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Atkins: Blue Jays Shifting Focus To Offense

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The Blue Jays’ offseason has primarily been focused on run prevention to this point, as the club has added Chris Bassitt to their rotation, Erik Swanson to their bullpen and defensive specialist Kevin Kiermaier to their outfield. General manager Ross Atkins spoke with the media today as part of Bassitt’s introduction to the press and said that their focus will now “shift to offensive improvement,” per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.

The Blue Jays were one of the strongest offensive teams in the league in 2022, as their collective .264/.329/.431 batting line was 18% above league average. The team-wide 118 wRC+ was the second-best mark in the majors, trailing only the 119 of the Dodgers. Most of the club’s lineup projects to be back for 2023, with the most notable departure being Teoscar Hernández, who went to the Mariners in the Swanson trade.

The club has since added Kiermaier to their outfield mix, who is a much better defender than Hernandez but inferior on offense. Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 in 2022 for a 90 wRC+ and has a career batting line of .248/.308/.407, 97 wRC+. Hernandez hit .267/.316/.491 in 2022, 129 wRC+, and has a career slash line of .262/.319/.499 for a 120 wRC+. Given that gap, it’s unsurprising that the club would look to find some more offense before the offseason is done.

The most likely method for the Jays to find that extra pop in the lineup is through a left-handed hitting outfielder. The club has already been connected to players like Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger, Michael Brantley and Masataka Yoshida, though all four of those players have now agreed to terms elsewhere. Michael Conforto in still unsigned, with the Jays having been connected to him in the past. He would be a risky play since he missed all of 2022 due to shoulder surgery and also had a disappointing season in 2021. But in the four-year stretch from 2017 to 2020, he hit .265/.369/.495 for a wRC+ of 133. If he’s capable of getting back to that range, that would go a long way to making up for the departure of Hernandez.

Signing Conforto or some other free agent like Jurickson Profar, Matt Carpenter or David Peralta would add to the club’s payroll and luxury tax ledger, but that doesn’t seem to be an issue at the moment. “We’re not limited financially,” Atkins tells Nicholson-Smith. Roster Resource puts the club’s payroll at $207MM at the moment, which is already a franchise high. They are also into luxury tax territory for the first time, with their CBT number just a hair over the $233MM threshold. Based on Atkins’ comments, it seems there’s still more room to continue adding.

Another path to the club upgrading would be trade, with the club’s three catchers being frequently mentioned in trade rumors for quite some time. The club has yet to pull the trigger, with Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno all still on the roster. Recent reporting suggested that the club would be comfortable holding onto all three and Atkins backed that up today. He said that the catching market is “exceptionally strong,” per Nicholson-Smith, but that the Jays are “100% comfortable” keeping all three and “remaining in that position of strength.”

Though the focus is on offense, it seems a pitching upgrade is still on the table. “We’ll continue to think about ways to improve,” Atkins told the press, per Nicholson-Smith. That lines up with recent reporting that suggested they’ve shown interest in Johnny Cueto, though it seems the lineup will be top of the agenda for now.

AL East Notes: Blue Jays’ Catchers, Yoshida, Red Sox

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All off-season it’s seemed a matter of when not if the Blue Jays trade one of their three catchers – Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen and Gabriel Moreno. According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the Blue Jays were open to trading Jansen to bring in a starting pitcher, but after landing Chris Bassitt on a three-year, $63MM deal Feinsand reports that a trade is no certainty now.

In any event, Toronto is in a strong negotiating position as there’s a few paths they could go down. The clear top two free agent options – Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez – are off the board, while the Braves have acquired Sean Murphy, making the Blue Jays the clear and obvious fit for any catcher-hungry teams. They could also opt to carry three catchers on the active roster, cycling players through the DH spot, or option Moreno back to Triple-A and go with a Kirk-Jansen tandem to begin the year at least.

The additions of Bassitt to the rotation and Kevin Kiermaier to the outfield decrease the clear needs for the Blue Jays to address this winter, but in a competitive AL East, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them ultimately opt to pursue further upgrades, whether via trade or free agency. As Jon Heyman of the New York Post notes, the Jays were finalists for Masataka Yoshida (the Dodgers were the other finalist) before he signed for the Red Sox. It’s not clear whether the Kiermaier signing arose because they missed out on Yoshida, or whether they tried to sign both, but given the former’s injury history and declining production it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them seek another outfielder.

Boston’s signing of Yoshida addressed the need to upgrade their offense following the departure of Xander Bogaerts to San Diego. It also likely spelled the end of any chance of Eric Hosmer, who was DFA’d yesterday, receiving regular at bats. The Red Sox look to have locked in youngster Triston Casas as their everyday first-baseman moving forward, while Yoshida (and others) could well take a few DH at bats as the Red Sox cycle through their outfielders. Boston’s chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom addressed the DFA of Hosmer to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.

“Our roster isn’t complete yet, but as we build our club, we feel it’s important to give Triston a clear lane, and that carrying two left-handed hitting first basemen would leave us short in other areas. Given that, it’s important to do right by Eric and give him time to find his next opportunity. We knew when we first got him that this day would come at some point, and wanted to make sure we treated him right.”

Cotillo also reports that the Red Sox tried hard to trade Hosmer prior to DFA’ing him, but found minimal interest in the league. Hosmer did receive a full no-trade clause as part of the trade that sent him from San Diego to Boston at the deadline, but Cotillo’s report said that the lack of trade interest meant the no-trade clause didn’t even come into play. The Red Sox can still trade him while he’s on waivers, but it seems likely he’d be released onto the open market.

While an outgoing trade of Hosmer seems unlikely, the team is working on incomings, and recently asked the Marlins about Miguel Rojas, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rojas was one of the top defensive shortstops in the sport last season, and as Rosenthal notes, the Marlins value that defense and rebuffed Boston’s inquiry. Rojas is under contract for one more year at an affordable $5MM salary.

Blue Jays To Sign Chris Bassitt

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December 16: Bassit’s deal has now been officially announced by the team, with left-hander Anthony Kay designated for assignment in a corresponding move. The contract is split into three even salaries of $21MM, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The first season will actually be a $3MM signing bonus and $18MM salary, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

December 12: The Blue Jays have agreed to a three-year, $63MM contract with free-agent righty Chris Bassitt, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Bassitt is represented by Meister Sports Management.

In adding Bassitt, the Jays have fortified a rotation that saw Ross Stripling reach free agency, lost Hyun Jin Ryu to Tommy John surgery early in the summer, and experienced substantial struggles from righty Jose Berrios and lefty Yusei Kikuchi in 2022. The ultra-consistent Bassitt will step into the mix behind third-place Cy Young finisher Alek Manoah and ninth-place finisher Kevin Gausman, with Berrios and Kikuchi likely to follow.

Bassitt, 34 in February, is a late-bloomer who didn’t establish himself as a consistent big league rotation piece until his age-29 season — partly due to Tommy John surgery wiping out the bulk of his 2016 season and all of his 2017 campaign. However, since a 2019 breakout with the A’s, he’s been among the sport’s most effective arms. In that time, Bassitt carries a sharp 3.31 ERA with a strong 23.1% strikeout rate, a tidy 6.7% walk rate and a 44.3% ground ball rate that’s a bit better than average.

Though Bassitt’s results have been excellent, he hasn’t quite yet solidified himself as a 30-start workhorse, although that’s not necessarily through any fault of his own. He missed the first few weeks of the 2019 season due to a leg contusion he suffered late in a spring training game but came back to make 28 appearances (25 starts) of 3.81 ERA ball. In 2020, he made 11 starts and tallied 63 innings during the pandemic-shortened 60-game schedule.

Bassitt looked well on his way to a career-best season in 2021 but was interrupted by one of the most frightening scenes in recent baseball memory, when he took a 100 mph line-drive off his face. The right-hander immediately dropped into a heap on the mound and had to be carted off the field with a towel covering his face. While there was originally some concern of long-term vision problems, Bassitt incredibly escaped with “only” fractures in his cheekbone and jawbone, with no further damage being revealed on a subsequent CT scan and no long-term vision issues. Bassitt not only avoided a worst-case scenario but returned from surgery just six weeks later and pitched 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball across two appearances to close out the season.

Traded to the Mets as part of the Athletics’ fire sale following the 2021 season — Oakland acquired righties J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller in the deal — Bassitt made a career-high 30 starts and reached a career-high 181 2/3 innings in New York. He also averaged better than six innings per start, turned in a career-best 48.8% ground-ball rate and recorded a 3.42 ERA with fielding-independent marks to match in what’ll now likely be his lone season in Queens.

The Mets made Bassitt a $19.65MM qualifying offer, which he unsurprisingly rejected, recognizing the opportunity for just this type of lucrative multi-year deal. By signing him to this contract, which lands right in line with the three-year, $60MM predicted by MLBTR at the outset of the offseason, the Blue Jays will be required to forfeit their second-highest pick in next summer’s draft. They’ll also see the cap on their international bonus pool for amateur free agents reduced by $500K.

That’s all of minimal concern to the Blue Jays, who are clearly in win-now mode as they look to keep pace in one of the game’s most competitive divisions. Adding Bassitt is a large step toward that end — one that ostensibly aligns with a push to improve the team’s run-prevention, perhaps at the expense of some offensive thunder.

Toronto kicked off its winter by trading its final year of club control over Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners — a deal that netted them an under-the-radar but high-end reliever, Erik Swanson, and a fairly well regarded pitching prospect, Adam Macko. The Jays remained largely quiet in the weeks to come, but just this weekend struck a deal with longtime Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier — one of the premier defensive players in the sport (when healthy). Of course, staying on the field has been difficult for the oft-injured Kiermaier and his devil-may-care approach to defense in center; he’s currently on the mend from season-ending hip surgery.

While the financial specifics of Kiermaier’s contract have yet to come to light, the sequence of moves will surely bring the Jays up to a franchise-record payroll. Bassitt alone brings their projected payroll a bit north of $200MM — already a club record — and Roster Resource projects their luxury-tax ledger to check in a bit north of $225MM. It’s possible that Kiermaier alone will push them to the $233MM first tier of luxury penalization, which would mark the first time the Blue Jays have crossed that barrier.

Of course, the entire picture could still change — at least to some extent. Toronto is also in the market for a left-handed bat to add to an near-entirely right-handed lineup, and the Jays’ front office has reportedly been willing to listen to trade offers on its trio of MLB-caliber catchers: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno. Free agents Michael Brantley and Michael Conforto are among the most obvious fits, but the Jays could also ship one-third of that catching triumvirate out as part of a deal to acquire a younger left-handed bat and/or additional reinforcements to a bullpen that could still benefit from an arm or two.

However the remainder of the offseason plays out, Bassitt’s addition to a pair of righties who generated some Cy Young love in 2022 should give the Jays a formidable rotation, even if none of Berrios, Kikuchi or sixth starter/swingman Mitch White bound back in 2023. Not only will the Jays be strong on a per-inning basis, but the combination of Manoah, Gausman and Bassitt have all averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start in recent years, which should go a long way toward helping keep the team’s bullpen fresh.

Berrios, at his best, has been similar — averaging six-plus innings per outing in 2018, 2019 and 2021. However,, the 2022 season was a wildly uncharacteristic one for Berrios, who in many ways paralleled Bassitt in terms of consistent, year-to-year results prior to his first full campaign in Toronto. If any of Bassitt, Kikuchi or White can turn in a strong showing this coming season, Toronto’s rotation could very well rank among the best and deepest in Major League Baseball.

Blue Jays Designate Anthony Kay For Assignment

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The Blue Jays have officially announced their signing of right-hander Chris Bassitt. To make room on the 40-man roster, left-hander Anthony Kay has been designated for assignment.

A first-round selection of the Mets in 2016, Kay was seen as a potential quick-to-the-majors starter based on the strength of his control. He underwent Tommy John surgery just a few months into his professional career, however, costing him the entire 2017 campaign. Kay returned with a new curveball to pair with his fastball-changeup combination, working his way to Triple-A by 2019.

Midway through that season, New York dealt him to the Blue Jays alongside Simeon Woods Richardson to land Marcus Stroman. Kay got to the big leagues briefly at the end of the year, making three appearances with Toronto. He’s appeared at the MLB level in each of the three subsequent seasons, though he’s yet to establish himself as a consistent presence on a big league staff.

Kay has made 28 MLB appearances, seven of which were starts. Over 70 2/3 innings, he owns a 5.48 ERA. Kay has averaged 94 MPH on his fastball and punched out a solid 23.5% of batters faced, but the plus control that was once his calling card has dipped. He’s walked nearly 12% of big league opponents, and the Jays have bounced him on and off the MLB roster the past few seasons.

Through parts of three Triple-A campaigns, the UCONN product owns a 6.02 ERA in 107 2/3 frames. He was limited to eight outings and 14 innings at that level this year, losing much of the season on the minor league injured list. Kay looked rusty in that stretch, surrendering 14 runs with 15 strikeouts and 11 walks.

Toronto will now have a week to trade Kay or place him on waivers. The 27-year-old still has a minor league option year remaining, so another team could stash him in Triple-A for a season if they’re willing to keep him on the 40-man roster. With between one and two years of MLB service, he won’t reach arbitration until after the 2024 season at the earliest.

Blue Jays Sign Kevin Kiermaier

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Dec. 15: The Blue Jays have formally announced their one-year deal with Kiermaier. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the contract contains $750K of bonuses based on days spent on the active roster.

Dec. 14: Kiermaier’s contract is a one-year deal that comes with a $9MM guarantee, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link).

Between Kiermaier’s $9MM salary and the recent $21MM annual value on the Jays’ three-year deal with righty Chris Bassitt, the Jays now project to cross the luxury-tax threshold for the first time; Roster Resource pegs them at just over $234MM — a bit more than $1MM north of the $233MM cutoff point. Certainly there are ways for Toronto to duck back beneath the barrier if required — a trade of catcher Danny Jansen, for instance, would clear his projected $3.7MM salary and bring back help in other areas of need — but there’s no indication that ownership has placed given the front office any such mandates.

Dec. 10: The Blue Jays have an agreement in place with center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The deal is pending a physical. It’ll be just the second team Kiermaier has played for, having spent ten big league seasons with the AL East rival Rays. He became a free agent for the first time after the Rays declined his $13MM team option for 2023. Kiermaier is represented by Equity Baseball.

Center field has been an area of need for the Blue Jays this winter, and they had previously been linked with Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger.

The 32-year-old appeared in 63 games for the Rays last season, slashing .228/.281/.369 with seven home runs over 221 plate appearances. He’s always been known for his stellar defense in center field, and while that’s declined a bit in recent seasons he was still worth two Defensive Runs Saved there in 2022. The offensive production amounted to a below average wRC+ of 90, but his defensive work meant he was still worth 1.1 fWAR.

Injuries played a big part in Kiermaier’s 2022 season, as he landed on the IL in June with left hip inflammation. He was activated July 1, but by July 10 he was back on the IL with the same problem, which ultimately ended his season early. He’d wind up having surgery in August to address the labrum issue in the left hip, but the expectation at the time was that he’d be ready for spring training.

Kiermaier is a three-time Gold Glove winner who’s been one of the best center fielders in all of baseball for the past decade. Since his first full year in 2014, Kiermaier has been worth 147 Defensive Runs Saved, according to Fielding Bible. That’s the best of all outfielders and second overall behind Andrelton Simmons (who had 1,400 more defensive innings).

Despite 2022 being the worst defensive year of his career, it was still above average and there’s every chance his hip problem played a significant part in that. After all, just a year ago he was worth 13 DRS in 894 2/3 center field innings. He still ranked in the 93rd percentile in sprint speed and ranked well above league average in arm strength.

Offense has never been Kiermaier’s calling, and he owns a lifetime .248/.308/.407 line. That’s largely built off his early work, and since 2018 he’s put up a wRC+ of 79, 79, 94, 101 and then 90. There’s not a lot of power there (82 career home runs), and his strikeout rate has gradually ticked up to 27.6% in 2022 against a walk rate of 6.3%.

George Springer has been handling the bulk of the work in center field in recent seasons, but there’s been speculation that he’d move to a corner spot moving forward. The trade of Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners and this signing of Kiermaier seems to confirm that, and it looks likely the Jays will line up with Springer and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the corner spots with Kiermaier manning center.

This move may not be the last outfield addition either, and the team could look to add a fourth offensively-minded outfielder at some stage. Ben Nicholson-Smith of SportsNet reports that the team has interest in both Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley. Signing either of those two would give the Jays a more flexible outfield group, and allow them to rotate options through the DH position as well depending on matchups, form and workload.

Photo credit: USA Today Sports.

Blue Jays Have Shown Interest In Johnny Cueto

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The Blue Jays made a notable addition to their rotation this week by signing right-hander Chris Bassitt to a three-year deal, but they might not be done. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that the club is open to further additions and have shown recent interest in righty Johnny Cueto.

The club has four rotation spots now spoken for, with Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Bassitt all locked in as long as they’re healthy. The final spot in the rotation is a bit less concrete, however. The club signed lefty Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year deal going into 2022 but saw him struggle badly, eventually getting bumped to the bullpen and finishing the year with a 5.19 ERA. Righty Mitch White had a 3.70 ERA with the Dodgers when the Jays acquired him at the deadline, but he posted a 7.74 ERA after the deal. Hyun Jin Ryu underwent Tommy John surgery in June and won’t be an option until the second half of the season even in a best-case scenario. Nate Pearson was once one of the top pitching prospects in baseball but he’s been limited by various injuries to less than 50 innings in each of the past three seasons. Given all that uncertainty at the back end, it’s unsurprising that a win-now club like the Jays would be open to adding a stable veteran.

Cueto, 37 in February, surely fits the bill having pitched in each of the past 15 MLB seasons with a career 3.44 ERA. One of the best pitchers in baseball earlier in his career, he’s falling from those incredible heights but has proven himself to still be quite useful of late. He dealt with injuries and was barely able to pitch in 2018 and 2019, then struggled in the shortened 2020 season. However, he’s had a solid return to form in each of the past two campaigns.

With the Giants in 2021, he tossed 114 2/3 innings with a 4.08 ERA. His 20% strikeout rate was a bit shy of average, but his 6.1% walk rate was quite strong. He reached free agency after that campaign and lingered on the market after the lockout. He eventually signed a minor league deal with the White Sox in early April, though one that would pay him a prorated $4.2MM salary once in the majors. After getting built up to a starter’s workload, he made it back to the big leagues in May and eventually tossed 158 1/3 innings for the Pale Hose with a 3.35 ERA. Similar to the year before, he didn’t rack up the strikeouts, finishing with a 15.7% rate. However, his control was even better, as he walked just 5.1% of batters faced. He got grounders on 42.6% of balls in play and limited hard contact, coming in the 67th percentile in terms of hard hit percentage and 69th percentile in terms of average exit velocity.

Given Cueto’s age, he will likely be limited to a one-year deal but he should still earn a decent salary. He’s coming off a stronger platform than he was one year ago and the market for starting pitching has been quite strong overall this year. The free agent market still has a few surefire starters in Carlos Rodón, Nathan Eovaldi, Noah Syndergaard and Michael Wacha, but Cueto is one of the more attractive options outside of that group. Others include Corey Kluber, Drew Smyly and Drew Rucinski.

Notably, the Blue Jays are now positioned to pay the competitive balance tax for the first time in franchise history. The recent signings of Bassitt and Kevin Kiermaier have nudged the team just barely over the $233MM threshold, according to Roster Resource. It’s always possible that they could make a trade that puts them back under, but it seems possible the club is willing to stay over the line by season’s end. If that is indeed the case, then perhaps they are willing to spend a bit more to add Cueto or someone similar to their pitching staff. Nicholson-Smith relays that president Mark Shapiro recently said that the CBT is “not an obstacle” for ownership. “The support and the growth of that payroll is unprecedented in the history of the franchise and it continues to be very strong.”

It’s unclear how high they plan on taking the payroll, but they appear to be targeting areas other than the rotation. Nicholson-Smith reiterates their known interest in outfielders and adds that they have been showing interest in “high-upside relievers” even after acquiring Erik Swanson in the Teoscar Hernández trade earlier this winter. No names are listed as specific targets, but some of the top relief names on the open market are Taylor Rogers, Andrew Chafin, Adam Ottavino and Michael Fulmer. Nicholson-Smith adds on Twitter that it’s possible the Jays are more likely to add in the bullpen than the rotation, despite the interest in Cueto.

D-Backs’ Outfielders Drawing Widespread Trade Interest

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The Diamondbacks have an interesting stockpile of upper level outfielders from which they’re largely expected to deal. General manager Mike Hazen and his staff have long signaled a willingness to field offers to upgrade other areas of the roster and they’re unsurprisingly drawing attention from a host of teams.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports roughly 10 clubs have been in touch with Hazen and company regarding at least one of the team’s outfielders. Piecoro lists the Yankees, Brewers, Blue Jays, A’s, Marlins, White Sox and Reds as clubs with interest, while both Piecoro and Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle report the Astros are in the mix.

Arizona has a number of players that could draw interest, and it stands to reason different teams have varied preferences on the group. Corbin Carroll is arguably the top prospect in baseball, and both Piecoro and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic have suggested recently he’s off the table in trade discussions. Carroll’s presence gives the Snakes a potential franchise center fielder, though, freeing them up to listen to offers on their other outfielders.

Daulton Varsho is the most established of the group, and he’d be the toughest to pry from the desert. The 26-year-old got off to a slow start offensively in the majors, but he broke through in his third season. Varsho connected on 27 home runs with a .235/.302/.443 line across 592 plate appearances in 2022. That’s slightly better than average production at the plate, and he offers immense value in other areas. Varsho stole 16 bases (albeit with six failed attempts as well), and he has emerged as one of the game’s best defensive outfielders.

Also an intermittent catcher at times in his career, he’s acclimated to outfield work incredibly well. Varsho’s an above-average runner, and Statcast credits him with elite reads off the bat. By its Outs Above Average metric, Varsho made an estimated 18 more plays than expected in his 920 1/3 innings between center and right field this year. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him a combined 19 runs above par, with both metrics grading him highly in both center and the corner outfield. Varsho doesn’t have a great throwing arm — part of the reason he’s increasingly moved off catcher in the first place — but he’s an athletic, rangy defender who can cover anywhere in the outfield and occasionally factor in at catcher if needed.

Varsho qualified for early arbitration as a Super Two player this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an affordable $2.8MM salary, and he comes with four remaining seasons of club control. Between the all-around production and affordable window of control, the trade appeal with Varsho is immense.

That’s not true to the same extent for the Snakes’ other outfielders, but there’s still a fair amount of appeal. Jake McCarthy is a former supplemental first-round draftee, but most prospect evaluators believed he’d be better suited for fourth outfield duty. While that may wind up being the case, the 25-year-old outperformed that projection in 354 plate appearances this past season. McCarthy hit .283/.342/.427 with eight home runs and stole 23 bases on just 26 tries. His average exit velocity and hard contact percentage are a bit below-average, and the offensive profile was propped up by a .349 batting average on balls in play. The Virginia product is an excellent baserunner who’s athletic enough to cover all three outfield spots, though, and he generally has a solid offensive track record in the minors. McCarthy still hasn’t reached a full year of service time and is controllable through 2028.

Alek Thomas offers a similar profile but is a different story, in that he’s been a top prospect who has yet to find much MLB success. The sport’s #32 prospect heading into 2022 according to Baseball America, Thomas debuted in May. He spent most of the year as their primary center fielder but struggled, hitting .231/.275/.344 through 411 plate appearances. He didn’t draw many walks or drive the ball with much authority, and the tough line led to a demotion back to Triple-A at the end of the season. Thomas won’t turn 23 until next April and is a career .313/.389/.499 hitter in the minor leagues, though. He’s regarded as a potential plus defensive center fielder with strong contact skills. Like McCarthy, he has yet to reach even one year of MLB service.

The trio of Varsho, McCarthy and Thomas is certain to draw the most trade interest, but Arizona also has Pavin Smith and Dominic Fletcher as depth options on the 40-man roster. Smith hasn’t done much at the MLB level but is a former top ten pick. Fletcher is a .296/.358/.467 hitter in the minors and was added to the 40-man at the end of the season to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. A trade involving either player wouldn’t be as significant as a move involving their top trio, but it’s possible the Snakes find some interest in both.

The extended windows of club control for each of McCarthy, Varsho and Thomas could make them of interest to teams at varying levels of the competitive cycle. That’s highlighted in the wide array of clubs that have checked in with Arizona. Milwaukee, Houston, Toronto, the White Sox and the Yankees are all win-now teams known to be looking for ways to plug a gap in center and/or a corner outfield spot. Houston is known to be in search of a left-handed bat, in particular.

Miami is behind that quintet from a competitive perspective. Still, the Fish are hoping to improve their offense to take a step forward in 2023, likely by subtracting from their enviable rotation depth. The Marlins are without an obvious center fielder on their MLB roster at present, with players like Jesús Sánchez, Bryan De La Cruz and JJ Bleday stretched there defensively. Miami and the D-Backs have linked up on a swap of young players before with the Jazz Chisholm/Zac Gallen deal, although that was orchestrated by the previous Marlins front office.

Oakland and Cincinnati are firmly amidst rebuilds, making them somewhat surprising fits at first glance. Yet the opportunity to acquire a pre-arbitration key piece at least opens the door for teams that are more traditionally “sellers” to gauge the market. A’s GM David Forst told reporters this week that acquiring players at or near the majors is “at the top of our to-do list” (via Melissa Lockard of the Athletic). Reds GM Nick Krall similarly indicated at the GM Meetings the team was considering trade possibilities involving prospects or “lower cost, more controllable players in the big leagues” (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer).

There are a number of ways the discussions could go, but it seems clear Arizona would want MLB-ready talent in return. Hazen flatly rejected the notion of trading any of their outfielders solely for prospects last month, and Piecoro writes they could look for infield or catching help in discussions — with particular emphasis on adding some right-handed punch to the lineup.

Blue Jays Notes: Senga, Bassitt, Taillon, Reyes, Brantley, Gallo

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The Blue Jays are exploring several roster upgrades, with Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reporting that the club has interest in such players as Kodai Senga, Jameson Taillon, Alex Reyes, and Michael Brantley.  “There doesn’t appear to be traction…at the moment” between the Jays and Chris Bassitt, though the right-hander is another free agent hurler at least under consideration for the team.

Starting pitching is Toronto’s clearest need, and as one agent told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the Blue Jays are “all over the pitching market” right now.  To this end, it is fair to speculate that the Jays have at least checked in on basically every available arm, which has been the team’s strategy for the previous three offseasons.  Davidi adds that the Jays also “have some degree of interest” in Carlos Rodon, Nathan Eovaldi, and their own incumbent free agent in Ross Stripling.  Past reports have indicated that the Jays have extended an offer to Andrew Heaney, and they were interested in Kyle Gibson (before Gibson rejected Toronto’s one-year, $10MM offer to sign an identical deal with the Orioles), and even Justin Verlander, before Verlander joined the Mets.

Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman have solidified the front end of the Blue Jays’ rotation, but there is a lot of uncertainty afterwards, given how Jose Berrios and especially Yusei Kikuchi struggled in 2022.  There isn’t necessarily a guarantee that Kikuchi will even get a clear shot at a starting role, since he could at best be competing with Mitch White for the fifth starter’s job, or perhaps even be relegated to the bullpen if the Jays end up acquiring two new starters this winter.

As noted by both Nicholson-Smith and Davidi, the fact that the Jays were considering getting into Verlander’s market (even on a short-term deal) is another sign of how aggressive the team is willing to be, and perhaps a sign of how far they’ll stretch the payroll.  Bigger spending may be somewhat inevitable given the rising costs involved in the pitching market this offseason, though it might be a reach to see the Blue Jays spend what it will take to sign Rodon or perhaps even Senga, considering how the Japanese ace is drawing a lot of attention from multiple teams.  Speculatively, the Jays’ relative lack of interest in Bassitt could have to do with Bassitt’s desire for at least four guaranteed years, which may be a tall order for a pitcher heading into his age-34 season.

Reyes represents another kind of pitching addition, as the former top prospect is an intriguing bounce-back candidate who would fit on a lot of teams.  That said, Reyes also carries plenty of risk given his long injury history, including a shoulder surgery that kept him from pitching whatsoever in 2022.  It will be interesting to see how Reyes’ market materializes, as the Blue Jays and other teams will naturally be weighing the injury concerns, but the sheer amount of interest could still lead to a decent payday for the right-hander.

Beyond the pitching market, the Jays are also looking for left-handed hitting outfielders.  A gap in the outfield emerged after Toronto dealt Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners, and a lefty swinger could help add balance to a largely right-handed Blue Jays lineup.  Brantley is one possibility, and while he is a player the Jays reportedly came very close to signing in the 2020-21 offseason, health questions also surround Brantley’s market.  Shoulder problems that eventually required surgery limited Brantley to only 64 games last season, and he has missed a lot of time earlier in his career with other injury woes.

Such names as Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger have also been linked to the Jays’ outfield search this winter, and agent Scott Boras told Nicholson-Smith and Hazel Mae (Twitter link) that Toronto indeed had interest in both of his clients.  Boras also said the Blue Jays had interest in another client in Joey Gallo, another left-handed hitter.

Gallo is coming off a thoroughly rough 2022 season, hitting only .160/.280/.357 with 19 homers over 410 plate appearances with the Yankees and Dodgers.  Gallo’s “three true outcomes” style will always limit his offensive productivity to some extent, yet he is only entering his age-29 season, and Gallo’s strikeouts haven’t stopped him from posting some big offensive numbers in the past.  As recently as 2021, Gallo posted a 4.2 fWAR season, and his ability to play a decent center field would also be of interest to a Jays team that would ideally like to give George Springer more time in a corner outfield spot.

With Gallo, Bellinger, and probably Brantley all in line to receive one-year bounce-back types of contracts, the Jays could be planning to address the outfield with just a shorter-term addition, and then focus on a longer-term addition for the rotation.  The Blue Jays appear to be open to all possibilities, however, and their pursuit of free agents is also obviously impacted by what they might do on the trade market, especially with their catching depth being in high demand.

Orioles Agree To One-Year Deal With Kyle Gibson

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TODAY: Gibson signed for one year and $10MM, Orioles GM Mike Elias told reporters (including The Baltimore Sun’s Nathan Ruiz and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). The O’s continue to look for more veteran pitching, and “anyone who’s out there” on the market is a possibility.  This includes starters who have turned down qualifying offers.  In other Gibson news, the Blue Jays were also known to have interest in the right-hander, and The Athletic’s Dan Connolly reports that Gibson took Baltimore’s offer over an identical one-year, $10MM deal with Toronto.

DECEMBER 3: The Orioles have strengthened their rotation, with veteran starter Kyle Gibson agreeing to a one-year deal, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal is pending a physical.

It’d been widely reported that the Orioles were in the market for starting pitching additions, and Gibson gives them a solid back-of-the-rotation arm. They’ve been linked to a number of other starting pitchers this off-season, and it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if Gibson isn’t the only one joining the team this winter.

Gibson, 35, had a 5.05 ERA across 167 2/3 innings for the Phillies in 2022. Advanced metrics were a bit more favorable, and his FIP stood at 4.28. He did post the best walk rate of his career (6.7%), and while his strikeout numbers have never jumped off the page they were 1.5% better than his career rate of 18.6%.

Gibson was drafted by the Twins with the 22nd pick of the 2009 draft, and made his debut 2013. He struggled a bit initially, but soon settled in as a durable arm at the back of their rotation. He’d go on to make 188 starts across seven seasons for the Twins, peaking in 2018 when he made 32 starts for a 3.62 ERA, almost a full run below his average while in Minnesota.

After reaching free agency at the conclusion of the 2019 season, Gibson latched on with the Rangers on a three-year, $28MM deal. He struggled a bit in the pandemic-shortened season but straightened things out in 2021, pitching to a 2.87 ERA across 19 starts and turning himself into a valuable trade chip for the Rangers at the deadline that year.

Advanced metrics did have him ripe for regression that year, and he did drop off a bit after the Phillies acquired him, pitching to a 5.09 ERA the rest of the way in 2021.

His fastball sits in the low-90s, and he mixes that with a slider, curveball and changeup, as well as a cutter that’s been introduced in recent seasons. It’s the durability that Gibson is noted for though, and apart from his rookie year (and the pandemic season), he’s made at least 25 starts in the other eight full seasons.

He slots into a rotation that features Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells and Austin Voth – none of whom have ever reached 25 starts in a big league season. Top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez is also likely to feature in 2023, but as a rookie they’ll be keeping a close eye on his workload.

From here, it seems likely the Orioles will pursue another addition to the rotation as they look to supplement their young roster. The likes of Jameson Taillon, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker would all make sense for Baltimore, and while Gibson can certainly work as a valuable innings-eater, adding one of those names would give their rotation a bit more punch as they look to build off their promising 83-79 2022 season.

Blue Jays Have Made Offer To Andrew Heaney

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The Blue Jays are actively exploring the market for rotation help and have put forth an offer to left-hander Andrew Heaney, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Heaney, however, has received varying levels of interest from at least 10 teams and has fielded multiple offers at this point, per the report.

Robust interest in Heaney comes as little surprise. The lefty reportedly drew interest from upwards of a dozen teams last year when he was a rebound candidate seeking a one-year deal in free agency, and while shoulder troubles limited his workload with the Dodgers in 2022, his performance when on the field could scarcely have gone better. Armed with a lethal new slider, Heaney pitched to a 3.10 ERA in 72 2/3 innings.

That’s an impressive mark in and of itself, but Heaney’s secondary metrics were even better. He remained far too susceptible to home runs (1.73 HR/9), but Heaney punched out a ridiculous 35.5% of the batters he faced in 2022 and only allowed walks at a 6.1% clip. No pitcher in baseball last year (min. 70 innings) topped Heaney’s sky-high 16.8% swinging-strike rate, and the only two pitchers who induced chases on pitches off the plate more frequently than Heaney’s 39.5% were Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase and Toronto righty Kevin Gausman.

Heaney has had more than his fair share of injury troubles over the years, undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2016 before landing on the IL twice with elbow inflammation (2018, 2019) and then missing three months this past season due to shoulder troubles. On a per-inning basis, however, he arguably turned in the best performance of any free-agent starter outside the top tier of Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Carlos Rodon. The questions teams have to weigh are how much of his newfound Dodgers success is repeatable and just what they feel comfortable projecting for him, workload-wise, in 2023 and beyond.

This marks the second straight offseason in which the Jays have made an offer to Heaney, as Toronto was reportedly among the interested parties to put forth a one-year offer for him last offseason as well. However, while a one-year deal was sufficient for Heaney’s services last November, he appears quite likely to land a multi-year commitment this time around.

Starting pitching has been a priority for the Jays throughout the winter, with Toronto showing interest in starters of a wide array of quality. Nicholson-Smith writes within his Heaney column, for instance, that Toronto was in the mix for Kyle Gibson before he agreed to terms with the Orioles, and he further reports (via Twitter) that the Jays were willing to go multiple years at a high annual value for Verlander before he landed with the Mets earlier today.

As it stands, the Blue Jays have Gausman, Alek Manoah, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White as their primary options in the rotation. Manoah and Gausman turned in brilliant 2022 seasons and both received some recognition in Cy Young voting — Manoah finished third, Gausman ninth — but the other three struggled through dismal seasons. Berrios had been one of the game’s most consistent starters before stumbling to a 5.23 ERA in 2022. A pricey upside bet on Kikuchi’s blend of velocity and whiffs didn’t pay off (5.19 ERA), and White was tagged for a 7.74 ERA in 10 games after being acquired from the Dodgers prior to the trade deadline. Hyun Jin Ryu underwent Tommy John surgery early in the summer.

Meanwhile, right-hander Ross Stripling became a free agent on the heels of the finest season of his career. In 134 1/3 innings, Stripling posted a 3.01 ERA with a below-average 20.7% strikeout rate but an elite 3.7% walk rate. The Jays could always look to re-sign the 33-year-old, but he’s fielding interest from all 30 teams now and seems a good bet to eventually land a multi-year deal himself.

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