Chris Taylor Drawing Widespread Interest
Super utility player Chris Taylor is drawing interest from various teams and could sign in the coming days, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links). He lists the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Angels and Nationals as teams that have been in recent contact with Taylor’s camp. The current CBA expires at 11:59pm ET on Wednesday, December 1, leading to a frenzy of transactions in recent days as teams are trying to tick items of their to-do lists before the lockout and transaction freeze that are expected to follow. Morosi says that Taylor could sign by Wednesday, potentially getting in just under the wire.
The fact that various teams are interested in Taylor’s services is no surprise, given his extreme defensive versatility. Over his career, Taylor has spent time at every position on the diamond except for catcher, pitcher and first base. In 2021, he appeared in at least eight games at six different positions, and more than 23 games at four different spots. He’s also been an above-average contributor on the offensive side of the game for five consecutive seasons now, by measure of wRC+. Over those five years, he has hit 78 home runs, stolen 50 bases and hit .265/.343/.461 for a wRC+ of 116. The combination of those factors makes it hard to imagine a team that wouldn’t be upgraded by adding Taylor to supplant the least-productive non-catcher in their lineup and slotting him into whatever position they happen to play.
Taking all this under consideration, as well as the fact that Taylor rejected a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, MLBTR predicted Taylor could earn himself a contract of four years and $64MM, AAV of $16MM. However, the free agent market has been quite robust so far, with the majority of players outearning their projections as teams seem to be rushing to get business done before this week’s expected lockout and subsequent transaction freeze. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Taylor, 31, surpass that estimate, either in length or dollars.
The Dodgers are a fairly logical suitor, given that they’ve been utilizing Taylor’s skills for the past five-plus seasons. Although they still have one more season of Trea Turner, whom they acquired at the trade deadline, they’ve also just seen Corey Seager sign on with the Texas Rangers. At the moment, Gavin Lux would probably be pencilled in as the second baseman, but he also has positional versatility and could be bumped into a bench/utility role. In the outfield, Mookie Betts and AJ Pollock should have two spots accounted for, with Cody Bellinger likely taking up a third. But after Bellinger’s miserable 2021 campaign, adding Taylor could provide some insurance in case he can’t bounce back to his MVP-winning form from a couple years ago.
Just like the Dodgers, the Blue Jays have also just watched one of their best players depart for Texas, as Marcus Semien is now a Ranger as well. Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have two infield spots spoken for, with Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal and Breyvic Valera on hand as options for second or third base. Taylor could potentially take Semien’s spot and bump everyone else down on the depth chart.
The Mariners have already brought Adam Frazier into their infield mix this week, but seem determined to add more. Morosi lists Taylor, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez as infielders they are considering. Baez has since reportedly signed with the Tigers, but Taylor and Bryant both make sense as potential adds at third base, with Abraham Toro then platooning with Frazier at second. Taylor also started his career in Seattle before moving to the Dodgers, which would make for a nice homecoming story. The club has been aggressive in trying to build on a strong 2021 campaign, having also added Robbie Ray in recent days.
Just like Seattle, their division rivals in Anaheim have also been active in gearing up for 2022. They’ve added pitchers Noah Syndergaard, Michael Lorenzen and Aaron Loup, as well as acquiring infielder Tyler Wade from the Yankees. Taylor would be an upgrade over Wade or David Fletcher for the middle infield, as well as providing insurance for an outfield with a few unproven options, as youngsters Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell have shown promise but haven’t locked down jobs just yet.
The Nationals winning the bidding would be a surprise, given that they underwent a huge fire sale at the trade deadline and have been fairly inactive so far this offseason. But they seem determined to avoid a lengthy rebuild and will be aiming to return to contention while they still have the elite production of Juan Soto, whom they control for three more seasons. Other than Soto and Josh Bell, there’s almost no certainty in the team’s lineup, making it very easy for Taylor to be slotted in.
There’s one team that’s apparently not in the mix, however, as Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Red Sox don’t seem to be heavily involved.
Blue Jays Sign Seven Players To Minor League Deals
The Blue Jays announced Monday that they’ve signed the following seven players to minor league deals: right-handers David Phelps, Jose De Leon and Casey Lawrence; outfielders Mallex Smith and Nathan Lukes; left-hander Matt Gage; and catcher Kellin Deglan. Phelps will earn a $1.75MM salary if he makes the club, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.
Phelps, 35, seemed on his way to an interesting year for the Blue Jays in 2021 until surgery for a lat strain ended his season in May. Phelps hasn’t pitched 35 innings in a season since 2017, but he has bat-missing ability once fully recovered from surgery. Phelps’ best year was 2016, when he posted a 2.28 ERA in 86 2/3 innings for the Marlins.
De Leon, 29, was once considered one of the 30 best prospects in all of baseball as a member of the Dodgers organization. He was dealt to the Rays for Logan Forsythe in January 2017, beginning a four-year period in which he pitched only 12 2/3 innings in the Majors in large part due to March 2018 Tommy John surgery. The Reds traded for De Leon in November 2019. Though he made the Reds’ Opening Day rotation this year, De Leon was quickly bumped to the bullpen and was released by July. The Red Sox picked him up on a minor league deal in August, but he made only two appearances for the club’s Florida Complex League team.
Lawrence, 34, worked 78 2/3 big league innings in 2017-18 for the Blue Jays and Mariners, posting a 6.64 ERA. He spent 2019 with the Hiroshima Carp, and then landed a minor league deal with the Twins prior to the 2020 season. He soaked up 86 innings for the Jays’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates in ’21.
Smith, 28, led all of MLB with 46 steals for the Mariners in 2019. He ranked 23rd in MLB that year in sprint speed, but was unable to recapture the magic of his career-best 2018 season with the Rays. In that campaign, Smith posted a 118 wRC+ and 3.5 WAR. After ’18, the Rays traded Smith and Jake Fraley to the Mariners for Mike Zunino, Guillermo Heredia and Michael Plassmeyer. Smith was booted from the Mariners’ 40-man roster in September 2020, subsequently landing minor league deals with the Mets, Reds, and Blue Jays that have yet to lead to a return to the Majors.
Lukes, Gage, and Deglan do not have Major League experience. Lukes, a 27-year-old outfielder, posted a 115 wRC+ for the Rays’ Triple-A club this year. Deglan is a 29-year-old catcher who toiled for the Yankees’ and Blue Jays’ Triple-A clubs in ’21. Gage, 28, is a lefty reliever who posted a 5.57 ERA for the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A team this season. He recently found his way to the Venados de Mazatlan in the Mexican Pacific Winter League.
Kevin Gausman Expected To Sign In Next Few Days; Blue Jays, Giants Are Finalists
7:44PM: According to multiple industry sources, Gausman will receive a five-year deal worth around $100MM in guaranteed money, Morosi reports in his latest Twitter update.
TODAY, 1:09PM: MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Giants “have a good chance to retain Kevin Gausman, based on the current tenor of negotiations.”
NOVEMBER 27: Kevin Gausman appears to be close to picking his new team, as MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links) reports that the free agent right-hander will likely make his decision within the next two or three days. The Blue Jays are one of the finalists for Gausman’s services, though it isn’t known how many other teams are also still in the running. The Jays, Giants, Angels, Red Sox, Mets, and Mariners have all been linked to Gausman’s market at various points this winter.
There is enough interest in Gausman that “a five-year deal is increasingly likely,” Morosi writes. This is actually less than the six-year, $138MM deal that MLBTR projected for Gausman (who ranked fifth on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents), but it is still a healthy commitment for a pitcher entering his age-31 season. Beyond Gausman’s strong numbers over the last two seasons, he can also be signed without any draft pick compensation required, making him an even more attractive candidate for teams.
For example, the Angels have already surrendered one draft pick in order to sign the qualifying offer-rejecting Noah Syndergaard. Therefore, Gausman is probably a more enticing addition for the Angels than Robbie Ray, who is the last remaining free agent starter who rejected a QO (though the Angels reportedly had some interest in Ray earlier in the offseason).
The Blue Jays may have two compensatory picks coming back their way should Ray and Marcus Semien sign elsewhere. That frees the Jays up to perhaps sign another QO free agent since they know they’ll be getting at least one extra pick anyway, or maybe deal a notable prospect if they feel they can replenish their farm system with extra selections in the 2022 draft.
Gausman has long been on Toronto’s radar, as the club had interest in the righty in each of the last two offseasons. Last winter, the Jays reportedly offered Gausman three years and around $40MM before he opted to bet on himself by accepting the Giants’ qualifying offer — a very wise move in hindsight, given what Gausman is now poised to earn this offseason. Should the Jays win the bidding for Gausman, he will immediately bolster a rotation that has already lost Steven Matz to the Cardinals and may also lose Ray. Gausman would join Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Alek Manoah in the starting five, with other starting options like Nate Pearson, Ross Stripling, or Anthony Kay now battling for the fifth starter’s job.
Assuming he does agree to a deal soon, Gausman will join the long list of major free agent pitchers who have already landed deals before the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1. Syndergaard, Matz, Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Anthony DeSclafani, and Andrew Heaney have signed, though obviously several other prominent arms (i.e. Ray, Max Scherzer, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodon, Jon Gray) are still available.
Blue Jays To Sign Yimi Garcia
Nov. 28: Ben Nicholson-Smith clarified on Twitter that the bonus for pitching 60 innings or appearing in 60 games is actually $500K, not the $250K he previously reported.
Nov. 27, 11:07PM: The 2024 option has a vesting element, as per Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (Twitter links). The Jays have a $5MM club option for 2024 with a $1MM buyout, but that third year becomes guaranteed at $6MM if Garcia tosses 60 innings or makes 60 appearances in 2023, or if he pitches at least 110 innings or 110 appearances in 2022-23 combined.
Garcia will receive a $1MM signing bonus, a $4MM salary in 2022, and $5MM in 2023. Garcia also receives a $250K bonus if he hits the 50-inning mark, and other $250K bonuses at the 55-inning and 60-inning thresholds. An unknown team offered Garcia a more lucrative multi-year deal, Nicholson-Smith writes, but the reliever rejected that deal in order to join a Blue Jays club that looks to be closer to contending.
8:14PM: The Blue Jays have agreed to a deal with right-hander Yimi Garcia, as per former player Carlos Baerga via Instagram (hat tip to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi). It is a two-year contract worth $11MM for the 31-year-old Garcia, as per TSN’s Scott Mitchell, and the Jays also have a club option for 2024. Garcia is represented by agent Kelvin Nova.
Garcia comes to Toronto after something of a tough end to his 2021 season. After the Marlins dealt Garcia to the Astros at the trade deadline, Garcia posted a 5.48 ERA over 21 1/3 innings with Houston. While his strikeout and walk rates improved following the trade, he had some bad luck in the form of a very low 42.6% strand rate. With a 2.98 SIERA for his time as an Astro, the argument can certainly be made that Garcia deserved better, and things didn’t really improve thanks to a couple of rough outings in the playoffs.
On the whole, Garcia had a 4.21 ERA/3.61 ERA over 57 2/3 combined innings in 2021, with a 25.3% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate that were both better than the league average. Garcia allowed quite a bit of hard contact, but he continued to boast one of baseball’s very best fastball spin rates. Perhaps most promisingly, Garcia’s home run rate was a manageable 14.5%, after the long ball led to a lot of issues when he pitched for the Dodgers in 2018-19.
Those home run concerns notwithstanding, Garcia has been a pretty solid bullpen arm for much of his career, posting a 3.60 ERA over 232 1/3 career Major League innings. Garcia has rebounded nicely from a 2016-18 stretch that was essentially a wash due to injuries, as he tossed only 30 2/3 combined frames in those three years due to knee problems, biceps problems, and Tommy John surgery. Los Angeles elected to non-tender Garcia after the 2019 season, and he was quite effective with the Marlins after signing with Miami that winter.
A two-year deal is a nice score for Garcia in the wake of this career history, and also a reasonable price for Toronto to pay for a veteran relief arm with postseason experience. The Jays have generally not spent much on relief pitching during Ross Atkins’ tenure as general manager, with the partial exception of their one-year, $5.5MM deal with Kirby Yates last offseason that immediately went south when Yates needed TJ surgery of his own. Garcia’s health history contains some obvious red flags, though he hasn’t had any true injury problems since the start of the 2019 campaign, apart from a month missed in 2020 during the Marlins’ COVID-19 outbreak.
A swath of bullpen injuries badly hampered the Jays for the first few months of the 2021 season, and while the numbers began to generally improve, the Blue Jays lacked depth beyond their top quartet of closer Jordan Romano, Trevor Richards, Adam Cimber, and Tim Mayza. That group is all back next season, and with Garcia added to the mix along with other pitchers (i.e. Julian Merryweather, Ryan Borucki) that will hopefully be healthier, the Blue Jays are aiming to turn their relief corps from a weakness into a strength.
Mariners, Angels Among Teams Showing Interest In Kevin Gausman
The Mariners and Angels are both showing some degree of interest in free-agent righty Kevin Gausman, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Gausman has also been tied to the Blue Jays and the incumbent Giants, who have been active in the rotation market this week.
Either Seattle or Anaheim would make a sensible destination for Gausman, who enjoyed a breakout showing in San Francisco over the past two seasons. Gausman, who signed a $9MM deal with the 2020 Giants and returned after accepting an $18.9MM qualifying offer, pitched to an even 3.00 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate in 251 innings with San Francisco from 2020-21. Both the Mariners and Angels are known to be on the hunt for rotation upgrades, and Seattle in particular has the payroll space to accommodate any free agent on the market.
The Mariners have just four players on guaranteed contracts for the 2022 season and a fairly light arbitration class beyond slugging right fielder Mitch Haniger. All in all, Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects a payroll in the $59MM range — more than $100MM lower than the franchise’s previous record-high. Seattle is also in the market for a big right-handed bat in the infield, but the only locks in the rotation at present are Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen and Logan Gilbert, so some rotation help is sure to be added as well. The biggest question for the Mariners is whether they’ll take the plunge on a pair of marquee free agents (e.g. Gausman and a big-name infielder) or stick to one free agent and make their other big addition on the trade market.
Down the coast in Orange County, the Angels have already made one significant splash in the rotation, adding Noah Syndergaard on a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $21MM. Syndergaard added another high-upside arm to a rotation mix including reigning MVP Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, Jaime Barria and top prospect Reid Detmers — but the Angels could certainly use a more established and durable arm like Gausman to help stabilize the top end of the rotation.
The question for the Angels is whether they’ll buck a longstanding trend of eschewing long-term deals for pitchers. As recently explored at MLBTR, the last free-agent starting pitcher to whom the Angels committed multiple years was Joe Blanton way back in 2012. The Halos’ recent signing of Aaron Loup was just the third pitcher — free agent or otherwise — the Angels have signed to a multi-year deal since that Blanton signing (the others being a two-year extension for closer Huston Street and a two-year deal buying out Ohtani’s first two arbitration seasons).
The last pitcher the Angels signed for three or more years was C.J. Wilson (five years, $77.5MM) a decade and three general managers ago. The Angels have pursued other free-agent starters on multi-year deals in that time (and reportedly made an offer to Steven Matz this week), but the team has never been comfortable with the top-end prices required to sign those pitchers at the end of the day.
Gausman, now free of a qualifying offer and having repeated his 2020 K-BB% gains over the course of a full season, is likely in position to command a free-agent deal of at least five seasons in length. Gausman ranked fifth on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent rankings at the beginning of the offseason.
Steven Matz Weighing Multiple Offers, Expects To Sign This Week
Nov. 23, 10:08 pm: Matz has at least one two-year offer in hand, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (on Twitter).
Nov. 23, 10:01 am: Matz is weighing offers from each of the Giants, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Cubs, Cardinals, Angels and Mets, Heyman tweets. The Giants’ offer remains on the table even after re-signing DeSclafani.
Nov. 22: The free agent starting pitching market has moved very quickly over the offseason’s first few weeks, and it seems another domino could soon fall. Southpaw Steven Matz is likely to pick his destination before Thanksgiving, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).
Interest in Matz has been robust, with the Red Sox, incumbent Blue Jays, Mets, Dodgers, Cardinals and Angels among teams already rumored to have interest. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network adds the Tigers, Cubs and Giants to that mix. The Mets have put forth a formal offer, although they’re joined in that regard by seven other clubs, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (on Twitter).
Matz is coming off a nice season in Toronto, rebounding from an awful 2020 campaign to toss 150 2/3 innings of 3.82 ERA ball. The 30-year-old didn’t miss too many bats, but he only walked 6.6% of opponents and induced grounders at a solid 45.5% clip. Matz’s 4.12 SIERA wasn’t quite as impressive as his ERA, but both his actual run prevention and peripherals have typically hovered right around 4.00.
That’s valuable mid-rotation production, although Matz has previously had some issues with the long ball. Home runs weren’t an issue in 2021, but he served up an astonishing 14 round-trippers in just 30 2/3 frames with the Mets in 2020. That showing seemingly marked for an ugly end to a generally solid tenure in Queens, but the New York front office apparently has interest in bringing him back into the fold after his bounceback showing this year.
Each of the Tigers, Cubs and Giants entered the offseason known to be targeting rotation help. The Cubs claimed Wade Miley off waivers from the division-rival Reds. Detroit has already signed Eduardo Rodríguez, while San Francisco has reunited with Anthony DeSclafani and are seemingly on the verge of a deal with Alex Wood. None of that trio has as marked a rotation need as they did just two weeks ago, but there’s enough uncertainty on all three clubs’ staffs that they can and probably will make another rotation addition of some sort this winter.
The Jays considered making Matz an $18.4MM qualifying offer but ultimately decided against it. Toronto won’t receive a compensatory pick if he were to sign elsewhere, then, while adding Matz wouldn’t cost another team a draft pick.
Blue Jays Claim Shaun Anderson From Padres
The Blue Jays announced they’ve claimed right-hander Shaun Anderson off waivers from the Padres. Additionally, Toronto selected right-handers Hagen Danner and Bowden Francis, lefty Zach Logue and infielder Leo Jimenez to the 40-man roster to keep them from selection in the Rule 5 draft.
Now best known for his inclusion in a lopsided swap that sent LaMonte Wade Jr. from Minnesota to San Francisco, Anderson possesses a big slider and plenty of velocity that have piqued the interest of several clubs. Despite being torched for an 8.49 ERA in 23 2/3 innings this season, Anderson spent time with four different teams. He’s now failed to clear waivers four times in the past six months, demonstrating the quality of his raw arsenal. The 27-year-old still has a minor league option remaining, and the Jays will hope to tap into his raw talent and coax out some better results in 2022.
The 20-year-old Jimenez ranks 11th among Jays prospects at MLB.com and posted one of the more ludicrous lines fans will see, hitting .320/.523/.392 on the season. That’s not exactly a tiny sample, either; Jimenez tallied 262 plate appearances and reached base a comical 137 times. In addition to a ridiculous 20.6% walk rate, Jimenez was also plunked 25 times. He can play both middle infield positions but won’t realistically be an option until at least 2023, as he’s yet to even reach the Double-A level.
Bogh Francis and Logue rank on the back end of MLB.com’s Jays Top 30 and both posted sub-4.00 ERAs with promising strikeout rates. Francis joined the organization in the trade that sent Rowdy Tellez to the Brewers. Logue is a a former ninth-rounder who turned in an eye-opening 28.2% strikeout rate against a minuscule 5.2% walk rate.
As for Danner, he’s 2017 second-rounder who moved from catcher to the mound this season and posted a brilliant 2.02 ERA, 29.4% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate through 35 2/3 innings in High-A — his first pro experience on the mound. He’s still new to pitching, but with a debut like that, it’s understandable that Toronto had no interest in potentially losing him in the Rule 5 Draft.
Blue Jays Rumors: Ray, Matz, Gausman, Rotation, Biggio
The Blue Jays locked up one key rotation member for the long haul this week, signing Jose Berrios to a seven-year, $131MM contract extension, but they’re still hoping to retain a pair of key lefties who are now free agents. Both American League Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and fellow southpaw Steven Matz are “priorities” for Toronto, writes FanSided’s Robert Murray.
The Berrios extension shouldn’t be viewed as a deterrent in their efforts to sign another pitcher — far from it. Berrios is slated to earn $10MM next year in the first season of that deal — a slight bit less than he’d likely have earned by going through the arbitration process. And while Berrios adds another notable salary to the long-term ledger, southpaw Hyun Jin Ryu and his $20MM salary will be off the books after the 2023 season. Randal Grichuk is also off the books post-2023, so the 2023 season is really the only one in which the combination of the Berrios extension and a multi-year deal for another arm (e.g. Ray) would substantially impact the payroll.
Whether it’s Ray, Matz or another free-agent target, another rotation addition will fit nicely into the long-term payroll, as Springer and Berrios are now the only two players guaranteed anything in 2024 and beyond. That applies to Kevin Gausman as well, whom MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports to be another target for the Jays. The Jays were linked to Gausman in both the 2019-20 offseason and the 2020-21 offseason, so it’s hardly a surprise to see them in the mix again — although the righty’s price tag is now substantially higher than in either of the past two offseasons. The Jays, Morosi adds, have also spoken with the Marlins about their starting pitching surplus.
One player unlikely to change hands, even if the Jays do go the trade route to add to the rotation, is infielder/outfielder Cavan Biggio. Although the 26-year-old hit just .224/.322/.356 in a 2021 season that was cut in half by neck and back injuries, GM Ross Atkins voiced confidence in Biggio’s ability to rebound during the GM Meetings (link via Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star). Atkins repeatedly talked Biggio up as an option either at second or third base — which spot depends on the rest of their offseason dealings — and as Chisholm notes, it seems unlikely Toronto would trade someone who was viewed as a key long-term piece prior to the 2021 season with his value at an all-time low.
The Jays have a wide-open slate of possibilities thanks to a cost-controlled young core, a relatively clean payroll outlook and a good bit of available financial resources. Ray said following this week’s Cy Young win that his camp is talking with the Toronto front office “on a daily basis” but also “testing the free-agent market” (link via Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi).
Given the accelerated nature of the starting pitching market so far, it’s possible the Jays’ pursuits of Ray and Matz will be resolved, one way or another, before they begin sorting through the infield needs. Regardless of the order in which it plays out, though, it seems likely they’ll come away from the offseason with at least one more starter and an addition to the infield — be it via free agency or trade.
Blue Jays Sign Jose Berrios To Seven-Year Extension
12:45pm: Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reports that Berrios received a $5MM signing bonus and will be paid $10MM next season (Twitter link). He’ll then earn salaries of $15MM, in 2023, $17MM in 2024, $18MM in 2025-26, and $24MM in 2027-28.
That breakdown indicates Berrios’ opt-out decision will come with a total of $48MM remaining on the contract. However, Davidi adds that escalators based on Berrios’ 2025-26 stats could boost his 2027-28 salaries by $5MM apiece. If he triggers all the escalators, Berrios would decide between the remaining two years and $58MM or reentering the market in advance of his age-33 season.
7:30am: The Blue Jays’ first big move of the offseason is to lock up one of their own, as they announced Thursday that they’ve signed right-hander Jose Berrios to a seven-year extension that will reportedly guarantee him $131MM. Berrios is represented by Wasserman.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected Berrios would earn just shy of $11MM for 2022 in his final trip through arbitration, meaning this extension effectively buys out six free agent years at $120MM, although the actual breakdown of the contract is not known at this point. Berrios will be able to opt out after the fifth year of the deal and has limited no-trade protection. There are also escalators in the deal that could increase the value of the contract by $10MM.
The 27-year-old Berrios was acquired from the Twins at July’s trade deadline and had been set to reach free agency after the 2022 season. Instead, the Blue Jays will keep him around for an extended stay, hoping that he anchors their rotation well into the future. This extension runs through 2028, which will be his age-34 season.
Prior to that trade, Berrios had spent his entire career in the Twins organization since they selected him in the supplemental first round of the draft in 2012, 32nd overall, out of Papa Juan High School in Bayamon, Puerto Rico. He had just turned 18 years old at the time. He quickly rose through the ranks of the minors, making his debut in April of 2016, a month before his 22nd birthday. Although he struggled in that first taste of MLB action, he broke out in a big way the following season. In 2017, he logged 145 2/3 innings with an ERA of 3.89 and has been remarkably reliable and consistent since then. He made 32 starts in each of 2018, 2019 and 2021, throwing at least 192 innings each year along with an ERA between 3.52 and 3.84. He also made 12 starts in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, with his ERA at an even 4.00. In the five-year stretch from 2017 to 2021, he threw a total of 793 1/3 innings with an ERA of 3.74, strikeout rate of 24.4%, walk rate of 7% and groundball rate of 41.4%. His 15.4 fWAR in that time ranks 14th among all pitchers in baseball.
The Blue Jays clearly valued Berrios very highly based on the package they sent to the Twins, with both Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson being highly-touted prospects. At the time of the trade, Martin was only one year removed from being the 5th overall selection in the 2020 draft and was considered to be one of the top-25 prospects in the game by each of FanGraphs, Baseball America and MLB.com. Woods Richardson was not on Baseball America’s list but was 49th at FanGraphs and 68th at MLB.com. It was believed by many that this was a steep price to pay for a year and a half of Berrios’s services, but the Blue Jays have doubled down on their belief in him by locking him up for at least four more years on top of that.
This now ranks as one of the largest extensions ever for a starting pitcher between five and six years’ service time, trailing only the $215MM garnered by Clayton Kershaw, the $175MM by Stephen Strasburg and $144MM for Cole Hamels. If Berrios pitches well over the next five years, he can opt out after the 2026 campaign, which will be his age-32 season. That could give him the opportunity to hit free agency and land another solid payday, after having already banked over $100MM in career earnings.
The Blue Jays had some long-term uncertainty in their rotation, with Berrios and Ross Stripling set to reach free agency after 2022 and Hyun-Jin Ryu after 2023, leaving youngsters like Alek Manoah and Nate Pearson as the only future options. Locking Berrios down through 2028 provides some much-needed stability as they look to complement that group this offseason.
The club’s 2022 payroll is currently sitting around $115MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Their opening day number in 2021 was $135MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, giving them about $20MM of space to work with before they reach last year’s number. However, the club may also increase spending this year, which would give them even more ability to supplement the roster. It’s unknown exactly how high they anticipate the budget to go between now and the spring, but they have run payrolls over $160MM in years past.
The club has already been connected in rumors to Justin Verlander, Andrew Heaney and Eduardo Rodriguez, the latter having signed with the Tigers yesterday. Despite winning 91 games in 2021, the Jays somehow finished fourth place in the AL East, one game away from a Wild Card berth. With Robbie Ray, Steven Matz and Marcus Semien all now free agents, the club still has work to do in order to stay afloat in that cutthroat environment. Extending Berrios doesn’t necessarily improve the 2022 club on paper, but it should serve as a signal to other free agents that the team is committed to do what it takes to be competitive for the foreseeable future.
Hector Jose Torres Donato (Twitter link) was the first to report the news of the seven-year extension. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet first had the $131 guarantee (Twitter link). Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the opt-out and no-trade protection (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first mentioned escalators (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of MLB Network first reported the $10MM value of the escalators (Twitter link).
Image Courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Robbie Ray, Corbin Burnes Win Cy Young Awards
The Baseball Writers Association of America revealed the results of Cy Young award balloting this evening. Robbie Ray of the Blue Jays (now a free agent) and Corbin Burnes of the Brewers were named the American League and National League winners, respectively.
Ray claimed the AL award in resounding fashion, an achievement made all the more remarkable by his 2020 struggles. The southpaw dealt with significant control problems during the shortened campaign, leading the D-Backs to trade him to Toronto for essentially no return. After the end of the year, the Jays jumped the market to bring Ray back, buying low on the talented hurler with a one-year, $8MM pact.
That move will go down as one of the best of general manager Ross Atkins’ tenure in Toronto. Not only did Ray get back to heights that saw him make an All-Star team and garner some Cy Young support in 2017, he posted the best showing of his eight-year career. Ray worked 193 1/3 innings of 2.84 ERA ball, striking out an elite 32.1% of batters faced. That swing-and-miss stuff was nothing new, but the 29-year-old also cut his walk rate by almost two thirds. Just one year after walking 17.9% of opponents, Ray doled out free passes at just a 6.9% clip in 2021.
64 American League pitchers tallied 100+ innings this past season. Among that group, Ray ranked 3rd in ERA, strikeout percentage, strikeout/walk rate differential (25.2 percentage points) and SIERA (3.22). He led all AL hurlers in both innings pitched and swinging strike rate (15.5%). That stellar showing earns Ray his first Cy Young award and positions him as one of the top pitchers on this offseason’s free agent market.
As mentioned, the voting tilted quite strongly in Ray’s favor. He appeared on all 30 ballots, receiving 29 first-place votes and one second-place tally. The Yankees’ Gerrit Cole (who received the lone first-place nod that didn’t go to Ray) was the clear second-place finisher, with Lance Lynn of the White Sox coming in third. Nathan Eovaldi, Carlos Rodón, Frankie Montas, Lance McCullers Jr., Liam Hendriks, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito and Raisel Iglesias also received down ballot support.
Voting in the National League was far more contentious, with very little separation between Burnes and the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler at the top. Both players received twelve first-place votes and appeared on all 30 ballots in some capacity, but Burnes’ 14-9 edge in second-place finishes wound up making the difference. The other six first-place votes went to eventual third-place finisher Max Scherzer, who split the season between the Nationals and Dodgers.
To some extent, the battle between Burnes and Wheeler came down to weighing volume versus rate effectiveness. Wheeler tossed an MLB-best 213 1/3 innings, while Burnes worked 167 frames. That’s a rather significant nod in Wheeler’s favor, but Burnes’ per-inning accomplishments were incredible. The Milwaukee righty ranked second among the 62 NL hurlers with 100+ innings in ERA (2.43) while pacing the league in SIERA (2.61), strikeout percentage (35.6%), strikeout/walk rate differential (30.4 percentage points) and swinging strike rate (16.6%).
That’s not to imply Wheeler was ineffective. The Phils’ righty was among the top ten in the league in most rate categories as well. But voters ultimately gave an ever so slight edge to Burnes’ utter domination of opponents, even if that came with a lighter workload than the one Wheeler shouldered.
Like Ray, Burnes takes home his first Cy Young award. He’d finished sixth in last year’s balloting and now looks like one of the game’s top handful of hurlers moving forward. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Brewers, who control Burnes via arbitration through the end of 2024, try to open extension talks with his representatives at CAA Sports over this offseason.
In addition to the three finalists, Walker Buehler, Brandon Woodruff, Kevin Gausman, Adam Wainwright, Julio Urías and Jacob deGrom picked up some down ballot support. Buehler was the only non-finalist to garner any second-place votes, with two runner-up nods.
See full balloting results.
Images courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.