Rule 5 pick. Interestingly, Verrett has played a reasonably significant role in the majors with his original team since being returned. He’s thrown 23 1/3 innings of 1.93 ERA ball, with 8.9 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9, for the soon-to-be NL East champs.

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