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Blue Jays Re-Sign Casey Lawrence To Minor League Deal

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The Blue Jays have signed right-hander Casey Lawrence to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He will presumably receive an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Lawrence, 35, was also signed to a minor league deal by the Jays for some pitching depth in 2022. He eventually had his contract selected and threw 18 innings over six appearances but posted a 7.50 ERA in that time. He spent most of the year in Triple-A, where things went much better. Over 23 starts and 126 innings for the Bisons, he had a 2.79 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 3.5% walk rate and 43.5% ground ball rate. He was outrighted off the roster in November but is now back in the organization without taking up a roster spot.

For the Jays, their rotation currently projects to feature Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah, Chris Bassitt and José Berríos in the first four spots, with Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White candidates for the fifth. By adding Lawrence on a minor league pact, they’ve added another depth option to join Nate Pearson, Thomas Hatch, Yosver Zulueta and Bowden Francis.

Lawrence is now out of options and can no longer be easily shuffled between the majors and minors if he makes his way back onto the 40-man. He has just over one year of service time, meaning that he could be retained cheaply for the foreseeable future if earns and continues to hang onto a roster spot.

Analyzing The Blue Jays’ Second Base Possibilities

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The Blue Jays have made a few drastic lineup changes this offseason, sending out Teoscar Hernández and top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno while bringing back Daulton Varsho and signing Kevin Kiermaier. Toronto general manager Ross Atkins recently told reporters he considers the club’s heavy lifting mostly finished, though he left the door open for another small-scale move or two.

One area of the roster that has thus far not changed is the infield. That’s not all that surprising, considering the Jays entered the offseason with a strong infield under club control for another year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman will be back at the corners, with Bo Bichette manning shortstop. The one position that doesn’t seem entirely settled is second base, though that’s not for a lack of options. Toronto has a trio of players who could compete for reps at the keystone, with manager John Schneider presumably planning to divvy up playing time depending on how each performs early in 2023.

At the moment, Whit Merrifield looks like the favorite for early run. Toronto acquired him from the Royals at last summer’s trade deadline, buying low at a time when the two-time All-Star was sitting on a meager .240/.290/.352 line. The Jays seemed undeterred by those numbers, betting on Merrifield’s career track record and generally solid work following an atrocious April. He rewarded the front office’s faith, hitting .281/.323/.446 in 44 games in a Jays uniform.

That surely cemented Merrifield’s place somewhere in the regular lineup, with second base being the straightforward option. Merrifield is capable of covering all three outfield positions, but Varsho and Kiermaier are in line for regular playing time alongside George Springer on the grass. With Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen likely to split time between catcher and designated hitter, Merrifield will presumably man second base on Opening Day.

Doing so pushes a pair of players who looked like quality regulars for the Jays not too long ago — Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio — to the bench. Biggio has been in the Opening Day lineup in each of the past three seasons, twice at the keystone, but that seems unlikely to be the case this year. The left-handed hitter is coming off a second straight pedestrian year, hitting .202/.318/.350 with six home runs through 303 plate appearances. Biggio still draws plenty of walks but he’s seen his power production dip the past couple seasons. He struggled enough he was briefly optioned to Triple-A Buffalo last season, though he was recalled within two weeks. He spent most of the year in a utility capacity, playing all four corner spots in addition to second base.

After Biggio was demoted, the primary second base job fell to Espinal. The 28-year-old had worked primarily as a versatile bench piece from 2020-21. He played his way into more consistent reps with a strong first few months in 2022, hitting .271/.323/.425 through the end of June. He even secured an All-Star appearance for that excellent early work, but he couldn’t carry that production for a full season. Espinal hit .261/.321/.317 from July onwards, ceding some more playing time to Biggio and (after the deadline) Merrifield for the stretch run.

With Merrifield in the fold, Espinal and Biggio each entered the offseason as at least somewhat realistic potential trade candidates. Espinal’s ability to cover shortstop if Bichette were injured and/or needed a rest day made him seem more entrenched than Biggio in Toronto, although it seemed reasonable teams could call on either player. There’s been no indication thus far that Toronto has discussed either with other clubs.

Considering the scant remaining middle infield options available via free agency, it’s possible teams like the White Sox, Angels, Giants or Brewers could still be in touch with Atkins and his staff in the coming months. The Jays don’t figure to be urgent to move either player, particularly considering the health uncertainty present with Kiermaier and Springer. An injury to either could press Merrifield more frequently back into outfield duty, leaving Espinal and/or Biggio to handle the keystone on a more regular basis.

Espinal and Biggio each qualified for arbitration for the first time this winter. They’re both projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary in the $2-3MM range. That’s hardly onerous, although there’s a case to be made for considering trade possibilities. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted last week, the Blue Jays presently project to enter the season right around the $233MM base luxury tax line. There are enough error bars in arbitration projections they could conceivably head into the year either above or below that threshold.

A team’s tax payor status isn’t finalized until season’s end, and the organization could well determine they’re comfortable exceeding that mark to maximize their chances in what should be a competitive AL East. Yet if the club is content with its infield strength — especially if they’re confident prospect Addison Barger will be ready for MLB action fairly early in the season — fielding offers on Espinal or Biggio could make sense. They’re not under pressure to do so but would presumably be open to the possibility, particularly if they could net immediate rotation depth or bullpen help.

Blue Jays, Julian Fernandez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Blue Jays are signing reliever Julian Fernández to a minor league contract, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter link). He’ll add some hard-throwing bullpen depth to the upper minors.

Fernández has over two years of major league service, but virtually all of that was spent on the injured list. The Giants took the righty out of the Rockies organization in the 2017 Rule 5 draft. He suffered an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery before he could throw a pitch for San Francisco and spent the entire following season on the MLB injured list. The Marlins claimed him off waivers the next offseason but he spent the entire 2019 campaign on the IL as well thanks to continued elbow issues.

Over the 2019-20 offseason, Miami relinquished his Rule 5 rights. That sent him back to his original organization, the Rockies, without requiring a 40-man roster spot. Fernández had racked up two years of MLB service without appearing in a game, but he finally got his first real opportunity late in the 2021 season. Colorado selected him onto their 40-man roster as a September call-up. He allowed eight runs in 6 2/3 innings over six outings, struggling with his control but averaging a blistering 99 MPH on a fastball that maxed out just shy of 101.

Fernández held his roster spot with Colorado last winter but spent the first few months of the season on optional assignment to Triple-A Albuquerque. He struggled and was designated for assignment in mid-June. He cleared outright waivers and stuck with the Isotopes for the entire season, tallying 57 innings across 58 appearances. The Dominican-born hurler allowed a 6.63 ERA in that extremely hitter-friendly league, serving up a staggering 2.37 home runs per nine innings. He struck out 24.9% of opponents on an impressive 13.6% swinging strike percentage, but the longball and a 12.3% walk rate proved too problematic for him to get back to the majors.

After qualifying for minor league free agency at season’s end, Fernández finds a new opportunity in Toronto. His arm strength is surely intriguing for the Jays pitching development staff even as his minor league performance track record has been inconsistent. The 27-year-old still has two minor league option years remaining, so if he cracks Toronto’s 40-man at any point, he can bounce between Rogers Centre and Triple-A Buffalo freely for the next couple seasons.

Which Teams Are Slated To Pay The Luxury Tax In 2023?

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The highest number of teams to pay the competitive balance tax in a single season is six, which occurred in 2016 and 2022. It’s possible that 2023 could be a record-breaking season in that regard, as Roster Resource currently has six teams already over the $233MM base threshold, while the Dodgers are a rounding error away from the line and another handful of teams not too far off.

These numbers are still unofficial, especially considering the arbitration salaries are mostly still estimates. Teams can also change their status by making trades throughout the year, either adding or subtracting from their ledger, but consider this a rough snapshot of where things currently stand.

Top Tier – CBT Above $293MM

The Mets are not just beyond the top CBT tier, they’re on another planet. Owner Steve Cohen has shown that he doesn’t care too much about what it costs to put a competitive team together, with their payroll currently projected for $376MM and a CBT figure of $390MM. They are currently slated to pay over $116MM in taxes alone, which is more than the total 2023 payroll of 11 teams.

CBT Between $273MM and $293MM

The Yankees are alone in this tier, but are just barely under the top threshold. Roster Resource currently has their CBT figure at $291.8MM, giving them very little room for further additions without going over. If they stay above the $273MM line, both the Yankees and Mets will see their top pick in the 2024 draft moved back by 10 spots. Both the Mets and Dodgers were more than $40MM above the base threshold in 2022, meaning their top draft picks will be moved back in the upcoming draft.

CBT Between $253MM and $273MM

The Padres are the only club in this section, with their CBT number currently pegged at $267MM.  Since they paid the tax in 2021 and 2022, they are set to be third-time payors in 2023. That means they are currently slated for a 62% tax on spending over the $253MM line and will continue to do so for any further additions. Jumping over the $273MM line would lead to a huge spike to a 95% rate, as well as their top 2024 draft pick being pushed back 10 slots.

CBT Between $233MM and $253MM

The Phillies, Braves and Blue Jays are currently in this group, with the Phils ahead of the other two at $251MM. The Phillies also paid the tax in 2022, setting them up to be a second-time payor. That means they are currently set to be taxed at a 30% rate, with that rate jumping to 42% for spending that goes over the $253MM line.

Both the Braves and Blue Jays would be paying the tax for the first time in their respective histories, putting them each in line for a 20% tax rate on spending over the line. The Jays are only a hair over right now, with Roster Resource calculating their number at $233.2MM, with Atlanta at $240MM.

Just Under The $233MM Threshold

The Dodgers are currently calculated for a CBT figure of $232.9MM, just barely under the lowest line. It’s been rumored they would like to limbo under the line in order to reset their status, since that would allow them to go into 2024 as a “first-time” payor. Doing so will be a challenge at this point unless they move something off their books.

A few other teams are within range of the Dodgers and could have to start thinking about the tax line if they make another significant signing or trade. The Rangers and Angels are each at $220MM, the Cubs at $214MM, the Red Sox $212MM, Astros at $209MM, Giants at $208MM and White Sox at $205MM.

Hyun-Jin Ryu Targeting July Return From Tommy John Surgery

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Hyun Jin Ryu saw his 2022 season cut short in mid-June, when a second bout of forearm soreness necessitated Tommy John surgery. Now more than six months removed from that procedure, the former All-Star is on track in his recovery.

Speaking with reporters in his home country of South Korea, Ryu said his rehab process remains on schedule (via Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News). The veteran starter indicated he hopes he can return to the Jays in July, roughly 13 months after going under the knife. All-Star festivities are scheduled for July 9-13, but a return early in the season’s unofficial second half seems like a rough target date as things stand.

Of course, that’s contingent on future steps in his rehab. Any kind of setback or delay once Ryu returns to throwing could push back that timetable. If all goes well, however, it’s possible he’ll play a role on the Toronto pitching staff for what the team hopes to be another postseason run.

Ryu made just six starts in 2022, allowing a 5.67 ERA across 27 innings. Forearm inflammation cost him a month between April and May and he suffered the setback that required surgery just four starts after his return from that IL stint. Through his first two seasons north of the border, the former ERA leader had a decent amount of success. He posted a 2.69 ERA across 12 starts during the truncated 2020 campaign, securing a third-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting as a result. His 4.37 ERA in 2021 marked a notable step back, but he stayed healthy enough to soak up 169 innings through 31 starts that year.

Toronto has an excellent top of the rotation, with Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman backed up by offseason signee Chris Bassitt. The Jays are hoping for a bounceback year from José Berríos, who had a disappointing first full season in Toronto but was an above-average pitcher between 2017-21. The fifth spot is up in the air, with neither Yusei Kikuchi nor Mitch White seizing the job. Former top prospect Nate Pearson remains on hand but pitched just 15 1/3 minor league innings in 2022 due to mononucleosis and a lat strain.

Ryu is headed into the final season of the four-year free agent deal he inked during the 2019-20 offseason. He’ll make $20MM before hitting the open market again at the end of the year. Getting back onto the mound and demonstrating his health with a handful of late-season starts would be a nice boost to his stock heading into the 2023-24 offseason.

GMs Ross Atkins, Mike Hazen Share Details On Blue Jays/Diamondbacks Trade

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After months of speculation and interest from multiple teams, the Diamondbacks finally traded one of their left-handed hitting outfielders and the Blue Jays finally moved one of their catchers.  The two clubs joined forces on Friday’s three-player deal that saw outfielder Daulton Varsho head to Toronto in exchange for catcher Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., in a trade that checks several boxes for both organizations.

Given how the D’Backs and Jays’ needs dovetailed so neatly, it isn’t a surprise that Toronto GM Ross Atkins said it was “from the very beginning of the off-season that dialogue began” between the two sides.

“It absolutely was a great fit with their surplus of outfielders, specifically left-handed hitting centre fielders and us having a surplus of catching and their need,” Atkins told reporters, including TSN’s Scott Mitchell. “Right from the start, we felt that was going to be a very important team and fit.”

The Blue Jays entered the winter with Moreno, Alejandro Kirk, and Danny Jansen all lined up as options behind the plate, with Moreno (one of the game’s best prospects) looking ready for an extended audition after making his MLB debut with 25 games played in 2022.  While Varsho has only 283 MLB games on his resume, he was actually the most experienced of Arizona’s outfield core — Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas both made their big league debuts in 2022, and Jake McCarthy has appeared in 123 games for the Diamondbacks over the last two seasons.

Varsho’s longer track record seemingly made him the most sought-after player by interested teams, especially since the D’Backs made Carroll (another elite prospect) all but untouchable in trade negotiations.  With the Diamondbacks intent on adding “impact in this trade,” according to Arizona general manager Mike Hazen, that need couldn’t be met just by shopping Thomas or McCarthy.

“I think there was more certainty — and clearly, we have it, too — with Daulton’s performance to this point in his career, and probably rightly so, that teams were willing to pay more for that.  I don’t know that we were ever going to cross that divide otherwise,” Hazen told the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro and other reporters.

Such teams as the Yankees, Reds, White Sox, Athletics, Astros, Brewers, and Marlins were also linked to the Diamondbacks’ outfielders on the rumor mill, as both contenders and rebuilding teams alike had interest in Arizona’s mix of controllable young players.  Likewise, Toronto got lots of calls about its catchers, but reports suggested that the Blue Jays first wanted to wait and see where some other catchers on the free agent and trade market landed.  Once the Braves acquired Sean Murphy from Oakland and once Willson Contreras (Cardinals) and Christian Vazquez (Twins) signed, the road was then a little more clear for the D’Backs and Jays to align on a trade.

Even then, Atkins said that finding a match was tricky since “all three catchers were of some interest to them and all of their outfielders were of some interest to us.  The component that made it challenging is that we were both trying to consolidate more talent on our Major League roster.  They are looking to take steps forward obviously and push the envelope on the winning front and that’s why Lourdes Gurriel came into the picture and made this deal work.”

Gurriel’s inclusion gives the D’Backs a veteran but not old (Gurriel is entering his age-29) outfield presence to join with Carroll, McCarthy, Thomas, and former AL Rookie Of The Year Kyle Lewis, who was acquired in another trade with the Mariners earlier this winter.  “I’m hoping the contact, the on-base, the ability to hit, the two-strike approach, is going to lend itself to making our lineup even tougher to face with the way some of those kids are going to be running around the bases the way they did last year,” Hazen said.  “I feel like a lot of that dynamic offense has a chance to be enhanced.”

The trade with the Jays and Mariners represent Arizona’s biggest moves of the winter, as the D’Backs have otherwise mostly focused on their bullpen with relatively lower-tier moves like the signings of Miguel Castro and Scott McGough.  Friday also saw the D’Backs complete another trade, bringing Diego Castillo from the Pirates to add more infield depth to the mix.

With Arizona still trying to finds its footing after three straight losing seasons, the Blue Jays are in a different position as a club intending to compete for a World Series in 2023.  After a disappointing collapse against Seattle in the Wild Card Series, the Jays have been aggressive in signing right-hander Chris Bassitt to a three-year, $63MM deal, signing Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year contract, and trading Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners for Erik Swanson and prospect Adam Macko.

Now that the Jays finally pulled the trigger on a catcher trade, Atkins said “I think our heavy lifting is done” for the rest of the offseason, though the front office is “certainly not ruling anything out and would expect some incremental improvements.”  Varsho and Kiermaier are both left-handed hitters, and thus the Blue Jays will “look to improve our team from the subtraction of Gurriel, but in our view it doesn’t need to be right-handed or left-handed, it’s more about the impact and the fit beyond that.”

Blue Jays Acquire Daulton Varsho From D-Backs For Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

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The Blue Jays announced that they have acquired outfielder Daulton Varsho from the Diamondbacks. Going the other way will be catching prospect Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr..

For the Blue Jays, they’ve long been looking to add a left-handed complement to their right-handed heavy lineup. They’ve also been rumored all offseason to be willing to deal from their catching surplus in order to address other areas of their roster. With Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Moreno all jockeying for playing time, it seemed like they would use one of them to line up a deal with a catching-needy team. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have drawn much trade interest this offseason on their multiple outfielders. Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy and Varsho are all left-handed and have various attributes, but it made for a logjam that many expected to be cleared via trade. Given those factors, the two teams have been frequently made for speculative trade partners, which has come to fruition with this deal.

Varsho, 26, was a top 100 prospect in the minors and debuted for the Diamondbacks in 2020. Though he was primarily a catcher, his natural athleticism has pushed him into more of an outfield role recently. It was reported towards the end of the 2022 campaign that the Diamondbacks were so impressed by his outfield work that they were planning to keep him there going forward. That was a fairly sensible conclusion to draw given his excellent defensive grades on the grass. He was given a +19 from Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield this year, along with an 18.8 from Ultimate Zone Rating and 17 Outs Above Average. All three of those figures were tops among all MLB outfielders this year, with the DRS tally tied with Michael A. Taylor. Varsho has seen time at all three outfield positions in his time in the big leagues thus far, giving the Jays plenty of flexibility in how he fits into their alignments.

The Blue Jays have largely been focused on run prevention this offseason, adding Chris Bassitt to their rotation, Erik Swanson to their bullpen and defensive specialist Kevin Kiermaier to their outfield. Now with Varsho, they’ve continued down that run prevention path by adding the best defensive outfielder of 2022. Varsho isn’t merely limited to being a glove-only contributor, however. He hit 27 home runs this year and stole 16 bases. He finished the season with a .235/.302/.443 batting line, good enough for a wRC+ of 106, indicating he was 6% above league average. Those contributions put together amounted to 4.6 wins above replacement for the year, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

This move, and their other moves this offseason, have resulted in righties Gurriel and Teoscar Hernández being swapped out for lefties Kiermaier and Varsho. Gurriel and Hernandez are more productive at the plate but both are generally regarded as subpar defenders, while Kiermaier and Varsho are generally the inverse, though Varsho took a big step forward at the plate this year. Varsho and Kiermaier should slot into an outfield mix that also includes George Springer and Whit Merrifield. While last year’s alignment saw Springer as the top defensive option, flanked by two bat-first teammates, he now seems like the third best defender in Toronto’s outfield mix.

For the Diamondbacks, they are acquiring one of the top prospects in the sport, regardless of position, but certainly one of the top catching prospects. Moreno, 23 in February, is considered the No. 3 prospect in the game by both Baseball America and FanGraphs. He made his MLB debut in 2022 and carried himself well in over his first 73 plate appearances, hitting .319/.356/.377 for a wRC+ of 113. Spending most of the year in Triple-A, he hit .315/.386/.420 for a wRC+ of 120. Though the power part of his game could be lacking, all reports point to him being an excellent defender who has keen bat-to-ball skills. That’s borne out by his 16.9% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year and 11% rate in his MLB debut.

The club has used Carson Kelly, 28, as its primary catcher over the past four seasons, who has proved inconsistent in that time. His 2019 and 2021 seasons were both above average at the plate, as he hit double-digit home runs and walk rates, leading to a wRC+ of 107 in the former and 103 in the latter. However, his 2020 and 2022 seasons were on the low side, with the walks and the power both dipping. He posted a wRC+ of 70 in 2020 and just 73 in 2022. Defensively, he’s generally considered around average, with DRS have graded him at exactly zero thus far in his career.

Kelly still has two years of arbitration control remaining and likely has the catching job for now, given Moreno’s youth and limited experience. Moreno will also require some time to get to know Arizona’s pitching staff. But as Moreno continues to develop, it’s possible that Kelly will get squeezed out in time and become a trade chip himself before he reaches the open market.

As they subtract from their multitude of left-handed hitting outfielders, the Diamondbacks are bringing in a right-hander for more balance in Gurriel. The 29-year-old has spent the past five seasons with the Jays and has a career batting line of .285/.329/.468 and a wRC+ of 115. He doesn’t come with a noticeable platoon split, as he has an even 115 wRC+ against both righties and lefties. That makes him perfectly capable of playing every day for the Snakes. He is in his final year of control before becoming a free agent, which doesn’t make him a long-term solution in the desert, but he should give the club some time to continue to evaluate young players like Carroll and Thomas. If those younger players take steps forward and command everyday jobs and/or the Diamondbacks aren’t in contention in the middle of 2023, Gurriel would make for an intriguing trade candidate.

Defensively, Gurriel broke in as an infielder but was moved to left field in 2019 and has largely been there since, apart from the occasional turn at first base. Reviews on his glovework are mixed, as he has a +4 in the outfield from DRS, but a -4.7 from UZR and a -16 OAA. That limits his contributions somewhat but his bat has been above average in each of his five seasons thus far.

Financially, the Jays will be saving a bit of money on this deal as Gurriel will be making $5.4MM in 2023, his final year before free agency. Varsho, meanwhile, has four years of control remaining but has qualified for arbitration this winter as a Super Two player. He just squeaked in on that one, as his two years and 128 days of service time are an exact match for this year’s cutoff. He’s projected for a salary of $2.8MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and will get three further arb raises through 2026. Moreno, meanwhile, has yet to reach arbitration with just a couple of months of time in the big leagues thus far, giving the Diamondbacks six further years of control over his services.

The slight financial difference won’t matter much to the Diamondbacks but could have ramifications for the Jays. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s competitive balance tax figure as just a hair over the lowest luxury tax threshold of $233MM. Those numbers are unofficial and will surely change with future moves throughout the offseason and during the actual season. The arbitration salaries are also just estimates and will have an impact on the tally once they are cemented. But if the Jays continue to hover right around the luxury tax line, the small savings could determine which side of that line they finish on.

In the end, both clubs addressed their needs by dealing from positions of strength. The Jays acquired an all-around player in Varsho who can help them this year and in the future. In order to do so, they’ve subtracted from their prospect capital and catching surplus, as well as dealing an impending free agent in Gurriel. For the Diamondbacks, they’ve sent out a solid contributor but should still have a great outfield without him, and they’ve also loaded their farm for future success. They now have four of the top 20 prospects in baseball, with Moreno at #3 at Baseball America, followed by Carroll at #5, shortstop Jordan Lawlar at #11 and outfielder Druw Jones at #19.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that the Jays were close to landing Varsho. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported a deal was in place that involved Varsho and Moreno. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first had the involvement of Gurriel.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs Claim Anthony Kay, Designate Alfonso Rivas

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The Cubs announced they’ve claimed left-hander Anthony Kay off waivers from the Blue Jays. To clear a 40-man roster spot, first baseman Alfonso Rivas was designated for assignment.

Kay lost his spot on the Toronto roster last week once the team officially signed Chris Bassitt. The 27-year-old had spent three-plus years in the organization. A former first-round draftee of the Mets, Kay was acquired alongside Simeon Woods Richardson in the 2019 trade that landed now-teammate Marcus Stroman in Queens. He’d been in Triple-A at the time and debuted at the big league level with Toronto later in the season.

The UCONN product has appeared in the bigs in four straight years, though he’s yet to top 33 2/3 innings in a season. He made only one MLB appearance in 2022, bringing him to 28 for his career. Working mostly as a multi-inning reliever, Kay has a 5.48 ERA through 70 2/3 innings. He’s fanned a solid 23.5% of opponents but walked batters at an 11.6% clip.

Kay has pitched parts of three years at Triple-A. He’s struggled to a 6.02 ERA over that stretch, thanks in large part to an 11.5% walk rate. The 2022 campaign was a particular challenge. Limited to 14 Triple-A innings by injury, he allowed 14 runs in as many innings with 15 strikeouts and 11 free passes.

While he hasn’t found much high level success to date, Kay represents an intriguing bullpen flier for the Chicago staff. He averaged 94.5 MPH with above-average spin on his fastball during his MLB outing this past season. He’s shown the ability to miss a decent number of bats and has a notable prospect pedigree, and the Cubs will work to try to iron out his control woes. He has one minor league option year remaining, so the Cubs can bounce him between Chicago and Triple-A Iowa next season if he holds his 40-man spot.

Rivas was a fourth-round pick of the Athletics in 2018. He was dealt to Chicago for Tony Kemp a year and a half later. Rivas didn’t play in 2020 because of the minor league cancelation and has spent the past two seasons in the upper levels. He’s moved between Chicago and Iowa as a depth option. He has hit well in Triple-A, posting a .300/.398/.433 line across 377 plate appearances. Rivas flashed that offensive potential at the MLB level in 2021 but stumbled to a .235/.322/.307 mark over 287 trips to the dish this year.

The left-handed hitter has shown a patient plate approach, working plenty of walks but also striking out quite a bit. That’s largely a product of the deep counts with which he’s comfortable. Rivas doesn’t have prototypical power for a player who’s limited to first base or the corner outfield, hitting four homers and six doubles in 119 big league games.

Chicago will have a week to deal Rivas or try to run him through waivers. If another team were to put in a claim or swing a small trade, they could option him to the minors for another two seasons.

Latest On Michael Conforto’s Market

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The Rangers made Michael Conforto an offer over the summer and have maintained interest in the free-agent outfielder throughout the offseason, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. That interest has led to recent talks with agent Scott Boras, who said earlier in the offseason that Conforto was eyeing a two-year contract with an opt-out opportunity after the first season.

Texas isn’t alone in courting Conforto. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that both the Blue Jays and Mets are still showing interest as well. (The Mets, of course, are the only team for which Conforto has ever played.) Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post adds (via Twitter) that the Rockies checked in but are not seen as a likely landing spot. Saunders lists the Cubs, Marlins and Rangers as teams more prominently involved in the Conforto bidding. Seattle and Houston were linked to Conforto earlier in the offseason, though the Astros’ reunion with Michael Brantley seemingly takes them out of the Conforto mix.

The Rangers are the most commonly cited suitor for Conforto, though that hardly ensures that he’ll be suiting up at Globe Life Field in 2023. Still, Texas has had a clear need for at least one outfielder all season but has thus far focused its free-agent and trade pursuits on pitchers. Conforto, 30 in March, would be a risky investment on a multi-year deal but would come with substantial upside; the former first-round pick posted a combined .265/.369/.495 batting line with 97 home runs, 86 doubles, three triples, a 12.7% walk rate and 24.4% strikeout rate in 1959 plate appearances from 2017-20.

Conforto’s platform year before reaching free agency, however, was disappointing. He followed that strong four-year run with a more pedestrian .232/.344/.384 batting line in his age-28 season in 2021. Conforto still rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, banking on a team being willing to forfeit a draft pick based on the strength of his overall track record. That didn’t happen prior to last winter’s lockout, though, and Conforto went on to suffer an offseason shoulder injury that required surgery in the spring. Despite interest from the Astros and the apparent offer from the Rangers, Conforto did not sign over the summer, instead ostensibly preferring to wait for an offseason deal and a fully healthy return to baseball. (Had he played last summer, it’s believed he’d have been limited to designated hitter duties.)

Rosenthal suggests that some teams are concerned about Conforto’s throwing in the wake of that surgery, though he’s currently throwing from a distance of 150 feet. For the Rangers, Conforto could potentially slot into left field, given Adolis Garcia’s presence in right field. That might help to mitigate some concerns about his arm strength — if Texas even has any at the moment. Rangers left fielders were far and away the worst in MLB last season, batting a combined .186/.253/.255. Every one of those rate stats ranked dead-last in the Majors, as did the resulting 47 wRC+. Texas, incredibly, gave 13 different players a look in left field last season.

While the Rangers stand as an obvious and perhaps the best fit for Conforto, his other reported suitors are all sensible landing spots, to varying degrees. The Blue Jays have a nearly all-right-handed lineup and have seen Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s offensive contributions wane in recent seasons; Gurriel still hit for a strong .291 average in 2022, but his power vanished and his defensive grades have never been particularly strong. GM Ross Atkins said just yesterday that his focus was shifting to upgrading the offense — ideally by adding a lefty bat who could slot into the outfield. Conforto checks a lot of boxes for them. As with the Rangers, Conforto could likely slot into left field with Toronto, lessening potential concerns about his throwing arm.

The Mets, meanwhile, already have a crowded roster and a bloated payroll, but owner Steve Cohen and GM Billy Eppler seem undeterred by either of those factors. Conforto could factor into Buck Showalter’s lineup as a left fielder and designated hitter, perhaps pushing Daniel Vogelbach into more of a bench role than the platoon DH role for which he’s currently set. It might not be an especially clean fit, but the Mets perhaps feel they’d be a deeper and better team by adding Conforto, which could well bump Darin Ruf (who struggled following his acquisition over the summer) or high-priced catcher James McCann from the roster.

The Cubs’ outfield is largely set, with Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki lined up from left to right, but there’s plenty of opportunity for Conforto to join the mix and rotate through the outfield corners and designated hitter. Neither the Rockies nor Marlins are ideal fits, but it’s nevertheless notable that both have looked into a potential match with Conforto. Both teams need center fielders more than a corner outfielder, however. Colorado could push Randal Grichuk to center, but he’s generally graded out as a better defender in right field. Miami, meanwhile, already has a pair of corner outfielders — Avisail Garcia, Jorge Soler — in search of a rebound, though the latter figures to spend the bulk of his time at designated hitter in 2023.

Between a fair number of teams with interest and this offseason’s rash of free-agent deals that allow players to opt back into the market as early as next offseason, Conforto’s chances of reaching that goal of a multi-year deal with an opt-out seems attainable.

Finding A Trade Partner For The Blue Jays’ Catching Surplus

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Entering the offseason, there were several high-profile catchers available for teams seeking upgrades — and the list of teams in search of an upgrade was quite long. Two months into the offseason, however, the options have dwindled in a hurry. Willson Contreras broke the hearts of many Cubs fans by signing for five years with the division-rival Cardinals. Christian Vazquez, the No. 2 catching option on the free-agent market, is headed to Minnesota on a three-year contract. Sean Murphy, the top option overall, was traded to a team that didn’t even expressly need a catcher — the Braves — and as a result of what wound up being a three-team swap, the Brewers saw William Contreras fall into their laps. Omar Narvaez signed with the Mets on a two-year, $15MM deal that gives him a chance to return to the market next winter.

Other teams have made smaller-scale moves. Cleveland added former Rays and Mariners slugger Mike Zunino on a one-year deal, likely removing them from the market. The A’s wound up taking Manny Pina’s contract from the Braves in that Murphy deal, so they’re unlikely to pursue a backup to prospect Shea Langeliers. The Reds inked Cincinnati native Luke Maile to back up Tyler Stephenson.

As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored last week, the catching market has been largely picked over — with one notable exception. The Blue Jays have yet to trade any of their three big league-caliber catchers: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk or Gabriel Moreno. There’s no dire need in Toronto to move any of that trio, but the Jays are a win-now team with a catching surplus and needs elsewhere on the roster (left-handed bat, bullpen help). Trading one of those catchers could bring back some needed help for the 2023 campaign while simultaneously adding a prospect or two to their system.

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins acknowledged the Jays’ surplus today, calling the catching market “exceptionally strong” but also expressing he’d be comfortable carrying all three of his catchers into the 2023 season (Twitter links via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). Moreover, Atkins suggested his focus is now shifting to improving the lineup — likely by adding a left-handed bat that could slot somewhere into the outfield mix. With many (but not all) of the top options on the free-agent market already picked over, it stands to reason the Jays could leverage their catching surplus to help address that need.

Of course, with so many teams having already filled their catching needs, the Blue Jays’ trade partners aren’t quite as plentiful as they might have been a few weeks ago. However, while they’ll likely be dealing with a smaller number of clubs now, the Jays have more leverage with those teams still seeking a catcher, because there just isn’t much else available in terms of starting-caliber difference makers behind the plate. Toronto’s wealth of catching options makes for one of the more fascinating trade scenarios around the league, so it seems worth it to take a closer look at the situation as a whole.

The potential trade candidates

Danny Jansen, 27, controlled through 2024 via arbitration (projected $3.7MM salary, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

It’s been an up-and-down career at the plate for Jansen, in part because injuries have intervened at times. Jansen missed more than a month in 2022 with separate injuries (broken finger, oblique strain) and missed a combined two months of the 2021 season with two separate hamstring strains. He’s played in just 142 games over the past two seasons.

On the flip side, Jansen has been anywhere from an above-average to excellent hitter in three of his five Major League seasons. He struggled in 2019-20 but since Opening Day 2021 carries a .243/.321/.496 batting line with 26 home runs in just 453 plate appearances. Jansen has easily the most power of the Jays’ three potentially available catchers and could realistically pop 25-plus homers if he were to stay healthy for a full season.

Defensively, Jansen has been about average in terms of caught-stealing rate and has above-average framing marks for his career, though those dipped to below-average in 2022 (perhaps not coincidentally, given that the aforementioned fractured finger was on his glove hand). Jansen has two arb years left but shouldn’t break the bank in that time. There are health concerns, but he’s a clear starting-caliber catcher who’d be an improvement for more than a third of the teams in MLB.

Alejandro Kirk, 24, controlled through 2026 (pre-arbitration in 2023)

Kirk only turned 24 in November but already has two years of Major League service time, an All-Star nod and a Silver Slugger under his belt. He appeared in 139 games for the Jays in 2022, serving as their primary catcher while Jansen missed time due to the aforementioned injuries. Along the way, Kirk hit .285/.372/.415 with 14 homers and 19 doubles. A hit-over-power player, Kirk has a career .278/.362/.426 slash with an 11% walk rate against an 11.1% strikeout rate (83 walks to 84 strikeouts).

Strong as the bat is, Kirk isn’t without limitations. He’s one of the slowest players in baseball (third percentile sprint speed, per Statcast) and has a below-average caught-stealing rate, due in part to slow “pop times” when coming out of his crouch; Statcast rated his pop time to second base in the 32nd percentile of MLB catchers. On the other hand, Kirk draws outstanding framing marks and above-average grades for blocking pitches in the dirt.

Gabriel Moreno, 22, controlled through at least 2028 (pre-arbitration in 2023)

Moreno is likely the most difficult of the entire bunch to move, given his remaining six years of club control and status as one of the five best prospects in baseball. He’ll turn 23 in February and just wrapped up a season that saw him bat .315/.386/.420 in 267 Triple-A plate appearances before batting .319/.356/.377 with just an 11% strikeout rate in 73 MLB plate appearances as a rookie.

While he’s not billed as a major power threat — Moreno’s career-high in homers is 12, and he hit just four in 2022 — Moreno draws praise from scouting reports for a potential plus-plus hit tool and strong glovework behind the dish. He’s not necessarily “fast,” but he’s not the plodder many would expect from any catcher. He drew average grades for his speed on scouting reports, and Statcast pegged him right in the 50th percentile for sprint speed this past season. Even if he’s not hitting more than 10 to 15 homers per year, Moreno has the potential to post high batting averages and on-base percentages while providing better-than-average defense behind the plate.

Which teams are likely OUT on a catcher

Teams that already added a starter this winter

Any of the Jays’ three catchers would be viewed as a potential starter on a substantial portion of MLB’s 30 teams, but as noted above, a fair number of teams have already found a new starting catcher this winter. Don’t expect the Cardinals (Willson Contreras), Twins (Christian Vazquez), Braves (Sean Murhpy), Brewers (William Contreras), Guardians (Mike Zunino) or Mets (Omar Narvaez) to make a play for one of Jansen, Kirk or Moreno after all six of those clubs already landed a new starting backstop this winter.

Teams that already have a standout or promising young incumbent

The Braves’ acquisition of Murphy shows that teams can never fully be ruled out of finding a creative way to acquire a new, impact player — but it still seems unlikely that any of the remaining clubs with a high-end starter behind the dish will make a play for a Jays catcher. That means the Phillies (J.T. Realmuto), Dodgers (Will Smith), Orioles (Adley Rutschman), Reds (Tyler Stephenson) and Royals (Salvador Perez, defensive issues notwithstanding) all seem unlikely to pursue any of Toronto’s backstops.

Teams with controllable young catchers of their own will also likely steer clear. Seattle’s Cal Raleigh had his OBP woes in ’22 but also hit with more power than any catcher in MLB. Top Angels prospect Logan O’Hoppe will get every opportunity to establish himself in 2023. The Rangers’ Jonah Heim and Yankees’ Jose Trevino, both standout defenders with several years of club control remaining, remove any urgency for either club to dive headlong into this market as well.

Rebuilding clubs with young catchers

You could certainly make that argument that a rebuilding team like the Nationals, A’s or Pirates would be wise to pursue Kirk or especially Moreno, but the Jays are going to want controllable, MLB-ready help in return, which a lot of rebuilding clubs don’t have in spades. Add in the fact that the Nats (Keibert Ruiz), A’s (Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom) and Pirates (Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez) all have young catchers of note already in house, and a trade becomes more difficult to see.

Long shot teams (for one reason or another)

The White Sox would probably be thrilled to get their hands on a Jays catcher, but Toronto’s top need is a left-handed-hitting outfielder, and Gavin Sheets isn’t going to be the centerpiece for anyone in this Toronto catching corps. The Sox also have a year and $18.25MM to go on their deal with Yasmani Grandal — a contract not easily moved. I’m sure the Tigers would love Kirk or Moreno, but they’re lacking in MLB talent from which to deal.

The Padres got a disappointing year from Austin Nola in 2022 but also have ballyhooed top prospect Luis Campusano as an in-house alternative. The Marlins still need catching help after a poor showing from Jacob Stallings but lack the MLB-ready outfield help the Jays might covet in trade. The Rockies are in a similar boat, having received a dismal showing from Elias Diaz in 2023. Like the Marlins, they’re short on the type of big league help the Jays would seek.

The most logical trade partners (listed alphabetically)

  • Astros: After missing out on Willson Contreras in free agency, the Astros will once again entrust light-hitting Martin Maldonado behind the plate. Maldonado played through a hernia and a broken bone in his hand, but his lack of production can’t be blamed on those injuries alone. Dating back to 2015, Maldonado’s 72 wRC+ is 16th-worst among 459 qualified MLB hitters. The Astros love Maldonado’s defense, game calling, game planning, and clubhouse leadership — and to his/their credit, they won a World Series with Maldonado as their primary catcher. That said, he’ll be 37 next summer and is on a one-year deal. Prospect Korey Lee hasn’t hit much above A-ball. There’s a good on-paper fit here, though the elephant in the room is that the Astros lack the MLB-ready bat the Jays might covet in return; Kyle Tucker surely isn’t going anywhere.
  • Cubs: The Cubs let Contreras walk, deferring to the older and more defensively-minded Yan Gomes while waiting for prospect Miguel Amaya, who missed much of last season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Any of the three Jays catchers would be an upgrade to the Cubs’ roster, and either Kirk or Moreno would supplant Amaya as the organization’s catcher of the future. The Cubs don’t have the controllable, big-league-ready bat the Jays might prefer, but they could send a year of switch-hitting outfielder Ian Happ and a prospect package behind him if they were to become serious about landing a Toronto catcher.
  • D-backs: The cleanest fit for a good-old-fashioned “baseball” trade, the D-backs have four left-handed-hitting outfielders — Jake McCarthy, Daulton Varsho, Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll — and are open to offers in a similar capacity to the Jays with regard to their catchers. Carroll seems all but untouchable, but any of McCarthy, Varsho or Thomas seems like a feasible starting point when looking at Toronto’s more controllable catchers (Kirk, Moreno). Toronto and Arizona are excellent trade partners, in this regard.
  • Giants: There’s likely still hope in San Francisco that Joey Bart can solidify himself as the everyday catcher, but he’s seen MLB time in three seasons now and owns a .222/.294/.351 slash in 408 plate appearances. Bart hasn’t dominated Triple-A pitching, either, and the Giants at least inquired with the A’s about Murphy before his trade to Atlanta. Like the ’Stros, however, I’m not sure the Giants have the sort of immediate upgrades Toronto would seek. Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. are both lefty-swinging outfielders with three remaining years of club control, but both are coming off down seasons at the plate.
  • Rays: Francisco Mejia hasn’t developed into the hitter anyone hoped, and journeyman Christian Bethancourt posted a .265 OBP with the Rays in 2022. The Rays were a rumored suitor for Murphy and checked in on Willson Contreras at the trade deadline. They’re clearly open to augmenting the catching staff, though payroll is always a consideration. The Rays aren’t deep in left-handed bats, but Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe and Jonathan Aranda could all have some appeal to the Jays. The former Lowe is still signed affordably for four years, though, while the latter has yet to deliver on his former top prospect status. Aranda, meanwhile, has torn through upper-minors pitching but is a poor defender who lacks a clear defensive home. With the Rays, of course, it’s worth wondering whether division rivals would even be amenable to swapping long-term pieces.
  • Red Sox: That last point on the Rays applies here, too, but the trade of Vazquez (and his subsequent deal with the Twins) leaves the Sox with a combination of Reese McGuire and Connor Wong behind the plate. Boston doesn’t have another catcher on the 40-man roster, and the closest they have to an MLB-ready catching prospect is Ronaldo Hernandez, who went unclaimed on waivers two weeks ago. This is an organization that would benefit either from a two-year bridge like Jansen or, more improbably, a long-term solution like Kirk or Moreno. Perhaps there’d need to be some pieces added to balance both sides of the deal, but either Alex Verdugo or Jarren Duran fall into the bucket of MLB-ready outfield help the Jays could consider.

The D-backs represent the cleanest fit, in my view, though there are plenty of other options to consider, particularly if you want to brainstorm potential three-teams swaps like the one that sent Murphy to Atlanta. The bottom line, however, is that while many catching-needy teams have filled their vacancies, the Jays should still have plenty of interest in their catchers in the weeks to come. At this point, the majority of the roads on the catching market run through Toronto.

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