Giants Rumors

Top Five Trade Candidates: NL West

By Ty Bradley | September 29, 2018 at 5:19pm CDT

With the season nearing its end, and the teams who fell short of playoff contention well into their offseason preparations, it’s a good time to scan around the league and take a look at the top five trade candidates in each division.

We’ll start in the NL West, which features two of the most intriguing targets in baseball:

Nolan Arenado, Rockies: Arenado, 27, will enter his final year of arbitration in 2019 as one of the most decorated performers in club history. He was the MVP frontrunner in the season’s first half, smashing out of the gate to a .312/.395/.586 line in the lead-up to his fourth consecutive all-star appearance. Though he slumped to a near league-average line after the break, and his usual vacuum-like defense wasn’t always on display, Arenado is arguably the league’s most consistent performer over the last four seasons, where his 20.5 fWAR ranks third in the National League, and his 629 games played is tied for fifth among all performers. Colorado, loath for years to deal from their lot of established contributors and minor league riches, may have to acquiesce here: the club has already shelled out massive deals to 30-somethings Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, and Wade Davis, and has scores of dead money buried in aging relievers Mike Dunn, Jake McGee, and Bryan Shaw. Fitting Arenado into the books would leave precious little space with which to maneuver; a monster haul, however, could set them right back on a division-pacing track.
Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks: Goldschmidt, 31, has rebounded from an awful start to the season to yet again place himself among the league’s best: his 145 wRC+ almost exactly mirrors his career average, and his 5.1 fWAR is the fourth consecutive season in which he’s eclipsed the 5.0 mark. The Diamondbacks, though, are a in a precarious position – a mostly barren farm seems to preclude any major upgrades, and the club boasted little in the way of unexpected production from under-the-radar performers this year. Plus, there’s the departing free agents – a dominant Patrick Corbin, who figures to parlay his bat-missing ways into a huge contract this offseason, and A.J. Pollock, whose steady performance when healthy will surely not go unnoticed. The mid-market club is still saddled, too, by Zack Greinke’s behemoth deal, and doesn’t figure to fit both Goldschmidt – who’ll hit free agency after the club picks up his $14.5MM option for ’19 – and the veteran hurler on the books without severely compromising the team’s flexibility moving forward. A wide-ranging infusion of talent seems just what Arizona needs this offseason.
Joc Pederson, Dodgers: Pederson, 26, has quietly put together another stellar season, slicing his strikeout rate for the fourth consecutive year (to a career-low 19%) and delivering 2.7 fWAR in just 436 PAs. But he remains unplayable against lefties (60 career wRC+), and his center-field defense, over the last two seasons, has earned mostly subpar reviews. Still, he’s a fierce power threat against right-handers, offers quality defense in a corner, and has shown an aptitude for plate-discipline adjustments not often seen in exploitable power bats. With a healthy Corey Seager set to return in ’19, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger, the platoon-happy Dodgers figure to have more than enough left-side thump to go around: perhaps moving the second-time arbitration-eligible Pederson for bullpen help and/or rotation depth will be a priority come November.
Brandon Belt, Giants: No player in the division seems in more desperate need of a scenery change than Belt, who is routinely harangued by his fanbase for a supposed lack of power, propensity for the fluke injury, and a perceived failure in the ’clutch.’ Belt, 30, has done little but produce when on the field, though, pairing elite first-base defense (his 13 DRS – in just 112 games – was tied for the league lead among 1B this season) with sky-high walk rates and steady gap power (limited, perhaps, by the cavernous right-field at AT&T Park) to cement himself as above-average regular (12.2 fWAR in limited time since the beginning of ’15 ) at the position. His contract – he’s owed $48MM through the end of the 2021 season – and recent injury history (a meniscus issue that precipitated a second-half decline) may give some teams pause, but the retooling Giants should net a significant return if they’re willing to eat a little cash.
Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks: Ray, 27 on Monday, seems the perfect target for a team that leans heavily on the bullpen: he rarely makes its past the 6th inning, preferring instead to max out with the heater (his 94.1 MPH average fastball velocity ranks third among left-handers since the start of the 2016 season) and a wipeout breaking ball mix that’s allowed him to post the league’s second highest strikeout total (11.70) over the same frame. With two years of arbitration eligibility left, the man with the 85 xFIP- over the last three seasons (good for 22nd in baseball) is sure to bring back an attractive return from a data hungry team with bat-missing preferences.

NL Notes: Kang, Kennedy, Giants, Wainwright

By Steve Adams | September 29, 2018 at 8:57am CDT

The Pirates will be faced with a decision on Jung Ho Kang’s 2019 option this offseason, but GM Neal Huntington tells Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic that Kang’s performance in this weekend series won’t have an impact on the outcome (subscription required). “Truth be told, there’s not going to be a whole lot of value in the evaluation process of a one-game or a one-plus-game look,” said Huntington. Biertempfel notes, though, that the late promotion could earn a bit of good will with Kang’s camp in the event that the team elects to buy out his $5.5MM option and try to bring him back into the fold for a few million less than that. There’s been no indication one way or another as to how the Pirates plan on proceeding, though the very fact that he was brought up to the Majors at all indicates that they’re not totally closed off to the possibility of continuing the relationship in spite of Kang’s legal troubles over the past few seasons.

Here’s more from the National League…

Padres right-hander Brett Kennedy underwent knee surgery that will sideline him for the first six weeks of the offseason, tweets AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. However, Kennedy is still expected to be able to have a largely normal offseason program, and the operation isn’t expected to impact his availability for the 2019 campaign. Kennedy, 24, didn’t impress in six starts with the Friars this season, working to a 6.75 ERA in 26 2/3 innings. However, the 2015 11th-rounder fired off 89 1/3 innings of 2.72 ERA ball with 8.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 52.6 percent ground-ball rate in an extremely hitter-friendly setting with the Padres’ El Paso affiliate in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. He posted solid numbers at Double-A in 2017 and at Class-A Advanced in 2016, and with multiple minor league options remaining beyond 2018, he’ll have ample opportunity to cement himself as part of the San Diego pitching staff in come capacity over the next few seasons.
The Giants’ search for a new general manager and/or president of baseball operations isn’t expected to be a quick one, tweets Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. The process could take several weeks as Giants leadership interviews a wide range of candidates with varying backgrounds. Notably, Schulman adds that the Giants aren’t set on hiring any one specific type of executive (e.g. analytically inclined, traditional scouting background, etc.) and seem to be embarking on this process with an open-minded approach.
With the Cardinals on the brink of elimination, Derrick Gould of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes the uncertain future of Adam Wainwright, who may have made his final start yesterday for the only MLB team he’s ever known. Wainwright’s a free agent at season’s end, and while he spent most of the season sidelined by elbow soreness, he’s rebounded in September to pitch admirably for St. Louis. His 4.84 ERA across his past four starts may not look pretty, but his 3.20 FIP and stunning 6.25 K/BB ratio points to a much more effective pitcher than the version of Wainwright the world had seen across the rest of the past three seasons. Teammate Yadier Molina, for what it’s worth, doesn’t seem to think it’s the last time the two will be batterymates, saying he’s “confident” about that. “It may have been,” Wainwright himself said. “It doesn’t feel like it is. For whatever reason. I haven’t had those emotions. The way I’m feeling now, if that is my last start here it would be kind of hard to walk away knowing the way I’m feeling right now.”

Past, Present & Future: National League Closer Turnover

By Jason Martinez | September 28, 2018 at 5:40pm CDT

While a new breed of pitcher, one who can rack up holds, strikeouts and throw multiple innings, is beginning to emerge as an integral role on a baseball roster, becoming the “closer” is still the ultimate goal for a Major League relief pitcher. The closer gets the entrance music. The closer gets the congratulatory hug from the catcher after the third out, followed by handshakes from every teammate. Closers get paid! Most importantly, being the closer usually means that your manager trusts you above all other pitchers in that bullpen.

Give up a lead in the seventh or eighth inning and your team still has a chance to pick you up. The later in the game a players fails, the better chance that mistake will stand out to anyone watching. It will be in the headlines. Fantasy Baseball owners will want to know who is “next in line.” And for a team that has fought tooth and nail to get to the ninth inning with a lead, it can be debilitating if the last pitcher standing can’t close things out. Managers don’t have much patience for blown saves, either. There is a lot of pressure and a lot of turnover, which is why most teams won’t have the same closer in September as they did on Opening Day.

Here’s a look back at each National League team’s closer situation on Opening Day versus where they are now and where they will be as they head into the offseason. (We ran through the American League earlier this week.)

[Related: MLB closer depth chart at Roster Resource]

Arizona Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Brad Boxberger
September 2018: Committee — Yoshihisa Hirano, Archie Bradley, Boxberger

Future Outlook: The Diamondbacks opted to keep their best reliever, Bradley, in a setup role while plugging offseason acquisition Boxberger into the closer’s role. For the majority of the season, things went according to plan. That duo, along with Hirano and lefties Andrew Chafin and T.J. McFarland, were a strength on a team that led the NL West on September 1. But as the bullpen has fallen apart over the past few weeks, the team has quickly descended in the standings and fallen out of the playoff hunt.

As a result, the D-backs will head into the offseason with their closer situation somewhat up in the air. Overall, Boxberger, Bradley and Hirano have each been mostly effective and can still be counted on as valuable late-inning relievers. The D-backs will need to decide if they want add a better ninth inning option, though with numerous holes to fill as key players like A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin depart via free agency, the team could decide it has bigger needs.

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Atlanta Braves | Braves Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Arodys Vizcaino
September 2018: Arodys Vizcaino

Future Outlook: Vizcaino was entrenched as the Braves’ closer to start the season, and he’s seemingly back in as the Braves prepare for their first playoff series since 2013. A.J. Minter proved to be a capable fill-in during both of Vizcaino’s disabled list stints. For a time, he even appeared to be more of a co-closer with a healthy Vizcaino on the roster, presenting a very formidable righty-lefty combination in the late innings.

With a solid group of relievers, including Minter, Jesse Biddle, Shane Carle and Dan Winkler, all under contract for next season and the chance that one or two of their enticing young prospects could help out of the ’pen, the Braves appear to be in good shape in 2019. They could be tempted, however, to bring back free agent Craig Kimbrel, who had 186 saves, four All-Star appearances and won the NL Rookie of the Year award during a five-year stint with the team from 2010-2014.

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Chicago Cubs | Cubs Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Brandon Morrow
September 2018: Committee — Jesse Chavez, Jorge De La Rosa, Steve Cishek, etc.

Future Outlook: The offseason signing of Morrow came with significant risk due to his long history of injuries and a heavy postseason workload (14 appearances) with the Dodgers in 2017. And while the Cubs did their best not to overuse him—he made back-to-back appearances just six times and pitched on three consecutive days only once—his season ended in mid-July due to a bone bruise in his elbow and biceps inflammation.

Pedro Strop was up to the task as the fill-in closer—he had a 1.77 ERA and 11 saves in 13 chances after Morrow went on the disabled list—but a strained hamstring ended his regular season on September 13. He could return for the playoffs. In the meantime, the Cubs have been mixing and matching in the late innings, at times relying on journeymen like Chavez and De La Rosa as they try to hold off the Brewers in the NL Central race.

Morrow and Strop will be back in the picture in 2018—Strop’s $6.25MM club option will almost certainly be exercised—as will setup men Carl Edwards Jr. and Cishek. Finding a left-hander who can close, if necessary, might be on the team’s agenda. Zach Britton could be a target if that’s the case.

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Cincinnati Reds | Reds Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Raisel Iglesias
September 2018: Raisel Iglesias

Future Outlook: Iglesias has had three consecutive good seasons out of the bullpen with 63 saves in 71 opportunities. The Reds, however, have been in last place with less than 70 wins in each of those years, making Iglesias’ contributions less significant.

If the Reds are confident that they can be a much better team in 2019, it makes perfect sense to hold on to the 28-year-old right-hander—he’s under team control through 2021—and make him available via trade only if they fall out of contention during the season. Since he’s been able to stay healthy as a relief pitcher—not to mention that there is no clear “next in line” closer in the organization—they’re be better off leaving things as they are rather than experimenting with a move back to the rotation. The ninth inning should belong to Iglesias again come Opening Day 2019.

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Colorado Rockies | Rockies Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Wade Davis
September 2018: Wade Davis

Future Outlook: Despite a few rough patches along the way, the 33-year-old Davis has 42 saves for the first-place Rockies and has been on a roll when it counts the most. In his last 17 appearances, he’s 10-for-10 in save chances with 23 strikeouts in 17 innings and only one earned run allowed.

Davis is still guaranteed $36MM over the next two seasons—he’ll also get another $14MM in 2021 if he finishes 30 games in 2020—so his mid-season struggles and continued decrease in fastball velocity (95.9 MPH in ’15; 94.9 MPH in ’16, 94.3 MPH in ’17; 93.8 MPH in ’18) are a concern. He has done enough to hold on to the closing job for 2019, but it would be a good idea to have a backup plan in place. Adam Ottavino, the team’s most valuable reliever with a 2.47 ERA, six saves and 33 holds, will be a free agent after the season. Re-signing him or replacing him with a top free agent will be difficult considering that Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw, both disappointments thus far, signed $27MM contracts last offseason. They could rely heavily on Seunghwan Oh, who recently had his $2.5MM option vest for 2019 and has been very good since being acquired from Toronto in July.

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Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodgers Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Kenley Jansen
September 2018: Kenley Jansen

Future Outlook: Jansen allowed six earned runs with two blown saves and a loss in his first seven appearances of 2018. He missed 13 days in August due to an irregular heart beat that will likely require offseason surgery. Upon his return, he allowed seven earned runs with two losses and a blown save over four appearances. And yet, the 30-year-old right-hander has 37 saves and a sub-3.00 ERA for a Dodgers team that is fighting for a playoff spot as we head into the last weekend of the regular season.

Jansen’s occasional struggles on the mound and health concerns only magnified the team’s inability to replace Morrow, who was their primary setup man and bullpen workhorse last post-season. Setup relievers seem likely to be an area of focus this winter, and the Dodgers will be keeping their fingers crossed that Jansen comes back strong in what will be year three of a five-year, $80MM contract.

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Miami Marlins | Marlins Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Brad Ziegler
September 2018: Co-Closers — Drew Steckenrider and Adam Conley

Future Outlook: It’s not clear why the rebuilding Marlins stuck with the veteran Ziegler through a rocky two-month stint as the closer to begin the season. Even though he had just one blown save in 10 chances when he was removed from the role, he had an ERA near 8.00 and Kyle Barraclough, next in line, had a 1.48 ERA. If they had any reluctance to turn it over to Barraclough, he showed why that might’ve been the case by losing the job two months later.

After locking down all seven save chances while allowing just one hit over 12 scoreless innings in June, Barraclough fell apart in July. Over his next 13 appearances, he blew four saves and allowed 14 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings before the Marlins decided on a closer-by-committee approach in early August. Steckenrider and Conley lead the team with four and two saves, respectively, since Barraclough was removed from the closer’s role. Both pitchers have an ERA over 5.00 in the second half, however, so it’s very likely that the team will look to find a more reliable option during the offseason.

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Milwaukee Brewers | Brewers Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Corey Knebel
September 2018: Committee — Knebel, Jeremy Jeffress, Josh Hader

Future Outlook: Knebel suffered a hamstring injury during his third appearance of the season, forcing him to the disabled list for a month. By the time he returned, Hader and Jeffress had each established that they were more than capable of picking up the slack if Knebel could not return to his 2017 form. And this did prove to be the case. The 26-year-old Knebel, sharing the closer’s role with Hader and Jeffress, had a 5.08 ERA through August 31st. September has been a different story, however, as Knebel has allowed just four hits and three walks over 13 1/3 scoreless innings with 26 strikeouts. Regardless of how things go in the playoffs, the Brewers appear set with the same trio of late-inning relievers heading into 2019.

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New York Mets | Mets Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Jeurys Familia
September 2018: Committee — Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Anthony Swarzak

Future Outlook: The return of Familia, who missed time in 2017 due to a 15-game suspension and a three-and-a-half month-stint on the disabled list, was supposed to help propel the Mets back into playoff contention. While things have not gone swimmingly for the Mets, Familia’s comeback has actually gone quite well. He posted a 2.88 ERA with 17 saves for the Mets, was traded to Oakland in July and should be headed for a decent payday in free agency this offseason.

The Mets, coincidentally, will likely be in the market for a closer, although it’s not known whether they or Familia would be open to a reunion. Gsellman has held his own as the primary closer, saving eight of nine games since Familia’s departure, but probably isn’t the long-term answer. Lugo has been terrific out of the ’pen, although his best role could be as a multi-inning setup man for whoever the team’s next closer will be.

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Philadelphia Phillies | Phillies Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Hector Neris
September 2018: Committee – Neris, Seranthony Dominguez, Tommy Hunter, etc.

Future Outlook: Neris was 8-for-10 in save chances with three losses and an ERA over 5.00 in mid-May when manager Gabe Kapler declared that he would no longer have a set closer. It didn’t take long for rookie Seranthony Dominguez to emerge as the most significant part of the group, pitching 14 2/3 scoreless innings with only two hits allowed, no walks and 16 strikeouts to begin his MLB career. He would falter as the season progressed, though, leaving Kapler to rely more on veterans Hunter and Pat Neshek down the stretch.

Considering that Dominguez was a starting pitching prospect with no experience in the upper minors prior to the 2018 season, it wouldn’t be a stretch to think he can take a big leap forward and solidify the closer’s job for a full season. But with expectations for the Phillies likely to be in the high-to-extremely-high range, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Phillies pursue a more established free agent to close out games.

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Pittsburgh Pirates | Pirates Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Felipe Vazquez
September 2018: Felipe Vazquez

Future Outlook: Vazquez signed a $22MM contract extension in the offseason and changed his name in April. By the end of May, Vazquez had an ERA near 5.00 and four blown saves. There wasn’t the normal negative buzz that surrounds most closers after blowing a save or two, though. He had only allowed an earned run in four of 24 appearances and the Pirates were playing much better than expected. He was also dealing with forearm discomfort and, of course, was one of the most dominant relief pitchers in baseball in 2017. He earned that long leash. Over his last 44 appearances, the 27-year-old lefty has a 1.77 ERA and 26 saves in 27 chances. Yep– still one of the most dominant relievers in baseball.

With three games to go, Vazquez is two appearances shy of reaching at least 70 games for the third consecutive season. He pitched both ends of a double-header twice in 2018 and pitched three consecutive days on three occasions, including two days after experiencing the forearm pain. The acquisition of Keone Kela and the emergence of Kyle Crick and Richard Rodriguez as reliable setup men should help ease Vazquez’s workload in 2019.

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San Diego Padres | Padres Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Brad Hand
September 2018: Kirby Yates

Future Outlook: While Hand’s offseason contract extension removed any sense of urgency that the Padres had to trade him, it also made him a much more valuable trade chip. After saving 24 games and posting a 3.05 ERA with 13.2 K/9 in 41 appearances, Hand was traded to the Indians for catcher Francisco Mejia, one of the top prospects in baseball. Yates stepped into the closer’s role, although there was a decent chance that it would be a short stint with 12 days to go until the non-waiver trade deadline and several contending teams potentially interested in acquiring him. The 31-year-old stayed put, though, giving him an extended opportunity to prove himself as an MLB closer. He’s passed the test with flying colors, saving 10 games in 11 chances—he has 12 saves overall—while continuing to strike out more than 12 batters per nine innings.

The Padres, who currently have 95 losses, aren’t likely to build a legitimate playoff contender during the offseason. However, they’re far enough into their rebuild that they’ll want to go into 2019 with a team that can at least be .500. In that case, holding on to Yates would be smart, although general manager A.J. Preller will surely be willing to pull the trigger on a deal if a team meets his asking price.

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San Francisco Giants | Giants Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Hunter Strickland
September 2018: Will Smith

Future Outlook: With Mark Melancon on the disabled list to begin the season, the Giants turned to Strickland as their closer. For the most part, he did a fine job, but his days as a closer swiftly came to an end, at least for the near future, on June 18th. Strickland entered the game with a two-run lead over the Marlins, an ERA just over 2.00 and 13 saves in 16 chances. After allowing three earned runs in the eventual 5-4 loss, he punched a door in frustration and fractured his hand. Upon returning in mid-August, Smith had 10 saves and a strong grasp on the closer’s gig.

Smith will likely be the front-runner to keep the job in ’19 with Melancon also firmly in the mix given his experience and his sizable contract (four years, $62MM). He’s not quite back to his pre-injury form, but Melancon has a 3.08 ERA in 40 appearances.

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St. Louis Cardinals | Cardinals Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Committee — Dominic Leone, Tyler Lyons, Bud Norris
September 2018: Carlos Martinez

Future Outlook: The committee was supposed to be temporary while Greg Holland, who signed a one-year contract in late March, worked his way back into shape with a Minor League stint. Holland, though, was brought to the Majors before he was ready and never looked right with the Cardinals. He walked four in his St. Louis debut and never quite recovered. Norris, as he did in 2017 with the Angels, quickly separated himself from the other closer options and proved to be a steady force in the ninth inning with 28 saves and a sub-3.00 ERA through August. The 33-year-old ran out of gas, though, forcing the team to use a temporary committee in early September. Martinez, who returned from a disabled list stint to pitch out of the bullpen in late August, has emerged as the team’s primary closer as they fight for a Wild Card spot.

It’s highly unlikely that Martinez, the Cardinals’ Opening Day starter, will remain in the bullpen beyond this season. Barring any injury concerns, he’s just too good as a starting pitcher. Rookie Jordan Hicks, who has dazzled with his 100+ MPH sinking fastball, is a good bet to be the team’s closer at some point. It’s just not certain that the Cardinals will trust him enough at the beginning of the 2019 campaign, which could put them in the market for a stop-gap closer this offseason.

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Washington Nationals | Nationals Depth Chart

Opening Day 2018: Sean Doolittle
September 2018: Sean Doolittle

Future Outlook: Doolittle was the Nationals’ closer on Opening Day, an NL All-Star selection in July, and he’s the Nationals’ closer as we enter the last weekend of the regular season. You’d figure things went pretty well for the Nats in 2018. But you’d be wrong.

A stress reaction in Doolittle’s foot forced him out of the All-Star game and out of action for a majority of the second half. When he returned in September, the Nats were out of the playoff chase. Five different relievers, including Kelvin Herrera, picked up saves while Doolittle was out. Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Madson and Shawn Kelley were all traded, and Herrera suffered a season-ending foot injury in late August.

Doolittle will be back in 2019—his $6MM club option will surely be exercised—and should jump right back into the ninth-inning role unless the Nats make a bold acquisition for another closer. In all likelihood, they’ll bring in another veteran setup man to help out a group that includes Koda Glover and Justin Miller. Greg Holland is one possibility. He has been a pleasant surprise since signing with the team in early August (0.89 ERA in 23 appearances) .

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POTENTIAL FREE-AGENT CLOSER OPTIONS

Cody Allen
Brad Brach
Zach Britton
Sean Doolittle (if $6MM club option is declined)
Jeurys Familia

Kelvin Herrera
Greg Holland

Nate Jones (if $4.65MM club option is declined)
Joe Kelly
Craig Kimbrel
Ryan Madson
Andrew Miller

Bud Norris

Adam Ottavino

Fernando Rodney (if $4.25MM club option is declined)
Sergio Romo
Trevor Rosenthal

Joakim Soria (if $10MM mutual option is declined)

NL West Rumors: D-Backs, Pence, CarGo, Galvis

By Jeff Todd | September 28, 2018 at 11:08am CDT

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic breaks down the tough choices facing the Diamondbacks this winter. Taking another crack at contention would mean filling several needs. It’d also come with some clear risks. As Piecoro well explains: “For years, the Diamondbacks have had just enough talent to want to keep pushing forward, but not enough to seriously contend for a World Series. And, it seems, each time they’ve tried to load up, they’ve only set themselves back further from a possible championship.” It’s a really interesting initial look at the complicated situation, including some takes from rival executives from around the game.

Giants Notes: Front Office, Bochy, Holland

By Jeff Todd | September 26, 2018 at 11:24am CDT

The Giants’ recent front-office shakeup is designed to “bring a new approach to Giants baseball,” CEO Larry Baer explained in the wake of the firing of GM Bobby Evans. As Kerry Crowley of the Mercury News writes, longtime exec Brian Sabean will be in a key role in making a new hire, though the incoming baseball ops head will report directly to Baer. The CEO says he’s looking for a “next-gen” executive — a statement that could perhaps be interpreted in several ways but nevertheless offers an interesting hint as to the organization’s intentions.

Notably, the top hire likely won’t be the only one. Baer acknowledged that any new baseball ops leader may want to bring in some of his or her own people. And Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that there’s actually already an expectation of creating a two-tiered structure. The Giants, he says, are looking for both a VP of baseball ops and a general manager.
Giants skipper Bruce Bochy, meanwhile, says that the upper management changes don’t impact his preference to continue in his job, as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports. Bochy is only under contract through 2019, but he says that “lame duck” status won’t be an issue heading into his 13th season on the job. Clearly, he’s also not concerned that the club’s competitive outlook is at best uncertain. The fact that Bochy will remain in place adds an interesting dynamic to the front office situation, though the veteran skipper says he’s committed to meshing well with whoever steps in. Potential baseball ops hires may prefer to choose their own manager, though it’s also not hard to imagine that many will feel comfortable with the highly respected Bochy for at least one campaign.
Whoever ends up taking over the baseball operations department will face a number of challenges, along with questions on existing players. The pitching staff, in particular the bullpen, has some potential trade candidates. It also has one potential candidate to be re-signed in Derek Holland, who has turned in a bounceback year and is set to return to the open market. Through 168 2/3 innings, the southpaw carries a 3.63 ERA with a career-high 8.9 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. The 31-year-old says he’s interesting in continuing his career with San Francisco, as John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes, and Bochy adds his endorsement. At this point, though, it’s anyone’s guess whether that will be of interest to the new top decisionmakers.

Silver Linings: National League West

By George Miller and Jeff Todd | September 26, 2018 at 8:40am CDT

It’s time for another installation of our Silver Linings series, where we look at the positive takeaways that can be drawn from otherwise underwhelming seasons. In this edition, we’ll head out to the National League West. As the Dodgers and Rockies sprint towards a photo finish, here are the reasons for optimism for the three clubs that have been left behind:

[Previous “Silver Linings” Posts: AL Central, NL Central, NL East, AL East]

Diamondbacks: Bullpen Pieces

Following an unceremonious exit in the 2017 NLDS at the hands of the rival Dodgers, the Diamondbacks hoped 2018 would be the year they’d break through to win a division title. Indeed, a blistering start to the season saw Arizona jump out to a 21-8 record, and the Snakes appeared poised to dethrone the Dodgers as division champions. Unfortunately, the D-Backs allowed the rest of the division to catch up over a stretch in May during which the team lost 13 of 14 games. The team now sits at a mediocre 80-78 and has lost 8 of its last 10 games, forcing an early exit from the heated race for the NL West crown.

Despite the disappointment, there’s obviously talent on hand. But that doesn’t mean it’s easy to identify silver linings that portend significant hope for the future. True, the rotation was generally a bright spot, but perhaps not in a manner that’s particularly exciting for the future. Zack Greinke and breakout star Patrick Corbin have anchored the staff, but the former is a highly-paid veteran who’ll be entering his age-35 season and the latter is destined for free agency. Surprising production from the resurgent Clay Buchholz helped quite a bit, but he finished with injury and is also heading back to the open market. The team received contributions from Robbie Ray and Zack Godley, though neither was as effective as might have been hoped.

If there’s something to carry out of the 2018 campaign, though, perhaps it’s to be found on the other side of the pitching staff. The Diamondbacks’ bullpen was the source of a number of bright spots for the club in 2018. After several lackluster seasons spent pitching in Baltimore, left-hander T.J. McFarland has enjoyed a career year in Arizona, posting a 2.00 ERA in 72 innings. Yoshihisa Hirano, who signed as a free agent after 11 seasons in Japan, proved to be a reliable option out of the bullpen, and Archie Bradley pitched well in 70 games, though not at the same level as he established in 2017. In 48 2/3 innings, Andrew Chafin has yet to concede a home run while striking out more than a batter per inning. And Silvino Bracho arguably pitched well enough in his 28 appearances that he’s deserving of a steady MLB job going forward.

That relief corps could represent an affordable, reliable unit that allows the organization to invest its resources to address other areas. Make no mistake, there are needs. Center fielder A.J. Pollock will join Corbin in heading onto the open market. The payroll pressures from Greinke’s contracts will not abate. While perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt will return, 2019 is the last year of his current contract. The Diamondbacks’ window for contention appears to be closing quickly, and 2018 looks like a missed opportunity.

Giants: Rotation Finds

Coming off a last-place finish in 2017, the Giants set their sights on a bounce-back campaign in 2018. The team acquired a pair of pricey veterans, Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria, in hopes that the experienced newcomers would ignite the team. However, the Giants’ offense has fallen flat, and an unlucky streak of injuries has left the club mired in mediocrity. Having scored the second-fewest runs in the National League, the Giants’ offense has been a disaster. The team has posted an overall slash line of .241/.302/.371. Longoria is clearly not his former self, and McCutchen was jettisoned in August after the team fell out of contention. Injuries to regulars Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, and others have sapped the Giants of their firepower.

Meanwhile, a veteran rotation has fallen apart. Highly paid rotation cogs Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija suffered significant injuries. Staff pillar Madison Bumgarner made it back to the mound and produced good results, but showed reduced velocity and peripherals. Derek Holland turned in a nice bounceback campaign, but he’s a free agent.

In this situation, it’s not hard to spot the brightest glimmer of hope. Rookie Dereck Rodriguez has been a revelation in the Giants’ starting rotation. Since debuting with the big league club in late May, Rodriguez has made 18 starts, posting an impressive 2.50 ERA. His presence in the rotation has mitigated the damage caused by the absence of Samardzija and Cueto, who have combined to make just 19 starts this season. Rodriguez has perhaps also made it easy to overlook rookie left-hander Andrew Suarez, who has also emerged as a serviceable rotation piece. Whether there’s more in the tank is open to debate, but Suarez still looks to be a nice asset after pitching to a 4.22 ERA across 28 starts.

If there’s a case to be made that the Giants can remain competitive while rebuilding, it begins with the idea that they’ll have multiple effective and affordable rotation pieces on hand for the coming seasons. And perhaps there’s reason at least to hope for better health and a return to form from some veteran players. It helps, too, that the organization received some strong performances from relievers who remain under control — Will Smith, Reyes Moronta, Tony Watson, Sam Dyson, and even a rejuvenated Mark Melancon — though some could also be trade fodder this winter. In truth, the club’s near-term course remains to be seen, in no small part because there’ll be a new regime at the controls.

Padres: Incremental Gains

While the Padres hardly sniffed the postseason in 2018, it was not a year without progress in San Diego. Though another losing season marks the 12th consecutive season the Friars will vacation in October, greener pastures appear to be on the horizon in San Diego.

Perhaps that’s scant consolation for fans who had hoped for a more dramatic leap in 2018. After all, the rebuild has been in the works for some time and it’s still unclear precisely which players will make up the anticipated core of the future. Still, it’s hard to ignore the sheer volume of talent — or its proximity to the MLB level.

Even with a number of players succeeding after making the leap to the big leagues in 2018, the biggest splashes may be yet to come. Boasting one of baseball’s premier minor-league systems, the Padres expect to receive an influx of talented players that will help to build the club into a postseason threat in coming seasons. With reinforcements waiting in the wings, the early returns look promising for the Padres.

There was no shortage of impressive rookies in San Diego this season. Pitchers Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer showed promise in their debut seasons, and look to have built foundations that will set the pair up for success in 2019 and beyond. Jose Castillo and Robert Stock are among the first-time big leaguers who have impressed in an intriguing bullpen unit that includes several other youngsters as well as hurlers who’ve thrived despite arriving as castaways (Craig Stammen, Kirby Yates, Matt Strahm). Before his season ended prematurely, Franchy Cordero, who features an intriguing combination of power and speed, injected excitement into the Padres offense, homering 7 times in 40 games. Outfielder Franmil Reyes has increasingly impressed at the plate after looking lost when he debuted in May.

Top prospect Luis Urias also received a call-up late in the season. Though his season was cut short due to injury, the 21-year-old infielder projects to hit for high average and play solid infield defense as he matures, a welcome addition to any club. The Padres also brought in the game’s top catching prospect, Francisco Mejia, in a deal that sent Brad Hand to Cleveland. Just 22 years of age, Mejia figures into the team’s future plans at a premium position, potentially functioning alongside Austin Hedges to form an impressive duo behind the dish (if the team can find a way to get Mejia’s bat in the lineup at other positions as well). Pitcher Dinelson Lamet, who flashed tantalizing potential as a rookie in 2017 but missed all of this season with a torn UCL, will offer a boon to the pitching staff in 2019.

Combine these major-league contributors with what may be the game’s deepest prospect pool, and the Padres believe they have a blueprint to contend in the near future. The farm is ripe with pitchers who could debut in the coming years, even if it’s not yet clear which will fully emerge. If there’s a truly exciting presence on the horizon, though, it’s shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., who is one of the top prospects in baseball. Though he missed time with a thumb injury, he cemented his status as the organization’s most exciting talent by posting a .286/.355/.507 slash and banging 16 long balls in 394 Double-A plate appearances.

As their farmhands graduate to the Majors, the Padres hope to build a young core that has the potential to turn this organization into an annual contender. For now, that’s still a vision rather than a reality; the club’s broad collection of interesting players has yet to coalesce. But the waves of talent are now coming ashore. Perhaps 2019 will be the year that the patience begins to pay off?

Giants Remove Bobby Evans From GM Role

By Steve Adams | September 24, 2018 at 7:50pm CDT

7:50pm: Baer said in a conference call tonight that the Giants will search for a new head of baseball operations, meaning Sabean will not be in charge of such decisions moving forward, either (Twitter link via Pavlovic). Baer also stated that the team expects Bochy to return as the manager in 2019 (Twitter link via Schulman).

6:50pm: The Giants announced the move and added that Evans will be “reassigned” to a new role with responsibilities that have yet to be determined. Giants CEO Larry Baer offered the following statement:

“I want to thank Bobby for his tireless work on behalf of the Giants. He played an important role in our team’s success throughout his tenure, which includes three World Series championships, four NL pennants and eight playoff appearances. We look forward to new leadership to continue our historic record of success.”

Sabean will not simply be reprising his role atop the team’s operations hierarchy, it seems, as the press release indicates that he’ll work with Baer to find a replacement for Evans.

“I take great pride in the longstanding continuity of our baseball department,” Sabean said in his own statement. “I want to express my thanks to Bobby for all he has given to the Giants over the past 25 years and for his countless contributions.”

6:15pm: Bobby Evans has been removed from his post as the Giants’ general manager, reports Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. It’s not clear if Evans will remain with the organization in another capacity or look for an opportunity in a new organization, though Schulman adds that he’s expected to be offered another role within the Giants. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area writes that the move is likely to be the first of many in a major front-office shakeup, though Schulman notes that executive vice president Brian Sabean and manager Bruce Bochy are likely to be retained.

Evans has spent more than two decades with the Giants and played an instrumental role in helping to construct the three rosters that won the 2010, 2012 and 2014 World Series during San Francisco’s “even-year” dynasty. At the time, Evans was the assistant general manager to then-GM Sabean, but in 2015 the organization promoted Sabean to executive vice president and bumped Evans up the chain of command another peg.

Things haven’t gone well since, as San Francisco has been burned by big-money free agent signings (Jeff Samardzija, Johnny Cueto, Mark Melancon) while struggling through a pair of losing seasons. The Giants won only 64 games last season but loaded up on veteran additions in the offseason with an eye toward contending in 2018. Trade acquisitions Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria didn’t help the offense in the manner that Evans & Co. had hoped, however. This year’s club did manage to hang around the periphery of contention longer than the 2017 iteration of the Giants — despite myriad injury issues, it should be noted — but ultimately plummeted out of the division race in catastrophic fashion by losing 11 consecutive games.

While the past couple seasons for the Giants have been miserable, Evans should have no trouble finding another opportunity with a different organization if he decides to move on from the Giants. He’s among the game’s most respected executives and would bring a wealth of experience to a new club. It’s worth noting that there is at least one other GM opening that’ll need to be filled, as the Mets are searching for a new head of baseball operations following Sandy Alderson’s departure from the team earlier this summer.

NL Notes: Giants, Fowler, Pirates

By Mark Polishuk | September 23, 2018 at 9:12pm CDT

The Giants are exploring the addition of “a high-profile baseball operations executive” to their front office, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (subscription required). The idea would be that this new hire would allow Brian Sabean to step back from some of the team’s day-to-day operations — Sabean’s resumption of this role last offseason was “regarded as only a temporary adjustment,” and Sabean would seemingly step back into his previous responsibilities as the team’s president of baseball operations. Olney’s report raises new questions about current Giants GM Bobby Evans, as there has already been speculation about his status for 2019, though obviously San Francisco could add a new voice to the front office mix without a major shakeup of the team’s baseball ops ladder.

Some more from around the NL…

Dexter Fowler’s season was ended after he suffered a fractured foot on August 3, though it had already been a trying year for the Cardinals outfielder, as he tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Fowler hit a career-worst .180/.278/.298 over 334 PA, and while he said physical injuries weren’t to blame for his struggles, “I think it was more mental health” that led to the down year. Fowler had to deal with public comments from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak about his level of effort (Mozeliak apologized for citing only Fowler as part of a larger issue within the team) and a seeming rift with former St. Louis manager Mike Matheny. The Cards have thoroughly turned their season around since Mike Shildt took over as manager, and Fowler has been excited about his team’s progress and his future in St. Louis. “Shoot, I’m watching what’s happened and I’m excited for 2019….I think that’s going to be awesome. I look forward to being a part of that,” Fowler said.
Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer were both removed from today’s game in the middle of an inning, so the two veteran Pirates infielders could receive a round of applause from the home crowd in what is likely to be their final game at PNC Park in the black-and-gold. Mercer is a free agent, and Pittsburgh is expected to decline its $10.5MM club option on Harrison for 2019, leaving room for Adam Frazier and Kevin Newman expected to take over at second base and shortstop next year. Harrison told reporters (including Jerry Dipaola of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review) that he hasn’t yet considered leaving the Pirates, while Mercer said is open to re-signing with the team.
The Pirates have suffered several late-season injuries that could leave those players (Gregory Polanco, Chad Kuhl, Edgar Santana, Joe Musgrove) sidelined for at least the first part of the 2019 season, which could impact the team’s offseason plans, Rob Biertempfel writes in a subscription-only piece for The Athletic. The statuses of Musgrove and Santana are still to be exactly determined, while the Bucs already know Kuhl will be out until 2020 due to Tommy John surgery and Polanco will be out until mid-April at the earliest following shoulder surgery.

NL West Notes: Goldschmidt, Blanco, Floro

By Steve Adams | September 20, 2018 at 8:01pm CDT

The Diamondbacks’ recent plummet out of contention in the NL West should force the team and fans alike to ask the uncomfortable question of how long Paul Goldschmidt will remain with the team, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Arizona holds a no-brainer $14.5MM option over Goldschmidt for the 2019 season, but he’s slated to hit free agency after that campaign. The D-backs don’t have tons of financial flexibility (thanks largely to enormous salaries for Zack Greinke and, to a lesser extent, Yasmany Tomas), and they’re lacking in the upper levels of the farm following numerous win-now trades. There’s also the question of how willing the team should be to commit what could be a $25MM+ annual salary to a player who’d be 32 years of age in the first season of that contract.

While the D-backs and Rockies aren’t in the same situation in terms of payroll and overall farm strength, Arizona’s Goldschmidt conundrum nonetheless has some parallels to the looming decision Colorado will need to make with regard to Nolan Arenado. Both players will be free agents following the 2019 season, and both franchise players could be difficult to extend now that they’ve come this close to reaching free agency.

Here’s more from the division…

Hunter Pence has recently ducked questions about whether he’ll continue his playing career beyond the current season, but Kerry Crowley of the San Francisco Chronicle notes that Pence isn’t the only Giants outfielder whose career could be in question. Veteran speedster Gregor Blanco discussed his future with Crowley, acknowledging that he’s not certain what type of interest he’ll draw in free agency but adding that he does hope to continue his career. “I’m really pleased and happy and proud of myself for my career, but I still have one more goal and that’s trying to make it to 10 years in the game,” said Blanco. The 34-year-old technically has already appeared in parts of 10 big league seasons, though his 2009 campaign was quite abbreviated (24 games, 48 PAs) and, in terms of Major League service time, he’ll finish 2018 with eight-plus years. It’s been a tough season at the plate for Blanco, who has batted just .225/.277/.331 through 174 trips to the plate.
Dylan Floro has proven to be an exceptional find for the Dodgers, writes Mark Whicker of the Southern California News Group. Acquired from the Reds alongside some international bonus pool space in a largely unheralded trade this summer, the journeyman Floro has delivered 27 innings of 1.33 ERA ball with 10.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.33 HR/9 and a 54.8 percent ground-ball rate. Floro discussed the manner in which he’s changed his pitch selection since returning to Los Angeles, as well as the way in which manager Dave Roberts’ confidence has made him feel at ease. “Mainly it’s been nice to know I’m going to get chances even if I have a rough night, and I’ve had a couple of those,” said Floro, who had previously been designated for assignment on four occasions (including once by the Dodgers, before ever pitching in a big league game for them).

Madison Bumgarner Discusses Future With Giants

By Jeff Todd | September 20, 2018 at 11:55am CDT

Giants southpaw Madison Bumgarner discussed his future with the organization in a chat with Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. It’s certainly well worth a full read.

Bumgarner, 29, says that the club has yet to reach out regarding a possible contract extension. As things stand, he indicated, he’s not sure what the team’s intentions are as it prepares for an offseason of uncertainty.

Of course, it’s certain that Bumgarner’s 2019 option will be exercised. But it’s at least possible to imagine the San Francisco club seeking offers after picking it up at a bargain $12MM rate. Despite some areas of concern that have arisen this year for the big lefty, there’d be plenty of demand for his services if he was made available.

Bumgarner says he hasn’t entertained the thought that his time with the Giants could conceivably be nearing an end, explaining that he’s “a one-day-at-a-time kind of guy.” Of course, he did also say that he’d “like to be [in San Francisco] my whole career,” so it seems fair to assume that Bumgarner isn’t exactly itching for a change of scenery.

Certainly, it’d be interesting to see how talks might progress if the Giants open negotiations with the southpaw’s reps at The Legacy Agency. His outstanding track record speaks for itself, of course. He’s a premium regular season performer and postseason legend.

Despite the obvious positives, Bumgarner has shown some cracks. He has missed significant time in each of the past two seasons, breaking a string of six-straight 200-inning campaigns. He also hasn’t been as dominant when on the hill. This year, for instance, Bumgarner has a 3.14 ERA but is averaging only 7.5 K/9 and surrendering a career-high 3.1 BB/9.

The future is uncertain to an extent not previously seen for one of the game’s preeminent workhorses. Estimators value Bumgarner as a low-4.00 ERA hurler. He’s allowing far more hard contact (40.1%) than ever before, while posting declines in swinging-strike rate (9.5%) and average fastball velocity (90.8 mph). That he has nevertheless succeeded is a credit to Bumgarner, to be sure, but sustainability remains in question.

As Schulman explains, there are a host of variables at play. Though Bumgarner says he doesn’t expect to command a premium for the excess value he provided under his early-career extension, he does note that “guys are looking to get paid what they think they’re worth compared to the market and how other players are getting paid.” What that might be in this case, and whether the Giants are positioned to make that sort of deal, is open to debate — and negotiation.

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