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Nationals To Sign Brad Hand

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The Nationals are in agreement on a one-year contract with lefty reliever Brad Hand that guarantees him $10.5MM, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link) was first to report the sides were closing in on a one-year deal. The contract does not contain any option years or incentives, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter).

Hand, 30, has been one of the league’s best relievers over the past five seasons. He broke out with the Padres in 2016 immediately after being claimed off waivers from the Marlins. San Diego traded him to the Indians midway through the 2018 season, where he continued to shine. In two-plus seasons in Cleveland, Hand pitched to a 2.78 ERA over 107 relief innings with a stellar combination of strikeouts (34.8%) and walks (7.9%).

Despite that consistent run of success, the Indians made the decision to decline a $10MM option on Hand’s services for 2021 after last season. Before paying Hand a $1MM buyout, Cleveland placed him on outright waivers in the hope another club would claim him and exercise the option (thus saving them the cost of the buyout). All thirty teams passed on the opportunity to bring in Hand at that $10MM price point.

In the long run, though, Hand makes out a bit better than he would have had Cleveland (or any other team) simply exercised the option. In addition to picking up the aforementioned buyout money, Hand winds up guaranteed an extra $500K in 2021 salary. Of course, teams have a better understanding of their payroll outlooks now than they did last October. The free agent market, while extremely slow, has also been a bit more favorable than many expected on the heels of a 2020 season without gate revenue.

While Hand’s results haven’t tailed off at all, his velocity has fallen rather precipitously over the past couple seasons. Hand averaged a solid 93.8 MPH on his fastball as recently as 2018. That mark fell to 92.7 MPH the following season and was down to 91.4 MPH last year. His swinging strike rate, too, was down notably in 2020. From 2016-19, Hand reliably got whiffs on around 13% of his pitches each season. Last year, that rate was down to a slightly below-average 10.5%.

Despite Hand’s dip in velocity, it’s easy to see the appeal for Washington. The Nationals’ bullpen has been a persistent problem for years. Last season was no exception, as Washington relievers ranked 23rd in the league in ERA (4.68) and 22nd in SIERA (4.46). Longtime closer Sean Doolittle is now a free agent, leaving very little in the way of proven left-handed relievers on the roster. It remains to be seen whether Hand will take over the ninth inning, as he generally had in Cleveland, or if manager Dave Martinez plans to use Hand in high-leverage spots in the middle innings and let Daniel Hudson close.

After signing Hand, Washington’s projected payroll is up to $199MM, per Roster Resource. That’s a $12MM increase over last season’s figure (prior to prorating), so it’s not clear whether or to what extent ownership will greenlight further spending. The Nationals’ luxury tax ledger sits just below $196MM, Roster Resource estimates, $14MM shy of the first tax threshold.

Minor Transactions: 1/23/21

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The latest minor moves from around the game…

  • Former Nationals farmhand Drew Ward has signed a minor league deal with the Tigers, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter). The 26-year-old was a third round pick by the Nats back in 2013. He posted a 105 wRC+ in Triple-A and 139 wRC+ in Double-A during the 2019 season for the Nats. He consistently posted solid offensive numbers on his march through the Nats’ system, though his walk rate fell below average in 2019 as his strikeout rate shot up close to an unsightly 40 percent. The lefty bat can play both infield corners and serve as depth in that regard for the Tigers. It should be noted that while Ward’s walk rate and strikeout rate worsened in 2019, Ward’s isolated power numbers proved the best of his young career. If an approach shift resulted in selling out for power more often than not, Ward at least registered a .232 ISO across 205 plate appearances in Double-A and .270 ISO in 117 Triple-A plate appearances. Not to mention, Ward slashed a robust .335/.407/.633 with a 25.6 percent strikeout rate and 9.3 percent walk rate while playing Indy ball in 2020.

Latest On Brad Hand

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TODAY: The market for Hand seems to be shaping up. Hand could decide on his new team as early as this weekend, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link) hears from several teams who “have been told that Hand wants to make a decision soon.”

Specifically, the Angels, Dodgers, Mets, and Jays are all at least in the conversation for Hand, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Heyman also adds the Nationals as the newest team to emerge as a potential suitor. If the Nationals can find the money for Hand, he could serve as a replacement for free-agent Sean Doolittle. As things stand now, the Nats are without a proven southpaw in the pen, with non-roster invitee Luis Avilan as the only lefty on the 40-man roster besides rookies Sam Clay, Seth Romero, and Ben Braymer.

JANUARY 20: Free-agent reliever Brad Hand has received interest from several teams since Cleveland unexpectedly cut ties with him in late October. The Blue Jays are among the clubs that have been linked to Hand, and Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that “they’ve had an offer out to” the three-time All-Star.

Hand would be the third noteworthy addition of the offseason for the Blue Jays’ bullpen, which has already landed Kirby Yates (one of Hand’s ex-Padres teammates) and Tyler Chatwood this week. Yates looks like a candidate to close for the Blue Jays in 2021, but that job could go to Hand if the team signs him. Despite losing almost 2 mph on his fastball, Hand posted his latest in a long line of productive seasons in 2020, as the 30-year-old registered a sparkling 2.05 ERA/2.80 SIERA in 22 innings. Hand also converted all 16 of his save opportunities and ranked 13th among relievers in K-BB percentage (29.1).

Toronto and others have new competition for Hand in the Angels, who “have emerged as a possibility” to sign him, Robert Murray of FanSided tweets. He would be another major late-game acquisition for a Halos club that swung a trade with the Reds earlier this offseason for right-hander Raisel Iglesias and picked up southpaw Alex Claudio in free agency. The Angels could still use another lefty for their righty-heavy relief corps, though, and Hand may be their answer.

Orioles Notes: Marlins, Santander, Mancini, Deferrals, MASN

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The Marlins have had some trade discussions with the Orioles about outfielder Anthony Santander, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports (Twitter link).  The depth of these talks isn’t known, Kubatko notes, as it could have been due diligence on the Marlins’ part rather than a sign that Santander could be heading to Miami or anywhere.

Santander enjoyed something of a breakout performance during the abbreviated 2020 season, hitting .261/.315/.575 with 11 home runs over 165 plate appearances before an oblique injury ended his season on September 4.  A look at the advanced metrics reveals some interesting details, as Santander didn’t make much hard contact or take many walks, but he also didn’t get much batted-ball luck in the form of a .248 BABIP.

Still, between some strong right field defense and 31 homers in 570 PA since the start of the 2019 season, Santander has made himself a key part of Baltimore’s rebuilding effort.  He turned 26 last October and is controlled through the 2024 season, as Santander is a Super Two player and only became arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter.  (The two sides are scheduled for a hearing to determine Santander’s 2021 salary, with the outfielder looking for $2.475MM and the Orioles offering $2.1MM.)

This combination of talent and cost-effective team control would make Santander an attractive trade possibility for many teams, but particularly a Marlins club that is looking to both continue contending for the postseason without too much of a budget stretch.  The switch-hitting Santander would also help balance out a Miami lineup heavy on right-handed batters.  Garrett Cooper is currently slated to handle right field for the Marlins, but the team would have plenty of room to find at-bats for everyone if the DH returned to the National League in 2021.  Since Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson are both free agents after the season, Santander would also be a longer-term outfield addition that could fill the void if either player departed.

Whether the Orioles see Santander as a long-term piece is another intriguing element, as a case could be made that the O’s should try to sell high on Santander now (or perhaps before the 2021 trade deadline) if they don’t think he’ll still be a prime contributor by the time Baltimore is ready to contend.  Given that the Orioles still have a long ways to go in their rebuild, they might not be ready to compete by 2024, Santander’s age-29 season and his last under team control.

The Orioles’ financial situation adds another wrinkle, as The Athletic’s Dan Connelly reports that the team offered salary deferrals to Santander and Trey Mancini when talking to both players about their 2021 contracts.  Both turned down the offers, which would have seen around 25% of their salary pushed ahead to 2022 or 2023.  Mancini ended up avoiding arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $4.75MM deal.

Deferrals are a common element of contract negotiations, yet the idea of deferring money on a one-year arbitration contract was unheard of among “multiple agents and baseball arbitration experts…contacted for this story,” Connolly writes.  While the deferral offers could have just been some creativity on the part of GM Mike Elias, Connolly also wonders if the offers were indicative of how little the Orioles might have to spend in the wake of 2020’s revenue losses.  If this is the case, the O’s might look to try and deal Santander, perhaps attaching him to a larger contract (i.e. Alex Cobb and his $15MM salary) to clear as much money as possible off the books.

In other revenue news, The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli reports that the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (owned by both the Orioles and the Nationals) has made significant cuts, including several prominent on-air personalities.  “This is a cash-flow problem, and there’s apparently not a lot of it,” a source said.  Changes include the reduction of the pre-game and post-game shows from 30 to 15 minutes, with the broadcasters at the ballpark handling these shows rather than studio hosts and analysts.  If the Orioles or Nationals want to continue the usual pre-game and post-game shows, MASN has informed the teams that they will have to fund them, rather than the network.

Nationals Re-Sign Ryan Zimmerman

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TODAY: The Nats officially announced Zimmerman’s return.   USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that Zimmerman’s contract contains a full no-trade clause.

JANUARY 22: The Nationals are bringing back longtime cornerstone Ryan Zimmerman on a one-year deal worth $1MM, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). Zimmerman opted out of the 2020 season but said last month that he hoped to play again in 2021. The Washington Post’s Barry Svrluga adds that Zimmerman’s deal is still pending a physical and carries incentives to boost his that affordable base salary. Zimmerman is a client of CAA Sports.

Zimmerman, who turned 36 in September, has been a member of the Nats organization since they took him fourth overall in the 2005 draft. He was the first pick the franchise made after relocating from Montreal, and Zimmerman has certainly lived up to the selection. Zimmerman debuted in his draft year and has since put together a .279/.343/.475 line with 270 home runs in 7129 plate appearances. The former third baseman (who’s now a first baseman) also has a pair of All-Star nods on his resume and was part of the Nationals’ only World Series-winning team in 2019.

At present, there’s no path to everyday at-bats for “Mr. National,” given the team’s December acquisition of Josh Bell and the current lack of a universal designated hitter. Zimmerman, though, could certainly form a platoon with the switch-hitting Bell, who has historically been much better from the left side of the dish. Bell is a career .271/.360/.485 hitter as a lefty but just a .232/.315/.410 batter from the right side of the dish. Zimmerman, meanwhile, has clobbered lefties throughout his 15-year MLB career: .311/.390/.527.

That said, many still expect that MLB and the MLBPA will agree to keep the designated hitter in the National League between now and Opening Day, which would obviously open up more at-bats for Zimmerman, be it as a DH himself or at first base while the defensively challenged Bell slides into the DH spot.

Nationals, Hernan Perez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Nationals and veteran utilityman Hernan Perez are in agreement on a minor league deal that contains an invitation to Major League Spring Training, reports Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base (Twitter link). He’s repped by Octagon.

Perez, 29, spent the 2020 season in the Cubs organization but appeared in only three games and tallied just six plate appearances. Prior to that brief stint in Chicago, Perez was an oft-used utility piece with the Brewers from 2015-19, tallying 1706 plate appearances and batting .258/.288/.400.

Perez’s best season came back in 2016, when he appeared in 123 games and saw semi-regular playing time. Over 430 plate appearances, he slashed .272/.302/.428 with 13 home runs and a career-best 34 stolen bases. Perez slugged 14 long balls in 458 plate appearances the following year but saw all of his rate stats and his stolen-base total (just 13) go in the wrong direction.

The only position that Perez hasn’t played in the Majors is catcher. He’s even pitched 7 1/3 innings (six runs on 10 hits and four walks with three strikeouts), although the bulk of his work has come at third base (1241 innings), second base (966 innings) and in the outfield corners (990 innings combined). A right-handed hitter, Perez has a good bit more power against lefties but carries a sub-.300 OBP regardless of pitcher handedness. On-base shortcomings notwithstanding, he’s a versatile defender with a bit of pop in his bat and some speed, making him a decent flier for a club like the Nats that could use some depth on its bench.

Nationals Interested In Jeremy Jeffress

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  • MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that Jeremy Jeffress is on the radar of several clubs, including the Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Nationals and Blue Jays. It’s a wide field, though the level of interest of each team surely varies. The 33-year-old Jeffress was dominant back in 2018 but hasn’t replicated that form since. He did post an aesthetically pleasing 1.54 ERA and 54.4 percent grounder rate in 23 1/3 innings with the Cubs last year, but the rest of his numbers were something of a mess. Jeffress’ 13.6 percent walk rate was his worst since establishing himself as a consistent presence in MLB bullpens, while his 19.3 percent strikeout rate was 10 percent lower than his 29.8 percent clip from that brilliant 2018 campaign. Last year also saw Jeffress post career-worsts in average fastball velocity (93.3 mph), average exit velocity (89.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (45.6 percent). If Jeffress can rediscover his ’18 form, he’d be a premium late-inning option, but last year’s ERA was propped up by a .161 average on balls in play that is miles south of his career .308 mark.

Nationals To Sign Jon Lester

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10:03pm: Lester will earn $5MM in 2021, according to Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com, who reports there is a mutual option for 2022.

7:31pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today offers different information, tweeting that this will be a one-year pact with no options.

7:13pm: The Nationals have reached a one-year agreement with Lester, pending a physical, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. The contract includes a mutual option.

5:55pm: Lester and the Nats are closing in on a deal, Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times reports.

5:24pm: The Nationals and free-agent left-hander Jon Lester are “in talks,” Ken Rosenthal and Jon Greenberg of The Athletic report. It’s unclear whether the Nats and Lester, an ACES client, are close to an agreement.

Washington would be the fourth organization for Lester, a 37-year-old who was previously with the Red Sox, Athletics and Cubs. Lester was especially impactful as a member of the Sox and Cubs, with whom he combined to win three World Series championships and pick up five All-Star appearances. Lester spent the previous six seasons in Chicago, where he largely lived up to the $155MM deal he signed before 2015, but his production fell off during his last two years in their uniform. After he combined for a 4.64 ERA/4.62 SIERA in 232 2/3 innings during that span, the Cubs let Lester reach free agency earlier this winter, turning down his $25MM option for next season in favor of a $10MM buyout.

While Lester expressed interest in remaining with the Cubs after they allowed him to become a free agent, there haven’t been reports of serious talks between him and the team since then. That could help pave the way for Lester to head to Washington, which is led by manager Dave Martinez, who was formerly the Cubs’ bench coach.

Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo said earlier in the offseason he wanted to add a starter to the back of the team’s rotation, where Lester will slot in if he joins the team. The Nats have an enviable top three in Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, but the rest of their rotation looks somewhat questionable with Joe Ross, Erick Fedde and Austin Voth as possibilities to earn roles in 2021. Granted, after posting a 5.16 ERA/5.02 SIERA over 61 frames last year, Lester might not prove to be part of the solution, but the Nats may count on the veteran innings eater to competently fill a spot in their staff.

Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Trea Turner, Juan Soto

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5:02pm: Washington has also settled with outfielder Juan Soto, who will earn $8.5MM, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets. The 22-year-old phenom still has three more seasons of control left after 2021.

4:33pm: The Nationals and star shortstop Trea Turner have agreed to a $13MM salary for next season, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com was among those to report. Turner is a client of CAA Sports.

This settlement falls somewhere in the middle of MLBTR’s $9.4MM to $16.6MM arbitration projection for Turner, who has been stellar for the Nationals dating back to 2016. Last year may have been Turner’s best season yet, as the speedster batted .335/.394/.588 with 12 home runs and a dozen stolen bases in 259 plate appearances. The 27-year-old finished fourth among National League position players in fWAR (2.7) and seventh in wRC+ (157).

Turner is likely to stay in Washington for at least another couple of seasons, as he has another year of arb control left after 2021. However, based on the impact Turner has made in their uniform, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Nationals attempt to extend him before he’s eligible for free agency.

Nationals, Josh Bell Avoid Arbitration

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The Nationals and newly-acquired first baseman Josh Bell avoided arbitration today, coming to an agreement on a one-year, $6.3MM contract, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Bell made $4.8MM in 2020, his first season of arbitration eligibility. The Scott Boras client will be a free agent following the 2022 season.

Our initial projections had Bell set to make between $5.1MM and  $7.2MM through arbitration, so the Nationals might have earned themselves a little extra spending money by coming to an early accord. Regardless, Bell expects to have a better year in 2021 after a relatively rough campaign in the truncated 2020 season.

Even after slashing .226/.305/.364 in 223 plate appearances this year, Bell still owns a career line of .261/.349/.466. A strikeout rate of 26.5 percent was particularly high compared to his career average of 19.0 percent. Assuming a regression to his career means, Bell should provide the Nats with efficient production in 2021 given his salary. Besides, with Juan Soto and Kyle Schwarber figuring to hit somewhere close and perhaps on either side of Bell in Washington’s lineup, Bell should benefit from the ambient potency.

Soto and Trea Turner represent the Nationals only remaining arbitration cases.

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