Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

Will the White Sox move past the black eye of the Tony La Russa hiring and upgrade the team in a bid for the first back-to-back playoff appearances in franchise history?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yasmani Grandal, C: Three years, $54.75MM
  • Dallas Keuchel, SP: Two years, $37.5MM.  Includes $20MM club/vesting option for 2023
  • Jose Abreu, 1B: Two years, $34MM
  • Tim Anderson, SS: Two years, $17.75MM.  Includes $12.5MM club option for 2023 and $14MM club option for 2024
  • Leury Garcia, IF/OF: One year, $3.5MM
  • Eloy Jimenez, LF: Four years, $35.5MM.  Includes $16.5MM club option for 2025 and $18.5MM club option for 2026
  • Yoan Moncada, 3B: Four years, $65MM.  Includes $25MM club option for 2025
  • Luis Robert, CF: Five years, $48.5MM.  Includes $20MM club options for 2026 and ’27
  • Aaron Bummer, RP: Four years, $15MM.  Includes $7.25MM club option for 2025 and $7.5MM club option for 2026

Arbitration Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Exercised $3.5MM club option on IF Leury Garcia
  • Declined $12MM club option on DH Edwin Encarnacion
  • Declined $7MM club option on SP Gio Gonzalez

Free Agents

The rebuild is officially over.  The White Sox reached the playoffs this year for the first time since 2008, falling to the A’s in the three-game Wild Card series.  Eleven days later, the team fired manager Rick Renteria and longtime pitching coach Don Cooper.  When GM Rick Hahn told reporters the ideal managerial candidate would have “recent October experience with a championship organization,” the club initially seemed primed to hire A.J. Hinch or Alex Cora.

Instead, it became clear that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf had his heart set on righting what he saw as a 34-year-old wrong, bringing back Tony La Russa as manager.  La Russa began his managerial career with the White Sox in 1979 and was fired in 1986, after which he achieved legendary status and Hall of Fame induction for his work at the helm of the A’s and Cardinals.  La Russa had retired from managing after his 2011 Cardinals won it all, taking on front office roles for the Diamondbacks, Red Sox, and Angels.  So much for “recent” October experience.  The White Sox didn’t interview Hinch or Cora; their second choice was former Giants and Padres skipper Bruce Bochy, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan said it well regarding the hire: “He inherits a team brimming with young, dynamic talent — a team that, in many ways, represents a new epoch of baseball whose principles and priorities run antithetical to La Russa’s.”  I still felt that the talented White Sox players would be able to overcome that apparent mismatch.  But then came news of La Russa’s February DUI arrest, of which the White Sox were aware before hiring him.  La Russa already had a 2007 DUI on his record.  To this point, a Twitter campaign from some White Sox fans has not convinced La Russa to step down or Reinsdorf to move on.  Reinsdorf hasn’t commented on the matter, and the team’s statement was sparse.  The entire situation is a black eye for the team of Reinsdorf’s doing, but he doesn’t seem to care.  Perhaps one day the White Sox will run through a normal managerial hiring process.

At any rate, hiring La Russa certainly suggests the team will take further steps to improve in the short-term after an active 2019-20 offseason and successful shortened 2020 campaign.  So, what does the team need?  Right field stands out, after Nomar Mazara struggled in his 149 plate appearances.  Though he doesn’t turn 26 until April, Mazara will likely be non-tendered.  The best option in free agency is George Springer, who will likely command a contract in excess of $100MM even in a depressed market.  Even for a lineup that already skews right-handed, Springer would be a huge addition for the White Sox as a 31-year-old five-WAR type player.  And there’s hardly a concern with Springer hitting right-handed pitching, against which he has a 139 wRC+ since 2018.  But with Reinsdorf on record claiming losses “in the nine figures,” will he really go for one of the winter’s most expensive free agents?

There are more affordable options, of course, such as signing Joc Pederson to platoon with Adam Engel in right field.  Hahn could also try the trade market, which could include Joey Gallo and Wil Myers.  The Sox don’t seem to be in a position to acquire a bounceback candidate, but Gregory Polanco, Hunter Renfroe, and Dexter Fowler likely wouldn’t be hard to pry loose.  Adam Eaton is a free agent, but there’s a lot of history there and not much upside.  The White Sox could also look to get creative and acquire a player who hasn’t played much or any right field, such as Andrew Benintendi, Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham, Michael Brantley, Brett Gardner, Jackie Bradley Jr., Jurickson Profar, or Mark Canha.  In some cases it would result in shaky corner outfield defense, but at least they have a Gold Glove center fielder in Luis Robert.

With 2019 third overall pick Andrew Vaughn basically penciled into a first base/DH rotation with Jose Abreu, right field seems the only clear place for the White Sox to upgrade on the position player side.  Certainly the team could hold off for most of 2021 on Vaughn, who has yet to see Double-A pitching, but the team’s brass seems to think he’s close to ready after spending 2020 at the team’s alternate site.  If they were to wait with Vaughn, perhaps players like Nelson Cruz or Michael Brantley would become more viable.

What about the starting rotation?  As James Fegan of The Athletic put it, “October revealed a need for upgrades at the top, not the back end,” after the team was forced to try a bullpen game in Game 3 of the Wild Card series.  At the top end of the market sits Trevor Bauer, though he’d likely require most of the team’s available payroll space.  There’s also the question of whether Bauer would be impressed with La Russa, but the better question might be how he’d gel with new pitching coach Ethan Katz.  Katz was Lucas Giolito’s pitching coach in high school and had a hand in his turnaround in 2019.  If the White Sox are willing to spend the money and let Bauer pitch every fourth day, they’d certainly have a shot.

If the White Sox consider Bauer out of their price range, they could look at a collection of free agent starters who could slot into their hypothetical playoff rotation: James Paxton, Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, and Charlie Morton.  The first three have to prove they’re healthy, while Morton may have geographical preferences that don’t include Chicago.  A market limited on October-worthy starters may require considering lower-ceiling free agents like Masahiro Tanaka, or hitting the trade market in pursuit of players like Lance Lynn or German Marquez.  The White Sox don’t necessarily need to make a major move in the rotation, with Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Dylan Cease, and Dane Dunning penciled in and Michael Kopech expected to rejoin the team in spring training.

Like just about any playoff hopeful, the White Sox could look to augment their bullpen.  With Colome hitting free agency, the team has several interesting young arms but lacks veteran depth.  Overall, the White Sox could have over $30MM to work with if they maintain last year’s payroll, but that’s no sure thing.

Thus far, the White Sox have done an excellent job locking up their core pieces to position themselves for sustained success.  They have four more years of control of Anderson, and at least five of Robert, Moncada, Jimenez, Vaughn, and Nick Madrigal.  On the pitching side, ace Lucas Giolito is under control through 2023 as an arbitration eligible player.  Giolito is primed for his first multi-million dollar payday in his first trip through arbitration this winter, though there’s great uncertainty as to how salaries will be affected by the 60-game season.  I have a feeling the White Sox would jump at something close to Aaron Nola‘s four-year, $45MM contract.

Aside from the La Russa hire, the White Sox could hardly be in a better position heading into 2021.  The club would be well-served to bring in a few more impact players this winter, especially with the majority of teams expected to be conservative.

Free Agent Notes: Kendrick, Ozuna, ChiSox, Braves, Kahnle

Infielder Howie Kendrick has been noncommittal about his long-term playing status, suggesting in September he could step away from the game after 15 MLB seasons.  However, Kendrick seemed to hint in an Instagram post this afternoon (h/t to Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic) that he is planning to continue his career, along with firmly indicating that he will continue his charitable endeavors off the field.  “What a season!  Proud to partner with Bank of America and Boys & Girls Clubs of America to help fuel rallies all season long and make a difference for kids in our communities.  See you all next year,” Kendrick wrote.

The Nationals declined their 2021 club option on Kendrick’s services, making the former World Series hero a free agent.  Kendrick only hit .275/.320/.385 with two home runs across 100 plate appearances in 2020, but he’s just a year removed from an elite season at the plate.  A return to Washington wouldn’t seem to be out of the question, and surely other teams would have some interest in signing a veteran with Kendrick’s track record.

More on some other available players…

  • Marcell Ozuna‘s free agent market is explored by an MLB.com panel of Mark Bowman, Alyson Footer, Scott Merkin, and Jesse Sanchez, with a particular focus on the White Sox (Merkin’s team on the beat) and Braves (Ozuna’s most recent team, and Bowman’s beat).  The White Sox had some interest in Ozuna last winter but now might be looking for more of a full-time outfielder, Merkin says, since star prospect Andrew Vaughn is expected to step into the first base/DH mix alongside Jose Abreu at some point in 2021.  Since Ozuna profiles more as a DH over the long term, the Braves might have some hesitation over bringing Ozuna back since it isn’t yet known if the National League will adopt the designated hitter for 2021.  However, Bowman also notes that Ozuna quickly became a valued figure in Atlanta due to both his production and clubhouse presence.  Early reports have already suggested that the Braves are interested in re-signing Ozuna, but at least nine other clubs have also inquired about his services.
  • Tommy Kahnle is weighing multiple two-year offers, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).  Kahnle underwent Tommy John surgery in early August, though it isn’t uncommon for recent TJ patients to still land multi-year deals on the open market.  In most of these cases, the player receives the bulk of the salary in the second year of the contract and a minimum salary in the first year, with the understanding that most or all of year one will be spent recovering from the surgery.  Kahnle, Heyman says, is hoping to return by the end of the 2021 season, which would be on the short end of the usual 12-15 month recovery timeline for Tommy John patients.

Jose Abreu Wins American League MVP

White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu has won the American League Most Valuable Player Award for 2020, as voted on by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Indians third baseman Jose Ramirez and Yankees second baseman DJ LeMahieu were the other finalists for the honor.

The 33-year-old Abreu has been an easily above-average hitter in the majors since he emigrated from Cuba before the 2014 season, though his contributions didn’t lead to much team success through the 2019 campaign. But the White Sox, knowing Abreu was a key piece of the puzzle, made the shrewd move to extend him for three years and $50MM last offseason, rather than let him depart in free agency.

Abreu repaid the White Sox in the first season of his new deal with a brilliant .317/.370/.617 line across 262 plate appearances. Among AL position players, he finished first in bWAR (2.8), second in home runs (19) and wRC+ (167), and third in fWAR (2.6). Abreu’s production helped the Sox to their first playoff berth since 2008, though the team fell to Oakland in the wild-card round. Beyond the bottom-line numbers, you can’t discount Abreu’s leadership, as he is regarded as one of the most respected clubhouse presences in baseball.

Abreu earned 21 of 30 first-place votes for the award. Ramirez came in second ahead of LeMahieu, while Indians right-hander Shane Bieber and three-time MVP-winning Angels center fielder Mike Trout rounded out the top five.

Latest On Tony La Russa, White Sox Coaching Staff

Newly minted White Sox manager Tony La Russa’s second stint with the team got off to an inauspicious start last week when he was charged with his second DUI. The White Sox stuck behind the 76-year-old Hall of Famer then, though, and aren’t currently looking to make a change in the dugout, Andrew Seligman of the Associated Press reports. However, that could change depending on the legal process.

“Tony deserves all the assumptions and protections granted to everyone in a court of law, especially while this is a pending matter,” the White Sox stated. “Once his case reaches resolution in the courts, we will have more to say. The White Sox understand the seriousness of these charges.”

La Russa was arrested in February in Arizona after registering a blood alcohol level of .095, which is above the legal limit of .08. Charges weren’t filed until Oct. 28. The White Sox were aware of the matter, but that didn’t stop them from bringing back La Russa, who’s friends with owner Jerry Reinsdorf and who previously managed the team from 1979-86.

If La Russa does keep his job, Ethan Katz will be his pitching coach, as Dave Williams of Barstool Sports first reported. The 37-year-old Katz, who will take over for longtime White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper, already has a connection with the team in ace Lucas Giolito. Katz was Giolito’s pitching coach at Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles and has spent recent offseasons continuing to work with Giolito. He has also had runs with multiple major league organizations (Angels, Mariners and Giants) and was most recently San Francisco’s assistant pitching coach.

Stroman: “No Amount Of Money” Would Convince Him To Play For La Russa

The White Sox’ decision to hire Tony La Russa as their new skipper was widely panned from the get-go, and last night’s revelation that the team knew he’d been charged with a second DUI prior to making the hire has only enhanced criticism. The La Russa hire, however, is now generating a negative reaction beyond fans and pundits.

After The Athletic’s Keith Law further criticized the White Sox last night on Twitter in light of the newest details, free-agent righty Marcus Stroman replied to call the decision “baffling on all measures.” Asked by a follower what type of contract it would take for Stroman to sign to play under La Russa, the pitcher replied: “No amount of money honestly. Peace of mind is always priority.”

Much has been made of whether La Russa will be able to connect with a younger generation of players, particularly in light of his vocal 2016 stance against Colin Kaepernick’s protests in the National Football League. La Russa seemed to double down on those comments earlier this year, fueling questions about how he’d be received by current White Sox players. Tim Anderson, who sits on the board of the Players Alliance, spoke of keeping an open mind but noted that although more than a week had elapsed since the hiring was announced, La Russa had yet to contact him.

The White Sox surely knew there’d be pushback against the initial La Russa decision — particularly considering they knew about the latest DUI that had yet to become public — but it’s unlikely they’d have anticipated such public rejection from a prominent free agent like Stroman. Still, Stroman didn’t mince his words, and it stands to reason that there are other free agents and other players who hold similar opinions (even if they don’t vocalize them).

A White Sox official told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale last night that La Russa would not lose his job and in fact wasn’t even in line to face any discipline from the organization, although Stroman’s comments only figure to place further pressure for some kind of action on owner Jerry Reinsdorf.

It’s become increasingly clear, after all, that the decision to hire La Russa came solely from Reinsdorf and was not well-received elsewhere in the organization. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that Reinsdorf turned the “La Russa Express into a runaway train,” adding that White Sox executives were “unable to stop their owner from bringing his longtime friend back into the organization.”

Quick Hits: M. Kelly, Angels, Royals, Shoemaker, Crochet

D-backs righty Merrill Kelly is on the mend after undergoing thoracic outlet surgery and tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that to this point, the rehab process has been “way easier than I could have ever imagined.” Kelly expects to begin a throwing program later this month and struck a generally upbeat chord when discussing his future and his recovery process.

Thoracic outlet surgery has been a dagger to many careers in recent years, as the track record of successful returns from TOS is considerably smaller than with other major procedures like Tommy John surgery. That said, there have been some notable success stories, including Chris Young and Jaime Garcia. Tyson Ross had a nice 2018 campaign after 2016 TOS, and Royals righty Kyle Zimmer, who also had TOS surgery a few years ago, posted what looked like a breakout campaign in 2020.

The D-backs picked up a $4.25MM club option on Kelly for the 2021 season and hold a $5.25MM option on him for the 2022 campaign. Since coming over from the KBO following the 2018 season, Kelly has a 4.15 ERA with 7.8 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 in 214 2/3 innings (37 starts).

A few more notes from around the league…

  • The Angels’ search for a general manager is down “to no more than three candidates,” though the names aren’t known, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. That’s a significant drop-off for a team that has reportedly considered 14 candidates to replace the fired Billy Eppler. The Angels figure to complete a new round of interviews by the end of next week and should have a GM by Thanksgiving, according to Morosi.
  • More from Morosi, who reports (on Twitter) that the Royals have shown interest in free-agent righty Matt Shoemaker. They join the previously reported Red Sox in that regard. Injuries have limited Shoemaker during his Angels/Blue Jays career, which began in 2013, but he has been pretty effective when healthy enough to pitch. Shoemaker owns a 3.86 ERA/4.03 FIP with 8.07 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 602 1/3 innings.
  • Left-hander Garrett Crochet gave the White Sox a scare when he was pulled from a postseason game following a velocity dip and subsequently diagnosed with a flexor strain. However, the 2020 first-rounder tells MLB.com’s Scott Merkin that he’s now pain-free after some down time and, after a recent wave of tests, is set up to commence an offseason throwing program at his new home in Arizona. The organization hasn’t yet set a role for the flamethrower, but Crochet adds that he’s comfortable working as a starter or reliever and is merely focused on gaining more pro experience in 2021. The 21-year-old Crochet skyrocketed from the University of Tennessee to the Majors in a span of a couple months, holding opponents scoreless through 6 2/3 innings — postseason and regular season combined — and whiffing 10 of the 24 batters he faced.

Tony La Russa Charged With DUI Stemming From February Arrest

9:35pm: A White Sox official told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that La Russa will neither lose his job nor face any discipline from the team.

8:28pm: Newly named White Sox manager Tony La Russa was arrested on suspicion of driving under the influence in the Phoenix area last February, Jeff Passan and Paula Lavigne of ESPN.com report. La Russa allegedly crashed into a curb and had a “light odor of alcoholic beverage,” according to the peace officer who responded to the call. He was “argumentative” when taken into custody, per the officer.

Maricopa County in Arizona officially filed DUI charges against La Russa on Oct. 28, one day before the White Sox hired him as their new manager. The White Sox knew about the arrest at the time, club spokesman Scott Reifert said (via Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic). He could face up to 10 days in jail if convicted.

This is the second DUI for La Russa, who was arrested in 2007 when he was the Cardinals’ skipper. He led the Cardinals for five more seasons after that and ended his tenure with a World Series championship in 2011. La Russa went into temporary retirement after that, though he then worked in multiple front offices prior to taking the Chicago job.

This is certainly not the start to the La Russa tenure that the White Sox had in mind when they rehired the Hall of Famer (he previously managed the team from 1979-86). Whether Major League Baseball will discipline him in any way is unknown.

James McCann On Free Agency

James McCann is headed to the free agent market under much different circumstances than last time around. Non-tendered by the Tigers after a rough 2018 showing, McCann latched on with the White Sox and went on to give the South Siders a pair of very strong seasons — including an All-Star campaign in 2019. While he served as a backup to Yasmani Grandal in 2020, McCann still worked into the mix at DH in addition to his time behind the plate.

In an appearance on NBC Sports Chicago’s White Sox Talk podcast late last week (audio link), McCann discussed his return to the open market. Asked by host Chuck Garfien about how important it is for him to secure a starting role, McCann replied:

It’s something that I feel like I’ve earned in my career. I definitely think there is a lot that goes into that — being the guy and being able to run the staff. I do feel like that’s something that I’ve earned. But like I’ve said all along, I’m not burning any bridges, and we’ll see what the next few months hold.

McCann declined to delve into specifics when asked about potential clubs that might be fits or may have even already contacted him, instead just emphasizing the point that every team needs experienced catching.

While neither McCann or the White Sox is formally closing the door on their relationship, it seems hard to imagine a return scenario with Grandal signed for three more years. J.T. Realmuto is the top name on the open market, but McCann very arguably is the next-best alternative. He’s made huge strides both offensively and defensively since signing in Chicago, hitting a combined .276/.334/.474 with 25 homers in 587 plate appearances. He’s dramatically improved his exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate with the South Siders. After an offseason focused on improving his framing last winter, McCann posted career-best numbers in that department in 2020 en route to a Gold Glove nomination.

The White Sox obviously aren’t in the market for a starting catcher, but any of the Mets, Phillies, Rays, Angels, Rockies, Yankees, Nationals or Marlins could be expected to pursue upgrades over incumbent options. McCann declined to discuss contractual specifics, sidestepping a question about the possibility of taking a one-year deal in hopes of finding a stronger free-agent market next winter. “I think my play the last few years has put a value on me, and that’s where we are,” said McCann.

We at MLBTR ranked McCann as this offseason’s No. 16 free agent on our Top 50 rankings, with the team a two-year, $20MM contract prediction. It’s certainly possible that McCann could take home a three-year arrangement. He’ll be of particular interest for clubs that want an upgrade behind the plate but aren’t given ownership approval to pursue a mega-deal with Realmuto and/or may not want to try to lure a 38-year-old Yadier Molina away from St. Louis.

Quick Hits: Lindor, White Sox, Universal DH

Some news and notes from around the league:

  • The Indians are planning to trade Francisco Lindor this offseason, but there’s nothing imminent on that front. A Lindor trade isn’t going to happen quickly, hears Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). Morosi reiterates that Lindor will likely be on the move this winter, but Cleveland is expected to take their time as they explore the market. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently examined potential fits on that front.
  • The White Sox figure to be aggressive buyers this offseason, feels Buster Olney of ESPN. That’s not especially surprising. Chicago emerged from their rebuild to make the expanded playoffs in 2020. They then hired Tony La Russa as manager, reaffirming that the club is squarely in a contention mindset. The White Sox could stand to augment the rotation and address the corner outfield, where Nomar Mazara underwhelmed and looks like a non-tender candidate.
  • Olney also notes it remains “a safe bet” the universal designated hitter will wind up in place for 2021. Introducing the DH in the National League, like all of 2020’s COVID-inspired rule changes, was a one-year measure. MLB and the MLB Players Association would need to come to a new agreement to put the NL DH in play for 2021, but that seems likely “unless the MLB and players’ union animus erupts to the point of complete dysfunction,” Olney argues. Regardless of the DH’s status next season, it’s widely expected the universal DH will become a permanent feature in the next collective bargaining agreement, which will need to be negotiated next offseason.

Tigers Hire Chris Fetter As Pitching Coach

11:37 am: The Tigers have officially announced the hirings of Fetter and Nieves. Additionally, quality control coach Josh Paul and base coach Ramon Santiago will return to the staff, per the team.

9:06 am: Detroit is also set to hire Juan Nieves as assistant pitching coach, reports Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic (via Twitter). Previously a member of the White Sox, Red Sox and Marlins’ MLB staffs, Nieves had most recently been pitching coach for Detroit’s Triple-A affiliate in Toledo.

8:05 am: The Tigers are hiring Chris Fetter as their pitching coach, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). The 34-year-old had been in the same position at the University of Michigan, one of the better Division I programs in the country. He’ll replace Rick Anderson, who had been on the Detroit staff since 2017 but was expected to depart after former manager Ron Gardenhire retired.

Fetter will become the first addition to new skipper A.J. Hinch’s staff in Detroit. He joins a growing rank of young, data-oriented pitching coaches making the jump from the top of the college ranks into pro ball. Reds’ pitching coach Derek Johnson was on the staff at Vanderbilt before taking a position in the Cubs’ system in 2012. He parlayed his stint as a Chicago minor-league pitching coordinator into eventual big league coaching jobs with the Brewers and Reds. Twins pitching coach Wes Johnson, meanwhile, made the jump directly from college to an MLB staff when he was hired away from the University of Arkansas in 2018.

Fetter himself interviewed for the Yankees’ pitching coach position last offseason. He also reportedly drew the attention of the Mets and Giants over the winter. He does have some experience coaching in pro ball, working in the Padres’ organization earlier this decade. As Morosi notes, that stint overlapped with Hinch’s time in the San Diego front office.

The hiring is also notable for one of the Tigers’ divisional rivals. Morosi points out that some in the White Sox’s front office thought he’d be the best fit for their pitching coach vacancy. Instead, he’ll take the same position in Detroit, where he’ll be tasked with guiding the development of top young arms like Casey MizeTarik Skubal and Matt Manning.

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