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Camp Battles: Nationals’ No. 5 Starter

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When it comes to the Nationals’ rotation, this much is a near certainty: If healthy, it should be among the game’s premier starting staffs in 2020. That was the case last year when Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez combined for 123 regular-season starts of high-end production to help the team to a playoff berth. Those four were also important contributors during the Nationals’ first-ever run to a World Series championship in the fall, and all of them are set to reprise their roles in the club’s staff this season. The last position in the starting five is up for grabs, though, and it’s a three-way battle to win the spot. Two of those players are out of minor league options, meaning one of the runners-up could end up in a different organization soon if he doesn’t at least land in the Nationals’ bullpen. Here’s a look at the contenders…

  • Joe Ross, RHP (out of options): Ross delivered terrific results as a member of the Nationals’ rotation from 2015-16, but injuries helped cut him down in the ensuing two seasons. He did amass 64 innings last regular season, though most of that work came from the bullpen, and Ross wound up with an unspectacular 5.48 ERA/4.59 FIP. However, as MLBTR’s TC Zencka pointed out over the weekend, Ross was far more impressive in his nine starts than during his 18 relief appearances. Despite just 7.66 K/9 against 4.43 BB/9 in a starting role, the 26-year-old pitched to a stingy 3.02 ERA (with a solid 3.86 FIP) in 44 2/3 innings. For what it’s worth, Ross has picked up where he left off this spring, having yielded two earned runs on four hits and four walks (three strikeouts) over 7 1/3 frames.
  • Erick Fedde, RHP (one option remaining): Fedde totaled the fifth-most starts (12) among Nationals last year, but the results weren’t all that pleasing. He logged a 4.50 ERA/5.34 FIP with 4.73 K/9 and 3.81 BB/9 across 78 frames. That continued a trend of unspectacular major league production for Fedde, Washington’s first-round pick in 2014. Fedde has shown a penchant for inducing ground balls (52.8 percent), though, and has joined Ross in tossing 7 1/3 effective innings this spring. So far, the 27-year-old has given up two earned runs on five hits and four walks (seven strikeouts). But the fact that Fedde has an option left may not do him any favors in the fight for a roster spot in D.C.
  • Austin Voth, RHP (out of options): Voth, 27, was quietly effective out of Washington’s rotation in 2019, when he recorded a 3.30 ERA/3.79 FIP and excellent strikeout/walk numbers (9.07 K/9, 2.68 BB/9). An uptick in velocity helped – after averaging 91.4 mph on his fastball the previous year, the mean climbed to 92.8, helping lead to an almost 5 percent increase in swinging-strike rate. Likewise, Voth held his own over 61 1/3 innings in Triple-A ball, where he notched a 4.40 ERA/3.85 FIP, struck out just under 10 hitters per nine and only walked a bit more than two. And Voth has continued to impress this spring, with one run allowed, six strikeouts and one walk through seven frames.

Minor Signings: Barnes, Peterson, Stassi, Webster

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Here are the latest minor signings of note from around the game, courtesy of Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America …

  • The Orioles inked righty Danny Barnes. He’s a 30-year-old reliever who has spent his entire career to date in the Blue Jays organization. Barnes saw only limited action last season but was in the majors for each of the three prior campaigns. In 120 2/3 career frames at the game’s highest level, he carries a 4.33 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9.
  • Outfielder Dustin Peterson has joined the Angels. Still just 25 years of age, Peterson has a bit of MLB experience but has spent most of his time in recent seasons in the upper minors. The former second-round pick carries a .267/.320/.389 batting line in 1,107 total plate appearances at Triple-A.
  • The Athletics have signed first baseman/outfielder Brock Stassi. He got a shot in a reserve role with the Phillies in 2017 but wasn’t able to take advantage, slashing just .167/.278/.295 in ninety plate appearances. Stassi has kicked around the indy ranks, Mexican League, and upper minors since.
  • Former MLB righty Allen Webster is on board with the Nationals. He’ll be looking to crack the majors for the third-straight season at 30 years of age. The former top prospect has never managed to carve out a steady role at the game’s highest level, but he has registered 134 1/3 total innings, working to a cumulative 6.03 ERA.

Nationals Renew Juan Soto’s 2020 Contract

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The Nationals have renewed Juan Soto’s contract and will pay the outfielder $629.4K in 2020, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link).  The two sides were unable to agree on a salary for 2020, and thus the Nationals simply set their own figure for Soto’s contract in the coming season, as is the team’s right since Soto is a pre-arbitration player.

Each club has its own methodology for determining how much beyond the $563.5K minimum salary pre-arb players can earn, usually based on some type of formula that assigns extra money for service time and/or significant achievements.  Pre-arbitration players can’t really negotiate since the club controls their rights, so the large majority of pre-arb players simply agree to whatever figure is offered.  Some pre-arb players coming off particularly outstanding seasons, however, feel they should be better rewarded for this performance, and sometimes opt to turn down the team’s offered raise rather than accept what they feel is simply inadequate compensation.

Needless to say, Soto has delivered far above and beyond the slightly more than $1.1MM in salary he has earned over his first two MLB seasons.  As Soto enters his age-21 season, the phenom has already hit .287/.403/.535 with 56 homers over 1153 plate appearances, and played a primary role in the Nationals’ 2019 World Series championship.  As per Fangraphs’ evaluations, Soto has already delivered $67.9MM worth of production with his 8.5 career fWAR.

The Cardinals’ Jack Flaherty was another young star who took a renewal this spring rather than accepting his club’s terms, and several other notable players (including Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Carlos Correa, Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and even Soto’s Nats teammate Ryan Zimmerman) have also their pre-arb deals renewed over the years.  Flaherty described his decision to turn down the Cards’ offer as a matter of “principle,” and a protest against baseball’s salary structure rather than against his particular team.

As we saw with Trout, Snell, and Zimmerman, contract renewals didn’t lead to hard feelings that prevented those players from signing lucrative multi-year extensions with their teams.  There seemingly hasn’t been much news about a potential extension between Soto and the Nationals, though since Soto is controlled through the 2024 season, there isn’t any huge urgency on Washington’s part.

That said, Soto will become arbitration-eligible next winter and is sure to qualify as a Super Two player, so he’ll take four trips through the arb process instead of the usual three.  That will only make Soto’s price tag rise even higher if he continues to perform at his elite level, and thus the Nats would certainly have interest in gaining some cost certainty over the young superstar.  Scott Boras, Soto’s agent, is usually more likely to advise his clients to test free agency rather than accept an extension, and Soto would potentially be in line for a record-setting contract since he is scheduled to be a free agent in advance of his age-26 season.  Boras does have a long history of doing business with the Nationals, however, so it wouldn’t be surprising if a deal was indeed worked out to keep Soto in the District.

Ross In Lead For Fifth Starter Role

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  • Joe Ross has pole position to break camp as the fifth starter for the World Champion Washington Nationals, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Austin Voth has pitched well enough to provide a legitimate challenge, but given that both players are likely to make the team, Ross has the track record to give him an edge. He also has the gaudy bullpen ERA to suggest he’s best utilized in the rotation. It’s fair to question the significance of rotation/bullpen splits, but few can boast a Jekyll-and-Hyde routine like Ross’ 2019. The 26-year-old put up an 11.17 ERA over 19 1/3 innings as a reliever, only to counter with a 3.02 ERA in 44 2/3 innings as a starter during the second half. Voth, meanwhile, is more of a late-bloomer at age-27, and he has yet to be tested in a relief capacity. Since making his professional debut in 2013, he has just 3 minor league relief appearances to go with 3 major league appearances out of the pen. Since the right-hander is out of options (as is Ross), Voth is likely to get his first real taste of bullpen life in 2020.

Victor Robles Progressing Well From Oblique Injury

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  • Another speedster, Nationals’ center fielder Víctor Robles, has been working back from an injury of his own. Fortunately, the outlook seems promising. The 22-year-old is swinging without pain, manager Dave Martinez tells reporters (including Jessica Camerato of MLB.com). Robles is still feeling some soreness in his oblique while throwing and running, though, so the club is understandably playing things cautiously. One of the game’s best defensive outfielders, Robles hit a passable .255/.326/.419 (91 wRC+) in his first full MLB season in 2019.

Nationals Notes: Eaton, Robles

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  • Nationals outfielder Adam Eaton left the team’s game after the first inning Tuesday with a tweaked left hamstring, manager Dave Martinez told Sam Fortier of the Washington Post and other reporters. The Nationals don’t regard it as a serious injury, however, as Martinez noted that Eaton likely would have stayed in had it been a regular-season game. Meanwhile, fellow Nats outfielder Victor Robles has been battling a sore left side since last week, but he also seems to be OK. If he gets through the next few days without issue, Robles could return to the team’s lineup during the upcoming weekend, per Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com.

Nats And Castro Excited About Coming Season

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  • Starlin Castro is energized by the opportunity to play for a contender again, per Sam Fortier of the Washington Post. Between the changes that Castro made to his approach in the second half of last year, and his excitement over playing in games of consequence again, the Nationals are finding reasons to believe in Castro’s potential to make up for some of the offense lost in the wake of Anthony Rendon’s departure. Castro’s a difficult player to pin down in terms of ability, but he is a four-time All-Star entering his age-30 season, and before the terms of his current two-year deal run out, he may even cross the 2,000 hit threshold.

Robles Day-To-Day With Oblique Strain

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  • Washington Nationals centerfield Victor Robles underwent an MRI on his left oblique recently. Nats fans can breath easy as the results came back negative, per MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato. Robles is already back in the cage, but the plan is to remain cautious for the time being. Given Robles’ importance to the Nats, it certainly makes sense to take their time with him this early in spring. The Nationals don’t have a ton of depth behind Robles, with Michael A. Taylor serving as his primary backup. While Taylor is an above-average defensive outfielder, his struggles at the plate led him to spend most of the 2019 season in Double-A.

Latest On Will Harris

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  • Newly-acquired Nationals reliever Will Harris “tweaked his abdomen” in the wake of a bullpen session yesterday, manager Davey Martinez told MASNsports.com’s Pete Kerzel and other media.  MRI results were negative, and Martinez said the team was opting “to be on the conservative side,” so it doesn’t sound as if the problem is overly serious.  Harris signed a three-year, $24MM free agent deal with the Nationals this winter, going from the Astros to the team that defeated them in last fall’s World Series.

Nats Notes: Strasburg, Scherzer, Kieboom

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While there’s no denying that huge money drove Stephen Strasburg’s return to the Nationals, there were some other key elements that informed his decisionmaking this winter. As Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic reports (subscription link), Strasburg actually worked in family-related travel benefits into his negotiations and contract. Those changes will redound to the benefit of other players with the organization. Strasburg also negotiated for year-round access to Nationals Park and access to certain equipment for training.

The whole story provides a nice look at the shy but increasingly assertive Nats’ co-ace. More from D.C. …

  • Strasburg has toiled quietly even under intense scrutiny. Max Scherzer isn’t exactly a trash-talker, but his mound-stalking and glowering certainly represent a challenge to opposing hitters. Both arms, and both personalities, have made the Nats’ pitching staff one of the best in the business for some time now. But for how long? Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington looks at the question whether Scherzer could end up inking a new deal with the club. The 35-year-old is presently two high-priced seasons away from a return to the open market. While it’s tough to imagine losing the rare pitcher that has outperformed a mammoth free agent deal, it’s also not an obvious situation for an extension. Scherzer says it’d be up to the team to “drive those conversations” if it wishes. On his side, he says he’s going to “stay in the moment” and not think too hard about the future.
  • The Nats’ hopes for a repeat crown obviously rest on quite a few players. If there’s a clear wild card, it’s probably young infielder Carter Kieboom. MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato checks in on his progress at learning to handle the third base position. The top prospect is accustomed to the left side of the infield, having spent plenty of time at shortstop, but says it’s still an adjustment to move to the hot corner. He’s keeping a steady demeanor and focusing on the big picture, but it’s obvious he’s also receiving something of a trial by fire this spring. Both Kieboom and manager Dave Martinez expressed confidence … and emphasizing the need for loads of reps both in practice and at game speed. “We really believe that he could be our third baseman,” says Martinez.

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