Reported Runner-Up Offers For Heyward And Greinke
The most important numbers involved in any free agent scenario are, obviously, the final deal terms. But the offers made by other clubs are not only interesting but also potentially tell us something about the market — both at the time of the signing and even moving forward.
We heard plenty of discussion today about how much cash was dangled in front of two of this year’s three biggest free agent pieces: Jason Heyward and Zack Greinke. Heyward reportedly agreed with the Cubs for eight years and $184MM, with a contract provision allowing him two separate opportunities to opt out of the deal and re-enter the market. Meanwhile, after exercising just such a clause to jump back into the free agent waters, Greinke inked a mind-blowing six-year, $206.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks (which included some very significant deferrals).
Before entering those arrangements, both players considered multiple other arrangements. For Heyward, the elusive $200MM barrier was reportedly met or exceeded by both the Nationals and the Cardinals. (Per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch — here and here — and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, on Twitter.) And at least one other team, possibly the Angels, also beat Chicago’s total guarantee with its bid. (That’s per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, Twitter links; see here for the Halos’ late interest.)
Notably, though, we’ve not been told how many years Washington and St. Louis covered in their offers, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that it seems neither met the $23MM AAV that Heyward will reportedly receive. And as Keith Law of ESPN.com stresses on Twitter, it’s even more important to bear in mind that the opt-out opportunities carry significant value and that Heyward will owe less in state taxes in Illinois than he would have in the other locales.
While acknowledging the opt-out value, Passan notes that it’s nevertheless “uncommon” for a player to turn down a greater overall guarantee, and that’s largely true in the abstract. But it’s important to remember, too, that Heyward’s unique market placement — he hasn’t even reached the halfway point between 26 and 27 years of age — makes his situation quite a bit different from that of most free agents.
For one thing, Heyward’s age arguably increases the worth of those bail-out clauses even further, since he’ll gain the right to re-enter the market in advance of his age-29 season. That’s still early for a free agent, and might give Heyward a chance not only to step up his AAV (if his performance increases and/or salary inflation continues) but also to tack on more years down the line. Greinke pulled exactly that trick despite turning 32 before signing his new deal, and the upside for Heyward is even greater.
Also, gaining two opt-out points will allow Heyward to assess his market timing while keeping the future guarantee in his back pocket. That not only adds to the value going to him in this deal but also increases the uncertainty and risk for the Cubs.
It’s worth noting, too, that even if Heyward does play out the full eight years in Chicago, he’ll stand to hit the market again before he turns 35. That’s exactly the point in his career that Ben Zobrist finds himself as he joins the Cubs on a four-year, $56MM contract. There’s good reason to believe that Heyward will be plenty capable of continuing to earn money on the open market at the end of his deal, which makes it much easier (and arguably wise) to forego another year (or two) of commitment for a relatively marginal bump in the overall guarantee — all at the cost of annual earning power.
Simply put, without knowing whether the other bidders were willing to include similar opt-out terms, and without knowing the length of their proposals, it’s impossible to compare the offers. From my perspective, though, the deal that Heyward ultimately agreed to is a better contract for him than the straight ten-year, $200MM deal that we at MLBTR thought Heyward could command (see here and here).
As for Greinke, the veteran righty said today in his introductory press conference that he was literally minutes away from signing with some unknown other club before Arizona swept in. ESPN’s Molly Knight tweeted that the Giants were actually the runners up, making Greinke a six-year, $195MM offer.
But San Francisco’s president of baseball operations Brian Sabean has said publicly that the club was not comfortable promising Greinke a sixth year. And both Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area (Twitter link) and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (also on Twitter) strongly disputed the notion that the Giants had come anywhere near the D-Backs’ offer.
The Dodgers, too, are said to have balked at going to six years on Greinke, as MLB.com’s Mark Saxon was among those to note recently (Twitter link). It remains unclear how high the Los Angeles offer was, and whether it or another team was the one that nearly struck a deal with Greinke.
Looking at all of those reported offers, it seems clear that there are several clubs that have the capacity and willingness to spend much more money this winter than they have so far. That’s not to say that all will actually put that cash right back into free agency. But the potential is there, and it’s also notable that an unexpected team (the Diamondbacks) put so much cash onto the market.
All said, there’s plenty left to be spent. And that makes sense: more than half of MLBTR’s top fifty free agents — including six of the top ten — remain unsigned at present.
Jason Heyward Makes Decision; Cardinals Out, Nats Pessimistic
11:54pm: Heyman tweets that the Nationals are believed to have offered about or exactly $200MM to Heyward.
11:52am: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Cardinals are “out” on Heyward.
11:50am: Jason Heyward has made a decision on which team he’ll sign with, a source tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link). Goold writes that while the Cardinals were aggressive, it doesn’t sound like Heyward chose them. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets that the Nationals aren’t optimistic about a deal, either. The Cubs are “very much in play,” says Goold, though no report has indicated that Chicago has agreed to terms with Heyward just yet.
Heyward was said recently to be nearing a decision, with the Cubs, Cardinals and Nationals as finalists. The Angels were, at one point, said to be a finalist also, and the Giants have been linked to him, though they reportedly never made a formal offer.
Nationals Sign Shawn Kelley
After days of conflicting reports, the Nationals have officially announced the signing of right-hander Shawn Kelley to a three-year contract. The Frye McCann Sports client is said to have received a $15MM total guarantee over three years, with salaries of $4MM (2016) and $5.5MM (2017 and 2018).
Kelley, who turns 32 in April, posted a 2.45 ERA and 63 strikeouts (against just 15 walks) in 51 1/3 relief innings for the Padres in 2015. This fine performance was backed up by metrics like FIP (2.57), xFIP (2.91) and SIERA (2.55). Kelley also pitched well according to those advanced statistics in 2013-14 as a reliever for the Yankees but wasn’t as lucky on the ERA front, posting a 4.46 ERA in those two seasons.
It was certainly an opportune time for Kelley to post the best of his seven Major League seasons. Kelley has a career 3.67 ERA, 3.33 K/BB rate, 10.2 K/9 over 284 1/3 career innings. He has only a 33% ground ball rate for his career, but he improved greatly in that category last season with a career-best 42.7% number. He’s been effective against hitters on either side of the plate, and Kelley’s career splits indicate he’s actually been better against left-handed batters (.666 OPS) than right-handed batters (.711 OPS).
Between Kelley and left-hander Oliver Perez, Washington has now agreed to contracts with two notable relievers within the last week. The two deals are a big step towards the bullpen overhaul many expected for the Nats this offseason.
And since the news of the Kelley signing first broke, the Nats added two more pen arms. After agreeing to terms with veteran righty Yusmeiro Petit, the club shipped Yunel Escobar to the Angels for 23-year-old flamethrower Trevor Gott. All told, the Nats’ pen will features at least four new faces, though more change could still be to come.
It remains to be seen what the Nationals will end up doing in terms of high-leverage arms. Closer Jonathan Papelbon and setup man Drew Storen are both reportedly on the trading block, but it’s not clear what direction the organization could take in terms of acquisitions with Darren O’Day headed to the Orioles and Aroldis Chapman‘s status in limbo.
Reports surfaced recently that Kelley’s market was heating up, so it’s no surprise that the reliever has now landed a new contract. Kelley was rated 44th on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, with Tim Dierkes projecting him to land a two-year, $12MM deal.
ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick tweeted the financial parameters of the deal, with Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweeting details. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweeted that the deal would go through. Jack Curry of the YES Network originally reported the signing (via Twitter) on December 8, though later reports suggested agreement was not yet finalized.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Nationals Sign Oliver Perez
The Nationals on Friday formally announced the completion of their two-year deal with left-handed reliever Oliver Perez. The veteran southpaw will reportedly take home a $7MM guarantee, paying him $3MM in 2016 and $4MM in 2017.
The 34-year-old Perez, a client of Scott Boras, figures to step into the role that was occupied by Matt Thornton over the past season-and-a-half in D.C. — that of a left-handed specialist. Perez is coming off somewhat of a mixed season, as he was excellent in 29 frames for the D-backs in a similar lefty specialist capacity before struggling following a trade to the Astros.
All told, he pitched to a 4.17 ERA with 51 strikeouts against 15 walks in 49 innings last season and held opposing left-handers to a meager .185/.235/.283 batting line. Of course, on the flip side of that dominance, right-handed batters tattooed Perez for a .310/.417/.465 triple slash.
Perez will be part of a largely restructured Nationals bullpen that will include recent trade acquisition Trevor Gott as well as new signees Shawn Kelley and Yusmeiro Petit. The Nats are also said to be looking at potential trades of Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen, creating the distinct possibility that first-year manager Dusty Baker will enter the 2016 campaign with a vastly different relief corps than the one that proved to be fairly problematic for the Nationals in 2015.
MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez was the first to report the deal and the terms (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of CBS Sports provided the contract breakdown.
Nationals “Serious Threat” To Land Heyward, Who Has $200MM Offer In Hand
9:46pm: A source tells MLB.com’s Bill Ladson that the Nats are “heavily involved” and are making a “legit” effort to sign the young outfielder. He adds, interestingly, that Taylor “would become expendable” if a deal is struck.
From an analytical perspective, it seems plenty plausible that the team could add Heyward (or another outfielder) and keep Taylor. For one thing, there’s plenty of justification to give him further developmental time at Triple-A. For another, he’d still be an important depth piece in the near term and would have plenty of possibilities for increased playing time with the clock ticking on Werth’s contract (and perhaps also his time as a full-time regular).
7:24pm: Washington is a “serious threat” to land Heyward, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com reports on Twitter.
3:45pm: The Nationals are the “mystery team” pursuing free agent outfielder Jason Heyward, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. They are joined in the chase for Heyward by the Cubs and Cardinals, per the report.
It’s not known which of those clubs — if not another — is in the lead, but Heyman adds in another tweet that Heyward has at least one offer at or over $200MM on the table. That’s not exactly surprising, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted Heyward would reach the double-century mark, but does appear to suggest that he’ll be in position to maximize his potential market value.
Heyward’s youth and broad skillset make him a tantalizing target even for clubs that otherwise seem set in the outfield, as I explained in breaking down Heyward’s free agent case in late October. He’s a very good, but not great, hitter who has never returned to the power ceiling he showed earlier in his career. But he’s at the top of the class in basically every other area.
It’s possible that Washington would utilize Heyward in center field were he to land there, Heyman suggests. While the team has youngster Michael A. Taylor lined up to take over there, he’s still raw. It’s worth bearing in mind, too, that veteran Jayson Werth has only two years left on his deal and could ultimately stand to receive added rest given his nagging injuries over the years. While trades could be considered in the wake of a signing, it’s also possible to imagine Heyward splitting his time up the middle and in the corner for some time as the teams waits to see what happens with its other options.
Nationals, Angels Swap Yunel Escobar, Trevor Gott
6:52pm: Around $1.5MM is headed to head to L.A., per DiGiovanna (via Twitter).
5:47pm: The teams have announced the swap, with the Nats saying an undisclosed amount of cash will go with Escobar to Los Angeles.
4:25pm: Gott tweets that he’s been informed of the deal and is indeed joining the Nationals.
Righty Michael Brady is the other player going to Washington, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter. Though he’s closing in on 29 years of age and was hit hard in a 17-appearance run at Triple-A in 2014, Brady is coming off of an impressive 2015 campaign at the Double-A level. He made 19 starts after working almost exclusively as a reliever in prior years, and ended up throwing 119 1/3 innings of 3.77 ERA ball while logging 8.5 K/9 against 0.9 BB/9.
2:56pm: The Winter Meetings are wrapping up, but clubs still aren’t done dealing. The Angels and Nationals have reportedly agreed to a swap that will send versatile infielder Yunel Escobar to the Angels in exchange for hard-throwing young righty Trevor Gott and a second, yet-unnamed minor leaguer.
The 33-year-old Escobar will fill a significant need for the Angels while also allowing general manager Billy Eppler and his staff to remain flexible. Escobar is a capable defender at second base or third base — both positions of need to the Halos — freeing Eppler to pursue upgrades at either spot despite effectively already having filled one of the voids.
Escobar batted .314/.375/.415 with the Nats last season and saw all of his time on the field at third base, though there was also talk of playing him at second base before Anthony Rendon was sidelined for most of the season due to injury. Escobar hasn’t played second base since 2007 but has worked extensively at shortstop in recent seasons, though defensive metrics were down on his work there in 2014 with the Rays.
Escobar gives the Angels an affordable option in the infield, as he’s slated to earn $7MM this season and has a $7MM club option for the 2017 season as well. That should keep the Angels well below the luxury tax threshold, especially since the average annual value of his two-year, $13MM contract is a slightly lower $6.5MM.
The Angels were said last week to be in talks with David Freese about a reunion at third base, and while this doesn’t preclude that from happening due to Escobar’s stated versatility, he does have more experience at the hot corner. Additionally, he brings another right-handed bat to an Angels team that has, over the past six months, been said to be seeking some balance in the lineup, perhaps indicating that a left-handed second baseman would be a better fit than a right-handed third baseman. Indeed, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Angels’ plan is to use Escobar at third base, though he notes that the newest Halos acquisition could be moved to second base in the event of a Freese return.
For the Nationals, the deal continues president/GM Mike Rizzo’s efforts to revamp a bullpen that proved problematic throughout the 2015 season. Gott, 23, debuted with the Halos in 2015 and recorded a strong 3.02 ERA in 47 2/3 innings while averaging a blistering 96.2 mph on his fastball. However, in spite of that plus heat, Gott averaged just 5.1 K/9 while also averaging 3.0 walks per nine. Gott also averaged better than a strikeout per inning over the course of his minor league career, though, so there’s hope for additional missed bats as he gains more experience in the Majors. And, the Nationals have to be intrigued by his excellent 57.2 percent ground-ball rate.
Washington will control Gott for a full six seasons, as he fell shy of a full year of service in 2015. Not only that, but he finished the year with 114 days of big league service time, which should leave him shy of Super Two designation, meaning he’ll only be arbitration eligible three times. Gott will be one of several new faces in a re-worked Nats bullpen, joining lefty Oliver Perez and, presumably, right-hander Shawn Kelley (if his much-debated contract is ultimately finalized). Righty Yusmeiro Petit figures to see action in the bullpen as well, although he could also see some work in the rotation, depending on how the rest of the offseason shakes out.
Jon Morosi of FOX Sports first reported that the two sides were discussing a deal. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported that the agreement was in place (on Twitter). Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com reported Gott’s inclusion in the deal (links to Twitter). Heyman tweeted that another minor leaguer was headed to the Nats.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Angels, Nationals Discussing Yunel Escobar Trade
The Angels and Nationals are in talks on a trade that would send infielder Yunel Escobar to Anaheim, reports Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link).
Escobar, 33, is coming off one of the strongest seasons of his career, having batted .314/.375/.415 with nine home runs in his first season with the Nats. He’s certainly a reasonable target for Halos GM Billy Eppler to pursue, given the team’s needs around the infield and Escobar’s defensive versatility. Escobar could hold down the fort at either second base or third base for the Angels next season, which would allow Eppler to maintain flexibility as he continues plotting the Angels’ course this offseason.
NL East Notes: Inciarte, Storen, Blackmon, Span, Colon, Braves
The Braves‘ impressive haul for right-hander Shelby Miller is one one of the biggest storylines of the past week, but there are already rumblings about one of the key pieces of the deal; Ender Inciarte has drawn a lot of interest since the trade, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link), who adds that the Cubs are one team that has inquired. Rosenthal reports that they haven’t engaged in any type of serious trade discussions, although ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets that he got the sense that the Braves are at least open to the idea of flipping Inciarte to another team in a further trade. One executive told Stark that as many as 12 teams have inquired on Inciarte, though he does add that rival teams don’t consider a trade to be particularly likely.
Here’s the latest from the NL East…
- The Twins have reached out to the Nationals to inquire on right-hander Drew Storen, reports James Wagner of the Washington Post (Twitter link). There’s nothing on the horizon at this point, however, he adds. Still, Minnesota has been prominently linked to Storen in previous seasons, so it’ll be interesting to see if they take that interest to another level this winter, when Storen is said to be available in trades.
- Sticking with the Nats, Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com tweets that Washington has talked with the Rockies about outfielder Charlie Blackmon, but the asking price on the 29-year-old center fielder is said to be quite high. Corey Dickerson could be in play, too, Kerzel notes, though he doesn’t specify that the Nationals have spoken to Colorado about him, specifically.
- The Mets still have interest in both Denard Span and Gerardo Parra, reports Newsday’s Marc Carig, and the club hasn’t completely ruled out a multi-year deal for either player if it proves necessary (Twitter link). A multi-year deal would seem to be imperative in talks with either player, as Parra reportedly has three-year offers in hand already, while agent Scott Boras dismissed the notion of a one-year deal for Span yesterday when asked by MLBTR’s Zach Links.
- The Mets have had preliminary talks with right-hander Bartolo Colon‘s camp about a reunion, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. While Colon probably wouldn’t hold down a rotation spot all season in Queens barring an injury to one of the Mets’ excellent young starters, he could be a valuable stopgap early in the year as Zack Wheeler progresses in his Tommy John rehab.
- Braves president John Hart and GM John Coppolella explained the team’s rebuilding process to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman while at the Winter Meetings in Nashville. Coppolella likened the rebuild to constructing a skyscraper, stressing the importance of building from the ground up in an an effort to deliver a sustainable run of success to Braves fans. He added that building a deep core of talent will help to prevent second-half collapses like the Braves have endured in recent seasons. Hart called many of the trades made by Atlanta “painful” but explained that each has been made with the same goal in mind: constructing a perennial World Series contender.
NL East Notes: Harper, CarGo, Ozuna, Fernandez, Cabrera
Agent Scott Boras says that if the Nationals want to extend Bryce Harper, they’ll have to initiate talks, Nats Insider’s Mark Zuckerman writes. “I think those are club dynamics,” Boras said Wednesday. “Whenever any team approaches me about any player, obviously we have dialogue with them. But at this point in time, Bryce is going to be there for three more years, very happy there. So we’ll just go forward.” The Nats control Harper through 2018, and GM Mike Rizzo recently suggested that extending him wasn’t the most pressing issue for him right now. “We’ve got quite a bit of control left on him,” said Rizzo earlier this week. “I’m sure that’ll be a discussion with myself and ownership in the future.” Of course, signing Harper long-term would be incredibly difficult, given his agent, his free agency timeline and the difficulty of establishing what an extension for a player so talented and so young ought to look like. There also doesn’t seem to be any progress toward an extension for starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg, Zuckerman writes. Here’s more from the NL East.
- The Nationals had interest in a trade involving Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies at one point, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. There is currently nothing brewing between the two teams, however. The Rockies are reportedly willing to deal Gonzalez, as well as Corey Dickerson and/or Charlie Blackmon.
- The Marlins aren’t currently actively looking to trade Marcell Ozuna, ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets. They’re still open to offers, but it now appears more likely Ozuna will remain with the organization than that he’ll depart. Earlier this week it was reported that seven or more teams had interest in Ozuna, and the outfielder has been the subject of trade rumors for some time now, although Marlins exec Michael Hill recently denied that his team was shopping Ozuna. In any case, if the Marlins do ultimately decide to part with Ozuna, there will surely continue to be significant interest, since he’s barely 25, has lots of raw power, can play center field, and has held his own in parts of three big-league seasons.
- The Marlins continue to discuss Jose Fernandez with “five or six teams,” a source tells FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi (who reports the news on Twitter). The Marlins’ price for Fernandez unsurprisingly and understandably remains high, and the team doesn’t appear to be particularly close to a trade. Here’s more on Fernandez.
- The Braves had interest in infielder Asdrubal Cabrera before Cabrera ultimately agreed to terms with the Mets, Morosi tweets. It’s unclear where Cabrera would have fit with the Braves, but there surely would have been ample playing time in shaky infield that currently features Jace Peterson, Erick Aybar and Adonis Garcia as potential starters at second, shortstop and third, respectively. The Braves added utilityman Emilio Bonifacio today, and 3B/2B Gordon Beckham last week.
Nationals To Sign Yusmeiro Petit
11:57pm: The deal between the Nationals and Petit is in place, a source tells MLBTR (links to Twitter). He’ll earn a $3MM guarantee on a one-year deal, taking home $2.5MM in 2016 plus a $3MM club option for the 2017 season that comes with a $500K buyout and vests upon reaching 80 innings pitched.
8:04pm: Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Nationals have reached a one-year deal with right-hander Yusmeiro Petit, who was recently non-tendered by the Giants. A source tells MLBTR, though, that while an agreement is in indeed close, there’s still no deal in place.
Petit, who just turned 31, has spent the past four years with San Francisco where he’s worked to a combined 3.66 ERA with 8.8 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 while splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. He’ll give the Nationals an option for the final spot in their rotation or could also be deployed in a multi-inning relief capacity — a role in which he thrived with the Giants. While Petit doesn’t throw particularly hard, averaging about 88 mph on his fastball, he’s nonetheless generated above-average swinging-strike rates over his tenure with the Giants, though he took a step back in that regard last season.
Petit is perhaps best-known for setting a Major League record in 2014 when he retired 46 consecutive batters over the course of the summer, narrowly eclipsing Mark Buehrle’s previous record of 45 straight. The Nats know Petit well, as he cemented himself in San Francisco lore by delivering six shutout innings of relief with seven strikeouts in Game 2 of the 2014 NLDS against the Nationals — an 18-inning marathon affair in which Petit was credited with the win.