Latest Mets/Soriano Rumor

A source of mine reports some info concerning the Mets' interest in Alfonso Soriano:

The Mets do want Soriano, but they'll only make a deal if the Nats will accept Kaz Matsui.  The Nats would use Matsui at shortstop and would also receive Victor Diaz.

Matsui will be out until mid-April with a sprained knee ligament.  He last played shortstop in 2004, appearing in 110 games there.

This morning, Soriano plans to announce whether he's willing to play left field for the Nationals.  The fact that he's even considering it leads me to believe that he will play out there.  Soriano refused to play LF on Monday and would likely be placed on the disqualified list if he refuses again.  He'd lose his salary and right to become a free agent after 2006 in that case. I'm pretty sure his agent is going to advise that he gives in.  Still, he may still be a trade candidate if he's enormously unhappy with the Nationals. 

Another note from the MLB.com article: it looks like Jon Daniels pulled one over on Jim Bowden.

"Texas denied Washington permission to talk to Soriano about a switch from second base to left field until the players took their physicals and the trade was official."

Diaz may start the season in Triple A, as Xavier Nady is the heavy favorite for right field for the Mets.

Comments

[Kermit]

That makes Jon Daniels the smartest GM in baseball.

[Zonis]

Not nessisarly, after all, he DID do the Eaton trade.

[TheRealDeal]

Once again, an uncomfirmed Mets source suggests a trade of NY crap for an All Star. Trust me - First the Nats won't deal Soriano to the division. Second, they won't give him away for garbage.

P.S. When is this board going to be renamed "Met Fantasies"?

[MadBravesFan]

Pretty much every board I read is filled with mets fantasies. Like the mets are good, the mets will win etc...

Anyway this trade would make zero sense to the nats, they would be better off just putting him on the DQ list if he refuses to play then do this.

[RumorMonger]

Are you kidding me? Soriano's trade value is at an all-time low and about two total teams can afford him and have an opening at 2B for him.

[RumorMonger]

Ah yes, they'd be better off receiving nothing than a young regular. Ah yes.

So your telling me that the mets get to trade a player who wasnt even going to start for them, Diaz, and a player they have been begging to dump almost since they got him Matsui for a All Star 2B. I know his value is low, but its not nearly that low.

Lets also add in the fact that Jim Bowden would rather put him on the DQ list then look bad trading him for virtually nothing to a division rival.. Ya thats gonna happen.

[Kyle]

I think as this trade is stated it wont happen because its too lopsided. But if the mets were to add Anderson Hernandez or another one of there prospects not named milledge or pelfrey than this could happen. Bowden needs to get something for Soriano to have any chance of keeping his job when new ownership comes.

[Vlad]

Wow, that'd be a terrible trade for Washington.

Bowden might as well start cleaning out his desk if he makes that deal. Diaz is kipple, and Matsui is a millstone.

[Conor]

It's really no secret Soriano hasn't wanted to move to the outfield. He's been pretty public about it over the years. He told the Yankees he wouldn't move. He told the Ranger he wouldn't move. What really made the Nat's think he'd move for them? They didn't need to talk to him about it. What they needed to do was trade for LF if they wanted an LF.

[Joh-mama]

Make it Milledge instead of Diaz, or keep Diaz and add a prospect pitcher like Humber, who despite the injury has upside.

[Bdid]

Hmm, take someone else's crap and dump his salary, or Keep him on the DQ list, get no production, have lost Wilkerson and a pretty good pitching prospect, and Sledge. Way to go Bowden, you really are sinking that ship (which had many holes to begin with). I will say Diaz would be an upgrade over the empty LF position they currently have, and Matsui, believe it or not, would be an upgrade over Guzman. So at least they'd be able to field a team by making this trade.
Come on Bowden, pull the trigger!!!

One last note, from what I gather, this isn't a Mets board...yes some fans are a bit dillusional, but all other teams fans are too!

[Bdid]

See, everyone is dillusional...

"Make it Milledge instead of Diaz"

Now that is funny...give up a top 10 prospect for a guy making 10 million for one season and then becoming a free agent and going back to the AL where the parks are more hitter friendly. That is another thing people are missing. Whoever gets this clown only has him for one year... Why would any team give up major talent for that?

[Kyle]

No way the mets trade milledge he is too good. I dont think the Mets want Soriano. Willie Randolph values good defense up the middle very highly. Anderson Hernandez gives that Soriano does not

[Teetz]

Do you think teams are going to be throwing top prospects to a guy who just didn't "show up" to play one day because he didn't get what he wanted? On top of which he makes 10 mil a year and isn't all that great as the media portrays him?

I would take him on the Cubs just to have Hairston out of my everyday lineup, but for nothing more than a couple of 3 star minor leaguers or Jerome Williams.

[AstoriaMetsFan]

The Mets are NOT interested in Soriano. They are interested in primarily defense at 2nd base to counter Delgado's lackluster defensive abilities at first. The team has plenty of offense and Soriano's power numbers will significantly decrease. And he strikes out. Alot. Soriano at this time would not be an attractive asset. The only trade at this point would be for a front of the rotation starting pitcher.

[Joh-mama]

Hey NY Met fan out there, do you remember Alex Escobar, the top NYM OF prospect from 4 years ago? He was hyped back then to be everything that Milledge is hyped to be today. The point is that these top prospects often don't pan out. Who's to say that Milledge isn't the next Escobar?

If you can get an established All Star in the prime of his career for a top prospect & the bad contract of Matsui, isn't it worth it? The odds of Milledge being as good as Soriano are moderate at best.

3 way deal. Walker to Baltimore. Matos to Nats. Soriano to Cubbies.

[Andrew]

It will take more than just Matos to get Soriano. Probably Rich Hill or someone similar.

[xxx]

I was at a Baseball Prospectus book signing, discussion, and Q & A last night with the two co-editors of this year's book and they spent a good five minutes just ranting and raving about how awful Jim Bowden is at his job. It was faaaantastic.

How can a GM really hold down a job in 2006 with no knowledge of park factors, basic statistically splits, and the relative value of counting stats. The thing I can't wrap my head around is how important Bowden is right now to the future of baseball in Washington - if the Nats do indeed stay there, you gotta figure there would be a brief grace period with the fans where the organization had a chance to build itself up from the low minors to the majors. There is no GM less qualified for this task in baseball than Bowden.

The guy was only successful in Cincy when under the watchful eye of Jack McKeon and Davey Johnson. And what's up with his loyalty to Bob Boone? Does Boone really have to be Bowden's right hand man wherever he goes? What does he even bring to the table?

Anyway back to the real topic here...Matsui and Diaz seems like decent value for Soriano at this point. Matsui is a free agent after '06, right? Assuming he is, the deal makes sense to me. If the Nats did add him to play short, they would have sunk far too much cash into the position - not that this is any reason not to make the deal per se, but maybe it'll help them realize that making enough boneheaded transactions (Guzman signing, of course) does indeed have consequences on the entire team. How bad is Guzman's injury anyway? If he is out for the year like they fear, I'd do the deal in a heartbeat from the Nats perspective. Then again, I still believe in Kaz Matsui so what do I know...

[Nick]

Soriano just announced he will be playing LF for the Nats and batting leadoff today.

[TheRealDeal]

Matsui and Diaz ARE NOT decent value for Soriano at this point, or any point. Please, please, just stop it with these stupid Mets trades where the Mets give up unwanted players for an All Star.

[RumorMonger]

What's with all this All-Star stuff? Soriano is a deeply, deeply flawed second baseman. He's not one of the ten best, he's worth about the same as a Mark Grudzielanek. Except he's paid $10MM. He's an OK guy to have around, but only at maybe $8MM and if your staff doesn't throw a lot of groundballs and if you hit him 6th or lower.

[RumorMonger]

He's the Tony Batista of baseball.

[Joh-mama]

He's made the All Star team the past 4 years. He is a perennial .280, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 30 SB player.

Defensively, he's terrible, there is no doubt. But to call him Tony Batista is absurd.

[RumorMonger]

All-Star elections are fairly meaningless in player evaluation. The process for choosing them is quite poor.

Batting average doesn't tell you nearly as much about a player as does OBP. And Soriano's OBP always sucks. Just like Batista's.

He does hit home runs, albeit aided by the best hitters' park in the AL.

100 RBI=function of his lineup and ballpark. Bad players drive in 100 all the time, Batista included. I think he drove in 110 once.

The steals add some value, and make up pretty much the only difference (besides salary and age) between he and Batista. But it's steals dude. They make up a tiny percentage of a player's value.

Soriano is very similar to Tony Batista.

[bobo]

I said it in another thread. Soriano may have _negative_ trade value. Yes, his offensive stats are ok (power and speed numbers hide the truth - aka OPS outside of Arlington). But he's making $10 Million a year.

Purely hypothetical: What if Pujols was somehow making $150M a year? Would an offer of Victor Diaz for him be an insult because "he's Albert Pujols, he's the best, I love him"? No - you have to consider the economic aspects of it. And Soriano at at $10M is, in all likelyhood, a negative for team.

Of course Matsui is much worse, and makes what - $7M? So the Mets would have to include some money in this deal I think - 2 or 3 million (so they'd essentially be paying Soriano $6M or so, plus giving up Diaz). That seems about right.

[Bdid]

Comparing Escbar to Milledge is foolish. Sorry, Escobar was considered a great prospect UNTIL HE STARTED PLAYING MINOR LEAGUE BALL!!! He was never good at the higher Minor level...Milledge is hitting over 340 this spring at Major league camp, batted well over .300 in AA, and is a can't miss. Escobar wasn't a can't miss, just a top tier prospect until everyone realized he had nothing behind his skills. No way would the Mets consider Milledge for Soriano, even straight up. They said no to Zito if it would involve Lastings. But somehow this "great second baseman" who is the equivalent of the 2003-2004 Mike Cameron (30 hr's, 100 RBI, 150 K's) is worth him? Come on now, think logically!

[Bdid]

And for those screaming "equal value"

Lets remember some of the moves that have been made recently...

Delgado for Jacobs and Petit: Equal???

Not every move is made on talent level alone...sometimes other variables come along...like not wanting to play!!!

[Mets Fan]

The problem with Soriano is a GM like Minaya might be tempted to sign him longterm and, worse yet, a manager like Randolph might be tempted to bat him 2nd because he's a 'proven veteran,' a 'contact hitter,' and a 'run producer.' Pass.

FYI, a Matsui for Soriano trade might make sense because I bet a healthy Matsui can put up a 750-780 OPS, which isn't far off from what a healthy Soriano can do in Washington. The only difference is Matsui is actually a mentsch of a guy, freely moving from ss to 2b for the team, and Matsui makes only 6m this year. If there's any inequality in the trade, Diaz fills the gap; he's a natural born hitter with a terrible glove, and I bet a guy like Bowden really values Diaz's ability to make contact and hit for power (his value is somewhat diminished by his lack of ability to get on base, but neither GM seems to care too much about that).

[Erik]

Ruben Sierra drove in 101 runs in 1993. His numbers? 233/.288/.390!

The point i'm making is that RBI's are counting stats. Just because someone drives in a load of runs doesn't make him a good player. Of course, there are exceptions on the extreme ends. However, OBP is, far and away, the best method of evaluating a player, IMO. It indicates whether the player can get on base even when mired in a deep slump. THIS IS iMPORTANT. SORIANO DOES IT POORLY.

*drops the keyboard in a Chris Rock-like fashion*

[Joh-mama]

"Comparing Escbar to Milledge is foolish. Sorry, Escobar was considered a great prospect UNTIL HE STARTED PLAYING MINOR LEAGUE BALL!!!"

It sure doesn't seem that foolish.

According to Baseball America, considered by all the standard when projecting minor leaguers, Alex Escobar was the Mets top prospect in 1999, 2000 and 2001. He was ranked #11 in their Top 100 in 1999 and #18 in 2001.

Milledge was ranked #9 in 2006.

Apparently a #9 ranking means you are a "can't miss" and a #11 means you are just "top tier." Thanks, I learned something new today.

[TheRealDeal]

So now Matsui has more value because he'll switch positions and Soriano won't (until this afernoon). Talk about over valuing intangibles. Is there anybody here who thinks that Matsui and Diaz for Soriano is a fair deal not a Mets fan?

[Eric]

Getting on base is good, however, someone has to knock them in. There is room on any team for a guy who just drives people in. The question is, do the Mets already have one of those? If he is driving in over 100 runs he still has to be doing something right. He's no Ted Williams but he's no Rey Ordonez either. I bring up Rey bec. he had good defense and no bat. Which one is still around Ordonez or Soriano?

[Joh-mama]

"Batting average doesn't tell you nearly as much about a player as does OBP. And Soriano's OBP always sucks. Just like Batista's."

Yes, he's not the best OBP guy due to 120+ K's a year. But he brings so much more to the table than Batista in his prime.

"He does hit home runs, albeit aided by the best hitters' park in the AL."

How tough is the Yankee stadium on right handed hitters? I always thought it was quite difficult, yet Soriano hit 38 & 39 HR's in 2002 & 2003. He came 1 HR shy of going 40/40 in 2003. Did Tony Batista ever do that?

[Matt]

I'm not, its not so far off considering Soriano is a FA after this season and Guzman is thaty bad that Matsui might actually be an upgrade. I think Washington loses the deal considering what they at 1st gave up to get Soriano though.

[Erik]

"It sure doesn't seem that foolish."
Unfortunately, your COMPARISON IS foolish.

Escobar suffered through MANY injuries. Injuries kill prospects. Alex's muscularity was eventually blamed for being so injury prone. I'd make the parallel to Eric Davis in this regard.

Escobar was a top prospect before constant injuries robbed him of his ability. Milledge is a top prospect in any context.

"FYI, a Matsui for Soriano trade might make sense because I bet a healthy Matsui can put up a 750-780 OPS, which isn't far off from what a healthy Soriano can do in Washington."

A "healthy Matsui" is like a "thin Kirstie Alley" or a "humble Donald Trump" or a "talented Scott Stapp." In short, it doesn't exist. The ironman of Japan is ALREADY dinged up this year.

If you think Soriano's defense sucks, wait until you get a load of Matsui. At SHORTSTOP, no less. I've seen Kaz Matsui play shortstop. He's one of the worst I've ever seen.

Matsui's career OPS+ is a whopping 82. Soriano's is 111. This number is park-adjusted. How Matsui and Soriano would ever be expected to put up similar numbers in a whole season is beyond me. Matsui is a banjo hitter who plays lousy defense and is always hurt. Soriano is a power hitter who plays lousy defense and is always healthy.

I'm a Mets fan and I totally agree that Soriano for Matsui and Diaz is fantasy land talk.

[Mooseman]

A little crazy idea to throw out here but what about this deal:

Nats get- Jose Contreras
Sea gets- Soriano, J dye
Sox get- Ichiro.
Basically it works that the Nats get good value for a somewhat currently value-less player, Seattle gets enough in return to justify moving Ichiro (word is he is unhappy in Seattle cause of the manager). The Chisox are able to sell high on 2 players they bought low on which the deal basically turns out for them as Ichio and Mccarthy for Contreras and Dye.

[Erik]

Some new 411:

If Kaz Matsui was involved in the deal, Bowden apparently wanted Milledge. Discussions ended at that point.

[Rob Rumfelt]

By now, everyone is aware of Soriano’s low OBP. But that doesn’t jive very well with the fact that he consistently scores over 100 runs year in and year out (102 in 2005). So out of curiosity, I created a stat I call TIPS, or Times In Scoring Position).

To derive a player’s TISP, you simply add his doubles, triples and stolen bases together. By adding stolen bases, the assumption is that most of the time he is stealing second and thus placing himself in scoring position. Of course, this would be even more revealing if one could pinpoint how many times he stole second and how many times he got to third via a swipe, but I work on getting those numbers later.

For now, my objective is to determine a stat that I suspect is more important than OBP…how many times a player puts himself in scoring position (TISP). I feel this stat, whatever it is, will reveal more about Soriano’s offensive worth than OBP, a stat I happen to value a lot.

As it turns out, only six players in all of baseball had a higher TISP score last year than Soriano.

TISP
Crawford 94
Rollins 90
Furcal 88
Podsednik 88
Lugo 81
Roberts 79
Soriano 75

It could be argued that his TISP score completely offsets his .309 OBP. The whole point of getting on base is to score. Ater all, who cares if a guy has a .400 OBP if he doesn't score often? (Case in point, Nick Johnson's OBP was .408 but he only scored 66 times last year!). Obviously, the chances of scoring improve dramatically once a player reaches second base, thus the sac bunt and hitting behind a runner to move runners up a base. Consequently, a TISP score is arguably more important than OBP. That Soriano scored 102 runs in spite of a .309 OBP bears this out.

One could argue that he scored those 102 dimply due to driving himself in so often. The evidence shows otherwise.

Even if you subtract his 36 HR from his RP or runs produced total (subtract 72 from the RP total…36 times 2), Soriano had the third highest runs produced total from those on the above list.

..................TISP 2B 3B SB HR R RBI RP RPLH
Crawford.... 94 33 15 46 15 101 ..81 182 152
Rollins........ 90 38 11 41 12 115 ..54 169 145
Soriano....... 75 43 ..2 30 36 102 104 206 134
Lugo............. 81 36 ..6 39 ..6 ..89 ..57 146 134
Furcal........... 88 31 11 46 12 100 .58 158 134
Roberts........79.45...7..27..18..92 .73 .165 129
Podsednik.. 88 .28 .1 .59 ...0 .80 .25 .105 105

RPLH = Runs Produced Less Homers

Without question, Soriano helps a team score runs not only via the home run, but also by getting into scoring position ahead of the big boys. OBP is perhaps the most inaccurate measure of his offensive worth.

With this new information in mind, one could argue that placing someone with such a propensity to get into scoring position in front of the best hitter in baseball (Pujols) is a recipe for a lot of runs (and 20-30 more RBI this year for Albert) . Soriano's OBP may be very low but his TISP is one of the highest in baseball. In the end, getting into scoring position seems more important.

Don't get me wrong, I hate the stance Soriano’s taken with the Nats and his defense is definitely a liability, but his "low" OBP is a GROSSLY overrated stat. He still scored 102 runs last year...for a reason.

I'm still unsure of where I stand on trading for Soriano, and it seems like he’d ruin the Cardinals long-term payroll. The only way he'd play for me is if I sat him down, read him the riot act, and he was willing to make a public statement that he'd play "water boy " if I needed him to.

But his low OBP is WAY overstated. Yeah, you’d have to accept his defensive liability and high price tag but there’s no question he’d make the Cardinals the #1 offense in all of baseball, hands down.

[Eric]

I like that stat, I am a Mets fan and I have said all along that without question Soriano would make their offense better. Plus the difference in his offensive numbers would easily out weigh his errors on defense. (At least compared to Matsui)

[Erik]

Jose Reyes scored 99 runs with a .300 OBP. WHY?

THE NUMBER OF AB'S WERE HUGE.

Give anyone over 600 AB's, decent speed and a stacked lineup. Bet you they score 100 runs... doesn't make them special. Their EQA and Isolated SLG are far better methods of evaluation.

The better argument you could make is that of SOB, or Speed-Adjusted OBP, which takes into account the speed, baserunning and stolen base ability of a given player.

Yes, we all have subscriptions to BP, but that doesn't mean we all know what we are talking about.

[Kyle]

Soriano scored 102 runs because his lineup was very stacked. This new stat is so dumb. I guess if you could accurately determine it it would be quasi-useful. But you are ignoring one of the most commons ways of getting into scoring position. Getting to first and then getting moved over by a teamate. You accounted for doubles triples and steals as ways of getting into scoring position which are all valid ways. But none I would argue are the most common.

For an example lets look at Derek Jeter. He scored 122 runs last year, yet his TISP is only a 44. That is a little misleading as he scored 78 runs in other manners. The way you score runs is to first get on base and then get into scoring position. Runs are dependant on the people who hit behind you. All you can ask for a hitter to do is to get himself on base, move himself over if possible, and knock in other when they are in scoring position. Soriano is good at exactly one of them moving himself over. Soriano ended up with good RBI numbers simply because of his lineup. Here are some good stats that show the kind of producer Soriano is:
21/36 Home Runs came with bases empty
.235 BA .733 OPS with runners in scoring position
.181 BA .587 OPS with RISP and 2 outs

Soriano is a good hitter and an atrocious fielder. He is not great in any way.

gg faux science

[Erik]

I love using Ruben Sierra in examples... he's slow, and has poor OBP skills.

1987: 97 Runs scored with a .302 OBP.

To paraphrase Samuel L. Jackson from Fresh, "Give me 600 AB's and a low OBP and i'll chew out 90-100 runs."

Again, stop using counting stats to prove how valuable players are. If you have a low OBP, you are still making more outs than other players, so any benefits from good baserunning are neutralized.

[Bdid]

I never said Escobar wasn't a top prospect. Why don't you reread the post. He never materialized at any level. He wasn't a great minor league player. He was just very talented. BA looks at potential. And he had a ton of it. As Erik pointed out, injuries were part of his inability to dominate. Milledge has already cleared that hurdle. He has already been outstanding in the minors. You can compare 9 to 11 all you want. Yes, those numbers are close, but their actual baseball abilities, for whatever reason, are not, and were not. So keep thinking he's the next Escobar, when he beats your team by himself in 3 years, you'll be singing a different tune.

[Bdid]

Erik,

Where did you get the info on Matsui and Milledge (as the deal breaker?)

[Erik]

"Where did you get the info on Matsui and Milledge (as the deal breaker?)"

I heard it on the radio.

Makes sense to me. The Mets can't afford to bring Soriano on board as long as Matsui is there. Obviously, the Nats taking Matsui means compensation in the form of a stud prospect.

[Eric]

Ok, I was doing some research on infielders. How many would love to have a guy like Ernie Banks on your team? I am guessing many would. Soriano is not that far behind, even if you use "the only numbers a player can be judged by" Ernie's OBP was .330 and his OPS was .830. Soriano's #'s are .320 and .820. Also remeber that before he went to Texas with no chance of winning his numbers the last year with the Yankee's were .338 and .863. I guess Soriano and Banks had no impact on the team except negative. Also, for those who are going to comeback with a mention of defense, Banks was not a great fielder either. He commited over 30 errors in a season twice and was moved from ss to 1st.

[RumorMonger]

Talented Scott Stapp...I liked that one.

Anywho, I'm not a Mets fan one iota and I thought the deal was fair. Maybe not perfect - as someone said, a little money might have to change hands - but it's not some fanboy dream or something.

[Joh-mama]

Yo BDID,

Why don't you reread the post..I didn't say Milledge was the next Escobar, just that he very well could be.

When you can trade a prospect for an established player in his prime, especially when you are a team that has spent a ton of $$ the last few years, need to win now and have a weakness at the position, a good GM would probably do the deal.

That philosophy worked for Kenny Williams, and the last I looked he's the GM of the World Series champs.

Until proved otherwise, prospects are suspects.

[Kyle]

Banks and Soriano's career numbers are similar but there are some important differences. Banks' numbers are dragged down a lot by playing past his prime. By the time Banks was 29 he had:

4 40 HR seasons
5 .350+ OBP seasons
2 .300 BA seasons
and a gold glove

Also in his career he recorded only one season with 100 strikeouts, 1968 in which he was 38 and recorded 101. Soriano is currently 29 and has up until this point recorded:

0 40 home run seasons
0 .350+ OBP seasons
1 .300 BA season
0 gold gloves

The only thing Soriano has on Banks is speed. Another fun stat. Soriano has yet had a season with more then 40 walks. Banks never had a season in which he played more then 80 games in which he did not record 40 walks

[Erik]

"I guess Soriano and Banks had no impact on the team except negative."

Soriano is a profoundly flawed player. PERIOD.

Did you just compare him to Ernie Banks? Banks had an OBP consistenly above .330 until his age 31 season. Soriano has never been above .338 in his entire career. I bet he never gets there again.

If you notice, Soriano was absolutely dreadful on the road last year. Doug Mientkiewicz outhit Soriano on the road, for crying out loud! Now, he's moving to RFK stadium, which suppresses HR's by 14% for RHB. Shea Stadium is even worse! (29%)

I don't blame Omar for trying to get him, as the Mets alternatives are rather mediocre, but if the cost is a young player of any potential, then, as Alice In Chains once said,"I staaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyy awaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyy."

[Eric]

No fair your using some other stats besides OBS and OPS. Your not getting the point, obviously Soriano is no Banks. My point is that using only obp and ops to judge a hitter's worth is stupid.

[JK47]

Soriano is not even close to Banks as a ballplayer. Banks' OPS+ through age 29 was 140, Soriano's is 111. Their stats may look superficially similar, but Banks was by far the superior player. Banks' career stats were dragged down because he played well past his prime and played in some pretty run-scarce environments.

[Bdid]

Kenny WIlliams had a defensive club...not offensive. He had great infield D. Soriano is not that! You can say "boo" to all the prospects you want. Look at the Yanks, they traded it all away, and now only have a checkbook to rely on. ANd you didn't say he is the next Escobar, you just inferred it. Which is basically the same thing.

[Erik]

"Until proved otherwise, prospects are suspects."

Okay. I'll trade you Cliff Floyd right now for Delmon Young. I'll eat his entire contract to boot.

Cliff can hit. He's no suspect. Delmon Young is a suspect because he "only" murdered AA at the age of 20, against players at least 2-3 years older than him.

By this logic, David Wright and Miguel Cabrera would have been suspects. They crushed AA just the same as D-Young did.

Milledge ain't the prospect Delmon is, but is he a slouch? Hardly. You had better get a stud player back if you are going to trade Milo.

[Eric]

Everyone is missing the point. Soriano is obviously no Banks, but he's not Rey Ordonez either. My real point is that I get tired of everyone bringing up that the only way to measure a player's hitting ability is by OBP and OPS. I mean come on, Tony Gwynn was one of the best hitters of all time and his OBP was only .388 good enough for 50th all time. Take a look at some of the people in front of him. Thome, Bagwell, Thomas, Delgado, these are great names but none of them were as good a hitter as Gwynn

[Kyle]

You dont judge a hitters ability by OBP or OPS. You are judging there productivity. Gwynn was a great hitter because of his Average. What everyone is trying to point out is that Soriano is not that good offensively. He hits a lot of home runs and steals a bunch of bases but he hurts his team by striking out too much and not taking a walk. People are trying to say his offense is so good it makes up for the errors it doesnt though. Soriano has poor fundementals that is his problem. He has no eye for the strike zone, he has a bad approach to ground balls, and he consistently makes throwing errors although he has a above average arm. I think Soriano moving to left will be very good for him. He wont have to deal with grounders in the whole and his speed will be able to cover up for some of the bad reads he will make.

[Bdid]

Nice Post on Young vs. Floyd Erik. Very similar to the Sori vs. Milledge argument.

[David]

Eric Milton for Soriano...

Reds flip Soriano to a team in the AL for pitching/prospects.

Even a another pitcher like Arroyo.

[TheRealDeal]

Face it - Soriano for Matsui and Diaz is absolutely a fanboy dream. NOBODY wants Matsui and the Nats aren't looking to "unload" Soriano. So, then, Diaz makes the deal happen? No way. This IS my original argument - Why is every Mets "rumor" on this board an expendable or low value player for someone else's star. Fact - Matsui has little value. Fact - Soriano is a star. Who's knocking on the Mets door for Diaz, his .257 average and 12 HR's??? Victor Diaz = Eric Valent.

[Kyle]

If the Reds threw in another player that could work. Milton could be respectable in a park like RFK. Maybe Milton and Freel for Soriano and a low prospect.

[Joh-mama]

There is no comparison between Delmon Young and Milledge. He is a "slouch" compared to Young.

[Eric]

I guess that Jose Offerman is a better offensive player than Soriano. His OBP is .360.

[Kyle]

Here are the Zips Projections for all parties involved in the Mets Rumor:

Soriano:
.248/.295/.439 27 HR 79 RBI 24 SB

Diaz:
.286/.338/.486 26 HR 87 RBI 10 SB

Matsui:
.270/.339/.385 7 HR 49 RBI 8 SB

They are very pessimistic on this trade but if these projections are right Washington is getting the better of that deal

[Eric]

And poor Joe Carter, what a lousy hitter he was. I can't believe he was not cut, his OBP was only .306. I could go on and on, you have to look at a hitters value to a team. All hitters have weaknesses, Soriano has many but his power and sb potential should not just be thrown out bec. his OBP is low.

[Erik]

"He is a "slouch" compared to Young."

A-
.337/.399/.579 Milledge
.320/.386/.536 Young

Milledge isn't a slouch compared to ANYONE.

Here's what John Sickels had to say:

Young: Young has very slight advantages in power projection, current performance, and baseball skill level.

Milledge: Milledge has a very slight edge in overall physical tools and defense.

Advantage: On balance, I think that Young comes out a hair ahead of Milledge, but it's a photo finish.

[JK47]

"Why is every Mets "rumor" on this board an expendable or low value player for someone else's star."

Because Mets fans, and I am one, WAY overvalue guys who came up through the Mets system. Check out MetsGeek or Metsblog sometime. There are people over there saying Jae Seo is going to win 20 games and that Victor Diaz is the next Manny Ramirez. There are people who would prefer Anderson Hernandez over Soriano at 2B. There are Mets fans who would actually be upset if the Mets traded Diaz for Soriano straight up.

[Erak]

Millidge is a "slouch" compared to Felix Pie.

[AJ]

"Milledge isn't a slouch compared to ANYONE."

Milledge is a "slouch" compared to Albert Pujols.

[Bdid]

As a Mets fan I agree we are a bit crazy at times. I don't think anyone is saying that Matsui and Diaz for Soriano is "fair." We are saying that that would be good! Not for Washington, for us. Hey, we didn't even start this rumor! We are just following along like everyone else. And as I've mentioned before, it isn't just Mets fans on here sounding crazy. "Todd Walker for Soriano" and the "Wily Mo for Soriano"...just as likely as the Kaz and Vic for him.

ONE BIG SCREAM.... MILLEDGE GOES NOWHERE BUT TO NYM!!! WRITE THAT ONE IN PERMANENT INK BABY!!!!

[Erik]

"Milledge is a "slouch" compared to Albert Pujols."
Pujols plays in the majors and is no longer a prospect.

"Millidge is a "slouch" compared to Felix Pie"
No, he isn't. Pie is just as flawed as Milledge is at this point.

[Matt]

Despite a hole at second base, the Mets reportedly aren't interested in Alfonso Soriano.
Several newspapers in Chicago also reported that the Cubs won't be going after Soriano. It's almost as if other teams don't want to stop the confrontation between Soriano, manager Frank Robinson and general manager Jim Bowden from taking place. Mar. 22 - 10:30 am et
Source: New York Daily News

[Erik]

http://www.metsblog.com/blog/_archives/2006/3/22/1835221.html

There yah go!

[Mets Fan]

I already outlined the reasons I don't want Soriano (1. Omar might actually sign him, 2. Randolph might bat him 2nd), but I still maintain Washington stands to improve by following this trade. Remember, not all trades have a winner and a loser. Some have are good for both teams. Diaz fills their gaping hole in left field, and Matsui replaces Guzman. According to some projections, Diaz might perform as well (or better than) Soriano. This says more about Soriano than it does about Diaz (and yet more about Bowden); it's not a knock against Soriano. He is what he is - a league average hitter with no patience at the plate and a terrible attitude.

Done?

[SJ Mets Fan]

Anyone making an argument that Soriano is any good needs to look at his splits.

HOME - .315 .355 .656 1.011

AWAY - .224 .265 .374 .639

Throw me in that bandbox in Texas and I'll give you 30 HR. If he played 162 games there, he would be a good player. He's going to BOMB at RFK. The Mets are much better with Diaz and Matsui.

[JK47]

"Anyone making an argument that Soriano is any good needs to look at his splits."

What about his 2002 and 2003 splits, when he RAKED on the road? Certainly you're not going to tell me he went from superstar to bum in two years. The truth is somewhere in the middle. I'm no fan of Soriano, but to completely dismiss him because he had pronounced home/road splits one year is, well, silly. Home games count too, and a 1.011 OPS is pretty sick, bandbox or not.

[Mets Fan]

Also, to the guy who posted Soriano's OPS+ ... I am very familiar with the statistic, and have three responses. First, I realize he is league average, and said as much in my post. I simply argue that Matsui can get within 5-7 OPS+ points of Soriano if he stays healthy. Second, Soriano is entering his age 30 season, and there's no reason to expect him to improve on his 110 OPS+ from last season. Third, Victor Diaz has a 109 OPS+ for his career. Diaz would be the player replacing Soriano in the field; Matsui would replace Guzman who is monumentally atrocious.

[SJ Mets Fan]

In 2003, Bret Boone hit .294 .366 .535.

In 2005, he hit .221 .290 .350

You tell me which is a better predictor of 2006. Unfortunately for us, we'll never know since he retired. I'm willing to bet he wouldn't come anywhere near his 2003 numbers.

Just because Soriano used to be a good player, DOES NOT mean he's going to be in the coming years. We have no reason to beleive that the last 2 years have been an anomaly.

[JK47]

"In 2003, Bret Boone hit .294 .366 .535.

In 2005, he hit .221 .290 .350

You tell me which is a better predictor of 2006."

Look, I don't really care for Soriano either, but that is a ridiculous argument. Bret Boone was 34 in 2003, at the end of his prime and roided to the gills. Soriano was 27 in 2003, still in his prime. Thirty-four year olds do not decline at the same rate as 27-year olds.

To say that Soriano has only hit when playing in bandboxes is untrue. He mashed the ball on the road with the Yankees-- he was actually hurt by Yankee Stadium. I don't care for Soriano, but he is not a .639 OPS hitter.

[DLEE4MVP!]

My friend use to play with Victor Diaz before he went to the minors. After Diaz hit the HR off Hawkins, i asked my friend what do you think of Diaz. he shaked his head, "he got game." Diaz is stil a young player and i think it owuld be a mistake trading Diaz to the Nats. Also, news flash people, Soriano agreed on playing LF, and this would now increase his value.

[steven]

bigger newsflash. if pedro isnt going to be healthy this year minaya just wasted a ton of money.

[Mets Fan]

"bigger newsflash. if pedro isnt going to be healthy this year minaya just wasted a ton of money."

Huh? 1) I think you mean Wagner, since this is Pedro's 2nd year with the Mets, and 2) the same applies to Damon, Burnett, and every other major free agent acquisition this offseason.

[JK47]

"bigger newsflash. if pedro isnt going to be healthy this year minaya just wasted a ton of money."

Pedro is going to miss opening day because of his toe. No big deal, this has been looming for weeks. People always think of Pedro as brittle for some reason, but he has only missed a large portion of a season once, in 2001. He has made 29 starts or more in every other year of his career.

[Nick]

The mets should just trade for Todd Walker or Tony Graffinino,not Soriano.

[Kyle]

Nick that would definately be the smarter move. They dont need another home run hitter if they can get someone to hit .290 get on base and play solid defense they will be alright

[steven]

Metsfan-
I am not talking about just Pedro's contract, which I might add still has 3 years on it. However, if Pedro battles this ailment all season then the Mets are not going anywhere despite all the money they have spent the last two years. Without Pedro this pitching staff is not anywhere near the caliber it needs to be. They used to be one solid consistent pitcher away from something big. If Pedro has to get surgery, which even he admits is a possibility, then the pitching situation gets that much worse.

[Mets Fan]

Note, I don't dispute your general point - if Pedro goes down, the Mets are screwed. I do have an issue with the way you phrase this blatantly obvious point.

First, you act as if no other team in baseball faces an injury risk.

Second, you act as if an injury to Pedro would be Karma-induced. The Mets are not the Yankees, and they did not spend like the Yankees (their payroll has actually decreased).

Their ace might get injured. What's your point? Randy Johnson has an ailing back, John Smotlz is an old fart, Curt Schilling is far from healthy, Johan Santana is also an injury risk, as are Ben Sheets, Mark Prior, CC Sabathia, and virtually every other pitcher on this planet. To his credit, Pedro has actually been a lot healthier and more consistent than a number of the players mentioned above.

[Devlsh]

With all this back and forth about Alex Escobar and the bashing of Jim Bowden, allow me to tie the two together:

The White Sox obtained Alex Escobar on waivers in August 2004 and Jim Bowden traded for him six months later, dealing Jerry Owens, to the Sox. Owens, an outfielder (where did they want Soriano to play?), is currently ranked by Baseball America as the White Sox #6 prospect. Meanwhile, has anyone seen Alex Escobar lately?

Ahhh, that Jim Bowden.

[ken schoultz]

How about trade Milledge or Floyd for Miguel Cabrera from the Marlins. I heard that they were trying to trade him. He young, speed and power.

[,]

The Marlins are defenately not going to trade cabrera in my opinion or they will have sucky playas till a few years.

[RumorMonger]

Please stop, thanks.