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Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Have Discussed Extension

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The Blue Jays and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have discussed a contract extension, though it doesn’t appear the two sides got anywhere close to a deal, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The slugger said that he would love to stay in Toronto for his entire career but that the negotiations “haven’t reached the point that there’s something serious about it.”

It’s unclear exactly when these talks took place but Guerrero said in January that extension talks had not yet taken place. That would seemingly point to the negotiations taking place during Spring Training, a fairly standard time for those kinds of conversations.

From the point of view of the Jays, it’s hardly a surprise that they have interest in securing Guerrero’s services for the future. The former top prospect has established himself as a premier hitter in the majors over the past few seasons. He hit 48 home runs in 2021 and slashed .311/.401/.601 for a wRC+ of 166. In most years, that would have been good enough for an MVP award, but Vladdy had the misfortune of having that season coincide with Shohei Ohtani’s true emergence as a two-way player. That led to Guerrero coming in second in the vote behind Ohtani.

Last year, Guerrero dipped slightly but still hit 32 home runs and put up a .274/.339/.480 batting line and 132 wRC+. He also stole eight bases and showed progress with his first base defense, winning a Gold Glove award and coming in seventh among all major league first basemen in the voting for the Fielding Bible Awards. He’s off to a roaring start here in 2023, hitting .400/.472/.556 through 11 games. All of that has coincided with a return to contention for the club, who made the expanded playoffs in 2020 and then tallied 91 and 92 victories in the subsequent two seasons.

But from the player’s point of view, there’s little reason for him to settle for anything below market value, even if his comments about wanting to stay are genuine. As the son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, who made millions of dollars in his career, the younger Guerrero likely began from a stronger financial position than many of his peers. On top of that, he was a highly touted player as a teenager, signing a bonus of $3.9MM when he was 16 years old. He’s now progressed through to his arbitration years, first qualifying last year as a Super Two player. He made $7.9MM last year and got that bumped up to $14.5MM this year. He’s slated for two more passes through arbitration before reaching free agency after 2025.

With all of that money already in the bank and plenty more on the way, Guerrero has tons of leverage. Walking away from money always carries the risk of a serious injury later diminishing one’s earning power, but Guerrero already has plenty of security and is currently slated for free agency ahead of his age-27 season. He doesn’t play a premier defensive position, but his youth and offensive abilities should still make him quite attractive as a free agent if a deal with the Blue Jays doesn’t get done.

The Blue Jays have a few contracts on the books beyond that 2025 season, which is currently lined up to be Guerrero’s last. José Berríos is on the books through 2028 while George Springer and Kevin Gausman are signed through 2026. That leaves plenty of room for a big contract for someone like Guerrero, but the Jays also have other players to consider. Third baseman Matt Chapman is a free agent at the end of this season, while shortstop Bo Bichette is in the same boat as Guerrero, set for free agency after 2025. The club has also reportedly had some talks with right-hander Alek Manoah, though those didn’t appear to gain much traction either. Manoah’s case is less urgent since he’s not slated to hit the open market until after 2027.

Although the talks with Guerrero haven’t made much progress yet, he doesn’t seem to be walking away from the table. “I’m going to take care of what I’ve got to take care of, which is on the field, and the rest I’m going to leave to my agents to work with,” he said. “I know who I am. I know my value. We’re going to keep having conversations, but all my focus every day is here on the field.”

Blue Jays Claim Jordan Luplow From Braves

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The Blue Jays announced that they have claimed outfielder Jordan Luplow off waivers from the Braves and optioned him to Triple-A. Luplow had been designated for assignment by Atlanta earlier this week when that club selected rookie pitcher Dylan Dodd. In a corresponding move, the Jays transferred lefty Hyun Jin Ryu to the 60-day injured list.

Luplow, 29, has appeared in the past six major league seasons, suiting up for Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Tampa Bay and Arizona. He’s largely taken on part-time duties, as his 85 games and 261 plate appearances in 2019 are both career highs. The right-handed hitter is generally viewed as a short-side platoon option, often putting up good numbers against lefties. His career batting line against southpaws is .226/.337/.505 for a wRC+ of 125, compared to a .200/.288/.355 line and 76 wRC+ against righties.

Last year, Luplow didn’t hit well against pitchers from either side, slashing .176/.274/.361 for the Diamondbacks. They could have retained him via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $2MM salary, though the D’Backs opted to cut him from the roster at the end of the season instead. Atlanta picked him by signing him to a slightly lower price point of $1.4MM, but he didn’t make the club’s Opening Day roster. They had picked up a few other candidates for part-time outfield roles, such as Sam Hilliard, Kevin Pillar and Eli White. That nudged Luplow to the minors to start the season and off the 40-man shortly thereafter.

For the Jays, they previously had a righty-heavy outfield but tipped the scales the other way this offseason. Righties Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. were both traded away while lefties Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier were brought aboard and Nathan Lukes won the bench outfield job out of camp. Luplow will head to Triple-A Buffalo for now but he could potentially be recalled at some point to play matchups and take some at-bats against tough lefties.

He currently has between four and five years of MLB service time, meaning the Jays could retain him for next season via arbitration if he lasts the whole year on the roster. He has just one option year remaining, however, meaning he will likely be out of options next year. Once he spends 20 days in the minors, then 2023 will officially burn his last option year.

As for Ryu, this transfer comes as no surprise as he’s recovering from Tommy John surgery and is targeting a return around the All-Star break. This move was an inevitable formality, with the Jays waiting until they found a player they liked on the waiver wire to make it.

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays reached a new spending frontier, and reshaped a good chunk of their starting lineup.  Is it enough to bring the Jays some postseason success?

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $41.55MM
Total spending: $89.8MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Teoscar Hernandez led the Blue Jays in plate appearances from 2018-22, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. finished fourth on that list.  So when GM Ross Atkins said in October that the Jays were less likely to change the team’s core during the winter, that ended up not quite being the case, though it’s fair to argue that Atkins perhaps didn’t consider two outfielders slated for free agency in the 2023-24 offseason as true “core” pieces.

Phrasing quibbles aside, Toronto leaves the offseason with a lineup that has considerably more balance between left-handed and right-handed batters, more speed, and more defense than last year’s squad.  On paper, the Jays look better prepared for both the reconfigured outfield dimensions of their home ballpark, and for a 2023 season that will put a broader emphasis on speed and glovework due to the new rules.

The Jays got right to business in revamping their outfield mix, as Hernandez was dealt to the Mariners in one of the offseason’s most notable early moves.  The trade brought the Blue Jays a young arm for the future in Adam Macko, and the more immediate help that Erik Swanson can provide to the bullpen.  Swanson has pitched well for the last two seasons, particularly a 2022 campaign that saw him post a 1.88 ERA and mostly-elite secondary numbers across the board in 53 2/3 relief innings for Seattle.

With the aftershock of the Blue Jays’ bullpen collapse in Game 2 of the wild card series (against the Mariners, ironically) still lingering, it was hard to argue that Toronto didn’t need to bolster its relief corps in some fashion.  Swanson will bring some needed strikeouts to the bullpen, and the Jays figure to use him in many types of high-leverage situations, including some traditional set-up innings in front of closer Jordan Romano.

Hernandez’s departure set the table for the next big outfield move, which also saw the Blue Jays finally dip into their significant amount of catching depth.  It isn’t often that a club moves a consensus top prospect like Gabriel Moreno, yet since Toronto also had Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen lined up behind the plate, all three backstops have been prominently featured in trade rumors for the better part of a year.

The Jays were willing to wait a little longer to finally trade a catcher, as their swap with the Diamondbacks didn’t come together until Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez were already off the free-agent catching market, and after the A’s had moved another major catching trade chip in Sean Murphy.  Arizona was also a team with a notable trade surplus, as its group of left-handed hitting outfielders attracted many teams besides just Toronto.  But, with the D’Backs needing catching and the Jays needed left-handed hitting outfield help, the fit was perfect.  Gurriel’s inclusion along with Moreno finally got the Diamondbacks to budge on Varsho, which was an acceptable result for the Blue Jays since Gurriel was already looking like an expendable asset.

The 26-year-old Varsho is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season, giving the Blue Jays a long-term asset that they see as an outfield cornerstone.  Only 28 players in baseball had a higher fWAR in 2022 than Varsho’s 4.6 number, as he combined excellent defense with strong baserunning and above-average (106 wRC+) offensive production in the form of 27 home runs and .235/.302/.443 slash line in 592 plate appearances.

There is naturally still room for improvement in Varsho’s numbers, particularly when it comes to drawing walks and making contact (Varsho struck out 145 times in 2022).  The Blue Jays are hoping that last season might represent Varsho’s floor as an offensive player, and even if he does have a similar year at the plate, Toronto isn’t going to mind another all-around performance in the 4.6 fWAR range.

Before the trade with Arizona, the Jays had already improved their outfield defense by signing Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM free agent contract.  Kiermaier has been one of baseball’s best defensive players for the better part of the decade, and after being a frequent thorn in Toronto’s side as a member of the Rays, Kiermaier now moves elsewhere in the AL East after Tampa Bay declined their $13MM club option on his services for 2022.

Signing Kiermaier carries some obvious risk, considering that he has been an average offensive player at best during his career, and (most pressingly) a very frequent visitor to the injured list.  Last season was no different, as Kiermaier’s 2022 campaign ended in July when he had to undergo surgery to repair a torn hip labrum.  In theory, this surgery might finally correct what has long been a lingering issue for Kiermaier, yet it is also fair to wonder what Kiermaier has left in the tank as he enters his age-33 season and is coming off yet another substantial injury layoff.

Should Kiermaier again need to miss time, Toronto has a ready-made center field replacement in Varsho, or George Springer might even move back to his old position from his new right field spot.  Whit Merrifield and Cavan Biggio will figure into the corner outfield picture, with rookie Nathan Lukes also serving in a backup outfield capacity.

The result is a vastly superior defensive outfield, as the Varsho/Kiermaier/Springer alignment from left to right is streets ahead of the Gurriel/Springer/Hernandez trio that Toronto often used in 2022.  Even from a depth perspective, the Jays are in a better position than last year, when injuries to the starters meant a lot of playing time for such replacement-level outfielders as Raimel Tapia, Bradley Zimmer, or Jackie Bradley Jr.  Losing Hernandez’s bat may weaken the lineup, or maybe not if Varsho takes a step forward, or if Springer’s move to a less-strenuous outfield position helps him stay on the field more often.

With two left-handed bats in Varsho and Kiermaier added to the lineup, the Blue Jays added a third by signing longtime Giants first baseman Brandon Belt as the primary designated hitter.  Health is again a red flag here, as Belt has battled knee problems for years and underwent surgery on his right knee back in September.  Though those issues surely contributed to Belt’s subpar numbers in 2022, he was posting monster numbers when healthy in 2020-21, hitting .285/.393/.595 with 38 homers in 560 PA over those two seasons.

As with Kiermaier, the Jays have made preparations in case Belt has to miss more time, as any of Toronto’s right-handed bats could get a DH day whenever a left-handed starter is on the mound.  Belt said he felt reinvigorated in the aftermath of his knee surgery, so between good health, the move to a more hitter-friendly park (with more tempting dimensions for left-handed hitters), and less of a worry about defensive shifts, there is reason to think Belt can bounce back from his tough 2022 season.

These new faces will augment the team’s core group of Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman, and the now-solidified catching tandem of Kirk and Jansen.  Second base remains a bit of a question mark, but the Blue Jays seem confident that the combination of Merrifield, Biggio, and Santiago Espinal can be productive.  Toronto wasn’t really linked to many notable infield upgrades on the rumor mill this winter, with the exception of agent Scott Boras stating that the Jays “were really after” his client Xander Bogaerts before Bogaerts signed with the Padres.

Exploring big-name acquisitions has become routine for the Toronto front office in the last few years, with Atkins and company at least checking in on a wide array of players as a matter of due diligence.  The 2022-23 offseason was no exception, as the Blue Jays reportedly had varying degrees of interest in such players as Bogaerts, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, Brandon Nimmo, Carlos Rodon, Cody Bellinger, Johnny Cueto, Michael Brantley, Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon, Andrew Heaney, Masataka Yoshida, Kyle Gibson, Michael Conforto, Joey Gallo, Robert Suarez, Alex Reyes, and their own most notable free agent in Ross Stripling.

Though some of those signings may have more realistic possibilities than others, the fact that the Blue Jays are able to consider basically any player speaks to the team’s greater financial flexibility.  After spending a club-record $171MM on payroll in 2022, the Jays have boosted that number even further with approximately $211.7MM committed to salaries this season.  This translates to a luxury tax number of roughly $250.5MM, putting the Jays over the luxury tax threshold for the first time and quite close to the secondary Competitive Balance Tax threshold of $253MM.

Big-spending teams like the Yankees and Padres have slightly curbed their spending to stay under particular tiers of tax penalties, and it isn’t known if the Blue Jays might similarly see the second CBT line as an upper limit on their spending.  Still, given how aggressive the Jays have been, it is hard to imagine that the club wouldn’t be willing to surpass the $253MM line if it meant picking up a necessary addition at the trade deadline, for instance.  Exceeding the next tier ($273MM) might be a different story since the Jays would then see their top draft choice in 2023 knocked back ten places in the draft order.  But, the CBT’s impact on other non-financial penalties (such as the draft pick cost and compensation for free agents who reject qualifying offers) is the same for the Blue Jays if their tax figure is anywhere from $233MM to a dollar below the $273MM mark.

The Jays didn’t have any qualms about pursuing a QO free agent this offseason, as the team gave up $500K in international bonus pool money and its second-highest pick in the 2023 draft in order to make its biggest signing of the winter.  It wasn’t any surprise that most of the names on Toronto’s target list were pitchers, and the Blue Jays landed some necessary rotation help by signing Chris Bassitt to a three-year, $63MM deal.

The Giants’ inclusion of an opt-out clause allowed San Francisco to entice Stripling away from a possible reunion with the Jays, meaning that Toronto had an even more marked need to find a replacement for Stripling’s quality production.  Bassitt was the answer, as he cashed in on the heels of a strong four-year run with the Athletics and Mets.  With a knack for inducing soft contact and limiting walks, Bassitt has been a thoroughly solid arm, and he’ll line up as the Blue Jays’ third starter behind Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman.

Even if the top three has been reinforced, however, an argument can certainly be made that the Jays might have done more at the back end of the rotation.  The Blue Jays are certainly hoping that Jose Berrios will be at worst a good fourth starter if he bounces back from his mediocre 2022 campaign, and fifth starter Yusei Kikuchi is also looking to rebound from a dismal season.

If Kikuchi falters again, the Blue Jays can turn to a group that includes Zach Thompson (acquired in a January trade with the Pirates), non-roster options like Drew Hutchison or Bowden Francis, or Mitch White when he is healthy.  Hyun-Jin Ryu might return from Tommy John surgery around the All-Star break, but it’s an open guess as to what Ryu can contribute after his long layoff.  If not Ryu, perhaps top prospects Ricky Tiedemann or Yosver Zulueta might become possibilities by the second half, but overall, there’s a lot of uncertainty about how the Jays’ rotation might look by the end of the season.

The rotation questions only put more pressure on the bullpen, and in speaking of late-season additions, Chad Green was another notable winter signing, joining the Blue Jays on an option-heavy deal that could be as little as a two-year, $8.5MM deal, or as much as a four-year, $29.25MM pact.  Green had Tommy John surgery last May, so he might also be something of an unofficial “deadline acquisition” that is already in the organization.  If Green can make a quick return to anything close to his past form with the Yankees, he’ll be another nice fit for the relief corps.

It was an altogether interesting offseason in Toronto, as the club didn’t exactly overhaul things (not that such an extreme was needed after a 92-win season) but also did more than just add the proverbial finishing touches to the roster.  The Blue Jays will again face stiff competition to return to the playoffs, but just getting into the postseason wouldn’t be satisfactory for a team that clearly has designs on a championship.

How would you grade the Blue Jays’ offseason? (poll link for app users)

Blue Jays Re-Sign Jay Jackson

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March 29: The Blue Jays announced the signing of Jackson to a one-year, Major League contract. He will indeed head to Triple-A Buffalo for now. Righty Chad Green, who’s still on the mend from Tommy John surgery, was moved to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

March 28: The Blue Jays and righty Jay Jackson have agreed to a new split contract following the reliever’s release a few days ago, reports Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet (Twitter thread). Jackson, a client of Nello Gamberdino, will earn a $1.5MM salary at the MLB level.

The 35-year-old Jackson originally inked a minor league deal with the Jays over the winter. He enjoyed a strong spring, yielding only a pair of unearned runs on seven hits and two walks while punching out 13 hitters over the course of 9 1/3 frames.

That excellent spring effort in many ways marked a continuation of a strong run that Jackson enjoyed with the Braves organization in 2022. He tossed just 1 1/3 scoreless innings with the big league club in Atlanta, though his lack of opportunity was largely due to a stacked MLB bullpen. Jackson posted a 2.29 ERA with a 31.3% strikeout rate and 5% walk rate in 19 Triple-A appearances as well.

Jackson spent the 2021 season with the Giants organization, pitching to a 3.74 ERA with a 31.1% strikeout rate and 13.3% walk rate in 21 2/3 big league innings. He’s also spent parts of four seasons in Japan, split between the Hiroshima Carp and Chiba Lotte Marines, with a combined 2.16 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate in 183 innings there. It’s far from a typical career arc, but Jackson has had plenty of success from his late 20s into his mid-30s, and he could get a chance to continue that trend with the Blue Jays before long.

AL East Notes: Lukes, Hamilton, Mondesi

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Blue Jays manager John Schneider informed reporters, including Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, than outfielder Nathan Lukes has made the club’s Opening Day roster.

Lukes, 28, will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. A 2015 seventh-rounder, Lukes has spent eight years in the minors, going from Cleveland to Tampa Bay in the 2016 trade that sent Brandon Guyer the other way. He reached Triple-A by 2019, then saw the minor leagues get cancelled by the pandemic in 2020. He spent another year at Durham in 2021 but wasn’t given a roster spot and reached minor league free agency after that season.

Lukes signed a minor league deal with the Jays last year and impressed them enough that they added him to their 40-man roster in November. He’s never been a top prospect because he doesn’t really have a standout tool, but he does seem to do a bit of everything with some success. For the Bisons last year, he hit 11 home runs and stole 20 bases, walking in 9.7% of his plate appearances while limiting strikeouts to an 18.4% clip. His .285/.364/.425 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 111, and he spent time at all three outfield positions.

The Blue Jays previously had a very right-handed heavy lineup but have addressed that imbalance this winter. Righties Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. were traded while lefties Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier were brought aboard. That puts a bit less importance on the left-handed bat of Lukes, though he does give the club a true fourth outfielder, perhaps allowing Whit Merrifield and Cavan Biggio to stay on the infield more often that not.

Some other notes from around the AL East…

  • The Yankees have reassigned right-hander Ian Hamilton, who was in camp on a minor league deal, to Triple-A. Per Joel Sherman of The New York Post (Twitter links), Hamilton has the ability to opt out of his deal and return to free agency, but agreed to move his opt-out date to April 5. Hamilton had a nice spring, tossing nine scoreless innings while striking out six batters and walking three. It seems the club doesn’t have room for him on Opening Day, but their bullpen depth is a concern. Tommy Kahnle and Lou Trivino suffered injuries during spring and will be starting the season on the injured list. Since starters Carlos Rodon, Frankie Montas and Luis Severino are also starting the season on the IL, the weakened rotation will put extra pressure on the bullpen. Hamilton will stick with the organization for at least one extra week to see if his services are needed, but he could wind up back on the open market after that. He spent most of last year at Triple-A in the Twins’ organization, posting a 1.88 ERA with a 32.1% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 51.6% ground ball rate.
  • The Red Sox will need to find a roster spot for outfielder Raimel Tapia, who is going to make the club’s Opening Day roster. There’s still nothing official but Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe reports that the corresponding move for Tapia could be infielder Adalberto Mondesi going on the 60-day injured list. Mondesi, 27, has shown tremendous talent in his career but is also frequently injured. He only played 15 games last year before being diagnosed with a torn ACL in late April that required surgery. Mondesi was expected to miss some of the start of the season but a trip to the 60-day IL would prevent him from returning until late May. The Sox picked him up from the Royals in a January trade sending lefty Josh Taylor to Kansas City. At the time, the hope was that he could help provide some middle infield cover in the wake of Trevor Story’s elbow surgery. Mondesi is in his final season of club control before reaching free agency for the first time.

Blue Jays Notes: White, Bullpen, Pearson

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Blue Jays manager John Schneider told reporters today, including Keegan Matheson of MLB.com, that right-hander Mitch White is dealing with elbow inflammation. The injury seems likely to force White to start the season on the injured list, as he had already been slowed earlier this spring by a shoulder impingement.

White, 28, was acquired by Toronto in a deal with the Dodgers last summer and struggled down the stretch, posting a 7.74 ERA in 43 big league innings with the Blue Jays last year. Despite those concerning numbers, White pitched a fair bit better than they would indicate. A sky-high BABIP of .368 and a strand rate of just 54.3% during his time pitching for Toronto last year help to explain his solid 3.76 FIP even as his strikeout rate dropped to just 15.3% with the Blue Jays. White also looked better in the first half of the year with Los Angeles, posting a 3.70 ERA with a 19.8% strikeout rate in 56 innings of work for the Dodgers.

Given his success with the Dodgers and unfortunate luck in his first stint with the Blue Jays, White seemed likely to make the bullpen as the primary long relief option for the club. With that no longer feasible, Matheson notes that right-hander Zach Pop appears poised to make the Opening Day roster. Pop impressed in 39 innings of work in 2022 split between Toronto and Miami, recording a sterling 2.77 ERA largely backed up by his 2.96 FIP.

While this set-up would leave the Blue Jays without a traditional long reliever in their bullpen, Schneider seems unperturbed by this, telling reporters that both Pop and fellow righty Trevor Richards, who opened four games for the Jays last year as a spot starter, can both be options to go multiple innings if necessary.

Schneider’s comments come on the heels of another round of cuts from Blue Jays camp, including former top prospect Nate Pearson. The right-handed Pearson, now 26, missed most of the 2022 season with mononucleosis after struggling to a 5.18 ERA in 33 big league innings across the 2020 and 2021 seasons. Now a full-time reliever, Pearson figures to get another chance in the big leagues at some point this season, but that opportunity will not come on Opening Day.

Also among today’s cuts was right-hander Zach Thompson, who Toronto acquired from the Pirates earlier this offseason after pitching to a 5.18 ERA in 121 2/3 innings in a swing role for Pittsburgh last year. Thompson figures to be a depth option for the Blue Jays’s rotation this year alongside players like Thomas Hatch and Bowden Francis, who were also among today’s cuts from big league camp.

Blue Jays Release Jay Jackson

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The Blue Jays released right-hander Jay Jackson from his minor league deal with the team, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports (Twitter link).  Jackson’s deal included a clause requiring the Jays to release him today if he wasn’t going to make the Major League roster.

The 35-year-old Jackson is a veteran of four MLB seasons, as well as four seasons pitching in Nippon Professional Baseball.  Since returning to North America during the 2020 season, Jackson has been a member of four different organizations, and seen time at the big league level with the Giants and Braves.  After tossing 21 2/3 innings with San Francisco in 2021, Jackson appeared in just two games with Atlanta last year, mostly due to a lat strain that kept him on the injured list for almost half the season.  It marked the second straight injury-riddled year for Jackson, as a hamstring tear kept him on the shelf for a big chunk of the 2021 campaign.

According to Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling, five other teams besides Toronto had interest in Jackson as a free agent last year, so it is quite possible he could land elsewhere in pretty quick fashion.  Between his strong numbers in Japan and at the Triple-A level when healthy, Jackson would certainly seem to have something left to offer interested suitors, especially after a big Spring Training.

With a flawless 0.00 ERA in 9 1/3 innings and 13 strikeouts in 37 batters faced this spring, one would imagine the Jays would’ve been able to find room for Jackson had they not already had a bullpen full of pretty established relief options.  Jackson took something of a different approach to his free agency this offseason, as he told Zwelling that he wants to pitch for a winning team, even if that means a more difficult route to winning a bullpen job.

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The AL East?

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The AL East was perhaps the strongest division in baseball last season, with three teams that made the postseason, four that finished above .500, and a fifth place team that would have finished third in most other divisions. Given that divisional strength last season, it’s no surprise that Fangraphs’ Playoff Odds give every team in the AL East at least an 8% chance to make the playoffs. By contrast, no other division’s projected last place team tops Detroit’s 3.1% odds. With Opening Day just over a week away, let’s take a look at the AL East’s five clubs (in order of their finish in the 2022 standings) in search of the division’s next champion.

New York Yankees (99-63 in 2022)

The Yankees were historically dominant in the first half of the 2022 season, but struggled to a 43-42 finish in the regular season after the calendar flipped to July, largely buoyed by the heroics of AL MVP (and pending free agent) Aaron Judge. Most of the focus this offseason in the Bronx was on retaining Judge, which they did on a nine-year deal. They also re-signed Anthony Rizzo to lock down first base, but signed just two new players to big league deals this offseason: lefty ace Carlos Rodon signed a six-year deal while reliever Tommy Kahnle signed on for two years. What’s worth, both of those free agent acquisitions are expected to open the season on the injured list alongside trade deadline pickups Harrison Bader and Frankie Montas.

Between an offseason marked by a low quantity (though high quality) of additions and a slew of spring injuries, this Yankees team looks unlikely to reach the heights they did in the first half of 2022, having lost the likes of Jameson Taillon and Matt Carpenter to free agency this offseason, but perhaps healthy returns from the likes of Rodon and Bader can help them improve upon their second half struggles from last season, to say nothing of exciting prospects like Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe who seem likely to impact the club at some point this year.

Toronto Blue Jays (92-70 in 2022)

After a solid campaign that saw the Blue Jays return to the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2016, Toronto was aggressive in mixing up their roster throughout the offseason. In an effort to get more left-handed and improve the defense, the club added Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier to their outfield mix at the expense of Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno while also landing Brandon Belt to solidify the DH spot. As for the pitching staff, Chris Bassitt was brought in to solidify the middle of the rotation behind Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah, while Erik Swanson will strengthen the back of the Toronto bullpen.

While the Blue Jays certainly made significant changes over the course of the season, whether they can surpass the Yankees to claim the division crown will likely require returns to form for some players who performed below expectations in 2022, such as Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi, both of whom figure to open the season in the rotation despite posting ERAs north of 5.00 last season.

Tampa Bay Rays (86-76 in 2022)

After making their fourth consecutive postseason in 2022, the Rays had a very quiet offseason, with no major trade acquisitions and right-hander Zach Eflin standing as their lone major league signing. Indeed, it seems most of Tampa Bay’s resources were dedicated to extensions, as they agreed to long-term deals with Pete Fairbanks, Yandy Diaz, and Jeffery Springs shortly after the calendar flipped to 2023. That left the roster churn this offseason to be defined by departures rather than additions, as key players like Kevin Kiermaier, Mike Zunino and Ji-Man Choi departed the organization.

Still, the Rays have plenty of assets in place with which to make things interesting, as young players like Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Isaac Parades turned in excellent performances in 2022. With so few changes to the roster following a season where they finished 13 games back in the division race, however, the Rays are likely going to have to bank on improved health from stars Tyler Glasnow and Wander Franco along with bigger contributions from players who struggled last season like Brandon Lowe, Taylor Walls and Francisco Mejia if they are to claim the NL East crown this year.

Baltimore Orioles (83-79 in 2022)

The Orioles were one of the most fascinating stories of the 2022 season, as the club surged in the summer months toward surprise contention after not having won more than 54 games since 2017, though they ultimately failed to make the postseason. With young talent like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Grayson Rodriguez all either already in the big leagues or knocking on the door, with still more prospects to come, it seemed as though the rebuild in Baltimore was over.

Expectations have surely been tempered among the Orioles faithful after a relatively quiet offseason, however. Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, and Mychal Givens made up the club’s free agent signings this offseason. That said, Mike Elias’s front office did fairly well on the trade market, picking up Cole Irvin to solidify the rotation and James McCann to back up Rutschman. After a surprise surge over .500 in 2022, it’s easy to imagine the Orioles slipping back underwater in 2023. That being said, with so much young talent breaking into the majors and percolating in the upper levels of the farm system, they certainly can’t be ruled out from making a surprise push into playoff contention or even toward the division title.

Boston Red Sox (78-84 in 2022)

2022 was a difficult season for the Red Sox, as the club finished three games under .500 despite opting not to sell off valuable players like Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi and J.D. Martinez who went on to walk in free agency this offseason. The headline move of this offseason for the Red Sox has to be Rafael Devers signing a ten-year extension back in January, but the Red Sox were active players in the offseason marketplace as well, adding Mastaka Yoshida, Corey Kluber, Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen, and Adalberto Mondesi, among others. Still, the departures of Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Martinez, Rich Hill, and Michael Wacha, in addition to the deadline trade that sent Christian Vazquez out of the organization, all left plenty of question marks on the roster.

Those questions are particularly worrisome up the middle, where the Red Sox figure to use Adam Duvall, Enrique Hernandez, Reese McGuire, and Christian Arroyo to open the season. The Red Sox enter 2023 with more than enough talent on the roster to attempt to return to contention this season. That being said, there’s enough question marks and holes in the roster that it’s just as easy to see another sub-.500 season from this club as it is to see a return to the playoffs after missing out in 2022.

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While this division ultimately seems most likely to come down to the Yankees and the Blue Jays, who both finished well ahead of the competition in 2022 and improved most significantly over the offseason, the AL East could certainly see all five of its clubs in the thick of the postseason hunt come the summertime. What do MLBTR readers think? Will the Yankees reclaim the crown, will the Blue Jays or Rays surge from their Wild Card spots to capture the division title, or will the Orioles or Red Sox surprise? Let us know in the poll below.

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Blue Jays Notes: Ryu, Barger, Lopez, Lukes

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Left-hander Hyun Jin Ryu, now nine months out from last summer’s Tommy John surgery, is throwing from 90 to 120 feet and still aiming for a mid-July return to the Blue Jays’ pitching staff, writes Keegan Matheson of MLB.com. He’s throwing off flat ground for now but could progress to mound work by mid-April. The timeline aligns with the goal that Ryu stated back in December, but it’s positive development that he’s progressed through his spring throwing program without setbacks and hasn’t had to push that goal further down the road.

Ryu, who’ll turn 36 later this week, is entering the final season of a four-year, $80MM contract signed prior to the 2020 season. He finished third in AL Cy Young voting during the shortened ’20 campaign and gave the Jays 31 roughly average starts in 2021 before an elbow injury limited him to 27 innings and resulted in surgery last June. If he’s indeed able to return at any point midsummer, he could be a boon to a rotation that currently is hoping for rebounds from fourth and fifth starters Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi. Each of Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman and offseason signee Chris Bassitt delivered strong results in 2022, and top prospect Ricky Tiedemann is looming as an option at some point in 2023 as well.

Turning to more immediate matters on the roster, the Blue Jays announced last night that they’ve optioned  infielder Addison Barger to Triple-A, thinning the race for the team’s final bench spot in the process. Barger, a sixth-round pick in 2018, was selected to the 40-man roster back in November on the heels of a combined .308/.378/.555 showing across three minor league levels. He had a nice Grapefruit League showing, batting .294/.351/.441 in 37 trips to the plate, but the 23-year-old still has just eight regular-season games at the Triple-A level under his belt.

Barger ranks as the club’s No. 4 prospect Baseball America and landed at No. 53 on FanGraphs’ Top 100 prospect rankings heading into the 2023 season. He’s undoubtedly viewed as a key piece for the Jays in the future, but the infield already has veterans Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette and Whit Merrifield lined up from third base to second base, to say nothing of bench options like Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio in the mix for at-bats. As such, Barger will head to Buffalo and continue to get regular reps that might not be available to him at the MLB level.

With Barger out of the mix for now, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets that it’s likely either infielder/outfielder Otto Lopez or outfielder Nathan Lukes will claim the team’s final bench spot. Lopez, 24, went 5-for-17 with a homer, a triple and a walk playing for Canada in the World Baseball Classic and is 7-for-15 with a double and a triple in Jays camp this spring. He’s primarily been a middle infielder in the minors but has at least 500 innings in both left field and center field in his professional career. Lukes, who has yet to make his MLB debut, is hitting .278/.342/.389 in 41 spring plate appearances and can play all three outfield spots. He’d give a righty-heavy Toronto lineup another left-handed bat, whereas Lopez is another right-handed stick.

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