Transactions

Nov. 18: Martinez has now formally accepted the QO, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He adds an update to a prior report, adding that talks on a multi-year deal are not expected to continue.

Nov. 17: Veteran right-hander Nick Martinez is planning to accept the qualifying offer from the Reds, according to a report from Francys Romero. Martinez will remain with Cincinnati for the 2025 season on a one-year, $21.05MM deal.

Martinez, 34, was a somewhat surprising recipient of the QO after a strong inaugural season with the Reds. The right-hander joined the club on a two-year, $26MM guarantee last winter after both he and the Padres opted out of their simultaneous options for the 2024 campaign, making him a free agent. The deal with Cincinnati proved to be something of a coup for the Reds, as Martinez turned in an excellent 3.10 ERA and 3.21 FIP over 142 1/3 innings of work in a season that saw him split his time between the starting rotation and the bullpen.

While the righty posted utterly dominant numbers in relief, sporting a 1.86 ERA in 53 1/3 frames out of the bullpen, his 3.84 ERA across 16 starts saw him flash the ability to be a quality rotation piece. A closer look at Martinez’s work this season reveals that he struggled badly out of the rotation early in the year, with a 5.46 ERA through the end of April. He ended the year on a dominant note after returning to the rotation in early August, however, with a 2.42 ERA in 63 1/3 innings across 11 starts down the stretch. That excellent late-season performance could inspire more confidence in Martinez’s abilities as a rotation piece looking ahead to 2025, although it’s worth noting that his strikeout rate (22.5% vs 19.1%) and groundball rate (42.8% vs 33.7%) were both better out of the bullpen than the rotation this year.

Of course, part of Martinez’s value since returning to MLB following a four-year sojourn to Japan (where he posted a 3.02 ERA in 378 1/3 NPB innings) is his ability to shift from the rotation to the bullpen based on the needs of his team. The right-hander has worked as a swingman in each of the last three seasons, logging 184 innings across 35 starts in the rotation and and 175 innings over 117 relief outings. On the heels of a season that saw Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott all miss time due to injury, it’s easy to imagine the Reds placing additional value on Martinez’s flexibility as they attempt to map out a plan for their young rotation arms. That’s especially valuable given the presence of top prospect Rhett Lowder, who looked dominant in a late-season call-up but may not be ready to jump straight into a wire-to-wire big league season in 2025.

That combination of production and versatility convinced the Reds to extend Martinez the QO, even though $21.05MM constitutes a raise of more than $7MM over his 2024 salary. The sides reportedly discussed a multi-year extension in the days leading up to the QO deadline earlier this month, but did not ultimately come together on a deal. Given Martinez’s age, it’s likely that his earning power on the open market would be tamped down in any multi-year pact. That reality surely made accepting the QO an attractive option for Martinez, and that’s exactly what MLBTR predicted he would do in our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list.

While adding Martinez to the club’s pitching staff for 2025 is sure to improve the team, that hefty raise might cause some complications for the club’s budget. RosterResource estimates the club’s current payroll for 2025 to be just under $81MM. While the Reds are committed to a payroll “at or above” their 2024 level, the club spent just $100MM on payroll last year and the addition of Martinez’s $21.05MM salary would push the Reds to $102MM, just over that mark. Potential non-tender candidates like Santiago Espinal and Jake Fraley could help the club save a few million dollars here and there, but it seems as though Cincinnati will need to exceed their 2024 payroll by a notable amount in order to make further additions this winter.

As for the free agent market overall, this winter’s market remains deep in interesting mid-to-back of the rotation options even with Martinez off the board. Yusei Kikuchi, Nathan Eovaldi, and Nick Pivetta are among the mid-rotation arms expected to pursue multi-year deals in free agency this winter, while bounce-back candidates like Walker Buehler and Max Scherzer could provide significant upside as they look to re-establish themselves on one-year, high-AAV deals similar to Martinez’s.