Padres Rumors

The Padres are interested in retaining outfielder Jon Jay beyond this season and have engaged in preliminary discussions with him about a return, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. The veteran is scheduled to reach free agency this fall.

Jay, 31, was in the midst of a productive campaign for San Diego before a wayward pitch fractured his forearm. Generally regarded as a solid defender in center, Jay also ran up a useful .296/.345/.407 slash with a then-league-leading 24 doubles over 291 plate appearances. He has been working his way back since hitting the DL in late June, and is expected to return in early or mid-September.

Prior to the injury, Jay seemed like a quality trade piece for the Friars. And there still seems to be at least an outside shot at a deal materializing over the next five days. (He could still be traded after the calendar flips to September, but an acquiring team would not be able to use him on its postseason roster.) This latest news, however, suggests that San Diego may instead keep Jay around — though he could certainly be dealt and then re-signed.

It’s not immediately clear whether the club is interested in keeping Jay from reaching the open market, or instead hopes to get a head start on free agent talks. Manager Andy Green suggested the latter, labeling it “an offseason discussion” to be had at year end. And Jay seems to be inclined to test the free agent waters, even if he sees a return to San Diego as a desirable possibility.

While Jay said it was “great” to be approached, he went on to explain that he’d likely need to weigh the alternatives. “Obviously, with free agency, you wait so long to get to this point as a player, you want to see what’s out there,” said Jay. “But at the same time, I feel very comfortable here. I do like it a lot here, so this is definitely something my wife and I will discuss when we’re making those decisions.”

As Lin well explains in the above-linked post, it is a bit surprising at first glance to learn of the Padres’ interest in retaining Jay. The organization has a fair number of untested but rather intriguing outfielders kicking around at or near the major league level, and doesn’t seem primed to contend in 2017. It seems, though, that Jay made quite an impression both on and off the field.

And while the injury was certainly a freak occurrence, it may limit his earning power somewhat and leave an opportunity for the team to realize some value if it does ultimately strike a deal. Though the overall free agent market is rather thin, there are a number of quality outfielders available, so it’ll be interesting to see how things develop with regard to Jay, who ought to draw fairly wide interest from a variety of teams.

AUGUST 21: The bone in Jay’s forearm has fully healed and he could return by the first week of September, Padres manager Andy Green said Sunday (Twitter link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com).

AUGUST 16, 10:06pm: Jay’s imaging results were clean, Lin adds on Twitter, but he still needs to regain sufficient flexibility to move toward a return. It is still possible he could be back by the first week of September, per the report.

8:36pm: Padres outfielder Jon Jay didn’t receive the news he hoped for when his fractured right forearm was examined today, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter. When he was placed on the DL, the hope was that Jay might be back by this point. But after a CT scan and consultation, Jay was not cleared to hit, making mid-September a more realistic target for his return.

While a slight delay in a rehab timeline for a player on an out-of-contention team isn’t generally of much transactional relevance, Jay’s situation is somewhat different. The Padres have been perhaps the most aggressive seller in baseball, and Jay had looked like a solid trade asset — and a nice target for buyers to pursue.

Over his 291 plate appearances on the year, the left-handed-hitting Jay owns a .296/.345/.407 batting line that checks in just above league average. With a solid glove that plays in center, that makes him a useful piece for the right club.

Because he’s now facing continued uncertainty, teams probably won’t be willing to put in a claim on Jay with just over $1.75MM left on his salary. If he clears waivers, he can be dealt freely, but teams may not be willing to give up much of anything when Jay hasn’t even begun swinging the bat. Once the calendar flips to September, though, an acquiring team wouldn’t be able to utilize him on a post-season roster.

Looking beyond the trade market, the downgraded prognosis also represents a blow to Jay’s efforts to boost his free agent stock. The 31-year-old had been on track to draw solid interest as a player who could start or represent a high-quality fourth outfielder. He may still be able to push for a multi-year deal, but without a month or more to lay down more plate appearances after the injury, his market standing will likely be somewhat tamped down.