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East Notes: Harper, Marlins, Rays, Montreal

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A reporter recently suggested to Nationals star Bryce Harper that he might eventually be able to get a $400MM contract, to which Harper memorably replied, “Don’t sell me short.” $400MM would, of course, be the largest contract ever. But FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron writes that Harper might be worth even more. At this point in his career, Harper is similar in value to a young Alex Rodriguez, and A-Rod’s $252MM contract with the Rangers paid him at a rate of about 12 times the MLB average salary at the time. Since then, the average MLB salary has doubled. While there are some slight differences between the two cases (for example, the fact that A-Rod was younger when he signed his deal than Harper will be when he’ll hit free agency following the 2018 season), Cameron argues that the difficulty now in finding good value on the free agent market should help compensate for them. That could make Harper worth something like $40MM-$50MM a year, and given that he’ll have barely turned 26 when he becomes eligible for free agency, his first free agent deal could potentially clear $500MM, or more if it includes deferrals.

  • As has been previously reported, the Marlins continue to look for extra starting pitching depth, and due to a tight budget, they’re focusing on hurlers who might be available on minor-league deals. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro has the latest details on the team’s pitching search. Previous reports had linked the Marlins to Kyle Lohse, Alfredo Simon, Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee, and those names continue to be in Miami’s mix — Frisaro notes that when Lincecum and Lee hold workouts, the Marlins plan to attend. Frisaro also mentions 37-year-old Aaron Harang, who at last check had not decided whether or not to play this season. The veteran innings-eater spent 2015 with the Phillies, posting a 4.86 ERA, 5.6 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 172 1/3 innings.
  • There’s an outside-the-box idea circulating in Canada, reports Francois Cardinal from La Presse (link in French) — business interests could buy half of the Rays and have them split their home games between the Tampa area and Montreal. The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin has a summary of the plan. Having the team be based in two cities could potentially allow it to maximize television revenue, as games would be broadcast in both markets. Also, per-game attendance would increase because there would be fewer games in each city. Team-related income would be split between both ownership groups. Of course, Cardinal’s idea is far from reality at this point, and there are practical problems, like where in each city the Rays (who are currently trying to find a new stadium site in Tampa Bay) would play, and (as Topkin notes) whether the players association would approve of the arrangement, given the logistical difficulties it would presumably cause players.

International Notes: Gurriel Bros., July 2 Spending

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Cuban star Yulieski Gurriel, who reportedly defected recently with younger brother Lourdes Gurriel, may have an easier path to free agency than had been expected. Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald reports that both brothers have moved across the border from the Dominican Republic to Haiti, which is a popular launching point for Cuban players seeking to make it to the majors. (Spanish language link.) Importantly, per the report, the 31-year-old infielder has already established Panamanian residency, which might well provide a faster route to the open market since some hurdles would already be cleared. Ebro provides other interesting details on the situation of the famed elder Gurriel brother, who is apparently looking to take his last chance at playing in the majors in his prime. Though he’ll soon turn 32, Gurriel is considered a prime talent and will create an interesting market situation — remember, quality infielders such as Ian Desmond, David Freese, and Juan Uribe remain unsigned — if and when he is deemed eligible to sign. The younger Lourdes, meanwhile, still appears likely to wait until October to ink an agreement, when he’ll be old enough to fall ouside of international signing restrictions.

Here are some more notes on the international market:

  • The Brewers, Cardinals, Phillies, and Rangers are expected to have an active year in the coming July 2 market, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports, though it’s not yet clear to what extent any of those teams will be willing to go past their pool allocation. We’ve already heard that the Braves, Nationals, and Padres are expected to make significant moves this summer, likely incurring maximum penalties for exceeding their international spending limits. With numerous big spenders on the sidelines after blowing past their own caps in prior years, there’s some opportunity for other clubs to step in and seek to sign their own slate of talented youngsters out of Latin America.
  • Sanchez goes on to discuss the market more generally, explaining that expectations are the non-Cuban market will produce a few significant bonuses (around $3MM to $4MM) with several other players receiving seven-figure paydays as well. He further notes that there figures to be quite a bit of competition as teams capped at $300K bonuses look to add lower-bonus names. The Angels, Diamondbacks, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees are halfway through their two-year restricted periods, while the Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, and Royals are set to join them for the coming signing period.
  • There’s a notable showcase event being held today in Santo Domingo that will feature many of the players being targeted by the aforementioned teams, as Sanchez further reports. 59 prospects from seven nations will be there, including top Venezuelan youngster Kevin Maitan (who is favored to sign with the Braves). Other intriguing players are on hand, per Sanchez, including Mexican outfielder Tirso Ornelas, Panamanian righty Edisson Gonzalez, and Dominican outfielder Jeisson Rosario.

Nationals' Free Agent Offers Contained Significant Deferrals

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  • Every contract the Nationals offered to a free agent this winter contained significant deferrals due to uncertainty over the team’s MASN television dispute, writes Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. The issue came to light most prominently after the team’s failed pursuit of Cespedes. While the Nats technically offered $110MM over five years, Svrluga spoke to sources on both sides of the negotiation who felt the Mets’ offer was clearly better. As he notes, there’s perhaps no need to look further than the first year of the deal; Cespedes landed a $10MM signing bonus and a $17.5MM salary for the 2016 season — $27.5MM up front, with the possibility to max out at $75MM over three years — but would’ve received just $7MM in 2016 with the Nationals’ offer, which contained a decade’s worth of deferrals. One person that spoke to Svrluga called the team’s $200MM offer to Jason Heyward “the most complicated deferral” that person has ever encountered, noting that it contained 16 years worth of deferred monies. Even the players they’ve managed to sign over the past two years — Max Scherzer and Daniel Murphy — come with notable deferrals. Svrluga points out that Scherzer will be owed $15MM in the first year after his deal ends, and while delaying that payment drives down the value of those funds, Svrluga is correct to note that said line item on the team’s budget could interfere with the Nats’ ability to add some secondary pieces six years down the line.

Nationals Sign Brendan Ryan To Minors Pact

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The Nationals have announced the signing of infielder Brendan Ryan to a minor league deal. He’ll receive an invitation to major league camp.

It’s been something of an odd offseason thus far for the 33-year-old veteran, who kicked things off by exercising a $1MM player option with the Yankees. But he found himself dealt to the Cubs along with Adam Warren in exchange for Starlin Castro, only to be released shortly thereafter by Chicago — indicating that the organization took on his salary as part of the financial maneuvering in that swap.

Ryan will enter a crowded infield situation in D.C., which already has added fellow former Yankee middle infielder Stephen Drew and second baseman Daniel Murphy this winter. And the Nats already feature Anthony Rendon, Danny Espinosa, and prospects such as Trea Turner and Wilmer Difo.

But the Nationals have a history of trusting roster spots to solid veterans, and Ryan could still have something to offer as a depth option in the team’s utility mix. He only slashed .201/.244/.271 while battling injuries over two seasons in New York and has never really done much at the plate. But Ryan rated as an immensely valuable defender when he featured as a regular shortstop and is capable of playing anywhere in the infield dirt.

Nationals On Jonathan Lucroy’s No-Trade List

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The Nationals have interest in Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy but are one of eight clubs on the 29-year-old’s no-trade list, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. That, of course, presents an immediate roadblock but does not eliminate the possibility of a trade. In such instances, players will sometimes agree to forfeit their no-trade rights for some form of incentive from the acquiring team. The Nationals themselves made a compromise with Jonathan Papelbon last July, agreeing to guarantee his 2016 option at a slightly lesser rate ($11MM instead of $13MM) in order for Papelbon to accept the trade.

Lucroy is on one of baseball’s most favorable contracts, slated to earn just $4MM this season with an equally reasonable $5.25MM club option for the 2017 season. The overwhelmingly affordable nature of that option means that a Papelbon type of situation — exercising the option in advance — probably isn’t enough, as the option is likely to be picked up even in the event that Lucroy suffers an injury in 2016. An extension beginning in 2017 or, at the very least, an extension covering the 2017 season at a higher rate, could seemingly provide motivation for Lucroy to green-light a swap between the two sides.

Recently, Lucroy took to the media to voice his desire to play for a winning club. The longtime Brewer was respectful toward the Milwaukee organization — the only one he has ever known — speaking highly of the team but plainly stating that he preferred to be on a winning club. The implication, of course, is that a trade would be best for all parties involved. In that sense, a trade to the Nationals, whom many expect to contend for the NL East or at least for Wild Card spot, seem like an appealing landing spot for Lucroy.

Extracting full value in a trade of Lucroy, however, will be challenging for the Brewers. Lucroy started slowly in 2015 and then missed a sizable chunk of time due to a fractured toe suffered in late April. He returned on June 1 and hit more like himself over the next three months before suffering a concussion in early September. That injury sidelined him for about three weeks, and upon his return, he was limited to first base duties. While he’s fully expected to catch again in 2016, the possibility of lingering concussion issues and a down season that saw him post an overall batting line of .264/.326/.391 are factors working against his trade value.

The Nats were rumored to be seeking catching help earlier this offseason, although GM Mike Rizzo responded to those rumors quickly by offering high praise for incumbent backstop Wilson Ramos. Of course, moving Ramos to a backup role, while an unfavorable outcome for the player (Ramos is a free agent after the 2016 season), would certainly serve to deepen the Nationals’ roster, and the team hasn’t shied away from stockpiling depth (or attempting to, anyhow) all around the roster this winter. Daniel Murphy and Stephen Drew were both signed despite the fact that the Nats entered the season with reasonable middle infield depth, and the team has pursued Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes despite not having a clear need at any of their respective positions. The Nats have more of a need behind the plate than they did in those spots, so a run at Lucroy certainly wouldn’t be unreasonable.

NL Notes: Seager, Prospects, Cespedes, Rockies, Papelbon

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Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager has been named the game’s best prospect in preseason top-100 and top-101 prospect rankings from MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus.  Seager still qualifies for the lists since he retained his rookie eligibility by only making 113 plate appearances for L.A. last season, though he made a big first impression by hitting .337/.425/.561 in his initial taste of the big leagues.  Twins center fielder Byron Buxton and Nationals righty Lucas Giolito are ranked second and third on both lists, and overall, the National League dominates the upper echelon of both rankings.  Ten of MLB.com’s top 13 prospects are all from NL teams, while 10 of BP’s top 14 youngsters all hail from the senior circuit.  Here are some more items from around the National League…

  • The details of Yoenis Cespedes’ return to the Mets were detailed by COO Jeff Wilpon, GM Sandy Alderson and agent Brodie Van Wagenen in a conference call with reporters (including Mike Puma of the New York Post) earlier this week.  Negotiations quickly picked up steam within about a week’s time, though such important contractual details as Cespedes’ opt-out clause after the first year were agreed upon early in the process.
  • Van Wagenen also discussed his Cespedes’ free agency in a Friday interview with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (all links to Twitter).  He was in active talks with not just the Mets, but four other teams on the day that Cespedes agreed to re-sign with New York.  In regards to the deal’s structure and the opt-out clause, “it was less about looking toward next year and more about being able to control where he was going to be,” Van Wagenen said.
  • As the calendar turns to February, the Rockies have yet to make any additions to their shaky rotation, the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders writes.  GM Jeff Bridich stressed that the club expects internal upgrades in the form of better health from Jorge De La Rosa, Tyler Chatwood and Jordan Lyles.  As to the club’s rumored pursuit of Yovani Gallardo, Bridich described those reports as “fairly overblown.”
  • Multiple Nationals players tell James Wagner of the Washington Post that they don’t anticipate any clubhouse issues with Jonathan Papelbon in the wake of his infamous dugout skirmish with Bryce Harper last season.  A larger issue, Wagner notes, might be whether the D.C. fans are as forgiving — it’s not hard to see Papelbon receive his share of boos in the early stages of the season, especially if his performance struggles.

NL East Notes: Freeman, Peterson, Swanson, Groome, Storen

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The Braves concluded their final FanFest at Turner Field earlier today, writes Jon Cooper for MLB.com. The club is set to open SunTrust Park next season. In the meantime, they’ll try to rapidly rebuild in time for the new park. Here’s more about the Braves and other NL East clubs:

  • Freddie Freeman is finally pain free, he told reporters including Cooper. The lefty first baseman has dealt with a slow to heal right wrist injury. He managed a career worst 481 plate appearances last season, although he still hit reasonably well – .276/.370/.471 with 18 home runs. While many thought the Braves would trade Freeman, he’s still just 26. If the club turns around as quickly as they aim to, he’ll still be in his prime.
  • Another injured Brave, Jace Peterson, is also once again pain free, reports David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Peterson injured his thumb in late May and played through the injury for the remainder of the season. His .265/.340/.318 line wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire when he sustained the injury. However, it was slightly better than the .230/.305/.341 slash he put up over the rest of the season. Peterson has an interesting blend of skills. He could eventually develop into a sneaky-good utility player. He’s currently atop the depth chart at second base.
  • Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez hinted that we’ll see top prospect Dansby Swanson sooner rather than later, per a report in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Braves shortstop Erick Aybar is under contract through the end of this season. In my view, the club may be hoping Swanson can advanced quickly enough to join the team in early 2017 – if not sooner. After signing with the Diamondbacks last summer, Swanson had 99 plate appearances in Low-A, hitting .289/.394/.482. The soon-to-be 22-year-old has all the makings of a fast moving prospect. He was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Shelby Miller to Arizona.
  • Former Phillies ace Cole Hamels recently had the opportunity to meet with potential first draft pick Jason Groome, writes Matt Gelb of Philly.com. Of course, the Phillies hold that first overall selection and are said to be considering Groome. The 17-year-old New Jersey native already possesses mid-90s velocity with a promising curve and changeup. Hamels had simply advice for Groome: “stay healthy and you are going to be golden.” Of course, Hamels also had some more actionable advice. He offered the contact information of a motivational speaker he regularly talks to before starts.
  • Earlier today on MLB Network Radio, Drew Storen’s agent Brodie Van Wagenen said he and Nationals GM Mike Rizzo had a “unique level of transparency” following the trade for Jonathan Papelbon. The deal was not the first time the Nationals opted to replace Storen as the closer. The meaning behind Van Wagenen’s comment is somewhat vague. Presumably, both agent and GM had a candid talk about Storen’s role in the organization. Now Storen is turning the page as a member of the Blue Jays.

Latest On Ian Desmond

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Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times recently wrote that Ian Desmond’s lingering presence on the free-agent market continues to increase the possibility of a deal between Desmond and the Rays, and today, Topkin explored that topic on a much more in-depth scale.

Per Topkin, Desmond — a Sarasota, Fla. native — has indicated that he would like to play for the Rays. There are a number of other factors working in favor of a match between the two sides, Topkin notes, including the fact that Desmond shares the same agency as Rays skipper Kevin Cash and is close friends with Rays right fielder Steven Souza (from the pair’s days together with the Nationals). However, the Rays are loath to surrender the No. 13 overall pick in order to sign him, considering the importance of the draft to the cost-conscious club. SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo recently tweeted the same sentiment; the Rays have some interest in Desmond but consider the draft pick forfeiture a “huge obstacle” to an earnest pursuit.

Adding Desmond to the fold would shift Brad Miller from receiving the lion’s share of playing time at shortstop into a utility role, though he was deployed in a similar capacity over the past few years in Seattle. Beyond the draft pick and Desmond’s fit on the roster, the length of the deal represents an issue as well. Desmond would likely need to be amenable to a short-term deal — either one year (perhaps with an option) or two years — in order to make a signing realistic, per Topkin. It’s not clear whether Desmond’s asking price has dropped to that point or if he’s still seeking a multi-year deal, however. Alternatively, Desmond’s camp could seek a contract similar to the three-year contract with a one-year opt-out that Yoenis Cespedes just signed with the Mets (of course, at a considerably lower annual rate than Cespedes’ $25MM mark). The contract structure, as Jeff and I discussed on the MLBTR Podcast a few weeks back, makes sense for a number of remaining free agents as a modernized version of the traditional one-year “pillow” deal.

Desmond is just one of four remaining free agents to have rejected a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer that still remains on the market. While the Nationals are the lone team that would not need to sacrifice an existing draft pick to sign Desmond (though they’d be forfeiting the right to add an additional pick should he sign elsewhere), James Wagner of the Washington Post writes that there won’t be a reunion between the two parties. Desmond and the Nats haven’t had any form of contract negotiations this offseason, and the additions of Daniel Murphy and Stephen Drew have likely solidified the team’s group of middle infielders, especially with Trea Turner and Wilmer Difo rising through the minor league ranks.

Coming off a season that saw him bat just .233/.290/.384, Desmond’s stock is undeniably weaker than many anticipated prior to the 2015 campaign, although the second half of the season did see him rebound to a more Desmond-esque .261/.331/.446 batting line. Detractors question Desmond’s glove at shortstop — he had a bout of extreme error proneness early in 2015 — and his rising strikeout rate, while those who remain high on his abilities can point to the fact that he’s batted a collective .264/.317/.443 and averaged 22 homers and 20 steals per season since 2012. Jeff recently polled MLBTR readers on whether Desmond or fellow qualifying-offer-hampered free agent Howie Kendrick would earn more, and Desmond won the voting decisively.

In addition to the Rays, some speculative landing spots for Desmonds (from my point of view) include the White Sox, Rockies, D-backs, Braves, Twins, Tigers and Indians (a move to third base or second base would be required for some of those fits), though not all of those clubs are an ideal fit, and a number of them seem reluctant to part with their top unprotected pick. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently explored some of those clubs and other potential fits in an edition of the MLBTR Newsletter (for which you can sign up here).

Pitching Notes: Tomlin, O’Flaherty, Masterson, Marlins, Breslow

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Indians righty Josh Tomlin and club GM Mike Chernoff discussed their newly-minted extension, as Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal reports. While noting that Tomlin has some experience in the pen, Chernoff said that “he’ll have every opportunity to be in the starting rotation” this year. For the pitcher, the agreement was not just about maximizing his career earnings. “When they approached my agent about that contract, it was something that excited me and got me looking forward to this season,” he said. “I wasn’t really looking towards the future saying, ‘OK, these guys are getting this much money. I could potentially have that kind of money.’ It never entered my head. It was, ‘The Cleveland Indians wanted to give me a shot and I’m all about it.’”

Here’s the latest on the market for arms:

  • Veteran lefty Eric O’Flaherty is set to throw for scouts today in Seattle, according to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). He’ll be looking to prove that he’s not only healthy, but has worked out some mechanical kinks, per the report. Soon to turn 31, O’Flaherty endured a tough 2015 campaign — in particular, he showed an uncharacteristic inability to avoid the free pass — and will be looking for an opportunity to bounce back in 2016.
  • Righty Justin Masterson is beginning a throwing program and could be lining up a mid-March display for teams, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. We’ve heard previously of interest from a handful of clubs, but it seems that the one-time Indians stalwart will be looking to show off his form at full strength before signing.
  • The Marlins had interest in right-hander Bronson Arroyo before he inked with the Nationals, according to MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, and the team is leaning toward other free agent options that won’t require a guaranteed deal. While Miami will still consider a rotation piece on a MLB deal, per the report, it will only do so if it’s sure that any such player is at full health. Frisaro explains that the team is looking to maximize an approximately $75MM payroll with players that will be on the field.
  • Left-hander Craig Breslow is drawing interest from teams that view him as both a rotation and pen possibility, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. The 35-year-old has been looking for a chance at a late-career move back to the rotation after a successful pair of starts late last year.

Quick Hits: PEDs, Computer Breach, Tanking, Extensions

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Major league baseball will work with the United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) in its investigation of PED allegations arising from a recent Al Jazeera report, ESPN.com’s T.J. Quinn reports. Several players were implicated in that report, including Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals and Ryan Howard of the Phillies. “We’ve had discussions with USADA and are hopeful that together we can make progress in this investigation,” said the league’s chief legal officer, Dan Halem. As Quinn explains, it’s an unprecedented level of interaction between the league and the agency. The NFL, on the other hand, won’t be participating in the arrangement.

Here are some more notes of general interest from around the game:

  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that commissioner Rob Manfred must not show any favoritism towards the Cardinals and owner Bill DeWitt in assessing whether and how to issue penalties arising from the improper accessing of the Astros’ computer systems by former Cards scouting director Chris Correa. (For the latest information on that, read here and here.) Manfred and DeWitt enjoy a good relationship, as the commissioner himself made clear in comments to Rosenthal. But the top league official also left no room for interpretation as to his intentions, telling FOX Sports: “I think what the owners expect me to do — regardless of what my relationship [with an owner] may or may not be personally — is do the right thing by the institution. That’s what I intend to do when I have all the facts about the Houston-St. Louis thing.”
  • There’s been some debate recently about the subject of “tanking,” and both Dave Cameron of Fangraphs and Buster Olney of ESPN.com weighed in on it yesterday. Cameron argues that there aren’t strong enough incentives for MLB teams to lose on purpose in pursuit of better positions for amateur talent. Olney counters that some talent evaluators in the game see a real and growing problem. Manfred’s own recent take on the matter is well worth consideration as well.
  • ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden takes a crack (Insider link) at valuing some possible extensions of top young players around the game. He has Bryce Harper at just over $400MM, which is also the rough price range that MLBTR’s Steve Adams and MLBTR’s readers have previously landed at. It’s an interesting thought experiment, and is well worth a read. I would take some issue, however, with the spread between his $100MM+ valuations on players like Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor and his approximately seven-year, $70MM estimates for the two Red Sox players on the list, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts.
  • Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper offers an interesting and sometimes sobering look at some of the very best prospects that never made it to the major leagues.
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