Let 'Em Walk

Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner posted a fantastic piece last Wednesday, arguing against the widespread assumption that the Mariners would end up with nothing if they fail to trade Ichiro in July and he leaves for another team via free agency.  I just found the post now via Jonah Keri.

Cameron's point is that the value of two compensatory draft picks is often overlooked by fans.  I have to admit that in the past I have kind of ignored this aspect.  I was critical of Jim Bowden's non-trade of Alfonso Soriano last summer, but it was a fine decision.  Unless Bowden was offered a can't-miss prospect - and he wasn't - it made sense to let Soriano walk.

Cameron noted that Billy Beane has used compensatory picks to great advantage, snagging tons of fine players that way.  Cameron even speculates in the comments that Beane could attempt to acquire Mark Buehrle this summer with no intention of signing him.  Beane did this with Ray Durham in '02.

Comments

[wihargo]

That is a pretty good point. You take a risk with a lesser player that they won't get signed in time for you to recieve compensation, but with young players being so valuable right now this type of approach does make some sense.

[darkstar1661]

The problem with this? Well, if you have a $10m player about to become a FA and you don't trade him you end up paying him the $5m+ left on his contract, you don't get the prospects who could help you within the next year or two, and you are taking a bigger risk on the drafted player who will probably not show results for 4-5 years down the road if they ever do...

Ok, so maybe the players you get won't be great, maybe they will do better than you expected though - you never know... Some great players have come by way of salary-dump trades...

If you did just take what you are implying are the lesser prospects in the trade you are also saving the $5m+ though, so with that saved cash you could just take the best player that would have gone #1 in the draft with your highest pick if he wasn't a Boras client... You would prob be sitting with a high draft pick anyway since you were s seller at the deadline, just take the cash saved from the trade and sign the best player avail no matter their situation...

Where draft picks come in handy and provide results from time to time, what is the actual percentage of them that ever make an impact on a pro field? 5-10/30+ maybe?

[quintjs]

darkstar, that is a good point for the Royals, the bigger teams with bigger playrolls can afford to keep a player on the team to get the draft picks.

All teams have middle of the road prospects, if you are trading, you would want an upgrade over what you have.

[ryn519]

Trades are not always ment to upgrae or try to get the better hand. Sometimes you make a Trade because one team has an excess in one area while a team has a lack in another and vice versa for the other team. You have good 2 good starting catchers, I have 2 good starting second baseman. I will trade my other good catcher for your good second baseman. Compensatory picks are good if A.) you make good use of them like Beane does or B.) If your willing to sign high Compensatory picks for higher bounses. I don't follow the A's drafts (maybe I should) but I believe I read that sometimes they take players that they value in the draft higher than maybe alot of other teams would.

[DentalPlan]

If you can't tell, I have had it with a lot of the Yankees and Mets fans on this site. They come up with these inane trades where a team loses its impact player and gets back two guys, or even one guy, worse than what you'd get from two draft picks? This nonsense about not giving up Ian Kennedy or Joba Chamberlain - where did those guys come from? Wow, the draft!