Report: “Industry Expectation” That Clayton Kershaw Will Return To Dodgers
For months, it has been widely anticipated that Clayton Kershaw‘s next destination will be one of the Dodgers or Rangers. Buster Olney of ESPN hears (Twitter link) “heavy industry expectation” the three-time Cy Young Award winner will be returning to Los Angeles.
Kershaw has kept his plans for the 2022 season fairly quiet, although at last check, it sounded as if he intended to continue playing. That wasn’t a given at the outset of the offseason, though. The Dodgers made the surprising decision not to issue Kershaw an $18.9MM qualifying offer, and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman suggested that decision was to give the eight-time All-Star more time to mull his future.
I know (Kershaw) wants to take a little time with (his wife) Ellen and figure out what’s best for them and also more importantly, get to a point where he feels good health wise. We have no reason to believe that he won’t,” Friedman said in November. Los Angeles’ lead executive made clear the decision not to tag Kershaw with a QO wasn’t at all motivated by the team not wanting him to return in 2022. “We’ve made it very clear that if Kersh wants to come back, he will always have a spot with what he’s meant to this organization — not just looking back but with what we think he can do for us next year.”
Kershaw has already cemented himself as one of the greatest pitchers in both franchise and major league history. He’s won five ERA titles in Dodger Blue, posting a sub-3.00 mark in eleven of his last thirteen seasons. Last year’s 3.55 figure was his highest since his 2008 rookie season. That that kind of still-impressive run prevention was Kershaw’s worst in thirteen years is remarkable, and his underlying numbers reinforce that he remains a very valuable pitcher.
Last season, Kershaw struck out a lofty 29.5% of batters faced while walking a minuscule 4.3% of opponents. His 16.7% swinging strike rate was a personal best, the number one mark in the league among pitchers with 100+ innings. Kershaw ranked sixth in strikeout/walk rate differential (25.2 percentage points) and fifth in SIERA (3.10). That’s top-of-the-rotation caliber production on a rate basis, although his market has been clouded by a late-season health scare.
The southpaw missed two months between July and September due to inflammation in his elbow/forearm area. He returned to make a few starts but dealt with renewed discomfort in his final regular season outing. That forced him to undergo a season-ending platelet-rich plasma injection, although he avoided surgery and has generally been expected to be a full-go for the start of the upcoming campaign.
Plenty of teams would be in touch with Kershaw’s reps at Excel Sports Management were he shopping his services around the league. However, there’s never been any indication he’s considering signing anywhere other than the Dodgers — with whom he’s spent his entire career — or his hometown Rangers. Texas, which is managed by former Dodgers coach Chris Woodward, has been open about their desire to bring him back to the Dallas area. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News wrote last night that Texas had the payroll flexibility to make a run at both Kershaw and A’s first baseman Matt Olson, two players whom the club apparently regards as special targets. However, it has always seemed that Kershaw’s decision would come down to his preferred fit more than the amount of dollars teams would put on the table.
Braves, Rangers, Yankees Interested In Matt Olson
3:45pm: The Braves have also been in contact about Olson, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets. Atlanta’s interest in Olson also dates back to before the lockout, as the World Series champs were exploring a potential fallback plan for first base if Freddie Freeman signed elsewhere.
9:09am: The Yankees considered the Athletics’ asking price prior to the lockout far too high, tweets SNY’s Andy Martino, who adds that the Yanks made clear they would not include top shortstop prospect Anthony Volpe in a potential deal.
7:45am: The lockout is over, and in the coming days, the dam will break on a historic flood of transactions. Athletics first baseman Matt Olson headlines a deep class of trade targets and serves as the focal point of a prospective Athletics fire sale, which GM David Forst alluded to back in November when acknowledging that the team would have to listen to trade offers on the majority of its roster this winter. It’s already known that the Rangers and Yankees are among the teams with interest in Olson, but their efforts to acquire him can now resume in earnest.
Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports that the Rangers planned to reach out to the A’s shortly after the lockout lifted to rekindle talks. Texas, however, would need to be confident in its ability to sign Olson to a contract extension before making a deal, per Grant. That’s sensible, as even after spending a half-billion dollars to sign Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, the Rangers are still a ways from contending. Olson is only controlled another two seasons, and if a playoff run in 2022 isn’t a legitimate possibility, then the prospect of really only having Olson for one year of earnest contention would make the sky-high prospect price perhaps unpalatable.
As for the Yankees, Newsday’s Erik Boland tweets that Olson is their preferred option for an upgrade at first base. The Yanks currently have Luke Voit (a trade candidate himself) and DJ LeMahieu as in-house options, but Voit is coming off an injury-marred season and doesn’t have nearly the same defensive prowess as Olson. LeMahieu is looking for a rebound at the plate himself and is better deployed as a second baseman or third baseman, where his glove carries more value. As we explored during the lockout, there are plenty of options for the Yankees, who have also been rumored to have varying degrees of interest in free agents Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo.
With regard to the Rangers, it shouldn’t be assumed that they’ll be in on Freeman or Rizzo if they miss out on Olson. Grant characterizes Olson and lefty Clayton Kershaw as something of specialty targets for the Rangers, suggesting that if they’re not successful in acquiring one or both players, there may only be an additional $10-15MM in total spending for Texas this winter. Absent a deal for Olson, the Rangers would likely turn first base back over to Nathaniel Lowe, who had a solid year at the plate in 2021 (.264/.357/.415, 18 homers).
Texas and New York will be just two of a wide swath of teams interested in prying Olson away from Oakland. The Braves are known to have some interest as well but would probably only make a strike to acquire Olson if they know for certain that Freeman is headed elsewhere. Freeman, the 2020 NL MVP, has been linked to the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays and even the Rays, who made him an offer before the lockout. The markets of the two star first basemen are inextricably linked, and with Freeman expected to act quickly in making a decision post-lockout, the market for Olson could soon gain some clarity.
While the A’s will be listening on more than just Olson — Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Ramon Laureano and Lou Trivino could also be marketed — there’s little denying that Olson is the headliner of their options and, arguably, of the entire trade market. The 2021 All-Star and two-time Gold Glover belted a career-high 39 home runs last year while posting the best all-around production of his Major League tenure. Olson hit .271/.371/.540 and maintained a huge 13.1% walk rate while simultaneously cutting his once-problematic strikeout rate from 31.4% in 2020 all the way down to 16.8%. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12MM this coming season.
Rangers To Sign Martin Perez
The Rangers have agreed to terms on a contract with free-agent lefty Martin Perez, reports FanSided’s Robert Murray (via Twitter). It’s a one-year, $4MM contract for Perez, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds. Perez, a client of Octagon, will return to the organization that originally signed and developed him. He made his big league debut with Texas in 2012 and spent the next seven seasons with the Rangers.
Perez, 31 next month, spent the 2019 season with the Twins and was with the Red Sox in 2020-21 before returning to Texas. In his three years away from his original club, the southpaw turned in 341 1/3 innings of 4.88 ERA ball with rather pedestrian strikeout (18.4%), walk (8.7%) and ground-ball (44.9%) rates. Boston declined a $6MM club option in favor of a $500K buyout on Perez after the 2021 season.
Once lauded as one of the sport’s premier pitching prospects, Perez has instead settled in as a back-of-the-rotation starter. Those 2019-21 rates represented a slight uptick over his career strikeout rate and a slight downgrade over his career ground-ball rate, but generally speaking, Perez’s output in three years away from Texas was roughly in line with his lifetime numbers at the big league level. He doesn’t necessarily work deep into starts, but Perez has avoided the injured list for the past three seasons, with the exception of a brief absence this past summer following a positive Covid-19 test. He’ll give the Rangers some needed stability at the back of a starting staff that was — and still is — in need of multiple arms.
Perez will join fellow offseason signee Jon Gray and right-hander Dane Dunning as one of the only three locks in the Texas rotation. Lefty Taylor Hearn could get another look, depending on other moves that are made, but he was hit hard in limited work out of the rotation while thriving in the bullpen this past season. Right-hander A.J. Alexy had a big year in the upper minors but a tepid 4.70 ERA in 23 big league frames. Prospects Spencer Howard and Glenn Otto, acquired at the trade deadline, both were hit hard in their brief MLB looks. Right-hander Yerry Rodriguez and southpaw Brock Burke are both on the 40-man roster but were both ineffective in Triple-A this past season.
Put another way, Perez figures to be one of multiple arms acquired by the Rangers, whether via free agency or trade. Texas has been strongly linked to hometown star Clayton Kershaw, and the general belief is that Kershaw will either return to the Dodgers this winter or sign with the Rangers to be close to his family. The Rangers are also known to be keenly interested in A’s first baseman Matt Olson, and Oakland has several arms who could be on the trade block alongside their All-Star first baseman (Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas).
The Rangers’ hope is surely that 2021 No. 2 overall pick Jack Leiter and 2019 first-rounder Cole Winn — two of the sport’s most promising arms — will be able to factor into the big league rotation sooner than later. That may not be the case until 2023, however, so the veteran Perez will give them a bridge to those younger arms. His $4MM salary is a mere footnote in what’s been a massive offseason of spending for president of baseball operations Jon Daniels and general manager Chris Young. Texas has also signed Corey Seager (10 years, $325MM), Marcus Semien (seven years, $175MM), Gray (four years, $56MM) and Kole Calhoun (one year, $6.2MM), bumping their projected payroll to just under $134MM. That’s a notable increase from the past couple seasons but still a good bit shy of 2017’2 franchise-record $165MM payroll.
Rangers Notes: Patton, Hernandez, Engler
Spencer Patton‘s successful return to the Majors in 2021 flew somewhat under the radar, but the 34-year-old righty emerged as a key reliever for the Rangers, pitching to a 3.83 ERA with a 27.9% strikeout rate, an 8.7% walk rate and a 41.3% ground-ball rate in 42 1/3 innings of work. That came on the heels of a strong four-year run with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars in Japan and marked Patton’s first big league action since a 2016 run with the Cubs. Prior to this past season, Patton carried a 6.26 ERA in 54 2/3 big league frames.
He’s not yet arbitration eligible, but the contract Patton signed upon returning from Japan calls for him to earn a $1.5MM salary in the Majors this year, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. It’s a split contract, so he’d earn at a different rate in the minors in the event Texas options him out. (Patton does have one minor league option remaining.) The Rangers may yet add to the bullpen after the lockout lifts, but Patton has likely solidified on the Rangers’ Opening Day roster, barring injury or something unforeseen in whatever iteration of Spring Training is pieced together. Patton, Joe Barlow, Brett Martin and Josh Sborz all look like they have the inside track on Opening Day bullpen jobs, and the Rangers will hope to get hard-throwing righties Jose Leclerc and Jonathan Hernandez back from Tommy John surgery before too long, as well.
Some more notes on the Rangers…
- Speaking of Hernandez, the right-hander tweeted last week that he’s begun throwing off a mound for the first time since undergoing that Tommy John procedure. Hernandez sustained what was described as a “low-grade” tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow early in 2021 Spring Training and was shut down for a four-week period of rest. Doctors seemingly didn’t see enough improvement following that shutdown, as he underwent surgery on April 12 of last year. The 25-year-old Hernandez had a big showing with Texas during the shortened 2020 season, pitching to a 2.90 ERA with a 24.8% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 45.7% grounder rate in 31 innings. Hernandez averaged 96.7 mph on his heater that summer and posted a strong 13.9% swinging-strike rate as well. He’s had trouble with command in the past, particularly in 2019 when he walked one of every six hitters he faced in his big league debut (16 2/3 innings). He pairs that power fastball with a plus slider, however, and if he can sustain the improved command he showed in 2020, he’d quickly emerge as a high-end bullpen piece for manager Chris Woodward.
- One name who might’ve emerged in the bullpen mix, Scott Engler, won’t be pitching at all in 2022, tweets Jeff Wilson. The 25-year-old righty underwent Tommy John surgery on Monday this week, ruling him out of the team’s immediate plans. A 16th-round pick in 2016, Engler split the 2021 season between Double-A and Triple-A, pitching to a combined 3.71 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate, a 10.6% walk rate and a 48.5% ground-ball rate. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote last May that Engler has a plus splitter with so much drop that it can at times be mistaken for a curveball. The surgery figures to sideline Engler into the early stages of the 2023 season, but based on his upper-level experience and relative success, he could find himself in the bullpen mix next year.
Latest On Clayton Kershaw
The baseball world’s focus continues to fixate on the MLB lockout and today’s MLB-imposed deadline, but whenever the lockout lifts, the ensuing flurry of free-agent and trade activity has the potential to be historic. One of the most notable names among the yet-unsigned players on the market is three-time Cy Young winner and 2014 NL MVP Clayton Kershaw, who became a free agent for the first time at season’s end. The prevailing wisdom since he hit the market has been that Kershaw would either return to the Dodgers or sign with the Rangers, as Kershaw’s Dallas home is a short drive from Arlington’s Globe Life Field.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today touched on that fact in his latest MLB notebook over the weekend, writing that a former teammate of Kershaw’s expects him to either sign with the Rangers or retire. That’s just one third party’s opinion, of course, and that identifier itself is rather vague. (“Former teammate” could range from Corey Seager to Ted Lilly, after all.) It’s perhaps an anecdotal note, but any clues as to the eventual decision of a future Hall of Famer (and any shreds of offseason normalcy) are of particular intrigue.
It’s already been a huge offseason for the Rangers, who’ve signed Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun as they shift gears from an abbreviated rebuild to a clear win-now approach. Despite doling out a more than a half-billion dollars in free agent contracts, however, the Rangers still ought to have the financial wherewithal to add Kershaw.
The Rangers are projected for a payroll of roughly $127MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, and they have only $80.25MM in guaranteed 2023 contracts to consider. Texas ran a $165MM payroll as recently as 2017 and, from 2014-18, averaged a $146.5MM Opening Day payroll. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggested multiple times in recent weeks that a Kershaw match could be in the cards, though the implication in Grant’s latest mailbag piece was that Kershaw would be their final major free-agent expenditure if he did sign (likely at an annual salary north of $20MM).
All that said, while the possibility of Kershaw changing teams is a fascinating one on which to speculate, there’s been no firm indicator that he won’t return to the Dodgers. Kershaw himself appeared on the Dan Patrick Show earlier this month and spoke broadly about the allure of playing on a perennial contender, even if it came with the difficulty of enduring repeated playoff exits (YouTube link).
Kershaw didn’t do much to tip his hand, but he did note that for the Dodgers, “the World Series is the expectation” every year. Dodger fans hoping for a reunion will surely point out the obvious: that has not been the case for the Rangers. Of course, there are broader factors at play. Kershaw noted in that interview with Patrick that he and his wife welcomed their fourth child over the winter, and proximity to his young family will naturally play a major role in Kershaw’s decision.
It’s worth noting, too, that Kershaw certainly didn’t sound like a player who had retirement on his mind.
“We have to continue to prepare like we’re going to play,” Kershaw said when asked how the lockout impacts his preparation for the season. “…I’m continuing to prepare like we’re going to start on time, but each day it just seems like we’re getting further and further from that.”
Latest On Carlos Correa
Going into the offseason, there were many parallels between the top two free agents, Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. Both were shortstops reaching free agency at the age of 27 and coming off excellent platform seasons. Seager, along with agent Scott Boras, secured a ten-year, $325MM contract from the Rangers prior to the lockout. Correa, however, did not sign before transactions were frozen and then hired the Boras corporation to represent him in January. Once the lockout is lifted, his continued search for a contract will be one of the top storylines to follow. Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a look at some of the options, including the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers and Cubs, while Ken Rosenthal and Corey Brock of The Athletic, look into the fit with the Red Sox and Mariners, respectively.
The Dodgers, of course, had Seager as their shortstop in recent years and just saw him depart for the Rangers. The expectation has been that they were comfortable enough with that loss because they could rely on Trea Turner to take over at short. If the Dodgers were to then pivot to Correa, however, that would likely involve Turner moving over to second base, much like he did when he and Seager were on the roster together after he was acquired from the Nationals at last year’s trade deadline. Since Turner is just one year away from free agency, signing a long-term deal with Correa could be a way to proactively address the shortstop void one year before it’s absolutely necessary. This scenario seems to have been already considered by the Dodgers’ brass, as Sherman reports that they offered Seager a $275MM deal before he signed with the Rangers. However, he also notes that it might not be as simple as swapping Correa in for Seager, as Correa’s role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal might not go over so well with fans of the Dodgers, since they were defeated by that now-infamous team in the 2017 World Series.
That same issue is present with another reported suitor, the Yankees, as they were felled by the Astros in the 2017 ALCS. But Yankees’ general manager Brian Cashman has previously stated that the reaction of the fans “is not going to enter my calculus right now.” Since Gleyber Torres was moved to second base last year, it was expected that the Yankees would be major players in this year’s shortstop market. However, they may be willing to eschew a big splash, preferring to target a short-term stopgap option to hold down the position until it’s taken over by one of their prospects, either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe. It’s also possible that this is merely a posture for negotiating purposes and that the club may emerge as a genuine suitor for Correa. Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that they did check in with Correa prior to the lockout, but seemed to prefer Seager. Since Correa was reportedly looking for a contract slightly above what Seager eventually got, it may be difficult for a deal to come together.
The Blue Jays have less of an obvious need for Correa, given the presence of Bo Bichette at short. Sherman opines that the club could sign Correa and then bump Bichette to either second or third, but then downplays the possibility of them dishing out a contract nearing Correa’s asking price. Given the fact that they were reportedly in the mix for Seager prior to the lockout, the possibility can’t be ruled out entirely. The sign-stealing situation clearly isn’t an issue for the Jays, as they’ve already signed George Springer, Correa’s teammate in Houston. But even if they do have the payroll to make a big splash after the lockout, they may use it to make a run at Freddie Freeman instead.
The Tigers have long been considered a speculative fit for Correa, given the fact that their manager is A.J. Hinch, who previously managed Correa in Houston. However, they already made a big investment at shortstop when they signed Javier Baez prior to the lockout. Although Baez played some second base with the Mets last year in deference to Francisco Lindor and could theoretically do the same again, it still would be shocking to see them double down in such an aggressive fashion. Sherman also speculates that the Cubs could be a dark horse here. The club was primarily focused on tearing down last year, trading away most of the core pieces from their previous competitive window, including Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Since the offseason began, they have been surprisingly active in making additions, bringing on Marcus Stroman, Yan Gomes and Wade Miley. However, those players were all brought aboard with short-term commitments and pivoting to the type of lengthy deal that would be required to sign Correa seems unlikely at this stage.
As for the Red Sox, Rosenthal lays out a scenario where Correa takes over as their shortstop given that his defense is far superior to that of Xander Bogaerts, who could be shuffled over to second base. However, he also points out that, given the lockout-shortened Spring Training to come, there will be less time for Bogaerts to develop his skills at a new position than there would be in a more normal year, perhaps making the plan too awkward to implement successfully. After this season, Bogaerts can opt-out of the three years and $60MM that will be remaining on his contract, something that he seems likely to do if he has another healthy and productive season. Signing Correa now could be a way for Boston to preemptively replace Bogaerts, but as Rosenthal points out, the club hasn’t signed a free agent contract larger than $14MM since Chaim Bloom became the club’s chief baseball officer. Suddenly dropping $300MM on the table would be a huge departure in strategy. However, it’s exactly because of that avoidance of significant commitments that the club’s future payroll is fairly blank. If Bogaerts does indeed opt out after this season, that would leave Chris Sale as the only serious commitment on the books.
For the Mariners, Brock doesn’t believe it likely that there’s a match here. However, he points out that, if Correa is interested in going to Seattle, they have the money to make it happen. The club’s payroll for the year is currently around $87MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. From 2015 to 2019, the club’s annual budget hovered in the $120-160MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That leaves plenty of breathing room, if the club is willing to push up to those spending levels again in an attempt to build on last year’s 90-win campaign. The team’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto previously stated that the club wouldn’t supplant J.P. Crawford as the team’s shortstop, but it’s hard to imagine that strategy is so etched in stone that they wouldn’t consider adding a talent like Correa if the stars aligned for them to do so.
Clearly, there are many ways Correa’s market could play out once the lockout ends. With the freezing of transactions and contract negotiations, we can’t really know the intentions of any of these parties until that ice breaks and dominos start falling again. Due to the compressed timeline that will eventually exist between the signing of a new CBA and the start of the season, this will all have to play out in an expedited fashion. And with Boras also representing many other high-profile free agents like Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon and more, that figures to make the situation all the more frenzied.
AL Notes: Rangers, Hosmer, Royals, Wells
The Padres and Rangers discussed first baseman Eric Hosmer in trade talks last summer, as part of broader pre-deadline negotiations that also reportedly involved Padres prospect Robert Hassell and then-Rangers slugger Joey Gallo. It isn’t any secret that San Diego has been trying to get Hosmer’s contract off the books, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports that Texas still wanted the Padres to cover the majority of the salary owed to Hosmer ($59MM from 2022-25). The exact numbers involved in the proposed trade isn’t known, and obviously the inclusion of Gallo (paid $6.2MM last season and projected to earn $10.2MM in 2022) was a major factor in the financial elements of any deal.
Since Gallo ended up being traded to the Yankees at the deadline, it remains to be seen if the Padres could revisit a more streamlined version of a Hosmer trade with the Rangers once the lockout is over, with Hassell perhaps included as a sweetener to convince Texas to absorb a larger chunk of Hosmer’s salary. Of course, the equation has now changed quite a bit for a Rangers team that has already added Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray in a pre-lockout spending spree. While the Rangers still have payroll space, they might prefer to spend on a player who can more readily help them contend in 2022. Hosmer has been roughly a league-average hitter over his last four seasons, and Texas already has a left-handed hitting first baseman in Nathanial Lowe who might be a better candidate to out-perform Hosmer at the plate (and at a fraction of Hosmer’s price tag).
More from the American League…
- The Royals used a bumper crop of homegrown talent to capture the 2015 World Series, and are now trying to reload with a new wave of minor leaguers. General manager J.J. Picollo tells The Kansas City Star’s Lynn Worthy that “I feel like this group is just a tad more deep” than the core of the 2014-15 pennant-winning rosters, and in particular more depth when it comes to starting pitching. Former first-round picks Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Jackson Kowar, and Daniel Lynch have already cracked the majors, and Picollo cited even two more waves of younger arms that could be coming next. All of this depth could manifest itself as cornerstone pieces of the next K.C. rotation, or perhaps as trade chips — as Worthy notes, the Royals dealt several notable pitching prospects while building their last championship team.
- With Gary Sanchez‘s future a constant topic of discussion in the Bronx, many Yankees fans see Austin Wells as a potential Sanchez replacement behind the plate as early as the 2023 season. However, the proverbial “catcher of the future” might not necessarily remain as a catcher, according to Yankees VP of player development Kevin Reese. “Depending on where some of our other guys are, there might be an opportunity to get him some reps (at other positions)….Then we might have to get a little bit creative to keep his bat in the lineup. But none of that is a concern about his catching,” Reese told The New York Daily News’ Kristie Ackert. Wells has been seen as a potential candidate to move to first base or a corner outfield spot even before the Yankees drafted him 28th overall in 2020, and while one AL scout feels a position change will still happen, he credited Wells for improving his throwing arm and his framing. Wherever he ends up on the diamond, Wells has shown signs that his bat will play at any position — Wells batted .264/.390/.476 with 16 homers over 469 plate appearances in his first pro season (at the A-ball and high-A levels), and then turned heads with a big performance in Arizona Fall League action.
Rangers Top Prospect Josh Jung Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
Rangers top prospect Josh Jung underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder this morning, the team told reporters (Twitter link via Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News). It’s expected to be about six months before he’s cleared to even begin serving as a designated hitter in games. Jung sustained the injury recently while lifting weights as part of his offseason training regimen. Texas had already shut him down, but the hope was that he could avoid surgery. After receiving additional medical opinions this week, however, surgery was deemed the necessary course of treatment.
It’s a brutal blow for the Rangers, who hoped last year could serve as the final full year of development for Jung. A big league debut at some point in 2022 was widely expected after the 2019 No. 8 overall pick laid waste to Double-A and Triple-A pitching in 2021. In 342 plate appearances between those two levels, Jung slashed a combined .326/.398/.592 with 19 home runs, 22 doubles, a triple, a 22.2% strikeout rate and a 9.1% walk rate.
There was some thought that with a big enough spring showing, Jung could even position himself as a candidate to break camp with the Rangers. Texas is clearly shifting from its prior rebuilding mode into a win-now mindset, as evidenced by their offseason signings of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray. Jung is the overwhelming favorite to eventually slot in as the team’s everyday third baseman, and most scouting reports on the promising former Texas Tech star expect him to do just that. He ranked as the No. 26 prospect in MLB at Baseball America this winter, No. 31 at Baseball Prospectus and No. 19 at ESPN. The team at FanGraphs was most bullish on Jung, placing a 60 grade on him overall (on the 20-80 scale) and ranking him inside the sport’s 15 best farmhands.
Any coronation of Jung as the team’s everyday third baseman is now on hold for the majority of the 2022 season — if not until the 2023 campaign. With Jung now out of the picture for the foreseeable future, versatile defensive star Isiah Kiner-Falefa finds himself shifting from a super-utility role (and interesting trade candidate) to the team’s primary option at the hot corner.
The 26-year-old Kiner-Falefa is well equipped to handle such a role, as he proved in 2020 when he won a Gold Glove Award at third base. He moved to shortstop for the 2021 campaign and turned in another strong defensive showing, although the potential drop-off from Jung to Kiner-Falefa from an offensive standpoint is likely to be steep. Talented as he is with the glove, Kiner-Falefa is primarily a singles hitter who rarely walks. He’s posted a .273/.316/.361 batting line over the past two seasons, which is productive enough to provide value when combined with his defensive prowess, but Jung has quite a bit more power and is widely expected to be an impact performer on offense.
Offensive gap between the two notwithstanding, Kiner-Falefa is a solid option to have on hand. He had reportedly been of interest to the Yankees as a possible trade candidate prior to the lockout, but Jung’s injury surely dampens the possibility that the Rangers would consider parting with Kiner-Falefa. While they could, speculatively speaking, still move Kiner-Falefa if a compelling enough offer presents itself and follow that trade with a short-term free agent signing, the likelier scenario is that Kiner-Falefa will be manning the hot corner at Globe Life Field for the vast majority of the 2022 season. Should Seager or Semien find themselves out of the lineup, Kiner-Falefa could step in for either player, with 28-year-old Andy Ibanez providing some additional cover at second base and third base.
Rangers Prospect Josh Jung Shut Down Due To Shoulder Strain
Feb. 21: Jung is expected to receive additional opinions this week, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, who ominously adds that the injury could ultimately require surgery.
Feb. 18: The Rangers have shut down third base prospect Josh Jung after he strained the labrum in his left shoulder, the team informed reporters (including Levi Weaver of the Athletic). He incurred the injury while recently lifting weights as part of his preseason training program.
Texas didn’t announce a timetable for his return. He’s slated to undergo further evaluation next week, and it’s possible the injury will prove to be a minor setback. If the issue were to affect his readiness for the start of the season, though, it might delay his big league debut. Jung is widely expected to reach the majors this year after splitting the 2021 campaign between Double-A Frisco and Triple-A Round Rock. He raked at both stops, hitting .308/.366/.544 in Double-A before improving to a .348/.436/.652 showing at the minors’ top level.
Those numbers may have been inflated a touch by a smaller sample, as he was limited to 342 cumulative plate appearances after a stress fracture in his foot delayed his season debut until mid-June. Nevertheless, the right-handed hitter impressed enough in the summer’s final few months to cement his place among the game’s top prospects. The eighth overall pick in 2019 out of Texas Tech (where his brother Jace currently stars), Jung has always hit when healthy. Baseball America rated him among the game’s top 30 prospects this winter, writing that his hit/power combination gives him a chance to be a middle-of-the-order bat.
Jung isn’t regarded as a superlative defender at the hot corner, but evaluators generally believe he could be anywhere from serviceable to solid there. Between those glowing scouting reviews and his high minors performance, the 24-year-old looks likely to get an everyday crack in Arlington at some point in the near future. Jung’s looming arrival — coupled with the free agent spending spree that landed Marcus Semien and Corey Seager — has contributed to some speculation Texas could make infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa available in trade after the lockout.
Without a definitive timetable on Jung, it’s too early to tell whether his injury will affect the front office’s plans for when the transactions freeze concludes. Obviously, it’s also not clear precisely when the MLB season will begin. (Jung is not on the 40-man roster, so he’s not subject to the lockout). Even if the injury lingers past the scheduled start date of the major league season, it’s possible the lockout will carry on long enough that the injury won’t affect his MLB timetable anyhow. Much about the situation remains uncertain, but the Rangers figure to play things very cautiously with one of the most talented young players in the organization.
AL West Notes: Astros, Rangers, A’s
The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan takes a look at the Astros‘ depth chart for the upcoming season, highlighting a few minor areas the club could look to pursue depth. With top prospect Jeremy Pena currently atop the depth chart at shortstop and Aledmys Diaz slated to back up at all four infield positions, Kaplan suggests an additional shortstop candidate — ideally one with a minor league option remaining — would be a prudent addition. Obviously, the whole situation would change in the event that the ‘Stros re-sign Carlos Correa or pivot by inking fellow free agent Trevor Story. There aren’t too many free-agent options available in that bucket, but that’s the sort of player who can be found in a smaller-scale trade or on the waiver wire as teams make cuts amid the forthcoming flurry of transactions.
Kaplan also raises the “wild card” possibility of the Astros adding another corner outfielder (thus moving Kyle Tucker to center field) and suggests that if there’s one area from which the Astros are likely to trade in order to address other deficiencies, it’d be from their enviable starting pitching depth. (MLBTR listed veteran righty Jake Odorizzi among our likeliest trade candidates last week.) It’s a solid, broad-reaching look at where the Houston roster stands and how the team might attack some depth needs post-lockout, and ‘Stros fans in particular will want to take a full read-through.
Here’s a few more notes from the division…
- While the Rangers are likely to give Adolis Garcia the starting nod in center field again in 2022, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests that there’s enough uncertainty that the club could pursue additional depth in the outfield. Seiya Suzuki has been connected to Texas, of course, but even absent a big splash like Suzuki or Michael Conforto, smaller-scale outfield additions seem plausible. Specifically, someone capable of playing center and also handling left field would be of intrigue, Grant notes. Garcia got out to a blistering start but cratered with a .219/.266/.386 slash from July 1 onward (334 plate appearances). Meanwhile, backup option Eli White is recovering from elbow surgery, while top prospect Leodys Taveras has yet to hit in the big leagues. Over in left field, Willie Calhoun has not yet proven himself capable of consistently hitting MLB pitching or remaining healthy. Speculatively, names like Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick and Jarrod Dyson could all fit the billing described by Grant, though there’s little reason to discount the possibility of Texas making a bigger splash, given their pre-lockout levels of aggression.
- In running through some of the minor league free agents already brought aboard by the Athletics this winter, Melissa Lockard of The Athletic suggests that the A’s probably aren’t done adding catching help. Twenty-eight-year-old Austin Allen received only eight plate appearances despite a robust .317/.351/.584 slash in 299 trips to the plate at the Triple-A level. The A’s instead gave 94 plate appearances to light-hitting Aramis Garcia and acquired veteran Yan Gomes at the trade deadline as a second catcher to pair with young backstop Sean Murphy. Neither Garcia nor Gomes is with the organization anymore, and the top option in Triple-A at the moment is journeyman Christian Bethancourt. Catching depth, then, indeed figures to be an area of focus for the A’s — be it via minor league free agency, the waiver wire or perhaps as part of the return in some of the trades they’re widely expected to execute when transactions resume.