Blue Jays To Sign Andrew Vasquez To Major League Deal
The Blue Jays are signing reliever Andrew Vasquez to a major league contract, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (on Twitter). The southpaw has made twelve big league appearances spread across three seasons, including two outings with the Dodgers late last year.
It’s a bit of a surprise to see Vasquez land a guaranteed 40-man roster spot given his limited MLB track record. He’s tossed just 6 2/3 career innings at the highest level, five of them coming with the 2018 Twins. Yet the 28-year-old impressed a couple teams with a huge showing in Triple-A last season. Vasquez spent the bulk of the season with the Twins’ top affiliate in St. Paul, working to a 3.61 ERA over 42 2/3 innings. More importantly, he struck out an elite 37.4% of batters faced at that level.
The Dodgers were impressed enough with Vasquez’s form to acquire him late on the night of August 31. (Vasquez, who hadn’t been on the Twins’ 40-man roster all season, was eligible to be moved after the MLB trade deadline). That was just before the deadline for teams to add players to their organization in order for them to be eligible for the postseason roster, and L.A. quickly selected the UC Santa Barbara product onto their 40-man roster. They didn’t wind up activating him for any playoff contests, though, and Los Angeles non-tendered him last November.
In his two-game MLB cameo last season, Vasquez threw almost exclusively low-80s curveballs (26 curves, one sinker). He probably won’t continue with an approach quite so extreme over a larger body of work, but it seems the Jays’ front office is intrigued by that bread-and-butter offering. Tim Mayza, Ryan Borucki, Kirby Snead and Tayler Saucedo are among the left-handed bullpen options already on the Toronto 40-man roster. Vasquez still has a minor league option year remaining, though, so the Jays can shuttle him between Toronto and Triple-A Buffalo next season if he sticks on their 40-man all year.
Blue Jays Sign Greg Bird To Minor League Deal
The Blue Jays have signed first baseman Greg Bird to a minor league contract, tweets Keegan Matheson of MLB.com. It’s the second minor league pact of the morning for the Jays, who also inked right-hander Joe Biagini not long ago. Bird wasn’t on a 40-man roster last year and became a minor league free agent at season’s end, thus allowing him to sign a minor league contract even during the MLB lockout.
Now 29 years old, Bird at one point looked like a potential long-term option for the division-rival Yankees at first base. He burst onto the scene in 2015 with a .261/.343/.529 slash for the Yanks, swatting 11 homers and nine doubles in just 178 plate appearances. As a former fifth-round pick who’d posted consistently excellent offensive numbers throughout his minor league contract, Bird looked quite promising.
Injuries, however, completely derailed his time with the Yankees. A torn labrum in his shoulder required surgery that cost him the entire 2016 season. He again captured the intrigue of Yankees fans when he ripped eight home runs in during 2017 Spring Training, but Bird fouled a ball off his ankle at the end of camp and quite literally limped through the first month of the season before hitting the injured list and undergoing surgery. That procedure removed the “os trigonum” bone from his ailing ankle. He returned in late August and again hit well down the stretch (.253/.316/.579, eight homers in 98 plate appearances).
Bird and the Yankees hoped the injuries could be put behind him for the 2018 season, but by the end of Spring Training that year, it became clear that the ankle was still an issue. He underwent surgery to remove bone spurs from that same surgically repaired ankle — a third surgery in three years — and spent the first six weeks of the year on the injured list. When healthy, Bird didn’t resemble his once-productive form, posting just a .199/.286/.386 batting line in 311 plate appearances. His 2019 campaign didn’t go any better, as he developed plantar fasciitis in his other foot and ultimately missing the majority of the season. The Yankees cut him loose following that 2019 campaign.
Bird has since signed with the Rangers and Rockies organizations, most recently spending the 2021 season with Colorado’s Triple-A affiliate, where he posted a .267/.362/.532 batting line with 27 home runs in 461 plate appearances. That was “only” about 17 percent better than league average, after accounting for the hitter-friendly setting (117 wRC+), but it was encouraging to see Bird produce well and remain healthy enough to appear in 112 games.
The Jays are obviously set with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first base, and their deep outfield mix means they don’t necessarily have a need for a regular designated hitter. They’ve also been at least loosely connected to Freddie Freeman, and while that’s a long-shot fit, it’d only further reduce Bird’s chances of breaking through to the big league roster. That said, Bird is a perfectly sensible player to stash in Triple-A in the event of an injury, and if he hits well enough in Buffalo, the Jays can perhaps find a way to work his left-handed bat onto the roster in a part-time role.
Blue Jays Sign Joe Biagini To Minor League Deal
The Blue Jays have signed right-hander Joe Biagini to a minor league contract, tweets Jamie Campbell of Sportsnet. He’ll presumably be invited to big league camp whenever it can finally get underway.
It’ll be a reunion for the two parties, as Biagini made his big league debut with the 2016 Jays after being selected out of the Giants organization in the 2015 Rule 5 Draft. He turned in an outstanding rookie season in Toronto, tossing 67 2/3 innings of 3.06 ERA ball with an even better 2.95 FIP mark. A move to the rotation the following season proved to be a misstep, however, as Biagini was torched for a 5.73 ERA in 18 starts (as compared to a 4.16 mark in 31 2/3 innings of bullpen work that year). The experiment continued early in the 2018 season, but Biagini returned to the ‘pen after just four starts and struggled his way through the remainder of the season.
A return to the ‘pen as a full-time reliever in 2019 brought about much better results — albeit not quite to the extent of his excellent rookie campaign. In 50 innings of bullpen work with Toronto, the Biagini notched a 3.78 ERA with 50 strikeouts against 17 walks. The Jays, still in the final stages of a rebuilding effort, flipped Biagini to the Astros alongside righty Aaron Sanchez at the 2019 trade deadline — a deal that brought Derek Fisher back to Toronto.
That swap didn’t work out for either party, as Biagini wound up pitching just 19 innings for the ‘Stros over the next two seasons while serving up a staggering 22 runs. Sanchez quickly went down with a shoulder injury and only wound up pitching 18 2/3 frames in Houston himself. Fisher spent parts of two seasons in Toronto and batted just .177/.295/.395 before being cut loose.
Biagini spent the 2021 season in the Cubs organization, where they again worked him primarily as a starting pitcher with their Triple-A affiliate. In 91 2/3 frames, the right-hander posted a 5.50 ERA. He appeared in one big league game late in the season as a Covid replacement player for the Cubs, picking up a win after pitching three scoreless innings of relief. He was removed from the 40-man roster thereafter and, as such, eligible to sign a minor league deal even amid the ongoing lockout.
All told, Biagini has a 5.03 ERA in 331 1/3 big league innings, though his struggles as a starter skew the numbers a bit. Biagini has a lifetime 6.08 ERA out of the rotation compared to a more palatable (albeit pedestrian) 4.53 ERA as a reliever. He’s been better than average in terms of limiting hard contact and barreled balls, per Statcast, and Biagini also possesses elite spin rate on a curveball that has been an effective pitch for him — alongside a similarly strong changeup. He’s tried out a four-seamer, sinker and cut fastball throughout his big league career, and all three (particularly the sinker) have been hit hard.
Right-hander Jordan Romano has emerged as the clear top reliever in the Toronto bullpen, and he’ll be joined by returning names such as Trevor Richards, Adam Cimber and Tim Mayza — as well as offseason signee Yimi Garcia. The Jays are expected to continue seeking bullpen help after the lockout, but Biagini’s experience and familiarity with the organization could eventually earn him an opportunity if he shows well either in camp or in Triple-A.
Quick Hits: MLBPA Facility, Bradley, Rays, Kloffenstein, Jays
With MLBPA members currently locked out of Spring Training and team facilities, the union has set up a facility in Arizona so that players can attempt to replicate a normal spring training experience. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle takes a look at the situation, which includes some surreal details, such as softball, pickleball players and children also making use of the equipment near the MLB players. “The Players Association has done an incredible job setting this up,” Nico Hoerner says about the setup. “Hopefully, more players start showing up, because it’s about as nice a place as I’ve ever worked out.” As noted by Slusser, Kyle Hendricks, Shane Bieber and Mark Melancon are just some of the other big leaguers present there.
Elsewhere, Alex Wood is working out in Georgia with his fellow Giant and battery mate Joey Bart. With no firm timeline on when Spring Training or the regular season will get started, it makes it difficult for players to decide how to prepare. “I’m slowly ramping up,” Wood said. “I’m going to continue to build volume in hopes that in the next two weeks or so we hopefully get a deal. Once we head to camp, I should be ready to get in games pretty quickly.” Hoerner similarly feels he won’t be far from readiness once the lockout is over. “Give me my 30 at-bats and I’ll be ready to go,” he said.
Elsewhere around the league…
- Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times takes a look at the trajectory of right-handed pitching prospect Taj Bradley, who was selected by the Rays in the 5th round of the 2018 draft, when he was still a teenager. “I remember when Taj Bradley showed up on campus when he was 17 years old, and I think he was throwing 86, 87, 88 (mph),” minor-league field coordinator Michael Johns said. “We’re all kind of scratching our heads like, ‘Ooookaaaay.'” But Bradley took a huge step forward in 2021, logging 103 1/3 innings between A-ball and High-A, with an ERA of just 1.83, along with an excellent 31% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. Based on that performance, he’s now considered the #58 prospect in the game by Baseball America. Bradley tells Topkin about the steps he’s taken to get where he is today, which includes keeping a journal of his progress. “I just start off with a quick, like, ‘You had a great game. You had a good outing. This is what you did well. You’ve been working on this. You did it. You succeeded,'” Bradley says. “And maybe with, like 0-2 pitches or put-away pitches or my cutter, just the development of it — not a con so much as improvements need to be made.” Bradley is not yet on the Rays’ 40-man roster, meaning he will be able to continue his development in game settings when the minor leagues begin in April, even if the lockout were to linger beyond that time.
- Like Bradley, Adam Kloffenstein was also selected by an AL East team in the 2018 draft, when the Blue Jays drafted him in the third round. But unlike Bradley, Kloffenstein had a miserable season in 2021, putting up an ERA of 6.22 in 101 1/3 innings at High-A. Keegan Matheson of MLB.com spoke to Kloffenstein about getting over the disappointing results of last year and moving into the future. “I was young when I was drafted. I’ve always been blessed, always been successful in this game — which has made it a lot of fun,” Kloffenstein said. “Last year, I didn’t have as much fun… Obviously, I’m bummed out about the season. I’m 20, 21 years old, and we’re going to look back on this in a couple years and it’s going to be the most important season I ever had.” Prospect evaluators have pointed out that the Blue Jays’ system is lacking in upper level pitching prospects, now that Alek Manoah has graduated to the big league team. If Kloffenstein can right the ship in 2022, he could potentially fill that hole for the organization. Having not yet landed a roster spot, Kloffenstein will be unaffected by the lockout, with Matheson noting that he could start the season in the rotation of the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats.
Blue Jays Sign Eric Stamets To Minor League Deal
The Blue Jays have signed shortstop Eric Stamets to a minor league contract, per an announcement from his agents at MSM Sports (Twitter link). Stamets spent last season in the Rockies’ minor league system and became a minor league free agent at season’s end, which made him eligible to sign even during the ongoing lockout.
Stamets, 30, has 15 games of big league experience, all coming with Cleveland back in 2019, when he was their Opening Day shortstop. (Francisco Lindor was on the injured list due to a calf strain.) Stamets struggled through a prolonged 2-for-41 slump to begin the season, however, and was back in Triple-A Columbus by mid-April. Stamets hit .244/.312/.379 in Columbus over the remainder of that season and was eventually removed from the 40-man roster after the trade deadline had passed.
Stamets reached minor league free agency in the 2019-20 offseason and signed a minor league deal with the Rockies, who brought him back for a second season in 2021. He hit .168/.283/.319 in 139 plate appearances in Colorado’s system last year and is a career .223/.295/.371 hitter in parts of five Triple-A seasons overall.
While Stamets obviously doesn’t have a strong offensive track record, Baseball America twice rated him the fastest runner and the best defensive infielder in the Angels’ system early in his pro career. He’s been successful in 85.2% of his professional stolen base attempts and is generally regarded as an excellent defensive shortstop who can also handle second base and third base.
The Jays’ infield currently has Bo Bichette at shortstop, and Cavan Biggio is ticketed for regular reps at either second or third base (more likely the former). Santiago Espinal is the current favorite to see time at third base, while infielders Kevin Smith and Otto Lopez could both vie for bench jobs whenever the season gets underway.
Toronto is generally expected to look into additional help in the infield, as evidenced by their reported pursuit of Corey Seager (before he signed in Texas) and their rumored interest in A’s third baseman Matt Chapman (among other trade possibilities). Stamets is likely seen as some upper-level infield depth, but he’d give them plenty of speed and defense off the bench if he earns a bench spot at some point. Any further infield additions would likely push Espinal into a bench role.
Latest On Carlos Correa
Going into the offseason, there were many parallels between the top two free agents, Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. Both were shortstops reaching free agency at the age of 27 and coming off excellent platform seasons. Seager, along with agent Scott Boras, secured a ten-year, $325MM contract from the Rangers prior to the lockout. Correa, however, did not sign before transactions were frozen and then hired the Boras corporation to represent him in January. Once the lockout is lifted, his continued search for a contract will be one of the top storylines to follow. Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a look at some of the options, including the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers and Cubs, while Ken Rosenthal and Corey Brock of The Athletic, look into the fit with the Red Sox and Mariners, respectively.
The Dodgers, of course, had Seager as their shortstop in recent years and just saw him depart for the Rangers. The expectation has been that they were comfortable enough with that loss because they could rely on Trea Turner to take over at short. If the Dodgers were to then pivot to Correa, however, that would likely involve Turner moving over to second base, much like he did when he and Seager were on the roster together after he was acquired from the Nationals at last year’s trade deadline. Since Turner is just one year away from free agency, signing a long-term deal with Correa could be a way to proactively address the shortstop void one year before it’s absolutely necessary. This scenario seems to have been already considered by the Dodgers’ brass, as Sherman reports that they offered Seager a $275MM deal before he signed with the Rangers. However, he also notes that it might not be as simple as swapping Correa in for Seager, as Correa’s role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal might not go over so well with fans of the Dodgers, since they were defeated by that now-infamous team in the 2017 World Series.
That same issue is present with another reported suitor, the Yankees, as they were felled by the Astros in the 2017 ALCS. But Yankees’ general manager Brian Cashman has previously stated that the reaction of the fans “is not going to enter my calculus right now.” Since Gleyber Torres was moved to second base last year, it was expected that the Yankees would be major players in this year’s shortstop market. However, they may be willing to eschew a big splash, preferring to target a short-term stopgap option to hold down the position until it’s taken over by one of their prospects, either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe. It’s also possible that this is merely a posture for negotiating purposes and that the club may emerge as a genuine suitor for Correa. Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that they did check in with Correa prior to the lockout, but seemed to prefer Seager. Since Correa was reportedly looking for a contract slightly above what Seager eventually got, it may be difficult for a deal to come together.
The Blue Jays have less of an obvious need for Correa, given the presence of Bo Bichette at short. Sherman opines that the club could sign Correa and then bump Bichette to either second or third, but then downplays the possibility of them dishing out a contract nearing Correa’s asking price. Given the fact that they were reportedly in the mix for Seager prior to the lockout, the possibility can’t be ruled out entirely. The sign-stealing situation clearly isn’t an issue for the Jays, as they’ve already signed George Springer, Correa’s teammate in Houston. But even if they do have the payroll to make a big splash after the lockout, they may use it to make a run at Freddie Freeman instead.
The Tigers have long been considered a speculative fit for Correa, given the fact that their manager is A.J. Hinch, who previously managed Correa in Houston. However, they already made a big investment at shortstop when they signed Javier Baez prior to the lockout. Although Baez played some second base with the Mets last year in deference to Francisco Lindor and could theoretically do the same again, it still would be shocking to see them double down in such an aggressive fashion. Sherman also speculates that the Cubs could be a dark horse here. The club was primarily focused on tearing down last year, trading away most of the core pieces from their previous competitive window, including Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Since the offseason began, they have been surprisingly active in making additions, bringing on Marcus Stroman, Yan Gomes and Wade Miley. However, those players were all brought aboard with short-term commitments and pivoting to the type of lengthy deal that would be required to sign Correa seems unlikely at this stage.
As for the Red Sox, Rosenthal lays out a scenario where Correa takes over as their shortstop given that his defense is far superior to that of Xander Bogaerts, who could be shuffled over to second base. However, he also points out that, given the lockout-shortened Spring Training to come, there will be less time for Bogaerts to develop his skills at a new position than there would be in a more normal year, perhaps making the plan too awkward to implement successfully. After this season, Bogaerts can opt-out of the three years and $60MM that will be remaining on his contract, something that he seems likely to do if he has another healthy and productive season. Signing Correa now could be a way for Boston to preemptively replace Bogaerts, but as Rosenthal points out, the club hasn’t signed a free agent contract larger than $14MM since Chaim Bloom became the club’s chief baseball officer. Suddenly dropping $300MM on the table would be a huge departure in strategy. However, it’s exactly because of that avoidance of significant commitments that the club’s future payroll is fairly blank. If Bogaerts does indeed opt out after this season, that would leave Chris Sale as the only serious commitment on the books.
For the Mariners, Brock doesn’t believe it likely that there’s a match here. However, he points out that, if Correa is interested in going to Seattle, they have the money to make it happen. The club’s payroll for the year is currently around $87MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. From 2015 to 2019, the club’s annual budget hovered in the $120-160MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That leaves plenty of breathing room, if the club is willing to push up to those spending levels again in an attempt to build on last year’s 90-win campaign. The team’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto previously stated that the club wouldn’t supplant J.P. Crawford as the team’s shortstop, but it’s hard to imagine that strategy is so etched in stone that they wouldn’t consider adding a talent like Correa if the stars aligned for them to do so.
Clearly, there are many ways Correa’s market could play out once the lockout ends. With the freezing of transactions and contract negotiations, we can’t really know the intentions of any of these parties until that ice breaks and dominos start falling again. Due to the compressed timeline that will eventually exist between the signing of a new CBA and the start of the season, this will all have to play out in an expedited fashion. And with Boras also representing many other high-profile free agents like Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon and more, that figures to make the situation all the more frenzied.
Latest On Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman‘s ultimate free-agent destination has been one of the more fascinating storylines of the offseason. At the outset of free agency, most felt a reunion with the Braves was a fait accompli, but as Freeman’s stay on the market has lingered, there’s been increasing speculation about him signing elsewhere.
We can’t know when we’ll get a resolution, thanks to the ongoing lockout, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that there’s an industry sense that Freeman will act quickly once the transaction freeze lifts. Specifically, Sherman suggests that within 48 hours of the freeze lifting, Freeman’s “path will be publicly known.” The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested something similar, albeit without the specific timeline, when writing late last month that both Freeman and the Braves could “act quickly” post-lockout.
Freeman’s fate is a renewed talking point among Braves fans in the wake of this morning’s earnings report from Liberty Media, which owns the Braves, although the newly available public insight into the team’s financials likely has little to no impact on their pursuit of Freeman. It’s always been a question of whether ownership and/or the front office deems Freeman’s asking price to be a prudent long-term move for the organization, and the team knew those figures would be going public at this point.
Perhaps more interesting, however, is Sherman’s suggestion that one theoretical Freeman suitor, the Blue Jays, has been given ownership approval for a “large increase in payroll” even after the additions of George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios over the past year-plus. The Jays’ desire to add a left-handed bat to the mix isn’t exactly a new revelation; they reportedly pursued Corey Seager prior to his deal with the Rangers and have been speculatively tied to names like Kyle Schwarber and the since-retired Kyle Seager. The Jays were even linked to Freeman as far back as Nov. 30. More recently, Rosenthal said on Sportsnet that he expects the Jays to be involved on Freeman whenever the lockout lifts (video link).
Toronto is just one speculative alternative, and Freeman has also been heavily linked to the Dodgers and Yankees in addition to the incumbent Braves. ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested in a recent appearance on the Michael Kay Show (audio link, with Freeman talk starting around 11 minutes) that the Mets at least “checked in” on Freeman prior to the lockout, although SNY’s Andy Martino wrote this morning that the chances of a Freeman/Mets deal coming together border on nonexistent. Olney, too, mentions the Blue Jays as a team that has inquired on Freeman (along with the Dodgers), and he more broadly discusses a growing industry sentiment that Freeman won’t return to the Braves.
The Braves’ best offer to this point has reportedly been a five-year, $135MM contract. He’s said to be eyeing a six-year pact on the heels of another outstanding season. Freeman followed up his 2020 NL MVP Award with a .300/.393/.503 showing and 31 home runs during the regular season, plus a .304/.420/.625 line with five home runs in 69 postseason plate appearances. It was yet another impressive season for the ever-reliable first baseman, who has a wRC+ of 132 or better (indicating he’s been at least 32 percentage points more productive than the league average hitter) every year since 2013.
It’s certainly possible the Braves and Freeman can yet bridge the gap that remained in talks through the imposition of the lockout. Yet Atlanta has at least explored some alternatives. The Braves reportedly looked into Anthony Rizzo as a free agent possibility, and they’ve been mentioned as a potential trade partner with the A’s on Matt Olson on multiple occasions. Sherman speaks with a few agents and one rival executive who speculate that Atlanta could even pivot to pursuing an Olson trade between the time the lockout is lifted and when Freeman signs. The executive notes that someone like Kyle Wright — a big league ready starter who was formerly a top five draftee and highly-regarded prospect — fits the mold of the near-MLB talent the A’s could look for in an Olson deal. Wright no longer has the trade value to center a package that could persuade the A’s to part with Olson, but he’d be a sensible option for Oakland to explore as an ancillary piece in talks with Atlanta.
That’s conjecture from people outside the Atlanta organization, to be clear. What president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff have planned for the post-lockout scramble won’t become evident until offseason activity actually resumes. Yet the growing industry chatter reinforces that Freeman remaining in Atlanta may not be the lock many anticipated as the Braves entered the offseason riding high on a World Series title, particularly as other possible suitors loom.
Frank Herrmann Joins Blue Jays’ Front Office
Former big league reliever Frank Herrmann recently joined the Blue Jays’ front office, as first reported by David Laurila of FanGraphs (on Twitter). He’ll split his time between the scouting, player development and baseball operations departments.
Herrmann, 37, appeared in parts of four big league seasons. He spent the 2010-12 campaigns with the Indians, where his time as a player overlapped with Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro’s and general manager Ross Atkins’ stints in the Cleveland front office. The right-hander spent the next couple seasons in Triple-A but returned to the bigs in 2016, making 14 appearances with the Phillies.
Over 135 1/3 MLB innings, Herrmann pitched to a 4.72 ERA. He only punched out 14.8% of batters faced but threw plenty of strikes (5.8% walk rate). After the 2016 campaign, Herrmann made the move to Japan. He signed with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of Nippon Professional Baseball. He’d spend three years with the Eagles before catching on with the Chiba Lotte Marines, where he closed out his playing career with a final two seasons.
Herrmann was a productive reliever in NPB. Over his five seasons, he worked to a 3.02 ERA. That mark is inflated a bit by a 5.19 figure he posted last year, but Herrmann put up an ERA of 3.04 or lower in each of his first four seasons in Japan. A Harvard graduate, he’ll now transition to his post-playing days. Herrmann brings 16 years of professional playing experience to his role in Toronto’s baseball ops.
Blue Jays “Very Interested” In Tyler Mahle Prior To Lockout
4:29 pm: The Jays also had interest in Gray and Castillo before the lockout, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. That’s hardly a surprise, given that all three Cincinnati arms figure to draw plenty of attention from rival clubs whenever the transactions freeze ends.
12:51 pm: The Blue Jays had Tyler Mahle on their radar as a trade target before the lockout, as TSN’s Scott Mitchell hears from a source that the Jays “were very interested” in the Reds right-hander. The exact timing of the Jays’ interest isn’t specified, or whether or not the club may have moved on from big-ticket pitching acquisitions after signing Kevin Gausman.
Cincinnati GM Nick Krall began the offseason with a quick trade of catcher Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers, and followed that deal up with his now somewhat infamous statement that the Reds “must align our payroll to our resources and continue focusing on scouting and developing young talent from within our system.” Wade Miley (who had a $10MM club option for 2022) was then placed on waivers and claimed by the Cubs, thus sparking even more speculation about just how much payroll the Reds were looking to shed.
As such, players like Mahle, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, and many other veteran Reds players were immediately seen as trade candidates, even though Cincinnati didn’t make any other overt cost-cutting transactions before the lockout hit. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco speculated last month, it could be that between the Barnhart/Miley moves and Nick Castellanos‘ likely free agent departure, the Reds might have already gotten their finances in order. On top of that, the Reds were reportedly open to discussing Gray in trade talks but not either Mahle or Castillo.
This isn’t to say that the Reds wouldn’t at least listen if Toronto or another team came calling with a big offer, and if the Reds still had designs on contending in 2022, the Blue Jays could offer some combination of both young talent and big league-ready pieces. Cincinnati would likely only accept such a significant trade package for Mahle given that he is both controlled through the 2023 season and coming off the strongest of his five years in the majors.
The 27-year-old righty has been both durable (227 2/3 innings) and effective since the start of the 2020 season, posting a 3.72 ERA and a 28.3% strikeout rate, though Mahle’s 8.9% walk rate was below the league average. Mahle did have strong fastball spin rates in both seasons, and 2021 saw Mahle post far and away the best hard-hit ball rate of his career.
Mahle seems overqualified for a fourth or fifth starter role, yet that might be where he lines up in a Toronto rotation that also consists of Gausman, Jose Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Alek Manoah. Ross Stripling is penciled in as the fifth starter for the moment, though as Mitchell notes, Stripling “profiles better as a swingman and spot starter” than as a regular rotation member. Top prospect Nate Pearson is likely going to be on an innings limit after two injury-plagued seasons, so while a Pearson/Stripling combo isn’t bad on paper, the Jays might prefer to shift both pitchers into depth roles and cement their rotation by adding some sort of veteran starter, perhaps even one as accomplished as Mahle.
While it remains to be seen if Cincinnati will ultimately deal any of its three starters, the fact that all three may be available to some degree gives the Reds some leverage in talks. In that sense, the Jays aren’t only bidding against other teams interested in Mahle, but also against what other teams (like the Dodgers or Angels) might offer the Reds for Castillo and/or Gray. Given how aggressive Toronto GM Ross Atkins has been in searching out pitching options over the last few years, it is probably safe to assume that the Jays have also checked in on obtaining Castillo or Gray, though only the Blue Jays front office knows which Cincinnati starter is their chief target.
Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: 27 Regulars Who Could Plausibly Change Teams
In recent days, MLBTR has taken a look at some players who could find themselves on the move between the conclusion of the lockout and the start of the season. First, Tim Dierkes looked at the league’s 14 likeliest trade candidates. Steve Adams then ran through some impact players who, to varying degrees, could find themselves in trade rumors whenever transactions resume.
Today we’ll look at other regulars who we could envision changing uniforms in the relatively near future. Acquiring any of the players on today’s list wouldn’t be quite as splashy as landing the stars we covered last week, but it’s easy to envision any one of them assuming an important, regular role on a new team.
Before we get into the list, a quick note on methodology. In defining “plausible” trade candidates, we looked at players we felt had somewhere between a 20% and 50% chance of being dealt before the start of the season. It’s not meant to be an exhaustive list of trade possibilities — almost any player around the league could theoretically move if another team made the right offer — but it’s meant to capture a tier of regulars we wouldn’t be surprised to see change hands. In an exercise of this nature, there has to be a somewhat arbitrary line that delineates the last of the players who, in our view, are “plausible” trade candidates. Players like Gary Sánchez and Jesús Aguilar were discussed internally but fell just on the other side of that line.
Now, on to the list. The players are ordered by what we feel to be their likelihood of getting traded (all arbitration projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz):
John Means, Orioles SP
Buster Olney of ESPN reported in November that the Orioles were “dangling” Means in trade talks. Baltimore’s rebuilding and seemingly amenable to offers on anyone on the roster, but it remains to be seen how actively they’ll push to make their top starting pitcher available. With Means controllable through 2024 and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary, the O’s needn’t force a deal this offseason.
The 28-year-old presents a tricky evaluation for teams. He got off to an excellent start to the season, posting a 2.28 ERA (albeit with a 4.20 FIP) through his first 71 innings. Means then landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain. After returning in July, he posted a 4.88 ERA down the stretch, watching his strikeout rate tumble almost six percentage points in the process. The medical evaluation will be critical, but teams that are comfortable with the state of Means’ shoulder moving forward might expect him to regain the strong mid-rotation form he showed early in the year.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers SS/3B
Kiner-Falefa has been a solid regular for the Rangers for the past couple seasons. He spent 2020 at third base, then was tasked with moving up the defensive spectrum to shortstop last year. Defensive Runs Saved loved his glovework at short; Statcast’s Outs Above Average did not. Kiner-Falefa finished third in the 2021 Fielding Bible shortstop award voting. There’s not much question he’s a very good defender at the hot corner, and most teams would probably at least feel comfortable with him moonlighting at shortstop if need be.
Texas remade their middle infield in free agency, signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Kiner-Falefa could kick back to third base, but the Rangers have top prospect Josh Jung nearing big league readiness at the position. Controllable for two more seasons and projected for a $4.9MM salary, he could stick around as a utility guy. But if another team buys him as a plus defender at shortstop, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas ship him somewhere he can continue playing everyday. Kiner-Falefa’s .271/.312/.357 line fits better at the bottom of a lineup, but he brings good contact skills and a solid infield glove to the table. MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored the possibility of a Kiner-Falefa trade at greater length this afternoon.
Raimel Tapia, Rockies LF
Reports out of Denver have suggested the Rockies could look to move Tapia, projected for a $3.9MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration-eligible season. The Rox need to bolster an offense that was among the league’s worst last year, and they’re seemingly planning to make a splash in the corner outfield. That’d probably push Tapia — who’s spent almost his entire MLB career in left field — out of the everyday lineup.
Tapia has never hit at the level one would hope from an everyday left fielder. One could argue he’s better suited for a fourth outfield role regardless. He’s a plus runner with good bat-to-ball skills, though, and he ranked among Baseball America’s top 50 overall prospects back in 2017. It’s certainly not out of the question another team takes a flier on him, particularly if the Rockies are willing to take a minimal return after acquiring his replacement.
Chris Paddack, Padres SP
The pre-lockout agreement with Nick Martínez bumped a bunch of the Friars’ younger arms down a peg on the rotation depth chart. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, that could pave the way for them to move one of their controllable starters. If they do, Paddack looks the likeliest of the bunch. He’s arbitration-eligible and projected for a $2.1MM salary. That’s certainly affordable, but the Padres could be looking to open some payroll space after exceeding the luxury tax threshold last year.
Paddack has had back-to-back down seasons after a promising rookie campaign. But he’s still only 26 years old, boasts pristine control, and teams can dream on him recapturing his 2019 form. That he’s controllable for three seasons could be of particular appeal to teams like the Rangers and Nationals (who expressed interest at last summer’s deadline) who might be eyeing 2023 as a more plausible contention year.
Ryan Yarbrough, Rays SP
Yarbrough has been a flexible member of the Rays pitching staff for the past few years. He’s worked variably as a traditional long reliever, a bulk man behind an opener and as a true starting pitcher. Yarbrough posted an ERA of 4.13 or lower in each of his first three seasons, but he scuffled to a 5.11 mark in 2021. That came without meaningful changes to his strikeout and walk numbers, though, and Yarbrough remained excellent at avoiding hard contact.
The Rays likely anticipate the southpaw will return to form, but his price is escalating. Tampa Bay is already projected for a franchise-record payroll, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they move some of their arbitration-eligible players for pre-arb or minor league talent. Yarbrough is projected for a $4.4MM salary and remains under team control through 2024.
Austin Meadows, Rays LF/DH
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote over the weekend that the Rays could be open to moving Meadows, who is projected for a $4.3MM salary. Controllable through 2024, Meadows would be a long-term option for Tampa Bay or any potential acquiring team, but the Rays have proven willing to field offers on almost anyone on the roster. And with the aforementioned payroll outlook for the typically low-spending club, the front office figures to be amenable to ways to pare back costs.
Meadows is coming off a decent season, in which he hit .234/.315/.458 with 27 homers over 591 plate appearances. That marked a bounceback from a below-average offensive showing during the shortened 2020 schedule, but it’s a fair bit shy of his career-best .291/.364/.558 line the season before that. Meadows isn’t a great defender, so he needs to mash to be a star. He did that in 2019, but he’s otherwise been a good-not-great hitter. That’s still a valuable player to have on hand, but unless the Rays anticipate him replicating his peak season this year, it’d be sensible to listen to offers.
Tony Kemp, Athletics 2B/LF
Kemp has bounced around the league a bit in recent seasons. He plays second base and left field, but advanced metrics have pegged him as a fringy defender at the keystone. Kemp doesn’t bring a ton of power to the table, and he’s already 30 years old. It’s not the easiest profile to make work, explaining why he has yet to find a long-term home.
There’s no questioning Kemp’s 2021 results, though. Over 397 plate appearances, he hit .279/.382/.418. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as worth around three wins above replacement. Kemp has excellent plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, and he could be trending towards a late-career emergence in the mold of former A’s second baseman Tommy La Stella. The market for teams on the hunt for second base help is pretty thin. Kemp, who avoided arbitration on a $2.25MM salary and is controllable through 2023, would be an affordable pickup if the A’s move him as part of their anticipated post-lockout efforts to trim payroll and reboot the roster.
Manuel Margot, Rays OF
MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently looked at the possibility of the Rays making Margot available. He’s projected for a $5MM arbitration salary as he enters his final year of club control. That’s a reasonable salary for a player of Margot’s caliber, but Tampa Bay has plenty of cheaper, controllable outfielders on hand, and top prospect Josh Lowe looks ready to step into an everyday role somewhere in the grass after a monster season in Triple-A.
It’s not out of the question Tampa trades away multiple outfielders, but if they move the more expensive Kevin Kiermaier, Margot sticking around to handle center field is certainly possible. The latter might have broader appeal around the league, though. Not only is he set to make around a third of Kiermaier’s remaining guarantees, Statcast credited Margot with a league-best +16 Outs Above Average in the outfield last year. He’s never been more than an average hitter, but acceptable offense coupled with Gold Glove caliber defense is a very valuable player. There’s also a dearth of center fielders available in free agency at this point.
Max Kepler, Twins OF
MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down Kepler’s trade candidacy at great length. Guaranteed $16.25MM through 2023 and controllable for 2024 via club option, he’d be an affordable target for teams seeking outfield help. Yet Kepler’s offensive production has ticked down towards league average following what seemed to be a breakout showing in 2019. The Twins might prefer to hold onto him in hopes he rediscovers that form, but they just extended Byron Buxton and have former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach in the fold as corner outfield options. A Kepler deal could be a creative way to address some of the team’s other issues in the starting rotation or at shortstop.
Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays C
The Jays’ catching depth has been a topic of conversation throughout the offseason. Would Toronto part with one of their controllable backstops to land help in the rotation or infield? The signing of Kevin Gausman probably diminishes their need to land an impact starter via trade, although they’re likely to at least look for depth pieces.
Reese McGuire is a capable backup catcher who’s out of minor league options. Top prospect Gabriel Moreno is rapidly approaching and could be in the majors by the end of the season. Jansen offers a solid bend of power and defensive acumen, while Kirk has otherworldly bat-to-ball skills and an elite minor league track record. Toronto doesn’t have to move anyone from this group, but it could be an opportunity to consolidate their catching depth for help elsewhere on the roster.
Amed Rosario, Guardians SS/CF
Cleveland acquired Rosario from the Mets as part of the Francisco Lindor trade last offseason. His offensive numbers (.282/.321/.409) were fine, although neither Defensive Runs Saved nor Statcast was fond of his glovework at shortstop. Rosario’s aggressive approach at the plate will probably keep him from emerging as the star many envisioned he’d become as a prospect, but he has alright career hitting numbers, runs well and could be an option for teams at any of the up-the-middle positions on the diamond (aside from catcher).
The Guardians have a lot of infield depth, with several talented prospects in the high minors and already on the 40-man roster. With their seemingly annual need for outfield help, a Rosario trade could help balance the roster. Cleveland could also just give him more run in center or left field themselves, but it might be more straightforward to trade him to an infield-needy team with an outfield surplus. Rosario is projected for a $5MM salary and controllable through 2023.
Josh Bell, Nationals 1B
I covered Bell’s trade candidacy in greater length in late December. The Nationals are taking a step back in 2022, and he’s entering his final year of club control. A projected $10MM salary might scare away some suitors, but Bell would be a notable offensive upgrade for many teams around the league. The switch-hitter posted a .261/.347/.476 season-long mark, and he had an excellent 277/.381/.506 line with more walks than strikeouts after the All-Star Break.
Garrett Cooper, Marlins 1B/COF
Cooper has looked like a viable trade candidate for a few seasons. He’s part of a corner outfield/first base rotation in Miami that got a bit more crowded when the Fish signed Avisaíl García. The Marlins have suggested they could use García as their regular center fielder, but that’s less than ideal. If they land a center fielder after the lockout and push García to a more suitable right field role, Cooper might find himself squeezed for playing time.
A late bloomer, Cooper’s already 31 years old. He has quietly been a very productive hitter when healthy, though, including an excellent .284/.371/.478 line (133 wRC+) in 383 plate appearances since the start of 2020. Health is a big caveat for Cooper, who has had stints on the injured list in all five of his MLB seasons and missed the second half of last year with a left elbow injury. As MLBTR’s TC Zencka explored in December, he’d returned to taking batting practice and figures to be ready for 2022. Projected for a modest $3MM salary with an additional season of control thereafter, he could be an interesting flier, particularly for NL teams looking to add offense if/when the universal designated hitter is finalized.
Anthony Santander, Orioles RF/LF
Santander’s name has been floated around the rumor mill in years past. The Orioles are rebuilding, and he’s more of a complimentary piece than a likely member of the long-term core. Santander is limited to the corner outfield and has a very aggressive approach, though, making it crucial he makes plenty of contact and hits for power. He did that in the shortened 2020 season en route to a .261/.315/.575 line, but he couldn’t follow up on that success.
Last season, Santander had a couple injured list stints and struggled to a .241/.286/.433 mark. He signed for $3.15MM to avoid arbitration in November and remains controllable through 2024. Given their competitive window, the O’s would certainly listen to offers on Santander. But it remains to be seen whether there’ll be sufficient demand that Baltimore wouldn’t be better off hanging onto him and hoping he approximates his 2020 performance over the first few months of next season. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently explored Santander’s trade candidacy in greater depth.
Zach Plesac, Guardians SP
Plesac isn’t yet arbitration eligible and he’s controllable for another four seasons. The Guardians might simply prefer to hang onto him, particularly after their 2021 season was derailed by rotation injuries. Yet as mentioned with regards to Rosario, Cleveland has significant concerns in the outfield. They’ve dealt key starting pitchers over the past couple seasons, seemingly confident in their ability to continue to develop less-heralded prospects into capable rotation cogs.
If they were to deal a starter, Plesac would seem the likeliest candidate. The Guardians aren’t about to rebuild, and moving Shane Bieber or Aaron Civale might be too significant a blow to their hopes of contending in 2022. Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill might still have upside Cleveland’s hoping to unlock. Plesac’s small sample excellence in 2020 was probably inflated by a regional schedule against Central-division teams that, by and large, weren’t good offensively. That season aside, he hasn’t posted particularly impressive strikeout rates. But he’s got excellent control, gets a decent number of grounders, and should be a solid bet for league average rotation innings over the next few seasons.
Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks SP
The D-Backs were the worst team in the National League last season. They don’t seem to have the appetite for a full rebuild, but Kelly’s entering his final year of club control. At age 33, he’s probably not an extension candidate, so Arizona figures to be open to moving him.
Kelly’s not an overpowering arm. He posted a 4.44 ERA over 158 innings last season, striking out only 19.5% of batters faced. He throws plenty of strikes, though, and he gets a decent number of grounders. Playing on a modest $5.25MM salary, Kelly would be an eminently affordable pickup for contenders looking to stabilize the back of the rotation.
Mitch Garver/Ryan Jeffers, Twins C
Garver missed a good chunk of last season after suffering a gruesome injury. During his 243 plate appearances, he mashed at a .256/.358/.517 clip with 13 home runs (137 wRC+). That’s two of the past three seasons with some of the best offensive output of any catcher in baseball. He’s controllable for two seasons and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary. Jeffers hasn’t yet hit arbitration-eligibility and still has minor league options remaining. He struck out too often as a rookie, but he hit for power and is a well-regarded defender who entered the year among the sport’s top catching prospects.
As with Kepler, a trade of Garver or Jeffers would probably be about dealing from an area of surplus to address the rotation or shortstop. Both players could plausibly be regular catchers next season, and they’d lose some of their value if penciled into the DH role regularly. Given Garver’s injury troubles, Minnesota might prefer to hold their depth behind the dish.
Elieser Hernández, Marlins SP
The Marlins have reportedly fielded offers on their arbitration-eligible starting pitchers this winter, perhaps in search of controllable outfield help. Miami already thinned their rotation depth a bit by including Zach Thompson in the Jacob Stallings deal, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they make one more move in that vein.
Over the past two years, Hernández owns a 3.84 ERA in 77 1/3 innings with very strong strikeout and walk rates (26.3% and 5.7%, respectively). He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s likely to always have some difficulty keeping the ball in the yard. He missed most of 2021 recovering from a pair of long-term injuries (biceps inflammation and a quad strain). Because of those drawbacks, he won’t be in as much demand as rotation mate Pablo López. Yet another team may try to take a shot on Hernández’s promising strikeout/walk profile, particularly since he’s only projected for a $1.4MM salary and controllable through 2024.
Chris Stratton, Pirates RP
I covered Stratton’s trade candidacy at greater length in December. He’s a 31-year-old reliever controllable for two seasons on a rebuilding team. The Bucs aren’t going to view him as a core piece of the rebuild, and it stands to reason they’d welcome the opportunity to pick up an intriguing low-level prospect. Over the past two seasons, Stratton has been the kind of capable if unexciting middle relief piece contending teams need. He won’t bring back a franchise-changing return, but at a projected $2.2MM salary, he should draw some interest.
Cole Sulser, Orioles RP
Sulser had a quietly strong second half with the Orioles, occasionally factoring into their closing mix. A late bloomer, he’ll be 32 by Opening Day. So while they’re under no contractual pressure to move him, the rebuilding O’s would certainly listen to offers. After putting up a 2.70 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, he should be of interest to contenders. Sulser isn’t yet arbitration eligible and can be controlled through 2025.
Adrian Houser/Eric Lauer, Brewers SP
The Brewers certainly aren’t obligated to trade either of Houser or Lauer, both of whom are coming off strong seasons. Still, the Brew Crew already have a vaunted top three of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and prospects Aaron Ashby and Ethan Small are at or nearing the big leagues. Might Milwaukee plug one of the younger arms into the rotation and flip a veteran back-end starter for offensive help?
Adalberto Mondesi, Royals 3B/SS
Mondesi’s an enigmatic player. He brings an enviable combination of power and speed and has enough athleticism to play a competent or better shortstop. He also has among the worst strikeout and walk numbers of any regular position player in MLB. Perhaps most alarming, he’s dealt with enough injury issues in recent years that Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore expressed some doubt about his ability to play more than 100 games per season regularly.
Nicky Lopez played well enough to supplant Mondesi at shortstop last year. Bobby Witt Jr. will probably take that position early in 2022, pushing Lopez somewhere else on the dirt. Whit Merrifield is still around as a second base option. Kansas City might have enough infield depth to explore a Mondesi trade, although it’d be a bit of a sell-low on a player with obvious physical gifts who’s controllable through 2023. He’s projected for a $3.2MM salary.
Kyle Hendricks, Cubs SP
Hendricks is guaranteed $29.5MM through the next two seasons, with a vesting option that could keep him in Chicago through 2024. The Cubs have moved most of their core players dating back to last offseason, but Hendricks remains on the North Side. That might be attributable to some uncharacteristic struggles, as the righty’s coming off a career-worst 4.77 ERA with unimpressive peripherals.
Hendricks has never struck batters out or fared exceptionally well in the eyes of ERA estimators, though. Until last season, his actual run prevention handily outperformed metrics like FIP and SIERA as he thrived on exceptional command. He’ll probably bounce back, even if he may never recapture his Cy Young-caliber, 2.13 ERA form from 2016. With the amount of teams on the hunt for starting pitching, there’d no doubt still be demand if the Cubs made Hendricks available. Will they? Perhaps, since they’re not likely to compete in 2022. Yet their early-offseason activity — signing Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman, claiming Wade Miley — has suggested they may not be keen to punt next season entirely.
Trey Mancini, Orioles 1B
The Orioles aren’t going to compete in 2022, and Mancini is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. Most players in his situation would be very straightforward trade candidates, but the first baseman is a fan favorite and reported clubhouse leader who made an inspiring return to the diamond last year after missing the 2020 campaign battling colon cancer.
That Mancini returned to play in 147 games after facing that kind of life obstacle is a remarkable achievement. It’s undeniable, though, that his production slipped relative to his excellent 2019 campaign. Mancini’s .255/.326/.432 line was only marginally above average, and he played exclusively first base and designated hitter. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him bounce back into a middle-of-the-order presence as he gets further away from beating cancer, but demand for his services might be limited until his production rebounds. If that’s the case, it’s probably not worth it for the O’s to trade him away this offseason. He’s projected for a $7.9MM salary, but Balitmore’s 2022 payroll ledger is wide open.