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Spencer Turnbull

Blue Jays Release Spencer Turnbull

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The Blue Jays released Spencer Turnbull, according to the MLB.com transaction log. Assuming he clears release waivers, he’ll return to free agency. Toronto had designated the veteran righty for assignment on Wednesday.

Turnbull has over five years of MLB service time and had the right to refuse an outright assignment while retaining his prorated (approximate) $1.27MM salary. The Jays didn’t get much from that modest investment. They were shuttling through fifth starters after losing Max Scherzer to the injured list when they signed Turnbull in early May. He had gone unsigned all winter and wasn’t ready for MLB action, so he spent a little over a month on optional assignment building into game shape in the minors.

By the time Turnbull was ready to be called up, Eric Lauer had impressed the club in a swing role. Lauer subsequently took hold of the fifth starter job and remains in the rotation even after Scherzer’s activation, as Bowden Francis landed on the injured list. Turnbull only made three appearances — two in relief and one abbreviated start — and gave up five runs in 6 1/3 innings. He surrendered 12 hits with four walks and strikeouts apiece.

Despite the shorter stints, Turnbull’s fastball speed was down a tick. He averaged roughly 91 MPH after sitting at 92 as a swingman for the Phillies last season. He pitched well for Philadelphia, working to a 2.65 ERA while striking out 26% of batters faced in 54 1/3 innings. His 2024 season ended when he sustained a lat strain in late June.

Blue Jays Designate Spencer Turnbull For Assignment

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The Blue Jays announced that they have reinstated right-hander Max Scherzer from the 60-day injured list. Fellow righty Spencer Turnbull has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet was among those to pass it along.

Turnbull, 32, was a notable free agent this offseason. He had a good season with the Phillies last year on a rate basis, posting a 2.65 earned run average over 54 1/3 innings in a swing role. His 26.1% strikeout rate and 47.5% ground ball rate were a few ticks above average with a 9% walk rate that was right around par. His workload was limited both by the Phils shuttling him between the rotation and bullpen, as well as a lat strain that kept him on the IL for most of the second half.

Despite the solid numbers, he lingered unsigned into the season. The Blue Jays had lost Scherzer to the IL after just one start and made various attempts to replace him in the rotation, giving chances to guys like Easton Lucas, José Ureña, Paxton Schultz and Eric Lauer.

They added Turnbull into the mix by signing him in early May, technically on a $1,265,306 salary but it was prorated to an even $1MM since some of the season was already in the books. Since he missed all of spring training, he agreed to be optioned to the minors to build up, though with a 35-day limit before he needed to be called up.

On that optional assignment, he seemed to struggle to get his velocity up. He averaged less than 90 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball in his Triple-A outings, despite being at 92 mph last year and in the 93-94 mph range in his previous big league seasons. Regardless, with their 35-day window closing, the Jays called him up in mid-June.

His first two outings were in relief and were reasonable enough. He started with two shutout frames against the Cardinals on June 11th, then allowed one run over 2 1/3 innings against the Phillies on the 15th, averaging around 91 mph in those outings. The Jays gave him a start against the White Sox on Friday, which did not go well. His four-seamer averaged 90.3 mph as he allowed four earned runs in two innings. He now sports a 7.11 ERA in his small sample of work this year, with his strikeout and walk rates matching at 12.1%, a subpar number in both cases.

While Turnbull has struggled to get into a good groove, other pitchers have outperformed him. Lauer, signed to a minor league deal in the offseason, has a 2.21 ERA in 40 2/3 innings for the Jays this year. There’s certainly some luck in there but his 25.5% strikeout rate is strong and his 8.7% walk rate around average. The Jays could have kicked Turnbull into a long relief role but Schultz has a 3.80 ERA, 27.7% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 41.7% ground ball rate. He also has options, meaning the Jays have some freedom to shuttle him to Triple-A when they want a fresh arm.

With Scherzer’s return, he will join Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt in the rotation. Bowden Francis landed on the IL about a week ago due to a shoulder impingement but Lauer has seemingly taken over that spot.

Put it all together and Turnbull heads into DFA limbo, which can last as long as a week. The waiver process takes 48 hours, meaning the Jays can take as long as five days to explore trade interest. Given his form so far this year and his salary, teams might wait for him to hit the open market. He has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency while keeping his salary in tact. It’s possible the Jays skip the formality and simply release him.

If that comes to pass, teams would be able to sign him and only pay him the prorated league minimum salary for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from Toronto’s commitment. That could be an attractive flier for some clubs, given Turnbull’s past work. As mentioned, he had decent results as recently as last year. From 2019 to 2021 with the Tigers, he posted a 4.13 ERA in 255 innings with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 50.3% ground ball rate. He missed 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery and struggled in 2023 but bounced back with the Phils last year. His 2025 hasn’t been amazing so far but it’s also followed an unusual trajectory.

Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro, Imagn Images

Blue Jays Notes: Rotation, Yesavage, Outfield

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The Blue Jays could get Max Scherzer back as soon as next week, writes Keegan Matheson of MLB.com. The future Hall of Famer tossed 74 pitches and punched out eight hitters — including a rehabbing Wilyer Abreu — in a rehab start against the Red Sox’ Triple-A affiliate this week. The Jays will need to see how Scherzer’s ailing thumb responds, but he’s built up and feels his stuff is where it needs to be. If Saturday’s scheduled bullpen session between starts goes well, Scherzer could return to the Jays next Tuesday.

A healthy Scherzer would be a welcome boon at an opportune time. Toronto recently lost Bowden Francis to the injured list. Kevin Gausman has allowed 17 runs over his past 20 innings. Chris Bassitt has allowed at least three runs in four of his past five starts, pitching to a 5.59 ERA in that span.

Scherzer, 40, lasted only three innings in his Jays debut early this season and pitched only 43 1/3 innings with Texas in 2024. There are genuine concerns about his health, both in terms of his thumb being able to hold up over the course of a full big league start and in terms of how it’ll recover between outings when he’s taking the ball every fifth day. At least with regard to his two rehab starts — 56 pitches and 74 pitches — he’s been holding up well enough during those games themselves. It might be a bit before the Jays let him unleash 100 pitches, but even if his pitch count is closely monitored, Scherzer should stabilize a rotation that’s cycled through a hodgepodge of fifth starter options this year.

The occupant of that fifth and final spot in the rotation, even with Scherzer back in the fold, is up in the air. Lefty Eric Lauer, who signed a minor league deal over the winter, has been excellent pitching in a variety of roles. Matheson notes that Lauer is angling for that fifth spot, quoting the lefty as follows: “I’m a starter and I want to be a starter. The fifth spot is kind of up in the air. I go out there and try to take that fifth spot every time.”

Lauer has indeed made a strong case. He’s pitched in 10 games for Toronto, four of them starts, and picked up 35 1/3 innings with a 2.29 earned run average. He’s fanned 26.1% of his opponents against an 8% walk rate. His ability to sustain that strikeout rate is a bit questionable, given below-average swinging-strike and chase rates of 9.8% and 24.6%, respectively, but this is far and away Lauer’s best work since his 2021-22 peak with the Brewers.

That said, another low-cost pickup has made a similarly strong case. Right-hander Spencer Turnbull, signed to a deal after the season was underway, has pitched 4 1/3 innings and held opponents to one run. He’s allowed seven hits, walked two and only fanned a pair, but Turnbull can add to his case when he starts tonight’s game against the White Sox.

Mitch Bannon of The Athletic adds that manager John Schneider called the fifth starter’s spot a “healthy competition” between Lauer and Turnbull. For now, both are in the picture. If there are any setbacks with Scherzer, perhaps that’ll remain the case. But if Scherzer returns next week, the Jays will have more healthy rotation arms than spots available — hardly a bad thing. If they get to that enviable spot, the Blue Jays could consider a variety of options. Turnbull could serve as a piggyback option behind either Lauer or Scherzer. They could go with a six-man rotation. They could alternate Turnbull/Lauer in that fifth spot depending on their opponent.

Further down the road, Toronto is hopeful that 2024 first-rounder Trey Yesavage can push to join the starting staff. That’s not likely in 2025, as he was only just promoted to Double-A and has already thrown nearly two-thirds as many innings this year as he did in his junior season at East Carolina University. However, Bannon writes in a separate piece that the hard-throwing Yesavage could emerge as a candidate to join the major league club down the stretch if the Jays are in contention — perhaps in the bullpen.

Schneider tells Bannon that Yesavage “has definitely opened some eyes here” and that “the stuff is real.” Blue Jays scout Coulson Barbiche adds that even when he was watching Yesavage pitch in college, he seemed “darn near ready-made” for the major leagues.

The 6’4″, 225-pound Yesavage has breezed through minor league lineups in his first full pro season, logging a 2.67 ERA with a mammoth 42.5% strikeout rate and an almost comical 21.1% swinging-strike rate. His 11.5% walk rate needs to come down, but Yesavage is already at his third minor league level of the season. The Jays may not have been all that aggressive with his original assignment to Low-A, but they’re promoting him aggressively now; Yesavage spent only four starts in High-A before being bumped to Double-A, where he’s now made two starts.

Good questions on the pitching side of the roster are circulating at the moment, but there’s also some uncertainty with the team’s mix of position players — specifically in the outfield. The Jays have Daulton Varsho and Anthony Santander on the injured list at the moment, but there’s still a surplus of outfield talent on the roster — particularly with Nathan Lukes returning from the concussion list today.

Shi Davidi of Sportsnet looks at what could be a looming logjam. Varsho is one of the game’s premier defenders and will man center field once healthy. Santander and George Springer will share one corner spot and the DH spot. Addison Barger is in the midst of a breakout and has logged plenty of time in right field, but he can play third base regularly once the rest of the group is healthy. Prospects Alan Roden and Jonatan Clase are also in the mix, as are Lukes, Will Robertson, Myles Straw and Davis Schneider.

It’s highly doubtful the Jays would move one of the more established veterans or Barger, given how well he’s hitting, but Davidi wonders whether the Blue Jays might be deep enough in outfielders to deal from that hefty supply as they look to improve for the stretch run.

Blue Jays Recall Spencer Turnbull For Season Debut

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The Blue Jays announced this afternoon that they’ve recalled right-hander Spencer Turnbull from Triple-A Buffalo. In a corresponding move, right-hander Paxton Schultz was optioned to Triple-A.

Turnbull, 32, signed with Toronto on a one-year deal last month. The right-hander was added to the 40-man roster at the time of the signing but agreed to be optioned to the minor leagues at the time of his signing so he could build up his arm after missing all of Spring Training due to being unsigned. He made his fifth rehab appearance on Friday, when he threw 80 pitches across 4 2/3 innings of five-run ball against the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate. Despite those shaky results, it represented Turnbull’s longest appearance both in terms of pitch count and batters faced.

That may have been close enough to a full big league start that the Jays were comfortable adding him back to the roster, but it’s worth noting that Turnbull’s optional assignment could only last a maximum of 35 days. That window would have expired tomorrow, meaning that Turnbull’s addition to the roster was imminent unless he suffered an injury or agreed to a longer stay in the minors. Despite his shaky rehab outings, the addition of Turnbull into the fold should hopefully provide a stabilizing force for a Jays pitching staff in serious need of reinforcements.

The righty had an up-and-down career over five years with the Tigers where he at times flashed the ability to be a quality mid-rotation arm but was too often held back by injuries. He enjoyed his healthiest season in years with the Phillies last year, and while he did ultimately miss the second half of the season with a lat strain he made 17 appearances (including seven starts) where he pitched to an impressive 2.65 ERA with a 3.85 FIP and 3.67 SIERA aross 54 1/3 innings of work. He struck out a career-high 26.1% of opponents while walking a fairly manageable 9.0%, and despite the season-ending injury re-entered free agency with a fairly strong argument for a solid contract.

While he ultimately lingered on the open market long enough to get snapped up by the Blue Jays on what was effectively a $1MM guarantee, the talent Turnbull flashed last year would go a long way to shoring up a beleaguered pitching staff in Toronto. They’ve been operating with a four-man rotation of late, and it seems fairly likely that Turnbull will now join that mix at least until an injured pitcher like Max Scherzer or Alek Manoah is ready to step back into a rotation role with the team. With no starter in line for their game against the Cardinals on June 11, it would be no surprise if the right-hander ends up taking the ball that day.

With that being said, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet suggested the possibility that Turnbull could either begin his time with the Jays in the bullpen or perhaps piggyback with southpaw Eric Lauer, who has been pitching in a long relief role for Toronto this season. Turnbull’s no stranger to a swing role after his work in Philadelphia last year; he started his first six appearances with the Phillies before moving to the bullpen last May and being utilized in a flexible role that saw him make both single-inning relief appearances lasting less than 20 pitchers and multi-inning appearances that pushed 60 pitches. Whether the Blue Jays ultimately decide to start Turnbull or use him in the bullpen at first, that flexibility is sure to come in handy during his time with the club.

Jays Notes: Kikuchi, Bloss, Turnbull

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The Blue Jays kicked off a series against the Angels this week, providing an opportunity for Toronto reporters to catch up with new Halos starter Yusei Kikuchi. The veteran left-hander tells Hazel Mae and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet that the Jays did not make him a free agent offer before he signed his three-year contract with the Angels.

Toronto traded Kikuchi to the Astros last summer. It was one of the bigger deadline rental deals, as the Astros parted with three upper level players (Jake Bloss, Will Wagner and Joey Loperfido) for a couple months of Kikuchi’s services. He was excellent down the stretch, working to a 2.70 ERA while averaging six innings per start across 10 appearances.

Kikuchi added that he wasn’t surprised that the Jays didn’t look to bring him back in free agency, noting that Bowden Francis did strong work after replacing him in the rotation. Francis was Toronto’s best pitcher in the second half, pitching to a 1.80 ERA while striking out nearly a quarter of opposing hitters. That certainly earned him a spot in the Opening Day rotation alongside Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt. The Jays still needed a fifth starter but elected to focus most of their offseason resources on rebuilding the lineup. Their only significant rotation move was a short-term investment, as they added Max Scherzer for $15.5MM on one year.

Scherzer’s recurring thumb injury sent him to the injured list after his first start in a Toronto uniform. That tested the Jays’ relatively thin rotation. Bloss, who made three big league starts with Houston before the trade, is one of the top depth arms on the 40-man roster. He has struggled to a 6.46 ERA over six appearances with Triple-A Buffalo, though, and he’s now facing an alarming health situation.

The Jays sent the 23-year-old for imaging on his elbow after his most recent appearance, relays Mitch Bannon of The Athletic. The team hasn’t provided any other specifics, but they’re skipping at least one start. Bloss last pitched on Saturday, allowing four runs on five hits and three walks across 3 1/3 innings.

Bloss’ injury comes days after the Jays signed both Spencer Turnbull and José Ureña to add some amount of veteran stability until Scherzer returns. Ureña, who’d begun the season in Triple-A with the Mets, jumped right into the fifth rotation spot. He tossed 74 pitches and worked 4 1/3 frames of two-run ball in his team debut tonight. Turnbull is much further off, as he spent the entire offseason unsigned before signing a prorated deal in the $1.27MM range. He’s on the 40-man roster but agreed to be optioned to the team’s Florida complex to get into game shape.

Manager John Schneider said this evening that Turnbull had kept his arm loose by throwing to collegiate hitters in recent weeks (via Mae). The skipper added that the optional stint can last up to 35 days before the Jays need to recall Turnbull onto the big league roster.

Blue Jays Sign Spencer Turnbull

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Today: The Blue Jays officially announced Turnbull’s one-year major league contract on Monday and optioned the veteran pitcher to the Florida Complex League to allow him time to build up his arm. To make room for Turnbull and fellow free agent signing José Ureña on the 40-man roster, the Blue Jays transferred Max Scherzer and Erik Swanson to the 60-day injured list. This pushes back Scherzer’s and Swanson’s return timelines to late May at the earliest.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post provides the financials of the Turnbull deal. It’s technically a salary of $1,265,306 but prorated to an even $1MM due some of the season having already transpired. The righty can also unlock bonuses worth $500K based on innings pitched, $100K each at 50, 60, 70, 80 and 90. He will also get $125K for spending 60 days on the active roster, $250K for 80 and 100 days, and $375K for 120 days.

May 3: The Blue Jays and Spencer Turnbull have agreed to a major league contract, as reported by Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi. The right-hander went unsigned over the offseason after spending the 2024 campaign with the Phillies. His deal is pending a physical. Further details, including financial terms, have not yet been revealed.

Turnbull, 32, got off to a terrific start last season after signing a one-year, $2MM contract with Philadelphia. Through six April starts filling in for an injured Taijuan Walker, he pitched to a 1.67 ERA with 36 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings of work. While no one would have expected Turnbull to maintain a sub-2.00 ERA, all of his underlying numbers were promising, including a 49.4% groundball rate, a 20.5% K-BB%, and a 3.37 SIERA. Nonetheless, in May, he moved into the bullpen, where he didn’t look quite as sharp. He gave up nine runs in 19 innings over his next 10 appearances. His strikeout and groundball rates declined, and his walk rate rose. His ERA jumped to 4.26, while his SIERA climbed to 3.80. Of course, those were still perfectly respectable numbers for a long reliever, and indeed, Turnbull pitched well enough to be reinstated in the starting rotation when Ranger Suárez suffered an injury. Unfortunately, his next stint as a starter would be short-lived. Turnbull exited early from his first start back in the Phillies’ rotation, never to return. He went on the injured list with a lat strain that ultimately ended his season.

All told, Turnbull finished the 2024 season with a 2.65 ERA and a 3.67 SIERA in 54 1/3 innings. That performance, along with his overall solid career numbers when healthy (4.28 ERA, 3.81 FIP in 67 career starts), was enough to earn him the final spot on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list this past offseason. Be that as it may, his checkered injury history, and therefore his limited MLB track record, were evidently enough to scare off teams from pursuing him. He was not credibly linked to any suitors this winter.

Yet, as pitcher injuries began to pile up almost immediately, teams that weren’t interested in Turnbull over the offseason may have changed their minds. The right-hander reportedly threw for teams in mid-March, according to Nicholson-Smith, but no deal materialized at that time. Several weeks later, he has finally landed a contract. While he may have to consent to an optional assignment so he can ramp up in the minor leagues, this is not a minor league pact. Barring another serious injury, he will pitch in the majors in 2025.

Just yesterday, Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins told reporters (including Mitch Bannon of The Athletic) that the team had “a couple of things in the works” to shore up the team’s rotation depth “via free agency.” It’s easy to understand why Toronto was seeking outside help. Ever since Max Scherzer suffered a thumb injury during his first start of the season, the Blue Jays have struggled to fill the fifth spot in their rotation. Easton Lucas was surprisingly effective in his first two MLB starts before falling apart in his third and fourth. He has since been optioned back to Triple-A. Paxton Schultz seemed like a possible rotation option after his terrific big league debut; he threw 4 1/3 scoreless innings of relief with eight strikeouts. Yet, he wasn’t nearly as effective in his next relief outing. He, too, has since been sent down to Triple-A Buffalo.

Meanwhile, Yariel Rodríguez, who has moved into a bullpen role this season, gave up two runs in a mediocre inning of work in his first outing as an opener on Tuesday. Eric Lauer got the job done in his Blue Jays debut, tossing four innings to follow Rodríguez while giving up two earned runs on three hits. Still, considering that Lauer has not thrown more than 50 MLB innings in a season since 2022, it’s not hard to see why the Blue Jays wouldn’t want to rely on him too heavily. José Ureña, with whom the Blue Jays also agreed to a major league deal this morning, fills a similar niche to Turnbull as a veteran right-handed pitcher with experience both starting and relieving. Yet, he doesn’t offer nearly the same upside. Lastly, top prospect Jake Bloss has looked better in his last two starts, but his overall Triple-A numbers are poor (6.42 ERA and 5.53 FIP in 13 starts since joining the Blue Jays organization), and it wouldn’t be in anyone’s best interest to rush him to the majors simply because Toronto is out of other options.

Thus, Turnbull will provide the Blue Jays some much-needed starting pitching depth. If and when Scherzer makes his return to the rotation, Turnbull could also slide into a long-man role in the bullpen. Once his deal is official, the Jays will presumably offer more details about his eventual role and how long it will be until he’s ready to take the mound in the majors.

Spencer Turnbull Throws For Teams

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Free agent righty Spencer Turnbull has thrown for teams and continues to seek a big league opportunity, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Turnbull, who placed #50 on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list last offseason, surprisingly remains unsigned into the second week of the regular season.

The 32-year-old is coming off a solid, albeit injury-shortened, season with Philadelphia. The Phillies signed him to a $2MM free agent deal in February 2024. Turnbull took six turns through the rotation before kicking into multi-inning relief. He made 10 appearances out of the bullpen and one final start. Turnbull put up a 2.65 ERA with a quality 26.1% strikeout rate and a 47.5% ground-ball percentage through 54 1/3 innings.

All that work came within the season’s first three months. A lat strain sent him to the injured list in late June. While he made one rehab appearance late in September, he was not able to get back to the majors before the end of the season. It clearly wasn’t how Turnbull hoped to finish his walk year, though it seemed his early-season numbers would make him an interesting target for teams seeking affordable rotation help.

Turnbull has generally been a productive pitcher on a rate basis but hasn’t stayed healthy consistently. He tossed 148 1/3 innings across 30 starts for the Tigers back in 2019. He hasn’t reached 60 MLB frames in a season since then. Turnbull took 11 turns through the rotation during the shortened 2020 season, but his elbow blew out early in ’21. He required Tommy John surgery that July and missed the entire 2022 campaign.

He only made seven major league starts during his final season in Detroit. He struggled to a 7.26 ERA and missed time with neck soreness and a toenail avulsion. The relationship between Turnbull and the organization seemingly soured amidst those injuries and the team’s attempt to option him to the minors. They non-tendered him at year’s end, leading to his brief but effective stint with the Phils.

Last offseason’s market clearly didn’t materialize to Turnbull’s liking. Even if he’s able to secure a major league contract, he’d probably need to agree to an optional assignment so he can build up over multiple minor league appearances.

Poll: Where Will Spencer Turnbull Sign?

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Earlier this week, Nick Deeds gave MLBTR readers a chance to voice their opinions about where Kyle Gibson, the top unsigned starting pitcher from MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, and David Robertson, the top unsigned reliever, would end up. That leaves one more unsigned player from our Top 50 list left to cover: 32-year-old right-hander Spencer Turnbull.

Turnbull became a free agent for the first time last offseason. He was coming off a poor final season with the Tigers. After missing all of 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, he pitched to a 7.26 ERA and 5.24 SIERA over seven starts in April and May before suffering a neck injury. Upon his return from the IL in August, Detroit optioned him to Triple-A – even though he was nursing an injured foot at the time. The team would retroactively reverse the option in November (after non-tendering him the week prior), thereby granting Turnbull a full year of service time. Nonetheless, that didn’t change the fact that he spent the final weeks of the 2023 season in the minors, pitching to a 6.23 ERA and 4.25 FIP in eight starts.

Despite such an unceremonious ending to his Tigers tenure, Turnbull landed a $2MM guarantee from the Phillies last February, only $400K lower than his projected arbitration salary. It quickly seemed as if Philadelphia had struck gold, as the righty looked terrific out of the gate. Initially expected to start the season in the bullpen, Turnbull was thrust into the rotation when Taijuan Walker suffered an injury toward the end of spring training. Through six turns in the Phillies rotation during April, Turnbull tossed 32 1/3 frames with a 1.67 ERA and 3.37 SIERA. He struck out 28.3% of the batters he faced while inducing ground balls at a 49.4% rate.

Turnbull didn’t look quite as sharp after transitioning to a bullpen role in May, putting up a 4.26 ERA and 3.80 SIERA over his next 19 innings. Still, the Phillies were confident enough in his skills that they returned him to the rotation at the end of June when Walker suffered another injury. Unfortunately, Turnbull lasted just three innings in his first start in eight weeks, exiting with shoulder soreness and later hitting the IL with a right lat strain. That injury would prove to be season-ending.

All in all, Turnbull finished the 2024 season with impressive numbers: a 2.65 ERA and 3.67 SIERA, both career-bests. His 26.1% strikeout rate and 17.1% K-BB% were the best marks of his career as well. Unfortunately, 54 1/3 innings isn’t much of a sample size, and his lat strain only added to his reputation as an injury-prone pitcher. He has spent time on the 60-day IL in each of the past four seasons, and only once has he thrown more than 60 innings in a season (148 1/3 IP in 2019). Thus, MLBTR described him as “something of a wild card” on our Top 50 Free Agents list this offseason. On a per-inning basis, Turnbull has shown the skills to be an above-average starting pitcher – he has averaged just over 3.0 FanGraphs WAR per 162 IP throughout his career – but that means a lot less for a pitcher who has not proven he can consistently start more than a handful of games per season.

All of that explains why Turnbull remains unsigned into March, and indeed, it sheds light on why he has not been credibly linked to a single suitor this winter. That being said, it’s not as if Turnbull can’t provide value to a major league club. Even with all the time he spent on the injured list in 2024, he was well worth his $2MM salary to the Phillies, producing 0.7 FanGraphs WAR and 1.2 Baseball Reference WAR while helping the team to victory in 12 of the 17 games in which he appeared. In a poll last month, more MLBTR readers voted Turnbull as the top remaining free agent starter than either Gibson or Andrew Heaney. While it now seems unlikely that Turnbull will secure the one-year, $7MM contract MLBTR initially predicted, he surely deserves a major league roster spot for the upcoming campaign.

So, where might Turnbull find that roster spot? At this point in the year, most teams are happy to stick with their in-house rotation options. It makes sense. Those are the guys the catchers, coaching staff, and analytics department are familiar with and the guys each team has been working with all spring. That means someone like Gibson might be forced to wait for an injury to free up a rotation spot he can claim. Turnbull, however, proved he could hold his own in a long-relief capacity last season, which would make it easier for a team to sign him as rotation depth, even if that team does not immediately have a rotation spot available. As he did with the Phillies, Turnbull could join a team with the expectation of pitching out of the bullpen, and eventually, a starting opportunity would almost certainly arise. That flexibility, in addition to the lack of rumors surrounding Turnbull and the relatively low salary he will command, makes it very difficult to narrow down the field of potential landing spots.

Back in November, Tim Dierkes predicted Turnbull would sign with the Padres, Anthony Franco the Rockies, Darragh McDonald the Blue Jays, and Steve Adams the Twins. San Diego and Colorado still seem like possibilities; the Padres are short on rotation depth even after signing Nick Pivetta and Kyle Hart this winter, while Austin Gomber’s shoulder soreness should have the Rockies looking to add another arm. Toronto, on the other hand, already has some good rotation depth in the form of Bowden Francis or Yariel Rodríguez (whichever one does not make the Opening Day rotation). Meanwhile, Minnesota has former top prospects Zebby Matthews, David Festa, and Louis Varland waiting in the wings, as well as Rule 5 draft pick Eiberson Castellano. The Twins have spent more than expected on free agents this winter, and it’s hard to think they’d be willing to spend any more on an area that is already a strength.

As for other potential suitors, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently reported that the Cardinals are considering adding a free agent reliever. While Turnbull isn’t a reliever, strictly speaking, he would likely be an upgrade over an arm like Gordon Graceffo, Kyle Leahy, or Chris Roycroft in a long-relief role. He would also offer depth to a rotation that lost both Gibson and Lance Lynn to free agency. Turnbull could come in especially handy if the Cardinals find a trade partner for one of their more expensive starters, such as Sonny Gray or Miles Mikolas, during the season.

The Guardians, Astros, Angels, White Sox, and Athletics are some more teams that could theoretically make room in their rotations. The Guardians are hoping to get some rotation upgrades midseason when Shane Bieber and John Means return from Tommy John, but they could use some help earlier in the year. RosterResource currently has Triston McKenzie (5.11 ERA, 5.34 SIERA in 20 starts from 2023-24) penciled in as their number five starter. The Astros also have several starters on the IL, leaving Hayden Wesneski, who has only made 22 starts in his career, as their most likely number five starter on Opening Day.

The Angels, arguably, have a complete rotation right now, but that’s only if they trust Reid Detmers in a regular role. The once-promising southpaw spent a significant portion of the 2024 season at Triple-A and pitched to a 6.70 ERA in 17 MLB starts. Meanwhile, the White Sox’s rotation is full of question marks after de facto “ace” Martín Pérez, but one might think they’d prefer to give as many opportunities as possible to the young arms within their organization. The Athletics are in a similar position.

One last team I would consider is the Mets. While they entered spring training with a surplus of starting pitching, their depth already looks thin after Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea both suffered injuries. Turnbull would likely be a depth upgrade over José Ureña, whom the Mets recently signed to a minor league deal.

So, where do MLBTR readers think Turnbull will ultimately wind up? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Who’s The Best Starting Pitcher Remaining?

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The top remaining free agent starter came off the board last night, when right-hander Nick Pivetta agreed with the Padres on a backloaded four-year deal that includes opt-outs after the second and third seasons. It’s a major shift from last winter, when top-of-the-market lefties Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery both lingered on the market deep into March and ultimately missed the start of the season while making up for lost Spring Training reps in the minor leagues. This winter, almost all of the top free agents have already landed somewhere as teams begin their first official workouts, with just five of MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents of the offseason (and zero of the top 20) still unsigned.

Four of the five remaining free agents in our Top 50 are starting pitchers. None of them compare to Snell and Montgomery’s stature as free agents last winter, or even Pivetta’s stature as the last mid-market arm available in this year’s market. Even so, each is a clearly useful arm who would help the majority of pitching staffs around baseball this year if signed. Which one should pitching-hungry teams be most interested in, however? A look at all four, in the order they appear on the Top 50:

Andrew Heaney

Heaney is entering his age-34 campaign in 2025 in a different position than his previous trips through free agency. He signed with the Dodgers prior to the 2022 season as a bounce-back candidate coming off a disastrous 2021 campaign, and after delivering excellent results for L.A. in 72 2/3 innings he signed a fresh deal with the Rangers as a risky but high-upside mid-rotation addition. His performance over two years in Texas didn’t play to that high-risk, high-reward narrative that surrounded his free agency, however, as he performed as a fairly run-of-the-mill back of the rotation arm.

In 307 1/3 innings of work for Texas over the past two years, Heaney pitched to a 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) with a 4.34 FIP. His 23.2% strikeout rate during that time is a far cry from not only the incredible 35.5% rate he flashed with the Dodgers, but also 26% clip he struck out opponents at from 2016 to 2021. Heaney has emerged from years of injury questions to serve as a fairly steady source of innings, with his 160 frames in 2024 being the most he’s posted in a season since 2018. There’s some room for upside in the veteran’s profile as well, with gains in walk rate (5.9%) and barrel rate (8.3%) last year suggesting he may be able to improve upon last year’s results.

Jose Quintana

Entering his age-36 season, Quintana has the most impressive resume of the pitchers discussed here. He’s a former All-Star who delivered front-of-the-rotation production at his peak with the White Sox. While those days are long behind him, he’s remained effective into his mid-30s. The southpaw signed with the Mets on the heels of a terrific 2022 with the Pirates and Cardinals where he posted a 2.93 ERA with a 2.99 FIP in 32 starts. The results in New York weren’t quite that good, but he was still capable of delivering solid mid- to back-of-the-rotation production in Queens with a 3.70 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 4.24 FIP in 246 innings of work.

Those results would be valuable in the No. 4 or 5 spot of most rotations, but a look under the hood reveals a somewhat more worrying profile. Quintana has struck out just 18.8% of opponents in each of the past two campaigns. His typically sharp command waned a bit in 2024, with an 8.8% walk rate that clocked in slightly north of average. That left him with the third-worst K-BB% among 58 qualified starters in the majors last year, ahead of only Tyler Anderson and Griffin Canning. On the other hand, his 47.4% groundball rate was tenth-best, and only six qualified starters allowed line drives at a lower clip. If he can continue those levels of contact management, it’s easy to imagine him having success in front of a strong defense.

Kyle Gibson

Gibson is the prototypical innings eater, a back-of-the-rotation arm who has posted an ERA below 4.00 just three times in his entire career who makes up for that with volume. Besides his half-season as a rookie back in 2013 and the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, Gibson has made at least 25 starts with at least 147 1/3 innings of work in every single season of his career. He’s averaged just over 30 starts and approximately 175 innings per season in those years. It’s a level of volume that’s hard to find in the the current era of pitching, and any team with instability in their rotation would stand to benefit from plugging Gibson into the mix.

However, Gibson’s status as one of the league’s more reliable arms comes with very limited upside. In 12 years as a big league pitcher, the right-hander has eclipsed 3.0 fWAR just once. He’s also begun to show some minor signs of decline that can’t be entirely ignored headed into his age-37 campaign; his 9.4% walk rate was elevated relative to his career norms, but more concerning was the 9.2% barrel rate he allowed that was tenth-worst among all qualified starters last year. Last year’s 13 quality starts were also the fewest he’s posted in a full season since 2019.

Spencer Turnbull

Turnbull stands out among this crowd of veterans as the youngest arm, entering his age-32 campaign this year. The righty also has by far the shortest track record of the four arms discussed here, with just 356 2/3 total innings in the majors under his belt across parts of six big league seasons. Once a promising young rotation prospect with the Tigers, Turnbull’s career was turned upside down by injuries. He hasn’t thrown more than 56 2/3 innings in a single season since 2019.

For all his lack of volume, Turnbull was excellent when healthy for the Phillies last year. He struck out 26.1% of opponents en route to a 2.65 ERA in a swing role, and while his 3.85 FIP and 3.67 SIERA are both less impressive they still paint him as a well above-average pitcher when healthy. Of all the pitchers listed here, Turnbull has the largest injury track record, but he’s also perhaps the best on a rate basis and the likeliest to deliver results that could put him in line for meaningful playoff innings.

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While the four pitchers discussed were the ones who made the cut for MLBTR’s Top 50 back in November, other interesting starters also remain available. Lance Lynn has flashed front-of-the-rotation production at points in his career and had a solid 3.84 ERA in 23 starts last year, but has also struggled badly at times and will pitch his age-38 season this year. Jakob Junis has pitched more out of the bullpen than the rotation in recent years but sports a strong 3.35 ERA in the past two seasons and started 17 games for the Giants in 2022. John Means is clearly quite talented but has only pitched 52 innings across the past three seasons due to multiple arm surgeries. He’ll be sidelined into the summer after UCL surgery last June.

Which of free agency’s remaining starters do MLBTR readers think is the best bet for success in 2025? Have your say in the poll below:

Phillies Notes: Hays, Turnbull, Painter

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Now that the Phillies have officially clinched a spot in the postseason, manager Rob Thomson spoke to reporters (including Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer) earlier today about the club’s plans for the postseason roster. Per Coffey, the club appears to be leaning towards a 12-man pitching staff and an expanded bench for the playoffs this year.

Garrett Stubbs, Edmundo Sosa, Kody Clemens, Weston Wilson, and Cal Stevenson currently make up the club’s bench mix. Stubbs and Sosa are all but guaranteed spots on the postseason bench as the club’s backup catcher and primary utility infielder respectively, but if the club plans to utilize a five-man bench in the postseason then there are still three spots up for grabs. In addition to Clemens, Wilson, and Stevenson, Coffey notes that recently-optioned infielder Buddy Kennedy could be in the mix for a spot on the postseason bench as well.

Perhaps most notably, outfielder Austin Hays also figures to factor into the club’s bench conversation this postseason despite having spent the entire month of September to this point on the IL due to a kidney infection. Hays began a rehab assignment at Triple-A earlier today and while that rehab stint only figures to last two days with the Triple-A season set to end tomorrow, Thomson indicated to reporters (including Coffey) that the club isn’t concerned about the lack of in-game reps due to the fact that, if the Phillies secure a bye through the Wild Card round as they currently seem poised to do, Hays would be able to get plenty of at-bats in intra-squad games during that layoff prior to the NLDS.

Hays, 28, started the season with the Orioles but was dealt to the Phillies in the trade that sent right-hander Seranthony Dominguez to Baltimore ahead of the trade deadline back in July. Overall, he’s been a roughly league average bat this year with a .254/.305/.388 slash line (96 wRC+), though he was above average before slumping in Philadelphia as he adjusted to a bench role. With that said, he’s still an excellent source of offense against left-handed pitching, as demonstrated by his sensational 166 wRC+ against southpaws this season. That could make him a perfect platoon partner of sorts for Brandon Marsh, who the Phils have worked to protect from same-handed pitching for much of the year.

If Hays joins Sosa and Stubbs on the club’s bench, that would leave two spots available for the other four names that seem to be in discussion. Stevenson has enjoyed semi-regular playing time in a platoon with Johan Rojas in center field over the past month and could continue in a similar role into the playoffs, while Clemens has the strongest record of the group as a pinch hitter this year and could therefore be an attractive option as well. That being said, both Wilson and Kennedy could be viable alternatives if the club prefers more right-handed options on the bench beyond Sosa and Hays.

Set to join Hays on a rehab assignment tomorrow is right-hander Spencer Turnbull, who MLB.com’s Injury Tracker notes is expected to start the season finale at Triple-A before continuing his rehab at the club’s complex in Florida. It’s a step in the right direction for the 32-year-old, who has been shelved since late June due to a lat strain but could still return to the club during the postseason. The right-hander was nothing short of excellent for the Phillies in a swing role early this year, pitching to a 2.65 ERA with a 3.85 FIP in 54 1/3 innings of work.

Speaking of injured right-handers, Coffey noted that top pitching prospect Andrew Painter could be in the conversation to participate in the Arizona Fall League as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery, per president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. Painter has been throwing to live hitters in the club’s Florida complex, but Dombrowski noted that the club has avoided making a firm decision on his availability for the AFL so as to not put pressure on the 21-year-old to get ahead of himself in his rehab.

The club’s top pitching prospect and a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport, Painter was in the conversation for the club’s Opening Day roster after a dominant Spring Training last year but ended up undergoing Tommy John surgery before being sidelined by injuries and eventually going under the knife. The youngster figures to be ready to return in time for the 2025 season, but a return this fall in Arizona would be an encouraging development for a youngster who has lost plenty of reps over the past two seasons due to injury.

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