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Padres Rumors

Brewers Trade Josh Hader To Padres

By Steve Adams | August 1, 2022 at 2:35pm CDT

After years of rumors, the Brewers have finally traded All-Star closer Josh Hader, sending him to the Padres in a stunning deadline blockbuster. The two teams announced Monday that Hader is on his way to San Diego in exchange for the Padres’ own closer, Taylor Rogers, as well as righty Dinelson Lamet, pitching prospect Robert Gasser and outfield prospect Esteury Ruiz. In order to clear a 40-man roster spot, Milwaukee transferred reliever Miguel Sanchez from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list.

Josh Hader | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a massive get for the Padres, and while it’s a genuine surprise to see Milwaukee move its closer while holding a three-game lead in the National League Central, the reasoning behind the trade is fairly straightforward. Hader’s $11MM salary figures to jump north of $15MM next season in his final year of club control, and a generally budget-conscious Brewers club may not be willing to dedicate $15-17MM to a single reliever when that represents such a notable portion of the overall payroll.

The Brewers, of course, could have held Hader into the winter and made him available at that point, but the allure of landing Hader for multiple postseason pushes undeniably allowed them to seek a higher price right now. To that end, they’re acquiring a closer of their own in Rogers, who — like Hader — has struggled of late but has an excellent track record spanning several seasons. Milwaukee also adds a high-octane arm in Lamet, albeit one that’s been plagued by injuries, and two of the Padres’ top ten prospects in Gasser and Ruiz, which breathes some much-needed life into a farm system that has generally not been considered among the sport’s strongest.

It’s the sort of trade we’re accustomed to seeing smaller-payroll clubs like the Rays and Guardians make with regularity: cash in a coveted player’s trade value when he has multiple seasons of club control and simultaneously backfill that spot on the roster with other big league help. It’s an immediate downgrade on the roster overall, but this type of simultaneous buy-and-sell tightrope act has been one of the keys to Tampa Bay, Cleveland and even Milwaukee itself remaining competitive despite rarely being able to spend top-of-the-market money.

“The players we are receiving in this trade help ensure that the future of the Milwaukee Brewers remains bright while not compromising our desire and expectation to win today,” Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns said in a statement announcing the deal. “This mix of present Major League talent and high-level prospects furthers our aim to get as many bites of the apple as possible and, ultimately, to bring a World Series to Milwaukee. Trading good players on good teams is difficult, and that is certainly the case with Josh. We also recognize that to give our organization the best chance for sustained competitiveness, to avoid the extended down periods that so many organizations experience, we must make decisions that are not easy.”

Hader, 28, is sitting on a career-worst 4.24 ERA, though that mark was inflated by an uncharacteristic pair of consecutive meltdowns earlier this month, wherein he was tagged for a staggering nine earned runs in one-third of an inning. Outside that pair of disastrous outings, Hader has a 1.87 ERA in 33 2/3 innings. He didn’t even allow a run this season until June 7 and has punched out a massive 41.8% of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate.

Dating back to Hader’s 2017 debut, no one in baseball has topped his enormous 44.1% strikeout rate — nor have they come especially close to doing so. (Craig Kimbrel is second at 40.6%.) Hader’s 2.48 ERA in that time is eighth-best among 309 qualified relievers, and no one has topped his 19.5% swinging-strike rate.

The name who trails Hader in that massive swinging-strike rate — now-former teammate Devin Williams — may have something to do with today’s trade as well. The Brewers surely wouldn’t have been as comfortable moving Hader were it not for Williams’ own breakthrough as one of the sport’s most dominant relief pitchers. Armed with a lethal changeup (nicknamed the “Airbender”), Williams ranks fourth in strikeout rate (39.9%), second in swinging-strike rate (18.6%) and second in ERA (1.94) among that same subset of qualified relievers just mentioned with regard to Hader.

There’s certainly an argument to be made that Milwaukee should have simply kept Hader and trotted out that dominant duo throughout the rest of the season and the forthcoming playoff run, but the blend of high-upside, immediate replacements (Rogers, Lamet) and the long-term value of adding a pair of well-regarded prospects to the system proved too alluring for Stearns, GM Matt Arnold and the rest of the Milwaukee staff.

Taylor Rogers | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Turning to that collection of newly acquired talent, the Brewers will surely hope that Rogers can shake off the recent slump that has plagued him over the past two months. Rogers, from 2018-21 with the Twins, wasn’t far behind Hader on the list of the sport’s best left-handed relievers. He worked 197 2/3 frames during that time, pitching to a 2.91 ERA with a 31.2% strikeout rate, a 4.9% walk rate and 50 saves. A torn tendon in his pitching hand cut last season short for Rogers, however, and he was shipped from the Twins to San Diego on the eve of Opening Day this year.

Rogers took to his new environs brilliantly, pitching to a dominant 0.44 ERA with a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio through his first 20 1/3 innings. Since that time, however, he’s been clobbered for an 8.14 ERA in a nearly identical sample of 21 innings. Rogers still has an exceptional 25-to-5 K/BB ratio over that ugly stretch, however, and he’s only allowed one home run along the way. He’s been dogged by a sky-high .429 average on balls in play during this slump, but it’s still hard to overlook a stretch that has seen Rogers surrender runs in 13 of his past 22 appearances.

Still, Rogers’ track record is alluring, and perhaps the Brewers have their own idea about how to the lefty can get back on track. He’s a free agent at season’s end, making Rogers a pure rental — but he’s an ultra-affordable one, as the Twins covered all but $700K of his salary in that trade to the Padres.

Lamet, meanwhile, is another huge upside arm on whom the Brewers are buying low. The flamethrowing righty was a Cy Young candidate in the shortened 2020 season but went down with a biceps injury late that season and missed a significant portion of the 2021 campaign due to forearm strains.

Dinelson Lamet | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Lamet has yielded 13 earned runs in just 12 1/3 Major League innings this season, but he’s been dominant in Triple-A (0.77 ERA in 11 2/3 frames). His fastball, which averaged 97 mph in 2020, is down to an average of 95.3 mph this year. There are obviously plenty of red flags with Lamet, but if he can recapture anything resembling his 2020 form (2.09 ERA, 34.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate) while coming out of the Milwaukee bullpen, he’d be a formidable addition to the relief corps both this year and next, as he’s arbitration-eligible once more before free agency in the 2023-24 offseason.

Both Gasser and Ruiz were among the Padres’ top 10 prospects and will now also join the Brewers’ top 10. Gasser, 23, was the No. 71 overall pick in the 2021 draft and has held his own in the rotation with the Padres’ Class-A Advanced affiliate this season. In 90 1/3 innings, he’s notched a 4.18 ERA but a far more impressive 3.27 FIP, thanks largely to a gaudy 30.5% strikeout rate and a sharp 7.4% walk rate. Somewhat amusingly, Gasser doesn’t rely on velocity to find success but rather plus command and a plus breaking ball. Baseball America tabs his fastball in the 90-93 mph range and calls Gasser a high-probability fourth starter — one who could move quickly through the minors. He could be an option in the Milwaukee by late in the 2023 season and certainly by the 2024 campaign.

Ruiz, meanwhile, is an immediate option for the Brewers in center field. He’s already made his big league debut, and while he’s just 6-for-27 through his first few games, he obliterated Double-A pitching (.344/.474/.611 in 232 plate appearances) and Triple-A opposition so far in 2022 (.315/.457/.477 in 142 plate appearances). Ruiz, incredibly, has stolen 60 bases in just 77 minor league games this year and has already picked up the first of what should be quite a few big league steals as well. Add in average or better raw power, and it’s easy to see why Milwaukee was enamored of him — particularly given the team’s need in center field.

Ruiz isn’t a true center fielder and only moved to the outfield on a full-time basis last season after struggling as an infielder, but BA’s scouting report on him notes that he’s already making decent jumps and reads as he learns center field on the fly. Strikeouts were an issue for Ruiz earlier in his career, but he’s punched out at just a 17.4% clip in the minors so far this season and has reportedly made some changes to his approach and swing that have improved upon his bat-to-ball abilities.

Of course, it’s far from common to see a division-leading team part with one of the game’s best players at his position midway through the season, but the entire gambit for the Brewers is an upside play that could net them comparable production in 2022 and considerable long-term value thereafter.

For the Padres, it’s a pure short-term play with the goal of putting together a powerhouse postseason pitching staff. It’s also surely not the only move San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller will make between now and tomorrow’s deadline. He managed to add Hader without having to surrender any of the organization’s very top-end prospects — e.g. Robert Hassell III, C.J. Abrams, Jackson Merrill, James Wood, Luis Campusano — all of whom could be used as firepower to bring in a sizable pitching or outfield upgrade (e.g. Frankie Montas, Juan Soto).

It bears mentioning that the acquisition of Hader likely puts the Padres over the luxury tax threshold, even with Lamet’s salary going back to Milwaukee. That only serves as a further portent for significant dealing from Preller & Co., though. In all likelihood, the Padres are just getting started, and we shouldn’t expect this to be the only move of note for the Brewers either.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the Brewers were close to a trade of Hader. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that Hader was going to the Padres in exchange for Rogers, Lamet, Gasser and Ruiz (Twitter links).

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Milwaukee Brewers Newsstand San Diego Padres Transactions Dinelson Lamet Esteury Ruiz Josh Hader Miguel Sanchez Robert Gasser Taylor Rogers

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Angels Planning To Keep Shohei Ohtani, No Longer Listening To Offers

By Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald | August 1, 2022 at 1:25pm CDT

The Angels have listened to offers on reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani for the past several days, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that they’re no longer doing so. The Yankees, Padres and White Sox were among the teams to submit trade offers for Ohtani, per the report, but Heyman writes that owner Arte Moreno ultimately proved “unwilling” to part with Ohtani.

The fact that Ohtani is staying put is hardly shocking. Even when reports emerged of that the Angels were listening to trade offers, it still seemed unlikely that a deal would come together. Given Ohtani’s unprecedented contributions to the team in recent years, it was always expected that a massive package would have to be put on the table in order for the Angels to pull the trigger on a deal. With the Angels mired in another miserable season that’s seen them fall well out of contention, it made sense to listen to offers on the superstar given that he’s now just over a year away from free agency. Despite those three clubs apparently putting together serious offers, it seems none of them were close to the understandably high asking price of the Angels.

The reigning AL MVP, Ohtani is putting together another historic season to add to his already impressive list of accolades. His power has fallen off slightly, as his 22 home runs on the year puts him on pace to fall short of last year’s 46. But apart from that, his .255/.352/.495 slash line this year isn’t too far from last year’s .257/.372/.592. His 135 wRC+ this year is seventeen points behind last year, but still 35% better than the league average hitter. On the pitching side of things, he’s actually improved relative to the previous season. He’s dropped his ERA from 3.18 to 2.81, increased his strikeout rate from 29.3% to 36.4% and lowered his walk rate from 8.3% to 5.8%.

Given that he’s producing excellent results on both sides of the ball and making a modest $5.5MM salary, it’s hard to fathom a team that wouldn’t be interested in making use of his services. The Yankees are known to be looking for rotation help, having checked in on some of the top available names like Frankie Montas and Luis Castillo, before the latter was traded to the Mariners. They’ve also checked in on offensive upgrades, recently acquiring Andrew Benintendi. Acquiring Ohtani would have crowded the DH mix a little, though the Yanks were surely willing to find a way to work with that situation for such a historic player.

The Padres already have a rotation surplus but have been considering trading away from it as a way to reduce their payroll commitments. It’s possible that they could have combined an Ohtani trade with a trade of Blake Snell or Mike Clevinger, in order to get Ohtani into the rotation and then also upgrade the lineup.

The White Sox have a solid five-man rotation right now but have been exploring the market for upgrades anyway, with Michael Kopech perhaps working his way towards some load management as the season goes on. He’s already thrown 88 1/3 innings this year after only throwing 69 1/3 frames over the three previous seasons combined.

Regardless of how much sense Ohtani would have made for those teams, it doesn’t appear as though the Angels came close to a deal that they gave serious consideration to. It’s perfectly logical for them to want to hang onto such an unprecedented talent, though this decision won’t provide any long-term clarity. The Angels are still 43-59 and destined to finish another season watching the postseason from home. That will leave 2023 as the club’s last chance to build a winning roster around Ohtani, unless they are able to work out an extension.

That latter course will surely be appealing to Angels’ fans but will come with complications for the front office. The latest reporting indicated that Ohtani and his camp were looking to surpass Max Scherzer’s record for annual average value of a contract, $43.3MM. That number would be added to a payroll that already includes Mike Trout getting over $37MM per year through 2028 while Anthony Rendon getting paid similarly through 2026. That could leave the Halos paying around $120MM per season to just three players. That wouldn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for a team that’s never run an Opening Day payroll above $190MM. If an extension can’t be worked out, then perhaps Ohtani’s name will show up in trade rumors in more serious fashion one year from now.

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Padres, Joe Musgrove Agree To Extension

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | August 1, 2022 at 11:52am CDT

The Padres and right-hander Joe Musgrove have finalized a five-year, $100MM extension, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter links). The deal — which pays even $20MM salaries each year between 2023-27 — contains a full no-trade clause for the next four seasons, as well as limited no-trade protection for 2027. Heyman reported last Friday the parties were close on a deal at those terms. Musgrove, a client of Full Circle Sports Management, had been set to hit free agency at the end of the year.

Musgrove and the Friars have spent months kicking extension terms around, with progress seemingly ratcheting up around the All-Star Break. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported over the Break there was a belief on both sides a deal could get done before the start of the season’s unofficial second half. That obviously didn’t come to pass, but that evidently didn’t deter or meaningfully set back talks.

The five-year, $100MM price point registers as a bit of a surprise, as the first-time All-Star quite likely could’ve topped those numbers by a fair amount on the open market. Musgrove, however, is a San Diego-area native who has been open about his desire to remain with his hometown club. It’s certainly understandable if the opportunity at a nine-figure payday to remain in a place he’s comfortable was something he decided not to pass up, particularly with the strong no-trade protection.

Musgrove’s contract nevertheless checks in below those landed by a couple of the top starters on last year’s market, Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray. Gausman received a five-year, $110MM deal from the Blue Jays. Ray signed with the Mariners for five years and $115MM in a deal that also included an opt-out opportunity following the 2024 season. Aside from the record-setting three-year deal for Max Scherzer, the Gausman and Ray contracts represented the top commitments to free agent starters last offseason.

One could argue that Musgrove is a better long-term bet than either hurler. Like Ray, he’ll begin his new deal with his age-30 season; Gausman’s contract started at age 31. The San Diego righty carries a career-low 2.65 ERA through 115 1/3 innings this season, a bit below the respective 2.81 and 2.84 marks posted by Gausman and Ray last year. Both Gausman and Ray missed bats at a better clip than Musgrove has, but the latter has a slightly better walk rate than the 2021 free agents.

Musgrove’s platform season is shaping up to be similar to those of Gausman and Ray, and Musgrove may have a slightly better long-term track record. Ray had an awful year during the shortened 2020 campaign in which he posted a 6.62 ERA. He’d shown top-of-the-rotation flashes earlier in his career, but his control and home run rates fluctuated a fair amount. Gausman had a very strong shortened season, but he’d struggled during the previous full campaign. Musgrove has a sub-4.00 ERA in each of his past three years, with a cumulative 3.08 figure through 58 starts since the beginning of 2020.

In that context, the extension looks like a strong investment for the Friars. That’s particularly true given the Padres’ long-term rotation uncertainty. San Diego could lose both Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger to free agency this winter. Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are only under contract for a season and a half, and Nick Martinez can opt out of his deal after any of the next three years. MacKenzie Gore is the only rotation building block who’s certain to be around two seasons from now, and the Friars can build a long-term starting staff around the young southpaw and Musgrove.

Musgrove’s contract comes with a matching $20MM luxury tax number, which will take effect beginning next season. The Friars exceeded the CBT threshold for the first time in franchise history last year, and they could well do so again in 2022. According to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, San Diego’s 2023 payroll now sits around $130MM before accounting for arbitration salaries. The Padres luxury tax number is estimated north of $162MM, while next season’s base tax threshold checks in at $233MM.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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Latest On Juan Soto’s Trade Market

By Steve Adams | August 1, 2022 at 9:53am CDT

Juan Soto’s presence on the trade market has, in many ways, held up activity in other areas. Teams like the Cardinals and Padres, generally viewed as two of Soto’s top suitors, are also involved in the market for starting pitching. But, both are surely wary of dealing prospects to acquire a starter (e.g. Oakland’s Frankie Montas) if those same players might eventually be used to pry Soto loose from Washington.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan takes a lengthy look at the logjam Soto has created, writing within that the Yankees are a “long shot at best” to make a play for Soto before the deadline and suggesting that the Rangers, for now, are not a prominent bidder. That meshes with recent reporting from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, who wrote last night that there was “no traction” between the Yankees and Nationals regarding Soto, even though the Yankees reached out as recently as yesterday evening. Heyman adds that the Nationals aren’t as high on top prospect Anthony Volpe as the Yankees and many other clubs are, which is a complicating factor in talks.

The Padres and Cardinals are the most oft-suggested fits for Soto, and with good reason, as both are win-now clubs with deep farm systems who could offer the blend of top prospects and controllable big leaguers the Nationals seek. Passan suggests that the Dodgers are “lurking,” however, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic similarly wrote this morning that the Dodgers have maintained talks with the Nats and should not be ruled out as a potential landing spot. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale takes things a step further, tweeting that it’s actually the Dodgers — not the Cardinals or Padres — who have been making the most aggressive offers for Soto recently.

The Mariners, another regularly speculated fit for Soto, don’t appear likely to land him at this point. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto tells The Athletic’s Jim Bowden that while he checked in on Soto, he came away with the impression that there was not a realistic path to acquiring him (Twitter link). Presumably, that came prior to Seattle’s Friday acquisition of Luis Castillo — which cost the Mariners their top two prospects.

The Mets, too, have been speculatively listed as trade partners for the Nats. That’s due largely to the team’s huge payroll and aggressive past year under new owner Steve Cohen. However, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Mets believed “relatively quickly in the process” that there’d be such a large market for Soto that Washington wouldn’t have to consider trading him to a division rival. That certainly looks to be the case, although if the Nats do covet the Mets’ best prospects, there’s at least a slim chance of something coming together; both Sherman and SNY’s Andy Martino report that the Mets would only move their very best prospects if it were to acquire Soto or (an even longer shot) Shohei Ohtani. Both reports suggest catcher Francisco Alvarez is off limits unless it’s for one of Soto or Ohtani. Sherman adds third baseman Brett Baty to that list, and Martino suggests third baseman Mark Vientos is viewed similarly.

Regardless of whether Soto specifically changes hands, the market will erupt sometime between now and tomorrow’s 6pm ET deadline. The ticking clock is going to eventually drive teams into activity, and given the lack of movement thus far, we could be in for one of the most active and chaotic 24- to 30-hour spans of deadline dealing we’ve ever seen.

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Los Angeles Dodgers New York Mets New York Yankees Newsstand San Diego Padres Seattle Mariners St. Louis Cardinals Texas Rangers Washington Nationals Anthony Volpe Brett Baty Francisco Alvarez Juan Soto Mark Vientos Steve Cohen

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Brewers, Padres, Rays Interested In Joey Gallo

By Mark Polishuk | July 31, 2022 at 10:57am CDT

10:57AM: The Rays may not be too deep in the Gallo hunt, as Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News hears that the “Yankees wanted too much back” in return.

7:56AM: Joey Gallo’s time in the Bronx is widely expected to be up by Tuesday’s trade deadline, and the Yankees have been exploring trade possibilities for the struggling outfielder.  The Brewers, Padres, and Rays are among the clubs who have shown interest in the former All-Star, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes.

San Diego discussed a Gallo deal during Spring Training, and has been linked to the slugger’s market multiple times in the past, dating back to Gallo’s time with the Rangers.  The Rays and Brewers also had interest in Gallo at last year’s deadline, and seem to be again revisiting a trade 12 months later.

Of course, quite a lot has happened to Gallo’s trade value in the past year, none of it good.  After posting only a .707 OPS in 228 plate appearances as a Yankees in 2021, Gallo’s slump has only deepened this season.  Gallo has hit only .159/.282/.339 with 12 homers over 273 PA, with a wRC+ of 81 (the league average is 100) and strikeout and whiff rates that rank near the bottom of the league.

On the flip side, Gallo is still posting outstanding hard-contact numbers and his 14.7% walk rate is one of the best of any player in baseball.  A .217 BABIP only deepens the frustration, yet Gallo is so rarely making contact in the first place that his scuffles can’t be chalked up to just bad batted-ball luck.  This lack of production in the pinstripes is “something I’m gonna have to really live with for the rest of my life,” Gallo told The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler earlier this week.  “It’s going to be tough.  I didn’t play well, I didn’t live up to expectations.  And that’s a tough pill to swallow.”

The Yankees’ acquisition of Andrew Benintendi has all but confirmed that Gallo will be dealt, though what New York can expect back in return is an open question.  The 28-year-old outfielder is a free agent after the season and is owed roughly $3.4MM for the remainder of the year, making it quite possible that the Yankees will have to eat most or all of that money unless another unwanted contract is swapped in return.  While interested teams surely view Gallo as a change-of-scenery candidate, the Yankees don’t have much leverage in trying to market him as such, since it is so widely known that the club wishes to part ways with the outfielder.

In Tampa Bay’s case, the Yankees are surely wary of the idea of Gallo reviving himself on an AL East rival, and it is fair to wonder if New York would want more in order to move Gallo within the division.  The Rays may have the more glaring need for outfield help given that Manuel Margot, Harold Ramirez, and Kevin Kiermaier are all injured, with Kiermaier being out for the season in the wake of hip surgery.

However, the Rays already made a left-handed hitting outfield upgrade yesterday, landing David Peralta in a trade with the Diamondbacks.  It is possible this move could take the Rays out of the Gallo market, though the club is still looking for more outfield depth, as Nightengale also reports that Tampa is interested in former Ray and current Red Tommy Pham.

Christian Yelich, Andrew McCutchen, Hunter Renfroe, and Tyrone Taylor have comprised Milwaukee’s outfield mix for much of the season, with McCutchen also getting the majority of DH time.  Yelich is the only left-handed bat of the quartet, and Gallo could become a platoon partner with Taylor in center field.  2019 was the only season Gallo played a sizeable amount of center field, but he acquitted himself quite well defensively up the middle, even if right field is his ideal position — Gallo has won the last two American League right field Gold Gloves.

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MacKenzie Gore Tentatively Slated For September Return

By Mark Polishuk | July 31, 2022 at 8:44am CDT

Padres left-hander MacKenzie Gore was placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday due to inflammation in his throwing elbow, and as a result he “won’t throw…for a couple of weeks,” manager Bob Melvin told Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune and other reporters.  “Structurally, everything looked pretty good in there compared to the past.  Low-grade strain, and I think we caught a break as far as that goes.”

However, it is also possible we’ve seen the last of Gore in 2022, as Acee hears from two sources that the Padres could shut Gore down entirely, rather than risk more serious injury by bringing him back too early.  Melvin acknowledged the uncertainty of Gore’s status, saying “I don’t know what the reality is as far as him pitching….If everything went smoothly, there’s a chance he could show up at some point in time in September.”

Though Gore has been considered one of baseball’s best pitching prospects basically ever since the Padres drafted him third overall in 2017, questions began to surface when Gore ran into some major mechanics issues in 2020, necessitating a big overhaul and a trip back down the minor league ladder in 2021.  He got back on track enough to make his MLB debut this season, with Gore posting a 4.50 ERA and 23.3% strikeout rate over 70 innings, starting 13 of 16 games.

The Statcast numbers weren’t too favorable to Gore’s work, as his walk and hard-contact rates were among the league’s worst.  Much of that damage came over his last seven outings — Gore has an 11.05 ERA in his last 22 innings, as opposed to a sterling 1.50 mark in his first 48 frames of work.  Due to both his recent struggles and as a way of conserving his innings, Gore had been working out of the bullpen for his last two appearances, without much success.

With this in mind, it wasn’t clear how big of a role Gore would have for the Padres down the stretch, though losing part of their pitching depth entirely to the IL obviously isn’t an ideal situation.  San Diego can only hope that Gore recovers well and is able to make it back and put himself in the conversation for the postseason roster.

On paper, San Diego has more depth than most teams, as the Padres were operating with a six-man rotation for a good chunk of the season, and Nick Martinez could possibly be stretched back out as a starter.  But, with Gore a question mark, it is also easy to see why the Padres have been linked to starting pitching in deadline rumors, with San Diego reportedly checking in on such names as Frankie Montas, Shohei Ohtani, and (before he was traded to the Mariners) Luis Castillo.

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Juan Soto Rumors: Saturday

By Mark Polishuk | July 30, 2022 at 9:27pm CDT

Trade winds are swirling around Juan Soto, as it still isn’t clear if the Nationals will deal the superstar outfielder prior to Tuesday’s 5pm CT trade deadline.  The market continues to change on an hourly basis based on other deals, and certainly based on countless private discussions happening between front office executives around baseball, and yet Soto (MLBTR’s top trade candidate of deadline season) looms over everything.  Certainly, some clubs will want to explore all possibility of acquiring Soto, yet waiting too long could leave that team empty-handed for other trade options if Soto goes elsewhere.

The Padres are widely seen as one of the top contenders to land Soto, and are apparently open to surrendering the type of huge prospect package it will take to get Washington’s attention.  As per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, the Padres are “willing to discuss” such names as C.J. Abrams, Robert Hassell III, and Adrian Morejon with the Nationals.  All three are or have been staples of top-100 prospect lists for the last few years, though Morejon has “graduated” from most prospect lists due to his MLB experience, and MLB Pipeline also removed Abrams from their list due to his 43 big league games played earlier this season.

Since the Nationals are known to be targeting younger, controllable players either already in the majors or on the cusp of their big league debuts, the Padres’ trio would seem to check those boxes.  That said, it is quite likely that the Nats would want even more from the top tier of San Diego’s farm system (or from the active roster) in order to part with Soto, and the Padres could possibly have to up their offer in order to outbid other suitors.

For instance, the Cardinals also have a stockpile of young talent, and have also been mentioned as one of the favorites to land Soto.  Dylan Carlson is a name on Washington’s radar, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Nats “are fond of” the outfielder.

Carlson is only 23 and has already made a mark in the Show, delivering above-average production at the plate and strong defense (as both a center fielder and right fielder).  The Nationals could be eyeing Carlson as their next outfield cornerstone, as the team would already be fairly certain that he could contribute right away, whereas players like Abrams, Hassell, or Morejon are still unproven at the MLB level.

On paper, the Cardinals would seemingly have the depth to move Carlson as part of a Soto deal, yet that would leave the Cards without a reliable center fielder.  Harrison Bader is still on the 10-day injured list due to plantar fasciitis, and a setback will extend his stint for at least another few weeks, manager Oliver Marmol told Goold and other reporters.  Bader won’t even be out of a protective right boot for another week or two, so while Carlson has capably filled in up the middle, St. Louis could also have to pivot to landing a center fielder in another deal if Carlson was moved.  A makeshift combo of Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Edman in center, for instance, wouldn’t be an ideal option for a would-be contender.

As mentioned, other trades can drastically change the situation for multiple teams, and it appears as though two other potential Soto suitors are no longer involved.  The Rays would’ve been something of an eyebrow-raising team to land Soto, yet the Nationals’ demands were “beyond their tolerance,” Joel Sherman of The New York Post writes.  As such, the Rays eschewed the blockbuster route and instead landed David Peralta from the Diamondbacks earlier today.  Yesterday’s acquisition of Luis Castillo would also seemingly take the Mariners out of the running for Soto, as Seattle dealt away a sizeable chunk of its prospect capital to obtain Castillo from the Reds.

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Latest On Juan Soto’s Trade Market

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2022 at 7:43pm CDT

With four days to go until Tuesday evening’s trade deadline, the floodgates of activity have yet to really open. There’s nevertheless been plenty of chatter about the game’s top trade candidate, Juan Soto. The Nationals superstar will continue to be the talk of the summer market until the club either pulls the trigger on a deal or the deadline passes.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last night that the Cardinals, Padres, Dodgers and Rangers are among the teams generally viewed as those best positioned to pull off the blockbuster. That wasn’t a comprehensive list of clubs with interest, although Jim Bowden of the Athletic tweets this evening that only four clubs remain in the market. Bowden adds that the Padres and Cardinals are among that group of four, but the identities of the other two teams remain unknown. To be clear, it’s not a certainty that no one besides St. Louis, San Diego, Los Angeles and Texas is still in the mix.

Previous reports have tied the Mariners, Giants, Mets and Yankees to Soto, but the general belief is the Nats aren’t interested in dealing him within the NL East. Meanwhile, Heyman wrote last night the Nats “seem focused” on teams other than the Yankees. That’s not to say the Yankees are out, as Heyman unsurprisingly notes they’re still interested in Soto after acquiring Andrew Benintendi from the Royals.

The Cardinals, Padres and Dodgers are obvious entrants into the Soto bidding. They’re each 2022 contenders with a robust collection of young major league and/or farm talent, and all three have proven bold enough to trade for star players in recent years. The Rangers are perhaps a more surprising entrant into the market since they’re not in the playoff mix this year, but Texas has long maintained they expect to compete in earnest by next season. With Soto controllable for an additional two seasons, the Rangers could enter the fray with an eye towards adding another star to the 2023-24 rosters after big free agent pickups of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote yesterday that Texas has indeed been in contact with the Washington front office and continues to monitor the market. Whether they’ll be willing to meet the Nationals’ understandably astronomical asking price — and top the offers of clubs that are eyeing Soto as a target to improve their 2022 odds as well — remains to be seen. Grant suggests the Rangers may prefer to focus their resources, both financial and in terms of prospect capital, on their efforts to add talent to the starting rotation. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic noted last night in an appearance on Fox Sports that the general expectation is that Texas will be outbid by a more motivated club (Twitter link).

There’ll be more clarity on the Soto negotiations over the next few days. One thing that does not appear to be under consideration: the sides reopening extension talks before the trade deadline. Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post hears the Nats aren’t planning to make another extension offer (Twitter link). General manager Mike Rizzo has confirmed that Washington made a 15-year, $440MM proposal that Soto rejected a few weeks ago. That apparently marked the final extent to which the Nationals were willing to go, at least this summer. That’s not to say the Nats have to force a trade imminently, since his remaining arbitration eligibility would allow them to revisit extension and/or trade talks next offseason if he’s not dealt before Tuesday.

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Padres, Joe Musgrove Nearing Extension Agreement

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2022 at 7:20pm CDT

7:20pm: Heyman reports (on Twitter) that San Diego and Musgrove are close to an agreement on a five-year deal that’d guarantee roughly $100MM.

7:14pm: Extension discussions between the Padres and Joe Musgrove are “gaining momentum,” reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic (Twitter link). The sides have still yet to come to an agreement, but Lin indicates there’s mutual optimism a deal could be hammered out by next week.

The generally optimistic tenor has been prevalent for the past couple weeks. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported over the All-Star Break there was a belief on both sides a deal could get done before the start of the season’s unofficial second half. That obviously didn’t come to pass, but that evidently hasn’t deterred or meaningfully set back talks.

Terms currently under discussion are unclear, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Friars made an offer around the Break that resembled the free agent deals given to Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray. Gausman received a five-year, $110MM deal from the Blue Jays. Ray signed with the Mariners for five years and $115MM in a deal that also included an opt-out opportunity following the 2024 season.

Aside from the record-setting three-year deal for Max Scherzer, the Gausman and Ray contracts represented the top commitments to free agent starters last offseason. That makes for a reasonable comparison point for the Padres, but Musgrove and his representatives at Full Circle Sports Management could reasonably seek to top those markers. The San Diego righty carries a career-low 2.63 ERA through 109 1/3 innings this season, a bit below the respective 2.81 and 2.84 marks posted by Gausman and Ray last year. Both Gausman and Ray missed bats at a better clip than Musgrove has, but the latter has a slightly better walk rate than the 2021 free agents.

Musgrove’s platform season is shaping up to be similar to those of Gausman and Ray, and Musgrove may have a slightly better long-term track record. Ray had an awful year during the shortened 2020 campaign in which he posted a 6.62 ERA. He’d shown top-of-the-rotation flashes earlier in his career, but his control and home run rates fluctuated a fair amount. Gausman had a very strong shortened season, but he’d struggled during the previous full campaign. Musgrove has a sub-4.00 ERA in each of his past three years, with a cumulative 3.08 figure through 57 starts since the beginning of 2020.

A new contract would begin with Musgrove’s age-30 season, giving him a strong case for a six-year deal at an annual rate that’d push him above the $110MM – 115MM range for a total guarantee. At the same time, it’d be plenty understandable if Musgrove were a bit less concerned about maximizing his earning potential to remain with the Padres. He’s a San Diego-area native who has been open about his desire to remain with the organization. It’s uncommon for players of his magnitude to even discuss an in-season extension when they’re mere months away from the open market.

The appeal for the Padres in trying to keep Musgrove around is fairly evident. He’s one of the sport’s best pitchers, and the Friars could lose Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger to free agency this winter. Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are only under contract for two more seasons, and Nick Martinez can opt out of his deal after any of the next three years. MacKenzie Gore is the only rotation building block who’s certain to be around two seasons from now, and the Friars can build a long-term starting staff around the young southpaw and Musgrove if they can finalize an extension.

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Padres Interested In Shohei Ohtani

By Mark Polishuk | July 28, 2022 at 3:18pm CDT

The Angels reportedly don’t have any interest in trading Shohei Ohtani, but that hasn’t stopped the team from at least listening to offers out of due diligence, Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post write.  The Padres are one of those teams who have called about Ohtani, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, who adds that this is the type of aggressive move that has become typical of San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller.  There doesn’t seem to be any indication that the Padres have caught the Halos’ attention, except in the broader sense that the Padres have the depth of premium young talent that the Angels would undoubtedly want if they actually did considering sending Ohtani elsewhere.

Frankie Montas and Luis Castillo have also been linked to the Padres in trade rumors, and as Rosenthal notes, it is noteworthy in itself that San Diego is looking at pitchers despite having plenty of rotation depth on paper.  However, MacKenzie Gore was recently placed on the injured list, Sean Manaea has struggled as of late, and the Padres could be trying to land a pitcher controlled through at least 2023 considering that Manaea, Joe Musgrove, Mike Clevinger, and Nick Martinez could all potentially enter the free agent market this winter.  Furthermore, someone like Blake Snell could be dealt to try and stay under the luxury tax threshold, as avoiding another tax payment is another consideration for Preller to manage as the deadline approaches.

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