Rockies To Sign Thairo Estrada
The Rockies have agreed to a one-year, $3.25MM contract with Thairo Estrada, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deal comes with a mutual option for 2026 or a $750K buyout. However, if either side declines the mutual option, the Rockies will still have the opportunity to retain Estrada via arbitration for one more year due to his Super Two status.
Estrada, 29 in February, began his career with the Yankees but broke out after a trade to the Giants in 2021. He carved out a role for himself in San Francisco with a league-average bat, above-average speed, valuable defensive versatility, and a plus glove at second base. Over 312 games from 2021-23, he slashed .266/.320/.416 with a 105 wRC+, 45 stolen bases, and 7.4 FanGraphs WAR.
Unfortunately, the 2024 season was rough for Estrada. He spent two separate stints on the injured list with a sprained wrist, and while he only missed a handful of weeks, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area notes that he was playing through injury throughout the season. It certainly showed in his numbers. Estrada still came up with 9 Outs Above Average at second base, but his offensive production was dreadful. Over 96 games, he slashed .217/.247/.343 with a 64 wRC+. Eventually, the Giants were no longer willing to keep him on the roster, sending him outright to Triple-A at the end of August. He elected free agency after the season.
Thomas Harding of MLB.com linked Estrada to Colorado last week, noting that the club was looking for a new second baseman. The Rockies are set with Ezequiel Tovar at shortstop and Ryan McMahon at third base, but they had a gap on the right side of the infield after non-tendering Brendan Rodgers earlier in the offseason. While they signed Kyle Farmer to a one-year, $3.25MM guarantee in November, Farmer is older and lacks Estrada’s upside. He’s better suited to a utility role, which is the role he’s played for most of his career.
Estrada also drew interest from the Yankees this offseason. Yet, in Colorado, he will get everyday playing time as he looks to rebuild his value. Eventually, he could have competition from top infield prospect Adael Amador, but Amador won’t turn 22 until April, and his aggressive call-up in 2024 proved he wasn’t ready for the majors. Indeed, he has yet to play a single game at Triple-A. If Amador continues to progress and Estrada bounces back, Estrada could become a valuable trade chip for the Rockies next winter.
Hanwha Eagles Sign Estevan Florial
Outfielder Estevan Florial has agreed to a contract with the KBO’s Hanwha Eagles, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He had been outrighted by the Guardians earlier this summer and elected free agency at the end of the season.
Florial signed with the Yankees as an international free agent in 2015. He quickly began turning heads in the organization with his strong performance in the low minors. Entering the 2019 season, MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and FanGraphs all ranked him as the number one prospect in the system. He was as toolsy as they come, with plus speed, big raw power, and a powerful throwing arm in center field.
Unfortunately, Florial never found a way to tap into all his potential at the highest level. Over parts of four seasons with the Yankees from 2020-23, he appeared in just 48 games, slashing .209/.313/.296 with a 75 wRC+. The Yankees traded him to the Guardians after the 2023 season, and he earned more playing time in Cleveland, appearing in 36 games for the Guardians in April and May. However, his results were just as poor. Over 111 trips to the plate, he put up a .173/.264/.367 batting line, good for an 80 wRC+. Cleveland designated him for assignment at the end of May, and he spent the rest of the season with the Triple-A Columbus Clippers.
Although Florial didn’t look any better with the Clippers than he did with the Guardians (.213 AVG, 83 wRC+), he has had success at Triple-A in the recent past. From 2022-23, he put up an impressive .283/.374/.523 slash-line over 202 games for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders. In that time, he hit 43 home runs, stole 64 bases, and produced a 127 wRC+. It’s that level of performance the Eagles are surely hoping he’ll replicate in his first season in the KBO.
Rakuten Eagles Sign Spencer Howard, Miguel Yajure
The Rakuten Eagles of Nippon Professional Baseball have signed right-handed pitchers Spencer Howard and Miguel Yajure, the team announced. Both pitchers will presumably join the Eagles starting rotation. The 2025 season will be Howard’s first in NPB and Yajure’s second.
Howard, 28, was once a promising prospect in the Phillies organization but struggled to translate his minor league skills to the major league level. Over parts of five seasons with the Phillies, Rangers, Giants, and Guardians, he put up a 7.00 ERA in 144 innings of work. His underlying numbers, including a 4.77 SIERA, are better than his unsightly ERA, but no matter what statistics you look at, it’s clear Howard could not reliably retire MLB hitters. He has also struggled in the minors in recent years, putting up a 7.07 ERA and 6.20 FIP in 70 innings at Triple-A from 2022-24. Thus, the righty will look for a fresh start with the Eagles in 2025.
Yajure, 27 in May, made his MLB debut for the Yankees during the 2020 season. Over the next three years, he pitched 46 1/3 innings for the Yankees and Pirates, putting up a 7.58 ERA – even higher than Howard’s. His 5.37 SIERA was similarly poor, as was his low strikeout rate and high walk rate. If you include hit-by-pitches, he issued nearly as many free passes (32) as strikeouts (35). So, he set out in hopes of finding greener pastures across the pond last winter. Indeed, that’s exactly what he found. Yajure signed a one-year contract with the Yakult Swallows ahead of the 2024 season. With the Swallows, he pitched to a 3.34 ERA over 129 1/3 innings. A mid-3.00s ERA in NPB isn’t quite as impressive as it would be in MLB, but Yajure was a solid contributor for the Swallows, finishing second on the team in innings pitched. It was enough to convince the Eagles to give him a contract for 2025. He’ll look to build upon a solid first season in his sophomore NPB campaign.
Dodgers Sign Michael Conforto
December 10: The Dodgers officially announced Conforto’s signing today.
December 8: The Dodgers signed a left-handed hitting outfielder represented by Scott Boras tonight. No, not that one. Shortly before the Mets signed Juan Soto to a seismic contract, the Dodgers agreed to a deal with Michael Conforto, per a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Conforto’s deal with L.A. is a one-year pact worth $17MM, according to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez. Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times reports the deal includes deferred money and an $8.5MM signing bonus.
Conforto, 32 in March, was selected by the Mets tenth overall in the 2014 draft and emerged as an impact bat for the club early in his career. In his first six seasons as a big leaguer, Conforto slashed an incredible .259/.358/.484 with a wRC+ of 128. Conforto made an All-Star appearance, slugged 118 homers in 632 games, and established himself as one of the best young offensive players in the NL.
Unfortunately, however, Conforto was dogged by shoulder issues early in his career that came to a head following a down 2021 season (104 wRC+). Conforto declined the Qualifying Offer and entered free agency in line for a solid payday, but required surgery during the 2021-22 lockout and ultimately did not sign a contract for the 2022 season while he recuperated.
Despite missing the entire 2022 season, Conforto inked a strong two-year, $36MM deal with the Giants, one of eight contracts by former GM Farhan Zaidi that included an opt-out. After posting a league average 99 wRC+ in his first year with the Giants, Conforto chose not to opt out of the $18MM he was owed for 2024.
Conforto improved to a 112 wRC+ in 2024, including a 137 surge over the season’s final two months. He showed a reverse platoon split, beating up on lefties more so than righties. He also managed a 133 wRC+ away from Oracle Park, a place known to suppress offense.
Over the two years Conforto has been a Giant, Oracle Park has been the second-worst park in baseball for offense, ahead of only T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Dodger Stadium, meanwhile, is right around league average as the 17th best park in the majors for offense.
While the Dodgers are surely hoping that Conforto unlocks something closer to the form he showed throughout his 20s in New York with them this year, even the 105 wRC+ he’s offered over the past three seasons would help to bolster the club’s lackluster outfield mix. Dodgers outfielders combined for a wRC+ of just 101 last year, a figure that is drastically improved by contributions from Teoscar Hernandez and Mookie Betts. Hernandez is currently a free agent, however, and while Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Dodgers remain in on him even after signing Conforto, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be in a Dodgers uniform in 2025. With Betts ticketed for an infield role next season, that left the Dodgers with a projected outfield of Tommy Edman, James Outman, and Andy Pages for next season. Pages’s 100 wRC+ led that trio in 2024, and even a relatively mediocre season for Conforto would be a massive upgrade over Outman’s ghastly 54 wRC+ in 53 games last year.
With the addition of Conforto, RosterResource projects the Dodgers for a $326MM payroll in 2025 that perfectly matches their 2024 payroll, though that projection does not factor in deferred money. Regardless, that’s not expected to prevent president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and his front office from spending this winter. Every indication has been that the Dodgers are willing and able to increase their payroll well beyond last year’s figure in order to land the right players, which is surely a relief for fans given the number of holes that remain on the roster. The Dodgers could use additional bullpen help even after reuniting with Blake Treinen earlier this evening, would benefit from either re-signing Hernandez or adding another bat to their lineup, and at minimum they appear likely to reunite with Clayton Kershaw to bolster their rotation even after landing Blake Snell last month.
Dodgers Sign Blake Treinen
December 10: Treinen’s signing has now been officially announced by the Dodgers, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (X link).
December 9: Per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times (X link), Treinen will get a $5MM signing bonus and there no deferrals on the deal.
December 8: The Dodgers are in agreement with right-hander Blake Treinen on a two-year deal worth $22MM, according to a report from Ari Alexander of KPRC2. It’s the largest deal for a reliever going into his age-37 or later season since the Yankees signed Mariano Rivera in 2010. Treinen is represented by Apex Baseball.
Treinen, 36, was the Dodgers’ highest-leverage reliever this year. Despite his fastball slipping nearly three miles per hour, he posted excellent marks with a 1.93 ERA, 30.4 K%, 6.0 BB%, and 44.7% groundball rate in 46 2/3 innings. Treinen has been with the Dodgers since signing a one-year, $10MM deal five years ago after the A’s non-tendered him.
Treinen has worked 149 2/3 regular season innings for the Dodgers from 2020-24, adding another 33 1/3 across four different postseasons. He remained the go-to reliever for Dodgers manager Dave Roberts in tough spots as the club climbed through the postseason to win a championship. He made nine appearances this postseason, getting more than three outs in five of them. Treinen was the winning pitcher in the decisive Game 5 of the World Series against the Yankees, stepping up with 2 1/3 scoreless innings.
Drafted in the seventh round by the A’s out of South Dakota State University in 2011, Treinen was shipped to the Nationals in January 2013 as part of a three-team deal that brought the Mariners Mike Morse. Somewhat of an afterthought in that deal, Treinen worked his way up to a high-leverage role in the Nationals’ bullpen by 2016. Treinen had a rough first half in 2017, and A’s GM Billy Beane made sure to reacquire the hard-throwing pitcher he’d drafted six years prior. The A’s sent Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nats in that deal, bringing back Jesus Luzardo, Treinen, and Sheldon Neuse.
The trade back to Oakland proved a turning point in Treinen’s career, as he blossomed into one of the game’s best relievers. In fact, Treinen’s 0.78 ERA in 2018 stands as the lowest mark in MLB history for a pitcher with at least 80 innings. The combination of a temporary setback in 2019 (perhaps related to a back injury) and Treinen’s rising arbitration salaries led to the aforementioned non-tender, however.
Though Treinen had some struggles in the shortened 2020 season, he remained healthy and even picked up a save in Game 5 on the way to his first ring. The Dodgers re-upped him for two years and $17.5MM with a club option for a third year. He posted a superb 2021 season, but the following two years would be plagued by injuries.
Treinen was limited to a mere five regular season innings from 2022-23, due to a shoulder injury that culminated in November 2022 labrum and rotator cuff surgery. The Dodgers had previously secured a 2024 option that increased based on innings pitched, allowing them to retain Treinen for just $1MM this year. He made his season debut in May due a bruised lung, hitting the IL again in August with hip discomfort.
Given that the Mets intend to use Clay Holmes as a starting pitcher, the Treinen deal is just the second significant relief contract of the offseason, after the Red Sox signed Aroldis Chapman five days prior. Treinen will again slot into the late innings for the Dodgers alongside fellow righties Evan Phillips and Michael Kopech.
The Dodgers made a pair of notable signings Sunday evening, re-signing Treinen shortly after adding outfielder Michael Conforto on a one-year deal. The spotlight as we head into the Winter Meetings in Dallas, however, was on the Mets’ record-shattering 15-year, $765MM deal with Juan Soto. The Dodgers were in the mix for Soto, but never seemed to be the favorite. The Dodgers did make a splash already this winter by signing Blake Snell to a five-year, $182MM deal with deferrals.
With the additions of Snell, Conforto, and Treinen and an extension for Tommy Edman, RosterResource pegs the Dodgers’ competitive balance tax payroll at about $332MM, in a year where the fourth tax bracket sits at $301MM. Given that the Dodgers already exceeded that mark by signing Snell, adding Conforto and Treinen will in effect cost the Dodgers $58.8MM this year, given the club’s 110% tax bracket.
Twins Sign Huascar Ynoa To Minor League Deal
The Twins have signed Huascar Ynoa to a minors contract, according to Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein (X link). The right-hander will receive an invitation to Minnesota’s big league Spring Training camp as part of the non-guaranteed deal.
Ynoa appeared in parts of four MLB seasons with the Braves from 2019-22, topping out at 91 innings during the 2021 campaign. Ynoa posted a 4.05 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, and 6.7% walk rate while stepping into Atlanta’s rotation as an injury replacement, helping set the theme of unexpected contributors emerging to help lead the Braves to an unlikely World Series title. A shoulder injury forced Ynoa’s removal from the Braves’ NLCS roster, however, and he also missed three months of the regular season after breaking his hand while punching the dugout in frustration after a tough start.
More setbacks awaited the next season, as Ynoa only pitched 6 2/3 MLB innings in 2022 and spent most of the year at Triple-A. Ynoa then underwent a Tommy John surgery that cost him the entire 2023 campaign, and he returned to pitch only 29 2/3 minor league innings this year before being sidelined again by a stress reaction in his right elbow. Atlanta opted to non-tender Ynoa, as despite a modest $825K projected arbitration salary, the Braves still preferred to open up a roster spot and move on from the righty.
Ynoa will now return to his original franchise at this turning point of this career. The Twins signed Ynoa during the 2014 international signing period and he pitched in parts of three minor league seasons in Minnesota’s farm system before being dealt to the Braves in July 2017. Ynoa is overdue for some good health as he tries to get his career on track, and there’s no risk for the Twins in taking a flier on a pitcher who is still just 26 years old.
Marlins Release Mike Baumann To Pursue NPB Opportunity
7:22pm: Baumann is actually headed to Japan. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN reports (on X) that the CAA client has agreed to a deal with the Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball.
7:13pm: The Marlins released reliever Mike Baumann, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction tracker. Miami’s 40-man roster count drops to 39.
Baumann landed with the Fish on a waiver claim in late August. They were rather incredibly his fifth team of the season. The out-of-options righty bounced around as the last man in the bullpen for each of the Orioles, Mariners, Giants and Angels as well. Baumann didn’t pitch especially well for any of those clubs. He finished the year with a 5.55 earned run average over 58 1/3 innings. His 22% strikeout percentage wasn’t far off the MLB average, but he walked an elevated 10.6% of opponents while giving up plenty of hard contact.
The 29-year-old was a capable middle reliever for the Orioles as recently as 2023. He worked to a 3.76 ERA in a career-high 64 2/3 innings with Baltimore two seasons ago. Assuming he clears release waivers, Baumann will become a free agent. He’s probably looking at minor league deals but won’t have any issue getting a non-roster invite to MLB camp.
As for Miami, the move appears to be related to Wednesday’s Rule 5 draft. The Fish could not have made a selection if they went into the draft with a full 40-man roster. Miami picks third behind the White Sox and Rockies. The Marlins could have a target of their own in mind or try to work out a draft-and-trade with a team that sits lower in the order.
Phillies Sign Jordan Romano
The Phillies finalized a one-year contract with reliever Jordan Romano, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski confirmed at the Winter Meetings. The longtime Blue Jays righty is reportedly guaranteed $8.5MM and would receive another $500K if he pitches 60 innings next season. Romano is represented by VC Sports Group.
The Phils are making a bet on a bounceback. Romano, 32 in February, just finished a frustrating and injury-marred season with the Blue Jays but was their closer for three years prior to that. The righty saved 95 games for the Jays from 2021 to 2023, tossing 186 innings with a 2.37 earned run average. He struck out 30.3% of batters faced in that time while giving out walks at a 9.2% clip and getting grounders on 42.3% of balls in play.
But 2024 was mostly a lost season for him. He started the season on the injured list due to some right elbow inflammation and never seemed to be fully healthy. He went on and off the IL throughout the year, making just 15 appearances with a 6.59 ERA. His 21% strikeout rate in that small sample was not only below his previous work but also below league average.
He underwent arthroscopic surgery on the elbow in July and was given an estimated six-week shutdown time frame. The Jays were hoping to get Romano back on the mound before the season was up but that didn’t come to pass. His last major league appearance was May 29.
The Jays could have retained Romano for one more season via arbitration. Salaries almost never go down via the arb system, so MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected the righty for the same $7.75MM salary he made in 2024. The Jays apparently weren’t willing to fork over that kind of cash for the chance to find out if Romano could get over his lost season, as he was not tendered a contract for 2025. Last week, general manager Ross Atkins said that he expected Romano to be healthy and hoped to re-sign him, but presumably at a lower price point. Instead, Romano will get a fresh start with a new organization and get a slight pay bump.
The Philadelphia bullpen has been shuffled quite a bit in recent months. They traded away Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto at the trade deadline, then lost Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez to free agency at season’s end. They still have some good arms back there, including Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm, but they’ve naturally been looking for bullpen upgrades this winter.
Opting for Romano also makes sense for financial reasons. The Phils have spent a lot of money on their roster in recent years, both via free agency and extensions of incumbent players. That has led to them paying the competitive balance tax three years in a row now. Going into 2025, they were projected to have a high payroll and CBT number yet again, before even making any offseason moves.
That has seemingly led to a shift in approach this winter. While they have been connected to many of the top available free agents in recent offseasons, they seemingly didn’t get involved in the Juan Soto frenzy and there have been many rumors about them trying to trade players like Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm and others.
They reportedly had some interest in re-signing Hoffman and Estévez but both will likely be signing deals far larger than this pact for Romano. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Hoffman for a four-year, $44MM deal. That was before the clubs reportedly expressed interest in him as a starter, which could potentially increase his earning power. Estévez was projected for a more modest $27MM guarantee over three years, but still a notable commitment.
By going for Romano, the Phils are hoping that they are making a big upgrade to their bullpen but at a relatively low cost since they are buying low. There is some risk there, as relievers are generally volatile in general and Romano is coming off an injury-marred season, but it’s a logical gamble to take. If things go especially well, it’s possible the Phils could extend a qualifying offer to Romano at the end of next year. Qualifying offers for relievers are rare, but guys like Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias and Will Smith have received them in recent years.
Now factoring in Romano, RosterResource projects the Phillies for a $271MM payroll. That would be a franchise record by a significant margin, with Cot’s Baseball Contracts having them in the $242-244MM range in recent years but never higher than that. RR projects the CBT number at $289MM for next year. That’s not only beyond the $241MM base threshold but also the second and third tiers of $261MM and $281MM, respectively. As a third-time CBT payor, the Phils will be looking at a 50% base tax next year as well as surcharges of 12%, 45% and 60% for spending beyond the higher tiers. That means they are already slated for a 95% tax rate on any additional spending right now and a 110% rate if they go beyond $301MM, though successfully trading away a notable contract could drop them lower. If they remain above the third line of $281MM, they would also see their top pick in the 2026 draft dropped back ten spots. All of these could be significant factors as the club looks to make further upgrades in the rest of the offseason.
For the Jays, remaking the bullpen will also be a big storyline in the coming weeks and months. Their relief group had a collective ERA of 4.82 in 2024, ahead of just the Rockies and a key factor in their disappointing season. Getting better results out of the bullpen will be necessary for a turnaround but they will have to do so with a new closer. Chad Green racked up 17 saves in 2024 while Romano was mostly out of action and could be the favorite for the job among guys currently on the roster, but they could perhaps find an external addition and bump green into a setup role.
Jim Salisbury first reported the Phillies had interest in Romano. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the sides had reached an agreement. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first correctly reported the terms.
Mets Sign Clay Holmes
The Mets officially announced the signing of Clay Holmes to a three-year deal that allows him to opt out after the second season. It’s a reported $38MM guarantee for the Wasserman client. Holmes will collect $13MM salaries in each of the next two years before deciding whether to opt out of the final year and $12MM. The deal comes with an approximate $12.67MM average annual value for luxury tax purposes. The Mets intend to use Holmes as a starting pitcher.
Holmes, who turns 32 on Opening Day, heads across town after three and a half seasons in the Bronx. He was an inconsistent pitcher for the Pirates between 2018-21. The Yankees, intrigued by his gaudy ground-ball rates, acquired him at the ’21 trade deadline. That move wasn’t met with a ton of fanfare, but Holmes broke out immediately after donning pinstripes.
Owner of a 4.93 earned run average at the time of the trade, Holmes fired 28 innings of 1.61 ERA ball to kick off his Yankees career. He took over as Aaron Boone’s closer by the following season. Holmes saved 20 games with a 2.54 ERA across 63 2/3 innings to earn his first All-Star nod in 2022. He followed up with 63 frames of 2.86 ERA ball while picking up 24 saves.
Holmes got out to another strong start this year. He didn’t allow an earned run over 13 1/3 innings through the end of April. He had a productive May as well, though he started to struggle with his command. That was a sign of a somewhat rocky summer. Holmes posted a 3.64 ERA in 30 appearances between the start of June and the end of August. While his rate production wasn’t terrible, he relinquished a lot of leads. By the start of September, the Yankees had replaced him in the ninth inning with Luke Weaver. Holmes finished the season in a setup role.
The 6’5″ righty concluded the regular season with a 3.14 ERA across 67 innings. He struck out around a quarter of batters faced against a league average 8.1% walk rate. Holmes got grounders at a characteristically excellent 65% clip. It’s far from a bad season, but he was bizarrely prone to blowing leads. While he recorded a career-high 30 saves, he was charged with an MLB-worst 13 blown saves. No other reliever gave up more than eight leads. He went into the postseason trending in the wrong direction after losing the closing job.
To his credit, Holmes rebounded when the lights were brightest. He only gave up three runs in 12 postseason innings. While he’d fallen behind Weaver in the bullpen hierarchy, he remained one of Boone’s most trusted setup options. Holmes picked up five holds without giving up the lead once in October.
That finish was a more fitting ending to his strong run in the Bronx. While the fanbase was divided at times on his reliability, Holmes posted good to elite numbers throughout his Yankee tenure. Of the 86 relievers with at least 150 innings over the past three years, Holmes ranks 17th in ERA. While his 25.7% strikeout percentage is middle of the pack, his 68.6% ground-ball rate is #1 among that group.
There’s no doubt that Holmes can be a productive reliever. The Mets believe he can be more than that. They’ll give him a chance at a full-time rotation role for the first time in his MLB career. Holmes has started four major league games, all of which came during his 2018 rookie season in Pittsburgh. Those didn’t go well — he allowed a 7.80 ERA with more walks than strikeouts in 15 innings — but that’s of little consequence. The Mets aren’t placing any stock in a minuscule sample that predated his breakout by three years.
Like many MLB relievers, Holmes was a starting pitcher in the minors. He’s not completely unfamiliar with working multiple innings, but it’ll be a tough test against big league hitters. He’ll probably need to make an adjustment to his pitch mix. Holmes has essentially abandoned his changeup since moving to the bullpen. His 96-97 MPH sinker is his go-to offering, the pitch most responsible for his huge grounder rates. Holmes has deployed two distinct breaking balls — an 87 MPH slider and an 83-84 MPH offering that Statcast classifies as a sweeper.
Having three pitches is an advantage as Holmes tries to navigate a lineup two or three times in an appearance. However, he hasn’t used a changeup or splitter that most starters have to handle opposite-handed hitters. Holmes has fared well against hitters of either handedness, but his strikeout and walk profile is far better when he holds the platoon advantage.
As a Yankee, Holmes held right-handed batters to a pitiful .203/.267/.284 batting line. He struck them out at a huge 31.7% clip against a tidy 6.2% walk rate. He fanned only 19.8% of left-handed opponents while issuing walks at a 9.8% rate. Holmes still held lefties to a mediocre .235/.318/.307 slash, but that’ll present more of a challenge as he works through a lineup multiple times.
There’s significant upside if Holmes can make that transition. Reliever to rotation success stories have gotten increasingly common. Seth Lugo, Reynaldo López, Garrett Crochet and Holmes’ former teammate Michael King have become top-of-the-rotation starters after spending most of their careers in relief. Jeffrey Springs, José Soriano and Zack Littell look like mid-rotation arms. It hasn’t been uniformly positive, though. Jordan Hicks wore down quickly when the Giants tried him as a starter last season. The Marlins experimented with A.J. Puk in the rotation. They pulled the plug by the end of April after he had four terrible starts.
Puk moved back to the bullpen with relative ease after the rotation experiment flopped. That’s a possibility for Holmes as well. The Mets surely believe he could return to a setup role in front of Edwin Díaz if he doesn’t take to the rotation. They’d be paying a high but not outlandish price for a leverage reliever in that case. Robert Stephenson, Rafael Montero and Taylor Rogers have signed three-year deals in the $33-35MM range in recent years. The Braves guaranteed López $30MM to give him a shot as a starter. Hicks, who is younger than the rest of that group, signed a four-year deal worth $44MM.
MLBTR predicted Holmes would land a three-year, $30MM contract that valued him as a setup arm. The Mets are going a little beyond that based on the perceived upside as a starter. The opt-out gives Holmes a chance to retest the market after two seasons. If he proves he’s capable of starting, he could do quite well in that return trip. There’s precedent for starters getting lucrative three-year deals at age 34. Lugo signed for $45MM, while Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt each inked $63MM contracts.
Holmes is the second rotation addition for the Mets in recent days. They finalized a two-year, $34MM deal with Frankie Montas on Wednesday. They’ve taken upside fliers in the middle of the market thus far — a strategy they employed to great success last offseason with Sean Manaea and Luis Severino. There should be more rotation moves on the way. New York already lost Severino and could see Manaea and Jose Quintana depart as free agents.
Kodai Senga and David Peterson likely have rotation spots secured, but there’s little certainty with a fifth spot that’d go to one of Tylor Megill or Paul Blackburn at the moment. Senga barely pitched this year, while Holmes could be on an innings limit. The Mets are still potential suitors for a top-of-the-market arm like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried, though president of baseball operations David Stearns has yet to make that kind of move. At the very least, they’ll continue to identify upside targets in the middle of free agency.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the Mets and Holmes were in agreement on a three-year deal worth $38MM. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the opt-out clause and confirmed the Mets would use Holmes as a starter, which Sherman first suggested earlier this week. Will Sammon of the Athletic reported the salary breakdown.
Image courtesy of Imagn.
Angels, Dakota Hudson Agree To Minor League Deal
The Angels and right-hander Dakota Hudson have agreed to a minor league deal, per Aram Leighton of Just Baseball (X link). The righty will presumably receive an invite to big league spring training as well.
Hudson, 30, is coming off a rough season. He signed a one-year deal with the Rockies with a $1.5MM guarantee but wasn’t able to give the club much in return for that investment. He made 18 starts and threw 89 innings but allowed 6.17 earned runs per nine. He struck out just 12.1% of batters faced, giving out walks at a higher rate of 12.4%. His 52.3% ground ball rate was typically strong for him but it wasn’t enough for him to cling to a job even in the injury-marred Colorado rotation.
In July, Hudson was designated for assignment and sent through waivers unclaimed. He was later added back to the roster in August but quickly wound up on the injured list due to elbow inflammation and finished the season there. He was outrighted off the roster again in October and elected free agency.
Once upon a time, Hudson seemed like a solid rotation option for the Cardinals. Over the 2019 and 2020 seasons, he tossed 213 2/3 innings with a 3.24 ERA, 18.4% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate and 56.9% ground ball rate. But Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2021 season and he hasn’t been able to bounce back since. His 221 innings in the 2022-23 seasons resulted in a 4.64 ERA with his strikeout rate falling to 12.9%. His 52.5% ground ball in that time was still above league average but a drop from his own previous track record.
For the Angels, rotation depth has been an ongoing issue for years. 2024 was no exception, as the club’s starters posted a collective 4.97 ERA, which was better than only the Marlins and Rockies. They subtracted from their group by sending Griffin Canning to Atlanta in the Jorge Soler deal. Patrick Sandoval was also non-tendered after requiring elbow surgery in the summer.
This offseason, they have signed Yusei Kikuchi and Kyle Hendricks, adding to a group that also includes José Soriano and Tyler Anderson. The roster also features Reid Detmers, Chase Silseth, Caden Dana, Sam Aldegheri, Jack Kochanowicz and others but Hudson will give them a bit of non-roster depth and try to get back on track after a few challenging years.