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14 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR, including a list of 29 players last week. The next group, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Outfielders

Pitchers

Rays Open To Increased Payroll In 2024

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The Rays have a challenging offseason ahead, as they often do. Even after successful seasons, they usually find themselves looking for financial cuts given their low-spending ways. That could be the case again this winter though Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays that the club is open to running a higher payroll in order to keep much of the club intact.

“We have the ability to do that,” president of baseball operations Erik Neander says. “And that’s a nice starting point to have — 99 wins with contributions from as many players as we did this year, players that established themselves, young players getting their first opportunities. It puts us at a really strong position.”

The Rays usually run a payroll near the bottom of the league, with the data of Cot’s Baseball Contracts never having them above $85MM on Opening Day and they haven’t been higher than 25th in the league since 2010. Topkin’s report says the $78.245MM Opening Day figure from last year is actually the franchise high, which is even lower than the listing at Cot’s. But with raises due to various players on the team, running out a similar roster for 2024 would involve getting way up into the $120MM range.

Part of that is Tyler Glasnow, who made just $5.35MM this year but is set to jump to $25MM next year as part of the extension he signed with the club. Lesser raises are also due to other players who signed extensions like Manuel Margot, Yandy Díaz, Jeffrey Springs and Brandon Lowe. Then there’s the arbitration class, which features 16 players. Some of those are non-tender candidates but projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz show that Randy Arozarena will likely earn around $9MM, more than double this year’s $4.125MM salary, among many other notable jumps.

Roster Resource estimates that the club already had about $74MM committed for next year, without those arbitration estimates taken into account. The class is projected as a whole for $46.3MM, which lines up with Topkin’s $120MM figure for keeping the whole gang together.

In the past, the Rays have often dealt with this situation by moving on from notable players like Tommy Pham, Blake Snell and many others. The willingness to trade established big leaguers for cheaper and less-proven ones has allowed the club to continually compete even with their budgetary limitations. 2023 saw them reach the postseason for a fifth straight year, despite sharing a division with many bigger spenders. Though they were quickly eliminated in their last three postseason trips, it’s nonetheless been an impressive tightrope walk.

Perhaps they can proceed with a bit more continuity next year, if Neander’s words prove to be true. Skeptics would be forgiven for rolling their eyes, but the club has hinted at some greater spending capacity in the past. As Topkin points out, the club made an offer of $150MM over six years to Freddie Freeman before he ended up with the Dodgers.

Sticking with the same roster would still leave issues, given how the 2023 club started out red hot and faded as the season went along. But it’s possible that the reverse trajectory could be in store next year. Shane Baz missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery but should be ready to go for Spring Training. Springs required the same procedure in April and could rejoin the club next summer. Drew Rasmussen could also be a midseason returnee after undergoing an internal brace procedure in July. Continued development from younger players like Taj Bradley, Junior Caminero and Curtis Mead could also give them some more momentum.

The Freeman offer from a few years ago shows that the willingness to change course doesn’t necessarily lead to it actually happening. But as Topkin points out, the club had increased attendance this year and has a funding agreement for a new stadium, perhaps giving principal owner Stuart Sternberg some extra incentive to sign off on a different spending level, though it seems it may not be permanent even if it does happen.

“If the timing’s right — right player, right team, right time — there’s always that ability to push,” Neander says. “It’s probably going to come from somewhere at a later date. But there is a fluidity to our payrolls and things, there’s a freedom to it, that allow us to be more competitive if the right circumstances suggest we should make that run.”

Still, there are many who won’t believe in the higher payroll potential until it comes to fruition. It will likely also depend on what discussions happen in the winter with free agents or potential trade partners, something Neander acknowledges. “Every offseason is unique,” he says. “A lot of it will depend on what the other 29 teams are looking to do in addition to what we think is best for us. So, very TBD. Not much of an answer, but a lot of it is you’ve got to be ready to go in whatever direction the winter takes us. But we can run this group back. And it’s a good starting position.”

Kevin Cash: “Very Happy” In Tampa Bay

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Rays manager Kevin Cash met with reporters this morning at Tampa Bay’s end-of-season news conference. The two-time Manager of the Year addressed his future, quashing speculation he could consider leaving the team.

Cash said he’s “very happy” in Tampa Bay and “(looking) forward to next year, for sure” (relayed by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). He’s under contract for another season as part of an extension signed back in October 2018, with the club also holding an option for the ’25 campaign.

There’d been some speculation the 45-year-old could be on the Guardians’ radar as they look for candidates to replace Terry Francona. Veteran reporter Peter Gammons tweeted last week that some within the industry believe Francona preferred Cash, who spent the 2013-14 seasons on his staff as Indians’ bullpen coach, to be his successor in Cleveland. Topkin reports that the Guardians have not reached out to the Rays about the possibility of speaking with Cash, although he adds that Cleveland has checked in with Tampa Bay about an unidentified “former Rays employee” who is among the candidates for the job.

Cash’s comments, while not unexpected, more or less end the minimal chance he’d leave Tampa Bay. It certainly doesn’t seem as if the Rays are interested in making a change. President of baseball operations Erik Neander called this season “the best job (Cash has) ever done here,” as the team won 99 games despite losing Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen to injury and placing Wander Franco on the restricted list in August. Topkin writes the club is likely to approach Cash about another extension during the offseason.

As a result of Francona’s retirement, Cash is now the longest-tenured active manager in the major leagues. He took over for Joe Maddon in December 2014. Tampa Bay is 739-614 (54.5% win percentage) in the regular season during his tenure, qualifying for the postseason in each of the last five years. They’ve advanced past the first round just once, securing the American League pennant in 2020 before falling to the Dodgers in the World Series. Cash finished top three in Manager of the Year balloting each season from 2018-21 and could well be a finalist again this year.

Rays Notes: Glasnow, Margot, Ohtani, Caminero

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Every Rays offseason inevitably leads to trade rumors about their higher-salaried players, whether it’s players getting increasingly expensive through their arbitration years or players entering more expensive years of their current contracts.  The same should be true this winter, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes that Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot “seem likely to be in trade discussions” as the Rays try both manage their budget and maintain a competitive roster.

It isn’t a shock to see either player potentially shopped, especially since Tampa reportedly offered Margot to other teams as recently as the trade deadline.  Margot also drew some trade buzz during the 2021-22 offseason since 2022 was his final year of salary arbitration, but the Rays not only avoided an arb hearing by agreeing to a salary with Margot for 2022, but they also inked him to a two-year, $19MM extension with a $12MM club option for 2025.

Glasnow’s own extension with the Rays only seemed to create more trade speculation, rather than security about his future in St. Petersburg.  The right-hander signed his two-year, $30.35MM extension in August 2022, just over a year after the right-hander underwent a Tommy John surgery that cost him almost the entire 2022 season.  The deal broke down as a $5.35MM salary in 2023 (essentially what Glasnow would’ve earned anyway via arbitration salary) and then a whopping $25MM for 2024.

Essentially since the moment that deal was announced, many have expected that the Rays would look to trade Glasnow before that $25MM bill came due.  That dollar figure might not scare off many teams as a one-year splurge, given how Glasnow returned to mostly good health and delivered a strong season.  An oblique strain cost Glasnow the first two months of the 2023 campaign, but he posted a 3.53 ERA, 51.2% grounder rate, and an elite 33.4% strikeout rate over 120 innings.

Of course, the Rays themselves might view $25MM as a good investment for a top-of-the-rotation arm, especially given the other injury problems in Tampa Bay’s rotation.  Glasnow and Zach Eflin project as the Rays’ top two pitchers, with Taj Bradley penciled into the rotation for at least the start of the season, Shane Baz returning from Tommy John surgery, Drew Rasmussen (elbow brace surgery) and Jeffrey Springs (TJ surgery) both expected back at midseason, and Shane McClanahan very likely missing the year altogether due to yet another TJ procedure.  Given how all these injuries hampered the Rays this year, Tampa might feel comfortable in just keeping Glasnow and then getting draft compensation back next winter via the qualifying offer, or perhaps even a midseason trade if the Rays are out of the race.

If Glasnow is retained and the Rays looked to trim payroll elsewhere, moving Margot seems like a natural place to start, as he is owed $12MM in 2024 ($10MM salary, $2MM buyout of his 2025 option).  Margot generally been a slightly below-average hitter during his eight MLB seasons, with his .264/.310/.376 slash line over 336 plate appearances in 2023 basically matching his career numbers.  Margot’s speed and defense have helped his value beyond the middling offense, though the public metrics indicated a dropoff in his center field glovework in 2023, even if his right field numbers were still solid.  Margot’s playing time has also been limited by some injuries over the last two years, as well as the Rays’ natural penchant for outfield platoons.

Perhaps especially if Tampa Bay feels Margot has lost a step or two defensively, he might be an expendable piece of a crowded Rays outfield.  Josh Lowe and Jose Siri could take over the center field platoon, and prospects like Kameron Misner or Chandler Simpson might also be nearing their big league debuts.  Margot’s trade market might be somewhat limited by his 2023 performance, though with a thin free agent market for position players, any outfield help might get some extra interest this particular winter.

Turning from possible Rays trades to some moves that didn’t happen, Tampa Bay was known to have interest in Shohei Ohtani this past summer, even though it seemed like the Angels had little to no interest in actually dealing the two-way star.  That didn’t stop several teams from floating offers, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that Tampa offered Junior Caminero and two other top-10 prospects in exchange for the final two months of Ohtani’s 2023 season.

It would’ve been a big price for a rental player, yet not out of line for a player of Ohtani’s stature and unique all-around ability.  Of course, no trade happened, and the Rays probably don’t have many regrets considering how Ohtani’s partial UCL tear prematurely ended his pitching season in August, and an oblique strain then ended his season altogether a couple of weeks later.

29 Players Elect Free Agency

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October brings postseason play for a handful of teams and their fanbases. Just over two-thirds of the league is now in offseason mode after being eliminated, however. As the season comes to a close, a number of veterans will hit minor league free agency.

These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. The first group, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

AL Postseason Injury Notes: Buxton, Raley, Hernández

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As expected, Byron Buxton will not be available for the Wild Card round of the 2023 MLB postseason. The Twins revealed their postseason roster on Tuesday morning, and the All-Star outfielder/DH was a notable omission. Buxton has not played in a major league game since August 1, although he attempted a couple of brief rehab stints at Triple-A in August and September. The former Gold Glover is dealing with a strained hamstring in addition to ongoing trouble with his right knee.

Reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) noticed Buxton wasn’t on the field yesterday for a team workout, which was a strong indication he wouldn’t be ready to play on Tuesday. Presumably, he will continue to prepare in hopes he can rejoin the team later in October, should the Twins advance.

In happier news, both Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa were named to the postseason roster. Neither had played since mid-September. Correa confirmed on Monday he would be ready to go for the Wild Card round, but Lewis was less optimistic. Thankfully for Minnesota, the two-time All-Star and the rookie sensation have both been cleared to play. The Twins could use all hands on deck as they look to break their 18-game postseason losing streak.

In other injury news from the AL postseason field…

  • In unfortunate but not entirely surprising news, Luke Raley has been left off the Rays’ roster for the first round of the playoffs. The breakout slugger for Tampa Bay hasn’t played since September 20 after suffering a cervical strain a few days prior. The team could surely use his lefty bat against the Rangers, but with limited space on the postseason roster, the Rays weren’t going to rush him back until he could contribute on a daily basis (according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). In better news for Tampa Bay, Jose Siri will be available for the Wild Card round. The power-hitting center fielder hasn’t played since he fractured his hand on September 11.
  • Right-handed reliever Jonathan Hernández has been left off the Rangers’ roster for the Wild Card round as he nurses a shoulder injury. In 33 games this year, he pitched to a 5.40 ERA and a 4.11 SIERA in 31 2/3 innings. However, he looked much better in September following an optional assignment to Triple-A, posting a 2.89 ERA and a 2.67 SIERA in eight appearances. In other Rangers news, Ezequiel Duran has also been left off the roster, although not for injury-related reasons. The young utility player started the season off strong but struggled down the stretch, slashing .206/.229/.265 over the final month of the year.

Erasmo Ramirez Clears Waivers

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TODAY: Erasmo Ramirez has cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment, the Rays announced. He will report to the team’s alternate training site in Sarasota, where he will be available in case he’s needed as an injury replacement for the postseason.

SATURDAY: The Rays announced that right-hander Erasmo Ramirez has been designated for assignment.  Right-hander Cooper Criswell was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding transaction.

After first pitching for the Rays during the 2015-17 seasons, Ramirez made his return to Tampa when he signed a minor league deal with the club back in June.  He has been on the MLB roster since the end of July, and has a 6.48 ERA over 33 1/3 innings and 15 appearances in a Rays uniform this season.  This includes a tough outing yesterday, when Ramirez allowed six runs (four earned) over three innings in a long relief effort in the Rays’ 11-4 loss to the Blue Jays.

Ramirez’s numbers with the Rays aren’t much different than the 6.33 ERA he posted in 27 innings with the Nationals to begin the season, before Washington DFA’ed and then released the 33-year-old in June.  It was just last year that Ramirez seemingly resurrected his career with a 2.92 ERA over 86 1/3 innings for the Nats, but the veteran now finds himself once more looking to turn a new page.

Ramirez will surely clear waivers and might end up being released again, since it didn’t seem like he was going to be part of Tampa Bay’s postseason roster plans.  In the event that Ramirez clears waivers and is then outrighted off the 40-man roster, he has more than enough service time to reject a Triple-A assignment and choose free agency anyway, so it could be that he’ll be getting a jump on the rest of the free agent market.

Now in his 12th MLB season, Ramirez has mostly worked in a swingman capacity, able to both step into a rotation on occasion or just soak up innings as a long reliever.  Ramirez has pitched with six different teams at the Major League level, mostly with the Rays (356 2/3 innings) and the Mariners (314 1/3).

AL East Notes: Judge, Yankees, Rays, Siri, Raley, Cora

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Aaron Judge spoke with MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch and other reporters about what the Yankees should do differently in 2024, including “some bigger picture ideas and philosophies that I think maybe need to change.”  The communication of analytical information seems to be one of Judge’s sticking points, since the slugger has no issue with the use of analytics themselves.  “The Yankees are top-notch in the numbers we get.  I think we’re the best in the game at that,” Judge said.  “I think it’s about funneling those down to the players in the right format….I think it’s just looking at the right numbers.  I think maybe we might be looking at the wrong ones.  We need to value some other ones that people might see as having no value.”

The reigning AL MVP also put some pressure on the clubhouse, saying “I think a level of urgency and an understanding [is needed that] just because you get to the big leagues and you get to New York, you’ve still got to improve.  You’ve still got to make adjustments.”  Judge gave a full endorsement of Aaron Boone as the club’s manager, though as Hoch put it, “Judge was less effusive” in speaking about GM Brian Cashman in comparison to his praise of Boone.

More from the AL East…

  • Jose Siri and Luke Raley are expected to participate in a live batting practice on Monday, Rays manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times).  Siri hasn’t played since September 11 after his right hand was fractured by a pitch, and Raley has been on the 10-day injured list since September 21 due to a cervical strain suffered a few days prior.  Tomorrow’s BP session should indicate whether or not either player might factor into the Rays’ roster for their Wild Card Series matchup with Texas.  If neither can play, Topkin speculates that the Rays might add both of Junior Caminero and Osleivis Basabe, and possibly Francisco Mejia as a third catcher.
  • Red Sox manager Alex Cora indicated two weeks ago that he didn’t have interest in moving into the front office, possibly as the team’s new head of baseball operations.  Cora reiterated this stance more directly today with reporters (including WEEI’s Rob Bradford), and said “I was very honest with the front office…and said, I’m not ready to do that.  I’m not ready.  If I felt that I think I can do that job I would probably tell them hey, I would like to be part of the process — or not the process of but one of the candidates.  But I’m not ready for that.”  However, Cora did say that he’ll have some level of influence in the eventual decision to find Chaim Bloom’s replacement.

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

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Both the playoff field and the first-round matchups now have been set, so we can get on with deciding who’s going to be holding the Commissioner’s Trophy by the end of the World Series.  After 162 games (well, give or take a Marlins/Mets game that will now be scrapped entirely), the list of contenders has been narrowed to a dozen teams.

The Braves led all of baseball with 104 wins, and their spectacular lineup tied a Major League record with 307 home runs.  Leading the league almost across the board in significant offensive categories this season, Atlanta boasts MVP favorite Ronald Acuna Jr. as their top player, yet the incredible depth of the everyday lineup is a nightmare for opposing pitchers.  Injuries to Max Fried and Charlie Morton have left some questions about the readiness of the staff heading into the playoffs, but if Atlanta’s games start turning into slugfests, the Braves are more than well-equipped for that type of baseball.

Despite a huge swath of injuries to their pitching staff, the Dodgers still finished 100-62 and won the NL West.  It was the fifth time in the last six 162-game seasons that L.A. hit the 100-win threshold, and the Dodgers have now won 10 of the last 11 division titles.  All of that success, of course, has netted “only” one World Series title (in 2020) to date, and it will be up to Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to keep carrying the offense while the somewhat makeshift pitching staff will try to produce quality innings.

The Orioles went from 110 losses in 2021 to 101 wins this season, winning the AL East for the first time since 2014.  Baltimore’s extensive rebuild led to a new wave of young talent (i.e. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez) providing a quick impact, while roster holdovers and unexpected hidden gems like Ryan O’Hearn all kept producing for a well-rounded team.  The rotation is either a question mark or perhaps just underrated heading into October, and the O’s want to leave no doubt that their team is for real.

The Astros went into the final series of the season not even knowing if they’d be in the playoffs at all, yet Houston ended up with a first-round bye and their sixth AL West crown in seven seasons.  The defending World Series champs have weathered a lot of pitching injuries and a bit more inconsistency than usual from their lineup, yet if any team knows how to turn up the volume in the postseason, it’s the Astros.

These four teams will get first-round byes, while the other two division champions and the six wild-card teams will have to survive the best-of-three first round.  The AL Central champion Twins and the sixth-seeded Blue Jays will meet in the postseason for the first time since 1991, with Toronto trying to win its first playoff game since 2016 and Minnesota trying to end an unfathomable 0-18 record in playoff games dating back to 2004.  Both the Twins and Jays have relied on recipes of strong starting pitching, solid bullpen work and (especially in Toronto’s case) excellent defense, while the offense has been much more hit-and-miss for each club.  A low-scoring series wouldn’t be a surprise, making things a tossup even though the Twins have the home-field advantage.

The Rays and Rangers spent a good chunk of the season looking like they’d sail to division titles, yet the two clubs will now meet in the Wild Card Series.  Tampa Bay’s ever-deep farm system just kept churning out MLB-ready talent, allowing the Rays to stay steady and win 99 games despite an injury-depleted pitching staff.  Texas had greater issues managing pitching injuries and a very leaky bullpen, and though the Rangers still ended up with 90 wins and a playoff berth, the Rangers’ relief corps stands out as perhaps the biggest weak link of any postseason team.

The Brewers went 92-70 to book their fifth trip to the playoffs in six seasons, with three of those trips coming via the NL Central title.  With a 35-20 record since August 1, Milwaukee has been somewhat quietly marching towards the playoffs in top form, even if scoring runs is still at something of a premium for a team powered by its hurlers.  The Diamondbacks have just about the opposite problem, as they’ll head into the playoffs with a -15 run differential and a season-long problem with rotation depth.  But, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly can be a problem in a short series, and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll will get his first taste of the postseason spotlight.

The Phillies and Marlins meet in an all-NL East edition of the Wild Card Series, with Miami holding a 7-6 head-to-head edge in regular-season play.  After falling short in last year’s World Series, the Phillies are looking to make another run through the entire bracket, setting up the dynamic of a seasoned, veteran squad against an upstart Marlins club who are in the playoffs following a full 162-game season for the first time since 2003.  A huge 33-13 record in one-run games helped Miami reach the postseason despite a -56 run differential — by contrast, Philadelphia was +81.

Looking at the list of twelve, who is your pick to win it all? (poll link for app users)

AL East Notes: Volpe, Martin, Siri

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It’s been an up-and-down rookie season for Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe, who made the Opening Day roster and has stuck as the club’s everyday shortstop despite offensive struggles. Overall, he’s slashed .207/.283/.383 in 587 plate appearances this year while manning shortstop in 153 of the club’s games so far this year. Defensive metrics disagree on his glovework this year, with Statcast’s Fielding Run Value placing Volpe tenth among fifteen shortstops with at least 1,000 innings of work with a +1 figure, while Fielding Bible’s Defensive Runs Saved places him behind only Dansby Swanson in that same group.

According to SNY’s Andy Martino, the Yankees are pondering Volpe’s role headed into the 2024 season thanks to Oswald Peraza, who scouting reports typically grade as the superior defensive shortstop of the two, with Martino suggesting the club’s best defensive alignment involves Volpe at second base with Peraza at shortstop. Perhaps the biggest obstacle to such a change would be Gleyber Torres, the club’s incumbent second baseman. Torres has no defensive experience outside of the middle infield, but has been the club’s best hitter in 2023 this side of Aaron Judge with a solid .272/.345/.455 slash line.

Given Torres’s importance to the club this year, it’s hard to imagine the Yankees displacing him to accommodate Peraza, who has yet to establish himself with the bat in the majors. After all, Peraza has slashed just .194/.275/.275 in 178 trips to the plate in the majors this year, though his .268/.357/.479 slash line in 300 Triple-A plate appearances this year could indicate another level to the 23-year-old youngster’s game.

More from around the AL East…

  • Prior to today’s game in Baltimore, the Red Sox placed veteran right-hander Chris Martin on the 15-day injured list with a viral infection. Right-hander Nick Robertson was recalled in a corresponding move. The move closes the book on what has been a sensational season for Martin after he signed with the Red Sox on a two-year, $17.5MM deal this past offseason. In 51 1/3 innings of work this year, Martin sports an astonishing 1.05 ERA that leads the majors among pitchers with at least 30 innings of work, just barely edging out Josh Hader’s 1.16 figure. Martin figures to be a key piece of the Boston bullpen headed into the 2024 campaign.
  • The Rays received good news yesterday regarding center fielder Jose Siri, according to MLB.com. Siri, who suffered a fractured right hand after being hit by a pitch earlier this month, underwent imaging earlier this week and received encouraging results, with manager Kevin Cash indicating that Siri could resume baseball activities as soon as today in an effort to return to the club this postseason. Siri has combined excellent outfield defense with a solid bat this season, slashing .222/.267/.494 with 25 home runs in 364 trips to the plate.
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