Mailbag: Bedard, Roberts, Konerko, Johan

KW comments make perfect sense to me. His team isn't going to contend this year. Why make deals that will further disillusion the fanbase? Trading his assets for for prospects would probably make more baseball sense. But completely breaking up a team that won a World Series as recently as '05 would leave the seats empty for years. They'd lose all the fan support '05 gained them.

Just a quick response to Jason... if anyone wanted Mussina or Igawa, they'd already be gone. Yankees aren't always going to get gold for garbage and this is a prime example. As for Konerko being moved, I'd welcome it for the White Sox, but only if it gives them two young pieces, preferably a starting pitcher and an outfielder. And I'm not talking about anyone's 36 year old throw aways, I'm talking a upper echelon pitching prospect. Don't know why I'm discussing this though, Jerry Reinsdorf is a Konerko fanboy, and while I love Pauly's abilities too, it's time to cut the cord. He's one of the few assets the White Sox can get a bunch for.

I think KW can trade Paulie away and move crede to 1st for this year and worry about a 1st basemen next off season. so long as fields gets a chance to play a full year. moving konerko can definitely get a major league ready pitcher or OF

Kenny Williams is right. Paul DePodesta made the moves that he thought were right but weren't wildly popular and it got him fired. Of course, those moves turned out to be the right ones and so he was strung up for no reason. Sometimes it's better to make the popular bad move than the unpopular good one.

I think the MAIN thing that hampers Mora's trade value is that he has a NO TRADE CLAUSE...it is a real point of contention among Bmore baseball talk; one of those bonehead throw-in offers that came basically from Peter Angelos...

As the above poster said, Mora has a NTC. He has said that he will only waive it for a contending East Coast team. Well, Boston has Lowell, the Mets have Wright, the Yanks have A-Rod back and the Phils - while needing a 3B (and seeming like a perfect fit for Mora) - have said that they have no interest in dealing for Mora.

So Melvin has limited the available market enough to guarantee he'll be in Baltimore until the end of his contract.

You're insane. All four of those prospects for one year of Santana a good deal? That's ridiculous.

What are some legit offers thatr the Cubs are proposing for Roberts?...Is there anyway Hill would be involved?...

Mora's NTC isn't the issue here, it's that no one wants him.

I meant those four prospects are a good deal for the Twins. Not sure what's insane since they pretty much offered the first three and I noted that the fourth was never agreed upon.

...Actually to me Ellsbury, Lowrie, Masterson, and a fourth player sounds light-ish or just about right...maybe it's just me but Boston fans are starting to sound more and more like Yankee fans and victims of their own hype...every high level prospect is not going to turn into a star but Boston fans will have you believe that they're sending 4 All-Stars in such a deal...the reality is that there might be only 1 if any...

If either of those packages are offered for Bedard Seattle should say yes before the other team realizes that they're overpaying.

I would disagree, though, and say that Hamilton is closest to a sure thing, as he put up a .900+ OPS in 300 ABs last season. He was on the DL two or three times, but as a Rule 5 draftee they were looking for any reason to get him some AAA ABs. Plus, one of his injuries was a stomach problem.

I'd probably take the Seattle deal, though. Any time you have a catcher who can hit like Clement, your team is at a serious advantage.

maybe it is just both.

...I think Mora holds about the same value as, say, Lowell did when he was a throw-in for the Beckett deal...that is, he is a albatross contract coming off a bad offensive year and a bit on the old side...at that time no one wanted Lowell either...but that turned out pretty good for the BoSox...Mora is coming off a better offensive year than Lowell had, tho he is several years older than Lowell was during his trade...the thing that throws this whole thing off is Mora's NTC limits possible suitors considerably on top of being a difficult player to deal in the first place...

...the caveat to this is that Mora is a strong family man who has QUINTUPLETS in Baltimore so that might be playing a role in not wanting to leave the East Coast...

Also, Blue, I think those packages are being offered BY SEATTLE and the REDS...not being proposed by BALTIMORE...

Basemonkey, I think the issue is that most Boston fans feel that even if the BoSox only get say one all-star (or near all-star) caliber player, one league average starter and the third player is a complete dissapointment, they'd prefer to have the near all-star, the league average starter and even the dissapointment (not to mention a fourth player) locked up at a very reasonable salary for years to come than to commit 7 years at 20+ million a year to any player whatsoever. Not that I'm throwing my personal opinion out there, just the impressions i get from my a lot of my fellow Boston fans. Also, most fans tend to prefer the homegrown all stars to the all stars bought and payed for.

Anyways, personally, i think the trade is worth it only for the reason that it would be the final support to turn us into a pitching dynasty for MANY years to come. If we didn't already have such a strong base in place i would NEVER accept it simply because it's not worth committing that much money a year over such a long contract. No pitcher, even Johan Santana, is guaranteed to remain injury free especially over such a long period.

basemonkey, it's also worth noting that Mora isn't more than average defensively, while Lowell was coming of a Gold Glove season when he went to Boston.

as a Phillies fan, I wouldn't be opposed to trading for him as long as Baltimore sent over some cash in return. but given Philadelphia's self-imposed salary cap, I think a deal would be extremely unlikely unless Baltimore was paying a substantial amount of the $17+M Mora is owed over the next two years (plus the 2010 option buyout).

Gfulla? Did i just read that right? Your comment just states why Red Sox Fans are dillusional. Your comment is so idiotic I can't stop laughing?

Home grown talent? Ortiz, Ramirez, Lowell, Beckett, Cabrera, Timlin, Wakefield, Schilling, and I could go on and on about you buying talent - don't give me this homegrown talent crap because you simply have not produced an all-star out of your farm system in many, many years

...The way I see it is that if the BoSOx got Johan, they easily end up having a rarified rotation that comes around once-in-a-generation, if ever...how many #1 types or potential #1 types would be one there? How many Cy Youngs?...it would be such a crushing death blow to the Yankees for the fore-seeable future that it's not even funny...

...the fact that Boston fans are even debating trading prospects for Johan is a sign of how they overvalue their prospects...there was similar talk before the Hanley trade; and this is similar...bringing up the issue of contract and budgets is ridiculous for a team that paid 50M just to talk to a Japanese pitcher who never threw one pitch in the bigs...the point to me is that, if Johan is on the board, and a team that wants to stay on top can nab him and block their competition, they have to do it...trading away 20 or so years of overall average ML service time in the process is not irreplaceable to a good system...the only reason to hold up on that trade is if you're thinking that you have several future All-Stars you're dealing in that process...consider that such trade proposals being offered for Johan wouldn't be enuff to get Haren or Bedard (mainly due to contract and years til FA)...

********

...As far as Mora's glove, his glove is pretty good more or less...nothing near Rolen's or Chavez but he is solid...average overall...and, if it means getting a little more in prospects, then I'm sure the Os would throw in cash...unfortunately from all reports, the Phils don't seem to have the prospects the Os are looking for...and for the record, I don't think anyone is asking for more than C prospects for Mora...

I much prefer what Schuerholz and now Wren do in Atlanta to KW or *shudder* the Steinbrenners. Keep quiet, make your deals, and take care of business without all the media attention. As a fan, I'm much happier to learn about a trade when it happens then hear every gruelling detail about how you're waffling, waiting, dragging it out, and ultimately making a decision that was your 2nd or 3rd choice. You're the GM, and it's your job to make these kinds of decisions--not us rabid fans.

Minnesota Mike: I completely agree; it's like Sox fans think that once a player puts on the Sox uniform, they all become home-grown.

They need to realize that they are mirroring the Yanks alot more than they think (or care to admit)!!!

You don't need to look any further than gfulla's comments (or the fact that we're even having a debate here) to prove how ridiculously the Red Sox/Yankees types overvalue their prospects. This kind of logic turns Jed Lowrie into something other than a dime-a-dozen middle IF prospect and Melky Cabrera (24, .718 OPS) into a top-flight outfielder.

Yes, we ALL remember how Boston won two WS thanks to home-grown allstars like Beckett, Schilling, Manny, Johnny Damon, Big Papi, Bill Mueller, Orlando Cabrera, JD Drew, Mike Lowell....

Basemonkey,

The Phils don't have the prospects the O's want for BEDARD, not Mora. While the Phillies pharm system is not loaded, they can easily get Mora. They don't want him. I think the O's would give him away(practically) if the Phils would take his contract.

Relating to the Jones/Clement/Morrow trade possibility. Take out Clement, as we have Wieters, and put in Carlos Truinfel, then, as an O's fan, I'd be much more interested. The dreamer in me wants the Reds to cough up Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto & Josh Roenicke for Bedard. I'm not too high on Votto.

A few of you need to stop jumping to conclusions. Did i once say that Papi, or Manny or anyone else was "homegrown talent?" No. I said many fans prefer homegrown talent and they do on any team, Boston, NY or otherwise. Not that i'm saying all fans prefer them, but you need to realize that just because ESPN is in love with a player doesn't mean they are every fan's favorite player.

My favorite player, personally, is Pedroia and i've been excited about him for years now. Since back when he and Hanley Ramirez were expected to be our middle infielders for years to come (ie before the beckett trade). Similarly I've been excited about Ellsbury for a while now and actually went up to see him play in AAA pawtucket earlier this year before he was called up (i moved out of the northeast a few years ago so it's actually a seven hour drive). Granted i was actually dragged up there to see family but that's the condition i made for going :p

One other little side note, I'm not saying ellsbury was the only player i went to see even though he was at the top of my list. Nor am i saying that pedroia was the only prospect i've been excited about...obviously some don't pan out, but when they do it's so exciting.

Anyways, you also need to finish reading my first post. I was trying to explain the feelings of many fans. A lot of the fans are "overvaluing" players in your mind, but maybe, just maybe their value is based on personal attachment (ie the enjoyment the fan gets out of watching the player) rather than value at maximizing efficiency (in order to win and such). Yah it's not logical, but people always do it, no matter what sport you're watching and I can guarantee you're all equally illogical in some other aspects of your lives.

As for my personal opinion, if you read the second paragraph I said almost exactly what you did basemonkey. Trading for Santana is absolutely worth it LARGELY because he'd be surrounded by so many other dominant (or potentially dominant) pitchers. He's the final "support" as i said or you can phrase it as final "nail" in the coffin for the Yankees. Either way, it's the same concept.

The condition where i was trying to say it wouldn't be worth doing this trade is if (hypothetically) you were to surround him by a bunch of scrubs. Then you'd be better served spreading your chips around for a couple above average players.

It just makes no sense whatsoever to trade that much major league ready talent for just one player. Deals involving multiple prospects for one player are supposed to have more guys from the lower minors, that way there is more risk. The risk in either of the offers for Bedard in the email question is pretty low.

Why does everyone keep looking at Johan as a one-year rental? If a team trades for him, they'll demand a window to sign him. My guess is that whichever team gets a trade worked out will sign him to an extension...

Oh and ginandtacos. I certainly didn't say lowrie was going to be anything but a dime a dozen. Actually, i was thinking as i wrote it about a little side note mentioning that lowrie had less upside than the other two but it didn't seem worth waisting my time to mention... Anyone who bothers to read a scouting report can see he has less potential than the other two but that doesn't necessarily mean he couldn't surprise everyone. If anyone would likely pan out it would be ellsbury/masterson and more likely ellsbury (who has certainly seemed promising with his major lead appearances to date). Regardless, you should try to be a bit less caustic and quick to conclusions.

As for your apparent love for listing players, well, can i play? Varitek, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Youkilis, Papelbon. That actually doesn't seem quite fair, cuz i'm leaving out the players we traded homegrown talent for. In that case I'd have to include Beckett, Lowell, Orlando Cabrera, and maybe Schilling (?? can't seem to remember right now who the heck that trade was). Oh and don't forget Wakefield who's been in house for a dozen years now. Also, that Papi wasn't some kind of superstar before coming to Boston. The twins released him...

Anyways, seem to have whittled down your list a little. Sorry bout that.

"Why does everyone keep looking at Johan as a one-year rental? If a team trades for him, they'll demand a window to sign him. My guess is that whichever team gets a trade worked out will sign him to an extension..."

Well that's true that they will sign him to an extension. It's not a likelihood, it's a certainty, since that will be the condition for him waiving his no trade clause. The issue is a bit more complicated though.

I'd actually say those extra years are more the problem than anything. Any team that takes him is going to be required to take a big leap of faith. 7 years or so of such an expensive contract? There's a reason pitching contracts tend to be lower/shorter than position players; there's much more risk involved.

"I'd actually say those extra years are more the problem than anything. Any team that takes him is going to be required to take a big leap of faith. 7 years or so of such an expensive contract? There's a reason pitching contracts tend to be lower/shorter than position players; there's much more risk involved."

It's actually 8 years, not 7. Santana's asking for a 7-year, 140m extension in addition to the 13.25m he'll make in 2008. That would keep Santana with his new team through 2015, Santana's age 36 year. That's a pretty extreme commitment for a SP.

However, I think I'd rather give Santana the 7/140 deal than the 5/125 deal that was being suggested earlier this offseason. With the longer deal, it's basically $15m more for 2 extra years, or $7.5m for each of Santana's age 35 and 36 years. Even if he's league average those years it's worth the extra money, considering what SP costs these days (and what it'll cost 6 years from now). And if anyone pitching today has the chance to be league average or better 6 years from now, it's Johan Santana.

Is Santana really worth Ellsbury, Lowrie, Masterson, another prospect and 7/140 ?

thats the issue

Especially with CF being a problem area for Boston fans that Ellsbury could fix, and SS another problem area for years, so why trade your best SS prospect? (again)

Bedrosian's Beard, Sorry if I offended your Phil's prospects...that wasn't my intention...When I said the Phils "don't have the prospects", I didn't include their top prospects to be even under consideration...I just meant that the Phils' AVAILABLE prospects aren't ones that interest the Os...and understandably the Phils aren't willing to up their offer either...

...as far as BoSox fans over-valuing their prospects, BoSOx fans have been doing that for some time now...reading their own hype is just part of the deal...as far as illogically making a bond with your own homegrown players, I can understand that...and, I think all fans have a few guys like that on their team, more or less...that being said, that's why some GMs are better than others because they don't make deals based on emotional bonds...the bottomline to me is winning...would you rather have 10 years of winning and dominant pitching during those years?...or would you rather have a mix of up and down seasons during the same span banking on top prospects?...

...take the 1995 top "Can't Miss" pitching prospects of Paul Wilson, Billy Wagner, Jimmy Haynes, and Jason Schmidt...these 4 guys were supposed to be the elite of the elite...4 CLayton Kershaws of their day...now if you had all four at the time, people would have talked about how your team would be destined for dominating the next decade with pitching...today, that seems laughable...that being said, considering the odds of prospects turning into ML regulars, this isn't a bad crop...

...now so when I consider that 1995 crop and hear the BoSox fans here scoffing at dealing their prospects while still keeping their best young guys, I just laugh...it's very possible that none of the rumored guys amount to squat in the bigs, as talented as they are...bigger busts have happened and often do...and even assuming that Ellsbury reaches his potential of being a Damon-esque player, you're telling me you'd pass on Johan so that you can keep Damon and friends?...

..For the record though, as far as the Bedard rumors, I have to think that any deal including Adam Jones is a pretty substantial one to consider...he's as close as there is to being ready as you get...Hamilton is ready as well, but his age changes the equation on what his ceiling is...

I said several times already to trade the prospects in this situation...haha (at least two paragraphs in my posts talking about it). I'm just trying to give you insight into the kind of fan that seems to irritate you. I have a couple fans like that in my family and they just fall in love with certain players. It's not like they're casual fans either. God my mom watched at least 90% of the Sox games this year in their entirety and i doubt she'd trade ellsbury for santana straight up. Yes, it isn't logical. Oh well. The point is tho that it's not a uniquely Boston phenomenon (nor Boston/NY).

You don't have to explain emotional attachment to us...you're right that it happens all over the place in every town...I am just saying that it has reached a different level with Boston fans in the last 3 years ever since their farm system started to get really good under Epstein...it certainly has taken a nice upswing since then, but, in Boston, until that point, it seems like it is a relatively newly discovered phenomenon to even care that much about the farm...

...the farm system being a large spiritual part of the organization is a relatively new thing for Boston fans in the last few years...this is not to say they haven't developed good players before that time (they have)...I am just saying that it is a philosophical/organizational shift under Epstein...they have a strong system and they are well off for it...I don't take anything away from that, but Boston fans are different from other teams that have traditionally focussed on scouting/development because those fans are a little more grounded in their expectations of their own top prospects simply from heavy experience from it...yes, those fans do adore their own homegrown players when they come through, maybe irrationally...but it comes from a heavy experience of busts and boons via the farm...

I am so happy with the patience Omar has shown in not just getting nervous and offering up everybody. Even for Santana. It would be a shame for him to ruin that by offering a silghtly lesser package and getting Joe Blanton. Please dont do it Omar. If it comes to that, just sign Silva or Lohse and keep our farm.

Wow, Minnesotamike is on his period today boys. He got pretty pissed off just because gfulla said he would prefer his own guys to another teams. Lol.

gfulla: I would prefer my own prospects to come up and do well, as opposed to just using money to get other teams good players.

Minnesotamike: Shut the fu** up you $#$^%^ #$@ as**ole mother fu*kerrr. Calm down Mikey poo. We understand that the prospect of losing Santana has upset you, but take a deep breath, change your tampon, and stfu.

""Why does everyone keep looking at Johan as a one-year rental? If a team trades for him, they'll demand a window to sign him. My guess is that whichever team gets a trade worked out will sign him to an extension...""

Sherlock? Is that you? It isnt the team demanding an extension, it is Johan, and also, the extension should lower his value. Whatever team trades for him is forced to offer him a terribly risky contract that no pitcher should ever get. Even for Johan, tops I would go is 5/100.

Here is a comparable...back in 1997, it was a very different kind of market at the time but, the Boston Red Sox sent:

Tony Armas Jr.
Carl Pavano

FOR

Pedro Martinez

...both Pavano and Armas Jr. were considered extremely highly rated prospects according to Baseball America...what we are talking about today with offering the Ellsbury package is less than those values, mainly suppressed due to the extreme contract it will require to extend Johan...now, BoSox fans, knowing what we do today, would you still have pulled off that trade in 1997?...if so, I don't see why you are so hesitant to deal less today for Johan...sure, it will cost a bundle to sign him...sure it will cost a lot in players who may/may not be ML regulars...but you're consolation prize will be in having the best SP of his generation, just like Pedro...the primary difference here is that Johan would be added to an already strong top rotation...

basemonkey, not to disparage your pedro/johan comparison, but there are some significant differences:

1) Pedro was only 25 when he went to the Sox; Johan will be 29 when 2008 starts.

2) Pedro only required 5 years plus 2 club options for 2003 and 2004; Johan is insisting on 8 years guaranteed (including his already set 2008 salary)

3) Pedro was coming off a Cy Young-winning year. While Johan is the arguably the best pitcher today, he has NEVER in his career put up numbers as good as Pedro did in 1997, the year before the trade (1.90 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .184 BAA, 305/67 K/BB in 241 1/3 IP).

4) When the Red Sox acquired Pedro, they really NEEDED an ace. Right now, they have a very strong and deep rotation even without Johan.

I'm not claiming that trading for Johan is a bad idea for the Sox. But the two situations you've compared were very different.

I didnt say it was an exact comparable...but it's the closest in recent memory...for the simple fact alone that when a pitcher of that caliber becomes available, it is rarer to see those guys dealt than the frequency those pitchers appear...you can poke holes in it all you want...even I when I was posting it was noting how there are big differences...I only used it as a general point of reference...

"I am so happy with the patience Omar has shown in not just getting nervous and offering up everybody. Even for Santana. It would be a shame for him to ruin that by offering a silghtly lesser package and getting Joe Blanton. Please dont do it Omar. If it comes to that, just sign Silva or Lohse and keep our farm."

-Is this serious or sarcastic NrMax? I mean, the Mets might win the East this year. Hell, they might even go to the World Series, but without adding something bigger than Lohse or Silva, they arent going to beat the Sox, the Yanks or Detroit. And what makes you think that its better to sign Lohse or Silva for 40 million dollars than it is to give up on a big time prospect and get a big time pitcher in return?

Technically Curt Schilling is a homegrown player for Boston.

He was drafted and developed by the Sox before being traded to the Orioles at the 1988 trade deadline, he made his debut with the Orioles about a month later.

stupid typad ... blocks comments with no links, profanity or anything else as spam ... so frustrating.

"And what makes you think that its better to sign Lohse or Silva for 40 million dollars than it is to give up on a big time prospect and get a big time pitcher in return?"

Because nrmax said he wouldnt deal a top prospect for Blanton. Blanton is not a big time pitcher, although he would cost big time prospect[s]. I think nrmax would be fine dealing top prospects for Bedard or Santana, but thats because those guys are actually aces. Blanton is no better than a good 3. He eats up innings and is dependable but he's not a top of the rotation starter. I agree with nrmax, that signing Silva or Lohse would be better than trading top prospects for Blanton. They are really only a touch below Blanton, albeit overpriced.

Scribble, exactly. I have no problem giving up some stud prospects for Santana or Bedard, the thing that would scare me away from Johan is just thaat looming contract you have to give him. That is exactly how i feel though, Blanton isnt enough of an improvement either over Lohse/Silva, or over what the Mets already have to warrant giving up your top young talent. I tried to type out a long response to Beauhoopman, but it just said over and over that it was comment spam, even though I didnt use anything even approaching profanity. TypeKey is a joke.

The only offer I'd accept for Konerko is that Hughes guy, a REALLY high prospect firstbasemen, or in this case your Triple A 1Bmen and another prospect