Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Update
MLB Trade Rumors’ annual free agent prediction contest drew 6,135 entries this year, and as we hit Christmas Day, the leaderboard informs us of a five-way tie for first place. Vivek Patel, Tom Diesman, Alan Capellan, Michael Scriven, and Ryan Ohara each have correctly picked seven of the 19 top-50 free agents who have signed to date, based on our original Top 50 Free Agents list published on November 6. The leaders’ .368 average on their picks is sure to drop as the winter continues, yet there’s a chance the 2023-24 champ can remain ahead of last year’s pace, set by winner Steve Sacks and his .295 (13 of 44) average.
Thirty-nine entries are in a tie for sixth place, right behind the leaders with a .316 (6-for-19) average. This group includes MLBTR’s own Leo Morgenstern, who has burst onto the scene in his rookie year to thus far control the sub-contest between our site’s staffers. Morgenstern’s Julio Rodriguez-esque emergence has put him ahead Nick Deeds (4-for-19) and myself and Tim Dierkes (3-for-19).
Marc Narducci: My Hall Of Fame Ballot
Marc Narducci spent 37 years covering all sports for The Philadelphia Inquirer before retiring in July 2021. He covered everything from high school sports to the Phillies winning the World Series and the Eagles winning the Super Bowl. A lifelong southern New Jersey resident, he remains a freelance writer and broadcaster. Once again, Marc reached out to see if MLB Trade Rumors would be interested in publishing his Hall of Fame ballot. I am happy to do it and hope it can be an interesting topic of debate for our readers. Here’s Marc…
This was an extremely difficult baseball Hall of Fame ballot because it causes debate over those who prioritize longevity over others who place emphasis on shorter-term excellence.
Before going into the ballot, a little bit about the philosophy of this voter.
First off, I won’t criticize anybody’s ballot. There are many different opinions on what a Hall of Fame player should be and that is fine.
As stated last year at MLBtraderumors.com and in also in 2021, I have not voted for those associated with steroids.
As one can see from the comments sections, there are many of you who have disagreed and that’s fine. I’m not here to try to convince anybody to change his or her mind. This is just the way I feel, how the steroid era put such a stain on the game.
I have also not voted for Carlos Beltran, who admittedly was the mastermind of the 2017 Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal. Those actions cost him his job as a manager and for now, this vote.
Again, I can see people who think this is crazy to keep such an accomplished player off the ballot. I’m not here to attempt to convince anybody either way, just to say this is what went into my voting.
I don’t think all the Astros should be punished, but that’s another story for another day.
Now, for the ballot.
There are two holdovers who I voted for last year and we will start there.
Helton, now in his sixth year on the ballot, is close to the finish line. He received 72.2% of the votes. Just a refresher, a player needs 75% of the votes. For those who didn’t see last year’s story, we’ll reiterate his case.
The negative perception is that he was a product of playing his entire career at Coors Field. The splits were significant home and away.
Yet his .287/.386/.469 slash line on the road was impressive, but it did pale in comparison to his numbers at Coors – .345/441/.607.
His career line was .316/414/.539.
While the sabermetrics community may scoff at batting average, it takes a lot to hit .300 for a season, let alone a career. Last season just nine players with the required 502 plate appearance hit .300.
In 2000, Helton won a batting title hitting .372.
Here were his splits that season – home: .391/.484/.758. Away: .353/.441/633.
He was a first baseman who wasn’t known for his power, but he still hit 369 home runs and had 1,406 RBI, while playing all 17 seasons for the Rockies.
Helton was a five-time All-Star, a four-time Silver Slugger winner and a three-time Gold Glove recipient.
It’s more than enough to put him on this ballot.
Wagner is in his ninth year on the ballot and keeps moving closer. (How a person fares on other ballots doesn’t impact this vote, but it is good to note how close or far somebody is from being elected).
Wagner last year earned 68.1% of the votes.
The two knocks against Wagner are his low innings total and his postseason struggles.
Both are valid points.
Wagner pitched just 903 innings. His postseason production, even though it only consisted of 11 1/3 innings over 14 appearances, was poor to say the least. He had a 10.03 ERA, although Wagne did convert all three save opportunities.
His positives outweigh the negatives.
In looking for a HOF player, I like to see excellence. Wagner’s 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings (minimum of 750 innings pitched) is the best in MLB history.
Wagner had 422 saves, and an impressive save percentage (86%). His career 2.31 ERA and 187 ERA+ are second best among HOF relievers. Only Mariano Rivera (2.21 ERA, and 205 ERA+) is better in both categories.
The newcomers
There won’t be much convincing to do here. Beltre’s career 93.5 rWAR is surpassed by just two HOF third basemen – Mike Schmidt (106.8) and Eddie Matthews (96.0).
Here were Beltre’s career numbers – .286/339/.480 for his career with 3,166 hits, 477 home runs, 1707 RBI and a 116 OPS+. One thing that is interesting is that he was just a four-time All-Star. He won five Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers and was a Top 10 MVP finisher six times.
The only question with Beltre is whether he will be a unanimous choice.
Here is where the debate starts. The knock against Mauer is that while he was an excellent catcher, he only played the position for a decade. Due to concussions from catching, he moved to first base for the final five seasons. He caught 70 or more games eight times. In total he caught 921 games, making 885 starts as a catcher.
In those 10 seasons he hit .323/405/.469 with a 135 OPS+.
When somebody does something historical, the feeling here is that it should add to his HOF candidacy. Mauer is the only catcher to win three batting titles, in 2006, 2008 and 2009. In those three years, he caught 120, 139 and 109 games respectively. He batted .347 in 2006, .328 in 2008 and .365 in 2009.
During those first 10 seasons, he was a six-time All-Star, won an MVP (in 2009) and finished in the Top 10 four times. Mauer also earned five Silver Slugger awards and three Gold Gloves.
Is that enough production in a decade of work?
Due to the demands of the position, we think so.
Plus, how much did the toll of catching and the injuries contribute to the decline after he switched positions?
His final five seasons were well below HOF worthy – .278/.359/.388 with a 105 OPS+. Never a big home run hitter, he hit 38 of his career 143 home runs in the final five seasons.
Still, even with the decline, here are his career statistics – .306/.388/.439 with a 124 OPS+.
Only eight HOF catchers have a higher career rWAR than Mauer (55.2).
He certainly did enough in his years as a catcher to make this ballot.
The longevity issue is what hurts Utley. Utley had a five-year stretch that was definitely HOF standard. From 2005-2009, he hit .301/.388/535 and averaged 29.2 home runs. 110.6 runs, 101.4 RBI, 151 games and 675 plate appearances. His fWAR average for those five years was an astonishing 7.7.
During this span Utley earned four of his six All-Star appearances.
The Phillies made the playoffs the final three of those seasons, winning the World Series in 2008 and losing to the NY Yankees in the 2009 World Series. Utley hit five home runs in the 2009 series, which is tied for the most in MLB history. Reggie Jackson in 1977 and George Springer in 2017 also hit five.
He had other strong seasons, but none to match this five-year average.
His career numbers, especially for a second baseman were strong – .275/.358/.465 and a 117 OPS+. He had 1,103 runs and 1,025 RBI. Will the fact that he had fewer than 2,000 hits (1,885) hurt Utley?
Probably in the eyes of some, but he ended up being a six-time All-Star and earning four Silver Slugger Awards.
Only 10 HOF second basemen have a higher rWAR than Utley (64.5). Only four HOF second basemen have more home runs than Utley (259).
Injuries caught up to Utley, but he was more than a five-year wonder. Even after 2009, he would make two other All-Star teams and from 2010-2014 had an average OPS+ of 116.
Utley played the game hard, was a quiet leader of during the greatest run in Phillies history when they qualified for the playoffs five consecutive seasons 2007-2011.
It is understandable for those who feel he didn’t perform at a top level long enough, but he did enough to get on this ballot.
New York Mets third baseman David Wright was on a HOF trajectory before spinal stenosis ended his career. Wright’s last full-time year was his age-31 season in 2014.
His counting stats, which included 1,777 career hits and 242 home runs, will be used against him, but Wright had an impressive nine-year peak, where he earned seven All-Star berths. The seven all-star games matched last year’s HOF inductee Scott Rolen.
From 2005-2013, Wright hit .302/.384./.505 with a 138 OPS+. Wright averaged 23 home runs, 90 runs and 93 RBI. During this time, he won two Gold Gloves, two Silver Slugger awards, and finished in the Top 10 in MVP voting four times. After this period, he would play just one more full season, 2014 when the decline began.
His final career numbers were .296/376/.491 and a 133 OPS+. Only seven HOF third baseman have a higher OPS+ than Wright.
Should Wright be penalized for suffering what turned out to be a career-ending injury, that ended his full-time status after his age 31 season?
It can be argued that durability is part of being a HOF player and that is a good case, but Wright was the face of the franchise, a perennial All-Star and a strong two-way performer.
We can see both sides of this argument, just as we can for Utley and to a degree Mauer, but these players did enough to make it onto this ballot, even if their excellence was shorter than some would like.
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Latest On Shohei Ohtani
1:32PM: The numbers continue to escalate for Ohtani, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that “Ohtani is believed to already have received multiple bids well north of $500MM, and some speculate he could even wind up as baseball’s first $600MM man.”
11:49AM: Shohei Ohtani‘s free agent sweepstakes have been largely shrouded in mystery, as Ohtani and agent Nez Balelo have specifically prioritized a low profile approach to perhaps the most high-profile free agency in baseball history. As such, there has been a lot of speculation and relatively little facts about Ohtani’s market, though there are some indications that the two-time AL MVP might be coming somewhat closer to a decision.
MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link) hears from a source that Ohtani “is likely to” make his choice within the week, though this timeline could indicate that the news could come after the Winter Meetings have concluded. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has a slightly different timeline, indicating that Ohtani will make his choice “certainly before the Christmas holidays” but also more than a week from now, so roughly mid-December.
It isn’t a stretch to say that whenever Ohtani does make the call, it will automatically become the most pivotal day of the offseason calendar. Ohtani is widely expected to sign the largest contract in baseball history, and thus his free agency has to some extent held up the market as a whole. Such known suitors as the Angels, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Giants, and Cubs have largely held off on any other major business until they know if they’ll be adding a $500MM+ Ohtani contract to their long-term payroll plans. As such, several top players have yet to make their own free agent decisions, waiting for these big-spending potential suitors to more fully engage in the rest of the market — and possibly be more eager to spend elsewhere after missing out on Ohtani.
Since it’s only December 3, it’s worth reminding that the offseason isn’t even at the halfway point yet, and Ohtani is hardly taking any sort of unusually long time in deciding on his next team. Given the sport-altering amounts of money involved and how any free agent decision big or small is a life-changing decision for a player, it would’ve been more surprising if Ohtani had already made his choice this relatively early into the winter.
So little is known about Ohtani’s thought process that it is hard to say whether or not the aforementioned five teams (or any possible mystery teams) could be true finalists. However, the last few days has seen the Red Sox, Rangers, and Mets reportedly all step back from the Ohtani sweepstakes in some sense, perhaps indicating that the bidding has either gotten too high, or that Ohtani’s camp has given some indication that these three clubs are no longer in consideration.
Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Now Available
6,135 people submitted entries in MLBTR’s annual free agent prediction contest! The contest leaderboard is now available. Tom Diesman is currently in the lead with an impressive five correct picks for the seven top 50 free agents who have signed so far. Tom’s lofty .714 contest batting average surely won’t last, but he’s off to a blazing start having nailed the destinations of Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Reynaldo Lopez, and Nick Martinez. Last year, Steve Sacks won the contest with a .295 average (13 of 44).
MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list was originally published on November 6th. You can check that out here.
Several Teams Interested In Vladimir Gutierrez
Free agent right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez has several teams interested in him, reports Francys Romero.
Gutierrez, now 28, was once a high-profile prospect that signed with the Reds after he defected from his native Cuba. The club gave him a bonus of $4.75MM but effectively had to pay double under the old bonus system, a 100% tax for going over their limit. That meant they paid $9.5MM to get Gutierrez into the system.
As he worked his way up the minors, he became a notable prospect in their system, with Baseball America ranking him one of the 10 best Reds’ prospects in three straight years from 2017 to 2019. His stock has dimmed since then, however. In 2020, before he had reached the majors, he received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance. He was nonetheless added to the club’s 40-man roster to keep him out of that year’s Rule 5 draft. He went on to appear in 32 games over the 2021 and 2022 seasons but required Tommy John surgery in July of 2022. He made five minor league appearances late in 2023 as part of a rehab assignment but was still on the IL at season’s end.
He was set to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a modest bump to $1MM. That’s barely above the major league minimum salary, which will be $740K in 2024. But the Reds evidently didn’t want to give him that raise, as he was outrighted off the roster in October. Now he’ll be looking to jump to a new organization for the first time in his career.
He once looked like a potentially useful rotation piece, making 22 starts for the Reds in 2021 when he was just 25 years old, posting a 4.74 earned run average. His 17.7% strikeout rate was subpar but his 9.3% walk rate and 43.4% ground ball rate were around league average. Unfortunately, his results were rough in 2022, as his ERA jumped to 7.61 before he went under the knife. During his brief rehab assignment in 2023, he struck out 25.9% of batters faced but also showed plenty of rust with a 22.2% walk rate.
Now a free agent, Gutierrez would be a low-cost project for any club that signs him. He still has a couple of option years, meaning he could be kept in the minors as a depth piece by any club that gave him a roster spot. He’s also shy of three years of service time, meaning he could potentially be retained for future seasons via arbitration if he is able to get into good form.
All reporting indicates the demand for starting pitching is incredibly high this offseason and some clubs will inevitably miss out on the costlier free agents, which will leave them looking for cheaper options. Even big spending clubs needs to have depth pieces, which could give Gutierrez widespread appeal, given his options and cheap club control.
Multiple Clubs Interested In Noah Syndergaard
Free agent right-hander Noah Syndergaard is reportedly drawing interest from multiple clubs. In an appearance on Foul Territory, Robert Murray of FanSided relayed that teams are looking at the righty as a bounceback candidate and hoping for a buy-low opportunity.
It’s understandable why clubs would consider such a move but the reason that Syndergaard is available in a buy-low situation is that his 2023 was so dismal. He signed a one-year, $13MM deal with the Dodgers but posted an earned run average of 7.16 in his 12 starts for that club. He was flipped to the Guardians at the deadline in a swap of struggling players, with Amed Rosario going to the Dodgers. Syndergaard took the ball six times for the Guards with slightly better results, as his ERA was 5.40 in those. But he was nonetheless designated for assignment and released at the end of August. He didn’t sign anywhere else for the final month of the season.
Despite that rough campaign, Syndergaard might be a beneficiary of the robust market for starting pitchers, as various reports suggest that the demand for rotation help is incredibly high. Aaron Nola got a hefty $172MM guarantee over seven years to return to the Phillies. But even Lance Lynn, who was coming off a very poor season, received a guarantee of $11MM on a one-year deal with the Cardinals.
That perhaps gives some hope to Syndergaard, but on the other hand, his strong results are now pretty far in the past. Lynn had a 5.73 ERA in 2023 while allowing 44 home runs but he still struck out 23.6% of batters. He also had a much more palatable ERA of 3.99 in 2022 with a 24.2% strikeout rate. Despite his struggles this year, there are at least some encouraging things under the hood.
It’s hard to say the same for Syndergaard, who struck out just 14.3% of batters faced in 2023. Like Lynn, his ERA was much better in 2022, coming in at 3.94. But he did that despite striking out just 16.8% of opponents in that season. He missed all of 2020 and most of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery so a bit of rust was to be expected but he’s yet to show signs of returning anywhere near his pre-surgery form.
From 2015 to 2019, he posted a 3.31 ERA over 716 innings. In the process, he struck out 26.4% of batters faced, walked just 5.7% and kept 49.1% of balls in play on the ground. Prior to the surgery, his four-seam fastball and sinker each average between 97 and 99 mph but the past two years have seen him average in the 92-94 mph range. His slider averaged 92-93 mph before he went under the knife but he’s been around 85 mph since. Those diminished weapons have naturally reduced his ability to punch out big league hitters and he’s now had four straight years of either being injured or posting middling results.
Now 31, it’s fair to wonder if there’s a path to turn things around. The Dodgers and Guardians are two organizations with strong reputations for getting the most out of pitchers but each gave up on Syndergaard last year. Though if the market for starters is as strong as the reporting indicates, the contracts for the top guys will be wild and there figures to be strong competition for even mid-rotation arms and back-end guys. More than half the league has reportedly checked in on Seth Lugo while, as mentioned, Lynn got an eight-figure guarantee coming off a nightmare season. Perhaps that will lead some club to taking a flier on Syndergaard and hoping for the best.
Seth Lugo Drawing Widespread Interest
Multiple reports have indicated that the demand for starting pitching is huge this offseason and one player that could benefit is right-hander Seth Lugo. In an appearance on Foul Territory, Robert Murray of FanSided reports that Lugo’s market is extensive and “more than half the league” has checked in on him.
Lugo, 34, spent most of his career in the bullpen with the Mets but reached free agency last winter and drew plenty of interest from clubs who thought he could return to the rotation, as he had done years before. The Padres were ultimately the one to take a chance on Lugo, signing him to a two-year, $15MM deal with an opt-out opportunity midway through.
The experiment worked quite well, as Lugo was ultimately able to throw 146 1/3 innings over 26 starts. He missed about a month due to a calf strain, but apart from that, the larger workload didn’t seem to impact his results. He posted an earned run average of 3.57, striking out 23.2% of batters, limiting walks to a 6% rate and keeping 45.2% of balls in play on the ground.
Now that he has proven himself capable of filling a starting role, his market should be even stronger this offseason than it was a year ago, making it an easy decision for him to opt out and retry free agency. Murray notes that Lugo’s market is vast and that he would not be surprised to see Lugo get a three- or four-year deal. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Lugo for a three-year, $42MM pact, which would be $14MM per year.
Given his age, it would be hard for Lugo to go too far beyond that. But that ceiling is perhaps why so many clubs are interested. Aaron Nola already secured himself a seven-year, $172MM deal to return to the Phillies and nine-figure deals should also be available for guys like Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jordan Montgomery. The appetite for starting pitching is high but not every club will be able or willing to pay those kinds of prices, leaving them looking to guys like Lugo.
To this point in the offseason, Lugo has been specifically linked to the Tigers but it seems his market is far wider than that. He will likely require a modest average annual value, relative to some of the other free agents, which makes him a speculative fit for a far greater number of clubs. Even mid- or small-market teams need to give out eight-figure contracts from time to time and the widespread demand should help Lugo earn a much greater guarantee than he got a year ago. It was recently reported that nearly half the league had checked in on Yamamoto, but he is widely expected to get $200MM or more. Since Lugo is perhaps looking at getting a quarter of that, it stands to reason that he has even more clubs calling him up.
Pham: Interest From Around 10 Teams In Free Agency
Tommy Pham is on the open market for a third consecutive season. The veteran outfielder is in a better spot than he had been from 2021-22, as he’s coming arguably his best year since 2019.
In an appearance on the New York’s Post podcast with Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman, Pham said his representatives at Vayner Sports have had conversations with roughly 10 teams. While he said he has yet to receive an official offer, Pham indicated that interest is far more robust than it was last offseason. The righty-hitting outfielder told Heyman and Sherman that he heard from just three teams before he signed a $6MM guarantee with the Mets in the middle of January.
Pham unsurprisingly didn’t name any of the clubs that have checked in. He suggested he’s seeking an opportunity to continue playing on an everyday basis. “I don’t view myself as a platoon player,” he replied when asked about his free agent priorities. “I’m not comfortable going into a situation where they’re saying ‘hey, you’re only going to play against lefties.’ I still want to play every day. That’s most important to me. Then winning, of course.”
Landing a job as a team’s primary left fielder seems attainable after Pham’s solid performance in 2023. He hit .256/.328/.446 with 16 home runs through 481 plate appearances. As he has throughout his career, he posted strong exit velocities. Pham’s respective 9.8% walk rate and 22% strikeout percentage weren’t far off the league averages. He also stole 22 bases in 25 attempts and rated as a neutral corner outfield defender.
Pham’s offensive production was balanced. He hit for more power against left-handed pitching but had a higher batting average and on-base mark against same-handed arms. His .262/.332/.435 slash versus righties and .245/.322/.465 showing against southpaws aren’t that dissimilar. Pham’s production was concentrated more heavily early in the season. He hit .268/.348/.472 for the Mets before running a .241/.304/.415 line upon being dealt to the Diamondbacks on deadline day. Pham ran a .279/.297/.475 slash over 16 postseason contests during the Snakes’ run to the World Series.
Turning 36 in March, the 10-year MLB veteran may again be limited to one-year offers. He should at least find a loftier guarantee than last year’s $6MM figure and a two-year pact isn’t entirely implausible. Pham’s old teams in Queens and Arizona each have questions about their left field situations. The Braves, Nationals, Twins, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Mariners and Yankees are among other speculative suitors for corner outfield help.