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Mariners Trade José Caballero To Rays For Luke Raley

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The Mariners already completed one trade today, sending Robbie Ray to the Giants in exchange for Mitch Haniger, Anthony DeSclafani and cash considerations, and have now completed a second. They are sending infielder José Caballero to the Rays in exchange for outfielder Luke Raley, per announcements from both clubs.

“We’re thrilled to add Luke Raley to the middle of our lineup as a left-handed bat with positional versatility,” Mariners general manager Justin Hollander said in that club’s press release. “Offensively, Luke brings power paired with game-changing baserunning and instincts. He’s also a solid defender across multiple positions, adding further flexibility to our lineup on a nightly basis.”

Raley, now 29, was drafted by the Dodgers and made a brief major league debut with them in 2021. He was traded to the Rays and then got some more limited MLB time in 2022. He finally got his first extended stretch of time in the big leagues last year and ran with it. He took 406 plate appearances over 118 games in 2023, striking out at a 31.5% clip but also hitting 19 home runs. His overall batting line of .249/.333/.490 translated to a wRC+ of 130, indicating he was 30% better than league average. He also stole 14 bases in 17 tries and received solid grades for his outfield defense while also spending a bit of time at first base.

Despite that strong performance, Raley was part of a crowded outfield mix that also featured Randy Arozarena, Josh Lowe and José Siri in regular roles. Yandy Díaz is set to likely be the everyday first baseman, while players like Harold Ramírez, Jonathan Aranda, Jonny DeLuca and others were in the mix for playing time as well. With Raley now out of options, he needed to be kept on the active roster or else be removed from the 40-man entirely.

In Seattle, the path to playing time should be more smooth. That club let Teoscar Hernández reach free agency without making him a qualifying offer and also traded Jarred Kelenic to Atlanta. They have since added Mitch Garver to be their primary designated hitter, and take a share of the catching time from Cal Raleigh, while Haniger was acquired earlier today to join the corner outfield mix.

Julio Rodríguez is entrenched in center but Raley and Haniger could perhaps take the corner regularly, with players like Cade Marlowe, Taylor Trammell and Dominic Canzone also a part of that corner outfield picture. At first base, Ty France has been the regular in Seattle for the past three years but his production dipped in 2023. If that continues into this year, Raley gives them a fallback option for that position.

The Rays mostly shielded Raley from left-handed pitchers, with 363 of his 406 plate appearances coming with the platoon advantage last year. His high strikeout rate also doesn’t mesh with Seattle’s stated intention to cut down in that department, but the power, speed and defense make him enticing nonetheless. He’s also still at least a year away from reaching arbitration, meaning he fits well on a club with financial concerns like the Mariners. He can be controlled for another five seasons before qualifying for free agency.

Caballero, 27, made his major league debut with the Mariners last year, getting into 104 games. He hit .221/.343/.320 in his 280 plate appearances, drawing a walk in 10% of them. That production amounted to a wRC+ of 96, indicating he was just 4% below league average. But he also stole 26 bases in 29 tries and received strong grades for his defense at the two middle infield positions, as well as spending small amounts of time at third base and left field.

The ability to play shortstop likely appeals to the Rays, who have plenty of uncertainty there. Wander Franco once seemed to be firmly entrenched in that position, having signed an 11-year extension going into the 2022 season. But he is currently under investigation for allegedly having inappropriate relationships with minors and it’s unknown when, if ever, he will play a Major League Baseball game again.

Assuming Franco isn’t an option in 2024, the Rays have guys like Taylor Walls, Junior Caminero and Osleivis Basabe as potential shortstops on the roster. However, none of that trio is a lock to hold down the job this year. Walls and Basabe are broadly considered strong defenders but weaker at the plate while Caminero is generally considered the opposite. Basabe and Caminero both have less than 100 major league plate appearances.

Caballero’s first taste of MLB action was subpar, but only slightly so. He’s always hit well in the minors, perhaps leaving some room for him to continue developing with more exposure to major league pitching. He still has a full slate of options and less than a year of service time, meaning he can be a long-term part of the Rays’ roster if things click.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the framework of the deal while Jeff Passan of ESPN first relayed that it had been completed.

Pirates, Mariners Have Shown Interest In Carlos Santana

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The Mariners and Pirates are among the teams showing interest in free agent first baseman Carlos Santana, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Both Heyman and Robert Murray of FanSided write that the Brewers also have continued interest, aligning with comments from Milwaukee GM Matt Arnold at the Winter Meetings.

As with Milwaukee, Seattle and Pittsburgh are each familiar with Santana. He has played for all three as part of a 14-year MLB career spanning six clubs. The Mariners acquired the veteran switch-hitter from the Royals at the 2022 deadline. He struggled to a .192/.293/.400 line across 294 plate appearances before hitting free agency last offseason.

That led Santana to Pittsburgh on a one-year, $6.725MM free agent pact. He hit .235/.321/.412 over 393 trips to the dish. Once the Bucs fell out of contention, he was on the move for the second straight summer. Pittsburgh dealt him to Milwaukee for a rookie ball infield prospect. At the time of the trade, the Pirates and Santana each expressed openness to revisiting talks this offseason.

Santana was a decent contributor for Milwaukee down the stretch. He connected on 11 homes in 52 games, batting .249/.314/.459. He finished the season with a .240/.318/.429 line with 23 home runs in 619 plate appearances between the NL Central rivals. While his 10.5% walk rate was a career low, it still checked in above league average. Santana takes free passes and remains difficult to strike out, although he annually posts very low averages on balls in play.

That has added up to around league average offensive production for the past four seasons. That’s not especially exciting at first base, but Santana contributes more than most at the position with the glove. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have continued to grade him as a plus defender even as he moves into his late-30s. Santana has also been very durable and is widely regarded as an excellent clubhouse presence (as evidenced by interest from three of his former teams).

Of that trio, Milwaukee seems the most straightforward. The Brewers don’t have an obvious answer at first base. Milwaukee acquired Jake Bauers from the Yankees and tendered him an arbitration contract, but he’s coming off a .202/.279/.413 showing in the Bronx.

Seattle and Pittsburgh have starting options at first base, although neither is coming off a great year. Ty France slumped to a .250/.337/.366 slash with below-average defensive grades. Still, France’s cumulative .285/.355/.443 showing between 2020-22 hints at a higher offensive ceiling than Santana provides at this stage of his career. The M’s signed Mitch Garver to handle the bulk of the designated hitting duties.

Pittsburgh brought in Santana’s former Milwaukee teammate Rowdy Tellez on a $3.2MM rebound flier. They re-signed Andrew McCutchen to take the DH spot. The Pirates could bump Tellez to the bench, but they’d be committing more money than they’re typically willing to first base/DH at that point. Santana is likely limited to another one-year deal but could find a similar salary to last year’s near-$7MM pact. With McCutchen, Tellez and Connor Joe ($2MM arbitration projection) all on the roster, a reunion could be a tough fit.

MLBTR Podcast: Yamamoto Fallout, the Sale/Grissom Trade and Transaction Roundup

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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On paper, a longer contract equals a larger amount of job security.  And yet every year, we seem to be adding a longer list of caveats to this annual post detailing which managers and front office bosses (a GM, president of baseball operations, chief baseball officer, or whatever the title may be) are entering the final guaranteed year of their contracts.

First off, this list is somewhat speculative — some teams don’t publicly announce the terms of employee contracts, nor are details always leaked to reporters.  It is entirely possible some of the names listed have already quietly agreed to new deals, or were already contracted beyond 2024.  Secondly, obviously a contract only carries so much weight if a team drastically underperforms, and if ownership feels a change is needed in the dugout or in the front office.  Or, ownership might still desire a change even if the team is doing well on the field, i.e. the Marlins parting ways with Kim Ng after a wild card berth last season.

Craig Counsell’s five-year, $40MM deal to become the Cubs’ new manager also provides an interesting wrinkle to the managerial market.  With Counsell’s contract setting a new modern benchmark for managerial salaries, some of the more established skippers on this list will surely be looking to match or top Counsell’s deal.  These managers might choose (as Counsell did) to finish the year without signing a new contract and then test the open market, since you never know when a mystery team like the Cubs might swoop in to top the field.

As always, thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contract terms.

Angels: The Halos have had eight consecutive losing seasons, including the first three years of Perry Minasian’s stint as general manager.  Minasian now faces the challenge of trying to break this losing streak without Shohei Ohtani on the roster, and even before Ohtani joined the Dodgers, Minasian was clear that the Angels weren’t going to be rebuilding.  This tracks with the overall aggressive nature of owner Arte Moreno, yet this approach has also manifested itself in five non-interim GMs running the Angels since Moreno bought the team in 2003.  As Minasian enters the last year of his contract, it will take at least a winning season to keep Moreno from making yet another front office change.

Athletics: There hasn’t been any word about an extension for general manger David Forst, even though Forst’s last deal purportedly expired after the 2023 season.  It can therefore probably be assumed that Forst inked a new deal at some point, as it has appeared to be business as usual for the longtime Oakland executive this winter (or as “usual” as business can be given the Athletics’ bare-bones rebuild and the unusual nature of the team’s impending move to Las Vegas).  Manager Mark Kotsay would’ve been entering the final guaranteed year of his original deal with the A’s, except the team exercised their club option on Kotsay through the 2025 season.

Braves: Alex Anthopoulos is entering the last season of his three-year extension as Atlanta’s president of baseball operations, and one would imagine that ownership will aim to lock Anthopoulos up to another deal as soon as possible.  The Braves have won six straight NL East titles and the 2021 World Series championship during Anthopoulos’ six seasons with the organization, and look to be contenders for years to come thanks to the core of star players under long-term deals.  Anthopoulos would seemingly be eager to stay in Atlanta for this same reason, though if he did choose to play out the year and test the market, he would undoubtedly command a lot of interest from teams looking for a new chief executive.

Cardinals: For just the third time in the last century, a Cardinals team lost 91 or more games.  This unexpected interruption in the Cards’ run of success has naturally put a lot of heat on Oliver Marmol, who is entering the final season of his three-year contract.  Unsurprisingly, the team had yet to have any extension talks with Marmol as of early December, and it remains to be seen if Marmol will get even one extra year of security.  With such franchise stalwarts as Yadier Molina or Joe McEwing perhaps waiting in the wings as managers of the future, Marmol will surely need a quick start and at least a winning record in 2024 to retain his job.

Guardians: Chris Antonetti’s contract details haven’t been publicly known for more than a decade, yet there isn’t any sense that the longtime executive will be leaving Ohio any time soon.  Antonetti has been part of Cleveland’s front office since 1999, and he has been running the baseball ops department (first as GM and then as president of baseball operations) since 2010.  While the Guardians stumbled to a 76-86 record last year, Antonetti has a long track record of building contending teams on low payrolls, and he’ll now embark on a new era with Stephen Vogt replacing Terry Francona as the Guards’ manager.

Mariners: Another somewhat speculative situation, as while president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais signed extensions in September 2021, the exact length of those extensions wasn’t reported.  It is probably fair to assume both men are signed beyond 2024, though Servais’ previous two deals were three-year contracts, and 2024 would be his final guaranteed year if the skipper’s latest contract was also a three-year pact.

Orioles: Baltimore is particularly mum about the details of any employee contracts, as GM Mike Elias’ contract terms have never been publicized since he took over the club in November 2018.  Manager Brandon Hyde has already signed one extension that flew under the radar, and that deal has apparently stretched beyond the 2023 season, as there hasn’t been any suggestion that Hyde won’t return to the AL East champions.  In either case, Elias and Hyde won’t seem to have any worries about job security given how the Orioles won 101 games last year, and might be budding powerhouses for the next decade given the amount of young talent on the roster and in the minor league pipeline.

Pirates: Ben Cherington is entering his fifth season as Pittsburgh’s general manager, and terms of his original deal weren’t reported.  With the Bucs perhaps starting to turn the corner after their long rebuild, there wouldn’t appear to be any reason for ownership to move on from Cherington, if he hasn’t already been quietly signed to a new deal.  The Pirates already extended manager Derek Shelton back in April, in another hint that ownership is satisfied with the team’s direction.

Rays: Kevin Cash’s last extension was a lengthy six-year deal covering the 2019-24 seasons, with a club option for 2025.  It seems like a lock that the Rays will at least exercise that club option and seek out another multi-year deal, and Cash has a good case to argue for a Counsell-esque contract.  Widely considered one of baseball’s best managers, Cash is 739-617 over his nine seasons in Tampa Bay and has led the team to five consecutive postseason berths.

Red Sox: Alex Cora is entering the final year of his contract, and the Red Sox are coming off a pair of last-place finishes in the AL East.  Despite these results, the blame seems to have been placed on now-fired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, as there hasn’t been much indication that ownership is dissatisfied with Cora’s performance as manager.  Since Cora has hinted that he might like to run a front office himself in the future, it will be interesting to monitor if he might pursue those ambitions as soon as next offseason, or if he might sign a new extension with the Red Sox as manager, or if Cora could perhaps let the season play out and then accept bids from several suitors outside of Boston.

Rockies: In each of the last two Februarys, Bud Black has signed a one-year extension to tack an extra year onto his run as Colorado’s manager.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see Black do the same this spring, as past reports have indicated that Black and the Rockies are working on an unofficial roll-over arrangement with the manager’s contract status.  As loyal as owner Dick Monfort is known to be with his employees, however, one wonders if the Rockies’ 103-loss season in 2023 (or their five straight losing seasons) might lead to questions about Black’s future, even if the team’s roster construction or their boatload of pitching injuries last year can’t be blamed on Black.  For what it’s worth, the terms of GM Bill Schmidt’s deal weren’t publicized when Schmidt was promoted to the full-time position after the 2021 season, though Schmidt isn’t thought to be in any danger of being replaced.

Twins: Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine are both apparently entering the final year of their contracts, though Minnesota has been known to be somewhat quiet about employee contracts (such as manager Rocco Baldelli’s last extension).  The duo known as “Falvine” have been on the job for seven seasons, with something of an all-or-nothing track record of either losing seasons or playoff berths, and the Twins were on the upswing again with an AL Central title in 2023.  Assuming either exec hasn’t already signed an under-the-radar extension, the Twins would seemingly be eager to retain both Falvey and Levine, though either could explore options elsewhere for at least leverage purposes.  For Levine in particular, he could be looking to lead his own front office, after being a finalist for Boston’s CBO job this fall and previously getting some consideration for front office vacancies with the Rockies and Phillies in recent years.

Yankees: Perhaps no skipper in baseball faces more public pressure than Aaron Boone, given how a lot of Bronx fans were calling for his ouster even before the Yankees missed the playoffs and won only 82 games in 2023.  Boone is entering the last guaranteed year of his contract, and the Yankees have a club option on his services for 2025.  For as much loyalty as owner Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman have shown to Boone, it is hard to imagine the manager would be retained if New York doesn’t at least make the postseason again, and another miss could also raise some new questions about Cashman’s status (though his deal runs through the 2026 season).

Mariners Sign Mitch Garver

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The Mariners announced the signing of Mitch Garver to a two-year contract on Thursday afternoon.  The deal, which also includes a mutual option for 2026, reportedly guarantees the ISE Baseball client $24MM.  Seattle’s 40-man roster count sits at 37.

While Cal Raleigh is still Seattle’s top backstop, Garver gives the Mariners a prominent bat who can act as both a backup catcher and a regular presence at designated hitter.  This was the role Garver filled with aplomb for the Rangers last season, as he hit .270/.370/.500 with 19 homers over 344 plate appearances while mostly acting as a DH to allow All-Star Jonah Heim regular time behind the plate.  Garver was then the exclusive first-choice DH for the Rangers’ postseason run, as he hit .226/.317/.434 with three homers over 60 PA to help Texas capture its first World Series title.

It wasn’t an entirely perfect platform season for Garver, however, as he missed close to two full months early in the season due to a left knee sprain.  This continued a pattern of injuries that has plagued Garver throughout his career, as he has played in only 232 of a possible 546 games since the start of the 2020 season.  These health issues (ranging from forearm surgery, an intercostal strain, and knee, groin, and back problems) have contributed to Garver’s increasingly limited usage at catcher, as the move to a DH role should help him stay on the field with a bit more regularity.

This led to something of a tricky entry into free agency for Garver, as while he was technically the top catcher on the market, it would’ve been risky for a team to rely on him for anything more than a timeshare at the position.  As MLBTR’s Nick Deeds suggested back in October, Garver’s ideal landing spot might be “a team with another reliable catching option, so Garver could have a clear path to DH playing time and face less pressure to regularly suit up behind the plate.”

The Mariners fit the bill perfectly, with Raleigh establishing himself as the No. 1 catcher and a big power source over the last two seasons.  The switch-hitting Raleigh has much better numbers against right-handers than against left-handers, which dovetails nicely with the right-handed hitting Garver’s ability to mash left-handed pitching.

Tom Murphy signed with the Giants last week, though the M’s seemingly prepared for that departure by acquiring catcher Seby Zavala as part of the Eugenio Suarez trade with the Diamondbacks.  If Garver is going to primarily be a DH, the Mariners might still have room for Zavala on the roster to act as more of a traditional backup catcher.  This could avoid some roster maneuverings since Zavala is out of minor league options, so the Mariners would have to designate him for assignment and expose him to the waiver wire if they wanted to send him to the minor leagues.

Seattle was known to be looking for a power bat for its DH spot, and a right-handed hitter in particular to help balance out the lineup.  Such names as Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, and Rhys Hoskins were reportedly on the Mariners’ radar, but Garver will now join the roster on a two-year pact.  It’s a little less than the three-year, $39MM that MLBTR projected for Garver, though it’s still a nice payday for a player teams might’ve seen as more of a pure DH than as a regular backstop.

Adding a big bat at any price also helps change the narrative of what has been a distressing offseason for Mariners fans.  The Mariners are set to assume total ownership of the ROOT Sports Northwest regional sports network on January 1, and the related additional costs have reportedly limited the team’s ability to spend on player payroll.  President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said in early December that the Mariners’ payroll would rise from its estimated $140MM figure from 2023, yet most of the club’s moves prior to the Garver signing were designed to cut costs.  Suarez’s trade removed one big salary from the books, and Seattle then got rid of a lot more money in the five-player trade with the Braves that saw Jarred Kelenic dealt essentially as a manner of unloading the contracts of Marco Gonzales and Evan White.

As per Roster Resource, the Mariners’ projected 2024 payroll now sits at around $128.5MM with Garver’s salary added.  With the $140MM number from 2023 in mind, this still gives the M’s some flexibility to pursue further needs, like an outfielder or infield help.  Dipoto has downplayed the idea of trading from the team’s young pitching depth, yet that might be a more cost-effective way of obtaining position-player help than by signing another free agent.

Signing Garver already represents a departure for Dipoto in one sense, as he doesn’t often make notable splashes in free agency.  Remarkably, Garver is only the first position-player free agent (and only the fourth free agent whatsoever) Dipoto has signed to a multi-year contract during his eight years running Seattle’s front office.  This might imply that Garver could be it for the Mariners this winter as far as relatively notable free agent signings go, or perhaps Dipoto will change tactics and look at other free agents in order to further bolster the lineup.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Mariners and Garver had agreed to a two-year, $24MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

MLBTR Podcast: Tyler Glasnow, Jung Hoo Lee, D-Backs’ Signings and the Braves’ Confusing Moves

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, Steve Adams joins to answer your questions, including…

  • What’s going on with Atlanta shuffling all these contracts around? (21:25)
  • Will the Mariners do anything with the payroll they jettisoned? (30:15)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

The Best Remaining Fits For Cody Bellinger

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For the past six weeks, the offseason has centered on three individuals: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the first two having found new homes and Yamamoto expected to choose his team within a week or two, there’s likely to be greater attention placed on Cody Bellinger.

MLBTR’s #2 free agent entering the winter, Bellinger has had a quiet offseason since declining his end of a mutual option and rejecting a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Early reports tied the lefty-hitting center fielder to the Yankees, Giants and Blue Jays. The incumbents have some amount of interest in a reunion, although the presence of highly-regarded rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong gives them leverage to pass on what’s surely still a lofty asking price.

Last week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote that Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation were seeking to reach or surpass $200MM. Yet it’s fair to presume that the former MVP’s market has dwindled over the past month. Along with Soto, the Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham to join Aaron Judge in the outfield. San Francisco signed Jung Hoo Lee to play center field instead. That knocks out the two teams widely perceived as the favorites. (At the beginning of the offseason, every MLBTR staffer pegged the Giants or Yankees as Bellinger’s landing spot in our Free Agent prediction contest.)

Where does that leave things for the two-time All-Star?

Likeliest Fits

  • Angels: It’s difficult to identify exactly where the Angels go from here. Los Angeles has thus far limited its offseason activity to a trio of low-cost middle relief additions (Luis García, Adam Cimber and Adam Kolarek). Ohtani was their top priority. After losing him, they’ll need to determine how aggressively to add to a roster that won only 73 games despite his MVP performance. GM Perry Minasian and new skipper Ron Washington have been clear they’re not about to rebuild. Bringing in a front-line starting pitcher appears the top priority, but they’ll also need to address a lineup that ranked 16th in runs and lost a .304/.412/.654 hitter. Bellinger would give the Angels an option to cover center field if Mike Trout needs any time on the injured list. He’d push Mickey Moniak to a fourth outfield role and could take some of the available DH at-bats. He’s also a marquee name who starred in Los Angeles, which could hold appeal to owner Arte Moreno.
  • Blue Jays: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Jays looked like the top suitor for Bellinger. It’s not hard to see why. The Jays came up empty on their pursuits of Ohtani and Soto. While no one would consider Bellinger the same kind of upgrade, Toronto still has ample short-term payroll space and a need for a left-handed bat. They’re also without a clear answer in center field after Kevin Kiermaier hit free agency. The Jays could sign a corner outfielder and bump Daulton Varsho to center (or simply try to re-sign Kiermaier), but Bellinger is the best all-around position player on the open market.
  • Cubs: Bellinger was among the Cubs’ most valuable players a season ago. While they may have initially viewed him as a one-year stopgap to Crow-Armstrong, there’s an argument for bringing him back. The Cubs don’t have a clear option at first base, where Bellinger is a plus defender. His ability to play all three outfield spots would afford the organization the flexibility to start Crow-Armstrong in Triple-A (where he struck out at a concerning rate in 34 games last season) without needing to rely on journeyman Mike Tauchman to maintain his surprisingly strong form from 2023. Even if Tauchman and/or Crow-Armstrong prove deserving of everyday playing time, the Cubs could rotate Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki through designated hitter to keep their outfield fresh.

Longer Shots

  • Mets: New York could upgrade over either Starling Marte or DJ Stewart in the corner outfield. There’s room for Bellinger to join Brandon Nimmo as a long-term outfield investment, but it doesn’t seem that’s how the front office is approaching this winter. The Mets are in on Yamamoto but appear to view him as an exceptional case in what’d otherwise be a relatively quiet offseason as they focus primarily on 2025.
  • Nationals: While Washington isn’t an immediate contender, they could make a legitimate push for the playoffs by the ’25 season. Bellinger, who turned 28 in July, would still project as a productive player during that window. The Nats have top outfield prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood looming, but only Lane Thomas should have a short-term spot locked down. The Nationals struck early on the Jayson Werth signing to accelerate a rebuild a decade ago. There’d be some sense in doing that again, but they’ve been fairly quiet in recent offseasons and still have organizational uncertainty regarding their local TV deal as part of the contentious MASN arrangement with the Orioles.
  • Phillies: Philadelphia is involved on Yamamoto, suggesting an ability to stretch the budget for the right player. Whether Bellinger qualifies isn’t clear. Brandon Marsh is a solid center field option, while the Phils have Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache as options for the corner opposite Nick Castellanos. It’s not a terrible outfield, but it’s also perhaps the weakest area of an otherwise excellent roster. The Phils haven’t shied away from pursuing star talent under owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

Payroll Questions

  • Mariners: Seattle is likely to bring in at least one outfielder to join Julio Rodríguez and a group that otherwise consists of players like Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Sam Haggerty. Bellinger fits on the roster, but the M’s have thus far sliced payroll amidst uncertainty about the revenues from their local TV deal with Root Sports. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto hasn’t signed a free agent hitter to a multi-year contract in his eight-plus years leading the Seattle front office. Breaking that streak with Bellinger would be a massive shift in operating procedure.
  • Padres: Much of what applies to the Mariners can be said about the Padres. They want to compete after a disappointing playoff miss. They need outfield help to do so. Yet they’re also facing questions about their broadcasting deal and have only cut payroll so far this offseason. With Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal pushing beyond their spending range, it’s hard to see how they could make Bellinger work.
  • Rangers: The defending World Series winners could ostensibly make room for Bellinger, perhaps by trading incumbent center fielder Leody Taveras to address an injury-plagued rotation. GM Chris Young has suggested they’re unlikely to make the kind of free agent splash they have in prior offseasons, though, so it’s far likelier they stick with an internal group of Adolis García, Taveras and Evan Carter while awaiting the arrival of top prospect Wyatt Langford.

Julio Rodríguez Tops 2023 Pre-Arb Bonus Pool

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Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez will receive $1,865,349 from the $50MM bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, the highest of the 2023 recipients, per a report from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. The AP later released a full list of bonus recipients.

A notable new element of the current collective bargaining agreement is that $50MM is to be taken from central revenues annually and distributed to players that have not yet qualified for arbitration. Certain portions of the money are to be based on awards voting:

  • Rookie of the Year: $750K for first place, $500K for second place
  • MVP and Cy Young: $2.5MM for first place, $1.75MM for second place, $1.5MM for third place, $1MM for fourth or fifth place
  • All-MLB: $1MM for being named “First Team,” $500K for being named “Second Team”

As Blum highlights today, a player is eligible to receive the bonus for one of those achievements per year, earning only the highest amount. Rodríguez finished fourth in American League MVP voting, meaning he got $1MM for that, which accounted for the majority of his payout. After the bonuses, the remainder of the pool is divided on a percentage basis among the top 100 players based on the joint MLB/MLBPA-created version of WAR.

Players are still eligible even if they have signed extensions, as long as they would have been pre-arb without signing such a deal. Rodríguez and the Mariners signed a convoluted extension towards the end of his rookie season in 2022 but he’s only at two years of service time now. Since he would have been pre-arb without that extension, he was able to top this year’s pool.

The following 10 players got more than $1MM:

Last year, Dylan Cease got the biggest slice of the 2022 pie, taking home $2,457,426.

Mariners Reportedly Interested In Rhys Hoskins

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The Mariners have interest in first baseman Rhys Hoskins, according to a report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. Hoskins is considered unlikely to return to his longtime club in Philadelphia after the Phillies shifted Bryce Harper to first base full time earlier this offseason.

Hoskins, 31 in March, missed the entire 2023 season due to a torn ACL but was one of the league’s premiere power hitters since his first full-season as a major leaguer back in 2018. Over that time, Hoskins’s 130 homers tied with slugger J.D. Martinez for 15th among all MLB hitters while his isolated slugging ranks 24th, just below the likes of Giancarlo Stanton and Matt Olson while clocking in just ahead of players like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Juan Soto.

That sort of prodigious power production would surely help the Mariners, particularly after the club saw Teoscar Hernandez depart for free agency while parting ways with Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic, and Mike Ford. Those departures have left Seattle in position to improve their contact rate relative to last season, but short on power. The four aforementioned players combined for 75 of the club’s 210 home runs last season, leaving Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh as the lineup’s only reliable sources of power. Hoskins could improve the club’s power potential while also offering a palatable career strikeout rate of 23.9% that wouldn’t conflict with their goal of a more contact-oriented offense in 2024.

That said, the fit between the Mariners and Hoskins isn’t perfect, as the club currently has Ty France as their everyday first baseman. France was one of the Mariners’ better contact hitters in 2023 as he struck out at a clip of just 17.6%, but the 29-year-old’s 104 wRC+ indicates that his overall production left something to be desired, particularly given his offense-first position of first base. If Hoskins were head up north to Seattle, it’s possible that France, who has logged occasional time at second and third base throughout his career, could pitch in all around the infield while also spelling Hoskins at first base, allowing him to ease back into an everyday role with DH starts after his lengthy absence due to injury. Of course, it’s also worth noting that the club fielded trade offers on France in the run-up to the trade deadline last summer, though it’s unclear if any such conversations have occurred this winter.

Hoskins isn’t the only power hitter the Mariners have been attached to in recent weeks, as free agent sluggers Jorge Soler and Martinez have both been rumored as potential targets for Seattle as well. Martinez is a somewhat questionable fit for a team looking to prioritize contact, as he posted a strikeout rate north of 30% in 2023, but Soler could prove to be an even better fit for Seattle’s needs than Hoskins given their dearth of outfield depth. Hoskins also has more suitors beyond Seattle, as he’s been connected to the Nationals in recent weeks while also reportedly discussing multiple potential contract frameworks with the Cubs.

Mariners To Take 100 Percent Control Of ROOT Sports Northwest Network

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The Mariners will take full ownership of the ROOT Sports Northwest regional sports network on January 1, according to Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times.  The Mariners had already held a 71% share in ROOT Sports NW since 2013, and they’ll now assume the 29% share previously held by Warner Bros. Discovery, as the corporation is getting out of the RSN business.

This could mean some cuts at ROOT, as Mariners chairman John Stanton met with staffers on Tuesday and “could not promise all staffers that they would retain their jobs,” Divish and Jude write.  More clarity will emerge on the organizational side by mid-January, Stanton told the ROOT employees, and in a statement to Divish/Jude, Stanton said “our top priority is to ensure all Mariners fans have access to watch Mariners games from their home each night.”

In addition to the M’s, ROOT is also the broadcast home of the NHL’s Seattle Kraken, as well as the NBA’s Portland Trail Blazers and (in select markets) Utah Jazz, and some college basketball games involving schools in the Pacific Northwest.  As such, any decision the Mariners take about ROOT’s future involves several other teams and existing contracts, and it isn’t necessarily a guarantee that the M’s will remain with ROOT in its current form.

As Divish and Jude note, the Mariners might opt to sell their broadcasting rights to Major League Baseball itself, following the path of some teams whose TV rights were impacted by the Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy announcement last March.  Even the M’s might explore this possibility in the future, however, the “most likely decision” for 2024 is that the team will continue ROOT productions as usual, and simply absorb the new costs associated with full ownership of the network.

Owning a regional sports network has traditionally been seen a positive or even a cash cow for teams in various sports, though the broadcasting landscape has changed rather drastically as more and more customers have either cut back on cable subscriptions or cut the cord entirely.  Comcast Xfinity announced in October that it was planning to double the cost of a subscription to ROOT, which could have even more of an adverse impact on viewership.

With WBD out of the picture, the Mariners will now carry the full brunt of additional costs themselves, and the impact is already being seen in the team’s baseball operations decisions.  Cutting payroll has been the chief focus of Seattle’s offseason to date, and president of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto has suggested that the M’s may spend beyond their $140MM payroll for 2023, but perhaps not much beyond.  Seattle has about $117.24MM on the books for 2024 as per Roster Resource, giving the club some but not a ton of spending flexibility as the Mariners look to upgrade their offense.  Dipoto has always been more prone to roster-building via trades than by free agency anyway, but Dipoto might need to be more creative than usual in finding deals that will help the M’s without breaking the bank.

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