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Axisa On Qualifying Offer Candidates

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Thirteen players will “definitely” receive a qualifying offer, speculates Mike Axisa of CBS Sports. All told, 50 players are eligible for the qualifying offer (pending a couple expected opt-outs). Axisa believes 20 free agents are likely to be extended an offer, although he believes the case for seven of those players is less than certain. With the value of a qualifying offer now set at $15.8MM, we have a better idea of what clubs must risk in order to gain a compensation pick.

If all 20 of Axisa’s picks were to receive an offer, it would set a new record (previous high: 13 players in 2013). Overall, 34 players have received a qualifying offer in past offseasons. All 34 have rejected it – a sign that clubs are conservative with the offer. Here’s more from Axisa:

  • Interestingly, Axisa counts Orioles catcher Matt Wieters among the locks to receive an offer. However, we learned earlier today that the club may prefer to allocate that money elsewhere – if they believe he might accept the offer. To me, there does seem to be a real chance that Wieters would choose to remain with Baltimore for one more season. Camden Yards is one of the best ballparks for a switch-hitter to improve his value.
  • Of Axisa’s seven players “likely” to receive an offer, Ian Desmond strikes me as a near guarantee. While he had a disappointing 2015 season, his track record should easily support a sizable multi-year offer. I could see him accepting the offer only if he knows an injury has permanently reduced his skill set. Similarly, medical information may be the only cause for the Nationals to pass on issuing an offer.
  • Axisa also reminds us of the 14 players who are no longer eligible for a qualifying offer because they were traded mid-season. The biggest names include David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, and Johnny Cueto. Scott Kazmir and Ben Zobrist were also near-locks for an offer while Gerardo Parra may have played his way into consideration. It’s all moot now.
  • Twelve players have options that are likely to be exercised. Of those, I see Nori Aoki, Joaquin Benoit, and David Murphy as the hardest decisions. All three are team options. As a soon-to-be 34-year-old platoon outfielder, Murphy’s case is easily the most difficult. He’s posted 0.1 fWAR over the last three seasons (1,329 plate appearances) and will be owed $7MM. It’s been speculated that the Angels were at least open to keeping him, but that was before they hired new GM Billy Eppler. Yesterday, we heard the club may prefer to use that money on a “more impactful bat.”

NL Notes: Brewers, Reds, Span, Knorr

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Brewers GM David Stearns says that his just-established front office is working on a flexible offseason plan that will allow the organization to tackle the winter’s always-changing trade and free agent markets, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports. “Having a specified plan going into an offseason is always a little bit challenging because the dynamics of the offseason change consistently,” he said. “With every trade, every team’s needs change somewhat. With every signing, the market can change a little bit. But heading into the GM Meetings we should have a rough outline of what we’re looking to do as an organization. And then the period between the GM Meetings and the Winter Meetings, as the market begins to take shape, we should begin to really target specific areas.”

  • While Stearns kept his cards close to the vest, he said that his new team — unlike the Astros, where he served as assistant GM — does not have the same need to “start[] from scratch” since Milwaukee has already begun a rebuilding phase. He (wisely) declined to commit to a contention timeline, but said he believes the “fan base recognizes that there’s patience needed.” As for how drastic the tear-down could be, Stearns said he’s open to continue dealing from the major league roster.
  • The Reds face an interesting offseason, and MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon breaks things down. There are some scenarios where the club could stay in much the same form as it ended 2015, while welcoming back some injured players. Or, of course, a variety of veterans could end up being dealt.
  • Outfielder Denard Span, who will soon become a free agent from the Nationals, tweeted today that recent X-rays showed positive news as he recovers from hip surgery. He obviously won’t have a chance to prove his health before hitting the market, but that’s obviously promising news. The 31-year-old has been highly productive over the last two years when he’s on the field, but missed time this year with the hip issue and offseason core muscle surgery. Though he’s one of only a few quality center field options on the free agent market, health concerns figure to hold down his earning power. It remains to be seen whether Washington will make Span a qualifying offer, which could also impact his market.
  • Nationals bench coach Randy Knorr lost his job along with the entire rest of the team’s coaching staff this year, but he tells James Wagner of the Washington Post that he’s still interested in a chance at interviewing for the open managerial position — a possibility that GM Mike Rizzo expressly left open (while not exactly endorsing) in his recent comments to the press. “They would have to ask me to interview for it,” Knorr said. “I’d love to do it. I know all the players. I’ve been around them for four years now. I think I’d be really good for the job. I don’t know which direction they wanna go. I don’t know if they want the big name again or what. But I think I’m probably the most qualified for it.”

NL East Notes: Gardenhire, Baker, Olivera, Marlins

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Veteran managers Ron Gardenhire and Dusty Baker are interested in the Nationals’ managerial vacancy, reports James Wagner of the Washington Post. Wagner spoke to agent John Boggs, who represents Gardenhire, about the fit. “I would think Ron would definitely be interested in the Nats job,” said Boggs. “It’s a very attractive job and city, and a good team. What’s not to like? For someone wanting to get back into managing, it’s a great opportunity.” Boggs told Wagner that the 57-year-old Gardenhire has been rejuvenated by a year away from the game and is “very open” to finding a new managing opportunity. Baker himself spoke to Wagner over the phone and confirmed his interest, although as he notes, the interest needs to be mutual. While Baker’s been connected to the Marlins in multiple reports, he told Wagner he has not been contacted by Miami.

Here’s more from the NL East…

  • Braves infielder Hector Olivera will play about six weeks of winter ball in Puerto Rico this offseason, writes David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. While there, he’ll spend time working with Braves hitting coach Kevin Seitzer and minor league infield coordinator Luis Lopez. O’Brien notes that the Braves aren’t sweating a lackluster performance in a tiny sample of 87 plate appearances. And while his defense at third looked shaky, GM John Coppolella said there’s no current plan to move him to the outfield, as the team will evaluate his glove at third in winter ball. O’Brien notes that Olivera is still adjusting to third base after playing a good deal of second base in Cuba.
  • The Marlins announced today that they have promoted director of pro scouting Jeff McAvoy to vice president of player personnel. Additionally, director of player development Brian Chattin has been promoted to assistant general manager, and assistant director of pro scouting David Keller has shed the “assistant” from his title and will assume McAvoy’s former role. Changes in the front office were reported to be on the horizon on Sunday, though the exact way in which titles would change wasn’t known publicly until today.
  • On a smaller Marlins note, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports (via Twitter) that the club would like to upgrade its analytics department this winter.

Field Staff Notes: Padres, Nationals, Brewers

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Here’s the latest on some managerial and coaching situations from around the league:

  • As the Padres gear up for a managerial search, GM A.J. Preller says he’s planning to “cast a wider net” over the coming weeks, MLB.com’s Corey Brock reports. “I think the baseball operations group is ready to talk to the best and brightest we can find in the baseball world,” he said, continuing on to note that there would be few limits as the search gets underway. “We are going to interview people from all spectrums … from all experience levels. You look at some of the more experienced managers in the Major Leagues and they come from all different backgrounds.”
  • The Nationals, meanwhile, appear likely to seek experience in a new hire. As Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com notes, despite the appeal of all-time great Cal Ripken Jr., the Nats may be fearful of another inexperienced manager. Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post also discusses some possible options to step in.
  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo spoke with reporters today about the decision to part with Williams and the process of finding his replacement, and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post has the transcript. Rizzo said that he’ll look at “a group of people with diverse backgrounds, diverse experiences, and diverse skill sets” and will be sure to include those with time spent as skippers — which, he noted, was not the case in the last hiring process. “We feel that where we’re at in our timetable, our time frame of winning a championship, we would lean toward someone who has some type of managerial experience at the major league level,” said Rizzo. “But again, we’re gonna be open minded and look for the best candidate that we can that allows us to win a championship here in the very near future.”
  • The Brewers will part with all but two of their current coaches, per a team announcement. Only hitting coach Darnell Coles and third base coach Ed Sedar will stay on for manager Craig Counsell’s 2016 staff. He’ll have a chance to pick his own lieutenants now, in concert with new GM David Stearns. One likely target is Pat Murphy, who won’t stay on as Padres’ skipper, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel tweets. Milwaukee had tried to hire him earlier this year when Counsell took the reins.

Nationals Fire Matt Williams, Coaching Staff

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10:45am: The Nationals announced that not only has Williams been fired, but the entire coaching staff has been let go as well. Bench coach Randy Knorr, pitching coach Steve McCatty, hitting coach Rick Schu, third base coach Bobby Henley, first base coach Tony Tarasco, bullpen coach Matt LeCroy and defensive coordinator Mark Weidemaier are all out, as the Nats will hire a new skipper and an entirely new field staff.

10:17am: The Nationals dismissed manager Matt Williams earlier this morning, a source tells James Wagner of the Washington Post (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of CBS Sports wrote last Friday that his fate was sealed, and reports of communication issues from Heyman, the Post’s Barry Svrluga and others have been circulating for quite some time.

Matt Williams

Believed by many to be the division favorite entering the season, the Nationals instead finished the year second place in the NL East by a wide margin and also failed to secure a Wild Card spot in the playoffs. Of course, injuries played a large role in the team’s underperformance — Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Denard Span, Jayson Werth, Stephen Strasburg and Doug Fister were among those to spend time on the DL — and an unexpectedly dreadful first half from Ian Desmond did the team little favors.

However, reports late in the season surfaced that suggested Williams’ cold demeanor didn’t sit well with players, and the aforementioned Svrluga report in particular chronicles a significant altercation with Werth while also mentioning communication issues with a number of veteran players. Bryce Harper gave Williams a vote of confidence late in the season, but shortly thereafter, the manager seemed inexplicably oblivious to a physical confrontation between Harper and trade acquisition Jonathan Papelbon. Harper called Papelbon’s antics “tired” after the closer threw near Manny Machado’s head, telling the media that if anyone on the club was going to pay for it, it’d be Harper himself the following day in the form of retaliatory plunking. Days later, Papelbon would take issue with Harper, supposedly for not running out a fly-ball (though, as many have pointed out, Harper did reach first base prior to the ball being caught) and ultimately grab Harper by the throat and shove him after a heated exchange. Unaware of what had transpired at the other end of the dugout, Williams sent Papelbon out to pitch the next inning.

Williams won National League Manager of the Year honors in 2014 despite persistent questions regarding his bullpen management, which were highlighted in last year’s playoffs. His two-year tenure with the Nationals will conclude with a 179-145 record that looks impressive on paper but serves as a reminder that there’s much more to evaluating a manager than simply checking the win/loss column.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL East Notes: Phillies, Biddle, Nats, Williams

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The Phillies haven’t won much in 2015, but they have won the race to the bottom, as Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes.  For the first time since 1998, the Phillies will pick No. 1 in the amateur draft and while there isn’t a slam-dunk top choice, it never hurts to have the top pick.  The Phillies will also get the largest bonus pool in the international signing period, which will aid them in the long term.

Kaplan notes that this will be the first No. 1 pick for incoming Phillies president Andy MacPhail. The highest he ever drafted was No. 2 when he was with the Cubs in 2001 – he used that selection to take right-hander Mark Prior.

Here’s more out of the NL East..

  • Phillies interim GM Scott Proefrock announced that former top prospect Jesse Biddle has suffered a torn UCL, as Kaplan tweets.  The left-hander will undergo Tommy John surgery on October 14th.  Biddle was rated as the No. 71 prospect in the country by Baseball America prior to the 2014 season, but his struggles through multiple levels of the Phillies’ farm system knocked him out of the top 100.  Things weren’t much better this year for the 23-year-old (soon-to-be 24), as he pitched to a 4.95 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 24 outings between Double-A and Triple-A.
  • Despite talk that he’ll be ousted as Nationals manager, Matt Williams says that no one in the front office has talked to him about his job status, as Bill Ladson of MLB.com writes.  Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com recently reported that Williams is all but certain to be fired after the season while a source says that GM/president of baseball ops Mike Rizzo is safe.
  • Rizzo says that the front office will meet tomorrow and that decisions will be made “sooner rather than later,” as Mark Zuckerman of CSNmidatlantic.com tweets.  The GM added that he doesn’t “want anybody twisting in the wind.”

NL East Notes: Scherzer, Harang, Pierzynski, Matz, Ichiro

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Nationals ace Max Scherzer has completed his second no-hitter of the season. The Mets fell victim to an utterly dominating outing. Scherzer fanned 17 hitters. The only base runner reached via error. The win actually has some postseason implications too. The Dodgers are now just one win away from securing home field advantage against New York. Scherzer no-hit the Pirates earlier this year. He struck out 10 in that contest. This was also the second time the Mets were no-hit (Chris Heston).

  • Phillies starter Aaron Harang has yet to decide if he’ll play in 2016, tweets Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Harang, 37, posted a 4.86 ERA with 5.72 K/9 and 2.70 BB/9 over 166 and 2/3 innings. Through his first 11 starts, he had a 2.02 ERA and 3.10 FIP, but injuries soon sapped his production. Harang will consult with his family in San Diego before making a decision.
  • Newly minted Phillies president Andy MacPhail is part of a long baseball tradition, writes Frank Fitzpatrick of the Philadelphia Inquirer. His father, former baseball executive Lee MacPhail once described his son as decisive, adding “he never second-guesses himself.” The Phillies will hope that decisiveness results in a rapid turnaround after a miserable season. If you’re looking to learn more about the MacPhail dynasty, Fitzpatrick provides a thorough background.
  • Against all odds, Nationals infielder Dan Uggla won a roster spot in Spring Training and never gave it up, writes Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. Uggla didn’t earn much playing time with the Nationals. Including two plate appearances today, he’s hit .183/.298/.300 in 141 plate appearances. Uggla believes his vision and health are back to where they were in his Marlins days. While it’s unclear if Uggla will find a guaranteed contract this offseason, multiple sources with Washington praised his clubhouse presence.
  • The Braves hope to re-sign catcher A.J. Pierzynski, reports David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The soon-to-be 39-year-old had a remarkably productive season after signing a one-year, $2MM contract over the offseason. He’s hit .300/.339/.430 with nine home runs. Pierzynski figures to receive some attention in free agency, but teams may be wary of his age and reputation.
  • Mets starter Steven Matz is starting to build a reputation as injury prone, writes Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. Personally, it seems too soon to worry over seemingly minor injuries – even if they are poorly timed. However, one rival executive wondered “is he one of those guys where there is always going to be an issue?” For now, the Mets have to decide if and how they want to use him in the postseason. However, it’s possible the club could use him as trade bait over the offseason given their rotation strength. His trade value will be at a low point if rival clubs view him as an injury risk.
  • Marlins outfielder Ichiro Suzuki aims to play 10 more years, writes David Waldstein of the New York Times. The former Mariners star has played in 150 games for Miami due to a serious of injuries in the outfield. He’s posted a .233/.286/.284 line over 431 plate appearances. Advanced defensive measures look favorably upon his performance in the outfield. While another 10 years feels like a stretch, Ichiro should receive ample opportunity to reach 3,000 hits. He’s currently 65 shy.

Rosenthal On Eppler, Cherington, Orioles, Black

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Here’s the latest from Ken Rosenthal, via a video on FOX Sports:

  • Nothing is official, and it’s hard to tell what Angels owner Arte Moreno might be thinking, but the Yankees still believe assistant GM Billy Eppler will get the open GM job in Anaheim. One possible reason the Angels haven’t yet made the announcement is that they might have to face the Yankees in the AL Wild Card matchup.
  • Former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington isn’t likely to try to get a GM job this offseason, but perhaps the Phillies job could be appealing to him, since he and Phillies owner John Middleton both went to Amherst. If Cherington takes a GM job, he’ll want to work with someone he trusts.
  • The Orioles have extended bench coach John Russell’s contract, but have not done the same for their other coaches, and it looks like changes could be afoot. Pitching coach Dave Wallace appears most likely to head elsewhere (and other teams are already inquiring about his availability). Any potential coaching changes could lead to disagreements between GM Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter.
  • The Marlins and Nationals could be potential landing spots for manager Bud Black, and the Braves might also become a possibility at some point, given that he once worked as an assistant to current Braves exec John Hart. The Dodgers might also come into play if they part ways with Don Mattingly.

NL Notes: Reds, Phillies, Nationals

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The Reds continue to run out a remarkable string of rookie starters, as Jonah Keri of Grantland explains. Cincinnati is testing that group out against major league hitters now due both to necessity and to take advantage of the opportunity to challenge its young arms. In the process, it’s set records for most consecutive rookie starts and most total rookie starts in a season. “When we went into this, we didn’t think about breaking any records,” said GM Walt Jocketty. “We’re just trying to finish off the season with our young starting pitchers of the future. [Going with all rookie starters] gives us a better idea of who those pitchers might be now, [compared to] what we had a couple years ago.”

Here are a few more notes from the National League:

  • The Phillies will likely kick their GM search into high gear after the regular season is completed, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. Philadelphia could ramp up its interviews at that time, he suggests, though a complete hiring timeline remains unclear.
  • Whoever takes over for the Phillies will, of course, have plenty of long-term decisions to make, but things will start with management of the team’s big league assets. Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer looks at every current member of the 40-man roster, breaking down some possible outcomes.
  • The Nationals have parted ways with two front office members, as Bill Ladson of MLB.com reports. Director of international scouting Bill Singer and advance scout Bob Johnson have both been let go.

Heyman’s Latest: Nats, Managers/GMs, Kennedy, Martinez, Beltre, Desmond

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While Matt Williams is all but certain to be let go following the season, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in his latest Inside Baseball column, a source close to the situation tells him that Nationals GM/president of baseball ops Mike Rizzo “isn’t going anywhere.” The ill-fated acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon and Rizzo’s backing of Williams has led to some speculation about his job, but Heyman indicates that Washington’s top decision-maker is safe. Heyman focuses on the Nats in a lengthy intro to his column, also notably reporting that the “ship has sailed” on the Cubs’ interest in Papelbon, making them an unlikely destination in a trade this winter. The Nats will try to unload Papelbon, though finding a trade partner in the wake of recent drama surrounding him will prove exceptionally difficult. Heyman also notes that Tyler Clippard and Gerardo Parra were Rizzo’s top two deadline priorities, but he didn’t have authorization to increase payroll, and thus turned to Papelbon, as the Phillies were willing to include money in the deal.

Some highlights from the rest of the lengthy but informative column…

  • In running down current GM vacancies as well as potential managerial openings, Heyman notes a number of likelihoods. Billy Eppler is expected to be offered the Angels’ GM position, he hears, but the Halos may go with the increasingly popular two-executive format, meaning Josh Byrnes could be hired as president to work above Eppler. Torey Lovullo’s name could surface as a candidate for the Padres, especially given CEO Mike Dee’s ties to Boston. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto could have a tough time with Lloyd McClendon, whom one Mariners person described as even more old-school than Mike Scioscia, and Heyman hears that former Rangers bench coach/Angels front office assistant Tim Bogar could get a look.
  • The Indians will be looking for third basemen this winter and could seek upgrades in center field and right field as well.
  • Rockies GM Jeff Bridich is said to be a believer in young right-hander Eddie Butler, a former Top 100 prospect that has struggled mightily in the Majors. Others in the organization aren’t as sold on him.
  • The Tigers will be looking for a closer and at least one setup man this winter, and they could show interest in the Reds’ Aroldis Chapman on the trade market (though he strikes me as a questionable fit with just one year until free agency). Detroit will also be seeking rotation upgrades on the free agent market, and a few players of early interest are Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy and Jeff Samardzija. Trades for rotation help are also possible, though Detroit wants to hold onto Daniel Norris and Michael Fulmer.
  • Cuban outfield prospect Eddy Julio Martinez recently worked out for the Royals and had an impressive showing. The Dodgers and Giants remain interested as well, he adds. It’s worth also pointing out that each of those three clubs has already spent heavily enough on international free agents to incur maximum penalties, so the only further repercussion they’d face is further luxury taxation.
  • The Brewers will target rotation help this offseason, and Heyman calls Kennedy a “possibility.” To me, that’d seem like more of the same from recent winters, when Milwaukee added Matt Garza and Kyle Lohse — a pair of mid-range upgrades. Unlike those winters, however, they’re not close enough to contention this time around for me to see the logic in offering Kennedy a four-year deal, especially since he’ll probably end up with a qualifying offer attached to his name. On another Brewers’ note, Heyman writes that the team should listen on Jean Segura, given Orlando Arcia’s emergence in the minors, though I’m not sure Segura is teeming with trade value following another poor season.
  • Samardzija could be a target for the Yankees, who employ former Cubs GM Jim Hendry in their front office. Hendry was Chicago’s general manager when the team initially signed Samardzija and remains a believer in the right-hander.
  • The D-Backs, Nationals, Tigers, Cubs, Rangers, Yankees and maybe the Braves will all show interest if the Padres decide to move Craig Kimbrel this winter.
  • Adrian Beltre will need to undergo surgery to repair a severe thumb sprain through which he’s been playing for quite some time following the Rangers’ season.
  • There’s “no chance” that Ian Desmond would accept a one-year qualifying offer, writes Heyman, who presumes that the Nationals will make the offer. Though Desmond’s struggled this year, it shouldn’t be expected that any prime-aged player who isn’t coming off a major injury would accept the offer, in my view. Detractors will state that said player can’t find a similar average annual value on a multi-year deal, and while that may be true, locking in a more sizable payday once free agency is an option tends to be a greater priority. Heyman lists the Mariners, White Sox and Mets as speculative possibilities to enter the shortstop market. Desmond won’t top $100MM, like many once expected, but even with a QO in tow, he’ll be able to handily top $16MM, even at a lower AAV. And, if the offers don’t materialize, he can always sign a one-year deal at or near that rate later in the offseason.
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