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AL East Notes: Sandoval, Devers, Tillman, Erasmo

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Tim Britton of the Providence Journal takes a look at where the Red Sox’ contract with Pablo Sandoval stands historically in comparison to other large contracts. As might be expected, it doesn’t fare well at this stage of the analysis. While there’s still time for the former star to add back value, it seems likelier than ever that he won’t hold onto a roster spot for the rest of the season. (Currently, Sandoval is taking a DL stint for an inner ear infection.) As things stand, says Britton, Sandoval has posted the worst performance (by measure of WAR) of any player to sign a deal in excess of $90MM.

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • Sandoval’s struggles have helped frame the trade deadline for the Red Sox, as third base presently stands as a glaring need. But there is perhaps one other possibility: top prospect Rafael Devers, who has hit well at Double-A. Boston, presumably, would want to have a look at Devers in the majors before deciding whether to forgo a significant outside addition. That won’t happen immediately, though; per skipper John Farrell, via Rob Bradford of WEEI.com (on Twitter), Devers’s next promotion will be to Triple-A Pawtucket, not to the majors. With less than six weeks to go until the trade deadline, this raises the question whether the club is seriously considering Devers as the near-term answer at third. That said, it’s possible to imagine that Boston will hold out such a possibility while also moving to add a veteran piece at the hot corner, perhaps preferring a player who could also see time elsewhere on the diamond (in the middle infield, at first, or even in the outfield) over a pure third bagger.
  • The Orioles’ rotation remains a major question mark, with righty Chris Tillman now seemingly at risk of losing his spot. As Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun writes, team and player seem to be running out of ideas; Tillman has limped to a ghastly 8.39 ERA with just 5.9 K/9 against 5.0 BB/9 through 39 2/3 innings on the year since returning from injury. While manager Buck Showalter says he’s “hoping Chris can solve this as a starter,” he hinted that the patience is running thin while noting that Tillman is operating without “a lot of crispness” or “a real confident presentation” on the mound. While Tillman says he’s healthy, Meoli notes that he’s struggling to maintain his release point — with a velocity drop and command troubles on his secondary offerings seemingly resulting. All told, it’s a big problem for the O’s, who lack obvious internal solutions, and for the pending free agent.
  • Also struggling at the moment is Rays righty Erasmo Ramirez. As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, skipper Kevin Cash says that there’s no immediate threat to Ramirez’s rotation spot despite his recent struggles. Still, Topkin suggests that Ramirez’s outing today could determine his near-term fate. With young lefty Blake Snell and others throwing well at Triple-A, there are alternative available to Tampa Bay. How the Rays rotation evolves over the coming six weeks could have some deadline implications, too. The club presently sits two games over .500, and likely won’t punt a chance to contend, but might still market a starter (particularly, free-agent-to-be Alex Cobb) if the team feels it has sufficient in-house depth.

Draft Signings: Reds, Brewers, Yankees, Tigers

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Here are some of the day’s notable draft signings:

  • The Reds have agreed to terms with three of their top four picks, according to reports from MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon (on Twitter) and Jim Callis (also via Twitter). 32nd overall selection Jeter Downs and 38th pick Stuart Fairchild have both signed for at-slot bonuses, per Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter). Downs, a high-school shortstop, will receive $2,084,400 to forgo his commitment to the University of Miami. The MLB.com prospect team was the only one to place him inside the top 50, at #37, citing his solid all-around profile and rising status entering the draft. Fairchild, a junior outfielder out of Wake Forest, will take the $1,802,800 slot money. ESPN.com’s Keith Law was the highest pundit on Fairchild, ranking him 31st among eligible players while noting his strength and potential ability to remain in center field as a professional. Meanwhile, third-round pick Jacob Heatherly will land well over the $743,900 slot value of the 77th overall pick. The prep lefty will take home a $1,047,500 bonus, per Callis.
  • Brewers second-rounder Caden Lemons has struck a deal with his new team, he tells Kyle Parmley of the Vestavia Voice. The Ole Miss commit elected to turn pro for a still-unreported bonus amount. Lemons was taken 46th overall, a pick that comes with a $1,493,500 allocation. Entering the draft, the righty was ranked as high as 52nd overall. He received that grade from ESPN.com’s Keith Law, who cites Lemon’s projectability as well as concerns about his ability to stick in the rotation with a slight build.
  • The Yankees are in agreement with their second-round pick, righty Matt Sauer, pending a physical, MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports on Twitter. Bonus terms remain unknown at this time, but the 54th overall pick comes with a $1,236,000 allocation. Sauer, a California high-schooler who had been ticketed for the University of Arizona, drew top-thirty billing from MLB.com, Baseball America, and Fangraphs. While Sauer’s big fastball and slider point towards significant upside, the analysts agree he’ll need to work on a third offering to make it in a MLB rotation.
  • Tigers second-rounder Reynaldo Rivera is in agreement on a $850K bonus, Callis tweets. That’ll save the organization nearly $300K against the slot value to utilize on other players. Rivera, a power-hitting first baseman from Chipola Junior College, did not draw any top-100 prospect tabs but did land in the 150th place on MLB.com’s board.
  • Diamondbacks supplemental second-round choice Daulton Varsho will receive the slot value of $880,100 that comes with the 68th overall pick, Callis reports on Twitter. The Wisconsin-Milwaukee backstop, who’s the son of former big leaguer Gary Varsho, was the last player to reach the top 100 on Baseball America’s ranking.
  • In bonus news, the Rays gave second-round pick Michael Mercado $2,132,400, Callis tweets, which is well over the $1,714,500 bonus allocation for the 40th overall pick. His signing had previously been reported. Angels second-rounder Griffin Canning will indeed receive the slot value of $1,459,200, Callis tweets, as had previously been suggested.

Heyman’s Latest: Betts, Santana, Rays, Bautista, Braves, Arrieta, Holland

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The Red Sox looked into a long-term extension with Mookie Betts last winter, but both Betts and Xander Bogaerts are comfortable in year-to-year deals for now, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports.  Betts is already making a nice sum in endorsement deals, so it perhaps isn’t surprising that he (and Bogaerts) are in no rush to pursue a multi-year contract.  Bogaerts was arbitration-eligible for the first time last winter and is earning $4.5MM for 2017, while Betts will get his first run through the arb process this coming offseason, so while the price tags for both young stars will rise considerably, the Sox are still getting an overall bargain.

Here’s more from Heyman’s notes about the American League and National League from earlier this week…

  • There still haven’t been any talks about an extension between Carlos Santana and the Indians.  One executive believes Santana can land four years and $60MM in free agency this winter.
  • The Rays aren’t looking to sell, as they have a winning record and are in the thick of the AL East and wild card races.  Tampa Bay has been constantly cited as a potential seller given their financial limitations, with pending free agent Alex Cobb reportedly a candidate to switch teams.  Still, the Rays’ rotation has been thinned by Blake Snell’s demotion to the minors and Matt Andriese’s hip injury, so the club could hold off on any pitching decisions until closer to the deadline.
  • The Rays made a “creative” offer to Jose Bautista last winter that could have become a three-year deal if all options had been exercised.  The Rays were one of relatively few teams that were linked to Bautista (Heyman also mentions the Indians had interest) this winter, and ultimately, the slugger chose to stay in Toronto for more guaranteed money.  Bautista is earning $18MM this season, with a $17MM mutual option (with a $500K buyout) for 2018 and a $20MM club option for 2019 that can vest based on games played.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman is in his last year under contract but the team will give him an extension if he wishes.  The same is also true of manager Joe Girardi.  The Yankees generally wait until after the season to explore new deals for management, though with the team performing so well, Cashman and Girardi both seem very likely to remain in their current positions.
  • The Braves are expected to look into trades for pending free agents such as Jaime Garcia and Brandon Phillips.  Both players are performing well, with Phillips on pace for his best overall offensive season since 2011 and Garcia bouncing back ERA-wise (even if his peripherals are somewhat middling) after a disappointing 2016 season.
  • Speaking of the Braves’ Garcia, he has hired Michael Moye as his agent.  In another representation change, White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia hired Gene Mato in April.  For more on who represents who in the baseball world, be sure to check out MLBTR’s Agency Database.
  • A rival executive believes Jake Arrieta will get “at least five years” in free agency this winter despite a shaky performance thus far in 2017.  Arrieta’s 4.64 ERA over 77 2/3 IP could be in part due to some bad luck (a .319 BABIP, 65.8% strand rate and a spike in his home run rate), though his velocity and ground-ball rates are both down from last season and he is posting his highest hard-hit ball rate since 2010.  A sixth guaranteed year could be possible if Arrieta can so easily obtain five years, Heyman reasons, though given the Cubs ace’s struggles and his age (32 next Opening Day), I have my doubts.
  • Greg Holland’s outstanding comeback season with the Rockies could put him in line for a free agent deal similar to Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62MM contract with the Giants from last offseason.  Scott Boras, Holland’s agent, is aiming even higher, reportedly looking for a deal in the range of the record-setting (for relievers) contracts landed by Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen.
  • One Nationals source says the team thinks the Dodgers could be Washington’s biggest competition for Bryce Harper when the star outfielder reaches free agency after the 2018 season.  Harper has seemingly been linked to the Yankees for years, though as Heyman notes, Aaron Judge’s emergence in right field could mean that New York instead pursues Manny Machado first among the star-studded 2018-19 free agent class before looking into Harper.  Then again, if the Yankees are able to “get below the [luxury tax] threshold, there’s no telling what they may try to do” that winter, given how their tax penalty clock will be reset just as multiple superstar players will hit the open market.

AL East Notes: Plouffe, Davis, Smith, Red Sox

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The Rays see newly acquired Trevor Plouffe helping them against left-handed pitching, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. He’ll be used to spell Evan Longoria at third base and Logan Morrison at first, and the Rays could also consider using him in the corner outfield spots, manager Kevin Cash tells Topkin. Cash also says the organization had talks with Plouffe last winter before he ultimately signed with the Athletics. “For us to be able to get him here two months, three months, in is a good thing for us,” Cash says. Here’s more from the AL East.

  • Chris Davis’ oblique strain could keep him out of the Orioles’ lineup until after the All-Star break, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. This season’s break begins July 10. Davis reports improvement in the injury but says he’s still having trouble moving and sleeping. “I was basically told it’s sensitive,” says Davis. “It’s one of those things you don’t want to rush because if you have a setback, it makes things that much harder.” This isn’t Davis’ first oblique strain — he landed on the disabled list with one in 2014, although that one was on his left side, and his current injury is on his right.
  • Red Sox reliever Carson Smith has been shut down for four or five days with a shoulder inflammation, meaning he won’t be able to begin his rehab assignment as planned, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal tweets. Smith had Tommy John surgery last year and hasn’t pitched in a big-league game since last May, so this setback, even if it proves to be a minor one, must be frustrating for him.
  • Trades for Smith and another injured reliever, Tyler Thornburg, demonstrate a failure in approach, Evan Drellich of CSNNE.com writes. It’s not the Red Sox’ fault Smith and Thornburg got hurt, but reliever performance tends to be mercurial, and the Red Sox have gotten good results this season from players like Matt Barnes and Robby Scott, for whom they didn’t have to part with significant assets. Of course, as Drellich also notes, the team’s trade for Craig Kimbrel has been a great success thus far.

Notable Draft Signings: Twins, Rays, Braves, Angels, Reds

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Here’s a roundup of notable recent signings from last week’s draft.

  • The Twins have agreed to terms with compensation pick and outfielder Brent Rooker, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press writes. SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Rooker will receive the slot value of the No. 35 pick, which is $1,935,300. The Twins selected Rooker in the 38th round last year, and he gave them permission to draft him again, Berardino writes. Rooker batted a ridiculous .387/.495/.810 this season for Mississippi State. MLB.com rated him the No. 50 prospect in the draft, noting his track record of performing well with wood bats in summer leagues.
  • The Rays have signed second-round pick Michael Mercado, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Mercado will receive about $2MM, somewhat above the slot value of $1,714,500 for the No. 40 overall pick. MLB.com ranked Mercado 70th-best talent available, noting the California high school righty’s ability to throw four pitches for strikes. He was committed to Stanford.
  • The Braves have announced that they’ve signed their second-round pick, Georgia high school outfielder Drew Waters. Waters will receive a bonus of $1.5MM, saving the Braves about $175K against the $1,674,600 slot value of the No. 41 pick, as Hudson Belinsky of Baseball America tweets. Waters ranked as MLB.com’s No. 42 talent in the draft, praising his speed and the hard contact he makes at the plate. Baseball America was even higher on him, ranking him No. 23 and praising the switch-hitter’s power as both a lefty and righty. He was committed to the University of Georgia.
  • The Angels have agreed to a deal with second-rounder Griffin Canning, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets. Fletcher notes that Canning will receive close to the slot value for the No. 47 pick, which is $1,459,200. Canning, a righty from UCLA, originally projected to go in the middle of the first round, but his stock reportedly dropped due to concerns over the results of an MRI. MLB.com rated Canning the No. 17 prospect in the draft, praising his simple delivery and describing him as a future mid- or back-of-the-rotation pitcher.
  • The Reds have signed fourth-rounder Cash Case for $1M, MLB.com’s Jim Callis tweets. The Florida high school shortstop will presumably need some sort of bag or other implement to carry that hefty sum, which comes in at significantly above the pick value of $501,900. Case has the potential to become an offensively-minded second baseman, Callis notes. Case did not rank in MLB.com’s top 200, but Baseball America rated him the No. 324 prospect in the draft. He was committed to Notre Dame.

Rays Acquire Trevor Plouffe From Athletics

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The Rays have acquired infielder Trevor Plouffe from the Athletics for cash considerations or a player to be named later, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes (Twitter links). The Rays will also receive cash in the deal, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets, with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle adding that the Rays will receive over $2MM to cover a portion of the approximately $3MM left on Plouffe’s $5.25MM 2017 salary. The Rays have moved righty Matt Andriese (hip) to the 60-day DL to clear space for Plouffe on their 40-man roster.

The Athletics designated Plouffe for assignment last week after he batted just .214/.276/.357 while striking out 29.1% of the time in 199 plate appearances this season. The 31-year-old also had a somewhat disappointing 2016 campaign with the Twins in which he hit a modest .260/.303/.420 while earning below-average marks in UZR and DRS for his defense. The Twins then outrighted him rather than taking him through the arbitration process.

Still, there’s perhaps reason for the Rays to hope Plouffe will be somewhat productive. He was a decent regular in Minnesota in 2014 and 2015, and he has decent power (with 103 career big-league home runs) and can play either infield corner. He’s also batted a solid .269/.345/.459 against lefties in his career, whereas the Rays as a team have hit a modest .227/.312/.374 against southpaws.

The Rays have established players at third (Evan Longoria), first (Logan Morrison) and DH (Corey Dickerson), but the left-handed Morrison, despite having a very strong season overall, has not hit lefties well in his career. The Rays could try to find further opportunities for Plouffe as a pinch-hitter, and he should improve their bench, which has had uninspiring options like Michael Martinez and Rickie Weeks to man the infield corners. Also, as ESPN’s Jim Bowden points out in a tweet, the Rays’ AL East rivals the Red Sox have struggled at third base this season and had interest in Plouffe last winter, and the Rays acquiring him prevents the Red Sox from acquiring him now. Plouffe is eligible for free agency after the season.

Draft Notes: Lewis, McKay, Day 2, Gore, Greene, Wright, Beck

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No. 1 overall draft pick Royce Lewis will take his physical with the Twins soon, tweets Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. There aren’t expected to be any hangups in negotiations, per Berardino, who notes that the industry expectation is for Lewis to receive a bonus north of Dansby Swanson’s $6.5MM bonus from the 2015 draft. The top pick in the draft came with a slot value of $7.7MM, and MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger wrote this week that Lewis could sign for around $1MM less than that sum. That’d put his bonus in the $6.5MM to $6.7MM range, saving the Twins anywhere from $1MM to $1.2MM from the slot value. FanRag’s Jon Heyman pegs the expected value at “just a tick over” $6.7MM. Rays top pick Brendan McKay, meanwhile, is expected to sign for somewhere between $7MM and $7.2MM, according to Berardino. That’d be the largest bonus ever given to a college player under the current draft structure, surpassing Kris Bryant’s $6.7MM sum.

More notes on the draft…

  • The Twins “crushed” Day 2 of the draft, MLB.com’s Jim Callis opines. Adding high school right-hander Blayne Enlow, a potential first-round talent that dropped due to a strong commitment to LSU, kicked off a day in which Minnesota selected five players that ranked inside MLB.com’s top 200 draft prospects. Enlow, Callis writes, has the best curveball in the draft as well as a fastball that has touched 94 mph and has room to grow as his projectable frame grows. Callis also lauds the White Sox, Dodgers, Red Sox and Brewers for the talent they secured in rounds three through 10. ESPN’s Keith Law agrees that the Twins did quite well to land Enlow with the No. 76 pick and also gives quite a bit of praise to the Athletics, who landed a first-round talent (in his estimation) with the 81st pick by taking shortstop Nick Allen. Law opines that the undersized Allen, who is listed at 5’8″, would’ve been a top 10 pick if he were three inches taller.
  • FanRag’s Jon Heyman provides some insight into the progress being made with the top five picks in the draft. The Padres, according to Heyman, are expected to sign No. 3 overall pick MacKenzie Gore, a high school left-hander, for the full slot value of $6,668,100. Reds top pick Hunter Greene, meanwhile, is expected to sign for a deal “close” to the $7,193,200 slot value of his No. 2 overall selection, per Heyman. (Also of note for Reds fans: Heyman spoke to a rival exec who heaped praise on the Reds’ draft, opining that they “won the draft by far.”) And the Braves look to be going well over slot to sign Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright, as Heyman reports that they’re discussing a deal worth close to $7MM, while the No. 5 slot carries a value of $5,707,300. Of course, Wright was long rumored to be a potential No. 1 overall pick, so it stands to reason that he’d come with a fairly sizable price tag.
  • Baseball America’s John Manuel reported yesterday that Stanford right-hander Tristan Beck, a potential first-round talent that missed the 2017 season due to a stress fracture in his lower back, will not sign and plans to head back to Stanford (Twitter link). That didn’t stop the Yankees from drafting him late (29th round), though New York would obviously need to give him a massive bonus in order to convince him to forgo a return to college, as a healthy Beck would do quite well in next year’s draft. The Yankees may not have the leftover money even to make a legitimate effort to sign Beck, though he makes for a nice contingency plan if the team unexpectedly finds itself with some extra pool money to play with.

Draft Chatter: Lewis, McKay, College Arms, Mock Drafts, A’s

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With the MLB Draft just a few hours away, there’s some increasing talk that the Twins are giving serious consideration to high school shortstop Royce Lewis with the No. 1 overall pick. John Manuel of Baseball America tweeted today that Lewis is in consideration and adds that he was told by a Twins official that signability is a factor for the Twins up top. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that the Twins are down to Lewis and Louisville left-hander/first baseman Brendan McKay. Meanwhile, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson tweeted that as of this morning, a Twins front office source told him that no decision has been made.

For those wondering whether the Twins may cut a deal with Lewis to save money and allow greater spending with their Comp Balance pick and second-round selection, FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that Lewis has a high asking price. (Lewis is reportedly being advised by agent Scott Boras.) Adding to the Lewis/Twins steam is La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, who tweeted that with less than three hours until the Twins are on the clock, the Lewis steam is real. McKay and flamethrowing righty Hunter Greene are both in the mix, Neal adds, and money is a significant factor in the decision. Obviously, the Twins will spend their entire allotted draft budget regardless of who they take, but the amount for which the first overall pick signs will determine how aggressive the Twins can be on pick Nos. 35 and 37 as well as with the rest of their selections.

A bit more on tonight’s draft…

  • Fangraphs’ Gerald Schifman takes an excellent look at the usage of some of the top college arms in the draft, examining each pitcher’s average pitches per start, the percentage of starts in excess of 115 pitches and the number of “Pitch Smart” violations. (More details on the Pitch Smart guidelines here.) Notably, projected top picks like Vanderbilt’s Kyle Wright and Louisville’s Brendan McKay have had their pitch counts and rest between starts managed quite well for the most part. On the other end of the spectrum is UCLA righty Griffin Canning, who has throw 115+ pitches in 53 percent of his outings in the past two seasons. Missouri’s Tanner Houck has also had some troubling usage trends, including high pitch counts and a lack of rest between outings.
  • As is always the case on draft day, there are a number of last-minute mock drafts from some industry experts that readers and draft followers will want to check out. Both Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com agree that the top five picks will go Brendan McKay (Twins), Hunter Greene (Reds), MacKenzie Gore (Padres), Royce Lewis (Rays) and Keston Hiura (Braves). That, somewhat surprisingly, would leave Kyle Wright out of the top five, though Callis has him going sixth to the A’s, while Mayo has him going seventh to the D-backs. BA’s John Manuel agrees with that top three, though he has high school outfielder Bubba Thompson going to the Rays and Wright going to the Braves at No. 5. ESPN’s Keith Law also published a draft-day mock, listing McKay, Greene, Gore, Lewis and Wright as his respective top five.
  • The Athletics are up with the No. 6 pick in the draft tonight, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle connects them to a number of outfielders and pitchers. High school lefty MacKenzie Gore is on Oakland’s radar, though many project him to go before the A’s are on the clock. High school outfielder Austin Beck is also an Athletics target and recently had a private workout with the A’s. Slusser notes that they’d be thrilled to see Kyle Wright slip to them with the sixth selection, similarly to the manner in which Florida lefty A.J. Puk dropped to Oakland last year after being discussed as a potential 1-1 option. Wright’s teammate, outfielder Jeren Kendall, is also intriguing to the A’s, per Slusser.

Matt Andriese Likely Out Until August With Stress Reaction In Hip

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Rays right-hander Matt Andriese has been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his hip, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter links). The injury will likely sideline him into the month of August, according to Topkin. Well-regarded prospect Jacob Faria has been recalled to start in place of Andriese this week and could be in line for a long-term audition in the rotation.

Per Topkin, Andriese needs a “few weeks” off his hip before he’s able to begin a throwing program and then build up arm strength. There’s no fracture in the hip, and Andriese will not require surgery.

Andriese, 27, may not carry much name recognition among casual fans, but he’s been a key member of the Tampa Bay rotation thus far in 2017. Through 61 innings, he’s logged a 3.54 ERA with 8.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 46.4 percent ground-ball rate. That performance had earned him a definitive spot in the Tampa Bay starting five after splitting time between the rotation and bullpen a year ago.

With Andriese out for upwards of two months, it seems that the Rays will deploy a rotation of Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Alex Cobb, Erasmo Ramirez and Faria for the time being. Top prospect Jose De Leon is on the disabled list in Triple-A with a right lat injury, so he isn’t an option to step up for the time being. Southpaw Blake Snell has been excellent since being optioned to Triple-A earlier this year, but the Rays, at least for now, seemingly want to see sustained success out of the longtime top prospect before bringing him back up to the Majors, where he struggled to begin the year.

As for Faria, you’d be hard-pressed to argue that the 23-year-old hasn’t earned a lengthy look in the Majors. Through 58 1/3 innings of Triple-A work this year, he’s pitched to a 3.07 ERA with 12.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 41.5 percent ground-ball rate. He’s already made his big league debut with the Rays as well, making a spot start last week during which he limited the White Sox to one run on three hits and two walks with five strikeouts across 6 1/3 innings.

Draft Notes: Twins, Reds, Rays, Braves

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A day before the start of the 2017 MLB Draft, here are the current rumblings.

  • The Twins look likely to select Vanderbilt righty Kyle Wright or Louisville two-way player Brendan McKay with the first overall pick, John Manuel of Baseball America writes in his last mock (which came out Friday). Late last week, Jim Callis of MLB.com suggested the Twins were leaning toward McKay, although it seems the first pick is still the subject of some uncertainty. Both sources have the Reds taking California high school righty Hunter Greene at No. 2 and the Padres going with North Carolina high school lefty MacKenzie Gore at No. 3, although those picks could seemingly change based on what the Twins end up doing. (ESPN’s Keith Law, by the way, has a long profile of Greene, calling him “the best prospect in the draft class and one of the most gifted teenage players I’ve ever seen,” even as he notes that kind of praise can lead to burdensome expectations.)
  • Interestingly, Jonathan Mayo’s latest update in the MLB.com link above cites speculation that the Rays at No. 4 and the Braves at No. 5 could make predraft deals with players to save money against the value of their picks and then go after highly regarded talents in later rounds. (The Rays have a pool of about $12.5MM, with the Braves at just under $10MM.) One possibility should the Rays go that route is Alabama high school outfielder Bubba Thompson, who MLB.com currently rates as the No. 26 prospect in the draft. Atlanta could do something similar, but they could also take Wright or California high school SS/OF Royce Lewis if those players are still available when they make their first selection.
  • It’s possible you remember Darren Baker, Dusty’s son, as the small batboy being yanked away from home plate by J.T. Snow in the 2002 World Series. Now, though, Darren is an outfield prospect with a commitment to Cal. Dusty says, though, that Darren will honor that commitment unless he’s drafted “real, real high,” according to Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post (on Twitter).
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