2023 Rule 5 Update: April Edition
We’re three weeks into the 2024 season, and this year’s crop of Rule 5 picks has had an atypical amount of staying power. That’s perhaps in part due to the fact that only ten players were selected in the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but as of this writing, only one Rule 5 selection has been returned to his original organization.
For those unfamiliar, in order to be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, a player must not be on his team’s 40-man roster and must have played in either parts of five professional seasons (if they signed at 18 or younger) or four professional seasons (if they signed at 19 or older). The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 by selecting their contracts to the 40-man roster typically falls in mid-November and spurs a good deal of player movement as teams jettison borderline players and non-tender candidates from their roster in order to protect younger prospects.
A player who is selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire subsequent season on his new club’s Major League roster and cannot be optioned to the minors. The player can technically spend time on the injured list as well, but at least 90 days must be spent on the active roster. If not, the player’s Rule 5 status rolls into the following season until 90 days on the active roster have been accrued. If a team at any point decides it can no longer carry a Rule 5 selection, that player must be passed through waivers and subsequently offered back to his original organization. Any other club can claim the player via waivers, but the same Rule 5 restrictions will apply to the claiming team.
Broadly speaking, the Rule 5 Draft rarely produces impact players. There are plenty of exceptions over the years, though, with names like Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton and, more recently, Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Stephan thriving in new organizations. The Rule 5 Draft dates back more than a century and has even produced a handful of Hall of Famers: Roberto Clemente, Hack Wilson and Christy Mathewson.
It’s unlikely we’ll see any Cooperstown-bound players come from this year’s crop, but the teams who opted to select a player will be content if any of these names become a viable reliever or role player for the next several seasons. Here’s a look at this year’s group of ten Rule 5 players and where they stand. We’ll do a few of these throughout the season, keeping tabs on which players survive the season and formally have their long-term rights transferred to their new clubs.
On a Major League Roster
Mitch Spence, RHP, Athletics (selected from Yankees)
Spence, 26 next month, was the first overall pick in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, and understandably so after the 2023 season he had. His 4.47 ERA might’ve been pedestrian, but the 2019 tenth-rounder led all Triple-A pitchers with 163 innings while delivering a nice blend of strikeouts (21.8%), walks (7.5%) and ground-balls (50%). For an A’s club desperately thin on starting pitching after the slew of rebuilding-driven trades for minor league arms have failed to produce much, adding a 25-year-old arm with that type of season held obvious appeal.
Spence made Oakland’s decision easy with a monster spring showing. He pitched 17 2/3 innings and allowed only six earned runs (3.06 ERA) on 15 hits and six walks with 21 punchouts. He’s worked out of the ‘pen so far in Oakland but could very well find himself making starts later in the year. Through his first 11 2/3 MLB frames, Spence has yielded four earned runs on 10 hits and four walks with a 48.4% grounder rate. He’s not in danger of losing his spot anytime soon.
Matt Sauer, RHP, Royals (selected from Yankees)
Another 25-year-old righty out of the Yankees organization, Sauer came to his new club with a much heavier draft pedigree than his now-former teammate, Spence. The Yankees selected the 6’4″ righty with the No. 54 overall pick back in 2017, but Sauer didn’t develop as quickly as hoped. He was set back by 2019 Tommy John surgery and the canceled 2020 minor league season. He’s never topped 111 innings in a season, but Sauer rebuilt some prospect pedigree with a nice 2023 season that saw him pitch 68 1/3 innings of 3.42 ERA ball in Double-A. He whiffed 29.5% of his opponents, albeit against a less palatable 10.3% walk rate.
Like his former teammate, Sauer had a nice spring that made the decision relatively easy for his new club. In 10 2/3 innings, he held opponents to three earned runs (2.53 ERA) on 13 hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts. He opened the season in the Kansas City bullpen and has thus far pitched five innings, allowing a pair of runs in that time. Sauer has walked four of his 25 opponents and fanned just two thus far. It’s a small sample, of course, but he’ll need to reverse that early trend to hang onto his roster spot — especially if the Royals continue their hot start and find themselves contending into the summer.
Anthony Molina, RHP, Rockies (selected from Rays)
The 22-year-old Molina worked as a starter in the Rays’ system last year, taking the ball 28 times (27 starts) and pitching 122 innings with a 4.50 ERA. The undersized righty has garnered praise for a solid-average heater and above-average changeup, and he showed good command in 2023 after struggling with walks earlier in his minor league career. Molina continued to show good command in spring training (in addition to a massive 60.5% grounder rate), but the regular season has been brutal for him thus far. In three appearances, he’s been tattooed for a dozen runs on 13 hits and four walks with just two strikeouts. The Rockies can afford to be as patient as they want. They’re 4-13 on the season and were never expected to contend. Still, Molina will need to improve on his early performance in order to stick on the roster.
Nasim Nunez, INF, Nationals (selected from Marlins)
The Nationals have effectively played the season thus far with a 25-man roster. Nunez made the Opening Day squad but has been M.I.A. since. He’s appeared in just five of Washington’s 16 games and received only two plate appearances, going hitless in that meaningless sample. Nunez is an all-glove and speed prospect who hit just .224/.341/.286 in Double-A last season. He did go 52-for-59 in stolen base attempts, and scouting reports have long touted his defensive excellence at shortstop. He hit just .152/.200/.182 in 35 spring plate appearances.
It’s fair to wonder how long the Nats can essentially punt a roster spot by keeping Nunez on the bench, but like the Rockies, they’re not expecting to contend this season anyhow. One would imagine that from a pure developmental standpoint, they need to find a way to get Nunez into some games and start getting him some playing time, but for now, the team appears content to just hide the 23-year-old on the bench.
Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Cardinals (selected from Red Sox)
Fernandez, 25, has just four appearances out of the St. Louis bullpen so far and has been understandably deployed in low-leverage spots while he acclimates to the majors. He’s pitched fairly well in sparse duty, holding opponents to three runs (two earned) in 5 2/3 innings. Fernandez has averaged just under 96 mph on his heater, fanned seven opponents and issued three walks. His swinging-strike rate isn’t close to where it’s been in his minor league work, but his wipeout slider has been strong thus far. Fernandez has finished off eight plate appearances with that pitch, picking up four strikeouts and yielding only one hit. Nothing he’s done so far makes it seem like he’ll be cut loose anytime soon.
Justin Slaten, RHP, Red Sox (selected by Mets from Rangers; traded to Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons)
While most Rule 5 relievers are eased into low-pressure spots, that hasn’t been the case with the Sox and Slaten. He held a four-run lead to pick up a seven-out save in the team’s fourth game of the season, and the 6’4″ righty has since tallied three holds out of Alex Cora’s bullpen. In 10 1/3 innings, Slaten has allowed only one run on three hits and a walk with eight strikeouts. Add in 6 1/3 shutout innings in spring training, and he’s looked more like a seasoned veteran than a 26-year-old who entered the season with all of 8 1/3 innings above the Double-A level. Slaten has immediately made himself an important part of Boston’s roster, and while a prolonged slump could always change things, he looks like a keeper right now.
Stephen Kolek, RHP, Padres (selected from Mariners)
Kolek, who’ll turn 27 tomorrow, began his big league tenure with four runs in 1 2/3 innings over his first two appearances. He’s since bounced back with 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball, fanning 11 hitters against three walks along the way. He punched out nearly a quarter of his opponents in Triple-A last year and did so with a huge 57.5% ground-ball rate. He hasn’t picked up grounders at such a strong level just yet (43.5%), but San Diego probably isn’t second-guessing their decision to select him. He’s already picked up a pair of holds, and his recent run of success has dropped his ERA to 4.35. Command has been a problem for Kolek in the past, but he’s only walked 8.9% of his opponents against a 26.7% strikeout rate so far.
On the Major League Injured List
Shane Drohan, LHP, White Sox (selected from Red Sox): Drohan underwent shoulder surgery in late February and is on the 60-day IL. There’s no telling yet when he’ll be medically cleared to return. As noted in the intro, Drohan needs 90 days on the active roster to shed his Rule 5 designation; even if he spends the entire 2024 campaign on the injured list, his Rule 5 status will carry over into 2025 until he picks up those 90 active days.
Carson Coleman, RHP, Rangers (selected from Yankees): Coleman is also on the 60-day injured list. Unlike Drohan, it was well known at the time of his selection that he’d be IL-bound to begin the year. Coleman had Tommy John surgery last year and is expected to be out until midsummer at the least.
Returned to Original Organization
Deyvison De Los Santos, INF, Guardians (returned to D-backs): De Los Santos has big raw power but a well below-average hit tool. The Guardians selected him on the heels of a 20-homer campaign in Double-A with the D-backs, but he hit just .227/.227/.318 in 44 spring appearances before being designated for assignment, clearing waivers and getting returned to the Snakes. He’s had a big performance in a return-trip to Double-A.
2023 Rule 5 Draft Results
The 2023 Rule 5 draft will begin at 1pm Central time today at the Winter Meetings in Nashville.
As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and have played five professional seasons, and any players who signed at 19 years of age or older at signing that now have four professional seasons, who are not on a club’s 40-man roster are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.
The clubs will draft in reverse order of the 2023 standings, with no club obligated to make a selection when it’s their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2024 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors. Last year’s edition saw some key players change clubs, such as Ryan Noda going from the Dodgers to the Athletics and Blake Sabol going from the Pirates to the Giants.
This post will be updated as the draft continues. Here is the order…
1. Athletics: RHP Mitch Spence (Yankees)
2. Royals: RHP Matt Sauer (Yankees)
3. Rockies: RHP Anthony Molina (Rays)
4. White Sox: LHP Shane Drohan (Red Sox)
5. Nationals: SS Nasim Nuñez (Marlins)
6. Cardinals: RHP Ryan Fernandez (Red Sox)
7. Angels: pass
8. Mets: RHP Justin Slaten (Rangers); Mets later traded Slaten to the Red Sox for LHP Ryan Ammons* and cash considerations.
9. Pirates: pass
10. Guardians: 3B Deyvison De Los Santos (Diamondbacks)
11. Tigers: pass
12. Red Sox: pass
13. Giants: pass
14. Reds: pass
15. Padres: RHP Stephen Kolek (Mariners)
16. Yankees: pass
17. Cubs: pass
18. Marlins: pass
19. Diamondbacks: pass
20. Twins: pass
21. Mariners: pass
22. Blue Jays: pass
23. Rangers: RHP Carson Coleman (Yankees)
24. Phillies: pass
25. Astros: pass
26. Brewers: pass
27. Rays: pass
28. Dodgers: pass
29. Orioles: pass
30. Braves: pass
The minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft also occurred this afternoon. Those players will not go onto the selecting teams’ 40-man roster. A few former major leaguers changed uniforms. They include 1B Seth Beer going from the Diamondbacks to the Pirates while the Yankees took RHP Kervin Castro from the Astros.
* (Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Ammons was going to the Mets. Joel Sherman of The New York Post added that Ammons and cash were being exchanged for Slaten.
Rockies To Release Connor Seabold
The Rockies are releasing right-hander Connor Seabold, per Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. In doing so, they’ll open a spot on their 40-man roster to make a selection in the upcoming Rule 5 Draft.
Seabold, 27, was a third-round pick of the Phillies back in 2017 and has twice been traded — first to the Red Sox as part of the deal bringing Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree to Philadelphia, and second to the Rockies last winter in exchange for cash.
Earlier in his professional tenure, Seabold ranked among the top pitching prospects in both the Phillies and Red Sox systems, but elbow and forearm injuries shortened his 2021 and 2022 seasons. Seabold came to the Rockies with a solid track record in the upper minors, but his lone season with the Rox proved nightmarish both in Colorado and with their Triple-A affiliate in Albuquerque.
Seabold started 13 games and made another 14 relief appearances with Colorado this past season but was tagged for a gruesome 7.52 ERA in the process. He posted a sharp 6.9% walk rate but struggled with a well below-average 16.4% strikeout rate and a sky-high 1.96 HR/9. Seabold’s status as a pronounced fly-ball pitcher did him no favors at Coors Field, and he allowed hard contact a fair bit more often than the average big league pitcher (40.5%). Things didn’t go any better in Triple-A, where Seabold posted a 7.47 ERA in 31 2/3 frames.
As recently as 2022, Seabold tossed 86 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball with Triple-A Worcester in the Sox’ system, striking out 24.7% of his opponents against an excellent 5.3% walk rate. However, he’s also out of minor league options, so the Rox would’ve needed to carry Seabold on the Opening Day roster or else trade him, expose him to waivers or (as they’ll apparently do today) release him. Once he formally becomes a free agent, Seabold will be able to explore minor league deals with other organizations and perhaps gauge interest from teams in Japan and South Korea.
Phillies Return Noah Song To Red Sox
The Phillies have returned Rule 5 draft pick Noah Song to the Red Sox, reports WEEI’s Rob Bradford. Philadelphia designated Song for assignment earlier in the week. The teams both announced the move not long after Bradford’s initial report. Boston will not need to add Song to its 40-man roster.
A fourth-round pick back in 2019, Song pitched 17 innings with the Red Sox’ low-A affiliate in his debut effort before entering the Navy to fulfill his requirements as a graduate of the Naval Academy. Song was transferred to the selected naval reserves this year, allowing him to return to baseball — a development that transpired after Philadelphia had selected him in the Rule 5 Draft.
How the 26-year-old Song would get through the season was a fair question, given his lengthy layoff from pitching and his extremely minimal professional experience. The Phillies were high enough on the right-hander to take a chance on carrying him on the big league roster all year — as is required of Rule 5 picks — but a back strain ultimately wound up sidelining the righty for much of the season.
That injury gave the Phillies a month to pitch in the minors on a rehab assignment, but the results weren’t great. In 11 innings between Class-A, Double-A and Triple-A, Song allowed nine runs on 12 hits and 11 walks. He punched out 16 hitters, but there was clearly some understandable rust with regard to his command.
He’ll now head back to the Red Sox organization and pitch in their system with an eye toward an eventual big league debut as a member of the Red Sox. Song was ranked the No. 65 prospect in his draft class by Baseball America, only slipping to the fourth round due to questions surrounding his military status. Now that he’s pitching again, he’ll give the Sox another talented arm who they’ll hope can move quickly through the system.
Phillies Designate Noah Song For Assignment
The Phillies announced that Noah Song has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list, and the right-hander has now been designated for assignment. As a Rule 5 Draft pick, a team that claims Song must keep him on their active roster for the remainder of the season, or else Song’s rights will revert to the Red Sox (his original team) unless a proper trade is worked out. The Red Sox will also have Song’s rights automatically offered back if he clears DFA waivers.
Song was a fourth-round pick for the Sox in the 2019 draft, and after making his pro debut with 17 innings for Boston’s low-A affiliate that season, he then entered the Navy to fulfill his duty requirements as a member of the Naval Academy. This military service covered three years, and Song then restarted his baseball career after being transferred to the selective reserves. Some part-time active duty was still required, leading to some questions about how this status might work within the context of a minor league season after the Phillies selected him in the R5, though it became something of a moot point due to Song’s lengthy stint on the IL.
A back strain sidelined Song during Spring Training, and eventually led to his placement on the 60-day IL. During his rehab assignments, Song posted a 7.36 ERA over 11 combined innings at A-ball, Double-A, and Triple-A, with 11 walks and 16 strikeouts. It wasn’t enough for the Phillies to keep a roster spot for Song, and he’ll now hit the DFA wire for either a new stop in his career. Song’s past status as a highly-touted prospect might draw another team’s interest, though between his back injury and the issue of his military duty, it also seems possible that he’ll just end up back in Boston’s organization.
Brewers Return Gus Varland To Dodgers, Place Eric Lauer On Injured List
The Brewers announced Monday that they’ve returned Rule 5 righty Gus Varland to the Dodgers after he went unclaimed on waivers, placed lefty Eric Lauer on the 15-day injured list due to an impingement in his right (non-throwing) shoulder, and recalled right-hander Tyson Miller from Triple-A Nashville.
Varland, 26, earned a spot on the Brewers’ Opening Day roster after he whiffed 17 of his 35 opponents in spring training. He started the season with a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings, albeit with a less-impressive 5-to-5 K/BB ratio, and landed on the injured list in mid-April after a comebacker struck him on the pitching hand. He thankfully escaped major injury and was back on the mound about three weeks later, but the Cardinals torched him for nine runs in an outing that saw him record just two outs. That ballooned his ERA to 11.42, and the Brewers designated him for assignment the next day.
Twenty-eight other teams had the opportunity to claim Varland, though doing so would’ve meant committing to carrying him on the active roster, as his Rule 5 restrictions would’ve followed him to a new club. Once he went unclaimed, the Brewers had to offer him back to the Dodgers, who’ll now plug Varland back into the upper levels of their system and hope he can recapture some of that eye-catching spring form he showed with the Brew Crew. With Varland back in the Dodgers’ system, six of the 15 players selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft have been returned to their original organizations. There’s still another six on active big league rosters, plus three more on their teams’ Major League injured list.
Turning to Lauer, it’s unclear how serious his injury is or how long he is expected to be out of action, but it will be a frustrating and challenging development for the Brewers regardless. The club has already seen each of Brandon Woodruff, Wade Miley, Aaron Ashby and Jason Alexander head to the injured list this season and now Lauer will join them, putting yet another dent into the club’s rotation depth.
Lauer wasn’t off to a great start here in 2023, having posted a 5.48 ERA through his first 42 2/3 innings. His 21.9% strikeout rate, 10.7% walk rate and 25.4% ground ball rate are all worse than league average. He had been much better in the previous two seasons, posting a combined 3.47 ERA over 2021 and 2022 while striking out 23.8% of opponents and walking just 8.7%. Perhaps the shoulder issue has been bothering him prior to this IL placement as his velocity is down on all five of his pitches, relative to last year.
That at least gives some hope of him returning to his previous form once he has time to heal up, but the club will still have to improvise with their starting mix in the meantime. The rotation currently consists of Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser and Colin Rea, with one spot needing to be filled. Bryse Wilson has plenty of starting experience but has been in the bullpen with the big league club and can’t be sent down to get stretched out because he’s out of options. Janson Junk is on the 40-man and was called up for a spot start earlier this season, but he’s not throwing exceptionally well in Triple-A this year. He has a 3.86 ERA through 35 innings but a much higher 5.38 FIP thanks to a tepid 17.7% strikeout rate and .277 batting average on balls in play. Robert Gasser is one of the club’s more interesting pitching prospects but he has a 4.74 ERA in Triple-A so far this season and isn’t on the 40-man. Thomas Pannone isn’t on the 40-man either but has major league experience and currently sports a 2.66 ERA in Triple-A this season.
Rule 5 Draft Update: May 2023
It’s been more than a months since we last checked in on this year’s group of Rule 5 draftees and how they’re faring around the league. Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — those unfamiliar with the event can read up on the specifics here — and since last check there have been a few notable developments among the group. Let’s take a look…
Currently on a Major League Roster
Thaddeus Ward, RHP, Nationals (from Red Sox)
Since last update: 7 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 3 hits, 1 HR, 9 BB, 7 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 14 2/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 8 H, 2 HR, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21% walk rate, 51.5% ground-ball rate
Since last check in early April, Ward has had a three-walk appearance in which he pitched just one inning and a four-walk appearance in which he only recorded two outs. His command has been among the worst in baseball, as only two pitchers (min. 10 innings) have walked a greater percentage of their opponents: twice-DFA’ed right-hander Javy Guerra and injured Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet.
At last check, Ward was struggling with that command but still had fanned more than 30% of his opponents. He’s seen his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and average fastball all dip over the past five weeks. The Nationals have done a decent job hiding him — he’s appeared in just 25% of their games — and with a projected playoff chance under 1%, they might not care about the rough performance. Ward was one of the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects before a more than two-year layoff due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and 2021 Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.28 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 51 1/3 minor league innings in last year’s return effort. The Nationals are rebuilding anyway, and as long as they still like Ward’s stuff, they can afford to let him take his lumps in the big leagues even though he entered the season with just 41 innings above A-ball.
Ryan Noda, 1B/OF, Athletics (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 103 plate appearances, .221/.417/.416, 2 HR, 22.3% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 140 plate appearances, .215/.400/.421, 4 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 21.4% walk rate, 32.1% strikeout rate
The only five hitters in baseball with more walks than Noda’s 30 are Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Ian Happ, Matt Olson and Max Muncy. All but Muncy have more plate appearances. Noda’s massive walk rate leads MLB’s 171 qualified hitters … but his 32.1% strikeout rate is also tied for the seventh-highest. A whopping 56% of his plate appearances have ended in either a walk, strikeout or home run, making the 27-year-old the embodiment of a three-true-outcome player.
The strikeouts may be tough to watch, but Noda’s .400 OBP is tied for tenth among qualified hitters. He’s picked up 13 extra-base hits, is sitting on a strong .206 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) and boasts a 140 wRC+ despite his low batting average. Defensive metrics feel he’s been a competent, if not slightly above-average first baseman. Noda is getting on base 40% of the time he comes to the plate, and there’s no way the A’s (or any team) would take him off the roster as long as he’s doing that.
Jose Hernandez, LHP, Pirates (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 11 innings, 4.09 ERA, 9 hits, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 17 1/3 innings, 3.12 ERA, 15 hits, 2 HR, 27.5% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 38.3% ground-ball rate
Injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny — who was activated today — left Hernandez as the lone lefty option in Derek Shelton’s bullpen, but Hernandez has handled the role just fine. The Orioles tagged him for a pair of runs in an appearance that saw him record just one out last week, but Hernandez has generally been sharp despite skipping Triple-A entirely.
Hernandez is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball, and his 12.5% swinging-strike rate is better than the league average. He’s picked up a pair of holds for the Pirates and his 23.2 K-BB% ties him for 28th among 192 qualified relievers. He’s given up too much hard contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate), but he looks the part of a useful big league reliever right now and shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot.
Blake Sabol, C/OF, Giants (from Pirates)
Since last update: 66 plate appearances, .323/.364/.565, 4 HR, 6.1% walk rate, 39.4% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 100 plate appearances, .280/.330/.473, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 SB, 5% walk rate, 38% strikeout rate
Sabol has been on fire since our early-April look at the Rule 5’ers who made their Opening Day rosters, though he’s benefited from a mammoth .500 BABIP along the way. Still, the four long balls in that time show impressive pop, and the Giants have given him looks in both left field and at catcher.
Sabol has above-average sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-contact abilities, and both Statcast and FanGraphs give him above-average framing marks in his limited time behind the dish. However, he’s also needed a hefty .420 BABIP to get to his current production, and no player in baseball strikes out more often or swings and misses more often than Sabol has. Sabol’s 60.3% contact rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and if he can’t improve that mark and start to draw some more walks, it’s hard to imagine continuing anything close to this level of production. Regression looks quite likely for this version of Sabol, but he walked and made contact at much better clips in Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there’s still hope for improvement as he gains more experience.
Mason Englert, RHP, Tigers (from Rangers)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 13 hits, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 23 2/3 innings, 4.18 ERA, 21 hits, 6 HR, 17.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate
The Tigers have used Englert for more than an inning in nine of his 13 appearances, including eight outings of at least two innings (two of which were three-inning efforts). He’s provided the team with some length but also been used in a few leverage spots, evidenced by a pair of holds and, more regrettably, a pair of blown saves. While his strikeout rate is pedestrian, Englert’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.3% opponents’ chase rate are average or better. That doesn’t necessarily portend a major uptick in punchouts, but there’s probably more in the tank than his current 17.8% clip.
Englert has been far too homer-prone (2.28 HR/9), and that’s been his Achilles heel thus far. If he can rein in the long ball, he could give the Detroit bullpen some length for the balance of the season and perhaps even start some games should they need. The 23-year-old was a starter in the Rangers’ system prior to being selected by the Tigers last December.
Detroit has outperformed most expectations thus far, although at 19-22 with a -48 run differential, the Tigers still don’t look like viable contenders. If they’re hovering around the Wild Card race later in the year and Englert is struggling, perhaps they’d be tempted to move on, but for now he’s pitched well enough and the Tigers are far enough from the postseason picture that they can afford to keep him around even if he stumbles a bit.
Kevin Kelly, RHP, Rays (from Guardians)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 23 hits, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 22 1/3 innings, 4.84 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate, 42.1% ground-ball rate
Kelly, 25, has looked sharp in most of his appearances but has been tagged for multiple earned runs three times — including a pair of three-run clunkers. For a short reliever, that’s… less than optimal. The Rays have felt comfortable using him in plenty of leverage spots, however, evidenced by a quartet of holds, a save and another blown save.
Kelly’s 4% walk rate gives the air of pinpoint command, but he’s also plunked three hitters and has a below-average 58.4% rate of throwing a first-pitch strike. He hasn’t allowed a home run, in part because he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year. Kelly has avoided hard contact better than the average pitcher, eschewed walks and generally pitched better than his near-5.00 ERA might otherwise indicate. With the Rays firmly in contention, he’ll need to avoid a prolonged slump to stick on the roster, but it’s clear they believe he can be a solid reliever even with below-average velocity (92 mph average fastball) and strikeout abilities.
Currently on the Major League Injured List
- Nic Enright, RHP, Marlins (from Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergone treatment and been on a minor league rehab assignment as he rebuilds game strength. Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
- Noah Song, RHP, Phillies (from Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
- Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Cardinals (from Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez’s incredible story hit an abrupt roadblock when he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. The Yankees signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal last summer, but because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and had enough prior professional experience, he was Rule 5-eligible and scooped up by the Cardinals. They can retain his rights into next season but would need to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter in order to do so, and he wouldn’t be optionable to until he spent 90 days on the active MLB roster next season. That scenario seems highly unlikely.
Currently in DFA Limbo
- Gus Varland, RHP, Brewers (from Dodgers): Varland wowed the Brewers in spring training when he punched out 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%), but he landed on the injured list on April 16 — three days after MLBTR’s last Rule 5 check-in — when he was struck by a comebacker. The diagnosis was a hand contusion, and Varland was back on a big league mound about three weeks later. The 26-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings this year but did so with just five strikeouts against five walks. On May 15, the Cardinals clobbered him for nine runs on six hits (two homers) and three walks with one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. That outing sent Varland’s ERA careening to its current 11.42 mark. The Brewers designated him for assignment the next day. He’ll have to pass through waivers unclaimed — he’d retain all of his Rule 5 restrictions if claimed by another club — and offered back to the Dodgers after that.
Already Returned to their Former Club
- Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
- Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
- Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
- Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
- Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.
Cardinals’ Rule 5 Pick Wilking Rodriguez Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Cardinals righty Wilking Rodriguez, whom they selected from the Yankees in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft, underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery today and will miss the next four to six months, manager Oli Marmol announced to reporters (Twitter link via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat).
The surgery likely ends Rodriguez’s season. He’ll spend the entire season on the Cardinals’ big league injured list, which won’t wipe away his Rule 5 status. The Cards will have the right to keep Rodriguez if they’re comfortable carrying him on the 40-man roster all offseason and putting him on the Opening Day roster in 2024. He’d still need 90 days on the active roster next season before he’d shed his Rule 5 designation and be eligible to be optioned to the minors.
Rodriguez, 33, is a rather remarkable story. Eight years have elapsed since his last season of affiliated ball, and it’s been nine years since his lone MLB stint with the Royals. He’s been a regular in the Venezuelan Winter League and, more recently, in the Mexican League, where he’s been particularly impressive of late. From 2021-22, Rodriguez tossed 73 innings of 2.71 ERA ball, including a 2.01 ERA and 43.2% strikeout rate in 44 2/3 frames last year.
The Yankees saw that production and signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal back in August. However, Rodriguez had so much minor league service from with the Rays, Reds, Royals and Yanks themselves from 2007-15, that he was eligible for selection when the Rule 5 Draft rolled around. The Cardinals selected him, hoping to plug Rodriguez’s power arm into the bullpen. Things won’t play out that way, and only time will tell whether the Cardinals want to carry the experiment over into the 2024 campaign. For now, Rodriguez will accrue MLB service time and pay so long as he’s on the Cardinals’ Major League disabled list.
Reds Place Connor Overton On 15-Day IL
The Reds have placed right hander Connor Overton on the 15-day injured list with a right elbow strain, the team announced. They have recalled right hander Casey Legumina from Triple-A to take his place on the active roster.
It’s been a rough start to the season for the 29-year-old, giving up 14 earned runs in 11 innings over three starts. It’s an unfortunate development for a player who impressed to the tune of a 2.73 ERA over 33 innings late last year for the Reds. Now it seems the issue with his elbow may have been behind his struggles to start the year.
In his place, the Reds will call on Legumina to make his big league debut. Originally drafted by the Twins in the eighth round back in 2019, Legumina came over to the Reds in the Kyle Farmer deal this winter. The Twins had added him to their 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 draft, but he’s yet to appear in the big leagues.
Legumina’s been working in relief at Triple-A Louisville, putting up a 1.59 ERA in 5 2/3 innings. Even though he’s replacing a starter on the roster, it’s likely that Legumina will continue in a relief role with the Reds. Luke Weaver is set to come off the IL to take what would have been Overton’s next start, so the Reds can use an extra spot in their bullpen in the meantime.
Rule 5 Draft Update: April 2023
Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — an annual avenue for teams to potentially acquire talent from other organizations whose decision-makers did not place them on the 40-man roster. For those unfamiliar, in order to be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, a player must not be on his team’s 40-man roster and must have played in either parts of five professional seasons (if they signed at 18 or younger) or four professional seasons (if they signed at 19 or older). The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 by selecting their contracts to the 40-man roster typically falls in mid-November and spurs a good deal of player movement as teams jettison borderline players and non-tender candidates from their roster in order to protect younger prospects.
A player who is selected in the Rule 5 Draft must spend the entire subsequent season on his new club’s Major League roster and cannot be optioned to the minors. The player can technically spend time on the injured list as well, but at least 90 days must be spent on the active roster. If not, the player’s Rule 5 status rolls into the following season until 90 days on the active roster have been accrued. If a team at any point decides it can no longer carry a Rule 5 selection, that player must be passed through waivers and subsequently offered back to his original organization. Any other club can claim the player via waivers, but the same Rule 5 restrictions will apply to the claiming team.
Broadly speaking, the Rule 5 Draft rarely produces impact players. There are plenty of exceptions over the years, though, with names like Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Joakim Soria, Josh Hamilton and, more recently, Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Stephan thriving in new organizations. The Rule 5 Draft dates back more than a century and has even produced a handful of Hall of Famers: Roberto Clemente, Hack Wilson and Christy Mathewson.
It’s unlikely we’ll see any Cooperstown-bound players come from this year’s crop, but the teams who opted to select a player will be content if any of these names become a viable reliever or role player for the next several seasons. Here’s a look at this year’s group of 15 Rule 5 players and where they stand a couple of weeks into the 2023 season. We’ll do a few of these throughout the season, keeping tabs on which players survive the season and formally have their long-term rights transferred to their new clubs.
Currently on a Major League Roster
- Thaddeus Ward, RHP (Nationals, from the Red Sox): Ward was one of Boston’s best prospects a few years back but went the better part of two years without pitching due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and Tommy John surgery in 2021. He impressed in 51 minor league frames in his 2022 return, and many Red Sox fans were irked not to see him protected last November. The Nats selected him with the top pick in the Rule 5, and after a solid spring he’s tossed 5 2/3 innings and allowed three runs on four hits and a couple of walks. Ward is averaging 94.3 mph with his heater and has fanned seven of his 23 opponents (30.4%). The Nats are the exact type of rebuilding team that can afford to carry a player all season even if he struggles, so it’s quite likely that Ward will spend the year in their bullpen — and potentially get a look in the rotation sometime down the road.
- Ryan Noda, 1B/OF (Athletics, from the Dodgers): Like the Nats, the A’s aren’t going anywhere this season, so there’s every incentive for them to give Noda a long audition. The 27-year-old slugger hit .259/.395/.474 in Triple-A last season, and while he fanned in 28.2% of his plate appearances he also walked at a gaudy 16% clip. It’s been more of the same with the A’s. He walked 11 times but fanned on 26 occasions in 69 spring plate appearances. So far in the regular season, he’s belted a pair of homers, drawn seven walks and whiffed a dozen times in 37 A’s plate appearances. The A’s aren’t ones to shy away from a three-true-outcomes skill set, and they’ll see if Noda can do the Jack Cust dance for them moving forward.
- Jose Hernandez, LHP (Pirates, from the Dodgers): A rocky spring didn’t dissuade the Pirates from carrying Hernandez on their Opening Day roster, and so far it seems wise that they looked past that 8.18 Grapefruit League ERA. In 5 1/3 frames, Hernandez has held opponents to one run on five hits and a walk with four strikeouts. He’s averaged 96 mph on his heater. The 25-year-old Hernandez used that power fastball and a sharp slider to fan nearly 30% of his opponents in Double-A last year, and the Bucs are currently trusting him as one of two lefties in Derek Shelton’s bullpen. He’s already picked up his first big league hold.
- Blake Sabol, C/OF (Giants, from the Pirates): Sabol was technically selected by the Reds with the fourth pick in the draft, but Cincinnati and San Francisco had an agreed-upon deal sending Sabol to the Giants for a player to be named later. (Such swaps are common in the Rule 5 Draft.) The 25-year-old Sabol split the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A in Pittsburgh, batting a combined .284/.363/.497 with 66 games behind the dish and another 22 in the outfield. A monster spring showing (.348/.475/.630) and an injury to Mitch Haniger set the stage for Sabol to open the season in left field for the Giants. He’s hitting just .194/.265/.290 through his first 10 games and has split time between catcher and outfield pretty evenly. If the Giants feel he can legitimately play both spots, that’s just the type of versatility they crave when constructing their roster.
- Mason Englert, RHP (Tigers, from the Rangers): Englert isn’t a power arm but had a strong showing in the Rangers’ High-A and (briefly) Double-A rotations in 2022, when he pitched to a combined 3.64 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. The Tigers have used him out of the bullpen so far, and the results haven’t been great. He’s surrendered six runs in just 7 1/3 innings, including a trio of long balls. Englert was a 2018 fourth-rounder who’s generally regarded as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter. It’s feasible Detroit could get him a look in a starting role at some point. Englert entered the 2023 season with just 15 1/3 innings above A-ball, so some struggles aren’t exactly surprising.
- Kevin Kelly, RHP (Rays, from the Guardians): In a shocking and unprecedented development, the Rays look like they’ve plucked a pitcher from obscurity and perhaps found a keeper. Small sample caveats abound this time of season, but Kelly has now made four relief appearances of at least two innings (including today’s game) and yielded three runs on eight hits and no walks with seven punchouts. That comes on the heels of a 3.38 ERA and 21-to-6 K/BB ratio in 13 1/3 spring innings. The Guardians have a deep farm system and perennial 40-man crunch, which can lead to players like this going unprotected; Kelly posted a 2.04 ERA, 29.9% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate in 57 1/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A last year.
- Gus Varland, RHP (Brewers, from the Dodgers): The Brewers looked past Varland’s woeful 5.98 ERA in Double-A across the past two seasons, betting on the right-hander’s raw stuff rather than his results. So far, so good. Varland obliterated opposing hitters in spring training, whiffing a comical 17 of the 35 batters he faced (48.6%). So far during the regular season, he’s allowed a pair of runs on eight hits and two walks with four strikeouts through six innings out of the bullpen. Varland is averaging 95.9 mph on his fastball and has kept 11 of the 22 balls in play against him on the ground.
On the Major League Injured List
- Nic Enright, RHP (Marlins, from the Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergoing treatment and has said he hopes to “use his platform to provide hope and inspiration to others who fight their battle with cancer.” Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
- Noah Song, RHP (Phillies, from the Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
- Wilking Rodriguez, RHP (Cardinals, from the Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez is a remarkable story. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. During his past two seasons in Mexico, he hurled 73 innings with a 2.71 ERA — including 44 2/3 innings of 2.01 ERA ball with a 43.2% strikeout rate there in 2022. The Yankees signed him to a minor league deal in August, but because of his prior minor league experience from 2007-15, he was Rule 5-eligible and selected by the Cardinals. A right shoulder issue has Rodriguez on the 15-day IL right now. He’s yet to pitch for the Cardinals this year.
Already Returned to their Former Club
- Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
- Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
- Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
- Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
- Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.