State Of The Trade: Volquez For Hamilton
It is a useful exercise to take a look back at trades that were made, to help evaluate exactly how they are going for both teams. With the news of Edinson Volquez receiving a 50-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, now seems like a good time to evaluate the deal that sent Volquez and Danny Herrera from Texas to Cincinnati in exchange for Josh Hamilton.
As Tim pointed out earlier this afternoon, the suspension itself does very little to impact Volquez's value to the Reds. His 50-game suspension begins tomorrow, with Volquez on the DL. He had Tommy John Surgery on August 3, 2009, so even the most optimistic projections wouldn't have had him back before the 50 games is up.
As to who is ahead in this deal, it is hard to say. Both Hamilton and Volquez have had one fantastic season with their post-trade teams. Hamilton posted a .304/.371/.530 line with Texas in 2008 during his age-27 season. Volquez, during that same season, put up a 17-6, 3.21 ERA line in his age-24 season.
By Baseball Prospectus' Wins Above Replacement Player, Volquez was worth 5.3 WARP in 2008, Hamilton checking in at 5.5. As per Fangraphs.com's WAR, Volquez was slightly ahead, 4.3 to 4.1. Both had injury-marred 2009 seasons, and have posted roughly equivalent value for their two teams so far.
Moving forward, Hamilton is off to a rough start in 2010, at .222/.333/.390 through his first 48 plate appearances. Volquez, of course, won't be able to help Cincinnati until later this season if at all.
With his litany of injuries, it is hard to count on Hamilton to recapture his 2007 form. Volquez is coming back from Tommy John surgery, a fairly common occurrence. Volquez is also significantly younger; Hamilton turns 29 on May 21, Volquez turns just 27 on July 3. However, projecting pitchers is almost always harder than projecting hitters.
This challenge trade seems too close to call right now, but Volquez seems likelier to regain elite player status. More money, however, is due to Hamilton. He earns $3.25MM in 2010, as he was arbitration-eligible this past offseason, while Volquez makes just $445K (and the Reds won't need to pay him for the next 50 games, or roughly a third of that salary).
In the meantime? Danny Herrera keeps on keeping on, following a 3.06 ERA in 61 2/3 innings in 2009 with a strong start in 2010. Just 25, Herrera may be the difference-maker in this deal after all.
Odds & Ends: Davis, Cano, Athletics, Pirates
As today's games try to top Ubaldo Jimenez's no-hitter and the Mets' marathon victory, let's browse a few links….
- The Astros will likely make a roster room to clear the way for Lance Berkman's return, tweets Alyson Footer of MLB.com.
- A Mets official told Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated that the club has to "win now" (link goes to Twitter). Earlier today, Mike Jacobs was DFA'd in a move that could clear space for Ike Davis.
- Benjamin Kabak at River Ave. Blues looks back at the Alfonso Soriano–for-Alex Rodriguez trade, and how the Rangers had the opportunity to select Robinson Cano as a second player in the deal. Instead, they chose Joaquin Arias. Think they regret that one?
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post lists ten players and managers who are on the hot seat two weeks into the 2010 season, with Jerry Manuel and Dave Trembley earning the top two spots. Mike Puma of the New York Post writes that Mets' players have jumped to Manuel's defense, while Bill Madden of the New York Daily News thinks that Orioles' players have given up on Trembley.
- With Michael Wuertz nearly ready to come off the DL, the Athletics will have to clear a roster spot for him. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle runs down a few of the players whose status could be in jeopary, including the recently acquired Edwar Ramirez and the out-of-options Chad Gaudin.
- The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Dejan Kovacevic examines the Pirates' organization in search of pitchers with ace potential.
- In a mailbag, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer defends the Indians' signings of supposed "marginal, aging players." He also notes that if the Indians end up losing the Cliff Lee deal, they have no one to blame but themselves, since they scouted many of the same Phillies prospects when they discussed a potential CC Sabathia trade in 2008.
- Fantasy baseball season is in full swing, and saves are at a premium as always. Don't forget to follow @closernews to keep up with the ever-changing late-inning scenarios in Major League Baseball!
When Should Rangers Call Up Smoak?
The Texas Rangers are facing an impending decision on whether to call super-prospect Justin Smoak up to replace struggling first baseman Chris Davis. Smoak, who is ranked as baseball's ninth-best prospect by Keith Law and 13th overall by Baseball America, currently remains in Triple A. Let's take a look at the pros and cons of bringing Smoak to the majors in the near future.
Pros:
- As MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith pointed out in his piece on calling up top prospects, if a player makes his major league debut after April 19th, he won't earn a full year's service time this season. So the Rangers could call up Smoak as early as this week and still have delayed his free agency by a year.
- Davis is off to a homerless, .229/.289/.343 start to the 2010 campaign, while Smoak has been tearing the Pacific Coast League up (.353/.500/.647 with two homers).
- When the Rangers drafted Smoak in 2008, Baseball America praised his fielding, citing "Gold Glove-caliber actions and soft hands." Davis's defense at first base is slightly below average (career -2.7 UZR/150).
- The AL West race looks wide open, and the Rangers presumably want to field their best possible lineup immediately. Delaying Smoak's debut for another month and a half could compromise their chances of contending.
Cons:
- If Texas calls Smoak up before late May or early June, he will earn enough service time to eventually qualify as a Super Two, hitting arbitration a year early.
- It's probably too soon in the season to give up on Davis, considering his career numbers include a .481 slugging percentage and a 162-game average of 30 homers.
- There's no guarantee that Smoak will thrive at the major league level right away. Even a can't-miss prospect like Matt Wieters posted a mere .263/.308/.369 line in the first 70 games of his career.
- Smoak's underwhelming Triple A numbers last season also suggest he could use more seasoning, though they can be partially attributed to a strained oblique.
Smoak will almost certainly wear a Rangers' uniform at some point this season. Whether that happens before June depends on a variety of factors, both on-field and off-field. The bet here is that the Rangers give Davis at least another week or two to heat up. If he continues to struggle, we could see Smoak in the big leagues sooner rather than later.
Largest Contracts In Team History
We've already looked at the largest contracts by service time and position, so let's now dig up the largest contracts ever given out by each of the 30 teams. These are in terms of guaranteed money only, but some could end up being even larger because of incentives and option years.
- Angels: Torii Hunter, five years, $90MM
- Astros: Carlos Lee, six years, $100MM
- Athletics: Eric Chavez, six years, $66MM
- Blue Jays: Vernon Wells, seven years, $126MM
- Braves: Chipper Jones, six years, $90MM
- Brewers: Ryan Braun, eight years, $45MM
- Cardinals: Matt Holliday, seven years, $120MM
- Cubs: Alfonso Soriano, eight years, $136MM
- Diamondbacks: Randy Johnson, four years, $53.4MM
- Dodgers: Kevin Brown, seven years, $105MM
- Giants: Barry Zito, seven years, $126MM
- Indians: Travis Hafner, four years, $57MM
- Mariners: Ichiro Suzuki, five years, $90MM
- Marlins: Hanley Ramirez, six years, $70MM
- Mets: Johan Santana, six years, $137.5MM
- Nationals: Ryan Zimmerman, five years, $45MM
- Orioles: Miguel Tejada, six years, $72MM
- Padres: Jake Peavy, three years, $52MM
- Phillies: Chase Utley, seven years, $85MM
- Pirates: Jason Kendall, six years, $60MM
- Rangers: Alex Rodriguez, ten years, $252MM
- Rays: Wilson Alvarez, five years, $35MM
- Reds: Ken Griffey Jr., nine years, $116.5MM
- Red Sox: Manny Ramirez, eight years, $160MM
- Rockies: Todd Helton, nine years, $141.5MM
- Royals: Gil Meche & Mike Sweeney, both five years, $55MM
- Tigers: Miguel Cabrera, eight years, $152.3MM
- Twins: Joe Mauer, eight years, $184MM
- White Sox: Frank Thomas, seven years, $64.4MM
- Yankees: Alex Rodriguez, ten years, $275MM
Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.
Olney’s Latest: Smoak, Davis, Ripken, Mathis, Lowell
In today's blog post at ESPN (Insider required and recommended), Buster Olney writes that Rangers' first base prospect Justin Smoak is off to a strong start in Triple-A and could push Chris Davis either out the door or onto the bench. Smoak is hitting .300/.475/.567 with two homers in 40 plate appearances so far this year, while Davis is off to a .194/.265/.290 start with 10 strikeouts in 34 plate appearances.
Here's the rest of Olney's rumors…
- A possible reason why Orioles owner Peter Angelos declined to hire Cal Ripken Jr. is because of "concern about whether the addition of the legend would lead to office politics and ugly fallout."
- With the Angels carrying three catchers, Olney speculates that Boston could be a trade match for Jeff Mathis, and wonders if the talks could be expanded to include Mike Lowell given the Halos' troubles at the hot corner. Red Sox catchers have thrown out just one of 17 base stealers this season, and Mathis has thrown out 23% of would-be base stealers in his career.
Odds & Ends: Penn, Veras, Beimel, Mientkiewicz
Links for Friday…
- Hayden Penn cleared waivers and now has until Monday to decide whether to report to Triple A or become a free agent, according to MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter). The Pirates designated Penn for assignment Monday.
- Jose Veras, who was designated for assignment Wednesday, has been outrighted to Triple A by the Marlins, according to Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post (Twitter link). This presumably means Veras cleared waivers.
- The Rockies called up Joe Beimel, according to the team. Beimel's deal pays him $850K in the major leagues.
- ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick heard that Bret Boone is trying to recruit Doug Mientkiewicz and Bobby Kielty for his Golden League team (Twitter link).
- ESPN.com's Keith Law offers updates on some of the top prospects eligible for this June's draft, including Bryce Brentz, an outfielder who Law considers "one of the top college bats in this draft."
- Fred Lewis and his representatives had been asking the Giants for a trade for nearly a year, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.
- FanGraphs' Jack Moore calls the Lewis deal a no-brainer for the Blue Jays and a head-scratcher for the Giants.
- Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun takes us on a must-read behind the scenes look at the Adeiny Hechavarria signing.
- Recent injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron will test Boston's depth, says WEEI.com's Alex Speier.
- Matt Eddy of Baseball America brings us up to date on the latest round of minor league transactions. Among the notable players released: Brady Clark and Curtis Thigpen.
Top Trade Chips: AL West
We've completed the National League, so now it's time to jump over to the so-called junior circuit…
- Angels: They moved three pretty good young players to get Scott Kazmir last season, so they might prefer to hold onto the rest of their top prospects. Their best chip is someone you may not have heard of, out of options catcher Bobby Wilson. He's on the 25-man roster but has barely played as the third stringer, yet how many teams would love to have a 27-year old catcher with a very good defensive rep, a .290/.345/.425 batting line in 820 Triple-A plate appearances, and six years of team control left? Pretty much all of them. He'll never clear waivers if the Halos try to send him back to the minors.
- Athletics: Oakland has plenty of young pitching, but Billy Beane likes to hang on to those kind of guys, and for good reason. With ten infielders on the 40-man roster, someone like Jake Fox or Eric Patterson could be moved, as could outfielders Travis Buck or Gabe Gross since Michael Taylor is coming fast. Plus there's always Ben Sheets.
- Mariners: Jack Zduriencik surrendered a good amount of prospect depth this offseason by acquiring Cliff Lee, but no one will argue with that move. Dustin Ackley, the second overall pick in 2009, will make Jose Lopez expendable in short order, and they could choose to make one of two minor league outfielders – Michael Saunders or Greg Halman – available. Seattle's best trade chip might be their potential ability to absorb some money.
- Rangers: Texas is absolutely loaded with young players, so they have plenty of pieces to offer. They can move Chris Davis because Justin Smoak is knocking on the door, or they could move Derek Holland because Martin Perez isn't too far away. They dangled Max Ramirez this winter, and outfielder David Murphy is about to get expensive through arbitration, so he could find himself on the block. Bottom line: the Rangers have the pieces to go out and get anything they need or want.
Stark On Bell, Nathan, Oswalt, Dunn
Let's check in on the Rumblings and Grumblings of ESPN's Jayson Stark…
- One exec Stark spoke to implied the Padres may not be motivated to trade closer Heath Bell because he's under team control through 2011 and signed at $4MM for 2010. Bell's salary could double in '11, though, and I'm not convinced the Padres will want to pay it.
- Stark talked to a GM who thinks Bell makes sense for the Twins as a backup plan in case Joe Nathan needs a 16-month Tommy John recovery period to get back to normal. Stark learned that a significant part of Nathan's salary this year is insured, so that frees up some money this year. But again, will the Twins want to pay nearly $20MM to two relievers in 2011?
- Should Houston's troubles continue, Stark wonders if Roy Oswalt would consider waiving his no-trade clause. He says a friend of Oswalt believes the pitcher's preferred destinations are Atlanta, St. Louis, and Texas. It's hard to see those clubs making a play for Oswalt, especially with his large salaries for '10 and '11.
- Stark guesses the Nationals are more likely to trade Adam Dunn before the deadline than sign him to an extension. Last we heard, ESPN's Buster Olney said there were no ongoing extension talks.
- Twins catching prospect Wilson Ramos has been labeled as one of the game's best trade chips, but assistant GM Rob Antony says that "right now, we'd lean toward keeping him."
- If he can't find a big league job, Kevin Millar could sign with the St. Paul Saints, where his pro career began. Millar was released by the Cubs on March 30th.
Olney On Cruz, Sanchez, Dye
Buster Olney's ESPN blog is always a good read; here are a few hot stove nuggets to ponder…
- Olney reminds us that Nelson Cruz cleared waivers in the spring of '08. That's always a good time of year to sneak a guy through. At 26, Cruz had struggled in the Majors in '07 but raked in 187 Triple A plate appearances. Because he figured things out later in his career, he won't reach arbitration until after this season at age 30.
- Olney notes that Jonathan Sanchez "seemed to come off the board" as a trade candidate after his July 10th no-hitter last year. The Giants have Sanchez under team control through 2012. Matt Cain is under contract through '12, and Tim Lincecum is under team control through '13.
- Olney on the Jermaine Dye-racism suggestion: "To suggest that there is a general reluctance, across a 30-team landscape, to sign Dye because he is black is completely absurd." Talking to Amalie Benjamin of the Boston Globe, Bill Hall asks more nuanced questions.
Rangers May Pursue Miles
According to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, the Rangers "may explore interest" in Aaron Miles, recently released by the Cincinnati Reds.
Miles could fill in for the injured Ian Kinsler, though he'd be unlikely to approach anything like Kinsler's production.
For instance, Miles has 16 career home runs in 2,423 plate appearances. Kinsler hit 31 home runs in the 2009 season alone.
Sullivan says that Miles would likely begin at Triple-A.