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Alfonso Soriano To Cards Rumor False

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I’ve been getting a lot of emails about this rumor, which indicates that Alfonso Soriano has agreed in principle to a deal with the Cardinals for seven years and $77MM. 

MLB4U.com is a cool website and that’s where this one started.  However, the site allows users to post rumors and this is one such example.  The link provided there does not go to a story about Soriano or even the correct newspaper.

Plus, a quick gut check says that this one does not make sense.  Soriano’s agent was recently talking about a contract some $40MM higher than that amount.  I don’t know why Soriano would take a deal that averaged just $11MM annually or why he would agree to a deal so quickly.  I think it is safe to say that this rumor is false.

2007 MLB Free Agents: Gary Matthews Jr.

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The Rangers would like to retain free agent center fielder Gary Matthews Jr., but competition could be fierce if he hits the market.  It’s important to remember that Sarge Jr. will be entering his age 32 season in 2007.  Perhaps his athleticism will help him age better. 

While Matthews’s .372 OBP is a career high, you’ll notice that it’s entirely batting average driven.  He hasn’t improved his walk rate at all this season.  The improvement in batting average is tied to more frequent contact – he’s up to 84% in that department.  He’s also got a career high SLG.  The increase can be attributed to doubles and triples, as Matthews’s flyball percentage and home runs per flyball have not changed.  It stands to reason that he’ll regress to something near .270/.330/.440 in 2007. 

Matthews has been abandoned by the Padres (twice), Cubs, Pirates, Orioles (twice), Braves, and Mets.  He’s dealt with all kinds of injuries in the past few years: ribcage strain, hamstring strain, calf strain, sliced thumb from slicing a bagel, and wrist tendinitis. 

Despite all this, I’m not down on Matthews as a free agent signing.  The average center fielder hits about .270/.335/.425 and plays, well, average defense.  Matthews should be able to hit a little better than that and play plus defense.  Sure, he’ll decline from his career season.  But CFs like Matthews don’t grow on trees.  Would you rather have the defense of Dave Roberts out there? 

Lately the possibility has been raised of the Mariners signing Matthews.  This would be an odd signing, given the Mariners’ decent outfield arrangement and dire need for starting pitching.

Should the Rangers fail to retain Matthews, both Chicago teams, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rockies could all be interested.  I’d be impressed if any team could get him for fewer than three years.  He made $2.4MM this year, but could command $7-8MM annually on the open market.   

2007 St. Louis Cardinals

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I already took my best shot at a 2007 plan for the Cardinals back in August.  But, let’s do our usual Team Outlook analysis for the club.  The Viva El Birdos article was more my recommendations, so here we’ll discuss more of what I think Walt Jocketty will do.

2007 contract obligations:

C – Yadier Molina – $0.4MM
C –
1B – Albert Pujols – $15MM
2B – Aaron Miles – $0.35MM
SS – David Eckstein – $4.5MM
3B – Scott Rolen – $12MM
IF –
LF – Chris Duncan – $0.33MM
CF –
RF – Juan Encarnacion – $5MM
OF – Larry Bigbie – $0.9MM
OF – So Taguchi – $0.825MM
OF – John Rodriguez – $0.332MM

SP – Chris Carpenter – $7MM
SP – Anthony Reyes – $0.33MM
SP – Adam Wainwright – $0.327MM
SP –
SP –

RP – Jason Isringhausen – $8.75MM
RP – Braden Looper – $4.5MM
RP – Jorge Sosa – $2.2MM
RP – Ricardo Rincon – $1.45MM
RP – Josh Hancock – $0.355MM
RP – Randy Flores – $0.35MM
RP – Brad Thompson – $0.334MM
RP – Josh Kinney – $0.33MM
RP – Chris Narveson – $0.33MM

The Cards have roughly $70MM tied up after entering 2006 with an $89MM payroll.  Should ownership be willing to go into the mid-90s in ’07, there will be some serious cash spent in St. Louis.  You’ll notice I don’t list Jim Edmonds as the center fielder.  It seems pretty obvious that the Cards won’t be picking up his $10MM option given La Russa’s comments.  More on that later.

Catching: can Molina’s defense compensate for a .600 OPS?  I’m not sure anyone’s defense has ever compensated for that kind of offensive futility.  Nonetheless, the Cards don’t appear to be looking for a change.  They’ll just bring in a backup.

Miles definitely won’t hit enough to play 2B every day; that’s why they brought Belliard in.  I think the Cards will either re-up Belliard or snag a scrappy Mark Loretta/Adam Kennedy type.  Said scrappy player will then be foolishly called team’s MVP by John Kruk despite presence of the best hitter of my generation at first base. 

The $4MM or so that I can see going towards 2B would be better allocated to a backup plan in left.  At what point is Chris Duncan no longer a fluke?  On one hand, 20 HR in 291 plate appearances is nothing to sneeze at.  In fact, Duncan’s home run every 14.55 PAs is tenth best in the game among those with 250 PAs.  The Cards will likely bank on Duncan being league averge in 2007 – .279/.361/.481.  His minor league record doesn’t support that, but you never know.

As I’ve said before, the Jocketty can help right the wrong that was the Encarnacion signing by moving him to center.  He’s below average out there, but it’d be easier to stomach his bat.  He’s also not terribly expensive.  But if you move Encarnacion to center, you really need some defense in right.  That means Jose Guillen or Trot Nixon.  The more conventional approach would be to sign one of these guys – probably Gary Matthews Jr. or Dave Roberts – to replace Edmonds in center.

The pitching staff has problems as well.  Where does La Russa want to put Wainwright?  He’s mentioned using him in the rotation, and that seems most likely.  It’ll be similar to the Papelbon situation – do you want a proven very good reliever or a guy who might hold up and be decent for 180 innings?  I’d install Wainwright at closer. 

Either way, the club needs to come up with at least two starters.  I’m not really seeing the pieces for a good trade.  The free agent market bears all sorts of projects and mid-level guys.  Wade Miller may have something left as a finesse pitcher.  Kip Wells still has potential.  Mark Redman would probably love to return to the NL.  The Ramon Ortizes, Miguel Batistas, and Tony Armas Jrs need homes.

The fan base will probably revolt if Jocketty doesn’t acquire someone a little better than that, though.  Someone like Gil Meche, Vicente Padilla, Mark Buehrle, or Ted Lilly.  In my crystal ball I see a lowball offer for Jason Schmidt and a Plan B three-year deal for one of the above as the "#2 starter."

The ’pen looks like a wreck, but I would hope Jocketty learned from the Looper signing.  Find your relievers somewhere else.  You’d hate to see another three-year deal for the likes of Jamie Walker, Danys Baez, Darren Oliver, or Russ Springer.  Such a move would not surprise me, however.

By and large, Walt Jocketty has made many brilliant decisions as GM.  He’s leaned toward affordable finesse pitchers and it’s mostly worked.  He likes to trade young talent for proven vets.  He practices "buy low" strategies to much success.  (All of that came courtesy of Brian Gunn’s fine article in the Hardball Times 2006 Annual.)  Jocketty’s decision-making has slipped of late, and he’ll have to be at the top of his game to keep the Cards atop the division in 2007.

2007 MLB Free Agents: Luis Gonzalez

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It’s been reported in multiple papers that the Diamondbacks will not be offering left fielder Luis Gonzalez a contract for 2007.  He’ll join a robust free agent left fielder market this winter.

The average left fielder posts an OPS in the .810-.825 range, while Gonzalez stands at .824 this season.  A second half doubles surge, which included a .906 OPS, has brought him up to that mark after a subpar first half in the power department.  Baseball Prospectus projects a .266/.355/.463 line from him next year (that’d be an .818 OPS in his age 39 season).  Such a performance would justify a one-year deal for $2.5MM, according to BP.

According to an Arizona Republic article, Gonzalez could play for his hometown Devil Rays but probably prefers to remain in the NL.  The Cardinals would be a pretty good fit if they chose not to rely on Chris Duncan.  The Giants might be another possibility.

Edmonds Option To Be Declined?

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Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has an informative look at how the Cardinals will reshape their team this winter. 

Aside from a major rotation makeover, there’s also the issue of Jim Edmonds’s $10MM option.  According to Strauss:

"The Cardinals are increasingly unlikely to assume Edmonds’ $10 million option for 2007, an issue complicated by the Gold Glove outfielder’s ongoing struggle with post-concussion syndrome, according to club sources."

I have a lot of faith in Strauss’s club sources, and this has definitely been the vibe lately.  Edmonds himself feels that it will be declined.

I know it’s been a disappointing year for Edmonds, but I have to get up on my soapbox again:  exercising his option is a no-brainer for the Cardinals.  They need a center fielder.  Edmonds is still well above average.  The decision to exercise the option is essentially the decision to give him a one year, $7MM deal (given the $3MM buyout price).  What team, in need of a center fielder, wouldn’t take Edmonds at that price and length? 

Teams do this all the time: they pass over the best option because he’s the in-house option.  No other good reason.  Kind of reminds me of when the Cubs let Moises Alou walk after 2004.  Say Edmonds had been a Yankee all his life, put up the exact same numbers, same contract, same post-concussion problems.  Brian Cashman inexplicably buys him out this winter.  Instead of testing the free agent waters, Edmonds tells Walt Jocketty he wants to be a Cardinal for one year, $7MM.  Is there any chance in hell Jocketty would turn that down?

The alternatives: throw Juan Encarnacion out there, or sign one of these guys.  I’m a big fan of the former option, because it rights the wrong that was signing Encarnacion to a three year, $15MM deal.  I wish the Cubs would do this with Jacque Jones.  A .776 OPS looks a lot better coming from CF than RF.  The only catch is that Jocketty would then need to sign Moises Alou, Jose Guillen, Trot Nixon, or Gary Sheffield for right field.  If that’s the solution, I’ll stop griping about Edmonds because that’s not bad at all.

2007 MLB Free Agents: Dave Roberts

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There’s been some chatter about Dave Roberts lately – he’ll be a coveted free agent this winter.  Back in July, I discussed Roberts in my center fielder free agent market review:

"Roberts, 34, is best known for his stolen base in the 2004 ALCS.  He’s solidly above average at hitting but is ranked just 30th on defense.  He’s got a weak arm but was a solid defender prior to 2005.  According to the Fielding Bible, Roberts still has his speed and range so he should bounce back defensively if healthy.  He’s been moved to left field to make an excellent pair with Mike Cameron.  If someone can snag him for $3-4 mil and get him 500 ABs, he’s a fine option.  It’s just that he has a lengthy injury history."

It just so happens that in his contract year, Roberts looks to set career highs in at-bats, batting average, and on-base percentage.  The Padres have enjoyed his .382 OBP mark (18th in the league) at the top of their order.  He’s also stolen bases at better than a 90% clip.  His $2.25MM salary is a bargain, and he’ll have plenty of suitors.

Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune recently mentioned that the White Sox and Cardinals are already showing some interest.  Rockies beat writer Troy E. Renck throws Colorado’s hat into the ring.

A few other possibilities: the Blue Jays could go after Roberts if they decide to trade Vernon Wells.  The Rangers could get involved if Gary Matthews Jr. departs.  Ditto for the Cubs if they don’t retain Juan Pierre.      

Cardinals Acquire Preston Wilson

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In a minor move this morning, the Cardinals acquired outfielder Preston Wilson.  The 32 year-old had been released by the Astros.

Wilson is expected to step in for Chris Duncan if the clock strikes midnight or for Jim Edmonds if this post-concussion thing persists.  Wilson at least has an OK ability to hit southpaws most years, whereas Edmonds has been slipping in ’06.  Still, Edmonds mashed them in ’05 and this year’s sample is only 95 at-bats.

The Astros released Wilson after his SLG plummeted to just .405 this season.  He slugged .443 in Washington last year and PECOTA projected .463 for ’06.  I know I thought he’d hit 30 home runs playing half his games in Minute Maid. 

2007 MLB Free Agents: Jim Edmonds

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Seems time to revisit the situation of St. Louis center field stalwart Jim Edmonds.  You may recall a month ago, when I remarked:

"Edmonds has a $10MM option for ’07 with a $3MM buyout, so the Cards really just need to decide if Edmonds is worth $7MM in his age 37 season.  Baseball Prospectus says he is, even if he only gets 515 plate appearances as projected.  Even on the decline Edmonds is a powerful force in the lineup.  However, the Fielding Bible ranks him just 32nd out of 35 center fielders over the last three years.  They say that despite the excellent arm, he’s "lost a step" and did not deserve his last two Gold Gloves.  Still seems wise for the Cards to keep him around if they can limit the years on the deal."

If Torii Hunter hits the market, he’d be the top free agent CF.  Otherwise, plenty of decent second tier options like Kenny Lofton, Dave Roberts, and Gary Matthews Jr. should be floating around.  Edmonds may be the best out there other than Hunter.  It would be silly for the Cardinals not to choose Edmonds’s $3MM buyout over his $10MM option.  How many teams would turn down a chance to have Edmonds on a one-year, $7MM deal?  That’s what Walt Jocketty faces.

Nonetheless, Edmonds is getting the vibe that the Cards will choose the buyout.  Who’s Jocketty going to bring in instead?  Roberts or Lofton for a few million less?  Even on the decline, Edmonds can still contribute an .825 OPS for 130 games.  That’s much better than the average NL CF, who has an OPS of .750 or so.

Viva El Birdos: Cardinals Acquire Jorge Sosa

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You might have a hard time getting over there, as SB Nation’s servers have been overwhelmed.  But the Cardinals blog Viva El Birdos reports that the Cards have acquired pitcher Jorge Sosa for Triple A reliever Rich Scalamandre.

Sosa’s progression this year was as follows.  First, he signed a $2.2MM deal with the Braves in January after posting a very flukey 2.55 ERA in 134 innings.  Then Sosa pitched for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic as a reliever in March.  The Braves decided to begin the season with Sosa as their #4 starter and John Thomson in the pen.  By late June, Sosa was moved to the bullpen due to his poor pitching.  After mercifully removing him from the rotation, Bobby Cox decided to make Sosa the closer.  By the middle of the month Sosa lost his job to Ken Ray; he was demoted yesterday. 

Scalamandre, 25, was promoted to Triple A on June 21st and has been OK in 19 innings.

Carroll: Marquis For Heilman?

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Fueled by pierogis, time to write up another rumor before I hit the hay.  Monday should be good times.

According to Will Carroll this evening, the Mets and Cardinals are talking about an Aaron Heilman for Jason Marquis swap. Most Mets fans seem up in arms at the possibility.

After all, Marquis will be a free agent after this season and currently sports a 5.67 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. "But wait!" you’re saying.  "What about those times Tony La Russa sacrificed his ERA to save the bullpen?"  Alright, alright, let’s take those out (which is more than a tad generous).  Removing Marquis’s 12 and 13 earned run starts, he’s got a 4.39 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.  That actually makes Marquis look like an above average pitcher.  Indeed, he is a pretty solid back of the rotation guy.

Heilman has stumbled a bit this season, posting a 4.32 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 58 innings of relief.  He’s actually improved upon his control a bit, but his strikeout rate is down significantly and his hit rate is subsequently way up.  It’d be interesting to see what a Dave Duncan or Don Cooper could do with him.  Could he be worked back into a starting role?  It’s not out of the question but success as a starter is no slam dunk.  Just ask Ryan Madson. 

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