Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Now Available
6,135 people submitted entries in MLBTR’s annual free agent prediction contest! The contest leaderboard is now available. Tom Diesman is currently in the lead with an impressive five correct picks for the seven top 50 free agents who have signed so far. Tom’s lofty .714 contest batting average surely won’t last, but he’s off to a blazing start having nailed the destinations of Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Reynaldo Lopez, and Nick Martinez. Last year, Steve Sacks won the contest with a .295 average (13 of 44).
MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list was originally published on November 6th. You can check that out here.
Several Teams Interested In Vladimir Gutierrez
Free agent right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez has several teams interested in him, reports Francys Romero.
Gutierrez, now 28, was once a high-profile prospect that signed with the Reds after he defected from his native Cuba. The club gave him a bonus of $4.75MM but effectively had to pay double under the old bonus system, a 100% tax for going over their limit. That meant they paid $9.5MM to get Gutierrez into the system.
As he worked his way up the minors, he became a notable prospect in their system, with Baseball America ranking him one of the 10 best Reds’ prospects in three straight years from 2017 to 2019. His stock has dimmed since then, however. In 2020, before he had reached the majors, he received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. He was nonetheless added to the club’s 40-man roster to keep him out of that year’s Rule 5 draft. He went on to appear in 32 games over the 2021 and 2022 seasons but required Tommy John surgery in July of 2022. He made five minor league appearances late in 2023 as part of a rehab assignment but was still on the IL at season’s end.
He was set to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a modest bump to $1MM. That’s barely above the major league minimum salary, which will be $740K in 2024. But the Reds evidently didn’t want to give him that raise, as he was outrighted off the roster in October. Now he’ll be looking to jump to a new organization for the first time in his career.
He once looked like a potentially useful rotation piece, making 22 starts for the Reds in 2021 when he was just 25 years old, posting a 4.74 earned run average. His 17.7% strikeout rate was subpar but his 9.3% walk rate and 43.4% ground ball rate were around league average. Unfortunately, his results were rough in 2022, as his ERA jumped to 7.61 before he went under the knife. During his brief rehab assignment in 2023, he struck out 25.9% of batters faced but also showed plenty of rust with a 22.2% walk rate.
Now a free agent, Gutierrez would be a low-cost project for any club that signs him. He still has a couple of option years, meaning he could be kept in the minors as a depth piece by any club that gave him a roster spot. He’s also shy of three years of service time, meaning he could potentially be retained for future seasons via arbitration if he is able to get into good form.
All reporting indicates the demand for starting pitching is incredibly high this offseason and some clubs will inevitably miss out on the costlier free agents, which will leave them looking for cheaper options. Even big spending clubs needs to have depth pieces, which could give Gutierrez widespread appeal, given his options and cheap club control.
Multiple Clubs Interested In Noah Syndergaard
Free agent right-hander Noah Syndergaard is reportedly drawing interest from multiple clubs. In an appearance on Foul Territory, Robert Murray of FanSided relayed that teams are looking at the righty as a bounceback candidate and hoping for a buy-low opportunity.
It’s understandable why clubs would consider such a move but the reason that Syndergaard is available in a buy-low situation is that his 2023 was so dismal. He signed a one-year, $13MM deal with the Dodgers but posted an earned run average of 7.16 in his 12 starts for that club. He was flipped to the Guardians at the deadline in a swap of struggling players, with Amed Rosario going to the Dodgers. Syndergaard took the ball six times for the Guards with slightly better results, as his ERA was 5.40 in those. But he was nonetheless designated for assignment and released at the end of August. He didn’t sign anywhere else for the final month of the season.
Despite that rough campaign, Syndergaard might be a beneficiary of the robust market for starting pitchers, as various reports suggest that the demand for rotation help is incredibly high. Aaron Nola got a hefty $172MM guarantee over seven years to return to the Phillies. But even Lance Lynn, who was coming off a very poor season, received a guarantee of $11MM on a one-year deal with the Cardinals.
That perhaps gives some hope to Syndergaard, but on the other hand, his strong results are now pretty far in the past. Lynn had a 5.73 ERA in 2023 while allowing 44 home runs but he still struck out 23.6% of batters. He also had a much more palatable ERA of 3.99 in 2022 with a 24.2% strikeout rate. Despite his struggles this year, there are at least some encouraging things under the hood.
It’s hard to say the same for Syndergaard, who struck out just 14.3% of batters faced in 2023. Like Lynn, his ERA was much better in 2022, coming in at 3.94. But he did that despite striking out just 16.8% of opponents in that season. He missed all of 2020 and most of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery so a bit of rust was to be expected but he’s yet to show signs of returning anywhere near his pre-surgery form.
From 2015 to 2019, he posted a 3.31 ERA over 716 innings. In the process, he struck out 26.4% of batters faced, walked just 5.7% and kept 49.1% of balls in play on the ground. Prior to the surgery, his four-seam fastball and sinker each average between 97 and 99 mph but the past two years have seen him average in the 92-94 mph range. His slider averaged 92-93 mph before he went under the knife but he’s been around 85 mph since. Those diminished weapons have naturally reduced his ability to punch out big league hitters and he’s now had four straight years of either being injured or posting middling results.
Now 31, it’s fair to wonder if there’s a path to turn things around. The Dodgers and Guardians are two organizations with strong reputations for getting the most out of pitchers but each gave up on Syndergaard last year. Though if the market for starters is as strong as the reporting indicates, the contracts for the top guys will be wild and there figures to be strong competition for even mid-rotation arms and back-end guys. More than half the league has reportedly checked in on Seth Lugo while, as mentioned, Lynn got an eight-figure guarantee coming off a nightmare season. Perhaps that will lead some club to taking a flier on Syndergaard and hoping for the best.
Seth Lugo Drawing Widespread Interest
Multiple reports have indicated that the demand for starting pitching is huge this offseason and one player that could benefit is right-hander Seth Lugo. In an appearance on Foul Territory, Robert Murray of FanSided reports that Lugo’s market is extensive and “more than half the league” has checked in on him.
Lugo, 34, spent most of his career in the bullpen with the Mets but reached free agency last winter and drew plenty of interest from clubs who thought he could return to the rotation, as he had done years before. The Padres were ultimately the one to take a chance on Lugo, signing him to a two-year, $15MM deal with an opt-out opportunity midway through.
The experiment worked quite well, as Lugo was ultimately able to throw 146 1/3 innings over 26 starts. He missed about a month due to a calf strain, but apart from that, the larger workload didn’t seem to impact his results. He posted an earned run average of 3.57, striking out 23.2% of batters, limiting walks to a 6% rate and keeping 45.2% of balls in play on the ground.
Now that he has proven himself capable of filling a starting role, his market should be even stronger this offseason than it was a year ago, making it an easy decision for him to opt out and retry free agency. Murray notes that Lugo’s market is vast and that he would not be surprised to see Lugo get a three- or four-year deal. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Lugo for a three-year, $42MM pact, which would be $14MM per year.
Given his age, it would be hard for Lugo to go too far beyond that. But that ceiling is perhaps why so many clubs are interested. Aaron Nola already secured himself a seven-year, $172MM deal to return to the Phillies and nine-figure deals should also be available for guys like Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jordan Montgomery. The appetite for starting pitching is high but not every club will be able or willing to pay those kinds of prices, leaving them looking to guys like Lugo.
To this point in the offseason, Lugo has been specifically linked to the Tigers but it seems his market is far wider than that. He will likely require a modest average annual value, relative to some of the other free agents, which makes him a speculative fit for a far greater number of clubs. Even mid- or small-market teams need to give out eight-figure contracts from time to time and the widespread demand should help Lugo earn a much greater guarantee than he got a year ago. It was recently reported that nearly half the league had checked in on Yamamoto, but he is widely expected to get $200MM or more. Since Lugo is perhaps looking at getting a quarter of that, it stands to reason that he has even more clubs calling him up.
Pham: Interest From Around 10 Teams In Free Agency
Tommy Pham is on the open market for a third consecutive season. The veteran outfielder is in a better spot than he had been from 2021-22, as he’s coming arguably his best year since 2019.
In an appearance on the New York’s Post podcast with Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman, Pham said his representatives at Vayner Sports have had conversations with roughly 10 teams. While he said he has yet to receive an official offer, Pham indicated that interest is far more robust than it was last offseason. The righty-hitting outfielder told Heyman and Sherman that he heard from just three teams before he signed a $6MM guarantee with the Mets in the middle of January.
Pham unsurprisingly didn’t name any of the clubs that have checked in. He suggested he’s seeking an opportunity to continue playing on an everyday basis. “I don’t view myself as a platoon player,” he replied when asked about his free agent priorities. “I’m not comfortable going into a situation where they’re saying ‘hey, you’re only going to play against lefties.’ I still want to play every day. That’s most important to me. Then winning, of course.”
Landing a job as a team’s primary left fielder seems attainable after Pham’s solid performance in 2023. He hit .256/.328/.446 with 16 home runs through 481 plate appearances. As he has throughout his career, he posted strong exit velocities. Pham’s respective 9.8% walk rate and 22% strikeout percentage weren’t far off the league averages. He also stole 22 bases in 25 attempts and rated as a neutral corner outfield defender.
Pham’s offensive production was balanced. He hit for more power against left-handed pitching but had a higher batting average and on-base mark against same-handed arms. His .262/.332/.435 slash versus righties and .245/.322/.465 showing against southpaws aren’t that dissimilar. Pham’s production was concentrated more heavily early in the season. He hit .268/.348/.472 for the Mets before running a .241/.304/.415 line upon being dealt to the Diamondbacks on deadline day. Pham ran a .279/.297/.475 slash over 16 postseason contests during the Snakes’ run to the World Series.
Turning 36 in March, the 10-year MLB veteran may again be limited to one-year offers. He should at least find a loftier guarantee than last year’s $6MM figure and a two-year pact isn’t entirely implausible. Pham’s old teams in Queens and Arizona each have questions about their left field situations. The Braves, Nationals, Twins, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Mariners and Yankees are among other speculative suitors for corner outfield help.
Josh Donaldson Open To Playing Another Season
Josh Donaldson returned to free agency at season’s end. The veteran third baseman had finished out the year with the Brewers after being released by the Yankees in late August.
The 2015 AL MVP tells Josh Wegman of The Score that he’s open to a return for what would be his age-38 season. A potential 14th big league campaign would seemingly be his last, as Donaldson indicated he’d be unlikely to continue into 2025.
“If it’s a situation that I feel (comfortable in) then I’m definitely up for playing one more year,” Donaldson told Wegman. “But I think after this upcoming season, that would be my last season no matter what. I would like to play one more year and go out on a good note and then that’d be it.”
Donaldson isn’t going to be a priority target for teams coming off the worst season of his career. He had hit .142/.225/.434 in 34 games for the Yankees. Donaldson had a pair of lengthy injured list stints, losing time to hamstring and calf injuries. His production in Milwaukee was slightly improved but still below average. Over 17 contests with the Brew Crew, he managed a .169/.290/.390 showing. He finished the year with a bizarre .152/.249/.418 batting line over 189 plate appearances. A staggering 13 of his 25 hits for the season were home runs.
While he still brings some power potential from the right-handed batter’s box, Donaldson’s offense has skewed toward an extreme three true outcomes approach. He surely won’t repeat a .115 batting average on balls in play, but he’s also striking out more than he did earlier in his career.
In July, Donaldson acknowledged some uncertainty about playing beyond 2023. He’s apparently now willing to do so, although it’s possible he’d be particular about a destination. Donaldson understandably didn’t seem enthused about the idea of signing with a non-competitive team. At the same time, he indicated the calculus for competitiveness would be his subjective perception of a team’s chances as opposed to general consensus.
“For me to believe that the team has a chance to contend, I wouldn’t say that everybody has to have the thought of that team contending,” Donaldson said. “I would definitely want to feel like the team has a chance to win.”
It isn’t clear if he’d have any appetite for a minor league deal if no team were willing to guarantee him a roster spot. Donaldson’s contract with the Brewers was a non-roster deal, but Milwaukee called him up after five tune-up games in Triple-A.
Matt Chapman is the headliner of this winter’s free agent third base class. Jeimer Candelario is the clear #2 option, while Justin Turner and Evan Longoria are veteran righty hitters who could rotate through the corner infield and designated hitter. Gio Urshela has a chance at a two-year deal. Brian Anderson, Mike Moustakas and Eduardo Escobar are among the depth options.
Enter The MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest
UPDATE: The contest is now closed. Stay tuned for the leaderboard.
The MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest is currently open! Click here to enter your picks for the destinations for our top 50 free agents. The deadline for entry is TONIGHT at 11pm central time! You can edit your picks until then. Further contest info:
- After the window to make picks has closed, we’ll post a public leaderboard page so you can see who’s winning the contest as players sign with teams. We’re going to use entrants’ full names on it. So, if that concerns you, please do not enter the contest. Entries with inappropriate names will be deleted.
- We are also collecting email addresses, which I will use to notify winners.
- If a player signs between now and the close of the contest, that player will be excluded from the contest.
- After you submit your picks, you’ll receive an email from Google Forms. In that email, you’ll see a button that allows you to edit your picks.
- We will announce the winners on MLBTR once all 50 free agents have signed. We will award $500 to first place, $300 to second place, and $100 to third place. We will also be giving one-year memberships to Trade Rumors Front Office for everyone who finishes in the top 15. Winners must respond to an email within one week.
- The winners of this contest will be declared on Opening Day 2024, and any unsigned players will be excluded from the competition.
- Ties in the correct number of picks will be broken by summing up the rankings of the free agents of the correct picks and taking the lower total. For example: Tim and Steve each get two picks correct. Tim gets Shohei Ohtani (#1 ranking) and Jordan Hicks (#21 ranking) for a total of 22 points. Steve gets Jordan Montgomery (#6) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (#14) for a total of 20 points. Steve’s total is lower and he’s ahead of Tim for tiebreaker purposes.
If you have any further questions, ask us in the comment section of this post! Otherwise, make your picks now!
Trevor Bauer’s Representatives Meeting With Teams In Search Of MLB Opportunity
Trevor Bauer’s representation at Luba Sports is meeting with MLB teams in an effort to find him a major league landing spot, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. It isn’t clear which clubs, if any, have reciprocated interest in the right-hander.
Bauer has not pitched in MLB since June 2021, when an allegation of sexual assault was first publicly reported. Three additional women went public with sexual assault allegations over the next two years. Bauer was never criminally charged, with the L.A. District Attorney’s Office declining to proceed after an investigation into the first woman’s allegations. “After a thorough review of the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt,” prosecutors said at the time.
MLB nevertheless leveled a 324-game suspension under the joint domestic violence/sexual assault policy with the Players Association. Last December, an arbitrator reduced that figure to 194 games — immediately reinstating Bauer onto the Dodgers’ roster based on the amount of time he had already spent on administrative leave while the investigations played out.
That reduced suspension remains the most significant domestic violence discipline since the policy was introduced in 2015. The Dodgers released Bauer two weeks after the appellate results were announced. In mid-March, he signed a one-year, $4MM contract with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. In October, the civil actions between Bauer and the woman who first brought the allegations were settled outside of court (link via Alden González of ESPN).
Bauer had a successful age-32 campaign in NPB. He posted a 2.76 ERA through 130 2/3 innings while striking out 24.3% of opposing hitters. With that one-year deal complete, he is again a free agent.
Enrique Hernández Undergoes Hernia Surgery
Free agent infielder/outfielder Enrique Hernández underwent double hernia surgery on October 24, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The utility player is expected to resume baseball activities in three to four weeks, which should allow him to have a fairly normal offseason and Spring Training.
It’s unknown exactly when this issue cropped up but it’s possible it has been bothering him for a while. Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic relayed today that Hernández had surgery on a hematoma in his psoas muscle last year. He made multiple trips to the injured list in 2022 with what was called a right hip flexor strain, though McCaffrey’s reporting from September of 2022 states that the issue “turned into an abdominal strain created by a hematoma in the psoas muscle, located between the lower part of his spine and his upper thigh. Hernández had blood drained through a needle in his spine and received a PRP shot around the All-Star break to accelerate the healing.”
Hernández, now 32, hit .237/.312/.432 for the Dodgers over 463 games from 2017 to 2020. That amounted to a wRC+ of 98, indicating he was just 2% below league average in that time, as he served as a versatile player that could be plugged into many places. He played every position except catcher in that stretch, even making an appearance on the mound.
He was able to parlay those results into a two-year, $14MM deal with the Red Sox going into 2021. He first season of the deal went very well, with Hernández getting his batting line up to .250/.337/.449 and his wRC+ to 109. Unfortunately, he dipped to a line of .222/.291/.338 and a 74 wRC+ in 2022 as the aforementioned IL stints limited him to 93 games.
Nonetheless, the Sox believed in him enough to give him a one-year extension as that season was winding down, giving him $10MM to stick around for 2023. That didn’t really work out, with Hernández hitting .222/.279/.320 for a 59 wRC+ with the Red Sox. He was flipped to the Dodgers at the deadline and had a respectable finish, slashing .262/.308/.423 for a 96 wRC+, though the combined line between the two clubs resulted in a wRC+ of 72 for the year.
If the surgery puts Hernández in position to have better results going forward, that could be a noteworthy development for the free agent market. There’s a general dearth of impact position players, particularly in the middle infield. Hernández was set to be one of the most accomplished players available in that category, alongside options like Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield and Adam Frazier. If his two most recent seasons were dragged down by health issues, that will make his status in the months to come a development worth monitoring.
MLB Trade Rumors: Bringing You Independent Hot Stove News And Analysis For 18 Years
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That’s our entire writing team here at MLB Trade Rumors. October and November are big months for high-quality original work at MLBTR. We just completed Offseason Outlook posts for all 30 teams. We published Matt Swartz’s widely-used arbitration projections. And today, we unveiled our Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, complete with contract and team predictions and 20,000+ words of analysis.
There are long-term ups and downs with any business. 2023 has been a down year: our revenue is down over 23%, to be particular. MLBTR has historically been primarily ad-supported, and that will continue. But ads are not always a reliable source of revenue, which is why I launched our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription service during the pandemic in 2020.
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