- The NL West-rival Padres also seem primed to take some risks on pitching (and in other areas), and Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the organization was one of many to send scouts to watch free agent reliever Greg Holland in his recent showcase. San Diego has done well recently in finding undervalued assets for the bullpen, and a targeted bet on someone like Holland could make sense — though he’ll presumably draw wide interest given his lofty established ceiling. Meanwhile, the Pads may also consider trade offers for their own controlled arms; Lin mentions Ryan Buchter, Brad Hand, and Brandon Maurer as pitchers who have “consistently drawn outside interest.” Though GM A.J. Preller didn’t exactly suggest that the team would be looking to deal, he acknowledged that clubs have come calling. “There’s definitely been clubs checking in on our bullpen,” he said. “They saw the jobs those guys did this year.”
Padres Rumors
Padres Will Not Extend Qualifying Offers To Rosales, Jay, Richard, Jackson
- The Padres have “some interest” in retaining Adam Rosales, Jon Jay, Clayton Richard and Edwin Jackson, but will not be extending qualifying offers to any of them, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. That comes as no surprise, since none of them profile as the kinds of upper-echelon players who typically get qualifying offers. Nonetheless, several of them were useful for the Padres in 2016. Rosales and Jay were both solid complementary pieces — Rosales hit a surprising 13 home runs in 248 plate appearances while playing six positions, and Jay produced a fine .339 OBP, although he missed two months with a fractured forearm. Richard, too, helped after arriving as a free agent in August, posting a 2.52 ERA in 53 2/3 innings down the stretch, although with underwhelming peripherals. Of the four, only Jackson clearly struggled, with a 5.89 ERA, 6.6 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 73 1/3 innings. Jackson has voiced interest in returning to the Padres next season.
Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
Since four consecutive winning seasons to begin the Petco Park era, including a pair of division championships, the Padres have had a losing record in eight of the last nine years—they won 90 games in 2010, but fell short of the playoffs after a late-season collapse—while playing very few meaningful games in a beautiful ballpark. Are there any reasons to believe that good times are ahead for this organization?
Guaranteed Contracts
- None
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)
- Tyson Ross, SP (5.126) – $9.6MM
- Alexi Amarista, IF/OF (5.040) – $1.6MM
- Derek Norris, C (4.102) – $4.0MM
- Hector Sanchez, C (4.018) – $900K
- Carter Capps, RP (4.007) – $1.0MM
- Brett Wallace, 1B (4.003) -$1.3MM
- Wil Myers, 1B (3.104) – $4.7MM
- Brad Hand, RP (3.092) – $1.4MM
- Brandon Maurer, RP (3.089) – $1.7MM
- Christian Friedrich, RP (3.046) – $2.0MM
- Oswaldo Arcia, OF (3.020) – $1.4MM
- Yangervis Solarte, 3B (3.000) – $2.7MM
- Non-tender candidates: Amarista, Arcia, Sanchez, Wallace
Other Financial Commitments
- James Shields, SP: Owed $22MM through 2018 (traded in 2016)
- Matt Kemp, OF: Owed est. $7.5MM through 2019 (traded in 2016)
- Melvin Upton Jr., OF: Owed $11.45MM in 2017 (traded in 2016)
- Jedd Gyorko, 2B: Owed $7.5MM through 2019 (traded during 2015-16 offseason)
- Hector Olivera, OF: Owed $28.5MM through 2020 (released in 2016)
Free Agents
San Diego Padres Depth Chart; San Diego Padres Payroll Information
General manager A.J. Preller has spent the past year digging his team out of the hole that resulted from the Padres’ premature “win-now” approach during his first offseason on the job, while also overseeing the rebuild of a team that has had very little success drafting, signing or acquiring young talent over the past couple of decades. He was also suspended 30 days by Major League Baseball for failure to disclose player medical information in trade discussions.
The results of Preller’s rebuild, thus far, are promising. While the Padres are still paying a lot of money to several players who are no longer with the team, they have also shed the payroll of any long-term commitments and opened roster spots for younger players. Carlos Asuaje and Manuel Margot, both acquired from the Red Sox in last offseason’s Craig Kimbrel trade, should make an impact at the Major League level in 2017. The same goes for a handful of players who were picked up off the scrap heap and given an audition in 2016, including Ryan Buchter, Christian Friedrich, Brad Hand, Luis Sardinas and Ryan Schimpf.
As for how the medical information scandal affects the team during the upcoming offseason, we can only speculate. It might have very little impact, if any at all. The trades that Preller absolutely had to make, for purposes of the rebuild, have already been made. He no longer has to sell a fellow general manager on why they should take on a high-priced player no longer in the prime of his career while giving up something of value in return. In addition, the urgency to finalize a trade is much lower in the offseason than during the season, particularly one close to the trade deadline. Medical records can be reviewed more thoroughly, and teams can utilize their own medical staff to assess the players involved.
One player that Preller could have a hard time moving is catcher Derek Norris, who is expected to lose his starting job to defensive standout Austin Hedges, who also raked in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League this year. Norris finished with a slash line of .186/.255/.328, which is probably the biggest reason why Preller was unable to trade him during the season. Carrying Norris as the backup catcher is still a possibility with Christian Bethancourt potentially taking on a hybrid catcher/outfielder/relief pitcher role. However, a backup catcher making $4MM per season isn’t ideal for any small-market club, even one with a payroll as open as the Padres, and there is probably enough of a market for Preller to find a match in trade talks.
Moving Norris could prove to be a challenge, but Preller should field plenty of calls from general managers interested in the team’s plethora of talented position players with multiple years of club control. Between Asuaje (2B/3B), Alex Dickerson (LF/1B), Travis Jankowski (CF/LF), Margot (CF), Wil Myers (1B/LF/RF), Hunter Renfroe (RF/LF), Schimpf (2B/3B), Yangervis Solarte (3B/2B/1B) and Cory Spangenberg (2B/3B), the Padres have nine players to fill six starting jobs (1B, 2B, 3B, CF, LF, RF).
Manager Andy Green has stated that only Myers, an NL All-Star and Gold Glove finalist in his first full season as a first baseman, and Solarte (.808 OPS in 109 games) are guaranteed lineup spots next season. While they currently form the core of the Padres’ lineup, both players would likely be in high demand if the Padres were to shop them. With three years of club control remaining for each player, the price tag would be high. On a team that appears to be at least another year or two away from contending, it wouldn’t be a surprise if any players who aren’t guaranteed to be around past 2019 are dealt.
Re-signing free agent Jon Jay, who the team has expressed interest in bringing back, would further increase the chances that one of the outfielders, most likely Dickerson or Jankowski, will be traded. However, a solid season by the 31-year-old, despite missing more than two months with a fractured forearm, should ensure that he’ll find an opportunity on a team who can give him a better shot at regular playing time.
If there is to be a new face in the Padres’ lineup in 2017, it could be at shortstop. At the least, the 23-year-old Sardinas has put himself into the mix with a strong showing—.287/.353/.417 in 120 plate appearances—after he was acquired from the Mariners last August for cash considerations. While his struggles in the big leagues during previous stints with the Rangers, Brewers and Mariners led to his stock dropping significantly since he was a highly-touted prospect a few years ago, the Padres’ sense of urgency to find a short-term and long-term answer at the position has likely decreased.
Signing Erick Aybar to a one-year deal or trading for Zack Cozart or Danny Espinosa—both are under contract for one more season—would be decent stop-gap options if the Padres aren’t sold on Sardinas. It’s also possible that the A’s would entertain offers for Marcus Semien, who hit 27 homers in 2016 and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season, with top prospect Franklin Barreto closing in on the majors. Rangers’ infielder Jurickson Profar, with whom Preller is very familiar from his Rangers days, could be another trade target who would fill the position for 2017 and beyond. The asking price on either of those players figures to be sizable, though. Bringing back free agent utilityman Adam Rosales, who enjoyed a breakout season (.814 OPS, 13 HR in 248 plate appearances) at age 33, would give the team additional coverage at shortstop, as well as a platoon option versus left-handed pitching.
While the Padres’ offense appears to be headed in the right direction, the starting rotation is full of question marks. Staff ace Tyson Ross recently underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery after making only one start in 2016 due to shoulder pain. The Padres are hoping he’ll be ready to go by the start of Spring Training. Even if he can return to health, there are no certainties to fill any of the remaining spots. A healthy Ross, who is eligible for free agency after the 2017 season, would likely become one of the top trade targets for contending teams if the Padres were to fall out of playoff contention.
Luis Perdomo, a Rule 5 pick who went from bullpen mop-up duty to the team’s best starter in the second half, should be penciled into a rotation spot. While opposing hitters had trouble against the heavy sinker that he relied on almost exclusively, he’ll likely need to utilize his secondary pitches a bit more often in year two. Christian Friedrich and Paul Clemens each showed, on occasion, why they were once considered very good prospects. They also showed why, in their late 20s, they’ve failed to establish themselves as effective big league pitchers. Still, both likely did enough to remain on the 40-man roster throughout the offseason and will get a chance to compete for spots next spring.
Jarred Cosart and Colin Rea, if he can avoid Tommy John surgery, will also compete for rotation spots, as will Cesar Vargas, who was very good in five of his seven early-season starts before being shut down with a strained flexor tendon. Michael Kelly, Dinelson Lamet and Walter Lockett, three prospects who began the season in the low minors and rose to Triple-A by season’s end, should also be in the mix.
The bullpen is in much better shape than the rotation, thanks to Brandon Maurer, who settled into the closer’s role nicely after Fernando Rodney was traded (3.09 ERA, .572 opponent’s OPS, 13 saves in last 32 appearances) and talented lefties Buchter (2.86 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 20 holds) and Hand (2.92 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 21 holds). There’s a chance that Hand could move to the rotation—2016 was his first season working exclusively as a reliever—but Maurer’s failed attempt last spring, followed by a very shaky early-season performance once he returned to the bullpen, could have an affect on that decision.
A return to health from Carter Capps, who was acquired from the Marlins in the Andrew Cashner trade, could boost this group to an elite level. Prior to an elbow injury late in the 2015 season that eventually required Tommy John surgery last March, the 26-year-old right-hander had begun to establish himself as one of the most dominant relief pitchers in the game (1.16 ERA, 2.0 BB/9, 16.8 K/9 in 30 appearances). He’s expected to return early in the 2017 season, if not by Opening Day, and could push Maurer for the closer’s job at some point.
Phil Maton, a 20th-round draftee in 2015, is rising quickly through the system and could find himself in the Padres’ bullpen sometime in 2017. In 38 appearances between Low-A, High-A and Triple-A, the right-hander posted a 1.74 ERA with 1.9 BB/9 and 13.6 K/9. He’s also been quite effective in the Arizona Fall League, allowing only one run on four hits with no walks and eight strikeouts over seven innings.
As is the case with many teams, starting pitching will be the Padres’ top priority this offseason. It’s a safe bet, however, that they won’t be in the bidding for top free agent starters Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson or Ivan Nova. Instead, they’ll probably look to add at least two starting pitchers from a long list of free agents with diminished value or via the trade market, utilizing their position player depth as trade chips.
It wouldn’t be a surprise if one of Edwin Jackson or Clayton Richard returned. At times, Jackson looked like the pitcher that the Cubs signed for $52MM before the 2013 season. Other times, he resembled the pitcher they released with a year-and-a-half remaining on the deal. Richard, one of the team’s most reliable starting pitchers several years ago before injuries derailed his career, was particularly impressive with a 2.41 ERA in nine starts after the Padres picked him up late in the season. While Petco Park is not nearly as pitcher-friendly as it was during his first stint with the team, the 33-year-old lefty appears very comfortable there.
San Diego has always been a preferred choice for pitchers looking to rebuild value, although the weather and the opportunity to pitch at the top of the rotation are the Padres’ strongest selling points these days. The return of 2007 Cy Young award winner Jake Peavy would make sense, as would the signing of Jorge De La Rosa, an NL West veteran with a career 3.22 ERA at Petco Park. Both are former staff aces and, despite disappointing seasons, finished the year in good health and could be anxious to prove that they still have something left in the tank in their mid-30s.
The Padres could take a step forward in 2017 with Margot, Myers and Renfroe leading the offense and Capps, Maurer and Buchter closing the door on opponents late in the game. How much of a step forward will depend on their yet-to-be-determined starting rotation.
Padres Notes: Preller, Trade Talks, Coaching Staff, Rea
Earlier today, we checked in on the Padres’ interesting experimentation with catcher Christian Bethancourt, who not only spent time in the outfield last year but is preparing to work as a reliever in winter ball action. And last night, we learned about some roster-trimming moves. Here are a few more notes out of San Diego:
- Padres GM A.J. Preller says that he doesn’t expect his recent suspension over medical disclosures in trade talks to have any carryover effects this winter, as AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports. Reiterating his position that there was never any intent on the team’s part to deceive other clubs, he said that the Padres are “going to be very committed to correcting” their medical record-keeping and will “be best in class … from an admin[istrative] standpoint, a reporting standpoint, [in] following guidelines.”
- Preller further explained that the Padres are anticipating a busy winter. The GM noted that ten rival organizations have already “check[ed] in with us” on trade possibilities since he was reinstated. The trade market figures to be “fairly active,” he said, given the weak free agent class.
- The Padres parted ways with two coaches — Tarrik Brock and Eddie Rodriguez — but otherwise intend to keep their field staff in place, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. First-year skipper Andy Green will remain at the helm, with bench coach Mark McGwire, pitching coach Darren Balsley, hitting coach Alan Zinter, third base coach Glenn Hoffman, and bullpen coach Doug Bochtler all set to reprise their roles as well.
- Colin Rea, whose injury in his first start with the Marlins after a summer trade played a major role in Preller’s suspension, is still working toward avoiding Tommy John surgery. He recently completed a 40-pitch bullpen session, Lin notes in the above-linked post. The hope is that he’ll at least be able to partake in live BP sessions before being shut down for the winter, with some possibility he’ll even appear in AFL or winter league action. If all goes well, Rea will hold off on a TJ procedure in hopes of enjoying a full 2017 season.
Christian Bethancourt To Pitch In Panama Winter League
Earlier this month, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune reported that the Padres were mulling a role change for catcher Christian Bethancourt that would allow him to catch, play third base and also pitch. Today, Lin reports that Bethancourt has been up to 97 mph in while facing live hitters and is planning to pitch in the Panama Winter League as the next step in the process (Twitter links).
Bethancourt is working to develop a changeup, Lin writes, but it’s no surprise to see that his velocity is already lighting up the radar gun. As a prospect, Bethancourt was lauded for having one of the best arms in all of baseball and routinely drew an 80 grade for his arm strength (on the 20-80 scouting scale). That, of course, doesn’t mean that he’ll be able to command his fastball effectively if he does attempt to pitch in the Majors, and he’ll need at least one additional pitch in order to succeed, hence the work on the changeup.
While not all transitions of this nature are successful, Bethancourt would hardly be the first player to start his career behind the plate but end up working on the mound. Kenley Jansen is the most notable instance of that jump, but others such as Chris Hatcher, Jason Motte and Troy Percival began their careers as catchers. Of course, this type of conversion is also typically made earlier in a player’s career; Jansen’s final game as a catcher came in 2009 at the age of 22, for instance. Hatcher did catch up until the year 2010 — his age-25 season and the same age at which Bethancourt presently finds himself. That similarity notwithstanding, Hatcher caught just five games in the Majors before making a permanent move to the mound. Bethancourt, on the other hand, has already played in 153 Major League games and racked up 482 plate appearances.
There’s little in the way of recent precedent for a player being able to work as a pitcher, a catcher, an infielder and even an outfielder — the Padres put Bethancourt in the outfield 12 times this season, and he logged a combined 73 2/3 innings between the two corners — but if Bethancourt is able to pull it off with any degree of success, he’d become an enormously valuable asset for the Friars. Certainly, there’s quite a bit of work to be done on his end before that notion even approaches reality, but pitching in Panama this winter will give the club a chance to evaluate him in a game setting and determine the viability of Bethancourt serving as a mound option in the near future. Gaining experience in Panama and during Spring Training will be especially important for Bethancourt, as he’s out of minor league options and therefore can’t be sent down to further hone his skills as a pitcher in the minors.
Padres Outright Jemile Weeks, Jake Smith, Jose Dominguez
The Padres have announced that three players were outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster. Infielder Jemile Weeks and righties Jake Smith and Jose Dominguez all lost their spots.
Weeks, a 29-year-old switch hitter, managed only seven hits and three walks in 57 plate appearances on the year for San Diego. He has mostly functioned as a journeyman depth option over the last several years after failing to follow up on a highly promising rookie campaign with the A’s back in 2011. Weeks elected free agency, so he’ll be back on the open market this winter.
The 26-year-old Smith received his first brief crack at the majors this year, but only took the ball four times for the Padres. He struggled badly at Double-A for the Giants, with San Diego claiming him in July. While Smith’s six appearances at the same level in the Padres organization were more successful, it wasn’t enough for the team to dedicate a MLB roster slot to him going forward.
Dominguez, like Weeks, took free agency. The 26-year-old has appeared in the majors in each of the last four years and threw a career-high 35 2/3 innings in 2016. The results weren’t there, though, as he worked to a 5.05 ERA with just twenty strikeouts against 17 walks.
Indians Notes: Santana, Kluber, Miller, Lucroy
The Indians are at least opening the door to the possibility of utilizing Carlos Santana in left field when the World Series moves to Wrigley Field and takes the DH off of the table, as Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports. It doesn’t seem as if there are any clear plans to play him there — he hasn’t roamed the outfield grass since the minors — but the team is getting him some reps just in case. Even if Cleveland won’t start Santana in left just in order to get his and Mike Napoli’s bats into the same lineup, it’s not impossible to imagine a late-game substitution scenario that calls for such a bold move.
Here’s more from Cleveland with the fall classic set to get underway:
- How exactly did World Series Game 1 starter Corey Kluber end up with the Indians? Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch compiles something of an oral history of the 2010 trade that brought the relatively unknown righty to Cleveland. With the Padres and Cardinals each looking for veteran assets, the Indians were able to facilitate their needs by taking Kluber. Then-Cleveland GM Chris Antonetti said at the time that he preferred not to be on the prospect end of such trades, though certainly that move helped set up the team’s current run — which included a deal that sent young talent out for the player who’s the subject of the next bullet.
- We’ve increasingly heard chatter — as is typical this time of year — about how postseason teams can serve as a model for other organizations in the ensuing winter. While I’d argue that the value of premium relief arms seems worth paying attention to, it does seem curious to hear discussion of whether teams could look to emulate the specific pen usage of roving Indians out-machine Andrew Miller. That approach isn’t likely to carry over into the regular season, Russell Carleton of Baseball Prospectus suggests (subscription required — and recommended) in a detailed and interesting analysis. Relievers are simply not as effective when they re-appear for a second inning of work, Carleton finds, and managers rightly need to be more judicious in deploying their most valuable relief-pitching-innings — those handled by their best relievers — over the course of a long season. Unless and until some team decides to really push the boundaries of how much of an innings workload a reliever can handle, he says, we’ll likely continue to see a lot of one-inning relievers in relatively well-defined roles (for the bulk of the year, at least).
- When the Indians went and got Miller, it sent a meaningful message to the team’s players, second baseman Jason Kipnis tells MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (Twitter link). But it came at a real price that could end up hurting down the line — as is the nature of deadline deals (see Kluber, Corey). Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports that Cleveland offered much more than any other team to grab Miller. But that was what it took to pry him loose, since the Yankees were under no obligation to swing a deal for a player with two more seasons of control remaining. With the Giants unwilling to move Joe Panik and the Nationals not interested in boosting their offer of young pitching talent, New York would’ve held pat had the Indians not offered up a prospect package made up of outfielder Clint Frazier, southpaw Justus Sheffield, and right-handers Ben Heller and J.P. Feyereisen.
- Before getting that deal done, of course, the Indians had a pact in place for catcher Jonathan Lucroy that only fell through when he exercised his no-trade protection to nix it. As ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports, Lucroy doesn’t regret utilizing the clause — even with the Indians now in the World Series. The veteran receiver landed in a good spot, helping the Rangers lock up an AL West title, and he’s not interested in revisiting things now. “I’m not worried about it at all,” he said. “It’s over with and in the past.”
Injury Updates: Cosart, Rea
- Padres right-hander Jarred Cosart will need about six weeks of recovery after undergoing surgery to clean up his right elbow, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell writes. That timeframe should put Cosart on track to be fully prepared for the start of Spring Training.
- In other Padres injury news from Cassavell, the club has set a December 1 deadline for righty Colin Rea to become fully healthy. If Rea hasn’t pitched in Arizona Fall League games, winter ball games or at least thrown some intensive batting-practice sessions against live hitters, the Padres may decide it’s time for Rea to undergo Tommy John surgery. Rea has spent the last few months trying to fix his elbow problems without having to resort to a Tommy John procedure, instead opting for a PRP treatment and more basic rest and rehabilitation. It was this same elbow injury that forced the Padres to re-acquire Rea after initially dealing him to the Marlins as part of the Andrew Cashner trade.
Teams Adjusting How They Negotiate With Padres, Preller
Padres GM A.J. Preller is back on the job now that his 30-day suspension has ended, though both Preller and the organization may need more time to repair their reputations around baseball. ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required) reports that several teams will adjust how they negotiate with San Diego from now on, while one team has simply refused to consider any trades with Preller and the Padres. There is also still “a river of industry speculation” that the Padres could face lawsuits about their handling of player medical information. Here’s some more from around the NL West…
Colin Rea On Track To Avoid Tommy John
- The Padres are still finding cause to hope that righty Colin Rea can stave off Tommy John surgery, which he has sought to do through a combination of platelet-rich plasma treatment and rehab/rest. As AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweets, the team is deciding just how to give him some postseason pitching work to help make a final decision. Rea could appear in the Arizona Fall League, take part in live BP, or even head out for a partial winter ball run. Regardless, Rea is set to throw competitively in about three weeks’ time.
