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Latest On Marcus Stroman

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The Dodgers, according to an interesting piece of scuttlebutt from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, are “considering” adding a starting pitcher via the trade market, and sources have indicated that Marcus Stroman is among their leading targets. According to this report, the team would transfer a current starter to the bullpen if they acquired someone of Stroman’s ilk, thereby circumventing the trade market’s lack of high-impact relief options.

However, the Dodgers may not be able to get their hands on the diminutive righty–at least not if the Astros have anything to say about the matter. According to a separate tweet from Rosenthal, the Astros are “mounting a push” for a Stroman acquisition. Their eagerness toward such a move is said to be motivated, in part, by a reluctance to meet New York’s asking price for Noah Syndergaard.

At this point, rehashing the relative merits of Stroman seems like a bit of a Sisyphean task: we know that the Toronto-grown pitcher is enjoying a nice 2019 season (3.52 FIP in 124.2 innings); we know, also, that he is rebounding from a somewhat fluky run of poor results in 2018 (5.54 ERA vs. 3.91 FIP in 102.1 innings last year); and, alas, we understand that he is earning an eminently affordable sum of $7.4MM this year, with a fourth and final year of arbitration control remaining in 2020.

What is more germane to the conversation here is the insight offered into the trade deadline strategy of two respectively powerful clubs. The Dodgers, an organization never unwilling to stockpile big league depth, would add Stroman to a largely effective mix of pitchers; on the year, their starters have logged a 4.02 ERA–good enough for ninth in the bigs in this homer-happy 2019. However, adding a durable arm like Stroman, as noted above, would allow them to circuitously improve their bullpen. Kenta Maeda, for one, was an interesting option out of the bullpen last year and could shift there once more; alternatively, the Dodgers could choose to simply rest the powerful-yet-young right arm of one Walker Buehler in a gear-up for the postseason. Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Stroman, and Ross Stripling would certainly make for an extremely intimidating playoff staff.

The Astros, meanwhile, have been involved in rotation-centric trade rumors for quite some time, despite their staff’s fourth-ranked 3.79 collective ERA. This news, as much as anything, gives further credence to the idea that New York is mounting sky-high demands for Syndergaard, and that teams like Houston may begin shifting attention to Stroman as a more cost-friendly alternative. Adding Stroman would obviously be a coup for any postseason-seeking squad, and one has to wonder if the Astros’ strong interest isn’t spurred partly by an interest in 2020. With Gerrit Cole looming on the precipice of free agency, the club may be looking to shore up its potential for this year and beyond.

Cubs Showing Interest In Craig Kimbrel

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All winter long and into the season, through the unavailability (for one reason or another) of backend bullpen notables Brandon Morrow, Pedro Strop and Carl Edwards Jr., messaging out of Chicago’s front office has been as consistent as the bullpen has been fickle: the Cubs have no money to spend. Yet, the Northsiders are suddenly showing interest in Craig Kimbrel, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

The Cubs financial story remains the same with one new wrinkle: an unfortunate family situation has left utility maven Ben Zobrist on the restricted list since May 8th. If his divorce continues to keep him out of action – which seems likelier than not at this point – the Cubs could recoup a good portion of his salary (in the neighborhood of $9MM), at least as far as the luxury tax is concerned. This new math could give the Cubs just enough room to make a viable run at Kimbrel. Roster resource pegs Chicago’s luxury tax number at around $223MM, whereas Spotrac puts the Cubs at around $200MM. The latter number puts the Cubs a little more than $5MM shy of paying the luxury tax, but Rosenthal suggests the Cubs aren’t as concerned about the tax in general as they are the $246MM line that incurs the harshest penalties. Whether current spending has them just under the first threshold ($206MM) or the second threshold ($226MM), either valuation of their current payroll ought to leave enough room to make a competitive offer to Kimbrel while staying under (at least) the final tax line. There are, of course, other potential suitors courting Kimbrel.

And yet, even if they can make the math work, the months of consistent messaging casts some doubt onto a Cubs’ pursuit of Kimbrel. What we know for certain is that Theo Epstein and company are not shy about doing due diligence, and if history holds, they’ll make at least one notable move before the trade deadline. Epstein has been active on the trade market throughout his Chicago tenure, making at least one deadline acquisition each season dating back to 2015: Dan Haren (2015), Aroldis Chapman & Mike Montgomery (2016), Jose Quintana, Alex Avila & Justin Wilson (2017), Cole Hamels, Brandon Kintzler & Jesse Chavez (2018). There aren’t many misses in this group either, as most of these acquisitions have found ways to contribute (nor are there many position players).

This year, of course, they won’t have the August 31 deadline to take advantage of as they have in every season since emerging as surprise contenders in 2015: Austin Jackson & Fernando Rodney (2015), Joe Smith (2016), Leonys Martin (2017) and Daniel Murphy (2018). In a condensed trading period, the Cubs may prove more aggressive in pursuing a backend talent like Kimbrel.

Still, this could be the year the Cubs don’t make an impact move. They’re not wholly unprepared to go to battle with the arms in-house, per The Atheltic’s Sahadev Sharma, who spotlights Dillon Maples, Rowan Wick, and Adbert Alzolay as three depth arms who could make a difference this summer.

Maples has a ton of swing-and-miss in his arsenal, but he also doesn’t have a clue how to harness it, as evidenced in his small sample with the big league club this year. Through six appearances, he’s amassed 4 2/3 innings with eight walks and ten strikeouts. A less-than-five-inning sample hardly packs enough punch to make a statement, but still, 15.4 BB/9 and 19.3 K/9 are jarring numbers to see, especially once you notice they aren’t that far off the norm for Maples. In parts of three seasons at Triple-A, Maples owns a 2.93 ERA with 8.0 BB/9 and 16.4 K/9.

Alzolay, meanwhile, has long been a promising arm for Chicago, but he has yet to make his major league debut, while Wick came to the Cubs from the Padres for Jason Vosler this past winter. Wick was recently recalled after posting strong numbers in Iowa (4.14 K/BB). The Cubs should have high aspirations come October, and betting on this trio of arms to outlast a deep division and long playoff run would be a gamble. So while they may be inclined to use the month of June to evaluate the arms in-house, a decision on Kimbrel will have to be made much much sooner.

NL Notes: Giants, Mets, Reds

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Speaking alongside President and CEO Larry Baer, Farhan Zaidi rationalizes the Giants’ winter action thus far, saying “Our goal this offseason has been to surround our core of players, which we still believe is a championship core of players, with the right complementary players.” Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle provides the clip (via Twitter), wherein Zaidi charms a crowd with good-natured humor, referring to his title as “the guy who reports to [Baer],” while also holding firm to an offseason strategy that has preached patience above all else. To hear him refer to the roster as having a “championship core” feels a tad hopeful, though to his credit, Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt, did quite literally form the core of two World Series winners – three for Posey, Bumgarner and Pablo Sandoval, who were all on the 2010 squad. So while Zaidi’s not wrong, one might also point out they also have the core of an 84-win team, an 87-win team, a 64-win team, and a 73-win team. Let’s check in on the goings-on from a couple other NL clubs…

  • While the Mets continue to keep tabs on lefty Gio Gonzalez, their interest has not reached the “multiyear level,” per sny.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter). The Mets are emboldened by a strong second half from Jason Vargas, who combines with Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler to form the presumptive starting five for the Amazins. Given the injury history of that group, starting depth is an important consideration for GM Brodie Van Wagenen, but Gonzalez should land a clearer path to a guaranteed rotation role elsewhere. If Gio’s market never does materialize, the Mets could circle back, but for the time being they appear content with the likes of Walker Lockett, Corey Oswalt and Hector Santiago providing the rotation depth. Martino notes that Seth Lugo, who started 31 games for the Mets across the past three seasons, will not be considered for the rotation, as they plan on deploying him solely as a reliever in 2019. Lugo, 29, impressed in a swing role last year as his strikeout rate saw a year-over-year increase from 7.5 K/9 to 9.1 K/9.
  • The Reds have been active on the trade market all winter, especially in hunting starting pitching. They were one of the teams with early noted interest in Corey Kluber before swinging separate deals for Alex Wood, Tanner Roark, and Sonny Gray. They have also kept tabs on J.T. Realmuto, still one of the teams in the running for the Marlins’ star backstop. One name that both the Indians and Marlins have asked about is Jonathan India, the Reds top draft choice from a year ago. Per Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel (via Twitter), top prospects Nick Senzel, Hunter Greene, and Taylor Trammell are viewed as tough gets, leading teams to ask for India instead, but Cincinnati has as of yet refrained from including India in any kind of deal. It certainly makes sense for the Reds to hold onto India in the event that Scooter Gennett departs in free agency after 2019, but they’ll have a tough time getting a talent of Kluber’s or Realmuto’s caliber without surrendering any of the four aforementioned youngsters.

Quick Hits: Olney’s Latest, Free Agent Market, Diamondbacks

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It’s been another slow winter for baseball’s veteran free agents, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney. Only six free agents have secured deals with more than two years fully guaranteed, none of whom have been over the age of 32, and there are over 200 unsigned free agents still seeking employment for the 2019 season. ESPN obtained a memo written by player agent Jeff Berry outlining some ideas on how to improve the troubling conditions that have developed in this labor market. Berry writes, “As advocates, our job is to fight for and protect player rights, and when necessary, try and help create solutions — not pointing fingers of blame and hoping things get better. And I wholeheartedly believe there are viable solutions to the core labor issues facing the game that can be remedied to the benefit of players, clubs and fans.” Take a look at the top remaining free agents available here, or track the market as a whole with MLBTR’s free agent tracker. For now, let’s take a look at a few of the specifics covered in Olney’s article, as well as some news from around the (slow-moving) winter market…

  • Refining or reforming current practices regarding service time manipulation and player arbitration are two of the most-often disputed topics, per Olney, but there are other issues at hand as well, including how some people within the industry are unhappy about the way teams use the disabled list. This issue also encompasses the promotion/demotion process termed “portfolio management,” or the process wherein teams shuffle their rosters for particular series matchups throughout the season. While these in-season roster moves make sense from a strategic baseball standpoint, players lose money as a result, often to no fault of their own. For instance, a reliever whose option has already been used in a season might be vulnerable to demotion if unavailable due to overuse (say, if he pitched in three consecutive days). Even if said player is brought back to the big leagues after a couple of days, he still loses a significant amount of major league pay during that span. Thus, such a player loses money – not despite performing effectively – but because he performed effectively. Obviously, given the complexity of even the single above circumstance, there is no shortage of issues for the players’ union to focus their attentions in advance of December 1, 2021 – the date the current CBA expires. 
  • Turning to rumblings about player movement, it’s unlikely the Arizona Diamondbacks bring A.J. Pollock back to the desert even if his free agency drags on longer than expected. Given the flexibility of their roster, however, the Dbacks have options to replace him, writes the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan. The in-house alternatives may not be enough to call off the rebuild, but the number of roster iterations available gives GM Mike Hazen the time to make judicious decisions on the trade market. For example, Ketel Marte could move to center, with his spot at the keystone, then, filled by one of the attainable free agent second baseman on the market (DJ LeMahieu, Brian Dozier, Josh Harrison, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie). Alternatively, Eduardo Escobar could fill Marte’s spot at second should the Diamondbacks acquire a new third baseman (Jake Lamb would be expected to handle first, as is probably the case regardless). Given the absolute dearth of starting options available in free agency, if Marte stays at second, a center field replacement would likely come via trade. The Diamondbacks are unlikely to surrender much in the way of prospects at this stage of their rebuild, which makes finding a trade partner tricky, though not impossible. Their best bet might be to target a young veteran who may still have some upside. Specifically, Michael A. Taylor of the Nationals would be an intriguing player to see given 500 at bats, as might Keon Broxton of the Brewers. 

Payroll Notes: Astros, Indians, Cubs

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The Astros began last season with a team-record $182MM payroll, the fifth-highest mark in the league, but after falling short of their bid to repeat as World Series champs, there’s a possibility that payroll could rise even higher by the start of 2019, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. They won’t extend beyond the luxury tax mark, but Owner Jim Crane is giving the green light to inch closer to the $206MM tax line should the right deals come along via trades or free agency. The Astros long-term financial ledger is fairly clear with only Jose Altuve signed beyond 2020, and yet, by this time next winter, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock will be free agents, George Springer and Lance McCullers Jr. will be in their final year of arbitration, and young studs Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman should earn significant pay hikes in their second and first seasons of arb eligibility, respectively. Still, Houston appears staunch in their unwillingness to deal top prospect Forrest Whitley, and the offseason additions made thus far have been measured – infielder Aledmys Diaz is pre-arb and catcher Robinson Chirinos signed for one-year, $5.75MM. Expect GM Jeff Luhnow to continue to spend judiciously, as there does not appear to be a knee-jerk spending spree on the horizon, though the possibility for increased spending is there. Now, some other payroll notes from the 2016 pennant winners…

  • Rumors have not stopped swirling around the Cleveland Indians since the offseason began, but as evidenced by Carlos Carrasco’s journey from the trade block to signing a below-market extension, anything remains possible in Cleveland. In fact, there’s no set number for the team’s 2019 payroll, per Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal, as the team’s focus remains fixed on finding a balance between staying competitive with the American League’s upper echelon and maintaining a sustainable talent base beyond 2020. Cleveland’s payroll has risen to historic (for them) levels during this current competitive stretch, and there remains the mandate to shed payroll for 2019, but the priority, by far, is to add controllable assets for the future. While getting younger is an obvious side effect of increased controllability, youth is in-and-of-itself not the goal for ownership. Where the payroll for 2019 ends up is a flexible line, so long as the goal of adding controllable assets is achieved. This falls in line with current thinking that the Indians are less likely to attach one of their bulkier short-term contracts to Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, as either pitcher on their own will net a far more controllable collection of assets. With movement on the free agent and trade markets relatively slow league-wide, the Indians have the prerogative of patience at the moment, but as major signings start to trickle in, it will be interested to track the level of urgency in Cleveland regarding these trade talks. That said, pitchers like Kluber and Bauer will never cease to attract interested trade partners, but the window for moving a package like the rumored Edwin Encarnacion/Yandy Diaz deal may have a smaller, or at least, shifting window of availability.
  • The Cubs continue to target late-inning bullpen additions, a backup catcher and potentially a middle infielder, writes Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Any trades involving current players, such as Ben Zobrist, who is in the last year of his deal, or noted trade target Kyle Schwarber would have to improve the Cubs from an on-field standpoint, as despite their fiscal restraints, they do not appear motivated to move someone like Zobrist simply for the salary relief.
  • That said, the Cubs have a fairly specific wish list this winter after the departures of David Ross (after 2016) and Jon Jay (after 2017) led to a perceived leadership void in the Cubs clubhouse, per ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. One solution may be to have Ross himself, still employed as a special assistant, spend more time around the team this season, but the Cubs front office remains on the lookout for a vocal veteran who can bring some accountability to the Chicago locker room. GM Jed Hoyer dubbed their lack of leadership in 2018 as a “miscalculation,” as they assumed certain issues would resolve themselves because so much of the Chicago core had been together for so long. It’s an interesting area of need for the Cubs considering they have no shortage of veterans who, to the outside eye, might step into that leadership void. Presumably, veterans like Jon Lester, Anthony Rizzo, Cole Hamels, Jason Heyward, Pedro Strop and Zobrist provide varying degrees of leadership, and the more youthful Javier Baez and Willson Contreras also seem capable of galvanizing the team at times, but the ability to take someone to task is indeed a rare trait, it seems, and one that Hoyer suggests is more likely to come from a reserve than a marquee player. 

AL Notes: Royals, Astros, Bauer

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In light of yesterday’s Yan Gomes trade, those teams still in need of a backstop for 2019 will be surveying the market with renewed urgency. One guy not likely to be on the move is Salvador Perez. The story has not changed for Salvy and the Royals, whose price for Perez is “so exorbitant no team would meet it,” per the Athletic’s Rustin Dodd (subscription link). While teams around the league would certainly check in on Perez were he to become available, it is unlikely anyone values him as highly as the Royals. The 28-year-old catcher is owed $36MM through 2021 and hasn’t had an OBP over .300 since 2013. His power output has remained consistent, however, and his merits extend behind the field of play, as he is a key presence both for players and for fans, as a leader in the clubhouse and as the one of the last core position players from back-to-back American League pennants. More from the Royals and the rest of the American League…

  • As for other Royals targets, Whit Merrifield is a slightly more achievable trade target, but given his four years of team control, the Royals are unlikely to part with their second baseman either. Lefty Danny Duffy can likely be had, but given his down year (4.88 ERA, 4.1 BB/9) and the over $45MM still on his deal, the Royals are better off keeping him and letting him restore some value in 2019. A quiet offseason looms for the Royals and GM Dayton Moore, who has said previously he expects Kansas City will be better-positioned to be aggressive in the market by 2021.
  • The Astros tendered contracts to ten players before yesterday’s deadline, most of whom were fairly safe bets to return to Houston. Outfielder Jake Marisnick was one on-the-bubble candidate, but he returns for a third season of arbitration eligibility in Houston. Marisnick has struggled at the dish, carrying a career .226/.278/.374 line into 2019, but he is an elite defensive center fielder, a valuable asset for the Astros, who never seem wholly comfortable leaving George Springer full-time in center. Marisnick does have one option remaining*, so Houston can send him down to Triple A without exposing him to waivers. The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan (subscription link) also notes that fellow benchmates Tyler White and Tony Kemp are without options, limiting flexibility for GM Jeff Luhnow. None of the three would net much of a return on the trade market on their own, though all three are cheap and useful enough to be included as a complimentary piece to a larger deal. The Astros do have options in the minor leagues should they deal Marisnick, most notably Myles Straw, who could replace Marisnick as the speed and defense option in center off the bench.
  • Both Kaplan and Fancred’s Jon Heyman suggest the Astros are looking for a primary catching option to top the depth chart ahead of Max Stassi. The Marlins J.T. Realmuto is the dream get, but Houston has thus-far refused to surrender star pitching prospect Forrest Whitley. Heyman notes that they may be willing to part with outfielder Kyle Tucker, a likely must-have for Miami in any package for Realmuto.
  • Heyman also notes that in Cleveland, though most of the trade noise has focused on Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer is actually the most likely of the three to be shipped out. This makes sense with the recent rumblings of extension talks with Carrasco, though there’s nothing close as of yet regarding Bauer. The Indians would love to keep him, but of the three, Bauer’s arbitration eligibility makes him more fiscally volatile than either of Carrasco or Kluber, who are under multi-year contracts. The perfect trade package for the Indians would probably include controllable pieces to augment what they already have in either the outfield or the bullpen, two areas in need of securing this offseason.

*Original post incorrectly listed Marisnick as having no options remaining (in referencing the Kaplan piece), but he does in fact have one option year left.

Heyman’s Latest: Royals, Lynn, Gray, Rockies, Brewers

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In his Inside Baseball column today, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag takes a look at some of the most important remaining trade deadline scenarios. He also runs down some news and notes from both the American League and National League. Among the highlights with relevance to the trade market:

  • The Royals remain on the hunt for rotation help even after netting Trevor Cahill, Heyman writes. (That much may be evidenced by their apparent talks for Francisco Liriano, which are reportedly progressing.) Heyman notes that Kansas City even called the Athletics on Sonny Gray and the Rangers on Yu Darvish, though the team was realistic about the fact that it doesn’t have much of a chance of outbidding the competition for either player.
  • If the Cardinals ultimately make Lance Lynn available, the Yankees would have interest in the right-hander, though Sonny Gray remains New York’s top target. Lynn is a free agent at season’s end, and as such wouldn’t help fill any of the upcoming voids in the Yankees’ rotation after the 2017 season.
  • The Braves have scouted Gray more than any team in the league, per Heyman, though they’re not currently believed to be the favorite to land him. Heyman notes that the money saved in the Jaime Garcia deal could help facilitate the acquisition of Gray, which is a suggestion that has been made in recent days. It seems worth bearing in mind, though, that Gray is only earning $3.575MM in 2017. Plus, any financial crunch the Braves had would only have been present due to the fact that the team acquired Garcia (and Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey) as stopgaps in the first place.
  • Starting pitching remains a target area for the Rockies after picking up Pat Neshek in a trade, and Colorado even considered Darvish as an option, though the Rockies are unsurprisingly on Darvish’s no-trade list. (That’s not a knock on the Rockies by any means, but I’d imagine that most pitchers, if given the opportunity, would want to safeguard themselves from being traded to pitch at Coors Field.)
  • Brewers owner Mark Attanasio is more willing to part with top prospects in order to land Sonny Gray than his front office is, according to Heyman. General manager David Stearns and his staff are reluctant to part with the club’s very top prospects, and Attanasio has been deferring to the preferences of his baseball operations staff. The Athletics are eyeing center field prospect Lewis Brinson, Heyman continues, but it seems that the Brewers’ front office isn’t keen on parting with that level of talent.
  • It’s been reported that the Mets are likely to hang onto lefty Jerry Blevins, and Heyman notes that GM Sandy Alderson’s rationale is that if he traded Blevins, he’d merely be looking to fill that void with a free agent in a market where most relievers will enter the offseason seeking three-year deals. (Of course, that logic could also be used to argue that Blevins’ value is all the higher, and the Mets managed to pick up Blevins on a one-year guarantee even though he reportedly sought three years himself early last offseason. Boone Logan, who also signed a one-year deal in Cleveland, was also reportedly seeking three at one point.)

D’backs Willing To Trade Relievers, But Not Starters

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Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart is willing to deal relievers Daniel Hudson and Tyler Clippard, but not starters Patrick Corbin and Robbie Ray, Nick Piecoro and Sarah McLellan of the Arizona Republic write. (Stewart had previously told Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball he wasn’t interested in dealing Corbin.) The Diamondbacks have already traded Brad Ziegler and appear amenable to continuing to trade from their bullpen, but it looks like their starters are off limits.

“We’ve gotten calls, and you have to call to ask, but I don’t really have an ear to listen,” says Stewart, speaking of Corbin and Ray. “If you want to talk about Hudson or Clippard, I’ll listen. That’s pretty much how it is.”

Stewart also says that, at this point, he’s unlikely to complete an extension for Hudson before the deadline, putting pressure on the Diamondbacks to deal him while they can. (Last month, Stewart named Hudson and Ziegler as potential extension candidates.)

“Once we get past that deadline, there’s uncertainty for the organization to be able to sign these guys,” says Stewart. “I don’t think I can put the organization in a position to not get some value back for Huddy.”

Stewart’s willingness to deal Hudson and Clippard but not Corbin or Ray makes sense, given the free agency timelines of the players involved. The Diamondbacks’ 2016 season appears to be mostly lost, with the team posting a 38-53 record so far, but Corbin and Ray could easily be significant contributors in future seasons. Corbin can’t become a free agent until after 2018, while Ray isn’t eligible until after 2020.

Hudson, meanwhile, is eligible for free agency this coming winter, while Clippard can become a free agent after 2017.  Hudson has had a modestly productive season at best (4.91 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 in 33 innings) and might not fetch much on the trade market. Clippard has been better, with a 2.97 ERA, 3.0 BB/9 and strong strikeout numbers (11.1 K/9) that help compensate for his usual fly-ball tendencies. Given his long track record of productivity and experience closing, he ought to be able to net the Diamondbacks a nice return.

Trade Market For Starting Pitchers

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Over the coming days, we’re going to be running down the potential summer trade candidates at each position. First up: starting pitching, where it’s a true seller’s market.

The old adage that you can never have enough pitching remains as true today as ever. Just ask the Mets, who entered the year with a borderline-unfair collection of rotation talent but now appear to be in need of a fill-in piece. And New York is far from the neediest buyer. I’d list ’em all, but it’s easier just to note that only a few viable contenders — the Indians and Nationals being the obvious examples — have no real cause to look at starters.

That’s not to say that the entire remaining slate of postseason hopefuls will be chasing arms as a top priority, but there’s loads of demand. Some organizations are likely to be looking more at sturdy veterans to shore up the staff, with the Royals, Orioles, and Blue Jays among the teams that could fit that profile. Others — the Marlins, Rangers, and Red Sox come to mind — could be willing to give up a bigger return to add a quality, controllable pitcher.

Here are the trade candidates that teams like those could consider pursuing:

Top Rentals

Rich Hill (Athletics), Jeremy Hellickson (Phillies), Andrew Cashner (Padres), Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies), Jhoulys Chacin & Tim Lincecum (Angels), Jered Weaver (Angels)

  • In a very thin rental class, Hill clearly stands out as the highest-performing arm. It still feels funny to be talking about him this way, given that he’s 36 and lacks a real track record, but Hill has now compiled a 2.06 ERA over his last 105 innings with 10.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. Teams will likely value Hill as a frontline starter, at least as a three-month asset.
  • That assessment is informed by the fact that the rest of the market is so barren. Hellickson is surely next in line, and he looks to be a useful arm. But most contenders would be adding him as a solid piece to help win some games down the stretch, not because he’d upgrade their post-season rotation. Still, he’s a useful pitcher and carries a sub-4.00 ERA into the All-Star break.
  • Cashner has the pedigree and the stuff to rate as a top target, but he’s still producing middling results — a 4.60 ERA and 7.6 K/9 vs. 3.4 BB/9 since the start of 2015. The right club might still bite at a chance to try harnessing his talent.
  • The rest of the bunch would have been much more interesting three or four years ago. As things stand, the best that can be said is that they’re all still pitching in major league rotations. It’s hard to consider any more than gap-fillers, though De La Rosa has shown signs of late of returning to his typical form.

Controllable Arms

Jake Odorizzi, Matt Moore, Drew Smyly & Chris Archer (Rays), Drew Pomeranz (Padres), Julio Teheran (Braves), Sonny Gray (Athletics), Anthony DeSclafani (Reds), Matt Shoemaker, Hector Santiago & Nick Tropeano (Angels), Patrick Corbin & Robbie Ray (Diamondbacks), Jimmy Nelson (Brewers), Tyler Chatwood (Rockies), Nathan Eovaldi & Michael Pineda (Yankees)

  • As moribund as the rental market is, that only increases the intrigue surrounding the many controllable pitchers who play for non-contending clubs. Valuing these arms, and guessing which are likeliest to be dealt, is awfully complicated. We’ll largely just have to wait and see which sellers are most motivated and which pitchers are most valued by the market.
  • Tampa Bay still appears in the most obvious position to deal a controllable starter. The Rays would be selling low on Moore, Smyly, and Archer, but perhaps another organization will look past their struggles in the results department and make a fair offer. Odorizzi, though, might be the likeliest to be shipped out; he owns a 3.91 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over his four years with the Rays, and is set to enter arbitration next year.
  • If you’re looking for a single arm on this list that’s most likely to change hands, it may be Pomeranz. There’s an argument to be made that San Diego ought to keep the breakout southpaw for itself, but if another organization is willing to treat him like the 2.47 ERA pitcher he’s been over 102 innings thus far, the time may be right to strike a deal.
  • Teheran and Gray have long been discussed as possible trade pieces, with their affordable and lengthy contract situations serving to burnish their trade value. The former has been excellent, while the latter has had a rough go thus far. Regardless, we’re not seeing clear signals that either is truly available, and it’d take a truly significant offer to produce any movement.
  • Similar things could be said about the remaining pitchers from this group. To take a few examples, teams will need to bring big offers to motivate the Brewers to deal away their ample control over Nelson, convince the Reds to part with DeSclafani, or get the pitching-needy Halos to cash in Shoemaker in the midst of an interesting season. All of the players listed are plausible trade pieces in the right scenario; while none seem particularly likely to move on their own, it seems fair to expect one or two of the group to end up in a swap.

Big Contracts

Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks), Ervin Santana & Ricky Nolasco (Twins), Jon Niese (Pirates), Matt Garza (Brewers), CC Sabathia (Yankees)

  • There have been whispers about the idea of a contender chasing Greinke, who is pitching as well as should have been expected — which is to say, not well enough to continue last year’s ridiculous pace and probably not quite to the value of his monster contract. But we’ve yet to hear any strong connection of his name to the real-world market.
  • That’s not the case with regard to Santana, who has reportedly been scouted quite closely. Teams looking for a durable, back-of-the-rotation type of arm will strongly consider him, assuming the cash can be sorted out.
  • Nolasco, Niese, and Garza have all coughed up over five earned per nine on the year, but each has some potential appeal. The younger Niese could be the most desirable of this bunch, as he is controllable by a club option, though Nolasco is carrying an appealing K/BB ratio.
  • A resurgent Sabathia would be a pretty interesting guy to watch were it not for the fact that he’s headed toward the vesting of a whopping $25MM option for 2017.

Back-of-the-Rotation/Swingmen/Minor-League Depth

Ivan Nova (Yankees), Dan Straily (Reds), Tommy Milone (Twins), Jesse Hahn & Nick Tepesch (Athletics), Lucas Harrell (Braves), Wily Peralta (Brewers), Jordan Lyles (Rockies), Brad Hand (Padres)

  • There are a variety of possibilities here, ranging from fifth starter candidates (Nova, Straily, Milone) to bounceback types (Hahn, Peralta, Lyles) who are not currently working in a big league rotation. Harrell has had two nice starts for Atlanta, though he’s go a way to go to proving he’s worth surrendering real value. Hand has been a new man since moving to a full-time relief role this year.

Crasnick On Price, Greinke, Heyward, Upton, Murphy, Starlin

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ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick conducted his annual Hot Stove survey, polling a number of front-office executives and scouts about some of the top names available both in free agency and on the trade market. Crasnick asked respondents to weigh in on David Price vs. Zack Greinke; Jason Heyward vs. Justin Upton; Chris Davis vs. Yoenis Cespedes; which of Colby Rasmus or Daniel Murphy would be able to sustain some of his postseason success; which of Jeff Samardzija or Ian Desmond is a better rebound candidate; which of Javier Baez or Starlin Castro is more likely to be traded; and which of Alex Gordon, Ben Zobrist or Johnny Cueto is likeliest to return to the Royals. Crasnick has full voting and plenty of quotes from execs/scouts for those who wish to read the piece in its entirety, but here are some particularly interesting highlights…

  • More respondents felt comfortable giving a nine-figure deal to Greinke than to Price, though the expectation is still that Price’s deal will top Greinke’s due to age. Crasnick quotes a pair of scouts that rave about Greinke’s delivery and how he can age well due to his intelligence and lack of reliance on pure velocity. One NL scout likened Greinke to Greg Maddux.
  • Heyward won the voting over Upton when asked which would perform better over the life of his next contract, though there was a reasonably even split, and many scouts quoted by Crasnick are concerned with Heyward’s reliance on defensive value and what one described to be a high-maintenance swing.
  • Murphy won the voting over Rasmus in their question, and one American League special assistant offered an interesting take to Crasnick: “If I was a team and I had a market for Murphy, I’d want him playing third base. I don’t like him at second. The ball finds him, like it did in the World Series. He got exposed there.” Murphy does have experience at third base, and we’ve mentioned him as a possible option for teams in need of help at the hot corner here at MLBTR, as the free-agent market presents little beyond Murphy and David Freese.
  • More respondents felt that Castro is likelier to be traded than Baez, even though as one scout put it, Baez would “fetch more of a haul.” An AL GM offered an interesting take on Castro’s contract, however, telling Crasnick: “Castro showed enough at two positions this year that his contract will seem like a fair deal once the free-agent class this year gets paid.” Castro, who is owed about $38MM over the next four seasons, certainly isn’t cheap and isn’t without his risks. He was a replacement-level player in 2013 and played that way for much of the 2015 season before his bat came to life late in the season following a switch to second base. Of course, Castro also sported an unsustainable .388 BABIP in September and October, which somewhat inflated his production.
  • Cespedes and Samardzija narrowly won the voting on their respective question, while Gordon was far and away the most popular answer in the Royals realm.
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