NL East Notes: Soto, Mets, Rocker
In addition to the 13-year, $350MM extension offer that Juan Soto reportedly turned down prior to the lockout, it was recently reported that Soto rejected a second offer after the lockout. The specific financial details of that second offer haven’t been publicly revealed, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that it was for “at least” $400MM.
$400MM would be a significant symbolic barrier to cross, as it would be the first time an MLB player surpassed that threshold. The current record for the largest guarantee is the $365MM in new money given to Mookie Betts when he agreed to an extension with the Dodgers. Soto says that he’s still open to an extension, but it seems like it might take more than a record-breaking contract to get it done.
Other notes from the NL East…
- From the same Nightengale piece, he relays that the Mets plan on being aggressive at the trade deadline but without giving up their top prospects. Instead, they would prefer to make deals by taking on large contracts from other teams. This wouldn’t be the first time they considered this approach, as the Mets reportedly were in discussions with the Padres this offseason on a deal that would have sent Dominic Smith to San Diego in exchange for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan, Eric Hosmer and $30MM to help cover Hosmer’s salary. The deal ended up falling through due to the Mets’ medical staff growing concerned with the medical records of Paddack, who ended up requiring Tommy John surgery after being traded to the Twins instead. The new CBA added a fourth luxury tax line at the $290MM mark, which the Mets have pushed themselves right up against. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates their current luxury tax number to be $289.4MM, but it seems the division-leading Mets are willing to push over the line in order to bolster the club for the final push. They apparently won’t be dipping deep into their farm system, which is ranked the 16th in the league by Baseball America, but should get a boost at the upcoming draft when they will make two out of the first 14 picks.
- The reason the Mets have an extra first round draft pick is because of last year’s Kumar Rocker saga. The Mets selected him 10th overall and were apparently going to offer him a $6MM bonus, $1.26MM above slot value, until they grew concerned by something in his throwing elbow during a post-draft medical evaluation and withdrew their offer. Now a report from Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan of ESPN relays that Rocker underwent shoulder surgery in September. Rocker’s agent Scott Boras characterized the procedure as “a minor scope” in the piece. Rocker signed with the Tri-City ValleyCats of the independent Frontier League in preparation for re-entering the draft this year. Through five starts, he’s pitched 20 innings with a 1.35 ERA, 32 strikeouts and four walks. Despite the surgery, Jim Callis of MLB.com believes that Rocker has shown himself healthy enough to be selected at some point in the first round of the draft, which begins on July 17.
Injury Notes: Suarez, Soto, Montas
The Phillies have placed starter Ranger Suarez on the 15-day injured list because of lower back spasms, retroactive to June 30, per the club. The Phillies had boasted one of the healthier rotations this season before losing both Suarez and Zach Eflin to the injured list this week. A corresponding roster move will likely be made before Tuesday’s game against the Nationals. The Phillies have an off day tomorrow to set up their rotation. In other injury news…
- Juan Soto left today’s Nationals’ game with an apparent hamstring injury. It was later revealed to be tightness in Soto’s left calf that prompted his departure. He will have an MRI and be re-evaluated tomorrow, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Obviously, it would be crushing for the Nationals to lose Soto for any amount of time. Even with him, the Nats don’t have much hope for postseason play, but Soto remains the best and brightest attraction at Nats Park.
- Athletics starter Frankie Montas left today’s start early after seeing a drop in velocity, per MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos. Montas’ heater was 2.4 mph slower than usual, while his sinker was 2.7 mph slower on average, notes Gallegos. The initial diagnosis is inflammation, reports Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle, but they will need more time to evaluate. Not only is Montas Oakland’s nominal ace, but he’s been one of the more sought-after arms when it comes to the August 2nd trade deadline. A significant arm injury would obviously derail any plans to use the righty as a trade chip.
Aaron Barrett To Retire
After 11 professional seasons, right-hander Aaron Barrett announced (via Twitter) that he is retiring from baseball. The 34-year-old said he’ll pitch in his final game on Monday, July 4, as a member of the Phillies’ Triple-A affiliate.
Barrett began his pro career when the Nationals selected him in the ninth round of the 2010 draft, though Barrett had also been taken (but didn’t sign) in the 2006, 2008, and 2009 drafts by the Dodgers, Twins, and Rangers, respectively. This began a run in the Washington that lasted until Barrett inked a minor league deal with the Phillies this past winter, and Barrett’s final season has been a struggle, with a 13.86 ERA over 12 1/3 innings for Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
As Barrett put it in his goodbye message, “I went into this year thinking this could be my last run. I gave it EVERYTHING I had. It didn’t go the way I thought it could. That’s life! It’s time for me to start the next chapter of my life.”
Barrett appeared in parts of four MLB seasons, with most of that work coming in the 2014-15 seasons when he posted a 3.47 ERA over 70 innings and 90 relief appearances. The rest of his big league resume consists of four total innings across the 2019-20 campaigns. The gap in between those Major League stints perhaps defines Barrett’s character, as his promising was sidetracked by both a Tommy John surgery, and then a fractured humerus bone.
The latter injury was particularly devastating, as Barrett broke his arm in horrific fashion while pitching, and extensive surgery was required. However, Barrett’s long road back eventually led him to once again pitch in the majors — fans may recall the viral video of Double-A manager Matt LeCroy fighting back tears while telling Barrett that he had been promoted back to the Nationals’ active roster. While Barrett only tossed 2 1/3 innings for the 2019 Nationals, he was still part of a World Series championship team.
We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Barrett on his career, and we wish him the best in his post-playing endeavors.
Juan Soto Open To Extension Discussions With Nationals
JULY 2: In another update from Dougherty, he reports that the Nationals’ latest offers to Soto haven’t included any deferred money. Just about all of the Nats’ biggest expenditures in recent years have included heavy deferrals — for instance, Stephen Strasburg’s seven-year, $245MM contract contained $80MM is deferred money.
JULY 1: Soto spoke with Dougherty on Friday, backtracking somewhat on his previously expressed desire to play out his arbitration years to test free agency. “Everybody wants to go to free agency and see how the market is going to be for them,” Soto told the Post. “But for me, I really don’t know if I want to go there or if I want to stay here. I feel really good here. We’ll see what’s going to happen. For me, right now, the plan that we always have is go year by year. But you don’t know what the future has for you.”
Asked whether he’d consider signing an extension with the Nats, Soto replied “Yes. Why not?” He suggested he’s content with Boras and the front office discussing potential terms during the season, saying he prefers to “to be far from (negotiations) because I want to concentrate on the game.”
JUNE 30: The Nationals made an extension offer to Juan Soto at some point this spring, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Specific timing of the proposal isn’t clear, but Dougherty adds that it’s believed the offer was made before Soto’s agent Scott Boras visited Nationals Park in late May. Soto rejected the offer, but Dougherty characterizes discussions between the two sides as “active.”
It’s at least the second offer the Nationals have put forth to the face of the franchise within the past 12 months. In February, Soto told Enrique Rojas of ESPN he’d rejected a long-term overture made prior to the lockout. Rojas reported the pre-lockout offer would’ve been for 13 years and $350MM guaranteed. Dougherty reports the Nationals went beyond $350MM in their spring proposal, but specific terms are unknown. Both Dougherty (Twitter link) and Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic (on Twitter) hear that rumors of a 13-year, $425MM offer are inaccurate.
In any event, the relatively recent proposal is the latest indication the Nationals are hopeful they can keep Soto around for the long haul. It’s at least somewhat notable that discussions remain open even after Soto again declined. In his February interview with Rojas, the two-time Silver Slugger Award winner expressed a desire to proceed year-by-year through the arbitration process in anticipation of reaching free agency at the end of the 2024 season. That wasn’t due to any expressed animosity towards the Nationals organization, but rather a desire to market himself to all 30 teams with a good chance at a record-setting payday.
Without specific terms of the proposal, it’s impossible to pin down precisely where the latest offer stacked up among the biggest in major league history. At worst, it’d have marked the third-largest guarantee ever. Only two players have ever topped the $350MM mark. Mookie Betts received 12 years and $365MM from the Dodgers on his July 2020 extension, while Mike Trout took home ten years and $360MM in new money on his March 2019 extension.
As was the case when Soto turned down $350MM over the winter, many fans are sure to bristle at the notion of rejecting a proposal at an even greater amount. That’s particularly true in the context of what’s been a relative “down year,” at least in comparison to his pre-2022 performance. Soto enters play Thursday with a .224/.375/.437 slash line. Those are the lowest such marks of his career across the board, as he’d hit at least .282 with an on-base percentage above .400 and a slugging percentage north of .500 every season from 2018-21.
Nevertheless, the first three months of this season are unlikely to have a depressing effect on Soto’s long-term value. For one, his relatively underwhelming numbers would still be a strong showing for the majority of players. Soto’s on-base and slugging marks are decidedly above the respective .312 and .394 league figures. His .224 batting average is certainly not ideal, but that’s in large part attributable to a .225 average on balls in play that’s the fifth-lowest number for qualified hitters. Soto’s average exit velocity and hard contact rate are down somewhat, so the lesser batted ball results can’t be chalked up solely to misfortune. Yet his quality of contact metrics have still been solid, and considering he entered the season owner of a .330 career BABIP, Soto seems likely to enjoy better ball-in-play results moving forward.
Owner of a .290/.424/.534 career line with more walks than strikeouts, Soto is still on track for an eye-popping payday. He amazingly won’t turn 24 until October and would hit free agency in advance of his age-26 season. Once there, he still looks a good bet to top the record $36MM average annual value for position players over more than a decade, assuming he stays healthy. A deal in excess of $400MM seems likely, and it’s not out of the question Soto and his reps could set their sights on the half-billion dollar mark. (Getting to $500MM would likely require a 13-year term at an AAV just shy of $38.5MM).
There’s of course some risk for Soto in continuing to turn down offers that’d make him among the highest-paid players in league history. Every player has some risk of a drop-off in performance or severe injury. Soto, though, will have already banked more than $25MM in arbitration earnings by the end of this season. He’ll go through the arb process twice more and figures to make another $50+MM over the next couple years before reaching the open market.
Discussions with Soto come against a backdrop of possible change for the Nationals. The Lerner family has been looking into sale possibilities for the past few months. A potential ownership shakeup has led to some uncertainty for president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez, each of whom are in the final guaranteed year of their contracts and have 2023 options that need to be decided upon next month.
The roster has undergone a major overhaul dating back to last summer’s trade deadline. Washington has kicked off a rebuild and seen the departures of key contributors to their 2019 World Series team like Max Scherzer, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner. The Nats enter play tonight 20 games below .500, and they’re certain to move impending free agents Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz over the next four and a half weeks. They’ve not given much, if any, consideration to dealing Soto in a franchise-altering blockbuster. Rizzo flatly shot down speculation about a Soto trade four weeks ago, saying the Nationals “have every intention of building this team around” him.
Héctor Gómez of Z101 was first to report fairly recent discussions between Soto and the Nationals this afternoon.
Nationals Exercise 2023 Options On Mike Rizzo, Dave Martinez
The Nationals announced that they have exercised the 2023 contract options of both president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez.
This concludes a bit of drama that has been surrounding the team in recent months. It was reported in May that both Rizzo and Martinez were in the final guaranteed years of their respective deals. Given that the club was mired in a roster teardown and that the Lerner family was exploring a possible sale of the club, it was certainly noteworthy that the team’s manager and primary front office member were both in lame duck status.
However, the organization has given itself a small bit more certainty about its future, with Rizzo and Martinez each locked in for at least one more season. Back in May, there were conflicting reports about Martinez’s salary for next year, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today placing it at $4MM, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post said $3.5MM. However, in reporting on today’s news, Nightengale used the $3.5MM figure. Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post relays that Martinez met with Lerner Sports COO Alan Gottlieb today, ahead of the July 15 deadline for the club to decide on both options.
Rizzo has overseen many different eras of Nationals’ baseball, having first been hired by the team in 2006. After many losing seasons, the club emerged as contenders in 2012 and stayed there for the remainder of that decade, making the playoffs five times and winning the World Series in 2019. However, their fortunes have slipped in recent years, which led to the club undergoing a massive selloff at last year’s trade deadline. That has unsurprisingly led to this season’s 29-50 record, better than only the Reds among National League teams. Martinez, on the other hand, was hired prior to the 2018 season and was at the helm of the team during competitive years, including the World Series victory. Now he has transitioned into overseeing a rebuild, with much of the roster composed of younger players auditioning to be part of the next core.
Despite the extra certainty afforded by these decisions, they also represent a kicking of the can down the road, in a sense. The same lame duck situation could still arise one year from now, unless contract extensions are worked out in the interim. The potential sale of the club still lingers in the air. Then there’s the Juan Soto situation, as the club’s superstar is slated to reach free agency after the 2024 season. Reporting in recent days has revealed that the potential of an extension is still in the cards, though Soto reportedly rejected a 13-year, $350MM offer before the lockout and some unknown, presumably-higher offer after it. That’s still a lot for the club to work out, though they’ve given themselves some time to work on it by knocking a couple of items off the to-do list.
Nationals Designate Sam Clay For Assignment
The Nationals have designated left-hander Sam Clay for assignment, per a team announcement. His spot on the 26-man and 40-man roster will go to righty Mason Thompson, who has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. Washington also optioned catcher Riley Adams to Triple-A Rochester and recalled fellow backstop Tres Barrera in his place.
Clay, 29, signed a big league deal with the Nats in the 2020-21 offseason despite never having pitched at the Major League level. The former Twins fourth-rounder had posted solid numbers between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019 before the canceled 2020 minor league season, with his enormous 71.2% ground-ball rate likely holding particular appeal for the Nats.
Unfortunately, things haven’t panned out as the Nationals or Clay himself hoped upon signing that deal. He made his big league debut in 2021 when he tossed 45 innings out of Davey Martinez’s bullpen, but Clay’s 5.60 ERA was one of many contributing factors to a disastrous Nationals season. Clay posted an excellent 60.1% grounder rate last year but also turned in a well below-average 15.9% strikeout rate and a fairly bloated 10.3% walk rate.
So far in 2022, things haven’t gone much better. While Clay has a solid 3.10 ERA, 21.7% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 64.5% ground-ball rate in 20 1/3 Triple-A frames, he’s again been ineffective against big leaguers. He’s pitched 4 1/3 innings for the Nats this season, yielding five runs on three hits and three walks as well as four hit batsmen in that time. That shaky performance has inflated his career ERA in the Majors to 6.02.
Clay has a decent track record in the upper minors, one minor league option remaining beyond this season, and a clear ability to induce grounders — all of which could conceivably hold some appeal to another club with different ideas about how to maximize his results. The Nats will have a week to trade him, pass him through outright waivers or release him.
Replacing Clay on the roster will be the 24-year-old Thompson — a hard-throwing, 6’7″ righty who came to the Nats last summer in the deadline deal that shipped reliever Daniel Hudson to the Padres. Thompson, a third-round pick by San Diego back in 2016, pitched just one scoreless inning this season before landing on the injured list with a biceps strain that has kept him out since.
He made his MLB debut last season, tossing 24 2/3 innings between the Padres and Nats. In that time, Thompson logged a 4.01 ERA with more questionable secondary marks, including a 19% strikeout rate and 12.4% walk rate. He sat at 96.3 mph with his sinker and kept 50% of the balls in play against him on the ground, however, and his slider is considered an above-average offering as well.
As for the swap behind the dish, Adams will head to Rochester and presumably receive the regular playing time that has eluded him behind fellow rookie Keibert Ruiz this season. The 26-year-old has appeared in 27 games and tallied just 88 plate appearances so far this season, batting .192/.284/.321 along the way. Adams has plenty of raw power and consistently high walk rates, but he only played in a total of 36 Triple-A games before being called to the Majors. The Nats apparently feel it’d be better for his development to get more consistent looks in Rochester than playing sparsely behind Ruiz.
The 27-year-old Barrera, meanwhile, was hitting .256/.342/.439 in Triple-A and has long projected as a possible backup catcher. The Nats selected him in the sixth round back in 2016, and he’ll now get another look in the big leagues. He appeared in 30 games last season and hit .264/.374/.385 through 107 plate appearances.
Phillies Sign Jace Fry To Minor League Deal
The Phillies have signed left-hander Jace Fry to a minor league contract, as first indicated on the transaction log at MLB.com. The Northwest Sports Management client will head for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Fry opened the season with the Nationals, but I’m told he recently opted out of that contract. (The opt-out date in his Nationals deal had been set for May, but Fry was on the Covid-related IL at the time, and the Nats agreed to honor the opt-out clause at a later time.)
The 28-year-old Fry has accrued nearly four years of Major League service time across parts of the past five seasons — all coming as a member of the White Sox. Chicago’s third-round selection in the 2014 draft, Fry reached the Majors in 2017 and became a consistent presence in the South Siders’ Major League bullpen beginning in 2018. From 2018-20, he pitched to a combined 4.43 ERA with strong strikeout and ground-ball rates (29.6% and 51.2%, respectively) across 126 innings — albeit against a 13.7% walk rate that he’d surely like to scale down a ways.
Fry landed on the injured list late in 2020 due to back spasms and eventually underwent a microdiscectomy procedure. The lefty spent the first three months of the 2021 season on the injured list and pitched well in Triple-A upon activation (2.93 ERA in 40 innings). However, Fry was tagged for eight runs over 6 2/3 innings with the big league team (mostly in September) and was sent outright off the roster following the season. He signed a minor league deal with Washington back on March 21.
So far in 2022, Fry has tallied 14 1/3 innings with Triple-A Rochester, during which time he’s yielded six runs on 14 hits and eight walks with 20 punchouts — good for a 3.77 ERA. He’s sporting a huge 57.6% ground-ball rate there and has fanned 31.7% of his opponents, but he’s also continued to walk too many hitters (12.7%).
Phillies relievers rank 19th in the Majors with a 4.05 ERA, and the team is generally thin on left-handed bullpen depth beyond offseason addition Brad Hand. Fellow southpaw Jose Alvarado has struggled to a 5.95 ERA through 19 2/3 innings this season, while waiver pickup Ryan Sherriff hasn’t pitched so far due to a shoulder strain.
Down in Triple-A, Damon Jones is on the 40-man roster but is also the injured list in Triple-A and hasn’t pitched since May 19. Southpaws Bailey Falter and Cristopher Sanchez are pitching well there and, like Jones, are on the 40-man roster. However, they’re stretched out and pitching out of the IronPigs’ rotation at the moment. Fry will join that group and give the Phils an experienced lefty to consider for the big league ‘pen if he continues throwing well in his new environs.
Nationals Sign John Nogowski To Minor League Deal
The Nationals have signed first baseman/outfielder John Nogowski to a minor league contract, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. He’ll head to Double-A Harrisburg for the time being.
Nogowski, 29, has seen big league time in part of two seasons, including 52 games between the Cardinals and Pirates in 2021. He posted a combined .233/.301/.310 batting line in that small sample of 143 trips to the plate and became a minor league free agent when the Bucs released him from their Triple-A affiliate in September. Nogowski signed a minor league deal with the Giants that ran through the end of the 2022 season, but he was selected by the Braves in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft and opened the year with Atlanta’s top affiliate in Gwinnett.
The lefty-hitting Nogowski managed just a .234/.338/.323 line with a pair of home runs in 148 plate appearances with the Stripers. He drew walks at an excellent 12.2% clip and had a solid 19.6% strikeout rate, but he didn’t make much of an impact from a power perspective. Nogowski’s career track record in the upper minors is more impressive, as he owns a .260/.376/.407 mark through parts of three Triple-A seasons.
That Nogowski will head to Harrisburg instead of Triple-A Rochester suggests he’s fairly low on the organizational depth chart at the moment. MLB first baseman Josh Bell is very likely to be traded within the next six weeks, though. Jake Noll and minor league journeyman Joey Meneses have split most of the first base time in Rochester this year. Noll has struggled, but the 30-year-old Meneses has a .303/.353/.526 line through 64 contests.
Nationals Release Dee Strange-Gordon
The Nationals have requested unconditional release waivers for Dee Strange-Gordon, per the team. The infielder/outfielder was designated for the assignment last week. This means two things: no team put a claim in on him, and Strange-Gordon did not want to accept an assignment to the minor leagues.
Given those two facts, it’s not easy to see where Strange-Gordon will find his way back to the Majors. That said, his speed is a truly exceptional talent, and there’s always room in the game for it on a limited basis. We have seen speedsters like Strange-Gordon used as playoff specialists in the past, so that’s a potential role for him down the line. For now, however, it would seem unlikely that he finds a long-term home.
Strange-Gordon was signed by the Nationals this winter on a non-guaranteed minor league deal. He went on to hit .305/.305/.356 in 59 plate appearances with three stolen bases in five attempts. For Strange-Gordon it was more of the same, with low walk rates and minimal power limiting his offensive utility. His speed is dynamic, and if he can get on base enough to utilize it, he has a weapon worth unleasing. Right now, however, the 34-year-old will have to wait and look for a new opportunity.
Roster Moves: Blue Jays, Nationals
The Blue Jays have placed Trevor Richards on the 15-day injured list with a neck strain and recalled Matt Gage to take his roster spot, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (via Twitter). The oft-used Richards actually leads the American League right now with 29 appearances, though the aggregate numbers are none too impressive for the veteran righty. Richards owns a 6.59 ERA/5.79 FIP with a 33-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Richards has particularly struggled of late, with a 13.50 ERA over his last eight appearances.
- The Nationals placed rookie Evan Lee on the 15-day injured list with a left flexor strain, recalling reliever Andres Machado to take his roster spot, per Jessica Camerato of MLB.com (via Twitter). Lee had been pitching out of the bullpen, leaving his appearance yesterday with the injury. Machado helps the bullpen immediately, which is especially important after a doubleheader yesterday. Machado, 29, has made 17 appearances on the year for the Nats with a 5.48 ERA/4.87 FIP across 23 innings.