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AL West Notes: Iwakuma, Mariners, Freese, Gallardo

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The Mariners are leaning toward a qualifying offer for right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma, writes MLB.com’s Greg Johns, but no final decision has been made. There’s mutual interest between the Mariners and the 34-year-old Iwakuma, but Johns notes that Seattle must decide if it wants to risk Iwakuma accepting the $15.8MM one-year offer, which would add a significant commitment to a payroll that has already guaranteed $77MM worth of 2015 salary to five players. From my vantage point, Iwakuma can easily double the amount of the qualifying offer on the open market this winter and could max out on a three-year deal in the $39-45MM range, making a QO a reasonable decision. Even if Iwakuma’s market collapses a bit and he has to take a two-year pact, I’d imagine annual salaries in the $13-15MM range would still be in play.

Here’s more from the AL West…

  • ESPN’s Buster Olney hears that Mariners’ early offseason focus is on improving the club’s on-base percentage (Twitter link). Most of general manager Jerry Dipoto’s activity to address that deficiency will come via trade as opposed to free agency, Olney adds. That lines up with an Inbox column from Johns, in which he says he doesn’t foresee Dipoto making a big free agent splash. Rather, his expectation is that Dipoto will seek to add a veteran catcher, bullpen help, a center fielder and a rotation option primarily by being creative on the trade market.
  • Regarding the Mariners and whether or not they’ll dive into free agency, I’ll add this: Seattle has the top unprotected pick in next year’s draft at No. 11, so it’d be pretty surprising to see them sign any player who rejects a qualifying offer. One free agent target that strikes me as a nice fit in Seattle would be Denard Span, assuming he doesn’t receive a QO.
  • Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register examines whether or not the Angels will make a qualifying offer to David Freese. As Fletcher notes, Freese looks to be the lone regular on the free agent market at this time — unless some teams consider Daniel Murphy an option there — which could line him up for something like $30MM over three years. Offering Freese about $16MM is risky for the Halos, who are only about $26MM under the luxury tax threshold by Fletcher’s calculations. If the Angels make the offer, they’ll do so with the hope that Freese rejects. According to Fletcher, the front office is currently mulling the possibility, which is one that MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and I discussed at length on last week’s QO-themed edition of the MLBTR Podcast.
  • Sticking with the qualifying offer theme that has been largely present throughout this post, Jeff Wilsont of the Forst Worth Star-Telegram spoke to Yovani Gallardo’s agent, Bobby Witt, about the possibility of the Rangers extending a qualifying offer to his client. “Deep down, I think they’re going to do it,” said Witt. “That’s the smart play by the Rangers.” Wilson examines the possibility of Gallardo being the first player to accept a qualifying offer, which, as Wilson points out, would mean that Gallardo receives a nice one-year deal to pitch in his home town and hit the open market in a move favorable position on next year’s thin crop of pitchers.

Coaching Notes: Maddux, Yankees, Gardenhire, Angels

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The Nationals announced yesterday that they’ve hired recently departed Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux to fill the same role in their organization under new manager Dusty Baker. (MLB.com’s Bill Ladson first tweeted that the hire was likely.) In luring Maddux to D.C., the Nationals landed one of the game’s more respected coaches of any discipline, and they paid accordingly. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Maddux will become the highest-paid pitching coach in baseball with the Nationals, adding that the team’s pursuit of Maddux began as soon as the Rangers provided him the opportunity to listen to offers from other teams. Washington’s pursuit lasted more than two weeks, and Nightengale hears that the Nationals’ plan was to hire Maddux as pitching coach regardless of who was eventually named manager.

A few more coaching notes from around the league…

  • The Yankees announced this week that 2015 assistant hitting coach Alan Cockrell has been promoted to hitting coach. Cockrell has previously served as Mariners’ hitting coach and was also the Rockies’ hitting coach during their 2007 World Series run. Meanwhile, recently retired Marcus Thames, who had a productive 2010 season as a part-time outfielder for the Yankees, has been named assistant hitting coach. Thames, still just 38, has spent the past three seasons as a hitting coach with three different Yankees’ minor league affiliates (Tampa, Trenton and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre).
  • Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the Padres have offered the bench coach position to former Twins manager Ron Gardenhire, who finished runner up to Andy Green in the team’s managerial search. Multiple sources told Lin of the offer, he notes, while another source said the Padres also offered the position to Dodgers bench coach Tim Wallach. All of this seems to indicate that current bench coach Dave Roberts could indeed depart in 2016, though Lin hears that the organization isn’t shutting the door on keeping Roberts. Rather, they’d assign him a new coaching position if he were to return. Roberts has been interviewing for managerial gigs and is believed to be the favorite to land the Dodgers’ managerial position at this time. Gardenhire, for his part, was diplomatic and wouldn’t confirm the offer in a recent MLB Network Radio appearance, but he spoke highly of GM A.J. Preller (links to Twitter). “A.J. is a brilliant young man,” said Gardenhire. “He’s pretty cool, a baseball junkie, loves to go out and scout. I like those things.” Gardenhire called the San Diego group as a whole “unbelievable.”
  • The Rangers will hire the Astros’ Doug Brocail as their new pitching coach, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Brocail, a former big league right-hander, has served as Houston’s pitching coach previously and more recently been working in the team’s front office. As Grant notes, he’ll bring an analytic point of view to Texas, which will mesh with second-year manager Jeff Banister’s philosophies. Grant also reports that Triple-A pitching coach Brad Holman will be the Rangers’ bullpen coach in 2016.
  • The Angels announced this week that former D-Backs pitching coach Charles Nagy has been hired as the club’s new pitching coach. The 48-year-old Nagy enjoyed a 14-year Major League career spent almost entirely in Cleveland, and he served as a special assistant in the Cleveland front office this past season. He was Arizona’s pitching coach from 2011-13.
  • Additionally, the Angels announced that they’ve promoted Dave Hansen from assistant hitting coach to hitting coach and named Paul Sorrento assistant hitting coach. Each hitting instructor spent more than 10 years in the Majors. Hansen has previously been hitting coach for the Mariners and Dodgers, and he’s held his assistant role in Anaheim since 2014. Sorrento has been working in the Angels’ minor league system.
  • The Brewers this week formally announced the previously reported hires of Derek Johnson as pitching coach and Pat Murphy as bench coach. Murphy, of course, was the Padres’ interim manager from June through season’s end and has a close relationship with Milwaukee skipper Craig Counsell, whom he coached in college.

Poll: Should The Rangers Make Yovani Gallardo A Qualifying Offer

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If you aren’t associated with the Rangers in some way, chances are you haven’t wondered if starting pitcher Yovani Gallardo would merit a qualifying offer. Once a promising pitching prospect, Gallardo now features an unimpressive 90 mph fastball, 5.91 K/9, and 3.32 BB/9. In an age of power and pristine strikeout-to-walk ratios, Gallardo is easy to overlook. The Rangers reportedly plan to make the $15.8MM qualifying offer. But should they?

Statistically, there are a few angles to address. The 29-year-old has posted 2.0 to 2.6 fWAR in each of the last four seasons. That’s right around league average. It may feel off, but a relatively young, league average pitcher is generally worth around $12MM to $16MM a year on the free agent market. For example, Ervin Santana inked a four-year, $54MM deal with the Twins last offseason. Santana isn’t a perfect comp because he was coming off a 2.9 WAR season and has a flashier arsenal. He also had a much shakier track record.

Gallardo doesn’t eat innings like a top pitcher. In some ways, that’s both a positive and a negative. The Rangers were able to able to get the most out of him by removing him early. Only five of his 33 starts lasted more than six innings. Ten of his starts ran just five or fewer frames.

That usage put extra pressure on a shaky Rangers bullpen, but it also probably allowed him to post a solid 3.42 ERA in 184 innings. He had a 4.00 FIP based on his strikeout, walk, and home run rates. FanGraphs also tracks an ERA-based WAR called RA9-WAR. By that measure, Gallardo contributed over four wins to the Rangers’ season.

This brings to mind two important questions. Can Gallardo be easily managed by limiting the length of his starts? Evidence suggests he can, but the results are inconclusive. Additionally, how much does the extra strain on the bullpen detract from Gallardo’s value to his club? Obviously, that’s a very club dependent question. A team with a deep, talented bullpen might like using him in a short outing while clubs with less relief depth will prefer longer starts.

The evidence presented says that Gallardo is an unexciting, automatic qualifying offer candidate. However, there are signs that his stuff is on the decline. His strikeout rate has dropped in four straight seasons from 9.00 K/9 in 2012 to a middling 5.91 K/9 last year. His velocity is also down, and he may have experienced a lucky season with regard to his HR/FB rate. He continues to post a high ground ball rate, but he’s shown no signs of developing the excellent command that allows a Mark Buehrle or Brandon McCarthy to thrive.

Every year, a few players are hurt by the qualifying offer designation (refer back to Ervin Santana). Gallardo is exactly the kind of pitcher who could find it difficult to sign with a new club if he turns down the qualifying offer. He’s entering his age 30 season with a multi-year decline in stuff and peripherals. Despite health and consistent league average production, he doesn’t offer clubs much hope for upside.

Ultimately, I still think the worst case scenario for Gallardo is somewhere around a three-year, $28MM contract. Obviously, he could still sign for much more too. If the Rangers are happy to pay him $15.8MM on a one-year contract, then they have no cause for concern either way. But at some point, a player is going to bet on themselves by taking the higher AAV.

AL West Notes: Maddux, Rangers, Mariners

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The Rangers announced yesterday that pitching coach Mike Maddux will not return for the 2016 season. “Jeff Banister and I met with Mike this morning to inform him we had decided to go in another direction,” said general manager Jon Daniels via press release. “I want to thank Mike for his outstanding contributions to the Texas Rangers organization. He has played a major role in the success we have enjoyed over the last seven years. His dedication to developing and improving our major league pitching staff is greatly appreciated.” Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (via Twitter) that the highly respected Maddux probably won’t be unemployed long; several clubs have already reached out to Maddux to express “serious interest” now that he and the Rangers have officially parted ways.

A few more notes from the AL West…

  • With Carlos Corporan electing free agency, the Rangers have Robinson Chirinos, Chris Gimenez and Bobby Wilson as remaining catching options on the 40-man roster, but the team will take a look at the market for backstops this winter, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan writes. Chirinos, who quietly had a nice season at the plate despite spending time on the DL, projects as the club’s No. 1 catcher. Gimenez, too, hit well and also served as Cole Hamels’ personal catcher following his acquisition. And while Wilson struggled as a hitter, Sullivan notes that the organization considers him the best defensive option of the three. Daniels told Sullivan that the Rangers need to be careful “not to covet something that may or may not be out there,” in reference to a catching upgrade, though he did say he expects to explore the market for catching help so as to bring the best group possible to Spring Training in 2016.
  • The Mariners announced a wave of front office promotions. Assistant GM Jeff Kingston, who served as the team’s interim general manager between the firing of Jack Zduriencik and the hiring of Jerry Dipoto, has had vice president of baseball operations added to his title and will now also oversee the entire player development department. Director of pro scouting Tom Allison has been bumped up to vice president of player personnel and will oversee the team’s scouting operations. Major League scout Lee MacPhail IV (the nephew of Phillies president Andy MacPhail) has been promoted to Allison’s old post as director of scouting. Additionally, the Mariners hired Joe Bohringer, who has spent the past four seasons as the Cubs’ director of pro scouting, as a special assistant to Dipoto.
  • Turning to the Mariners’ actual roster, John McGrath of the Tacoma News Tribune opines that the Royals serve as a blueprint for the type of club that Dipoto should attempt to construct. The Royals trounced the Mariners in terms of defensive metrics, contact rate and baserunning efficiency, McGrath notes, indicating that they have a roster that is tailored far more appropriately for a spacious ball park. The Mariners’ Safeco Field is similarly spacious to the Royals’ Kauffman Stadium, yet Seattle ranked among the worst defenses in the league, was far too reliant on home runs (as opposed to making contact) and was successful in just 60.5 percent of its collective stolen base attempts. McGrath also notes that a superior bullpen — one that is more adept at protecting marginal one- and two-run leads — will be needed if the Mariners are to contend again.

NL Central Notes: Schwarber, Park, Chapman

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ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers dispels the notion that the Cubs will (or even that they should) shop Kyle Schwarber this offseason due to his perceived defensive shortcomings. While Schwarber undeniably struggled in the outfield this postseason, Rogers notes that no one was clamoring for such a move in the regular season. Schwarber logged about 300 innings in the outfield during the regular season, and while his inexperience showed, he wasn’t egregiously bad over that sample of games, either. It’s hardly a representative sample, but Rogers notes that extrapolating Schwarber’s Defensive Runs Saved mark to a full season would leave him about 10 to 13 runs below average, and his bat is capable of making up the difference. He also points out that with his work ethic, Schwarber has plenty of time to improve at a position that’s still pretty new to him. I’d agree that the notion of trading Schwarber — which I’ve heard from many fans — is an overreaction, to say the least. Over the course of a full season between the outfield corners and behind the plate, I’d expect Schwarber’s bat to make him a plenty valuable player, even if he doesn’t develop into an everyday catcher or above-average outfield defender.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review examines whether or not the Pirates should be bidders for Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park. Sawchik spoke to former MLB scout Daniel Kim, who said that the posting fee for Park could be at least double the $5MM Pittsburgh bid to secure negotiation rights with Park’s former Nexen Heroes teammate, Jung Ho Kang. Sawchik writes that as many as 20 teams have scouted Park, with the Rangers having sent “top executives” to watch him. Sawchik also points out the presence of top prospect Josh Bell, who isn’t far from the Majors and projects as a power-hitting first baseman himself. While Bell could be a trade chip, the Pirates also need to address the starting rotation, so perhaps spending money on Park while an internal option is present isn’t the optimal use of their resources. The Pirates, like other MLB clubs, don’t have too long to decide, as Park will be posted next Monday with bids due by next Friday.
  • The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Bill Brink writes that the Pirates have at least cursory interest in Park, reminding that they applied for credentials to watch him earlier this season. However, he also notes that Kang’s success will probably boost the market’s valuation of Park, possibly pricing him out of the range of Pittsburgh, who also has $8MM committed to Mike Morse next year. Earlier today, Sawchik examined at length how Kang’s success could drive up the market for Park.
  • While no one’s quite certain whether or not the Reds will trade Aroldis Chapman this winter, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes that the Diamondbacks, Blue Jays and Nationals would be at the forefront of trade talks for Cincinnati’s All-Star closer this offseason should they listen to offers. The D-Backs, of course, pursued Chapman aggressively prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, while the Nats could have a very different-looking bullpen next year. Drew Storen seems like an obvious trade candidate, and the Nationals will almost certainly shop Jonathan Papelbon this winter as well.

List Of 2016 Super Two Qualifiers

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Presented below is the list of players who have qualified for Super Two status for arbitration purposes this year. (Service time in parentheses.) As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently tweeted, the service time cutoff is 2.130. You can find arbitration salary projections for these players right here.

Click here to read more about how the Super Two concept works. Note that, as the link shows, the originally projected service time cutoff moved down as things played out over the course of the season. That brought some notable names into early arbitration qualification — namely, Calhoun and Rendon — which could have a big impact on their earning power in potential extension scenarios.

It’s also important to bear in mind that several of the players listed above have already agreed to long-term extensions: Gyorko, Lagares, and Archer. Notably, the size of the guarantee provided by Archer’s contract is dependent upon his Super Two status. By reaching it (as had been expected), he keeps a $25.5MM overall guarantee. That total would have been reduced to $20MM otherwise.

That contract structure reflects the importance of reaching Super Two status. Doing so not only bumps a player’s salary a year early, but sets a higher floor for future paydays.

Quick Hits: Royals, Lackey, Odor, Brown, D-Backs

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While Alex Gordon is a lock to decline his $14MM player option, he doesn’t want to leave the Royals, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in his latest notes column. “I want to be here,” Gordon told Heyman. “This is like my second home. We love it here … Obviously, things happen … but this is where we want to be.” Of course, Gordon figures to have a chance at a nine-figure contract on the open market if he chooses to test it, and the Royals have never come close to spending that kind of cash on any player before, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently pointed out. Heyman also spoke to Johnny Cueto, who acknowledged that his late slide has damaged his free-agent chances. “That’s the way it is,” Cueto said, adding that he hopes he can get some degree of redemption in the World Series. Cueto said adjusting to a new league has played a part in his struggles, but he’s still plenty open to the challenge of signing with an AL club. “The DH isn’t a bad thing,” said Cueto. “I like the challenge.”

More from Heyman’s piece and from around the league…

  • John Lackey may have recently turned 37 years old, but his strong work in 2013-15 has some in the industry thinking that he could land a three-year deal worth $15-20MM annually, Heyman writes. I’d agree that a three-year offer is plausible, though the annual values mentioned by Heyman — especially at the top end of that range — seem pretty aggressive.
  • The Rangers “are expected” to discuss a long-term deal with standout second baseman Rougned Odor following the completion of the World Series, Heyman hears. Odor, still just 21 years old (22 in February), was demoted to the minors earlier this year due to enormous struggles at the plate, but he was among baseball’s most productive middle infielders upon his return to the bigs. Odor went 3-for-3 on June 15 when he was recalled and proceeded to hit .292/.334/.527 with 15 homers through season’s end. Some might assume a bloated BABIP helped to inflate his numbers, but he batted a very sustainable .305 on balls in play after his recall from the minors.
  • The Orioles have “limited interest” in former Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko tweets. It’ll be interesting to see where Brown lands, and what kind of deal he gets. Baltimore would seem, on paper, to be somewhat of a fit for a buy-low corner outfield option, especially if the team’s front office devotes substantial resources to addressing its needs in the rotation and/or re-signing Chris Davis. However, Kubatko’s tweet doesn’t make it seem like Brown is anywhere near the top of Baltimore’s offseason targets.
  • Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic provides an excellent preview of the Diamondbacks’ expected search for starting pitching this offseason. Arizona can’t afford top-tier arms like David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann, he notes. Many teams will be in that boat, which could push the market for second-tier arms like Mike Leake beyond the D-Backs’ comfort zone. Piecoro calls Lackey a “perfect fit” for the Snakes, noting that his age will cap the number of years Lackey can receive and keep him in Arizona’s comfort range. Among other free agent candidates suggested by Piecoro are Hisashi Iwakuma and Nippon Professional Baseball righty Kenta Maeda, who is expected to be posted this winter. In terms of trade candidates, Piecoro points out that the Indians and D-Backs line up well, as Arizona has plenty of young bats — a big need for Cleveland, which possesses a wealth of young pitching.

Elected Free Agency: Carlos Corporan, Darwin Barney

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As teams continue to go through the process of end-of-season 40-man roster maintenance, outrighted players will continue to elect free agency, expanding the available pool of talent this offseason. Here are today’s notable players to elect free agency…

  • Rangers catcher Carlos Corporan and outfielder Antoan Richardson have refused outright assignments and elected free agency, reports Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (Twitter link). The 31-year-old Corporan served as a backup to Robinson Chirinos this season but batted just .178/.244/.299 with three homers in 121 plate appearances. Corporan is a career .218/.280/.342 hitter in parts of six big league seasons (780 plate appearances). He’d have been arbitration eligible this winter, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $1.2MM salary. Richardson, 32, underwent surgery late in spring training to repair a herniated disk in his back. He has limited big league experience but is a prolific and efficient base-stealer in his minor league career.
  • Baseball America’s Matt Eddy reports that Darwin Barney has elected free agency after being outrighted by the Blue Jays. Barney, a fixture in the Cubs’ infield from 2010-14, came to the Blue Jays by way of trade from the Dodgers in September. Toronto had a need at second base with Devon Travis again sidelined by injuries, and Barney was picked up to fill that role despite the fact that being acquired after Sept. 1 made him ineligible for the postseason. Barney spent most of the season in Triple-A with the Dodgers, where he batted .277/.325/.354. He has an excellent defensive reputation and won an NL Gold Glove Award in 2012.

AL West Notes: Mariners Coaches, Ibanez, Angels, Astros

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The Mariners announced today that Angels special assistant Tim Bogar has been hired as the bench coach to serve under newly minted manager Scott Servais (as Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times reported would happen last week). Seattle also announced that Mel Stottlemyre Jr. has been named the club’s new pitching coach. Edgar Martinez will return as the team’s hitting coach, and Chris Woodward will once again handle first base coach duties in Seattle. That leaves openings at third base coach and bullpen coach, and Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune tweets that two names under consideration are Padres bench coach Dave Roberts and former big league catcher Dan Wilson, who has been Seattle’s minor league catching coordinator for the past three seasons.

A bit more from the AL West…

  • Dutton also tweets that the Mariners have spoken to Raul Ibanez about either a front office role or a position on the coaching staff. Ibanez, of course, played for the Mariners from 1996-2000 and then again from 2004-08 before returning for one final stint in 2013. He’s also familiar with GM Jerry Dipoto, though, as Dipoto signed Ibanez to a low-risk one-year deal for the 2014 season. That move didn’t work out, however, as Ibanez was unable to recreate the production he showed in his final season with the Mariners when he blasted 29 homers as a 41-year-old.
  • Angels GM Billy Eppler acknowledged that the hires of Servais, Bogar and Matt Klentak, who was announced as the new Phillies GM this morning, has taken a toll on the front office, writes MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez. “That’s no doubt going to be felt throughout a number of departments,” said Eppler. Per Gonzalez, Eppler is keeping an open mind and talking to a wide variety of candidates for the club’s coaching staff and front office. Among those who are possibilities to fill the role of assistant GM to Eppler are Hal Morris and Kevin Reese. Morris is presently the Angels’ director of pro scouting, while Reese holds that same title with Eppler’s former organization, the Yankees.
  • Within his column, Gonzalez notes that Rangers pitching coach is soliciting offers from other clubs and could be a candidate to fill the Angels’ vacancy at that post. As was reported recently, Maddux’s contract expires at the end of this month. He’s been invited back by Texas but appears to be testing the waters to see what sort of interest other clubs may have.
  • The Astros’ payroll will likely increase in 2016, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, though that will be in large part due to arbitration raises for Dallas Keuchel, Jason Castro, Evan Gattis and Chris Carter. The Astros will try to add another starting pitcher to what was a top-heavy rotation in 2015, he adds. McTaggart also notes that Carter’s tremendous late-season surge complicates the team’s decision on whether not he should be tendered a contract, though it may also have helped to create a trade market for Carter’s services.

Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches.  It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.

“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”

Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities.  Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
  • The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal.  Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked.  Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
  • Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.”  Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal.  Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto.  The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
  • One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM.  In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
  • Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards.  One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness.  At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
  • One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”  Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock.  The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
  • Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch.  The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period.  The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
  • At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill’s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real.  One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
  • Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters.  Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer.  The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.
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