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Marcus Stroman Drawing Widespread Interest

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The free agent starting pitching market has gotten off to a fast start, but there hasn’t yet been any movement among the top tier of arms. There’s surely robust interest in each of the class’ top starters, particularly given that the market for mid-tier options has already proven quite strong. Some clarity has emerged on the bidding for one of those top hurlers: right-hander Marcus Stroman.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports (Twitter link) that the Red Sox, Giants, Cubs, Angels and incumbent Mets are among the clubs with interest in Stroman. The Angels were already reported to be suitors, but the other four teams represent newly-known entrants into his market. Jon Morosi of MLB.com, meanwhile, adds the Mariners as another potential suitor for Stroman.

No one in that group is particularly surprising, as each of that quintet has been known to be seeking starting pitching. The Giants, Cubs and Angels have all made one or more notable rotation pickups already, but each reportedly remained in the bidding for Steven Matz even after landing other starters. The Red Sox and Mets were also known Matz suitors, and they’re both facing rotation uncertainty this winter. Boston has already seen Eduardo Rodríguez depart, while the Mets have lost Noah Syndergaard and would need to replace Stroman were he to sign elsewhere.

Stroman’s a sensible target for any team looking to bolster its rotation. The 30-year-old has been a reliable source of above-average innings for essentially the entirety of his career. He’s started 32+ games and exceeded 175 innings in four of the past five full seasons, with his 19 starts and 102 1/3 frames in 2018 the lone exception. (Stroman also opted out of the shortened 2020 campaign). Going back to the start of 2016, he ranks fifteenth in innings pitched, consistently shouldering a heavy workload in spite of his slight frame.

Over the course of his career, Stroman typically hasn’t had an approach geared towards missing many bats. He’s coming off a career-best 11.6% swinging strike rate, though, a mark that’s a hair above the 10.9% league average for starters. Generating an average or better amount of whiffs would be more of an ancillary bonus than anything, as Stroman’s calling cards are plus strike-throwing and plenty of grounders.

The sinkerballer has induced grounders on over half the balls in play against him in each season of his career, routinely surpassing 60% ground-ball rates during his time with the Blue Jays. His 50.8% rate in 2021 was a career-low, but that figure was still eight points above the league mark. That consistency in inducing ground-ball contact has allowed Stroman to remain mostly impervious to longballs, as he’s never allowed even one homer per nine innings in a season during his big league career.

Stroman played out the 2021 campaign with the Mets after accepting the club’s qualifying offer last winter. Players can’t be tagged with a QO more than once in their careers, so Stroman hit the market this winter unencumbered. Signing clubs won’t have to forfeit a draft choice to land the former first-round pick, and the Mets wouldn’t receive any compensation were he to depart.

Between Stroman’s consistently strong track record and the lack of a QO, he profiles as one of the more appealing options in this winter’s class. Stroman doesn’t boast the swing-and-miss stuff of some of this offseason’s other top options, but he’s also proven capable of thriving in spite of below-average strikeout numbers. The Duke University product has posted an ERA under 4.00 in four of his six seasons with 100+ innings pitched, and his 3.02 mark in 2021 was a personal best. Entering the offseason, MLBTR placed Stroman eleventh on the Top 50 free agents, forecasting a five-year, $110MM guarantee.

Mariners, Angels Among Teams Showing Interest In Kevin Gausman

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The Mariners and Angels are both showing some degree of interest in free-agent righty Kevin Gausman, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Gausman has also been tied to the Blue Jays and the incumbent Giants, who have been active in the rotation market this week.

Either Seattle or Anaheim would make a sensible destination for Gausman, who enjoyed a breakout showing in San Francisco over the past two seasons. Gausman, who signed a $9MM deal with the 2020 Giants and returned after accepting an $18.9MM qualifying offer, pitched to an even 3.00 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate in 251 innings with San Francisco from 2020-21. Both the Mariners and Angels are known to be on the hunt for rotation upgrades, and Seattle in particular has the payroll space to accommodate any free agent on the market.

The Mariners have just four players on guaranteed contracts for the 2022 season and a fairly light arbitration class beyond slugging right fielder Mitch Haniger. All in all, Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects a payroll in the $59MM range — more than $100MM lower than the franchise’s previous record-high. Seattle is also in the market for a big right-handed bat in the infield, but the only locks in the rotation at present are Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen and Logan Gilbert, so some rotation help is sure to be added as well. The biggest question for the Mariners is whether they’ll take the plunge on a pair of marquee free agents (e.g. Gausman and a big-name infielder) or stick to one free agent and make their other big addition on the trade market.

Down the coast in Orange County, the Angels have already made one significant splash in the rotation, adding Noah Syndergaard on a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $21MM. Syndergaard added another high-upside arm to a rotation mix including reigning MVP Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, Jaime Barria and top prospect Reid Detmers — but the Angels could certainly use a more established and durable arm like Gausman to help stabilize the top end of the rotation.

The question for the Angels is whether they’ll buck a longstanding trend of eschewing long-term deals for pitchers. As recently explored at MLBTR, the last free-agent starting pitcher to whom the Angels committed multiple years was Joe Blanton way back in 2012. The Halos’ recent signing of Aaron Loup was just the third pitcher — free agent or otherwise — the Angels have signed to a multi-year deal since that Blanton signing (the others being a two-year extension for closer Huston Street and a two-year deal buying out Ohtani’s first two arbitration seasons).

The last pitcher the Angels signed for three or more years was C.J. Wilson (five years, $77.5MM) a decade and three general managers ago. The Angels have pursued other free-agent starters on multi-year deals in that time (and reportedly made an offer to Steven Matz this week), but the team has never been comfortable with the top-end prices required to sign those pitchers at the end of the day.

Gausman, now free of a qualifying offer and having repeated his 2020 K-BB% gains over the course of a full season, is likely in position to command a free-agent deal of at least five seasons in length. Gausman ranked fifth on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent rankings at the beginning of the offseason.

Mariners Select Julio Rodriguez, Two Others

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The Mariners announced Thursday that they’ve selected the contract of top outfield prospect Julio Rodriguez, thus adding him to the 40-man roster and protecting him from the 2021 Rule 5 Draft. Also added to the 40-man roster were fellow outfielder Alberto Rodriguez and lefty Ray Kerr. Seattle’s 40-man roster is now up to a total of 39 players.

Rodriguez was about the most obvious 40-man addition any team would make in advance of tomorrow afternoon’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft. The 20-year-old is heralded as a potential superstar, ranking as the sport’s No. 2 overall prospect at Baseball America and MLB.com and landing No. 6 over at FanGraphs.

Despite his youth, Rodriguez is expected to make his big league debut at some point in 2022 — if not on Opening Day then perhaps early in the year. (The looming collective bargaining talks could impact the timing.) Rodriguez, 21 in late December, split the 2021 season between Class-A Advanced and Double-A, turning in a dominant .347/.441/.560 against much older and more experienced pitching (particularly in Double-A). The Mariners are expected to be aggressive in free agency and in trades this winter as they look to launch themselves back into the postseason, but president of baseball operations has already stated there’s “no scenario” where Rodriguez or the other very best prospects in his system are traded (link via The Athletic’s Corey Brock).

As for Alberto Rodriguez, the Mariners picked up from the Blue Jays in the 2020 trade that sent Taijuan Walker to Toronto. About nine months older than Julio, Alberto split the 2021 season between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, hitting at a .289/.379/.470 clip with 10 home runs, 31 doubles, five triples and 15 steals. The 21-year-old’s best skill is his considerable raw power, per scouting reports at BA, MLB.com and FanGraphs, though there are concerns about his hit tool and defense in the outfield corners. The elder Rodriguez generally ranks in the No. 20-25 range on Mariners prospects lists, although Seattle has arguably the best farm system in baseball, so he’d place higher with most other teams.

Kerr, 27, joined the Mariners as an undrafted free agent in 2017 and has steadily risen through the system. After working as a starter early in his pro career, the 6’3″ lefty moved to the bullpen in 2021 and notched a combined 3.18 ERA with a huge 36.8% strikeout rate, a slightly high but manageable 9.8% walk rate, and a strong 53% ground-ball rate. A hard-throwing southpaw who can touch the upper 90s, miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at that rate in Double-A/Triple-A would surely have piqued the interest of other clubs. The Mariners’ selection of Kerr immediately thrusts him into the mix for a bullpen spot next season — particularly given the lack of proven southpaws in the relief mix at present.

Latest On Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien

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The deadline for players issued qualifying offers to decide on whether or not to accept has now passed, with Brandon Belt of the Giants being the only one out of the group of 14 to accept and return to his previous team. That means the 13 players who turned down the $18.4MM offer are now attached to draft pick forfeiture, including Carlos Correa. Of course, a player of Correa’s skill level won’t see his market greatly affected by a detail like that. In fact, MLBTR recently placed the star shortstop at the top of this year’s list of free agents and projected that he would land a contract of $320MM over ten years, despite the qualifying offer.

Another thing that apparently won’t stand in his way is any lingering resentment out of the Yankee organization in regard to the 2017 Astros sign-stealing scandal. It has been speculated by some people that the Yankees may not want to make a high profile acquisition of Correa, given he was a member of that now-infamous team, which defeated the Yankees in the ALCS before going on to beat the Dodgers in the World Series. But the Yankees decision makers have made comments that seem to suggest it won’t be an issue for them.

When asked if the scandal would play a role in how the team views Correa, Boone said “No,” per Dan Martin of the New York Post, but did acknowledge that the players would have to feel the same way. “Anytime we’re involved in a free agent that’s of large significance and will attract a lot of years and dollars, we’re all gonna feel really good about it.” The article also relays a statement general manager Brian Cashman made last week, saying, “Things like [fan or player sentiment are] not part of that process.”

Hal Steinbrenner evidently feels similar, as Jeff Passan of ESPN relays a quote from the team’s managing partner. “I think most people have moved on from that,” he said. “I mean, I think it’s only healthy to move on from things like that instead of stewing on it year after year. But, you know, people have the opinion that they want to have about that particular player. But, in general, we’re going to look at every single option. It’s the same thing we do every year.”

That’s surely good news for Correa, as he and his representatives will want as many teams in the bidding as possible, especially historically big spenders such as the Yankees. The club is certainly a fit for a shortstop, since moving Gleyber Torres to second base in September. However, they may opt not to make a long commitment to Correa, or any of the other highly-touted free agent shortstops, on account of prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe. “No question that factors in because we do feel in Peraza and Volpe we do have two long-time impact big-league players,’’ said Boone. “We’re excited about those players and believe they are real. That factors into any decisions the organization and [Cashman] make.”

Volpe is generally regarded above Peraza by prospect evaluators, as he is ranked the 18th prospect in all of baseball by FanGraphs, 22nd by Baseball America and 15th by MLB Pipeline, whereas Pereza comes in 48th for FanGraphs and 58th for both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. However, Volpe has only climbed as far as High-A in the Yankees’ system, meaning he’s unlikely to be an option for the big league club in the short term. Peraza, on the other hand, played most of 2021 at Double-A and finished the season with eight games at Triple-A, making it at least feasible that the club decides to forego a big expenditure at the position, although it’s also possible that’s just posturing for negotiating purposes.

Elsewhere around the league, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times doesn’t see the Mariners as a fit for Correa, based on the contract length. He reports that it’s believed Correa is trying to get within range of Francisco Lindor’s $341MM ten-year extension or “at least an 8- to 9-year deal with an average of $30 million per season and an opt-out clause.” Divish opines that Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto may not want to sign a contract of quite that length, based on his personal experiences trying to work around contracts like that, citing the Albert Pujols contract from Dipoto’s time in Anaheim as well as the Robinson Cano contract that was already on the books when he came to Seattle.

Marcus Semien, however, could be a better fit for the Mariners. He’s almost exactly four years older than Correa – 31 and 27, respectively – meaning he won’t be able to demand a contract of quite the same length. MLBTR predicted he could garner a contract of $138MM over six years, an average annual value of $23MM. But Divish has a different framing on the situation, saying, “The thinking is that the Mariners might have to offer him a five-year, $140-$150 million contract to keep him from going to San Francisco or New York on a four-year deal.”

$150MM over five years would be $30MM per season and make Semien one of the highest-paid players in the game by average annual value, which would be an incredible feat considering that he had to settle for a one-year, $18MM contract with the Blue Jays when he was a free agent a year ago. Like Correa, he also turned down a qualifying offer this week and will now be tied to draft pick forfeiture.

Mariners Rumors: Story, Chapman, Suzuki, Rotation

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The Mariners are known to be in the market for infield upgrades, with both Kris Bryant and Marcus Semien among their early targets. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times adds a few names to the pile, reporting that they’re also intrigued by the possibility of signing Trevor Story to play second base on a regular basis. Divish also indicates that the Mariners have high levels of interest in A’s third baseman Matt Chapman and several of Oakland’s available pitchers, including Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt.

Beyond that group, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told Dick Fain of SportsRadio 950 KJR this week that the Mariners would be interested in star outfielder Seiya Suzuki if and when he’s posted by the Hiroshima Carp of Nippon Professional Baseball (Twitter link). The Carp do plan to post Suzuki, but that process has not yet officially begun.

Dipoto has already made clear in the young offseason that his team will be more aggressive in free agency than in years past and given at least some indications as to the types of players he’ll target. He spoke earlier this month of a desire to sign “adaptable” free agents, naming both Semien and Javier Baez as players who’ve shown a willingness to move around the diamond. He’s also made it clear to J.P. Crawford that he’ll play shortstop in Seattle both next year and in the long term, which could well take the Mariners out of the running for any of the market’s top free agents who are set on remaining at that position.

[Related: Seattle Mariners’ Offseason Outlook]

While Story has been entrenched at shortstop in Colorado, he could certainly help his market if he shows a willingness to play another position. He’s typically been a plus defender at short, of course, but that only makes it likelier that he’d be a high-quality defender on the other side of the bag. Openness to playing elsewhere shouldn’t be a necessity, but given that Story had something of a down season by his standards, an open-minded outlook ought to broaden his appeal.

Unlike Story, there’d be no position change for Chapman in virtually any scenario. His elite defense at third base is perhaps the most appealing element of his overall game, and the Mariners have an obvious opening at the hot corner after declining Kyle Seager’s $20MM option. Chapman’s strikeout rate has soared and his batting average has dropped since a 2020 hip injury that required surgery, but he still draws plenty of walks and hits with power.

Chapman is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.5MM in 2022 and is controlled another two seasons. He could draw interest from around a third of the league, if not more, so the Mariners will hardly be alone in any potential pursuit. Attempting to expand talks to include one of the Athletics’ starters would only ramp up the price, and such a package may not be realistic if Dipoto’s comments about refusing to trade from the very top end of his prospect capital hold true (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic). “There’s no scenario where we will move the top prospects in our system, the guys who are prominent in our system,” Dipoto said at the GM Meetings just nine days ago.

Turning to the 27-year-old Suzuki, he’d be something of an odd fit — at least from a defensive standpoint. While Suzuki briefly played some third base early in his career, he’s settled in as a quality right fielder, winning four Gold Gloves at that position in Japan. The general consensus MLBTR received when speaking to MLB scouts and evaluators familiar with Suzuki was that he can be a well-rounded, everyday right fielder in the Majors but isn’t really an option in the infield, for defensive reasons.

The Mariners already have numerous outfield options, including Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, Taylor Trammell and yet-to-debut top prospect Julio Rodriguez. Not all are proven at the MLB level, of course, but winning the bidding on Suzuki would register as something of a surprise because of that depth — even with some DH at-bats available to help rotate four or five players through the outfield.

Perhaps the Mariners are more convinced Suzuki could move back to the infield on at least a part-time basis, or perhaps they simply believe his looming availability represents a unique opportunity to acquire an impact bat. (Suzuki, after all, has a .319/.435/.592 batting line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples dating back to 2018.) Regardless, Dipoto’s comment on the matter can’t be wholly ignored, even if the M’s seem an unlikely candidate to win the bidding when other interested parties have a more acute outfield need.

As for the reported interest in Oakland’s trio of available starting pitchers, it’s a good reminder that while there’s been a high level of focus on the Mariners’ quest to add at least one prominent bat to the lineup, they’ll also be in the market for one, if not two starting pitchers. The previously mentioned unwillingness to deal from the top of the system could make it tough to obtain a package of Chapman and a starting pitcher, but both Manaea and Bassitt would be one-year rentals, so acquiring either pitcher individually may not come with such a steep ask.

Whatever route they take, it’s increasingly evident that the Mariners are casting a very wide net as they look to end a two-decade playoff drought.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners closed the book on what turned out to be a roughly two-year rebuild with a 90-win season that saw them fight for a Wild Card berth up until the final series of the season. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto will add aggressively this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Marco Gonzales, LHP: $24MM through 2024 (contract includes $15MM club option for 2025, with no buyout)
  • Evan White, 1B: $21.4MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2026; contract also includes 2027-28 club options)
  • Ken Giles, RHP: $5.5MM through 2022 (includes $500K buyout of $9.5MM club option for 2023)
  • Chris Flexen, RHP: $2.75MM through 2022 (contract includes $4MM* club option for 2023)
  • Total 2022 commitment: $14.65MM
  • Total long-term commitments: $53.65MM

*=Flexen’s option price doubles to $8MM with 300 total innings from 2021-22; he pitched 179 2/3 innings in 2021.

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Declined $20MM option on 3B Kyle Seager in favor of $2MM buyout
  • Declined four-year, $66MM option on LHP Yusei Kikuchi; Kikuchi declined $13MM player option to become free agent

Free Agents

Over the past three years, the Mariners have traded James Paxton, Omar Narvaez, Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, Jean Segura, Edwin Encarnacion, Roenis Elias, Austin Nola, Austin Adams and Kendall Graveman with an eye toward the future. This year’s deadline trade sending Graveman to the division-rival Astros in exchange for five years of control over Abraham Toro could go down as the final forward-looking, “big picture” trade of a veteran for young talent.

After all, the Mariners were in playoff contention until the very end of the year. They fell just shy of their first postseason appearance in two decades — the longest drought in Major League Baseball — but the performance of the young core acquired by Dipoto & Co. sets the stage for an active offseason.

One change that appears certain lies at third base. Kyle Seager, the heart and soul of this Mariners club for many years, fought back tears when manager Scott Servais pulled him from the ninth inning of Seattle’s final game. In one of the more emotional moments of the year throughout all of MLB (video link), the home fans chanted Seager’s name as the dugout emptied and he hugged and bid farewell to the only team he’s known. Seager was given the third base bag and took a curtain call clutching it over his head as he thanked a raucous fan base.

It’s almost symbolic, in a bittersweet way for fans, that this turning of the page coincides with the face of the Mariners for the past several seasons likely leaving. Seager’s $20MM option was declined at season’s end, and while a reunion can’t be expressly ruled out, the scene at T-Mobile Park on Oct. 3 certainly had the feel of a goodbye.

There’s no “replacing” a player this revered and beloved in the clubhouse — shortstop J.P. Crawford could scarcely speak when praising Seager after that final game — but Seager’s likely departure leaves an opening in the lineup. The aforementioned Toro could step into an everyday role in that spot but can also play second. Similarly, Ty France has experience at third base but is a better defender at first or second base.

Given how little the Mariners have on the books in 2022, there’s really no free agent who should be off limits. Seattle has only $14.65MM in guaranteed 2022 contracts, and the arbitration class should only bump that number to around $40MM. This is the same ownership group that averaged an Opening Day payroll of $152.1MM from 2017-19.

Dipoto has already said this winter that he’ll prioritize “adaptable” free agents — those who are comfortable moving around if need be. He name-checked both Marcus Semien and Javier Baez when making those comments, instantly making each a potential fit. Kris Bryant is another such option — a possible everyday third baseman who could fill in as needed across the diamond or at any of the three outfield spots. Old friend Chris Taylor, meanwhile, has built a career on being “adaptable.”

What’s become clear is that there’s little interest in displacing Crawford at shortstop. The 26-year-old (27 in January) won a Gold Glove in 2020 and has cemented himself as a quality defender with an improving bat (.273/.338/.376 in 2021). Dipoto has already informed Crawford that the Mariners see him as the everyday shortstop. Perhaps Crawford would be amenable to sliding elsewhere if the Mariners got serious in a pursuit of Carlos Correa, but it seems far likelier they’ll make a run at players in the Bryant/Semien/Baez/Taylor tiers. Trevor Story is also in that “second” tier of free-agent shortstops and could feasibly improve his market by showing an openness to second base.

While Crawford, France and Toro each have 2022 spots locked down, Evan White’s future is less certain. The 25-year-old was the No. 17 pick in 2017 and inked a six-year, $24MM contract with three club options before making his MLB debut. So far, he’s struggled to a .165/.235/.308 slash in the Majors. It’s only 304 plate appearances, however, and White was surely hampered by a 2021 hip injury that required surgery. There’s still room for him to be a part of the future — he’s earning just $1.4MM in 2022 — but it’s tough to pencil him into the Opening Day lineup in a win-now season, especially with France’s breakout at first.

The Mariners don’t have a set DH and could use that spot as an opportunity to add even more offense — a Nelson Cruz reunion would be well-received by fans, for instance — but there’s no indication that’s a priority. In fact, keeping the DH spot relatively free may be of particular importance as the team hopes for better health from 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis.

A career .258/.343/.450 hitter (121 wRC+) through his first 464 MLB plate appearances, Lewis was limited to 36 games this year after undergoing surgery to repair a right meniscus tear. It’s not the first time he’s encountered right knee troubles; Lewis suffered a dual meniscus tear and ACL tear in that same knee in 2016. Setting aside some occasional DH reps for him could have obvious benefits.

Beyond Lewis, the M’s have two of the game’s most highly touted young outfielders in Jarred Kelenic and the yet-to-debut Julio Rodriguez. Kelenic struggled in his first taste of the Majors but improved with a .233/.304/.455 line following the trade deadline and a .248/.331/.524 showing over his final month. Rodriguez, meanwhile, posted a ludicrous .347/.441/.560 line between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. He’s considered a Top 5 prospect in all of baseball and could debut in early 2022.

Even after the trio of Lewis, Kelenic and Rodriguez, the Mariners are deep. Taylor Trammell had his own struggles during his 2021 debut, but he’s another now-former Top 100 prospect who posted solid numbers in Triple-A (.263/.362/.456) and only recently turned 24. Jake Fraley didn’t hit for average but was an OBP machine who walked in more than 17% of his plate appearances. And, of course, veteran right fielder Mitch Haniger returned from a harrowing sequence of fluke injuries to crush a career-high 39 home runs.

Haniger’s name has been bandied about the rumor circuit for years now, and there will surely be fans and pundits who speculate on his availability once again now that he’s a year from free agency. Howver, it’d be difficult to move him when he’s projected for a palatable $8.5MM salary and was a key middle-of-the-lineup presence in 2021. Seattle’s aim this winter is to deepen the lineup, and a trade of Haniger would run counter to that thinking. Dipoto is an open-minded baseball ops leader and could at least listen to offers, but a Haniger extension seems more prudent to explore than a possible trade.

Behind the plate, the M’s have a trio of options. Tom Murphy gives them a veteran who has had some big league success, while either Cal Raleigh or Luis Torrens could be a long-term solution. That depth could draw the interest of other clubs in need of catching help, with the Marlins standing out as a team who could entice the Mariners with some starting pitching.

The rotation will be a focus for Seattle this winter. Marco Gonzales shook off a terrible April, returning from a five-week IL stint to log a 3.60 ERA in his final 115 frames. Last winter’s low-cost dice roll on KBO breakout Chris Flexen was an overwhelming success, as Flexen turned in a 3.61 ERA over 179 2/3 innings. Top prospect Logan Gilbert had a rough patch in the middle of the season but was dominant down the stretch, pitching to a 2.70 ERA over his final six starts. With a 4.68 ERA overall and terrific strikeout and walk rates, he earned a spot in 2022.

After that trio, there’s not as much certainty. Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn were notable acquisitions during the rebuild but might be looking at bullpen roles in the future, given their struggles and a slate of impressive prospects yet to come. First-rounders George Kirby and Emerson Hancock are still on the rise, and 2019 second-rounder Brandon Williamson has only seen his stock soar since the draft. Matt Brash dominated in the minors and has likely already made the Padres regret parting with him in a trade to acquire Taylor Williams.

Even with all those prospects nearing the big leagues, the Mariners’ win-now mantra will push them to bring in some established veterans. With so much payroll space, there’s no reason to think the Mariners couldn’t ink one of the top pitchers on the market even after signing a free-agent bat. However, the safer bet may be to add some solid mid-rotation arms as opposed to the type of $100MM+ deals that could be commanded by Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman.

The market has plenty of options, including Jon Gray, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Steven Matz. If the Mariners are open to some risk, Carlos Rodon was one of the game’s best starters when healthy this season but ended the year with some concerning shoulder troubles. A team in Seattle’s spot could view Rodon’s late injury flags as a means of buying a possible No. 1 starter at a discount. The downside is obvious with a pitcher who managed just 36 innings in the final 10 weeks of the season and saw a rapid drop in his fastball velocity, but with so many prospects providing depth, perhaps the Mariners can take that chance.

This is the first time under Dipoto that the Mariners are likely to be more active in free agency than in trades, but there’s probably a limit to how much they’ll spend on the open market. With the need for a big bat and at least one — if not two — rotation spots open, the Mariners will surely explore that route. By now, it’s well known that names like Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Merrill Kelly and others could be available on the trade market.

That said, fans of other clubs dreaming up scenarios to acquire the likes of Rodriguez, Noelvi Marte, Kirby, Hancock and other Mariners top prospects may want to pump the brakes. Dipoto said at the GM Meetings last week that there’s “no scenario” where he’ll move the very top prospects in his organization (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic). Seattle has Baseball America’s top-ranked farm system though, so there’s plenty of value even in the middle tiers that could be used in trades. It’s also plausible that a controllable player without a clear path to playing time (e.g. Trammell, Fraley) could be part of a package for immediate help — be it in the lineup, the rotation or the bullpen.

Of course, the Mariners’ need for relief pitching is less acute, especially if Sheffield and Dunn join this mix. Breakout righty Paul Sewald went from a struggling Mets depth piece to a powerhouse closing option who fanned nearly 40% of his 2021 opponents. The M’s struck gold on a minor league deal for Drew Steckenrider and picked up a big-time righty from the Rays at the deadline in Diego Castillo. Former All-Star Ken Giles will join that trio in 2022 when he returns from Tommy John surgery. Casey Sadler won’t repeat his ridiculous 0.67 ERA but has locked a spot down. Seattle also received promising showings from Erik Swanson and Yohan Ramirez, and they’ll have a full season of Andres Munoz and his triple-digit heater now that he’s back from Tommy John surgery.

If there’s one area the Mariners are lacking, it’s a lefty. A pursuit of Andrew Chafin or Aaron Loup seems sensible, and this is another area where a trade might make sense. The M’s could also look at Sheffield here and/or give Anthony Misiewicz a bigger look. Misiewicz’s 4.61 ERA isn’t eye-catching, but he had better marks from metrics like FIP and SIERA.

However the Mariners choose to attack the offseason, it’s unlikely to look like any we’ve previously seen since Dipoto took the reins in Seattle. He’s previously preferred to operate primarily on the trade market, but the Mariners have gotten to that sweet spot where their squeaky clean payroll outlook overlaps with an elite farm that is teeming with MLB-ready talent. The nexus of those two enviable characteristics should open the door for considerable spending this winter and perhaps another big swing on the trade front. The Mariners are veritable locks to add at least one impact bat (likely in the infield) and figure to be active in bolstering the rotation.

With the Athletics going into an obvious rebuild, the Rangers still working to emerge from their own building phase and the Astros perhaps bidding farewell to free agent Carlos Correa, the Mariners’ time is now. They know it, and so does the rest of the industry. It’s going to be a fun offseason for Seattle fans.

Mariners Announce 2022 Coaching Staff

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The Mariners on Monday announced a series of departures and promotions as they set their coaching staff for the 2022 season. Manager Scott Servais was already known to be returning after agreeing to a multi-year extension on Sept. 1, but there will be some changes on his staff.

Tony Arnerich, who has spent the past two seasons as the team’s minor league field coordinator and catching coordinator, will be one of two co-hitting coaches on next year’s club. Also being promoted to the role of hitting coach and to the broader title of director of hitting strategy is Jarret DeHart, who was an assistant hitting coach in each of the past two seasons.

Seattle is also adding longtime director of player development Andy McKay to the Major League coaching staff, where he’ll be in uniform and serve as a Major League coach and senior director of baseball development. It’ll be his first year on the coaching staff but his seventh in the organization.

A more recognizable name for many fans is likely Kristopher Negron, who retired as a player just two years ago but will now be the Mariners’ first base coach. Negron worked as an assistant to McKay in 2020, his first year with the team, and won Triple-A Manager of the Year honors this past season in guiding the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate to a league championship.

Beyond this quartet, the Mariners will also welcome back pitching coach Pete Woodworth, third base coach Manny Acta, bullpen coach Trent Blank, infield coach Perry Hill and Major League field coordinator Carson Vitale.

Notably absent from the list of returnees are now-former hitting coach Tim Laker and now-former bench coach Jared Sandberg. Laker, the Mariners announced, declined an offer to return to the team in 2022, which prompted the promotions for DeHart and Arnerich. Sandberg, meanwhile, was not asked back.

Sandberg’s departure from the coaching staff leaves the Mariners without a bench coach, but it doesn’t appear that they’ll make a hire in that regard. The Mariners announced today’s staff as their finalized staff for the 2022 season and, asked specifically by MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer about the lack of a bench coach (Twitter link), president of baseball operations confirmed that the collection of coaches announced today will “provide [Servais] with a variety of voices he trusts.”

“Our mantra here is ’Doesn’t Matter, Get Better’ and our coaches embodied that in 2021,” Servais said in a statement within today’s press release. “Each and every day they assisted in helping our players improve and that hard work showed up on the field. Between the returning staff and the coaches we’ve been able to add from our player development group, every person on this staff has had a hand in helping our players succeed in their careers, and I’m looking forward to seeing more of that success in 2022.”

Several High-End Free Agents Could Sign Before CBA Expires

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The 2021-22 offseason is unlike any we’ve seen in recent history, with players and teams somewhat flying blind as the expiration of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement looms at 11:59pm ET on Dec. 1. Because of the widely expected lockout and uncertainty as to what changes will be made to key economic facets of Major League Baseball — the luxury tax, the arbitration system, the potential implementation of a salary floor — there’s been fairly prevalent speculation that the majority of major free-agent dealings would only occur after a lockout has been resolved.

That’s not necessarily the case, ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes in his takeaway column from this week’s GM Meetings in California. To the contrary, there’s a sense that top free agents Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and a few prominent starting pitchers could come off the board while the current CBA is still in play. Similarly, some in the industry expect that at least some of the offseason’s most aggressive teams (e.g. Rangers, Tigers, Mariners, Blue Jays) could be highly active in the days and hours leading up to the current agreement’s expiration, per Passan.

To some extent, it’s only logical to see the markets for certain top-of-the-scale free agents crystallize more quickly than others. Seager is one of the top two names on the market, while Semien is coming off the best season of any of the “second tier” of shortstops — those expected to sign north of $100MM but well beneath the likely $300MM+ price range of Seager and Carlos Correa.

Demand figures to be robust for both Seager and Semien. And, with likely interest from teams that won’t have immediate luxury-tax concerns regardless of who they sign, thanks to fairly wide-open payroll outlays, not every interested team will be overly concerned with waiting to see how the luxury tax unfolds. A lack of luxury-tax concern among Texas, Detroit, Seattle and Toronto surely dovetails with expectations that they could act more quickly than, say, the Yankees or Dodgers — both of whom will be keenly interested in the particulars of a restructured competitive balance tax.

Both Seager and Semien are of interest to the Yankees, Passan reemphasizes, though that much is well known by this point. Yankees GM Brian Cashman effectively kicked off the team’s offseason by announcing his desire to improve at shortstop, and it’d frankly be more surprising to learn that the Yanks were “out” on any one of the top free-agent shortstops than to hear they’re still in the mix.

There’s certainly no guarantee that either Seager or Semien will sign prior to Dec. 1, but it’s also in many ways sensible for both teams and players to want to strike early. Assuming there is indeed a lockout, MLB free agency would resume at a rather frenzied pace. There’d be obvious benefit to teams having cost certainty and avoiding some of that chaos by checking a big-ticket item off the list early in the process. From the players’ vantage point, there has to be concern about getting lost in the shuffle — particularly among second- or third-tier names. Furthermore, as is the case every winter, free agents tend to prefer the certainty of knowing where they (and their families) will be for the foreseeable future.

Even from an agency standpoint, early deals make some sense, if the demand is sufficient enough to drum up a palatable offer. For instance, the Boras Corporation represents both Seager and Semien, but they’ll also be negotiating deals for Max Scherzer, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon, Yusei Kikuchi and James Paxton, among others. It’s a lot to juggle in what would be a condensed free-agent period, post-lockout. It’s easy to see the appeal of an early contract or two for any agency with a lengthy client list this winter.

To this point, there’s been little in the way of actual activity, save for a trio of  one-year deals for Andrew Heaney (Dodgers), T.J. McFarland (Cardinals) and Joely Rodriguez (Yankees). Teams and agencies acting with a bit of increased urgency, however, carries the potential for a perhaps brief flurry of deals in the next three weeks, even if the prevailing wisdom is that the majority of the offseason’s heavy lifting will come in the wake of, and not in advance of, a lockout and subsequent transaction freeze.

Brewers Hire Ozzie Timmons, Connor Dawson As Hitting Coaches

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The Brewers announced this afternoon that they’ve hired Ozzie Timmons and Connor Dawson as co-hitting coaches. They’re also planning to hire an assistant hitting coach to work underneath Timmons and Dawson, tweets Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. They’ll replace Andy Haines, whose contract was not renewed last month.

Timmons has spent the past four seasons on the Rays’ coaching staff. He’d split his time between base coaching and serving as Tampa Bay’s assistant hitting coach before getting a bump to full-time assistant hitting coach last month. Just a few weeks later, he’ll land a more significant role in Milwaukee. An outfielder in his playing days, the 51-year-old Timmons appeared in parts of five big league seasons from 1995-2000.

Dawson comes over from the Mariners, where he’d been Seattle’s minor league hitting coordinator. The 28-year-old had previously spent a couple seasons coaching in the M’s system and now gets his first job on a big league staff.

Yankees Interested In Starling Marte, Bryan Reynolds

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The Yankees are known to be looking for center field help, and the club is considering options at the top of the free agent and trade markets.  MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Yankees and Mariners are among the teams interested in acquiring Bryan Reynolds from the Pirates, while on the free agent front, NJ.com’s Brendan Kuty reports that “Starling Marte is, at the very least, on the Yankees’ radar.”

This isn’t the first time that the Bronx Bombers have looked into Marte, as the Yankees had some talks with the Marlins about a potential swap back in July.  Marte ended up being dealt to the A’s, while the Yankees instead augmented their outfield by acquiring Joey Gallo from the Rangers.  As for Reynolds, New York joins the long list of teams who have reportedly asked about Pittsburgh’s All-Star center fielder in the last six months alone — the Astros, Guardians, Marlins, Brewers, and Braves have all been linked to Reynolds, and Seattle tried to deal for Reynolds prior to the trade deadline.

Aaron Hicks, of course, is ostensibly already the Yankees’ starting center fielder, so landing a proven everyday star like Marte or Reynolds would amount to a major sea change in the team’s outfield depth chart.  However, Hicks has battled multiple injuries in recent years, including a wrist surgery in May that ended his 2021 season after 32 games.  Hicks is expected to return to baseball activities in December and be ready for Spring Training, yet as GM Brian Cashman told reporters yesterday, “We just want to make sure we put the best team out there, so no guarantees right now for anybody….We just don’t have a pure center fielder at this point with the unknown of Aaron Hicks not playing for a while.”

If Hicks is healthy and Marte, Reynolds, or another notable starting outfielder was added, New York would suddenly be awash in outfield options.  Aaron Judge obviously has right field locked down, Giancarlo Stanton would play every day as either the DH or in the corners, and the likes of Gallo, Miguel Andujar, Clint Frazier, and Estevan Florial are also on hand.

In the event of a Reynolds trade, it isn’t out of the question that any of those latter three names could be part of the very big trade package the Pirates would demand in any Reynolds deal.  None would be headliners in that trade package, however, as Andujar, Frazier, and Florial have all seen their star prospect status dim over the last couple of years.  Gallo or Hicks probably wouldn’t have much trade appeal for the rebuilding Pirates, though either veteran could potentially be flipped in another deal if the Yankees were looking to create room, even if New York would likely have to eat a good portion of the $41MM left on Hicks’ contract.

Should the Yankees balk at Pittsburgh’s asking price for Reynolds, signing Marte wouldn’t come with any prospect cost, even if he might require something in the neighborhood of a four-year, $80MM contract.  This type of spending shouldn’t necessarily be beyond a Bombers team that ducked under the luxury tax line last season, even if the Yankees additionally gave out some big dollars to address their needs at shortstop, first base, or perhaps in the rotation.

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